Gold (Dec)

Weekly Close: $1,879.90, down $25.30. Secondary Trend: Down. Dec-Feb Spread: (-$7.30) = Neutral. Market Type: 2 = Bearish. Price Distribution: NA. Target: $1,784.60. Analysis: Dec gold stubbornly held support at its 4-week low of $1,851.10, though last week’s mark of $1,859.20 is now the 4-week low. With weekly stochastics above 20% the contract is still in position to extend the secondary downtrend to the next target of $1,784.60. Theoretical Position: Short positions were established at $1,908.80.

Silver (Dec)

Weekly Close: $23.646, down $1.029. Secondary Trend: Down. Dec-Mar Spread: (-$0.153) = Neutral. Market Type: 2 = Bearish. Price Distribution: NA. Target: $21.028. Analysis: Despite rallying off its weekly low of $22.625, Dec silver still looks to be in position to extend its secondary downtrend to the next target of $21.028. Weekly stochastics remain above the oversold level of 20%. Theoretical Position: Short positions were established at $25.98.

Copper (Dec)

Weekly Close: $3.0475, down $0815. Secondary Trend: Down. Spot Spread: (-$0.0050) = Neutral. Market Type: 2 = Bearish. Price Distribution: NA. Target: $2.7527. Analysis: I’m still classifying the secondary trend as down despite the previous week’s spike to a new high of $3.2180. Initial support is at the 4-week low of $2.9205. Theoretical Position: Short positions were stopped out the previous week above the secondary high of $3.1210.

Spot U.S. Dollar Index

Weekly Close: 93.88, up 1.14. Secondary Trend: Up. Spot Spread: NA. Market Type: NA. Price Distribution: NA. Target: 94.86, 95.82, and 96.79. Analysis: All three trends (minor, secondary, and major) are now up, though daily stochastics are nearing the overbought level of 80%. Initial secondary resistance is at last week’s high, the 4-week high, of 94.10. A secondary Wave 3 would be confirmed with a move beyond the Wave 1 peak of 94.74. Theoretical Position: Some may have bought on the weekly bullish spike reversal (week of August 31), meaning long positions could’ve been established near the weekly close of 92.97. Additional longs could’ve been established on the move to a new 4-week high beyond 93.66. Stops would be moved up below the Wave 2 low of 92.47.

Euro (EUR/USD)

Weekly Close: 1.16407, down 0.02117. Secondary Trend: Down. Spot Spread: NA. Market Type: NA. Price Distribution: NA. Target: 1.1485, 1.1323, and 1.11610. Analysis: Initial support is at last week’s low, the new 4-week low, of 1.16399. Weekly stochastics remain above the oversold level of 20% indicating there is still room to the downside. Theoretical Position: Some may have established short positions near the weekly close of 1.18377 based on the secondary spike reversal. Others may have sold on the recent move to a new 4-week low below 1.17530. Buy stops could be placed above the Wave B (second wave) peak of 1.18803.

Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD)

Weekly Close: 0.75065, down 0.01115. Secondary Trend: Down. Spot Spread: NA. Market Type: NA. Price Distribution: NA. Target: 0.73595 to 0.72560. Analysis: The CAD looks to be in Wave C (third wave) of a 3-wave secondary downtrend. Weekly stochastics are still well above the oversold level of 20% indicating there is room to move lower. Theoretical Position: New short positions could’ve been established when the CAD moved below its previous 4-week low of 0.75414. Buy stops could be placed above the Wave B (second wave) peak of 0.76435.

Brazilian Real (BRL/USD)

Weekly Close: 0.17407, down 0.00382. Secondary Trend: Down. Spot Spread: NA. Market Type: NA. Price Distribution: NA. Target: None at this time. Analysis: The BRL continues to post a series of secondary lower highs and lower lows, with support at the major low of 0.16756. Initial support is at the 4-week low, last week’s low, of 0.17218. Theoretical Position: New short positions could’ve been established on the move below support at 0.17649.

Trends:

Minor (short term, daily charts)

Secondary (intermediate term, weekly charts)

Major (long term, monthly charts)