The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend that began with a bearish 2-month reversal during April and May 2022 (red arrow on chart). The next downside target for [...]

The Barchart National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, intrinsic value of the market) remains in a major 3-wave downtrend with the ongoing rally off the Wave A low (October) of $12.9987 looking to be Wave 7 (usually Wave B). The NSPI [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. The HWPI is expected to take out the Wave A (first wave) low of $7.6159 (August 2022) with the next [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): The cash market remains in a major (long-term) uptrend as it hit a new high of $163.56 at the end of February. As a friend in the industry put it Tuesday, live cattle are in "pretty [...]

Brent crude (QA) still looks to be in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend, though the spot-month contract continues to consolidate above the December 2022 low of $75.11. This indicates the market may be building a long-term bottom, particularly with monthly [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend. February saw the $INX post a bearish spike reversal indicating it had moved into a Wave 2 selloff with a secondary (intermediate-term) target area between 3,903.17 and 3,843.51 and [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend on its monthly chart. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on the weekly chart looks to be Wave B (second wave) of the major 3-wave pattern. The secondary upside target is [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend that began with a bearish 2-month reversal during April and May 2022 (red arrow on chart). The next downside target for [...]

The Barchart National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, intrinsic value of the market) remains in a major 3-wave downtrend with the ongoing rally off the Wave A low (October) of $12.9987 looking to be Wave B. The NSPI hit a high [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. January saw the HWPI post a low of $7.6673, holding above the Wave A low of $7.6159. It's possible this [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): The cash market remains in a major (long-term) up as it hit a new high of $157 during January before closing at $156. Based on monthly stochastics the live cattle cash index remains sharply overbought and [...]

Brent crude (QA) still looks to be in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. However, the spot-month contract spent the month of January consolidating within the December range meaning a test of the December low of $75.11 during February could be [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend as the index tested resistance at its previous 4-month high of 4,119.28 (September 2022) with a January high of 4,094.21. The new 4-month high is the December mark of [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of 101.50 during January before closing at 102.10, down 1.42 for the month. The next downside target is at 98.97, the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend that began with a bearish 2-month reversal during April and May 2022 (red arrow on chart). The next downside target for [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. Wave C (third wave) is expected to take out the Wave A (first wave) low of $7.6159 from August. The [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): The cash market remains in a major (long-term) up as it held near the high of $155 during December. Based on monthly stochastics the live cattle cash index remains sharply overbought. Theoretical Positions: Traders would likely [...]

Brent crude (QA) still looks to be in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. The spot-month contract posted a low of 75.11 during December, a test of  the target at $76.50. This price marks the 50% retraecment level of the previous [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend despite the lower close to December. The secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend looks to be Wave 2 of the major pattern, with a downside target area between 3,796.05 and 3,692.53. Wave [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of 103.39 during December. The next downside target is 101.99, the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from 89.20 (January 2021) through the high of 114.78 [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend that began with a bearish 2-month reversal during April and May 2022 (red arrow on chart). The next downside target for the [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. Wave C (third wave) is expected to take out the Wave A (first wave) low of $7.6159 from August. The [...]

Live Cattle (Cash Index): The cash market extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $155 during November and closed at that mark. This was the highest monthly close since May 2015 at $160.83. Based on monthly stochastics, the [...]

Brent crude (QA) still looks to be in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend despite the higher close to October. The spot-month contract finished at $92.81 as compared to September’s settlement of $85.14. Given the market is still showing bullish fundamentals, [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) extended its new major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend to a high of 4,080.11 during November. At some point, Wave 1 will peak setting the stage for a Wave 2 selloff that could last for 3 months and [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) confirmed a new major (long-term) downtrend in early December as it moved to a new 4-month low below 104.64. However, $DXY is also nearing a possible reversal into a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) looks to be in Wave B (second wave) of its major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. Based on the market's bullish fundamentals, both national average basis (short-term) and futures spreads [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) rstill looks to be in Wave B (second wave) of its 3-wave major (long-term) downtrend. October saw the HWPI post a high of $9.96, still short of [...]

Brent crude (QA) still looks to be in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend despite the higher close to October. The spot-month contract finished at $92.81 as compared to September's settlement of $85.14. Given the market is still showing bullish fundamentals, [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) extended Wave 3 of its 3-wave major (long-term) downtrend to a low of 3,491.58 early in October before abruptly changing course. But the time the dust had settled on October 31 the $INX had posted a [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) consolidated during October, staying well within September's wide range before closing lower for the month. Therefore, no clear reversal pattern has been completed to confirm a new major (long-term) downtrend indicated by the most recent [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a new 4-month low near $6.37 before rallying back to $6.61 to close out September. While it would not be surprising to [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend. However, the HWPI extended its rally off the August low near $7.62, a mark that was part of a bullish spike [...]

Brent crude (QA) extended its major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend to a low of $83.63 during September. The next downside target is $76.50, the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $16.00 (April 2020) through the high of $137.00 (March [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) saw Wave C (third wave) of its 3-wave major (long-term) downtrend extend past the Wave A (first wave) low of 3,636.87 from June. By definition, this completes the 3-wave pattern through the monthly close (3,585.62) near [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of 114.78 during September. However, by falling back to close at 112.12, monthly stochastics established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. This is again [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) consolidated during August before closing at $7.1363, up 14.75 cents for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains down after the NCPI completed a bearish 2-month reversal at [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of $7.6159 during August before rallying to close at $8.6516. This was 40.58 cents higher for the month. If [...]

Brent crude (QA) extended its major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend to a low of $91.52 during August. The next downside target is $90.78, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $16.00 (April 2020) through the high of $137.00 (March [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) looks to have possibly posted the peak of Wave B (second wave) of its major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. The index hit a high of 4,325.28 during August before closing the month at 3,954.53, down 175.29 for [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) closed the month of August at 108.70, up 2.80 for the month. This after extending its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of 109.48, taking out the July peak of 109.29. While the argument could've [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of new 4-month low of $6.4725 during July before rallying into the end of the month. This leaves the NCPI [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of $7.6343 during July, a sharp sell off for the month but holding above the target of $7.1520. This [...]

Brent crude (QA) confirmed a new major (long-term) downtrend as it fell to a new 4-month low of $94.50 during July. this followed the bearish spike reversal posted during June and the most recent bearish crossover by monthly stochastics below [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) looks to have moved into Wave B (second wave) of its 3-wave major (long-term) downtrend. Wave A (first wave) looks to have bottomed out with the June low of 3,636.87 before the $INX posted an inside [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of 109.29 during July. This was the highest the index has been since September 2002 when it reached 109.77. And while the $DXY finished the month back at [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) posted a bearish outside range during June, a move that completed a double-top reversal pattern on its long-term monthly chart. This fits the idea the NCPI has moved [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) looks to have collapsed into a major (long-term) downtrend. As discussed in this space last month, the HWPI had not completed a bearish reversal through the end [...]

I'm going to call the major (long-term) trend on the WTI crude oil chart sideways, with a wide range between the previous 4-month high of $130.50 (March 2022) and 4-month low of $93.53 (also March 2022). June saw the spot-month [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) extended its major (long-term) downtrend during June to a low of 3,636.87, keeping in bearish territory below the 20% selloff level of 3,854.90 (top dashed blue line). The next level of interest is the Dow Theory [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) ignored the bearish spike reversal form May, spending most of June above the previous month's settlement of 101.75 on its way to posting a new high of 105.79. This was the strongest the $DXY had [...]

The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) was under pressure for much of May, falling back from its April high   near $8.05 and April close near $7.96 (note the proximity to the big round [...]

The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) could still be considered in a major (long-term) uptrend. I know how absurd this sounds given the HWBI has dropped more than $2.50 off its May high [...]

WTI Crude Oil remains in a major (long-term) uptrend, though still holding well below its March 2022 high of $130.50. Initial support during June is at the previous 4-month low of $86.55. I consider the market to still be in [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend. May saw the $INX extend this pattern to a low of 3,810.32 before rallying at the end of the month. However, this low was a 21% drop from the January [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) completed a bearish spike reversal during June, indicating the major (long-term) trend has turned down. One of the characteristics of a spike reversal is it tends to be followed by a quick retracement, possibly so [...]

Cash Corn: For comparison purposes, I’m using the DTN Corn Index this month because it has a longer track record than the Barchart National Corn Price Index. Here we see the cash corn index posting a new all-time high monthly [...]

Chicago SRW Wheat: For comparison purposed, I'm using the DTN SRW Wheat Cash Index this month because it has a longer track record than the Barchart National SRW Wheat Price Index. Here we see the cash SRW index finished April [...]

Recall from previous discussions continuous monthly livestock charts are not my favorite studies for a number of reasons. Live cattle remain in a major (long-term) downtrend, with the continuous monthly chart made more interesting by the expiration of the April [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend. April was interesting as the $INX completed a number of bearish technical patterns: The monthly close of 4,131.93 was below the previous 4-month low close of 4,373.94 (February 2022) Based [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a monthly close of 103.21. This took out the previous high monthly close of 102.21 from December 2016 and was the highest monthly close since 106.41 from November 2002. [...]

Cash Corn: My Blink reaction (based on Malcolm Gladwell's book "Blink") is to say the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend. Activity during March, including a new high near $7.53, created a Wave B [...]

Do to the large spikes seen during March, I've applied the Wilhelmi Element (The only price that matters is the close) to all three cmdty National Wheat Price Indexes this month. This means I'm analyzing the monthly close-only charts. Chicago [...]

Recall from previous discussions continuous monthly livestock charts are not my favorite studies for a number of reasons. Live Cattle: I still see a major (long-term) downtrend on the market's continuous monthly chart. However, the previous bearish reversal pattern occurred [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend, despite the higher monthly close to March. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on the $INX weekly chart looks to be Wave B (second wave) of the major 3-wave downtrend pattern meaning [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of 99.42 during March. While the $DXY is showing no sign of a top, its monthly stochastics are at 90% or higher indicting the greenback is sharply [...]

The live cattle futures market extended the major (long-term) uptrend on its continuous monthly chart during February. The February contract hit a high of $144.075 before the April finished the month at $141.425. Meanwhile, we continue to see a series [...]

The major (long-term) trend of feeder cattle futures looks to have turned down during February. The nearby contract completed a bearish key reversal over the course of the month before closing below January's low of $157.65. With futures spreads bearish, [...]

The long-term continuous monthly chart for the nearby lean hog futures contract looks similar to many others discussed Tuesday morning. First, from a technical point of view the market still looks to be in a major (long-term) downtrend with the [...]

The cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend on its monthly chart. That being said, old-crop fundamentals have grown more bullish, helping the NCPI to post a strong Wave B [...]

It could still be argued this continuous monthly chart for December corn only shows a major (long-term) downtrend. Yes, the 2022 contract took out the previous high of $6.38 as it spiked to a February high of $6.4625 before falling [...]

The cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) certainly looks to have established a major (long-term) double-top on its monthly chart during February. Over the course of the month it posted a high of $16.7268, just [...]

The continuous monthly chart for November soybean futures only is interesting as it gives both market bulls and market bears ammunition to continue their argument: Bears The 2022 contract was not able to hold its February spike, closing the month [...]

The cmdty National SRW Wheat Price Index (SWPI, weighted national average cash price) erased January's bearish outside month during February, extending the previous major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $8.9387. Much of the February move has to do with [...]

The cmdty National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $9.4521 during February. While cash HRW is sharply overbought, national average basis remains strong and futures spreads are [...]

The cmdty National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI, weighted national average cash price) abruptly changed direction during February, rallying to a new high of $10.4640 before falling off that mark at Monday's closing calculation of $9.4794. Bearish traders could view [...]

The major (long-term) trend of crude oil remains up. The spot-month contract posted a high of $100.54 during February, the first time above $100 since July 2014, and is quickly moving back toward its high Tuesday, March 1. Of course [...]

Though I don't see an absolutely clear reversal pattern, the major (long-term) trend of the US 10-year T-note (ZN) looks to be in the process of turning up. After posting a new low of 125-175 during February the ZN was [...]

The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend, a trend that began with the bearish key reversal posted during January. Not only did the $INX complete this important reversal pattern, it posted a new 4-month low of 4,222.62, [...]

The US dollar index ($DXY) remains in a major (long-term) uptrend, extending its move to a high of 97.74 during February. Yes, the $DXY is sharply overbought, with monthly stochastics near 90%, but given the global situation investors still view [...]

An interesting technical pattern continues to build on this monthly chart for the euro (^EURUSD), with bearish outside months posted during January and February. This means the euro traded outside the previous month's range before closing lower, both months, usually [...]

I still see the Canadian dollar (CADUSD) in a major (long-term) downtrend, though the loonie continues to flatline on this monthly close-only chart. Support is at the recent low monthly close of 0.78249 (November 2021), with resistance at the recent [...]

The major (long-term) trend of the Brazilian real (BRLUSD) remains sideways, with support at the low of 0.16756 (May 2020) and resistance 0.20739 (June 2020). As expected, the real took out its previous 4-month high during February, a bullish momentum [...]

As the market's long-term continuous monthly chart shows, lean hogs have made an impressive move since hitting a low of $70.20 this past December. As always, lean hogs are tricky when we start to put the technical pieces together: The [...]

The cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend on its monthly chart. This dates back to the bearish spike reversal posted last May, that included a high of $7.4931. What's [...]

The continuous monthly chart for December corn only still shows a major (long-term) downtrend is in place following the bearish spike reversal from may 2021. That being said, the market continues to consolidate in a tightening range, a pattern that [...]

A look at the continuous monthly chart for November soybean futures only shows a similar pattern to cash soybeans, an ongoing 3-wave major (long-term) downtrend. However, confirmation of this trend did not occur until the November 2021 issue took out [...]

The cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. The ongoing rally off the November low of $11.4157 can be considered Wave B (second wave) of the 3-wave pattern. If [...]

The cmdty National SRW Wheat Price Index (SWPI, weighted national average cash price) posted a bearish outside range during January, but still came up short of completing a clear bearish reversal that would confirm a new major (long-term) downtrend.Heading into [...]

The cmdty National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) moved lower during January, but again came up short of confirming a new major (long-term) downtrend. The HWPI posted a low of $7.2334, well above its previous [...]

The cmdty National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend during January, hitting a low for the month of $8.2894. This held above the previous 4-month low of $8.2119, setting the stage [...]

The spot-month crude oil contract extended the market's major (long-term) uptrend during January, hitting a high of $88.84. This was the highest price posted since the October 2014 peak of 92.96. Crude oil continues to be supported by long-term bullish [...]

We will now find out if technical patterns mean much anymore, particularly in the key US stock index market of the S&P 500 ($INX). I was set to make the argument activity during January resulted in the clearest example of [...]

The March US 10-year T-note futures contract (ZNH) extended the market's major (long-term) downtrend during January to a low of 127-020.  The next downside target is 126-104, the 61.8% retracement level of the previous major uptrend on the continuous monthly [...]

Is the US dollar index ($DXY) sharply overbought? Yes, according to its monthly stochastics sitting well above 80% as January came to an end. But this hasn't been enough to spark a move to a major (long-term) downtrend, at least [...]

An initial look at the monthly chart for the euro (EURUSD) shows it posted a bearish outside month during January, setting the stage for an extension of the major (long-term) downtrend that has been in place since a bearish spike [...]

I still see the Canadian dollar (CADUSD) in a major (long-term) downtrend despite the bullish spike reversal posted during December. January followed this move with a bearish spike reversal. If we clear up our view by applying the Wilhelmi Element [...]

The major (long-term) trend of the Brazilian real (BRLUSD) remains sideways, with support at the low of 0.16756 (May 2020) and resistance 0.20739 (June 2020). As we start February, immediate resistance is the previous 4-month high of 0.18914 posted late [...]

The cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) looks set to begin Wave C (third wave) of its 3-wave major (long-term) downtrend pattern. The recent secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend looks to be Wave B (second wave) of [...]

The cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) downtrend with the next target at $10.7740. The NSPI closed December calculated at $12.9589. The NSPI has been in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, [...]

While I don't see anything conclusive on this monthly chart for the cmdty National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price), there are indications the market could be topping out long-term. December saw the HWPI post an [...]

Just to change things up a bit, I've again posted the monthly close-only chart for the cmdty National SRW Wheat Price Index (SWPI, weighted national average cash price). The SWPI is indicating a potential major (long-term) top, though no confirmation [...]

The cmdty National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI, weighted national average cash price) continued its selloff during December. This extended the market's major (long-term) downtrend that began with the completion of a bearish 2-month reversal at the end of November. [...]

If analyzing what I see on crude oil's continuous monthly chart and blocking out all other information, I still see a major (long-term) downtrend. The spot-month contract completed a bearish 2-month reversal during November, not surprisingly followed by a recovery [...]

February gold is slowly building long-term bullish momentum on its monthly, unfortunately just as it starts to run out of time before losing its title of "most heavily traded gold contract". By the end of January the April issue will [...]

The S&P 500 Index ($INX) posted an impressive end of 2021, registering 70 record high daily closes over the course of the year, the second most for a 1-year period being 1995's 77 closing record highs. Undoubtedly the major (long-term) [...]

The US 10-year T-note (ZN) market did not perform particularly well during December as the nearby futures contract closed the month at 130-150. This after taking out both the November high of 132-015 and equaling the October peak of 132-085. [...]

As usual, the flip-side of the euro is the US dollar index as the greenback still looks to have established a major (long-term) top. Monthly stochastics established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80% at the end of [...]

The euro continues to indicate the previous major (long-term) downtrend came to an end with the November low of 1.11863. November saw the euro rally off that low to close above its downside target price of 1.12905 with activity during [...]

While I still see the Canadian dollar (loonie) in a major (long-term) downtrend after the loonie posted a new 4-month low during December of 0.77136, it's secondary (intermediate-term) trend may have tried to turn up last week. Initial secondary resistance [...]