Though this is Weekly Analysis of November soybeans only, I’ve attached the contract’s short-term daily chart.
Trends:
- The major trend did not turn down at the end of May, one of the few markets a bearish spike reversal was not seen.
- The secondary trend remains down on the contract’s weekly chart, dating back to a bearish spike reversal the week of May 10.
- However, the minor trend on this daily chart turned up last week with a new 4-day high posted on Thursday, May 27
- The upside target is between $13.9350 and $14.0925, though a larger retracement of the previous minor downtrend is possible
- The contract hit a high of $13.9975 overnight
Seasonal:
- November soybeans tend to post a high weekly close
- First week of July (5-year index)
- Third week July (10-year index)
Fundamentals:
- New-crop soybean fundamentals remain bullish, as indicated by the inverted Nov21-to-July22 forward curve
- Old-crop 2020-2021 stocks-to-use are approaching the record tight situation seen at the end of the 2013-2014 marketing year, with all of Q4 remaining
Theoretical Position:
- Given the inverted forward curve, it is probably best to give new-crop soybeans room to run.
- However, some sales could be put in place at $14.09 or higher, with the contract high up at $14.61.
