Comex Gold, the third of the Three Kings of Commodities (with Crude Oil and Cash Corn) posted a bearish outside price range during November, include a plunge to a new 4-month low of $1,762.30 confirming the strength of its recently established major (long-term) downtrend. This new trend was first signaled by a bearish crossover by monthly stochastics above the overbought level of 80% at the close of August, and confirmed with the activity during November. The downside price range is between $1,674.60 and $1,434.60, prices marking the 38.2% and 61.8% retracemernt levels of the previous uptrend from $1,046.20 (December 2015) through the August 2020 high of $2.063.00. However, a rally over the coming months would not be out of line, a move that could be considered Wave B (second wave) of the 3-wave downtrend pattern. if we do see gold gain ground, resistance is pegged between $1,912.70 and $1,948.10.
The downtrend in gold fits my view of where we are in the market cycle in general, with crude oil and corn (along with the rest of the commodity sector) expected to follow in due time. As I mentioned in Monthly Analysis of the US dollar index, the greenback remains the outlier of the overall cycle. For now. We will see how long all this lasts.