Corn: Still a Downtrend

2022-01-02T12:40:29-06:00January 2nd, 2022|Monthly|

The cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) looks set to begin Wave C (third wave) of its 3-wave major (long-term) downtrend pattern. The recent secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend looks to be Wave B (second wave) of [...]

Soybeans: The Next Wave

2022-01-02T12:35:33-06:00January 2nd, 2022|Monthly|

The cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend with the next target at $10.7740. The NSPI closed December calculated at $12.9589. The NSPI has been in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, [...]

HRS Wheat: Continued Pressure

2022-01-02T12:15:02-06:00January 2nd, 2022|Monthly|

The cmdty National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI, weighted national average cash price) continued its selloff during December. This extended the market's major (long-term) downtrend that began with the completion of a bearish 2-month reversal at the end of November. [...]

S&P 500: Impressive

2022-01-02T11:10:49-06:00January 2nd, 2022|Monthly|

The S&P 500 Index ($INX) posted an impressive end of 2021, registering 70 record high daily closes over the course of the year, the second most for a 1-year period being 1995's 77 closing record highs. Undoubtedly the major (long-term) [...]

Euro: Holding Pattern

2022-01-02T10:43:25-06:00January 2nd, 2022|Monthly|

The euro continues to indicate the previous major (long-term) downtrend came to an end with the November low of 1.11863. November saw the euro rally off that low to close above its downside target price of 1.12905 with activity during [...]

Corn: The Pieces Fit

2021-12-01T09:59:17-06:00December 1st, 2021|Monthly|

The major (long-term) trend of the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains down, a move that began with a bearish spike reversal this past May that confirmed a bearish crossover by monthly stochastics above [...]

HRW Wheat: Top Heavy

2021-12-01T09:41:42-06:00December 1st, 2021|Monthly|

The monthly chart for the cmdty National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) shows the market could be getting top heavy after hitting a lofty peak of $8.63 during November. The final monthly calculation of $8.1156 [...]

Gold: A Whole Lotta Nothing

2021-12-01T07:21:15-06:00December 1st, 2021|Monthly|

Despite being one of the Three Kings of Commodities, gold isn't showing me much on is long-term continuous monthly chart. The February contract is stuck in the same major (long-term) sideways trend marked by covering trendlines. It's interesting to note [...]

Euro: Time for a Change

2021-12-01T05:01:47-06:00December 1st, 2021|Monthly|

The euro looks to have completed its 3-wave major (long-term) downtrend durning November as it fell to a low of 1.11863 before closing the month at 1.13351. Recall from previous analysis the downside target was 1.12905, the 61.8% retracement level [...]

Corn: A Clear Picture

2021-10-31T10:43:24-05:00October 31st, 2021|Monthly|

My monthly analysis of the key grain and oilseed markets will focus on the cmdty National Price Indexes (weighted national average cash prices). Recall from numerous previous discussions I view these as the intrinsic value of the individual markets meaning [...]

HRS Wheat: Going Vertical

2021-10-31T09:58:23-05:00October 31st, 2021|Monthly|

My monthly analysis of the key grain and oilseed markets will focus on the cmdty National Price Indexes (weighted national average cash prices). Recall from numerous previous discussions I view these as the intrinsic value of the individual markets meaning [...]

Gold: A Tough Call

2021-10-31T09:01:08-05:00October 31st, 2021|Monthly|

I'm not getting a great read off the monthly chart for December gold, meaning it would not be a surprise if the contract continues to move sideways for another couple months. However, the most recent major (long-term) pattern is a [...]

Euro: Getting Closer

2021-10-03T11:22:37-05:00October 3rd, 2021|Monthly|

The monthly chart for the euro is interesting after the major (long-term) downtrend was extended to a low of 1.15625 during September. The next target of 1.14926 is now within sight, and monthly stochastics have been pulled below the oversold [...]

Cash Corn: Slip Sliding Away

2021-09-01T16:40:49-05:00September 1st, 2021|Monthly|

The cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a new 4-month low of $5.7059 during August. However, given the monthly settlement of $5.7993 there was a strong likelihood this would [...]

Distillates: Harbor Lights

2021-09-01T11:10:08-05:00September 1st, 2021|Monthly|

Distillates (heating oil, jet fuel, diesel fuel, etc.), also known as New York Harbor ULSD (ultra-low sulfur diesel), finally looks to be nearing a major (long-term) top on its continuous monthly chart. As August came to an end the spot-month contract [...]

Canadian Dollar: Consistent

2021-09-01T09:42:03-05:00September 1st, 2021|Monthly|

The Canadian dollar (CADUSD) closed out another month rallying off its low, though not enough to change its major (long-term) downtrend. The CADUSD finished august at 0.79256, down 0.00909 for the month, after posting a low of 0.77223.Note this was [...]

December Corn: Still Topped

2021-08-01T16:19:28-05:00August 1st, 2021|Monthly|

The continuous monthly chart for the December corn contract only shows the 2021 issue posted a bearish spike reversal during May, confirming the major (long-term) trend has tuned down. This confirmed the bearish crossover by monthly stochastic at the end [...]

Gold: A Jumbled Downtrend

2021-08-01T14:47:15-05:00August 1st, 2021|Monthly|

Though the technical picture is a bit jumbled on its long-term monthly chart, I still see a major downtrend in gold. The nearby futures contract posted a new 4-month low during November 2020, confirming the bearish crossover by monthly stochastics [...]

Euro: Still Down

2021-08-01T14:32:21-05:00August 1st, 2021|Monthly|

While the argument could be made the euro is stuck in a sideways range between its January 2021 high of 1.23490 and March 2021 low of 1.17035. However, a look at its monthly chart and I still see a major [...]

The Euro: Still the Same

2021-06-01T07:37:55-05:00June 1st, 2021|Monthly|

I waited until the official end of May before posting my monthly analysis of currencies since markets outside the US were open, and trade in currencies never takes a day off. The major (long-term) trend of the euro still looks [...]

Live Cattle: No Changes

2021-05-30T09:57:53-05:00May 30th, 2021|Monthly|

The live cattle market followed-through on its key bearish reversal from April with the nearby futures contract falling to a low of $112.575 during May. The monthly close by June at $115.875 was down $0.70 for the month, with the [...]

Cash HRW Wheat: Up, For Now

2021-05-02T16:18:43-05:00May 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

With winter wheat harvest on the distant horizon, the monthly chart for the cmdty National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWBI, weighted national average cash price) shows an extended major (long-term) uptrend. After testing support at the March low of $5.2129, [...]

Crude Oil: Rule #6, Again

2021-05-02T15:53:37-05:00May 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

From a technical point of view, I want to be bearish crude oil. The market posted a bearish spike reversal during the month of March, indicating its major (long-term) trend had turned down, before rallying again during April. The spot-month [...]

Live Cattle: Inception

2021-05-02T15:37:45-05:00May 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

As the final scene of April faded to black, the live cattle market had spun its totem, by all indications a top (just like DiCaprio's character in the 2010 movie "Inception"), though the end result looks to be a nightmare [...]

Lean Hogs: Pigs Still Fly

2021-05-02T14:56:27-05:00May 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

The continuous monthly chart (nearby futures contract) for lean hogs shows the market to be still be flying high in a major (long-term) uptrend. The nearby May futures contract closed at $110.125 after posting a monthly high of $111.775. Fundamentally [...]

Euro: The Next Wave

2021-05-02T13:52:28-05:00May 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

I've attached the euro's weekly chart to this monthly analysis, to show the different waves that are in play at this time. The major (long-term) trend remains down, with the recent secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend looking to be Wave B (second [...]

December Corn: Chugging Along

2021-04-05T07:27:28-05:00April 5th, 2021|Monthly|

As mentioned in Seasonal Analysis Monday morning, the December 2021 contract has extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $4.93 in early April, despite monthly stochastics approaching 100% reflecting a sharply overbought situation. Still, the contract is chugging [...]

Silver: No Clear Path

2021-04-02T11:27:09-05:00April 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

The continuous monthly chart for COMEX silver futures shows us no clear major (long-term) trend. Yes, the market continues to fall back from its peak of $30.16 posted during February, with March hitting a low of $23.965, but the nearby [...]

Gold: Down, But Not Out

2021-04-02T11:21:00-05:00April 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

COMEX gold extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of $1,673.70 during March before closing at $1,713.80, down $14.30 for the month. Note the low was a test of the initial major downside target of $1,674.60, a price marking [...]

Cash Soybeans: A Big Wave

2021-02-28T12:52:02-06:00February 28th, 2021|Monthly|

Similar to corn, I'm looking at the long-term monthly chart for a different cash soybean index due to longer history. At the end of February, this index was calculated at $13.6541 (the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index came in at [...]

Cash Corn: No Turn Yet

2021-02-28T12:08:06-06:00February 28th, 2021|Monthly|

Once again, I'm looking at the long long-term month chart for a different cash corn index due to more history. Here we see the cash index calculated at $5.3529 at the end of February (as compared to the cmdty National [...]

S&P 500: Why Not

2021-01-31T14:41:58-06:00January 31st, 2021|Monthly|

To close out the January round of Monthly Analysis, let's slip further into the land Will Have to See It to Believe It. Some of you might recall my monthly post on the S&P 500 from October 1, "If It [...]

Gold: Sign of the Times

2020-12-01T19:37:20-06:00December 1st, 2020|Monthly|

Comex Gold, the third of the Three Kings of Commodities (with Crude Oil and Cash Corn) posted a bearish outside price range during November, include a plunge to a new 4-month low of $1,762.30 confirming the strength of its recently [...]

S&P 500: Super Duper

2020-12-01T19:14:16-06:00December 1st, 2020|Monthly|

The S&P 500 Index ($IPX) closed November at 3,621.63, up 351.67 points or 10.8% for the month. While an incredible move, it still paled in comparison to the 11.8% gains posted by both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq, [...]

US T-Bonds: Ring of Fire

2020-12-01T18:52:17-06:00December 1st, 2020|Monthly|

Johnny Cash's famous song best describes the major (long-term) trend of US 30-year T-Bonds (ZB), "...fell into a burning ring of fire. ...went down, down, down and the flames went higher..." While there are a number of markets with unclear [...]

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