The first thing that jumped out at me, other than the great Pandemic Plunge to a low of (-$40.32) during April 2020 that led to my Weekly Column “Life Below Zero” (April 20, 2020), is the bearish spike reversal pattern established during March 2021. Note the spot-month contract extended the major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $67.98 before closing at $59.16, down $2.34 for the month. This is one of the reversal patterns I look for to indicate a trend change, in this case a long-term trend change, and certainly seems to fit with my analysis the US dollar index is in a major uptrend. But, this is not the most reliable reversal pattern in commodities, particularly if we take into account the market’s forward curve remains inverted, for the most part, reflecting long-term bullish fundamentals. And given Newsom’s Market Rule #6 (fundamentals win in the end), I don’t know that I want to be the first one in line to sell crude oil based on a less than reliable reversal pattern. Also note, monthly stochastics are above the overbought level of 80%, actually above 90% indicating a sharply overbought situation, but did not establish a bearish crossover at the end of March. This means we could see a couple more months of sideways to up movement by the market before clearer turn signals are given. All that having been said, we need to keep a close eye on crude because, after all, it did show signs of reversing. This was followed by a an OPEC-plus meeting in early April where the conclusion seemed to be a possible end of production cuts in late May. Time will tell. The key will be futures spreads and forward curves, so we need to keep a close eye on those fundamental reads for signs of change in commercial outlook.