Crude Oil
Weekly Close: $65.61, down $0.48
Trends: Major (long-term) = Up, Secondary (intermediate-term) = Down*, Minor (short-term) = Down
Analysis: The spot-month contract posted a new high of $67.98 last week before closing lower. Theoretically this established a bearish spike reversal confirming the latest in a series of bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. However, given the extremely bullish long-term fundamentals indicated by the market’s inverted forward curve traders could be hesitant to sell.
Theoretical Position: It’s possible long positions are being held, most recently on the bullish spike reversal the week of November 2, 2020 with a close of $37.14. If so, sell stops could be move to under the 4-week low of $58.59.
Distillates (heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.)
Weekly Close: $1.9675, down $0.0235
Trends: Major (long-term) = Up, Secondary (intermediate-term) = Up, Minor (short-term) = Sideways
Analysis: The market extended its major and secondary uptrends to a high of $1.9868 last week.
Theoretical Position: The most recent buy signal was the bullish key reversal the week of November 2, 2020 with a close of $1.1426. If long, sell stops could be placed below the 4-week low of $1.7743.
RBOB Gasolline
Weekly Close: $2.1500, down $0.0853
Trends: Major (long-term) = Up, Secondary (intermediate-term) = Up, Minor (short-term) = Up
Analysis: The market extended its major and secondary uptrends to a high of $2.1599 last week.
Theoretical Position: The most recent buy signal was the bullish spike reversal the week of November 2, 2020 with a close of $1.0844. If long, sell stops could be placed below the 4-week low of $1.7020.
Natural Gas
Weekly Close: $2.600, down $0.101
Trends: Major (long-term) = Up, Secondary (intermediate-term) = Sideways, Minor (short-term) = Down
Analysis: The market isn’t showing a clear major or secondary pattern at this time. However, the spot-month contract extended the minor downtrend to a new low of $2.584 last week.
Theoretical Position: There are no positions at this time.
