The Euro: Still the Same

2021-06-01T07:37:55-05:00June 1st, 2021|Monthly|

I waited until the official end of May before posting my monthly analysis of currencies since markets outside the US were open, and trade in currencies never takes a day off. The major (long-term) trend of the euro still looks [...]

Live Cattle: No Changes

2021-05-30T09:57:53-05:00May 30th, 2021|Monthly|

The live cattle market followed-through on its key bearish reversal from April with the nearby futures contract falling to a low of $112.575 during May. The monthly close by June at $115.875 was down $0.70 for the month, with the [...]

Cash HRW Wheat: Up, For Now

2021-05-02T16:18:43-05:00May 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

With winter wheat harvest on the distant horizon, the monthly chart for the cmdty National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWBI, weighted national average cash price) shows an extended major (long-term) uptrend. After testing support at the March low of $5.2129, [...]

Crude Oil: Rule #6, Again

2021-05-02T15:53:37-05:00May 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

From a technical point of view, I want to be bearish crude oil. The market posted a bearish spike reversal during the month of March, indicating its major (long-term) trend had turned down, before rallying again during April. The spot-month [...]

Live Cattle: Inception

2021-05-02T15:37:45-05:00May 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

As the final scene of April faded to black, the live cattle market had spun its totem, by all indications a top (just like DiCaprio's character in the 2010 movie "Inception"), though the end result looks to be a nightmare [...]

Lean Hogs: Pigs Still Fly

2021-05-02T14:56:27-05:00May 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

The continuous monthly chart (nearby futures contract) for lean hogs shows the market to be still be flying high in a major (long-term) uptrend. The nearby May futures contract closed at $110.125 after posting a monthly high of $111.775. Fundamentally [...]

Euro: The Next Wave

2021-05-02T13:52:28-05:00May 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

I've attached the euro's weekly chart to this monthly analysis, to show the different waves that are in play at this time. The major (long-term) trend remains down, with the recent secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend looking to be Wave B (second [...]

December Corn: Chugging Along

2021-04-05T07:27:28-05:00April 5th, 2021|Monthly|

As mentioned in Seasonal Analysis Monday morning, the December 2021 contract has extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $4.93 in early April, despite monthly stochastics approaching 100% reflecting a sharply overbought situation. Still, the contract is chugging [...]

Silver: No Clear Path

2021-04-02T11:27:09-05:00April 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

The continuous monthly chart for COMEX silver futures shows us no clear major (long-term) trend. Yes, the market continues to fall back from its peak of $30.16 posted during February, with March hitting a low of $23.965, but the nearby [...]

Gold: Down, But Not Out

2021-04-02T11:21:00-05:00April 2nd, 2021|Monthly|

COMEX gold extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of $1,673.70 during March before closing at $1,713.80, down $14.30 for the month. Note the low was a test of the initial major downside target of $1,674.60, a price marking [...]

Cash Soybeans: A Big Wave

2021-02-28T12:52:02-06:00February 28th, 2021|Monthly|

Similar to corn, I'm looking at the long-term monthly chart for a different cash soybean index due to longer history. At the end of February, this index was calculated at $13.6541 (the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index came in at [...]

Cash Corn: No Turn Yet

2021-02-28T12:08:06-06:00February 28th, 2021|Monthly|

Once again, I'm looking at the long long-term month chart for a different cash corn index due to more history. Here we see the cash index calculated at $5.3529 at the end of February (as compared to the cmdty National [...]

S&P 500: Why Not

2021-01-31T14:41:58-06:00January 31st, 2021|Monthly|

To close out the January round of Monthly Analysis, let's slip further into the land Will Have to See It to Believe It. Some of you might recall my monthly post on the S&P 500 from October 1, "If It [...]

Gold: Sign of the Times

2020-12-01T19:37:20-06:00December 1st, 2020|Monthly|

Comex Gold, the third of the Three Kings of Commodities (with Crude Oil and Cash Corn) posted a bearish outside price range during November, include a plunge to a new 4-month low of $1,762.30 confirming the strength of its recently [...]

S&P 500: Super Duper

2020-12-01T19:14:16-06:00December 1st, 2020|Monthly|

The S&P 500 Index ($IPX) closed November at 3,621.63, up 351.67 points or 10.8% for the month. While an incredible move, it still paled in comparison to the 11.8% gains posted by both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq, [...]

US T-Bonds: Ring of Fire

2020-12-01T18:52:17-06:00December 1st, 2020|Monthly|

Johnny Cash's famous song best describes the major (long-term) trend of US 30-year T-Bonds (ZB), "...fell into a burning ring of fire. ...went down, down, down and the flames went higher..." While there are a number of markets with unclear [...]

Euro: A Change of Plans

2020-12-01T17:35:22-06:00December 1st, 2020|Monthly|

As you likely recall, I've been a euro bear (and US dollar index bull) for a number of months now. However, if we remove the noise from a standard monthly price chart and focus on monthly closes only, November's settlement [...]

Brazilian Real: Real Low

2020-12-01T17:14:32-06:00December 1st, 2020|Monthly|

The Brazilian real (BRL) closed the month of November at 0.18748, just off its recent major low monthly close of 0.17407 posted the month before. The reality of this long-term monthly chart is it is hard to make an argument, [...]

US T-Bonds: The Weakening

2020-10-31T14:09:30-05:00October 31st, 2020|Monthly|

The December US T-bond contract fell to a new 4-month low of 171-22 during October, extending the major (long-term) downtrend before closing the month at 172.15. The downside target area is between 165-11 and 154-10, and with monthly stochastics still [...]

The Euro: Down Time

2020-10-01T10:55:56-05:00October 1st, 2020|Monthly|

A look at the long-term monthly chart for the euro (priced in US dollars, EURUSD) shows as clear a bearish key reversal as you will dry in any market. Early in September the EURUS posted a new major high of [...]

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