The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) was under pressure for much of May, falling back from its April high near $8.05 and April close near $7.96 (note the proximity to the big round number of $8.00). May saw the NCPI fall to a low near $7.41 before closing near $7.47 before extending its selloff to $7.15 in early June. The activity during May completed a bearish 2-month reversal, confirming the major trend has turned down with an initial downside target near $6.02. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $2.73 (April 2020) through the April high. Note this target is near initial support for June at the previous 4-month low of $5.96. Fundamentally old-crop corn remains bullish, with the Barchart National Corn Basis Index calculated at 3.4 cents under July futures Friday afternoon.
New-crop December Corn: The 2022 contract extended the previous uptrend on the continuous (Dec corn only) monthly chart to a high of $7.66 during May before closing lower for the month. This completed a bearish spike reversal, confirming the major trend has turned down. The initial downside target is near $5.9575, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.20 (August 2020) through the May high. Given long-term fundamentals remain bullish, as indicated by the weak carry in the Dec22-to-July23 forward curve, this new downtrend should be held by the 50% retracement level near $5.43. That’s a long way down, but could come into play if the Dec23 contract has replaced the Dec22 issue at that point. For the record, Dec22 closed Friday at $6.90 with the Dec23 at $6.2675.
The Barchart National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, intrinsic value of the market) may have established its Wave 5 peak with the May high of $17.10. However, the NSPI has not completed a bearish reversal as of this writing, leaving the door open to the possibility of a new high being posted during June. Note, though monthly stochastics are well above the overbought level of 80%, opening the door to a possible bearish crossover that would signal a new major downtrend is on the way. Fundamentally old-crop soybeans remain bullish, with US available stocks-to-use approaching record tight levels. Meanwhile, the Barchart National Soybean Basis Index has been posting wild daily changes, but continues to hold above previous 5-year high weekly closes indicating the basis market is also bullish. This should limit a potential selloff by the NSPI, with initial support at the previous 4-month low of $15.19.
New-crop November Soybeans: The November 2022 contract extended the major uptrend on the continuous Nov-only monthly chart to a high of $15.6050 during May. However, Nov22 closed the month at $15.0950, down 5.25 cents for the month, opening the door to the argument it completed a bearish spike reversal while putting a peak in the previous uptrend. Much will depend on what happens during June, with early activity seeing the Nov22 contract hitting a high of $15.4625. If early buyers turn into sellers, initial support is at the previous 4-month low of $13.94. Beyond that, if the major trend has turned down, the target is near $12.7450, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $8.1225 (September 2018) through the May 2022 high. Fundamentally the market remains long-term bullish, as indicated by the Nov22-to-July23 forward curve closing Friday at an inverse of 6.0 cents.