Theoretical Positions: Traders could have buy stops above the previous 4-week high of $64.87, with sell stops below the previous 5-week low of $55.30.
Seasonal Analysis: Neutral
- The spot-month contract closed Friday at $62.49, up $1.47 for the week.
- While WTI crude oil has not confirmed a move to a secondary uptrend, the structure of the market is growing more bullish (see below)
The Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders held a net-long futures position of 185,301 contracts, an increase of 9,873 contracts as of Tuesday, May 13.
- This included a decrease in long futures by 6,325 contracts
- And a decrease in short futures by 16,198contracts
Fundamentals: Bullish
- The market’s forward curve continues to show a backwardation/inverse through the Jan26-Feb26 futures spread
- The spot futures spread closed at a backwardation of $0.52 Friday
- as compared to the previous Friday’s settlement at a backwardation of $0.44
