Cash SRW Wheat: The National SRW Wheat Index (SRI) closed at $4.94 3/4, down 1/4 cent for the week. Cash SRW wheat remains an interesting study, still showing signs of a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend that began the week of August 6, 2018. Last week saw the SRI post a bearish outside week indicating increased selling interest could be seen over the coming weeks. Initial support is at the 4-week low of $4.77 1/2 with resistance the recent high of $5.23. National average basis weakened about a 1/4 last week, closing at 23 cents under the March contract. Position: 2018-2019 cash SRW wheat is 100% sold.
Wheat Chicago July 2019 (new-crop): The contract closed $5.28 3/4, down 3/4 cent for the week. Similar to new-crop HRW wheat, the July Chicago contract looks to be consolidating while still in Wave 3 of a 5-wave secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. The most recent signal by weekly stochastics was a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% the week of November 26, in conjunction with a key reversal by the futures contract. Support is at that week’s low of $5.17 while resistance is pegged at the Wave 1 high of $5.49 1/2 from the week of December 10. Position: 2019 production is 50% covered at $5.91 from the week of August 6, 2018.
Wheat Kansas City March 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at $5.06, up 1 1/2 cents for the week. Though it continues to consolidate, old-crop KC (HRW) wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend. Initial resistance is at now at the 4-week high of $5.11 then the Wave 1 peak of $5.24 1/2 from the week of December 10. Weekly stochastics remain bullish above the oversold level of 20%, with the most recent signal a crossover below the oversold level of 20% the week of November 26. The March-to-May futures spread needs to be watched closely as it trimmed 2 1/4 cents from its carry last week to close at 9 1/4 cents. The spread looks to be in Wave 5 of its own secondary uptrend. Position: 2018 production is 100% sold.
Wheat Kansas City July 2019 (new-crop): The contract closed $5.24 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents for the week. Similar to old-crop, new-crop July KC wheat continues to consolidate within a Wave 3 rally of its secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend. However, the new-crop contract looks more vulnerable to increased selling interest with support at the previous low of $5.08 3/4 from the week of November 26. Initial resistance is the Wave 1 high of $5.43 1/4, then near $5.58 1/2. The latter marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from the high of $6.40 (week of August 6). The July-to-December spread closed at a carry of 28 1/4 cents, 1/4 cent weaker than the previous week. Position: 2019 production is 50% covered at an average of $5.84 July futures.
Wheat Minneapolis March 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at $5.74 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents for the week. March Minneapolis wheat posted a bullish outside range last week, indicating buying interest could grow stronger over the coming weeks. Initial resistance is the 4-week high, last week’s high, of $5.774 3/4. Given where the contract closed last Friday it should break resistance early this coming week. The next target would be $5.89 1/2, the high from the week of December 10. Position: 2018 production is 100% sold.
Wheat Minneapolis September 2019 (new-crop): The contract closed $5.92 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents for the week. New-crop HRS wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend with initial resistance at the 4-week high of $5.94 1/4. Next resistance is the previous high of $6.05 1/2 from the week of December 17, part of a bearish outside weekly range. Position: 2019 production is 50% covered at $6.46 1/2 from the week of August 6.