This analysis is based on long-term monthly charts. We know day-to-day, week-to-week, and even month-to-month the markets will change based on social media posts from the US president and subsequent headlines. As I’ve said before, we’ve reached a point where technical and fundamental analysis do not matter.
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Brent crude (QA): The sot-month futures contract extended the markets’s major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $119.40 during March, its highest price since June 2022. The spot-month contract closed March at $103.97, up $31.10 (42.7%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investors went long the market during January or February on bullish technical breakouts.
WTI crude oil (CL): The sot-month contract extended the market’s major uptrend to a high of $119.48 during March, its highest price since June 2022. The spot-month contract closed March at $101.38, up $34.36 (51.3%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investors went long the market during January or February on bullish technical breakouts.
Distillates (HO, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.): The spot-month contract extended the market’s major uptrend to a high of $4.8360 during March, its highest price since April 2022. The spot-month contract closed March at $4.1138, up $1.5178 (58.5%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors may have gone long during February when the spot-month contract moved above the previous high of $2.74 from June 2025.
RBOB gasoline (RB): The spot-month contract extended its major uptrend to a high of $3.4079 during March, its highest prices since July 2022. The spot-month contract closed March at $3.2039, up 91.84 cents (40.2%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors could be long the market near the January settlement of $1.9422.
Natural Gas (NG): It could still be argued the spot-month contract posted a Wave 5 high during December 2025 as part of a key bearish reversal. If so, then the market would be considered in a major downtrend, from a technical point of view. Theoretical Positions: I would think investors would be on the sidelines, but it is hard to say.
