The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) could still be considered in a major (long-term) uptrend. I know how absurd this sounds given the HWBI has dropped more than $2.50 off its May high of $13.21. However, based on its monthly chart, the HWPI has not completed a bearish reversal, and as of this writing I’m not sure of what type of bearish reversal to look for. Additionally, initial support is down at the previous 4-month low of $7.34 from February 2022. The initial downside target, even without a reversal pattern, is near $9.47. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.40 (September 2019) through the May high. Given short-term fundamentals are neutral-to-bearish, the HWPI could extend this selloff to the 50% retracement mark near $8.31. However, once May comes to an end and July begins, the previous 4-month low should move up to $9.07, in line with the 38.2% retracement level.

Similar to the HWPI, the Barchart National SRW Wheat Price Index (SWPI) has not completed a bearish technical reversal, theoretically leaving it in a major uptrend. Realistically though, given the SWPI has fallen $2.55 from its May high near $12.24 it would be easy to classify the trend as down. The difference between SRW and HRW is short-term fundamentals of the SRW market have turned bearish, as indicated by the stronger carry in the July-September futures spread. This opens the door to a possible test of the 61.8% retracment level of the previous uptrend near $7.06. Interestingly enough, if it were to happen during June it would also be a test of the previous 4-month low of $7.00 from February.

As with the other wheat indexes, the Barchart National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI) has not completed a major bearish reversal on its monthly chart. Still, the HSPI has dropped $2.17 off its May high near $13.46, with more room to the downside before reaching the first technical target near $9.90. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $4.13 (September 2019) through the May high. Fundamentally spring wheat remains bullish, meaning the SWPI should find support near the 38.2% retracement level. Once June turns to July, support at the previous 4-month low moves up to $9.38.