Grain Stocks as of September 1

  • Corn
    • 1.361 bb, down 91 mb from USDA’s September Supply and Demand guess
      • down 16 mb from the September 1, 2022 stocks number
      • Off farm stocks of 756 mb were down 111 mb from 2022’s 867 mb
        • an interesting coincidence given that was the 10-year average difference between USDA’s September 1 Grain Stocks number and its September ending stocks guess
    • The bottom line is what was talked about all last year: The US did not have the corn stocks being reported. A key reason demand was down sharply for the marketing year.
  • Soybean
    • 268 mb, up 18 mb from USDA’s September Supply and Demand guess
      • Down 6 mb from September 1, 2022 stocks number
      • Off farm stocks were down 15 mb from last year
    • The bottom line is US soybean stocks were tight, but not incredibly so in the face of a continued slowdown in demand due in large part to an ongoing trade war with the world’s largest buyer.
  • Wheat
    • Q1 stocks were 1.780 bb, up 2 roughly 2 mb from the September 1, 2022 number
      • and the largest September 1 figure since 2.158 bb in 2020
    • The bottom line: The US won’t be running out of wheat any time soon.

2023 US All Wheat Production

  • 1.812 bb, up 78 mb from USDA’s September Supply and Demand estimate of 1.734 bb.
    • This was more than double the previous 10-year average difference
  • The bottom line: Again, confirmation of the weak basis in all three markets and strong carry in Chicago (SRW).