USDA put all U.S. wheat stocks on hand as of September 1 at 2.38 bb bushels. This was in line with one pre-report poll that I saw, with the average guess coming in at 2.32 bb. The 5-year average Q1 usage is 40.1% of what turns out to be total demand at the end of the marketing year, while the 10-year average is close at 40.2%. These averages, in combination with USDA’s latest total supply number of 3.187 bb, put my estimate for 2019-2020 total demand at 2.009 bb, creating my Q1 ending stocks (June 1) estimate of 1.178 bb (striped green column). This ending stocks estimate creates an ending stocks-to-use figure (red line) of 58.6%, a number that would be the largest dating back through the 2008-2009 marketing year.
