DNAI Algorithm

  • Weekly: Long/Reduce
  • Previous Week: Long/Neutral

Theoretical Positions

  • Investors (see Monthly Analysis)
    • Long December 2026 near $4.6225
    • Based on Volatility, Seasonality, and Price Distribution, we are looking for an opportunity to sell Dec26 call options
      • Either Dec26 or short-dated new-crop options
  • The in-house algorithm has moved to a long futures position. 

Dec26 short futures hedges

  • Some of these positions may have been reestablished near the round numbers from $4.60 through $4.90
  • Based on Volatility, Seasonality, and Price Distribution, we are looking for an opportunity to sell Dec26 call options
    • Either Dec26 or short-dated new-crop options

Trend Analysis

  • The July contract completed a bearish key reversal last week. This could lead to a seasonal secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend (see below).
  • The December issue also completed a bearish key reversal last week, also indicating it could be moving into its seasonal secondary downtrend.

The latest Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders held a net-long futures position of 433,384 contracts, an increase of 92,644 contracts as of Tuesday, May 5.

  • This included an increase in long futures of 72,596 contracts
  • And a decrease in short futures by 20,048 contracts
  • This is a bullish change in position given it is driven by new long positions

Seasonal Analysis

  • Bearish
  • The markets (cash, futures) tend to trend down. See Seasonal Analysis: Corn for further discussion.

Fundamental Analysis (New-Crop)

  • The September*-December futures spread (not shown on chart) closed Friday covering 51%
    • as compared to the previous Friday’s 46%
  • The December-March  futures spread closed Friday covering 45%
    • as compared to the previous Friday’s 42%
  • The March-May futures spread closed Friday covering 33%
    • as compared to the previous Friday’s 33%
  • The May-July  futures spread closed Friday covering 18%
    • as compared to the previous Friday’s 16%
  • The December-July forward curve closed Friday covering 34%
    • as compared to the previous Friday’s 32%

The bottom line is new-crop corn remains fundamentally neutral-to-bullish long-term.

*Given the pace of 2026 spring planting season, the September issue could be considered a new-crop contract.