Corn Cash Index: The monthly close-only chart of the cash index I track for basis and monthly available stocks-to-use provides the clearest picture of a major (long-term) trend for the market in general. The index continues to follow a similar path [...]

Soybean Cash Index: The monthly close-only chart of the cash index I track for basis and monthly available stocks-to-use continues to show a classic head and shoulder top pattern. The strong rally at the end of June looks to be [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) moved back into a major (long-term) downtrend as it posted a new low of $6.4658 during August. It's possible this turns out to be a classic head-fake [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): It's a tough call on the monthly chart for the live cattle cash index. August saw a second consecutive month of a standoff, closing at $179.00. Given monthly stochastics have completed a bearish crossover above the [...]

Brent crude (QA) is in a major (long-term) uptrend after posting a new 4-month high of $88.10 during August. The initial upside target is near $94.50, the 38.2% rertracment level of the previous major downtrend from $137.00 (March 2022) through [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend. Seasonally, the S&P tends to move lower during August and September before rallying through the end of the year.. Theoretical Positions: Long from the October 2022 close of 3,871.98 [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY): I'm going to call this a major (long-term) sideways trend for now, something that looks to have become a familiar theme at the end of August. The range heading into September was between the previous [...]

Sticking with last month's Analysis: The monthly close-only chart of the cash index I track for basis and monthly available stocks-to-use continues to follow a similar path to what was laid out between the 2010-2011 to 2013-2014 marketing years, with [...]

Sticking with the Analysis from last month: The monthly close-only chart of the cash index I track for basis and monthly available stocks-to-use continues to show a classic head and shoulder top pattern. The strong rally at the end of [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) continued to consolidate during July after posting a bullish outside range during May. The index remains oversold with stochastics establishing a bullish crossover at the end of [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): Technically, the cash market remains in a major (long-term) uptrend as it closed July at $179.00. However, the cash market is looking top heavy as it consolidated within the wide June range. Monthly stochastics remain near [...]

Brent crude (QA) looks to be in a major (long-term) sideways trend between the previous 4-month high of $87.49 and 4-month low of $68.20. A bullish reversal would be completed with a move to a new 4-month high. Monthly stochastics completed [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend, extending the move during July to 4,607.07. After 5 consecutive higher monthly closes, the S&P would be expected to take a breather at some point. Theoretical Positions: Long from [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend on its monthly chart with a downside target near 99.00. The USDX posted a low of 99.58 during July before rallying to close at 101.86. Monthly stochaatics were partially [...]

Changing it up a bit: The mostly close-only chart of the cash index I track for basis and monthly available stocks-to-use continues to follow a similar path to what was laid out between the 2010-2011 to 2013-2014 marketing years. This [...]

Changing it up a bit: The monthly close-only chart of the cash index I track for basis and monthly available stocks-to-use continues to show a classic head and shoulder top pattern. The strong rally at the end of June looks [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) consolidated during June after posting a bullish outside range during May. The index remains oversold with stochastics establishing a bullish crossover at the end of June. Theoretical [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): Technically, the cash market remains in a major (long-term) uptrend as it jumped to a new high of $190.00 early in June. However, by the end of the month it was back to $174.00. While this [...]

Brent crude (QA) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend, though the spot-month did consolidate during June. Monthly stochastics completed another bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, a signal the major trend could soon turn up. Theoretical Positions: Short from [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend, posting a new 4-month high during June and the highest monthly close (4,150.38) since March 2022 (4,530.41). Theoretical Positions: Long from the October 2022 close of 3,871.98 with a [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend on its monthly chart with a downside target near 99.00. However, the $DXY continues to hold above support at the double-bottom low near 100.80. Resistance remains at the previous [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): The cash market remains in a major (long-term) uptrend, though it did post an inside range during May. Monthly stochastics established another bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%, a signal the major trend could [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend to a low of $5.7818 during May before closing at $6.2820, up 10.37 cents for the month. Technically, this completed a bullish [...]

The Barchart National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, intrinsic value of the market) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. Wave 8 (the final wave of a 5-wave uptrend and 3-wave downtrend cycle) took out the Wave 6 low of $12.9987 [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) continues to go back and forth monthly. However, the index did post a bullish outside range during May before closing higher for the month, indicating the major [...]

Brent crude (QA) rejoined its major (long-term) downtrend as it moved to a new 4-month low of $68.20 during May. Monthly stochastics remain below the oversold level of 20%, leaving the market in position for a potential bullish reversal over [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend, posting a new 4-month high during May. Theoretical Positions: Long from the October 2022 close of 3,871.98 with a stop below the March 2023 low of 3,808.86. The Dow [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend on its monthly chart with a downside target near 99.00. While the $DXY rallied during May, monthly stochastics above the oversold level of 20% indicate there is time and [...]

The Barchart National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, intrinsic value of the market) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. Wave 8 (the final wave of a 5-wave uptrend and 3-wave downtrend cycle) is expected to take out the Wave 6 [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): The cash market remains in a major (long-term) uptrend as it hit a new high of $175.00 during April. Theoretical Positions: Traders would likely be long the market with a stop below the previous 4-month low [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend to a low of $6.0483 during April. This was a test of support at $6.0174, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend with initial resistance at the February high of 4,195.44. Theoretical Positions: Long from the October 2022 close of 3,871.98 with a stop below the January low of 3,794.33. The [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend on its monthly chart with a downside target near 99.00. The index extended its trend to a low of 100.79 during April, and with monthly stochastics still above the [...]

Brent crude (QA) looks to be in the process of rolling out of its major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. Monthly stochastics established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% at the end of April, a signal the major trend [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) moved back into a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend as it took out the March low of $7.3522. With the HWPI testing the downside target of $7.1520 and [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) became more complicated during March as it posted a bearish spike reversal. The chart is thrown off by the spike rally registered during January, a move that didn't [...]

The Barchart National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, intrinsic value of the market) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend despite the higher close to March. With monthly stochastics above the oversold level of 20% there is still time and space [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) completed its major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend and rolled into a 5-wave uptrend during March. This was done as the HWPI completed a bullish spike reversal that took [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): The cash market remains in a major (long-term) uptrend as it hit a new high of $165.00 during March. The market’s reported all-time high from November 2014 is at $173.36. Theoretical Positions: Traders would likely be long [...]

Brent crude (QA) still looks to be in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend, with the spot-month contract extending the move to a low of $70.13 before rallying to close out the month. This was enough to pull monthly stochastics below [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend with initial resistance at the February high of 4,195.44. Theoretical Positions: Long from the October close of 3,871.98 with a stop below the October low of 3,491.58. The Dow [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend on its monthly chart with a downside target of 99.11. Meanwhile, the secondary (intermediate-term) and minor (short-term) trends still look to be up. Theoretical Positions: Traders may have shorted the dollar [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend that began with a bearish 2-month reversal during April and May 2022 (red arrow on chart). The next downside target for [...]

The Barchart National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, intrinsic value of the market) remains in a major 3-wave downtrend with the ongoing rally off the Wave A low (October) of $12.9987 looking to be Wave 7 (usually Wave B). The NSPI [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. The HWPI is expected to take out the Wave A (first wave) low of $7.6159 (August 2022) with the next [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): The cash market remains in a major (long-term) uptrend as it hit a new high of $163.56 at the end of February. As a friend in the industry put it Tuesday, live cattle are in "pretty [...]

Brent crude (QA) still looks to be in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend, though the spot-month contract continues to consolidate above the December 2022 low of $75.11. This indicates the market may be building a long-term bottom, particularly with monthly [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend. February saw the $INX post a bearish spike reversal indicating it had moved into a Wave 2 selloff with a secondary (intermediate-term) target area between 3,903.17 and 3,843.51 and [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend on its monthly chart. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on the weekly chart looks to be Wave B (second wave) of the major 3-wave pattern. The secondary upside target is [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend that began with a bearish 2-month reversal during April and May 2022 (red arrow on chart). The next downside target for [...]

The Barchart National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, intrinsic value of the market) remains in a major 3-wave downtrend with the ongoing rally off the Wave A low (October) of $12.9987 looking to be Wave B. The NSPI hit a high [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. January saw the HWPI post a low of $7.6673, holding above the Wave A low of $7.6159. It's possible this [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): The cash market remains in a major (long-term) up as it hit a new high of $157 during January before closing at $156. Based on monthly stochastics the live cattle cash index remains sharply overbought and [...]

Brent crude (QA) still looks to be in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. However, the spot-month contract spent the month of January consolidating within the December range meaning a test of the December low of $75.11 during February could be [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend as the index tested resistance at its previous 4-month high of 4,119.28 (September 2022) with a January high of 4,094.21. The new 4-month high is the December mark of [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of 101.50 during January before closing at 102.10, down 1.42 for the month. The next downside target is at 98.97, the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend that began with a bearish 2-month reversal during April and May 2022 (red arrow on chart). The next downside target for [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. Wave C (third wave) is expected to take out the Wave A (first wave) low of $7.6159 from August. The [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): The cash market remains in a major (long-term) up as it held near the high of $155 during December. Based on monthly stochastics the live cattle cash index remains sharply overbought. Theoretical Positions: Traders would likely [...]

Brent crude (QA) still looks to be in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. The spot-month contract posted a low of 75.11 during December, a test of  the target at $76.50. This price marks the 50% retraecment level of the previous [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend despite the lower close to December. The secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend looks to be Wave 2 of the major pattern, with a downside target area between 3,796.05 and 3,692.53. Wave [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of 103.39 during December. The next downside target is 101.99, the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from 89.20 (January 2021) through the high of 114.78 [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend that began with a bearish 2-month reversal during April and May 2022 (red arrow on chart). The next downside target for the [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. Wave C (third wave) is expected to take out the Wave A (first wave) low of $7.6159 from August. The [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): The cash market extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $155 during November and closed at that mark. This was the highest monthly close since May 2015 at $160.83. Based on monthly stochastics, the [...]

Brent crude (QA) still looks to be in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend despite the higher close to October. The spot-month contract finished at $92.81 as compared to September’s settlement of $85.14. Given the market is still showing bullish fundamentals, [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) extended its new major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend to a high of 4,080.11 during November. At some point, Wave 1 will peak setting the stage for a Wave 2 selloff that could last for 3 months and [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) confirmed a new major (long-term) downtrend in early December as it moved to a new 4-month low below 104.64. However, $DXY is also nearing a possible reversal into a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) looks to be in Wave B (second wave) of its major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. Based on the market's bullish fundamentals, both national average basis (short-term) and futures spreads [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) rstill looks to be in Wave B (second wave) of its 3-wave major (long-term) downtrend. October saw the HWPI post a high of $9.96, still short of [...]

Brent crude (QA) still looks to be in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend despite the higher close to October. The spot-month contract finished at $92.81 as compared to September's settlement of $85.14. Given the market is still showing bullish fundamentals, [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) extended Wave 3 of its 3-wave major (long-term) downtrend to a low of 3,491.58 early in October before abruptly changing course. But the time the dust had settled on October 31 the $INX had posted a [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) consolidated during October, staying well within September's wide range before closing lower for the month. Therefore, no clear reversal pattern has been completed to confirm a new major (long-term) downtrend indicated by the most recent [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a new 4-month low near $6.37 before rallying back to $6.61 to close out September. While it would not be surprising to [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend. However, the HWPI extended its rally off the August low near $7.62, a mark that was part of a bullish spike [...]

Brent crude (QA) extended its major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend to a low of $83.63 during September. The next downside target is $76.50, the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $16.00 (April 2020) through the high of $137.00 (March [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) saw Wave C (third wave) of its 3-wave major (long-term) downtrend extend past the Wave A (first wave) low of 3,636.87 from June. By definition, this completes the 3-wave pattern through the monthly close (3,585.62) near [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of 114.78 during September. However, by falling back to close at 112.12, monthly stochastics established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. This is again [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) consolidated during August before closing at $7.1363, up 14.75 cents for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains down after the NCPI completed a bearish 2-month reversal at [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of $7.6159 during August before rallying to close at $8.6516. This was 40.58 cents higher for the month. If [...]

Brent crude (QA) extended its major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend to a low of $91.52 during August. The next downside target is $90.78, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $16.00 (April 2020) through the high of $137.00 (March [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) looks to have possibly posted the peak of Wave B (second wave) of its major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. The index hit a high of 4,325.28 during August before closing the month at 3,954.53, down 175.29 for [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) closed the month of August at 108.70, up 2.80 for the month. This after extending its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of 109.48, taking out the July peak of 109.29. While the argument could've [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of new 4-month low of $6.4725 during July before rallying into the end of the month. This leaves the NCPI [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of $7.6343 during July, a sharp sell off for the month but holding above the target of $7.1520. This [...]

Brent crude (QA) confirmed a new major (long-term) downtrend as it fell to a new 4-month low of $94.50 during July. this followed the bearish spike reversal posted during June and the most recent bearish crossover by monthly stochastics below [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) looks to have moved into Wave B (second wave) of its 3-wave major (long-term) downtrend. Wave A (first wave) looks to have bottomed out with the June low of 3,636.87 before the $INX posted an inside [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of 109.29 during July. This was the highest the index has been since September 2002 when it reached 109.77. And while the $DXY finished the month back at [...]