As you know, I frequently reference my late friend and long-time CBOT floor reporter Gary Wilhelmi. While working in the newsroom, part of my job was to visit with Gary every day, and he would tell me what he saw [...]

As usual, this week’s topic reminds me of a story. A long time ago when I was a youngish commodity broker, I did a producer meeting with our local grain merchandiser. As we talked, a question that has become familiar [...]

For many years, as I made the rounds of winter meetings and farm shows, I mostly flew Southwest Airlines. This is not an endorsement, but a statement of fact as it was usually the cheapest and had flights to most [...]

We all watched as the probability of Russia invading Ukraine increased last Friday, with markets across the board responding as if it was the first time trading algorithms had seriously factored what looks to be inevitable into the equation. Two [...]

Inflation remains a hot topic with financial analysts sounding a lot like the old Bud Light “Tastes great!”, “Less filling” commercials as they argue over the terms “transitory” and “permanent”. The truth of the matter is just as the old [...]

My original plan for this Weekly Column was to write about how high input costs was going to change North American planted acres in 2022. But then I saw where everyone was writing about this subject, all saying the same [...]

I’m putting aside my planned column on the socialist system that is the US grain industry. I spent most of the week pointing out the stupidity of the argument USDA should continue to run markets with the release of obviously [...]

This past week I had a conversation with a good friend in the cattle industry, and I’ve been thinking about something he said ever since. I knew immediately it would be the subject of my next Column as it is [...]

The recent run of dry weather, with some areas of the United States also experiencing extended summer warmth, has accelerated early harvest progress. By the time you read this it would not be surprising if the 2021 US corn harvest [...]

I’ve been working on this column for nearly two weeks. Every time I started to make headway, I would come upon a question I couldn’t answer, and I recalled fondly the times in my life when I had my good [...]

My friend Mike Pearson invited me to be the guest on his “Farming in the 605” podcast, sponsored by South Dakota Corn. Late in the conversation, if my memory serves, the discussion turned to the investment side of the commodity [...]

"Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, and sorry I could not travel both, and be one traveler, long I stood and looked down as far as I could to where it bent in the undergrowth; Then took the other, [...]

Somehow, the last day of May is upon us. It seems like only yesterday when Justin Timberlake’s singing of “It’s gonna be may (me)” was all over social media. Now, though, when we wake up Tuesday morning meteorological summer will [...]

Following Tuesday’s close in the grain and oilseed complex, a day that saw old-crop July corn fall its daily limit 40 cents before closing 37 cents lower, the question on everyone’s mind was “Why?”. You folks are familiar with my [...]

The discussion over inflation grew louder last week after the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both came in much higher than expected. I always get a chuckle out of that phrase, “higher/lower than expected”, because [...]

From a fundamental point of view, this coming week is going to be “fun”. Now that May option expiration is out of the way, and the hilarity any option expiration day can bring, the focus now is on the delivery [...]

As hard as it is to believe, we have already passed the midpoint of meteorological spring here in North America. Yet as I type this out, the forecast for Omaha (and much of the rest of the US Midwest) calls [...]

If you’ve been paying attention to ag media recently, you know talking about futures spreads and forward curves has become “cool”, much more so than it was 18 months ago. Recall then the favored themes were trade wars are good [...]

A question that has come up more frequently of late is whether or not I think the commodity sector is in a supercycle. Some of the interest has to do with another market analyst’s recent prediction of $30 soybeans, raising [...]

It’s the last day of February, meaning the last day of meteorological winter. In honor of the day, Major League Baseball has scheduled its first games of Spring Training for Sunday, the first sign meteorological spring begins with when the [...]

A look at the calendar shows North America has one more week of winter before meteorological spring begins on March 1. A year ago at this time, the world was just waking to the realization of a potential pandemic, paving [...]

I spent this past weekend putting together a market presentation I’ll be giving, in person, in Hutchinson, Minnesota later this week. As I was working, it dawned on me to go back and look at the last time I was [...]

“There’s a train a-coming…” One of the hot topics this past week was news that the CME Group had announced its plans to increase “both spot-month and all-months combined speculative limits effective March 15.” (National Grain and Feed Association Newsletter; [...]

January has come and gone, and what a month it was. History books will forever talk about the attempted overthrow of democracy early in the month, while a mere two weeks later the scene at the exact same spot was [...]

“Now that I have your attention, soybeans could also fall back to less than $10.” Some of you may remember, but that was the opening line to my first weekly column with DTN back in early 2004. (I asked if [...]

I’ve been thinking a lot about Ernest Hemingway lately. Every time I look in the mirror I’m reminded of The Old Man and the Sea. When I watch the news regarding the political situation in the United States, For Whom [...]

There are points in time that for the rest of our lives we remember where we were and what we were doing. For me it is watching Richard Nixon’s resignation speech from the little living room in our house in [...]

There will be a lot of negative pieces posted talking about how terrible 2020 was. The problems are well known, with the deaths tied to Covid-19 staggering. But there were bright spots as well, things that happened over the last [...]

I’m bullish soybeans. I wanted to get that out of the way right off the bat, because I’ve had a history of not being bullish soybeans, though the evolution of my opinion has been well documented over the course of [...]

“How confident are you?” The question was asked as part of a conversation with a friend regarding my Friday morning Chart of the Day, “December 2021 Corn: Change Could Be Coming”. Maybe it had something to do with the vagueness [...]

I started this past week off with Monday’s Morning Commentary titled, “It Should Be an Interesting Week”, and as we watched the days unfold through Friday’s close that's exactly how most markets played out. Along the way, I had some [...]

The 2020 US Presidential Election looks to have been decided, though not conceded, with Joe Biden the next President of the United States. Looking at totals from the Associated Press, Mr. Biden not only achieved the needed 270 electoral votes [...]

King Corn has been on my mind a lot lately and judging by the questions I’ve received from many of you (a big ‘Thank You’ to all) the market is on your mind as well. While soybeans are the most [...]

Based on the meteorological calendar that has fall running from September 1 through November 30, a span of 91 days, we officially reached the Halftime of Autumn at roughly noon this past Friday. We’ve all seen enough televised sports to [...]

As many of you will recall, Newsom’s Rule #5 states: It’s the what, not the why; meaning when we are faced with trying to figure out a market, the most important factor is what is happening rather than why something [...]

It was a year ago to the day (October 4) that I got into a spirited debate with other analysts on the merits of using futures spreads to better understand supply and demand, rather than being solely reliant on misinformation [...]

As you’ve likely heard or read me say before, we usually have CNBC on the television here in the basement office of Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. And yes, as is my nature, I spend more time than I should probably [...]

Since the week of August 24, 2020, the three major US stock market indexes have seen these results: The Nasdaq has dropped 902.35 points, or 7.7% The S&P 500 has fallen 188.54 points, or 5.4% The Dow Jones Industrial Average [...]

As we get ready to turn the calendar page from August to September, we must acknowledge the end of meteorological summer is at hand. And what a summer it has been; a season that included a derecho, continued drought, dual [...]

Those of you who have followed me over the years are familiar with my belief that data collection, organization, and dissemination should be privatized. This is based on the age-old business proverb, “You get what you pay for”, meaning “the [...]

“Hello, my name is Darin and I’m a soybean market bear.” The first step to any recovery program is to admit you have a problem, which I have now done. Those of you who have been with me over the [...]

This past week saw a lot of folks join our group, some using the free trial as an introduction not only to all we have available on the website, but to my analysis and commentary as well. It just so [...]

A popular subject of discussion Friday afternoon was the double-digit sell-off by corn following the release of USDA’s July Supply and Demand reports. Yes, the September contract closed 11 1/2 cents while December dropped 12 1/4, due in part to [...]

I’ve recently brought up a favorite subject of mine, Market Types. Way back when humans gathered together every day (a novel concept these days) in trading pits, waiting for the chaos the opening bell would bring, we could study a [...]

As you know from previous columns, summer wheat harvest has long been my favorite time of year. This weekend, a good friend of mine has been posting pictures of his family harvesting their crop in Oklahoma, with every picture bringing [...]

A conundrum is defined as “A problem admitting of no satisfactory solution”, fitting perfectly with my view of soybeans as we head into the June 30 Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports. Those of you who have been with me over [...]

As we prepare for another round of June Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports, the underlying question has to be: What is the reality of the corn market? In this column I’m going to discuss all the factors I see, providing [...]

A look at the weather map this early summer Friday morning shows rains falling across parts of western and eastern Kansas, while the central part of the state is relatively dry at this hour. And while this could slow the [...]

As you know, I often get ideas for my Weekly Columns from conversations I have with all of you. It is always interesting to hear what is going on in the real world, then try to apply it to what [...]

The soybean (SB) market was back in the spotlight this past week, starting with President Trump’s comments a week ago this past Friday on China and Hong Kong. And while the president came up short of announcing new tariffs and [...]

'Call me Ishmael." Or not, since that isn’t my name, but I’ll answer to almost anything. As I watched the events of the past week, I couldn’t help but think of the monomaniacal Captain Ahab and his ill-fated whaling boat [...]

As I’ve said many times over the last couple months, everything we do from here on out constitutes a “new normal”. A case in point is last week’s Kansas wheat tour, an event that usually occurs in early May and [...]

The question I’ve been asked more than any other of late falls along this line, “What do you make of the bullish soybean futures spreads?” It’s a great question, and one that when combined with what we think we know [...]

We all have times in our lives when we wish we could once again talk to those who have gone on before us. Personally, I’d give almost anything to sit down over a cup of coffee with Dad, maybe a [...]

Like most businesses that deal with people’s money, the basement office of Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. has financial news running on the television at all hours. The particular outlet we watch (CNBC) has a question it likes to ask of [...]

What a week this past week was. If you could imagine it happening, including a commodity going below $0, it did. We also saw another king put on life support, wheat react as only wheat can to a spring freeze, [...]

When an animal is injured, it returns to its lair. When a child is sick, it wants nothing more than to cuddle with its mother. And when markets are awash in uncertainty --these times being the most uncertain of any [...]

I’ve recently been reminded of a story from 2009. At the Grapevine, Texas edition of Commodity Classic that year, after giving my Early Riser Market Presentation, complete with question and answer (always one of my favorite parts of any presentation), [...]

This was another week when the column writing process went through a number of changes. Initially I was thinking of expanding on my post-USDA Quarterly Stocks comments, but then life got in the way. As the week progressed I heard [...]

This is one of those weeks when I could write a column about a hundred different things, and my ideas bounced from one to the next with each passing day. We saw an historic rally in U.S. stock markets, a [...]

With all hell seemingly breaking loose -- both inside and outside the market arena -- we have been reminded countless times that if we want to save the planet we must follow a few simple rules: Wash your hands for [...]

Something doesn’t feel right. The world seems to be crumbling all around us, but is it really? Is the key word in all that “seems”? And if so, would we not be well advised to remember the old saying, “Not [...]

As I watched market activity unfold this past week, I knew it would be difficult to trim my Weekly Column to just one topic. With that in mind, I’m putting this piece together as a series of thoughts and observations [...]

Since posting my study of stocks-to-use and marketing year average cash prices earlier this week, I’ve had a number of conversations regarding the corn market. Some have asked if I thought Watson, my name for noncommercial algorithm trade in general, [...]

This week has been one for the history books. As the coronavirus spreads from continent to continent, making its way around the world, global markets are collapsing at a record pace. Here at the headquarters of Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc., [...]

For a holiday-shortened week, due to this past Monday’s U.S. government holiday, this sure seemed like a long week. There was a lot going on, starting with a spur of the moment drive Sunday evening to Spencer, Iowa to speak [...]

In Part 1 of this extended Weekly Column for this 3-day holiday here in the United States, I applied Newsom’s Market Rules #1 and #2 to the soybean market to show how I build an opinion on any market, and [...]

I admit it, I’m biased. Yes, I’ve been bearish soybeans since before Donald Trump was awarded enough electoral college votes back in 2016 to hold the title of President of the United States. How many of my own market rules [...]

Earlier this week I had the opportunity to speak at a meeting hosted by some friends of mine, a father and son running a crop insurance agency out of Ceresco, Nebraska. I’ve been giving market talks at this meeting for [...]

The end of January is upon us, with Groundhog Day on the calendar this coming weekend. Those of you who have followed me over the years know the great importance I put on whether or not Punxsutawney Phil sees his [...]

I’m writing this column Friday afternoon, after most of the markets have closed for the week but before the end of the week bourbon takes effect. Warm jazz is on the radio while a normal Midwest winter’s chill lingers outside. [...]

As we all know by now, this past Wednesday, Jan. 15 was signing day for the phase-one trade deal between the United States and China. And though the ink has been on the paper a little over 24 hours, I’ve [...]

It’s that time of year when everyone is out making predictions for the new year, that time immediately following the holiday season and end-of-year top stories. Regarding the latter, if we are honest with ourselves, there were only three that [...]

I’ll let you in on a little secret -- 2019 is almost over. Yes, I know all of you will be greatly disappointed that this year of years is finally coming to an end, but December 31 is quickly approaching. [...]

Yes, today is Friday the 13th and, as some of you know, I’ve always viewed this as a lucky day. But then again, as someone commented to me Thursday, “I’m worried that you lost your mind … .” He may [...]

A year ago to the day, my Weekly Column was titled “Lessons from Chosin”. In it I summarized the famed battle from the Korean “Police Action” (undeclared war), when General Douglas MacArthur sent U.S. troops north from Inchon to quickly [...]

We are about ready to close the book on 2019, a year that will long be talked about for the misery it brought to many farmers across North America. It was about a year ago when Mother Nature started to [...]

Usually, once we get this deep into November, there is little happening in markets as everyone’s thoughts have turned to the holidays. Approaching quickly is Thanksgiving here in the United States rolling around Thursday, Nov. 28. Rather than talking technical [...]

A friend sent me a message this past week. It wasn’t so much a question as it was a statement, “Years ago there was so much optimism, good prices in corn and soybeans with ethanol and large annual bean sales [...]

Last time, in The Decision (Part 1): Old-Crop, I talked about the rather straight forward issue of what crop to hold (between corn and soybeans), hedge and roll and what crop to sell up front. The decision was based on [...]

Keep in mind it’s October and Halloween is drawing near. That means there are all kinds of scary, spooky movies to be watched and books to be read. Heck, one can even go back and search for the most frightening [...]

Though it is hard for me to believe, USDA report days are more exhausting now than back in my former life when I had to immediately turn around and put together a 1-hour webinar, followed by a written Report Review. [...]

Shortly after the release of USDA’s Quarterly Stocks report this past Monday, I received a message on Twitter asking, “What can be done about USDA screwing us and then correcting it after the crop year when we are all sold [...]

This is a weekly column, yes, but also a report preview. Most of you know that before we meet again, in this place, USDA will have released its September Quarterly Stocks report showing stocks on hand as of Sept. 1. [...]

According to news reports, late this week saw a mid-level meeting in Washington, D.C. between the Chinese and U.S. trade teams, a precursor to what have been labeled high-level talks next month in Beijing (if I recall correctly). Of course [...]

I’ve started this column at least a half-dozen times, always coming up with a different topic to talk about following what was certainly a week to remember. As I make my way through the normal Weekly Analysis I do, nearly [...]

Those of you who have been with me through the years recall that I like to describe U.S. corn demand as a three-legged stool. These legs -- feed, ethanol, and exports -- were weakened over the course of the 2018-2019 [...]

August 26: It’s early morning, and I will soon be embarking on a road trip across the great U.S. Midwest. This cmdty Exchange (Barchart) excursion will cover five states in five days, starting in Fort Dodge, Iowa later today. I [...]

The end of August will soon be upon us. What does that mean? For one thing, the last day of August marks the last day of meteorological summer, opening the door for autumn with the next sunrise. I like summer, [...]

Corn has become King again with nearly every question I receive having to do with what is both the simplest and most complex of markets. If you recall last week’s column, “Two Out of Three Are Bad”, I talked about [...]

There are a number of things I could talk about in this week’s column, from Thursday’s soybean rally and Newsom’s Market Rule #5 to the sandwich associated with each state. But as I look back over the conversations I’ve had [...]

First, I apologize for this column being a bit late. It was a busy week, one that found me speaking at a meeting in Willmar, Minnesota Thursday and participating as the guest analyst on Friday’s Iowa Public Television program Market [...]

Picture this: It’s late August 1992 and I’m sitting in my small hometown commodity brokerage office located in the main building of the grain cooperative. I’m still a relative greenhorn, having had my Series 3 commodity license for less than [...]

I think it’s safe to say corn has been on nearly everyone’s mind of late. Most of the correspondence I’ve received over the last few weeks has had to do with old King Corn, with topics ranging from the most [...]

Yes, it’s that time of the month again. Later today USDA will unveil its latest guesses on old-crop ending stocks and new-crop supply and demand. I know a lot of folks get aggravated when I call what USDA does “guessing,” [...]

As most of you know, I recently made an appearance on Farm Journal’s television program “U.S. Farm Report.” While there, and on air, host Tyne Morgan asked me and the other guest analyst Tommy Grisafi a number of thought-provoking questions, [...]

This column originates (as so many of them do) with a question from a friend. This week a gentleman, after reading some of my daily commentary, sent me a message stating, “I know what carry is, but I want to [...]

Those of you who have followed me over the years recall that one of my favorite movies, without question, is Mel Brooks’ “Young Frankenstein”. This was Brooks, Gene Wilder, Marty Feldman, Teri Garr, and the rest of the cast at [...]

I’m going to throw a set of price changes at you: +18 3/4, -7 1/2 (and 28 off its high), +25 3/4, -6 (and 17 off its high), +13 3/4, -18 1/4, -22 3/4, and +9 1/2 (14 1/4 cents [...]

The explosive rally in corn, soybeans, wheat, etc., over the last couple of weeks has filled my email and direct messages on Twitter with questions. Lots of questions. But, as you can guess, there is one that is asked more [...]

To recap our previous two discussion, we see based on technical analysis the soybean markets (cash, new-crop futures) are bullish and fundamental analysis shows us the old-crop U.S. situation is more bearish than it has ever been in modern history. [...]

Last time in this space, we were talking about the technical picture of the soybean market. If you recall, the conclusion was the major (long term) trend of cash soybeans (the underlying intrinsic value of the market as a whole) [...]

Let’s start on the technical, or chart based, side of the market this time, shall we? I’m writing this piece early Thursday morning, meaning there’s a chance things could change  technically by the time the final closing bell rings (figuratively) [...]

It has been a wild week in the grain and oilseed markets with corn and soybeans posting strong rallies and bullish technical signals (as of this writing). All this after last Friday’s (yes only a week ago) May round of [...]

I’m going to let Mr. Charles Dickens open my column for me this week: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was [...]

It has been another busy week on Twitter with conversations covering a wide range of subjects. One of the more humorous observations was from my friend and host of the Iowa Public Television show Market to Market, Delaney Howell. She [...]

As most of you know, it’s baseball season and I enjoy baseball more than most other U.S. sports. There was a time when baseball was considered the National Pastime here in the United States, with one automotive company including it [...]

Except for a couple jogs through various airports, usually Chicago O’Hare, the last 10 months have provided me with plenty of time to catch up on my reading. On my list, so far, has been a rereading of many Sherlock [...]

I was visiting with a customer last week, a farmer from Nebraska if I recall, and the subject turned to the large net-short futures position held by noncommercial traders. As we talked, I mentioned to him that we continue to [...]

Here we are, having arrived at yet another Friday, with not much new to talk about in the markets. We all know about China’s African Swine Fever, have seen the effect it has had on the lean hog market, and [...]

I was going to title this piece "The Puzzle (Pt. 2): Wheat," but honestly, wheat isn't really a puzzle. It's bearish. It looks like it's going to stay bearish for the foreseeable future. It's a weed, or as some like [...]

For this column, I did some quick internet research on unsolvable math problems. My search quickly led me to a list that included these categories: Hilbert’s Problems, Landau’s Problems, Smale’s Problems, and Thurston’s 24 Questions. In regard to the latter, [...]

We are now one week removed from the release of USDA’s March Quarterly Stocks report, a data set that, as we all know, showed grain stocks on hand as of March 1. As I discussed last week, this marked the [...]

This week, I’m turning my column into a Report Preview of Friday’s USDA Quarterly Stocks report. Some of you may be asking, “What about Prospective Plantings?”. It’s hard for me to put into words how little I care for, and [...]

“It was dark all around, there was frost in the ground, when the ‘waters’ broke free.” On March 6, on the social media site Twitter, I posted this question: Given the deep snow across parts of the U.S. Midwest and [...]

I have the privilege of traveling to Montreal, Quebec this week, so as you read this, I will either be getting ready to speak at the Grainwiz: Grow Your Profits Conference or actually speaking during my morning “Rules” workshop session, [...]

“Rollin’, rollin’ rollin’…” You know the words as well as I do, to the theme song from the old tv western Rawhide. I can’t help but think many are taking this approach to marketing old-crop soybeans and corn as the [...]

Today (Friday, March 1), according to the meteorological calendar, is the first day of spring. Those of you living in the U.S. Midwest, don’t bother looking outside for signs of green grass and budding flowers. They aren’t there, unless you [...]

Options. Everyone’s favorite subject. As I’ve made the speaking rounds over the last 15 years, the one subject that brought a glazed eye to those in in attendance like no other was options. Premium, time value, intrinsic value, volatility, strike [...]

In another lifetime, I once sat down to the most important job interview of my life. At a Cracker Barrel restaurant in Topeka, Kansas, the most interesting man I have ever had the pleasure to meet sat across the table [...]