A Week Not Soon Forgotten

2021-01-10T07:12:15-06:00January 9th, 2021|Commentary, Weekly Column|

There are points in time that for the rest of our lives we remember where we were and what we were doing. For me it is watching Richard Nixon’s resignation speech from the little living room in our house in [...]

A Look Back Before Moving Forward

2020-12-31T12:59:28-06:00December 31st, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

There will be a lot of negative pieces posted talking about how terrible 2020 was. The problems are well known, with the deaths tied to Covid-19 staggering. But there were bright spots as well, things that happened over the last [...]

Three Kings

2020-12-24T11:11:31-06:00December 24th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Often this time of year, I bring up the subject of the Three Kings of Commodities to talk about what may be in store for the year ahead. This year, given the Great Conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn, a rare [...]

Applying the Rules

2020-12-20T10:02:40-06:00December 20th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’m bullish soybeans. I wanted to get that out of the way right off the bat, because I’ve had a history of not being bullish soybeans, though the evolution of my opinion has been well documented over the course of [...]

Confidence Man

2020-12-05T09:21:09-06:00December 5th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

“How confident are you?” The question was asked as part of a conversation with a friend regarding my Friday morning Chart of the Day, “December 2021 Corn: Change Could Be Coming”. Maybe it had something to do with the vagueness [...]

The Price is Right

2020-11-22T13:32:42-06:00November 22nd, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I started this past week off with Monday’s Morning Commentary titled, “It Should Be an Interesting Week”, and as we watched the days unfold through Friday’s close that's exactly how most markets played out. Along the way, I had some [...]

The Winner

2020-11-08T10:51:44-06:00November 8th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The 2020 US Presidential Election looks to have been decided, though not conceded, with Joe Biden the next President of the United States. Looking at totals from the Associated Press, Mr. Biden not only achieved the needed 270 electoral votes [...]

It’s Good to Be King

2020-11-01T08:17:37-06:00November 1st, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

King Corn has been on my mind a lot lately and judging by the questions I’ve received from many of you (a big ‘Thank You’ to all) the market is on your mind as well. While soybeans are the most [...]

Halftime Report

2020-10-18T08:15:53-05:00October 18th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Based on the meteorological calendar that has fall running from September 1 through November 30, a span of 91 days, we officially reached the Halftime of Autumn at roughly noon this past Friday. We’ve all seen enough televised sports to [...]

Whys Guy

2020-10-10T08:18:13-05:00October 10th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As many of you will recall, Newsom’s Rule #5 states: It’s the what, not the why; meaning when we are faced with trying to figure out a market, the most important factor is what is happening rather than why something [...]

The Difference a Year Makes

2020-10-04T10:45:00-05:00October 4th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

It was a year ago to the day (October 4) that I got into a spirited debate with other analysts on the merits of using futures spreads to better understand supply and demand, rather than being solely reliant on misinformation [...]

Weekend Roundup

2020-09-26T09:01:13-05:00September 26th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As you’ve likely heard or read me say before, we usually have CNBC on the television here in the basement office of Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. And yes, as is my nature, I spend more time than I should probably [...]

Ebb and Flow

2020-09-19T09:39:55-05:00September 19th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Since the week of August 24, 2020, the three major US stock market indexes have seen these results: The Nasdaq has dropped 902.35 points, or 7.7% The S&P 500 has fallen 188.54 points, or 5.4% The Dow Jones Industrial Average [...]

The Gamblers’ Secret

2020-09-07T07:02:00-05:00September 6th, 2020|Weekly Column|

We’ve reached Labor Day weekend here in the United States, the unofficial threshold of fall harvest season. And as with everything else about 2020, recent market action in corn and soybeans has complicated the decision of what to store and [...]

The Summer of Our Discontent

2020-08-28T11:14:12-05:00August 28th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As we get ready to turn the calendar page from August to September, we must acknowledge the end of meteorological summer is at hand. And what a summer it has been; a season that included a derecho, continued drought, dual [...]

Private Tours

2020-08-23T09:44:40-05:00August 22nd, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Those of you who have followed me over the years are familiar with my belief that data collection, organization, and dissemination should be privatized. This is based on the age-old business proverb, “You get what you pay for”, meaning “the [...]

Therapy Session

2020-08-15T09:57:32-05:00August 15th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

“Hello, my name is Darin and I’m a soybean market bear.” The first step to any recovery program is to admit you have a problem, which I have now done. Those of you who have been with me over the [...]

An Introduction

2020-07-18T13:12:58-05:00July 18th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This past week saw a lot of folks join our group, some using the free trial as an introduction not only to all we have available on the website, but to my analysis and commentary as well. It just so [...]

What We’ve Got Here

2020-07-11T11:52:11-05:00July 11th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

A popular subject of discussion Friday afternoon was the double-digit sell-off by corn following the release of USDA’s July Supply and Demand reports. Yes, the September contract closed 11 1/2 cents while December dropped 12 1/4, due in part to [...]

Just My Type

2020-07-03T08:18:49-05:00July 3rd, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’ve recently brought up a favorite subject of mine, Market Types. Way back when humans gathered together every day (a novel concept these days) in trading pits, waiting for the chaos the opening bell would bring, we could study a [...]

Wheat: The Roach

2020-06-28T07:08:29-05:00June 28th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As you know from previous columns, summer wheat harvest has long been my favorite time of year. This weekend, a good friend of mine has been posting pictures of his family harvesting their crop in Oklahoma, with every picture bringing [...]

Soybeans: The Conundrum

2020-06-27T09:12:32-05:00June 27th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

A conundrum is defined as “A problem admitting of no satisfactory solution”, fitting perfectly with my view of soybeans as we head into the June 30 Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports. Those of you who have been with me over [...]

Corn: The Reality

2020-06-26T11:16:18-05:00June 26th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As we prepare for another round of June Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports, the underlying question has to be: What is the reality of the corn market? In this column I’m going to discuss all the factors I see, providing [...]

Take It to the Piggy Bank

2020-06-13T08:40:49-05:00June 13th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As you know, I often get ideas for my Weekly Columns from conversations I have with all of you. It is always interesting to hear what is going on in the real world, then try to apply it to what [...]

Sorting Through the BS on SB

2020-06-06T07:22:43-05:00June 6th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The soybean (SB) market was back in the spotlight this past week, starting with President Trump’s comments a week ago this past Friday on China and Hong Kong. And while the president came up short of announcing new tariffs and [...]

King Corn and Queequeg’s Coffin

2020-05-31T09:21:18-05:00May 31st, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

'Call me Ishmael." Or not, since that isn’t my name, but I’ll answer to almost anything. As I watched the events of the past week, I couldn’t help but think of the monomaniacal Captain Ahab and his ill-fated whaling boat [...]

Wheat Is on the Table

2020-05-25T09:30:41-05:00May 25th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As I’ve said many times over the last couple months, everything we do from here on out constitutes a “new normal”. A case in point is last week’s Kansas wheat tour, an event that usually occurs in early May and [...]

Confusion

2020-05-15T05:17:12-05:00May 15th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The question I’ve been asked more than any other of late falls along this line, “What do you make of the bullish soybean futures spreads?” It’s a great question, and one that when combined with what we think we know [...]

The Chain

2020-05-08T06:20:31-05:00May 8th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

We all have times in our lives when we wish we could once again talk to those who have gone on before us. Personally, I’d give almost anything to sit down over a cup of coffee with Dad, maybe a [...]

Pick Your Bottom

2020-05-02T08:57:30-05:00May 2nd, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Like most businesses that deal with people’s money, the basement office of Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. has financial news running on the television at all hours. The particular outlet we watch (CNBC) has a question it likes to ask of [...]

The Most

2020-04-25T11:14:29-05:00April 25th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

What a week this past week was. If you could imagine it happening, including a commodity going below $0, it did. We also saw another king put on life support, wheat react as only wheat can to a spring freeze, [...]

Life Below Zero

2020-04-21T07:29:06-05:00April 20th, 2020|Public, Weekly Column|

“After all, we are dealing with a new normal.” That’s how I ended my Weekly Column, “Rule #6”, this past weekend, and it rings even truer Monday afternoon following a historic day in the crude oil market. I was on [...]

Rule #6

2020-04-21T07:31:26-05:00April 18th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

When an animal is injured, it returns to its lair. When a child is sick, it wants nothing more than to cuddle with its mother. And when markets are awash in uncertainty --these times being the most uncertain of any [...]

Demanding Times

2020-04-10T07:30:34-05:00April 10th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’ve recently been reminded of a story from 2009. At the Grapevine, Texas edition of Commodity Classic that year, after giving my Early Riser Market Presentation, complete with question and answer (always one of my favorite parts of any presentation), [...]

Limbo

2020-04-04T08:45:37-05:00April 4th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This was another week when the column writing process went through a number of changes. Initially I was thinking of expanding on my post-USDA Quarterly Stocks comments, but then life got in the way. As the week progressed I heard [...]

The Other Side

2020-03-27T18:33:42-05:00March 27th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This is one of those weeks when I could write a column about a hundred different things, and my ideas bounced from one to the next with each passing day. We saw an historic rally in U.S. stock markets, a [...]

Simple Rules

2020-03-20T07:02:07-05:00March 20th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

With all hell seemingly breaking loose -- both inside and outside the market arena -- we have been reminded countless times that if we want to save the planet we must follow a few simple rules: Wash your hands for [...]

Take a Breath

2020-03-16T10:56:18-05:00March 16th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Something doesn’t feel right. The world seems to be crumbling all around us, but is it really? Is the key word in all that “seems”? And if so, would we not be well advised to remember the old saying, “Not [...]

A Corona (Virus) to Start the Day

2020-03-13T08:20:03-05:00March 13th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As I watched market activity unfold this past week, I knew it would be difficult to trim my Weekly Column to just one topic. With that in mind, I’m putting this piece together as a series of thoughts and observations [...]

Four Months, Three Kings

2020-02-28T05:12:50-06:00February 28th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This week has been one for the history books. As the coronavirus spreads from continent to continent, making its way around the world, global markets are collapsing at a record pace. Here at the headquarters of Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc., [...]

Spread the Word

2020-02-22T06:31:39-06:00February 22nd, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

For a holiday-shortened week, due to this past Monday’s U.S. government holiday, this sure seemed like a long week. There was a lot going on, starting with a spur of the moment drive Sunday evening to Spencer, Iowa to speak [...]

Following all the Rules (Part 1)

2020-02-15T07:45:18-06:00February 15th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I admit it, I’m biased. Yes, I’ve been bearish soybeans since before Donald Trump was awarded enough electoral college votes back in 2016 to hold the title of President of the United States. How many of my own market rules [...]

Caveat Emptor

2020-02-07T06:27:35-06:00February 7th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Earlier this week I had the opportunity to speak at a meeting hosted by some friends of mine, a father and son running a crop insurance agency out of Ceresco, Nebraska. I’ve been giving market talks at this meeting for [...]

The Fog of Winter

2020-01-31T09:56:28-06:00January 31st, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The end of January is upon us, with Groundhog Day on the calendar this coming weekend. Those of you who have followed me over the years know the great importance I put on whether or not Punxsutawney Phil sees his [...]

Blinded by Faith and Bias

2020-01-24T16:28:30-06:00January 24th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’m writing this column Friday afternoon, after most of the markets have closed for the week but before the end of the week bourbon takes effect. Warm jazz is on the radio while a normal Midwest winter’s chill lingers outside. [...]

Set Phasers to One

2020-01-17T06:04:28-06:00January 17th, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As we all know by now, this past Wednesday, Jan. 15 was signing day for the phase-one trade deal between the United States and China. And though the ink has been on the paper a little over 24 hours, I’ve [...]

2020 Vision

2020-01-03T07:11:21-06:00January 3rd, 2020|Commentary, Weekly Column|

It’s that time of year when everyone is out making predictions for the new year, that time immediately following the holiday season and end-of-year top stories. Regarding the latter, if we are honest with ourselves, there were only three that [...]

The End Is Near

2019-12-20T06:17:01-06:00December 20th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’ll let you in on a little secret -- 2019 is almost over. Yes, I know all of you will be greatly disappointed that this year of years is finally coming to an end, but December 31 is quickly approaching. [...]

What Luck

2019-12-13T06:41:02-06:00December 13th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Yes, today is Friday the 13th and, as some of you know, I’ve always viewed this as a lucky day. But then again, as someone commented to me Thursday, “I’m worried that you lost your mind … .” He may [...]

Unlearned Leadership

2019-12-07T10:33:48-06:00December 7th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

A year ago to the day, my Weekly Column was titled “Lessons from Chosin”. In it I summarized the famed battle from the Korean “Police Action” (undeclared war), when General Douglas MacArthur sent U.S. troops north from Inchon to quickly [...]

When Does the Rubber Band Snap?

2019-11-22T05:20:51-06:00November 22nd, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Usually, once we get this deep into November, there is little happening in markets as everyone’s thoughts have turned to the holidays. Approaching quickly is Thanksgiving here in the United States rolling around Thursday, Nov. 28. Rather than talking technical [...]

Let’s Get Real

2019-11-08T06:05:14-06:00November 8th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Here we are again, the morning of another monthly USDA Supply and Demand report. It wasn’t all that long ago the November report was largely ignored, with folks already in holiday mode while seasonal Hallmark movies played in the background. [...]

Where Have All the Flowers Gone?

2019-10-25T14:58:37-05:00October 25th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

A friend sent me a message this past week. It wasn’t so much a question as it was a statement, “Years ago there was so much optimism, good prices in corn and soybeans with ethanol and large annual bean sales [...]

The Decision (Part 2): New-Crop

2019-10-21T06:36:31-05:00October 21st, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Last time, in The Decision (Part 1): Old-Crop, I talked about the rather straight forward issue of what crop to hold (between corn and soybeans), hedge and roll and what crop to sell up front. The decision was based on [...]

The Decision (Part 1): Old-Crop

2019-10-18T09:46:12-05:00October 18th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Keep in mind it’s October and Halloween is drawing near. That means there are all kinds of scary, spooky movies to be watched and books to be read. Heck, one can even go back and search for the most frightening [...]

Rolling in Soybeans

2019-10-11T06:16:05-05:00October 11th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Though it is hard for me to believe, USDA report days are more exhausting now than back in my former life when I had to immediately turn around and put together a 1-hour webinar, followed by a written Report Review. [...]

Breaking Winds of Change

2019-10-04T05:33:47-05:00October 4th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Shortly after the release of USDA’s Quarterly Stocks report this past Monday, I received a message on Twitter asking, “What can be done about USDA screwing us and then correcting it after the crop year when we are all sold [...]

War Drums and Rain Dances

2019-09-21T06:42:27-05:00September 21st, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

According to news reports, late this week saw a mid-level meeting in Washington, D.C. between the Chinese and U.S. trade teams, a precursor to what have been labeled high-level talks next month in Beijing (if I recall correctly). Of course [...]

A Week to Remember

2019-09-16T06:04:15-05:00September 14th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’ve started this column at least a half-dozen times, always coming up with a different topic to talk about following what was certainly a week to remember. As I make my way through the normal Weekly Analysis I do, nearly [...]

Stool Sample

2019-09-06T08:14:00-05:00September 6th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Those of you who have been with me through the years recall that I like to describe U.S. corn demand as a three-legged stool. These legs -- feed, ethanol, and exports -- were weakened over the course of the 2018-2019 [...]

Road Show Journal

2019-08-31T10:19:20-05:00August 31st, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

August 26: It’s early morning, and I will soon be embarking on a road trip across the great U.S. Midwest. This cmdty Exchange (Barchart) excursion will cover five states in five days, starting in Fort Dodge, Iowa later today. I [...]

WTHTAs

2019-08-23T05:49:48-05:00August 23rd, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The end of August will soon be upon us. What does that mean? For one thing, the last day of August marks the last day of meteorological summer, opening the door for autumn with the next sunrise. I like summer, [...]

Demand More

2019-08-16T08:22:18-05:00August 16th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Corn has become King again with nearly every question I receive having to do with what is both the simplest and most complex of markets. If you recall last week’s column, “Two Out of Three Are Bad”, I talked about [...]

Two Out of Three Are Bad

2019-08-09T04:23:57-05:00August 9th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

There are a number of things I could talk about in this week’s column, from Thursday’s soybean rally and Newsom’s Market Rule #5 to the sandwich associated with each state. But as I look back over the conversations I’ve had [...]

I’m Glad You Asked

2019-08-03T08:28:32-05:00August 3rd, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

First, I apologize for this column being a bit late. It was a busy week, one that found me speaking at a meeting in Willmar, Minnesota Thursday and participating as the guest analyst on Friday’s Iowa Public Television program Market [...]

“It’s the Weather, Stupid”

2019-07-26T05:45:26-05:00July 26th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Picture this: It’s late August 1992 and I’m sitting in my small hometown commodity brokerage office located in the main building of the grain cooperative. I’m still a relative greenhorn, having had my Series 3 commodity license for less than [...]

Talking Corn Over Coffee

2019-07-19T05:41:08-05:00July 19th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I think it’s safe to say corn has been on nearly everyone’s mind of late. Most of the correspondence I’ve received over the last few weeks has had to do with old King Corn, with topics ranging from the most [...]

The Numbers Game

2019-07-11T05:57:44-05:00July 11th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Yes, it’s that time of the month again. Later today USDA will unveil its latest guesses on old-crop ending stocks and new-crop supply and demand. I know a lot of folks get aggravated when I call what USDA does “guessing,” [...]

Spent Shells

2019-07-05T07:17:40-05:00July 5th, 2019|Commentary, Uncategorized, Weekly Column|

It's Friday, July 5th, the day after the official July 4th holiday here in the U.S., and 3 days after what John Adams considered the real Independence Day of July 2. The sunrise is hazy due to the still lingering [...]

Unpopular

2019-06-27T17:24:11-05:00June 28th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As most of you know, I recently made an appearance on Farm Journal’s television program “U.S. Farm Report.” While there, and on air, host Tyne Morgan asked me and the other guest analyst Tommy Grisafi a number of thought-provoking questions, [...]

Keep Moving Forward

2019-06-21T03:52:25-05:00June 21st, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This column originates (as so many of them do) with a question from a friend. This week a gentleman, after reading some of my daily commentary, sent me a message stating, “I know what carry is, but I want to [...]

“Abby Normal”

2019-06-15T10:44:49-05:00June 15th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Those of you who have followed me over the years recall that one of my favorite movies, without question, is Mel Brooks’ “Young Frankenstein”. This was Brooks, Gene Wilder, Marty Feldman, Teri Garr, and the rest of the cast at [...]

Wild, Wild Wheat

2019-06-06T20:31:55-05:00June 7th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’m going to throw a set of price changes at you: +18 3/4, -7 1/2 (and 28 off its high), +25 3/4, -6 (and 17 off its high), +13 3/4, -18 1/4, -22 3/4, and +9 1/2 (14 1/4 cents [...]

How High

2019-05-31T04:13:34-05:00May 31st, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The explosive rally in corn, soybeans, wheat, etc., over the last couple of weeks has filled my email and direct messages on Twitter with questions. Lots of questions. But, as you can guess, there is one that is asked more [...]

Soybeans (Part 3): Soybeanian Rhapsody

2019-05-25T05:50:11-05:00May 25th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

To recap our previous two discussion, we see based on technical analysis the soybean markets (cash, new-crop futures) are bullish and fundamental analysis shows us the old-crop U.S. situation is more bearish than it has ever been in modern history. [...]

Soybeans (Part 1): Picasso’s Bull

2019-05-23T11:02:14-05:00May 23rd, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Let’s start on the technical, or chart based, side of the market this time, shall we? I’m writing this piece early Thursday morning, meaning there’s a chance things could change  technically by the time the final closing bell rings (figuratively) [...]

Weathering the Markets

2019-05-17T07:13:36-05:00May 17th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

It has been a wild week in the grain and oilseed markets with corn and soybeans posting strong rallies and bullish technical signals (as of this writing). All this after last Friday’s (yes only a week ago) May round of [...]

Friday Morning Thoughts

2019-05-11T09:52:48-05:00May 10th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I’m going to let Mr. Charles Dickens open my column for me this week: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was [...]

Comments, Questions, and Concerns

2019-05-03T04:26:20-05:00May 3rd, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

It has been another busy week on Twitter with conversations covering a wide range of subjects. One of the more humorous observations was from my friend and host of the Iowa Public Television show Market to Market, Delaney Howell. She [...]

Our National Pastime

2019-04-26T10:19:58-05:00April 26th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As most of you know, it’s baseball season and I enjoy baseball more than most other U.S. sports. There was a time when baseball was considered the National Pastime here in the United States, with one automotive company including it [...]

A Good Walk Spoiled

2019-04-24T06:07:27-05:00April 24th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Except for a couple jogs through various airports, usually Chicago O’Hare, the last 10 months have provided me with plenty of time to catch up on my reading. On my list, so far, has been a rereading of many Sherlock [...]

Buryin’ the Contrarian

2019-04-21T22:58:39-05:00April 22nd, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I was visiting with a customer last week, a farmer from Nebraska if I recall, and the subject turned to the large net-short futures position held by noncommercial traders. As we talked, I mentioned to him that we continue to [...]

Woe is Wheat

2019-04-10T06:27:11-05:00April 10th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I was going to title this piece "The Puzzle (Pt. 2): Wheat," but honestly, wheat isn't really a puzzle. It's bearish. It looks like it's going to stay bearish for the foreseeable future. It's a weed, or as some like [...]

Newsom’s Problem

2019-04-04T05:50:51-05:00April 4th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

For this column, I did some quick internet research on unsolvable math problems. My search quickly led me to a list that included these categories: Hilbert’s Problems, Landau’s Problems, Smale’s Problems, and Thurston’s 24 Questions. In regard to the latter, [...]

The New Normal

2019-03-31T11:49:21-05:00April 1st, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

We are now one week removed from the release of USDA’s March Quarterly Stocks report, a data set that, as we all know, showed grain stocks on hand as of March 1. As I discussed last week, this marked the [...]

Clarity

2019-03-29T06:53:42-05:00March 29th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This week, I’m turning my column into a Report Preview of Friday’s USDA Quarterly Stocks report. Some of you may be asking, “What about Prospective Plantings?”. It’s hard for me to put into words how little I care for, and [...]

When the Waters Broke Free

2019-03-22T06:07:45-05:00March 22nd, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

“It was dark all around, there was frost in the ground, when the ‘waters’ broke free.” On March 6, on the social media site Twitter, I posted this question: Given the deep snow across parts of the U.S. Midwest and [...]

Early Week Observations

2019-03-15T08:11:12-05:00March 15th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I have the privilege of traveling to Montreal, Quebec this week, so as you read this, I will either be getting ready to speak at the Grainwiz: Grow Your Profits Conference or actually speaking during my morning “Rules” workshop session, [...]

Rawhide

2019-03-08T05:28:58-06:00March 8th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

“Rollin’, rollin’ rollin’…” You know the words as well as I do, to the theme song from the old tv western Rawhide. I can’t help but think many are taking this approach to marketing old-crop soybeans and corn as the [...]

A Frozen Start to Spring

2019-02-27T07:58:16-06:00March 1st, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Today (Friday, March 1), according to the meteorological calendar, is the first day of spring. Those of you living in the U.S. Midwest, don’t bother looking outside for signs of green grass and budding flowers. They aren’t there, unless you [...]

The Option Approximation

2019-02-22T06:39:30-06:00February 22nd, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Options. Everyone’s favorite subject. As I’ve made the speaking rounds over the last 15 years, the one subject that brought a glazed eye to those in in attendance like no other was options. Premium, time value, intrinsic value, volatility, strike [...]

My Answer Still Stands

2019-02-14T16:27:10-06:00February 15th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

In another lifetime, I once sat down to the most important job interview of my life. At a Cracker Barrel restaurant in Topeka, Kansas, the most interesting man I have ever had the pleasure to meet sat across the table [...]

What Matters Most

2019-02-07T13:33:48-06:00February 8th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Depending on when you take a moment to read this column, the majority of those in agriculture are either eagerly anticipating USDA’s coming data dump late Friday morning (11 a.m. CST) or enjoying a satisfied drink afterward. As for me, [...]

Frozen in February

2019-01-31T16:36:22-06:00February 1st, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

If you’re a hockey fan think of the first of February as the start of the third period. The clock finally starts to wind down on the game – in this case the game being winter. We can see the [...]

“Please Allow Me to Introduce Myself”

2019-01-29T07:00:59-06:00January 29th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The last few weeks have highlighted just how divided this country really is. There are two distinct camps holding forth in Washington, D.C., refusing to bend during the recent historic U.S. government shutdown. Among the casualties of this bitter feud [...]

Still Standing Still

2019-01-24T19:22:16-06:00January 25th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

It’s winter time here in the United States. Snow, wind and cold are almost everywhere one looks across the Midwest and through the Plains. It can be dreary. It can be depressing. It can be winter.  Often, people cope with [...]

If I Were King

2019-01-20T12:48:55-06:00January 18th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Okay folks, I’m going to tackle this subject one last time. Though my opinion was left out of a recent piece by an ag media outlet, the hue and cry has been for me to address the issue of USDA [...]

If a Tree Falls in a National Forest…

2019-01-20T12:46:17-06:00January 11th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This past Friday was notable for a number of reasons, one of them being the postponement of USDA’s mammoth annual January report. This information includes the government’s “final” (until changed again) production numbers for the previous year, a winter wheat [...]

Learning to Fly

2019-01-20T12:43:21-06:00January 4th, 2019|Commentary, Weekly Column|

David Gilmour - yes, of Pink Floyd fame -- wrote the 1987 song "Learning to Fly" for the band's album "A Momentary Lapse of Reason." This was the band's first album in the post-Roger Waters era, with the song expressing [...]

New Year, Old Rules

2019-01-20T12:38:16-06:00December 28th, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Depending on when you read this, 2018 is either almost behind us or already a thing of the past. For many in agriculture 2018 was a year not soon to be forgotten, with crazy weather only one of the hallmarks [...]

A King at Christmas

2019-01-20T12:35:15-06:00December 21st, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I must have been subjected to too many holiday Hallmark movies over the last 50 days, because the title of this piece reeks of schmaltz. Also note that I didn’t say “The King” because that would be a different subject [...]

Livin’ on the Edge

2019-01-20T12:32:56-06:00December 14th, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

I had to wait until Friday’s close in the grain markets to write this column -- and not for the usual reason of my natural procrastination. No, there was a real reason this time. I needed to see where soybean [...]

Lessons from Chosin

2019-09-20T06:50:25-05:00December 7th, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

A week ago many in the United States were cheering the tweeted trade war “victory” following a dinner meeting in Argentina between U.S. leaders and their counterparts from China. However, as the days unfolded there was a growing sense of [...]

Soya Wanna Grow Beans

2019-01-28T08:36:11-06:00November 30th, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Last weekend in Nashville I started my market presentation off by talking about soybeans. Of course I had to make an editorial comment about how over the last 15 years probably 99% of my discussions started with corn. But soybeans [...]

The Speedo Principle

2019-01-28T08:40:09-06:00November 23rd, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Last time we talked it was about a recent situation with a trading firm focused on selling options. We discussed my three rules for working with markets and evaluating what type of strategy might work best for a particular type [...]

Beware of the Naked Man

2019-01-28T08:42:38-06:00November 19th, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

As some of you may have noticed, I didn’t post a column last Friday. I was angry following some discussion on Twitter last week, with the planned subject reflecting that mood. But no longer having a deadline (Yes, I know [...]

Soybeans Steal the Spotlight

2019-01-28T08:48:11-06:00November 2nd, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

This was one of those weeks when I knew what I was going to write about early on. Shortly after Brazil’s presidential election last Sunday, I was going to put together a piece (“The Bols from Brazil”) talking about the [...]

The Sound of Silence of the Lambs

2019-01-28T08:53:58-06:00October 26th, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Hello darkness my old friend.  “It was a dark and stormy night. Suddenly a shot rang out! A door slammed. A maid screamed. Suddenly a pirate ship appeared on the horizon! While millions of people were starving, the king lived [...]

The Long and Short of Soybeans

2019-01-28T08:56:28-06:00October 19th, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

It has been a tumultuous week in soybeans, one that saw the November futures contract rally 24 cents Monday only to fall 22 cents Thursday. As the dust settled on Thursday’s business, many were left repeating Marvin Gaye’s famous question, [...]

Fundamentally Technical

2019-01-28T08:58:31-06:00October 12th, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

The nice thing about my current situation is I don’t have to pay attention to all the hype and hubbub surrounding USDA reports. Gone are the days when I would write a report preview, initial report comments, present a webinar, [...]

The Wisdom of Pogo

2019-01-28T09:01:20-06:00October 11th, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

Late last week I had another interesting conversation pop up on my Twitter (social media site) timeline. As these things so often do, this conversation came about from a less meaningful, even somewhat silly, dialogue over the 2019 acreage debate. [...]

Carry on My Wayward Son

2019-01-28T09:03:40-06:00October 5th, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

It's entirely possible that at some point over the previous 14 3/4 years I wrote a column with this same title. I don't have access to the approximately 800 columns I wrote for my previous employer and its in-house magazine, [...]

The Sign of the Four

2019-01-28T09:05:44-06:00September 28th, 2018|Commentary, Weekly Column|

We’ve all seen it. Both football teams, sweat and blood dripping from them, holding up four fingers as television cuts away to its next round of commercials at the end of the third quarter. Players from both teams signaling that [...]

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