Seasons Change

2022-09-01T06:34:19-05:00September 1st, 2022|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Well, we’ve suddenly reached September 1. Not only has the calendar changed, but the season as well. In the Northern Hemisphere, the summer of 2022 is just a memory as meteorological fall begins, meaning winter is a mere three months [...]

Define China

2022-07-04T11:04:30-05:00July 4th, 2022|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I know Monday is a US holiday, the day set aside to remember the thirteen colonies’ Declaration of Independence from Britain. The Second Continental Congress voted for independence on July 2, moving John Adams to write to his wife Abigail, [...]

Spring Forward

2022-03-20T10:26:53-05:00March 20th, 2022|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As you know, I frequently reference my late friend and long-time CBOT floor reporter Gary Wilhelmi. While working in the newsroom, part of my job was to visit with Gary every day, and he would tell me what he saw [...]

Tipping Over

2022-03-13T11:58:37-05:00March 13th, 2022|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As usual, this week’s topic reminds me of a story. A long time ago when I was a youngish commodity broker, I did a producer meeting with our local grain merchandiser. As we talked, a question that has become familiar [...]

Aisle, Middle, or Window

2022-03-05T08:58:31-06:00March 5th, 2022|Commentary, Weekly Column|

For many years, as I made the rounds of winter meetings and farm shows, I mostly flew Southwest Airlines. This is not an endorsement, but a statement of fact as it was usually the cheapest and had flights to most [...]

Back in the USSR

2022-02-21T15:52:19-06:00February 13th, 2022|Commentary, Weekly Column|

We all watched as the probability of Russia invading Ukraine increased last Friday, with markets across the board responding as if it was the first time trading algorithms had seriously factored what looks to be inevitable into the equation. Two [...]

Corn and Porn

2022-02-08T16:12:09-06:00February 8th, 2022|Weekly Column|

A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away I studied to be a lawyer. One of the books for required reading was “The Brethren: Inside the Supreme Court” by Bob Woodward (of Watergate fame) and Scott Armstrong. This [...]

Quantum Leap

2022-01-16T09:56:03-06:00January 16th, 2022|Commentary, Weekly Column|

“Hello, it’s me. I’ve thought about us for a long, long time…” Those of you of a certain age will recognized those words as the opening line from the song “Hello, It’s Me” by Todd Rundgren from back in the [...]

My Transitory Thoughts on Inflation

2021-11-07T15:15:35-06:00November 7th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Inflation remains a hot topic with financial analysts sounding a lot like the old Bud Light “Tastes great!”, “Less filling” commercials as they argue over the terms “transitory” and “permanent”. The truth of the matter is just as the old [...]

The Madness of King Corn

2021-10-24T11:51:10-05:00October 24th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

My original plan for this Weekly Column was to write about how high input costs was going to change North American planted acres in 2022. But then I saw where everyone was writing about this subject, all saying the same [...]

The Capital

2021-10-17T13:22:34-05:00October 17th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’m putting aside my planned column on the socialist system that is the US grain industry. I spent most of the week pointing out the stupidity of the argument USDA should continue to run markets with the release of obviously [...]

Das Kapital

2021-10-10T14:13:59-05:00October 10th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This past week I had a conversation with a good friend in the cattle industry, and I’ve been thinking about something he said ever since. I knew immediately it would be the subject of my next Column as it is [...]

2021: A Space Odyssey, Part 1

2021-09-26T13:18:31-05:00September 26th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The recent run of dry weather, with some areas of the United States also experiencing extended summer warmth, has accelerated early harvest progress. By the time you read this it would not be surprising if the 2021 US corn harvest [...]

Hillary, Walter, and John

2021-08-25T11:26:23-05:00August 25th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’ve been working on this column for nearly two weeks. Every time I started to make headway, I would come upon a question I couldn’t answer, and I recalled fondly the times in my life when I had my good [...]

Wind of Change

2021-08-09T16:32:40-05:00August 8th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Those of you who have been with me through the years will recall I’m an advocate of Chaos Theory. I was first introduced to the idea by James Gleick’s definitive book “Chaos: Making a New Science”, and later “The Misbehavior [...]

Dog Days Ahead

2021-07-25T16:59:01-05:00July 25th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

August is known for a number of things; Being named after Caesar Augustus, the birth month of many famous folks through the ages (A short list including William Clark (1) and Meriwether Lewis (18), Lucille Ball (6), Steve Martin and [...]

All Things Considered

2021-07-05T17:00:21-05:00July 5th, 2021|Weekly Column|

I’ve been working on a project since USDA released its June 1 stocks-on-hand report last Wednesday. This time around I’m taking a look at corn, with soybeans and wheat to follow soon after. Why start with corn? There are a [...]

Squeezing Shorts

2021-06-13T10:22:41-05:00June 13th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

My friend Mike Pearson invited me to be the guest on his “Farming in the 605” podcast, sponsored by South Dakota Corn. Late in the conversation, if my memory serves, the discussion turned to the investment side of the commodity [...]

Two Roads

2021-06-06T08:52:51-05:00June 6th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

"Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, and sorry I could not travel both, and be one traveler, long I stood and looked down as far as I could to where it bent in the undergrowth; Then took the other, [...]

Waiting for Wheat Harvest

2021-05-31T14:45:46-05:00May 31st, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Somehow, the last day of May is upon us. It seems like only yesterday when Justin Timberlake’s singing of “It’s gonna be may (me)” was all over social media. Now, though, when we wake up Tuesday morning meteorological summer will [...]

After the Tipping Point, Gravity

2021-05-25T20:48:03-05:00May 25th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Following Tuesday’s close in the grain and oilseed complex, a day that saw old-crop July corn fall its daily limit 40 cents before closing 37 cents lower, the question on everyone’s mind was “Why?”. You folks are familiar with my [...]

Everything is Transitory

2021-05-16T10:53:49-05:00May 16th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The discussion over inflation grew louder last week after the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both came in much higher than expected. I always get a chuckle out of that phrase, “higher/lower than expected”, because [...]

Putting the Fun in Fundamentals

2021-04-25T11:54:32-05:00April 25th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

From a fundamental point of view, this coming week is going to be “fun”. Now that May option expiration is out of the way, and the hilarity any option expiration day can bring, the focus now is on the delivery [...]

Corn Comparisons

2021-04-18T18:46:40-05:00April 18th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As hard as it is to believe, we have already passed the midpoint of meteorological spring here in North America. Yet as I type this out, the forecast for Omaha (and much of the rest of the US Midwest) calls [...]

1 Thing

2021-04-11T09:56:21-05:00April 11th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

How many of you remember the movie “City Slickers”? It’s hard to believe but it was released 30 years ago this summer and starred Billy Crystal, Daniel Stern (also known as one of the Wet Bandits from “Home Alone”), Bruno [...]

Forward Thinking

2021-03-28T10:26:03-05:00March 28th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

If you’ve been paying attention to ag media recently, you know talking about futures spreads and forward curves has become “cool”, much more so than it was 18 months ago. Recall then the favored themes were trade wars are good [...]


2021-03-21T11:38:50-05:00March 21st, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

A friend of mine is a well-known ag reporter for a major international media outlet. As this past week unfolded the highlight was four consecutive days, Tuesday through Friday, of announced old-crop corn sales to China totaling 152.6 million bushels. [...]

Spring Training

2021-02-28T10:14:02-06:00February 28th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

It’s the last day of February, meaning the last day of meteorological winter. In honor of the day, Major League Baseball has scheduled its first games of Spring Training for Sunday, the first sign meteorological spring begins with when the [...]

Animal Crackers

2021-02-21T10:58:59-06:00February 21st, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

A look at the calendar shows North America has one more week of winter before meteorological spring begins on March 1. A year ago at this time, the world was just waking to the realization of a potential pandemic, paving [...]

One for the Road

2021-02-15T08:50:41-06:00February 15th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I spent this past weekend putting together a market presentation I’ll be giving, in person, in Hutchinson, Minnesota later this week. As I was working, it dawned on me to go back and look at the last time I was [...]

People Get Ready

2021-02-07T10:09:22-06:00February 7th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

“There’s a train a-coming…” One of the hot topics this past week was news that the CME Group had announced its plans to increase “both spot-month and all-months combined speculative limits effective March 15.” (National Grain and Feed Association Newsletter; [...]

The World That We’ve Created

2021-01-30T11:28:52-06:00January 30th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

January has come and gone, and what a month it was. History books will forever talk about the attempted overthrow of democracy early in the month, while a mere two weeks later the scene at the exact same spot was [...]

$20 Soybeans!

2021-01-24T09:03:47-06:00January 24th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

“Now that I have your attention, soybeans could also fall back to less than $10.” Some of you may remember, but that was the opening line to my first weekly column with DTN back in early 2004. (I asked if [...]

The Sun Also Rises

2021-01-17T12:33:36-06:00January 17th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’ve been thinking a lot about Ernest Hemingway lately. Every time I look in the mirror I’m reminded of The Old Man and the Sea. When I watch the news regarding the political situation in the United States, For Whom [...]

A Week Not Soon Forgotten

2021-01-10T07:12:15-06:00January 9th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

There are points in time that for the rest of our lives we remember where we were and what we were doing. For me it is watching Richard Nixon’s resignation speech from the little living room in our house in [...]

A Look Back Before Moving Forward

2020-12-31T12:59:28-06:00December 31st, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

There will be a lot of negative pieces posted talking about how terrible 2020 was. The problems are well known, with the deaths tied to Covid-19 staggering. But there were bright spots as well, things that happened over the last [...]

Three Kings

2020-12-24T11:11:31-06:00December 24th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Often this time of year, I bring up the subject of the Three Kings of Commodities to talk about what may be in store for the year ahead. This year, given the Great Conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn, a rare [...]

Applying the Rules

2020-12-20T10:02:40-06:00December 20th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’m bullish soybeans. I wanted to get that out of the way right off the bat, because I’ve had a history of not being bullish soybeans, though the evolution of my opinion has been well documented over the course of [...]

Confidence Man

2020-12-05T09:21:09-06:00December 5th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

“How confident are you?” The question was asked as part of a conversation with a friend regarding my Friday morning Chart of the Day, “December 2021 Corn: Change Could Be Coming”. Maybe it had something to do with the vagueness [...]

The Price is Right

2020-11-22T13:32:42-06:00November 22nd, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I started this past week off with Monday’s Morning Commentary titled, “It Should Be an Interesting Week”, and as we watched the days unfold through Friday’s close that's exactly how most markets played out. Along the way, I had some [...]

The Winner

2020-11-08T10:51:44-06:00November 8th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The 2020 US Presidential Election looks to have been decided, though not conceded, with Joe Biden the next President of the United States. Looking at totals from the Associated Press, Mr. Biden not only achieved the needed 270 electoral votes [...]

It’s Good to Be King

2020-11-01T08:17:37-06:00November 1st, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

King Corn has been on my mind a lot lately and judging by the questions I’ve received from many of you (a big ‘Thank You’ to all) the market is on your mind as well. While soybeans are the most [...]

Halftime Report

2020-10-18T08:15:53-05:00October 18th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Based on the meteorological calendar that has fall running from September 1 through November 30, a span of 91 days, we officially reached the Halftime of Autumn at roughly noon this past Friday. We’ve all seen enough televised sports to [...]

Whys Guy

2020-10-10T08:18:13-05:00October 10th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As many of you will recall, Newsom’s Rule #5 states: It’s the what, not the why; meaning when we are faced with trying to figure out a market, the most important factor is what is happening rather than why something [...]

The Difference a Year Makes

2020-10-04T10:45:00-05:00October 4th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

It was a year ago to the day (October 4) that I got into a spirited debate with other analysts on the merits of using futures spreads to better understand supply and demand, rather than being solely reliant on misinformation [...]

Weekend Roundup

2020-09-26T09:01:13-05:00September 26th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As you’ve likely heard or read me say before, we usually have CNBC on the television here in the basement office of Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. And yes, as is my nature, I spend more time than I should probably [...]

Ebb and Flow

2020-09-19T09:39:55-05:00September 19th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Since the week of August 24, 2020, the three major US stock market indexes have seen these results: The Nasdaq has dropped 902.35 points, or 7.7% The S&P 500 has fallen 188.54 points, or 5.4% The Dow Jones Industrial Average [...]

The Gamblers’ Secret

2020-09-07T07:02:00-05:00September 6th, 2020|Weekly Column|

We’ve reached Labor Day weekend here in the United States, the unofficial threshold of fall harvest season. And as with everything else about 2020, recent market action in corn and soybeans has complicated the decision of what to store and [...]

The Summer of Our Discontent

2020-08-28T11:14:12-05:00August 28th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As we get ready to turn the calendar page from August to September, we must acknowledge the end of meteorological summer is at hand. And what a summer it has been; a season that included a derecho, continued drought, dual [...]

Private Tours

2020-08-23T09:44:40-05:00August 22nd, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Those of you who have followed me over the years are familiar with my belief that data collection, organization, and dissemination should be privatized. This is based on the age-old business proverb, “You get what you pay for”, meaning “the [...]

Therapy Session

2020-08-15T09:57:32-05:00August 15th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

“Hello, my name is Darin and I’m a soybean market bear.” The first step to any recovery program is to admit you have a problem, which I have now done. Those of you who have been with me over the [...]

An Introduction

2020-07-18T13:12:58-05:00July 18th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This past week saw a lot of folks join our group, some using the free trial as an introduction not only to all we have available on the website, but to my analysis and commentary as well. It just so [...]

What We’ve Got Here

2020-07-11T11:52:11-05:00July 11th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

A popular subject of discussion Friday afternoon was the double-digit sell-off by corn following the release of USDA’s July Supply and Demand reports. Yes, the September contract closed 11 1/2 cents while December dropped 12 1/4, due in part to [...]

Just My Type

2020-07-03T08:18:49-05:00July 3rd, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’ve recently brought up a favorite subject of mine, Market Types. Way back when humans gathered together every day (a novel concept these days) in trading pits, waiting for the chaos the opening bell would bring, we could study a [...]

Wheat: The Roach

2020-06-28T07:08:29-05:00June 28th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As you know from previous columns, summer wheat harvest has long been my favorite time of year. This weekend, a good friend of mine has been posting pictures of his family harvesting their crop in Oklahoma, with every picture bringing [...]

Soybeans: The Conundrum

2020-06-27T09:12:32-05:00June 27th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

A conundrum is defined as “A problem admitting of no satisfactory solution”, fitting perfectly with my view of soybeans as we head into the June 30 Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports. Those of you who have been with me over [...]

Corn: The Reality

2020-06-26T11:16:18-05:00June 26th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As we prepare for another round of June Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports, the underlying question has to be: What is the reality of the corn market? In this column I’m going to discuss all the factors I see, providing [...]

Take It to the Piggy Bank

2020-06-13T08:40:49-05:00June 13th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As you know, I often get ideas for my Weekly Columns from conversations I have with all of you. It is always interesting to hear what is going on in the real world, then try to apply it to what [...]

Sorting Through the BS on SB

2020-06-06T07:22:43-05:00June 6th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The soybean (SB) market was back in the spotlight this past week, starting with President Trump’s comments a week ago this past Friday on China and Hong Kong. And while the president came up short of announcing new tariffs and [...]

King Corn and Queequeg’s Coffin

2020-05-31T09:21:18-05:00May 31st, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

'Call me Ishmael." Or not, since that isn’t my name, but I’ll answer to almost anything. As I watched the events of the past week, I couldn’t help but think of the monomaniacal Captain Ahab and his ill-fated whaling boat [...]

Wheat Is on the Table

2020-05-25T09:30:41-05:00May 25th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As I’ve said many times over the last couple months, everything we do from here on out constitutes a “new normal”. A case in point is last week’s Kansas wheat tour, an event that usually occurs in early May and [...]


2020-05-15T05:17:12-05:00May 15th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The question I’ve been asked more than any other of late falls along this line, “What do you make of the bullish soybean futures spreads?” It’s a great question, and one that when combined with what we think we know [...]

The Chain

2020-05-08T06:20:31-05:00May 8th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

We all have times in our lives when we wish we could once again talk to those who have gone on before us. Personally, I’d give almost anything to sit down over a cup of coffee with Dad, maybe a [...]

Pick Your Bottom

2020-05-02T08:57:30-05:00May 2nd, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Like most businesses that deal with people’s money, the basement office of Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. has financial news running on the television at all hours. The particular outlet we watch (CNBC) has a question it likes to ask of [...]

The Most

2020-04-25T11:14:29-05:00April 25th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

What a week this past week was. If you could imagine it happening, including a commodity going below $0, it did. We also saw another king put on life support, wheat react as only wheat can to a spring freeze, [...]

Life Below Zero

2020-04-21T07:29:06-05:00April 20th, 2020|Public, Weekly Column|

“After all, we are dealing with a new normal.” That’s how I ended my Weekly Column, “Rule #6”, this past weekend, and it rings even truer Monday afternoon following a historic day in the crude oil market. I was on [...]

Rule #6

2020-04-21T07:31:26-05:00April 18th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

When an animal is injured, it returns to its lair. When a child is sick, it wants nothing more than to cuddle with its mother. And when markets are awash in uncertainty --these times being the most uncertain of any [...]

Demanding Times

2020-04-10T07:30:34-05:00April 10th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’ve recently been reminded of a story from 2009. At the Grapevine, Texas edition of Commodity Classic that year, after giving my Early Riser Market Presentation, complete with question and answer (always one of my favorite parts of any presentation), [...]


2020-04-04T08:45:37-05:00April 4th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This was another week when the column writing process went through a number of changes. Initially I was thinking of expanding on my post-USDA Quarterly Stocks comments, but then life got in the way. As the week progressed I heard [...]

The Other Side

2020-03-27T18:33:42-05:00March 27th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This is one of those weeks when I could write a column about a hundred different things, and my ideas bounced from one to the next with each passing day. We saw an historic rally in U.S. stock markets, a [...]

Simple Rules

2020-03-20T07:02:07-05:00March 20th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

With all hell seemingly breaking loose -- both inside and outside the market arena -- we have been reminded countless times that if we want to save the planet we must follow a few simple rules: Wash your hands for [...]

Take a Breath

2020-03-16T10:56:18-05:00March 16th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Something doesn’t feel right. The world seems to be crumbling all around us, but is it really? Is the key word in all that “seems”? And if so, would we not be well advised to remember the old saying, “Not [...]

A Corona (Virus) to Start the Day

2020-03-13T08:20:03-05:00March 13th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As I watched market activity unfold this past week, I knew it would be difficult to trim my Weekly Column to just one topic. With that in mind, I’m putting this piece together as a series of thoughts and observations [...]

Four Months, Three Kings

2020-02-28T05:12:50-06:00February 28th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This week has been one for the history books. As the coronavirus spreads from continent to continent, making its way around the world, global markets are collapsing at a record pace. Here at the headquarters of Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc., [...]

Spread the Word

2020-02-22T06:31:39-06:00February 22nd, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

For a holiday-shortened week, due to this past Monday’s U.S. government holiday, this sure seemed like a long week. There was a lot going on, starting with a spur of the moment drive Sunday evening to Spencer, Iowa to speak [...]

Following all the Rules (Part 1)

2020-02-15T07:45:18-06:00February 15th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I admit it, I’m biased. Yes, I’ve been bearish soybeans since before Donald Trump was awarded enough electoral college votes back in 2016 to hold the title of President of the United States. How many of my own market rules [...]

Caveat Emptor

2020-02-07T06:27:35-06:00February 7th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Earlier this week I had the opportunity to speak at a meeting hosted by some friends of mine, a father and son running a crop insurance agency out of Ceresco, Nebraska. I’ve been giving market talks at this meeting for [...]

The Fog of Winter

2020-01-31T09:56:28-06:00January 31st, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The end of January is upon us, with Groundhog Day on the calendar this coming weekend. Those of you who have followed me over the years know the great importance I put on whether or not Punxsutawney Phil sees his [...]

Blinded by Faith and Bias

2020-01-24T16:28:30-06:00January 24th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’m writing this column Friday afternoon, after most of the markets have closed for the week but before the end of the week bourbon takes effect. Warm jazz is on the radio while a normal Midwest winter’s chill lingers outside. [...]

Set Phasers to One

2020-01-17T06:04:28-06:00January 17th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As we all know by now, this past Wednesday, Jan. 15 was signing day for the phase-one trade deal between the United States and China. And though the ink has been on the paper a little over 24 hours, I’ve [...]

2020 Vision

2020-01-03T07:11:21-06:00January 3rd, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

It’s that time of year when everyone is out making predictions for the new year, that time immediately following the holiday season and end-of-year top stories. Regarding the latter, if we are honest with ourselves, there were only three that [...]

The End Is Near

2019-12-20T06:17:01-06:00December 20th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’ll let you in on a little secret -- 2019 is almost over. Yes, I know all of you will be greatly disappointed that this year of years is finally coming to an end, but December 31 is quickly approaching. [...]

What Luck

2019-12-13T06:41:02-06:00December 13th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Yes, today is Friday the 13th and, as some of you know, I’ve always viewed this as a lucky day. But then again, as someone commented to me Thursday, “I’m worried that you lost your mind … .” He may [...]

Unlearned Leadership

2019-12-07T10:33:48-06:00December 7th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

A year ago to the day, my Weekly Column was titled “Lessons from Chosin”. In it I summarized the famed battle from the Korean “Police Action” (undeclared war), when General Douglas MacArthur sent U.S. troops north from Inchon to quickly [...]

When Does the Rubber Band Snap?

2019-11-22T05:20:51-06:00November 22nd, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Usually, once we get this deep into November, there is little happening in markets as everyone’s thoughts have turned to the holidays. Approaching quickly is Thanksgiving here in the United States rolling around Thursday, Nov. 28. Rather than talking technical [...]

Let’s Get Real

2019-11-08T06:05:14-06:00November 8th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Here we are again, the morning of another monthly USDA Supply and Demand report. It wasn’t all that long ago the November report was largely ignored, with folks already in holiday mode while seasonal Hallmark movies played in the background. [...]

Where Have All the Flowers Gone?

2019-10-25T14:58:37-05:00October 25th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

A friend sent me a message this past week. It wasn’t so much a question as it was a statement, “Years ago there was so much optimism, good prices in corn and soybeans with ethanol and large annual bean sales [...]

The Decision (Part 2): New-Crop

2019-10-21T06:36:31-05:00October 21st, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Last time, in The Decision (Part 1): Old-Crop, I talked about the rather straight forward issue of what crop to hold (between corn and soybeans), hedge and roll and what crop to sell up front. The decision was based on [...]

The Decision (Part 1): Old-Crop

2019-10-18T09:46:12-05:00October 18th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Keep in mind it’s October and Halloween is drawing near. That means there are all kinds of scary, spooky movies to be watched and books to be read. Heck, one can even go back and search for the most frightening [...]

Rolling in Soybeans

2019-10-11T06:16:05-05:00October 11th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Though it is hard for me to believe, USDA report days are more exhausting now than back in my former life when I had to immediately turn around and put together a 1-hour webinar, followed by a written Report Review. [...]

Breaking Winds of Change

2019-10-04T05:33:47-05:00October 4th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Shortly after the release of USDA’s Quarterly Stocks report this past Monday, I received a message on Twitter asking, “What can be done about USDA screwing us and then correcting it after the crop year when we are all sold [...]

War Drums and Rain Dances

2019-09-21T06:42:27-05:00September 21st, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

According to news reports, late this week saw a mid-level meeting in Washington, D.C. between the Chinese and U.S. trade teams, a precursor to what have been labeled high-level talks next month in Beijing (if I recall correctly). Of course [...]

A Week to Remember

2019-09-16T06:04:15-05:00September 14th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’ve started this column at least a half-dozen times, always coming up with a different topic to talk about following what was certainly a week to remember. As I make my way through the normal Weekly Analysis I do, nearly [...]

Stool Sample

2019-09-06T08:14:00-05:00September 6th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Those of you who have been with me through the years recall that I like to describe U.S. corn demand as a three-legged stool. These legs -- feed, ethanol, and exports -- were weakened over the course of the 2018-2019 [...]

Road Show Journal

2019-08-31T10:19:20-05:00August 31st, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

August 26: It’s early morning, and I will soon be embarking on a road trip across the great U.S. Midwest. This cmdty Exchange (Barchart) excursion will cover five states in five days, starting in Fort Dodge, Iowa later today. I [...]


2019-08-23T05:49:48-05:00August 23rd, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The end of August will soon be upon us. What does that mean? For one thing, the last day of August marks the last day of meteorological summer, opening the door for autumn with the next sunrise. I like summer, [...]

Demand More

2019-08-16T08:22:18-05:00August 16th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Corn has become King again with nearly every question I receive having to do with what is both the simplest and most complex of markets. If you recall last week’s column, “Two Out of Three Are Bad”, I talked about [...]

Two Out of Three Are Bad

2019-08-09T04:23:57-05:00August 9th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

There are a number of things I could talk about in this week’s column, from Thursday’s soybean rally and Newsom’s Market Rule #5 to the sandwich associated with each state. But as I look back over the conversations I’ve had [...]

I’m Glad You Asked

2019-08-03T08:28:32-05:00August 3rd, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

First, I apologize for this column being a bit late. It was a busy week, one that found me speaking at a meeting in Willmar, Minnesota Thursday and participating as the guest analyst on Friday’s Iowa Public Television program Market [...]

“It’s the Weather, Stupid”

2019-07-26T05:45:26-05:00July 26th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Picture this: It’s late August 1992 and I’m sitting in my small hometown commodity brokerage office located in the main building of the grain cooperative. I’m still a relative greenhorn, having had my Series 3 commodity license for less than [...]

Talking Corn Over Coffee

2019-07-19T05:41:08-05:00July 19th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I think it’s safe to say corn has been on nearly everyone’s mind of late. Most of the correspondence I’ve received over the last few weeks has had to do with old King Corn, with topics ranging from the most [...]

The Numbers Game

2019-07-11T05:57:44-05:00July 11th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Yes, it’s that time of the month again. Later today USDA will unveil its latest guesses on old-crop ending stocks and new-crop supply and demand. I know a lot of folks get aggravated when I call what USDA does “guessing,” [...]

Spent Shells

2019-07-05T07:17:40-05:00July 5th, 2019|Commentary, Uncategorized, Weekly Column|

It's Friday, July 5th, the day after the official July 4th holiday here in the U.S., and 3 days after what John Adams considered the real Independence Day of July 2. The sunrise is hazy due to the still lingering [...]


2019-06-27T17:24:11-05:00June 28th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As most of you know, I recently made an appearance on Farm Journal’s television program “U.S. Farm Report.” While there, and on air, host Tyne Morgan asked me and the other guest analyst Tommy Grisafi a number of thought-provoking questions, [...]

Keep Moving Forward

2019-06-21T03:52:25-05:00June 21st, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This column originates (as so many of them do) with a question from a friend. This week a gentleman, after reading some of my daily commentary, sent me a message stating, “I know what carry is, but I want to [...]

“Abby Normal”

2019-06-15T10:44:49-05:00June 15th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Those of you who have followed me over the years recall that one of my favorite movies, without question, is Mel Brooks’ “Young Frankenstein”. This was Brooks, Gene Wilder, Marty Feldman, Teri Garr, and the rest of the cast at [...]

Wild, Wild Wheat

2019-06-06T20:31:55-05:00June 7th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’m going to throw a set of price changes at you: +18 3/4, -7 1/2 (and 28 off its high), +25 3/4, -6 (and 17 off its high), +13 3/4, -18 1/4, -22 3/4, and +9 1/2 (14 1/4 cents [...]

How High

2019-05-31T04:13:34-05:00May 31st, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The explosive rally in corn, soybeans, wheat, etc., over the last couple of weeks has filled my email and direct messages on Twitter with questions. Lots of questions. But, as you can guess, there is one that is asked more [...]

Soybeans (Part 3): Soybeanian Rhapsody

2019-05-25T05:50:11-05:00May 25th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

To recap our previous two discussion, we see based on technical analysis the soybean markets (cash, new-crop futures) are bullish and fundamental analysis shows us the old-crop U.S. situation is more bearish than it has ever been in modern history. [...]

Soybeans (Part 1): Picasso’s Bull

2019-05-23T11:02:14-05:00May 23rd, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Let’s start on the technical, or chart based, side of the market this time, shall we? I’m writing this piece early Thursday morning, meaning there’s a chance things could change  technically by the time the final closing bell rings (figuratively) [...]

Weathering the Markets

2019-05-17T07:13:36-05:00May 17th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

It has been a wild week in the grain and oilseed markets with corn and soybeans posting strong rallies and bullish technical signals (as of this writing). All this after last Friday’s (yes only a week ago) May round of [...]

Friday Morning Thoughts

2019-05-11T09:52:48-05:00May 10th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’m going to let Mr. Charles Dickens open my column for me this week: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was [...]

Comments, Questions, and Concerns

2019-05-03T04:26:20-05:00May 3rd, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

It has been another busy week on Twitter with conversations covering a wide range of subjects. One of the more humorous observations was from my friend and host of the Iowa Public Television show Market to Market, Delaney Howell. She [...]

Our National Pastime

2019-04-26T10:19:58-05:00April 26th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As most of you know, it’s baseball season and I enjoy baseball more than most other U.S. sports. There was a time when baseball was considered the National Pastime here in the United States, with one automotive company including it [...]

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