I had a request come in for a look at the June-August live cattle futures spread. While my first inclination was to post it as Sunday's Chart of the Da, after updating my study comparing it against its history I [...]

Now that we've clearly crossed the threshold into meteorological spring, analysts immediately like to start talking analogous year's for new-crop contracts. Those of you who have been with me for any time at all know I don't believe in analogous [...]

We've reached The End of the 6-month planning period when theoretically US producers decide what to plant this coming spring. The annual debate between corn and soybeans will now heat up even more given the average difference in weekly closing [...]

I had a request come in for this October Feeder Cattle seasonal study with the question, "What do they normally do after mid-February?" As you can see from the attached chart, the answer is exactly clear, from a seasonal point [...]

Having reached the midpoint of February there is only two weeks remaining in the six-month Planning Season when US producers theoretically finalize there plan for planted acres this coming spring. Friday's close put the November soybean/December corn futures spread at [...]

With the first week of February now behind us we can close the book on Groundhog Week and turn our attention to the last three weeks of Planning Season, the six-month period when US producers theoretically finalize their plan or [...]

I was visiting with a good friend about the lean hog market Wednesday afternoon, and he asked a number of good questions. The one that stood out to me the most was this: At what point do we switch from [...]

As I talked about in Monday afternoon's Chart of the Day "Breakdown", the daily chart for the new-crop July 2021 Kansas City (HRW) wheat futures contract is showing a minor (short-term) 3-wave downtrend. However, a look at the weekly close-only [...]

As January came to a close the November 2021 soybean futures contract was 2.57 times the price of December 2021 corn futures (green circle marker). This was still near the previous 10-year high of 2.63 from 2017 while continuing to [...]

I had a question come in this morning asking if its was time to lock in fuel needs for 2021. Quite honestly, following the tumultuous path taken during 2020 I've been a bit more cautious looking for the opportunity to [...]

I was watching Mad Money on CNBC Tuesday evening and host Jim Cramer started talking about technical analyst Larry Williams' work. One of the charts he pulled up was Amazon's weekly, and he compared the trend of the stock to [...]

We are now just over two-thirds through the sprig 2021 Planning Season, not to be confused with the actual "Planting Season" that will be cranking up in less than 90 days. As I've talked about before, Planning season is the [...]

I had a request come in for an updated look at the November soybean/December corn futures spread as we approach the end of the December, two-thirds through next spring's Planning season from September through February. Early Tuesday morning's prices puts [...]

The Feb live cattle contract posted an impressive session, gaining as much as $1.325 on strong commercial buying before easing back a bit into the close. Still, when the dust had settled, the February-April futures spread was sitting at (-$3.75), [...]

I had a great question come in Wednesday morning, asking me about the difference in reading futures spreads of grain and livestock. It is a bit complicated, and a subject I will devote a good deal of time to in [...]

Continuing the Two Roads Diverged saga of December 2021 corn, I'm reminded of a short story our son told us about hiking in Colorado. He and his friends were making their way up Mt. Cutler, and as they neared the [...]

New-crop July Kansas City (HRW) wheat has posted some big swings over the last number of weeks, all while staying in a "normal" seasonal sideways pattern. I know, at first glance the trend of the 2021 contract (green line) seems [...]

Recall from last week in this space, I talked about how the Dec 2021 corn contract had stepped to the trailhead of its 12-month seasonal journey. Ahead of it lay two roads from which to choose: It could following the [...]

The November 2021 soybean futures contract is priced at 2.55 times the December 2021 corn futures contracts as of Tuesday's close (green circle marker). This continues to run just below the previous 10-year high (red line) for this week of [...]

This being the first weekly close in December (2020), the December 2021 corn contract stands at the trailhead of its 12-month seasonal path. As you can see from this chart, there is an immediate divergence between the 5-year (red line) [...]

I had a number of conversation concerning cattle Tuesday, so I'll be focusing on both live and feeder cattle markets over the coming days. I'll get the ball rolling with a look at seasonality for the February live cattle contract. [...]

The strong rally in the energy complex in general, the distillates (heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) market in particular, has me concerned about getting seasonal purchases in place for 2021. As this study shows, the market's tendency is [...]

... not when you have too. That saying, along with another one I read on Twitter this week ("Bacon = Meat Candy") could certainly keep the Feb-April lean hog spread on its seasonal path as we finish off fall and [...]

Continuing the discussion of the bearish February live cattle contract, I had a question come in asking how far out of line the Feb-June spread was with its seasonal patterns. Here we see the 2021 edition (green line) continues to [...]

It's often a tossup as to where I put an updated basis study, as it could go in either Basis Analysis of Seasonal Analysis. As you can see, I've put this updated Corn Basis study in Seasonal Analysis because that's [...]

Let's take a look at what the 2021 November Soybean/December Corn spread (green line) is showing us as we make our way through Planting Decision season that is generally viewed as running from September through February. Monday's close had November [...]

I had a question come in Tuesday afternoon, asking if there was a month coming up when noncommercial traders tend to put pressure on soybeans (or corn) to close out the year? The interest is ramped up in 2020 given [...]

I've had a number of conversations this week regarding the December 2021 corn contract, with a lot of interest in getting some of next year's production on the books. A conversation Wednesday afternoon turned toward seasonality, so I reconfigured my [...]

I had a question come in Monday afternoon regarding the Feb-June live cattle spread*. My friend has been watching this spread, and noticing the weakness of the Feb 2021 contract in relation to June 2021 wondered if the spread looked [...]

As I mentioned in Tuesday's Morning Commentary, national average corn basis continues to firm as harvest progresses. Monday afternoon saw the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) calculated at 26.7 cents under December futures (right hand green [...]

I had a tough question come in Thursday afternoon, one I couldn't answer directly. My friend asked, "Darin, the years December corn makes its high in January only to have the contract print new highs during or after harvest, what [...]

As you recall from other pieces of my analysis and commentary, I see US stock markets have peaked meaning we should be in the phase of the overall market cycle when stocks are moving lower and the US dollar is [...]

I was visiting back and forth with a good friend about the soybean market over the course of Wednesday's session, watching in awe and with some trepidation as the November contract continued to extend its rally through the close. As [...]

Let me begin by saying I stand by the conclusion of my latest Weekly Column, "The Gamblers' Secret", meaning U.S. producers could give more thought than usual to holding cash soybeans at harvest and selling some cash corn. One thing [...]

As I mentioned in my latest Weekly Column, "The Gamblers' Secret", the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price, intrinsic value of the soybean market) is ready to embark on its seasonal uptrend like a mountain [...]

I was visiting with a gentleman this afternoon, a farmer in Iowa, and the subject of Dec corn's seasonality came up. I looked back in the archives and saw the last time I had updated this chart was August 1, [...]

After I posted Thursday morning's Chart of the Day (October Lean Hogs: Short-Term Topping Pattern), a friend asked me if the short-term technical picture fit with Oct lean hog's seasonal tendencies. The idea is if the contract tends to see [...]

After I posted a look at the October live cattle seasonal study Monday, a good friend from back home in Kansas sent me a message asking about October feeder cattle. As this chart shows, the 2020 October feeder contract (green [...]

I know we've all heard the urban legend about cow tipping as a rural pastime, a myth that has largely been busted by those in the know. At least physically, because a look at this seasonal study for October live [...]

As I mentioned in Weekly Analysis: Energies the 2020 RBOB gasoline market (green line) looks to be back in step with its seasonal studies. The 5-year index (red line) shows an average decrease of 18% from the third weekly close [...]

As I mentioned in my latest Weekly Column, "Dog Days of Summer", the month of August tends to not be kind to those bullish Dec corn. While the last 5 and 10 years have seen nearly an even mix of [...]

A good friend just contacted me, asking about the seasonal pattern for October live cattle. He told me Moore Research Center had been talking about a key turning point in the contract, and I have a great deal of respect [...]

I mentioned Sunday evening on Twitter I would be posting the seasonal chart for July corn first thing this morning, and that the patterns themselves would either be sobering or enough to start folks drinking early. I'll let you decide. [...]

The new-crop Dec cotton futures contract is coming up on an interesting point of its 12-month cycle, with the 5-year seasonal index (red line) indicating a summer peak while the 10-year index (blue line) shows a seasonal bottom. Given the [...]

The October live cattle contract is in an interesting position as we make our way through the early part of this week. The contract's seasonal secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend tends to accelerate into its final leg, with the 5-year index (red [...]

As I discussed in Weekly Analysis: Energies over the weekend, the RBOB gasoline spot-month contract looks to have posted a secondary (intermediate-term) top on its weekly chart, establishing both a bearish 2-week reversal and spike reversal with last week's activity. [...]

I had a question come in this morning doubt the August-December lean hog futures spread. This followed a project I put together for someone Thursday evening, looking at futures spreads for the more standard October-December, December-February, and February-April lean hog [...]

As I mentioned in Weekly Analysis over the weekend and Morning Commentary early Monday, the cash hard red winter (HRW) wheat market needs to be watched closely over the coming weeks. A look at the 5-year seasonal index for the [...]

As I mentioned in Monday's Chart of the Day, "Nov Soybeans: Rolling Over", the 5-year seasonal index (red line) for November soybeans indicates the first weekly close in June is the seasonal  high. Counting weeks, the 5-year seasonal peak tends [...]

As I mentioned in Weekly Analysis, the Dec corn futures contract tends to post a high weekly close in late May through early June. Going by week count for a 12-month cycle, both the 5-year seasonal index (red line) and [...]

As I discussed in Afternoon Commentary, a number of factors came together to spark a rally in new-crop December corn Thursday. The contract closed at $3.40 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents for the day, after trading as high as $3.42 [...]

A look at this seasonal study for new-crop November soybeans indicates if the contract is going to have a seasonal rally, now is its time to shine. The 5-year index (red line) shows Nov soybeans tends to rally 3% from [...]

There's no getting around how bleak things have been for a number of markets, including corn. But as I was staring in on my Weekly Analysis this weekend, and given the roll from May contracts to July this past week, [...]

I had a question come in regarding the seasonality of feeder cattle, in relation to finding the "best month to calve cows." While I know there is a lot involved with this. question, I've updated this seasonal chart for the [...]

For those watching the June-August live cattle spread, it is akin to watching bull riders at a rodeo with bursts of activity as the animal jumps, bucks, and kicks. For those participating in this spread through futures spreads, they are [...]

As I just discussed in Wednesday's Chart of the Day, June Lean Hogs: Lean Into the Wind, the commercial side of the lean hog market continues to grow more bearish. Note the 2020 spread (green line) has fallen to (-$8.20), [...]

As I mentioned in Wednesday afternoon's Chart of the Day, the recent rally posted by new-crop July Kansas City wheat should be considered a strong contra-seasonal move. Usually when a contract or market posts a contra-seasonal move, particularly to the [...]

The collapse in the new-crop December cotton contract has been dramatic, to say the least. The usual seasonal pattern (10-year, blue line) is for the contract to post a low weekly close the second week of December before rallying 8% [...]

A quick look through my seasonal studies for the energy complex shows a common theme: Crude oil (both WTI and Brent), distillates, and RBOB gasoline are collapsing, extending contra-seasonal downtrends to the lower reaches of each market's historic price distribution [...]

I had a question come in Sunday evening regarding live cattle seasonality. After I mentioned Monday could be an ugly day for cattle markets, my friend pointed out live cattle was already in a strong contra-seasonal downturn. I agreed. As [...]

I had a question come in Wednesday evening about lean hog seasonality. My friend wanted to know if there were some time targets for Q4 hogs. After thumbing through my studies for the various contracts, the two that jumped out [...]

For those of you watching the December 2020 corn contract, and I know that's nearly everyone, you are probably feeling a sense of deja vu regarding this year's path. And rightfully so, as this chart shows the 2020 contract (green [...]

In the Q&A part of my market talk earlier this week at the Spencer (Iowa) Chamber of Commerce "Northwest Iowa Ag Outlook Conference", a gentleman asked when would be a good time to fill tanks for 2020? I shared with [...]

The 2020 November soybean contract (green line) continues to track, for the most part, the path carved out by the 2019 issue (gold line). Note last year at this time November soybeans were in the middle of a sell-off that [...]

A good friend was telling me about a strategy he was looking at, a strategy that included selling August feeder cattle put options. This sounded interesting to me, and I was reminded of the filters that come into play when [...]

The 2020 June live cattle contract (green line) is nearing the point in winter when it tends to set sail on its next seasonal uptrend. According to its 5-year study (red line) the contract tends to rally 2% through late [...]

As I mentioned in Wednesday's Chart of the Day " Diesel Fueled Power" the distillates market looks poised to make a later than normal move into its seasonal uptrend. Normally this trend runs from a low weekly close the 2nd [...]

As we all know by now, last week (and last month, see Monday morning's Chart of the Day "So Long, Farewell...") was ugly for the soybean market, and the new-crop November 2020 contract was no exception. Not only did it [...]

The new-crop 2020 October sugar contract (green line) has been on a tear over the course of the fall and winter, posting a strong contra-seasonal rally that has resulted in a test of technical resistance at 14.69 (for further discussion [...]

As I mentioned in Weekly Analysis of Energies this past weekend, while the secondary (intermediate term) trend for distillates (heating oil, jet fuel, diesel fuel, etc.) still looks to be down it's minor (short term) trend looks to have turned [...]

I had a conversation with a friend earlier today about the strength of the new-crop July Kansas City (HRW) wheat contract. A look at its seasonal study shows the 2020 contract (green line) has posted a rocket-like rally since its [...]

As those watching the lean hog market know, the last nine months (or more) have been explosive. Taking a look at the April 2020 contract (green line) in relation to its seasonal patterns, we see the contract posted an earlier [...]

Like a breath of fresh air Friday afternoon, a good friend touched base with me to talk about turning the attention to new-crop corn opportunities for the 2020, 2021, and 2022 contracts (for additional analysis, see Saturday morning's post in [...]

As we may our way through winter here in the Northern Hemisphere, it's time to check in on the new-crop December 2020 cotton contract. As the end of December (the month, not the contract) approaches we see the Dec 20 [...]

As I mentioned in Afternoon Commentary, I had a call this afternoon discussing new-crop Kansas City HRW wheat. The bottom line is this could be a critical weekend, with rain forecast across parts of the U.S. Southern Plains. if the [...]

As I discussed in today's (Sunday, December 15) Weekly Analysis, the March corn futures contract is a a key point where it can either follow its 5-year seasonal study (red line) and grind sideways to lower through the end of [...]

The spotlight was on the energy complex Wednesday as WTI crude oil jumped more than $2 while the backwardation (inverse) in its forward curve strengthened. All signs point to increasingly bullish fundamentals, despite a threat from Saudi Arabia to boost [...]

Closing out today's look at the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national cash average), I'm taking a look at how the 2019-2020 market (green line) is moving in relation to its 5-year (red line) and 10-year (blue line) [...]

I had a question come in regarding corn's seasonality post-expiration of December options this coming Friday. The idea was if short-term serial call options (e.g. January options based off the March futures contract) would have a chance at a payoff. [...]

I had a question come in last night, talking about the seasonality of Feb lean hogs. As always, I appreciate all of you taking the time to send in questions or suggesting charts/studies to be posted. Taking a look at [...]

As I talked about last week, the 5-year (red line) and 10-year (blue line) seasonal indexes show Dec live cattle tends to post a high with this week's (first week of November) close. The 2019 contract (green line) is tracking [...]

As I discussed in the Price Distribution update Wednesday morning, I had a conversation with a customer last night regarding accumulator contracts for 2020 corn. There are a number of moving parts in an accumulator, or any cash contract, and [...]

As I talked about this past weekend in Weekly Analysis: Wheat, a look at the seasonal chart for July Kansas City (HRW) is enough to give one a sinking feeling as planting season nears its end. As discussed in the [...]

Folks on either side of the Live Cattle aisle, bullish or bearish, can look at this seasonal study chart for the Dec contract and make an argument for their case heading into Friday and the October Cattle on Feed report. [...]

Those of you following along with Weekly Analysis recall that natural gas is one of the few markets in the energy complex showing a clear secondary (intermediate term) uptrend or downtrend (crude oil and distillates are moving sideways, with RBOB [...]

Another study I've used over the decades to help stay in step with market action is seasonality. My way of looking at seasonality is to track this year's market or contract, in this case March 2020 corn (green line) against [...]

As I mentioned in Wednesday's Morning Commentary, I will be talking about the soybean or corn question in greater detail in my next Weekly Column. Part of this discussion, both old-crop and new-crop, will be about seasonality. And no aspect [...]

A friend asked if I could take a look at the seasonal chart for November feeder cattle. As you can see, the 2019 Nov feeder contract (green line) has spent much of the last 6 months in what could be [...]

The cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average) for the 2019-2020 marketing year (green line) looks to be comfortably in its seasonal uptrend that tends to begin in late September (5-year index, red line) or early October (10-year [...]

A look at this seasonal index chart for the July Kansas City wheat contract is likely enough to make wheat growers across the U.S. Plains squeamish as they either head out to plant next year's crop or sit waiting for [...]

The distillates market (heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) looks to be moving into its normal fall sell-off, with the spot-month contract in position to post a new 4-week low weekly close. The spot-month contract is priced Thursday morning [...]

As this seasonal study for the cmdty National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSWI, weighted national average) shows, the early 2019-2020 marketing year (green line, based on a September to August 12 month period) has shown an incredible rally. Last Friday's [...]

A friend sent me a question this morning, asking my thoughts on the prospects of a rally in the July 2020 Kansas City wheat contract. I will take a look at the technical outlook for the contract for Tuesday's Chart [...]

In my latest Weekly Analysis of Energies I mentioned how spot-month crude oil futures (green line) looked to be in a seasonal secondary sideways (that's fun to say) trend between $58.82 and $50.52. This fits with what we see for [...]

The 2019-2020 (green line) cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) looks to have established an earlier than normal seasonal low. Note that normal lows tend to occur the last weekly close of September (5-year study, [...]

I mentioned in Weekly Analysis this past weekend that the cmdty National SRW Wheat Price Index (SRPI) looked to have establish a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly chart, given its spike reversal to a higher weekly close an bullish [...]

This seasonal chart for the December cotton contract shows some interesting possibilities just ahead, based on the idea the 2019 issue has made moves ahead of the normal seasonal turning points. Note that 2019's (green line) main seasonal peak occurred [...]

I had an interesting conversation with a friend of mine Tuesday evening regarding the spring wheat market. This stemmed from recent comments from another friend about a letter he had received from his local USDA/FSA office, informing spring wheat producers [...]

I had a conversation with  HRW wheat producer from Kansas Thursday. His plan earlier this summer was to plant more wheat, giving up some of his corn ground, with the time to make a final decision fast approaching. However, the [...]

As this seasonal study for RBOB gasoline shows, the 2019 market (green line) continues to track its 5-year pattern (red line) closely. It's interesting to note the 5-year study shows a tendency toward establishing a seasonal head-and-shoulder pattern with the [...]

As discussed in Weekly Analysis, the 2020 July Kansas City (HRW) contract (green line) looks to be following its 5-year seasonal pattern (red line) closely. Note that seasonally July KC tends to post its high weekly close the first week [...]

Welcome to the end of July, occurring this year on a Wednesday, also famously known from an insurance commercial as Hump Day. In honor of that, let's take a look at the "hump" forming on the weekly close only chart [...]

The title of this post says it all: One look at the weekly close only chart for Dec corn 2019 (green line) compared to its 5-year (red line) and 10-year (blue line) seasonal studies and it's hard to make a [...]

A look at the 5-year seasonal pattern for the cmdty National HRW Wheat Price Index (red line) paints a bleak picture for what the future might hold for the 2019-2020 cash market (green line). Note that the tendency is for [...]

Tracking the national soybean basis market over the course of the 2018-2019 marketing year has been interesting. As we enter the final stages of the marketing year - I was just reminded on Twitter that it is already July 23 [...]

As I mentioned in Weekly Analysis for Oilseeds, the seasonal chart for 2019 November soybeans (green line) is showing an extended contra-seasonal uptrend following last Friday's bullish close. Note that the settlement of $9.31 1/2 was above the previous high [...]

A subscriber called Monday to talk about distillates (heating oil, jet fuel, diesel fuel, etc.). He has been tracking my Weekly Analysis, and wanted to know what should be done if one wasn't able to cover all 2019 needs "at [...]

We all know this isn't dear old Granddad's new-crop corn market, not since the market turned on a dime in early May and rallied about 10 dimes. Yes, as you can see on Dec corn's seasonal chart, the 2019 contract's [...]

The seasonal chart for the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) shows soybean basis continues to follow a familiar seasonal path. While the 2018-2019 market (green line), calculated at roughly 73 3/4 cents under the August, continues [...]

The seasonal patterns for distillates (heating oil, jet fuel, diesel fuel, etc.) is similar to those discussed in Monday's analysis of crude oil. If you take a look at the 10-year seasonal pattern (blue line) you see an initial late [...]

A quick show of hands this morning: How many of you remember when the week of the 4th of July holiday here in the United States was a seasonal turning point for crude oil in particular, the energy complex in [...]

I just received word from back home (south-central Kansas) that HRW wheat harvest finally started rolling. It has seemed like an eternity, though in reality the non-strop wet weather might have harvest in the area pushed back 10 days or [...]

The cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average basis index) closed this past week at roughly 20 3/4 cents under the July contract, almost 4 cents stronger than the previous week and challenging its high weekly close of [...]

Hard red winter wheat harvest, or the lack thereof, across the Southern Plains is making for some interesting times for producers across the area. Earlier this week, I had the chance to visit with my brother who farms in Kansas, [...]

It seems unusual to say, but national average soybean basis has been relatively calm compared to the the volatile markets surrounding it. The seasonal chart for the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, national average weighted basis index) shows the [...]

An initial glance at the seasonal chart for the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average basis) doesn't show anything extraordinary. This past week saw the NCBI gain 3 cents, finishing Friday near 24 1/2 cents under the [...]

A look at the attached seasonal chart for national average corn basis (cmdty National Corn Basis Index, NCBI) shows the relationship between the cash market and old-crop futures continues to weaken as we start the fourth quarter of the 2018-2019 [...]

I mentioned the seasonal strength of the hard red winter (HRW) wheat basis market in Morning Commentary Monday. As we roll into the first week of the 2019-2020 marketing year, we see that national average basis (cmdty National HRW Wheat [...]

As I was putting together Weekly Analysis for the cotton markets, the pattern in new-crop December grabbed my attention. In the analysis I talk about how the contract is showing signs of a coming secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, but in the [...]

The distillates (heating oil, jet fuel, diesel fuel, etc.) futures market (green line) is taking a tumble this week, in line with its 5-year seasonal pattern (red line). Note that historically, the 2nd week of May tends to see the [...]

National average basis for hard red winter (HRW) wheat (cmdty National HRW Wheat Price Index minus Kansas City futures) continues to run stronger than the previous 4 years, calculated last Friday at 21 3/4 cents under the July contract (green [...]

National average soybean basis (cmdty National Soybean Price Index minus nearby futures) for 2018-2019 (green line) continues to track the pattern of its weakest marketing years (red line), calculated last Friday at 83 cents under. This was about 1 1/4 [...]

Last week saw national average corn basis (cmdty National Corn Price Index minus nearby futures) close at 26 3/4 cents under, down about 1 1/2 cents for the week. From a technical point of view, this was a bearish signal [...]

The calendar has turned to May, and short hedges in old-crop corn have been rolled from the May contract to July. Those who have gone all-in on the idea basis, reflected here by national average basis (cmdty National Corn Price [...]

As I was writing up this afternoon's Chart of the Day on November soybeans, I was also wondering what a potential move to a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend would look like seasonally. As you can see, the 2019 contract (green line) [...]

I saw some chatter on Twitter this afternoon that ruffled my feathers a bit. The conversation hinted at how easy it is to forward market wheat based on nothing more than seasonal tendencies. Theoretically, yes, a look at the attached [...]

I saw some conversation regarding the seasonal pattern for August feeder cattle Thursday, prompting me to put together my own chart. What initially jumps out at me is the wild ride the 2019 contract (green line) has been on, not [...]

Yes, watching national average soybean basis appreciate is akin to watching paint dry, but a look at its seasonal patterns shows the market is approaching a critical point. Last week's settlement showed national average basis (cmdty National Soybean Price Index [...]

In keeping with the theme of this Wheat Wednesday, I'm looking again at my seasonal study for soft white winter wheat. This chart shows me a number of things, most notably the secondary (intermediate-term) trend for the 2018-2019 marketing year [...]

As I mentioned in Tuesday's Morning Commentary, new-crop December cotton is approaching an important window of time according to its seasonal studies. Taking a look at the attached chart you'll see the 2019 contract (green line) looks to be in [...]

For Monday's (April 22) Seasonal Chart, I had a request from a subscriber to post an updated look at December corn. I had to chuckle, at least a bit, because it's a harsh way to start the week, but he [...]

I mentioned the seasonal patterns for the distillates market in Weekly Analysis Friday morning, so wanted to show you what the chart looks like. The first thing that jumps out at you is how strong the rally has been in [...]

No, the rain did not literally start to fall over the U.S. Southern Plains hard red winter (HRW) wheat growing area, at least not as far as I know. What I'm talking about is the figurative rain I discussed in [...]

Things are about to get even more interesting in June live cattle. A look at the contract's seasonal patterns shows both the 5-year (red line) and 10-year (blue line) post rallies of 3% (5-year) and 2% (10-year) over the coming [...]

National average corn basis (cmdty National Corn Price Index minus nearby futures) continues to impress as the 2018-2019 marketing year moves along. As this weekly close-only chart shows, last Friday saw national average basis calculated at about 24 1/2 cents [...]

New-crop December cotton seems to have finally caught a bullish seasonal updraft, helping it to quickly move into a more normal pattern. Since its low weekly close of 72.80 the second week of February, the contract has gained 6.4% through [...]

When I look at the seasonal study for the July Kansas City wheat contract, I can't help but think of the scene from the classic movie "Young Frankenstein". Here we find the young Dr. Frahnkensteen (his pronunciation) and I-gor (also [...]

National average soybean basis (cmdty National Soybean Price Index minus Chicago futures) for the 2018-2019 marketing year (green line) was calculated last Friday (April 5) at 84 1/4 cents under the May futures contract. This continues the pattern of this [...]

The national average corn basis (cmdty National Corn Price Index minus the May futures contract) was calculated at about 26 cents under last Friday (April 5). This was roughly 1 cent stronger than the previous week. Note that the 2018-2019 [...]

National average soybean basis continues to firm, in line with its 4-year seasonal patterns. I calculated national average basis by taking the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) minus the nearby futures market (in this [...]

Those of you who watched Iowa Public Television's panel discussion following last Friday's USDA reports will recall that I got a bit fired up a couple times. If you haven't seen it, be sure to check out both the program [...]

I've probably used this line from the movie "Dumb and Dumber" a dozen times at least for different blog posts, but it seems to fit the situation for Nov soybeans Thursday morning. As I said in the analysis for the [...]

The new-crop November rice contract has posted an impressive rally of late. Looking at weekly closes only, the 2019 contract (green line) has gained 9% since its low the second week of February at $10.29 through last Friday's close of [...]

I mentioned crude oil's seasonal patterns in Tuesday's Morning Commentary. As you can see on this chart based on weekly closes, crude oil's cash index tends to rally from a mid-January low through late April (10-year study, blue line) or [...]

It has taken awhile, but new-crop December cotton finally looks to be getting into a normal bullish seasonal spirit. Last Friday's close of 75.30 was up 0.72 for the week, and extended an uptrend that began with the weekly close [...]

A comment on Twitter earlier Friday morning gave me the opportunity to give my thoughts using a combination of seasonality and price distribution. For the latter, see "Dec Corn Price Distribution: The $4.25 Question" in Analysis/Charts. This is my seasonal [...]

Earlier this week, a conversation on wheat's seasonality appeared on Twitter. Having watched the patterns over the years, I commented how there just isn't much to the seasonality card in the wheat market any more. As you can see on [...]

When I first looked at my seasonal study for June lean hogs, I didn't see anything extraordinary about the current rally. At first glance I saw the 5-year seasonal pattern (red line) was for a rally starting with the close [...]

On March 6 I posted posted a thought on the social media site "Twitter" that asked: Given the deep snow across parts of the U.S. Midwest and Northern Plains, are we looking at increased river flooding when/if warmer weather arrives? [...]

Twitter has been my friend Tuesday, giving me some analytical ideas as the day progresses. Where some chatter led to my recent post on May orange juice (see Analysis/Charts), I also had a friend talking about the seasonality of new-crop [...]