I saw a piece on MarketWatch asking the question if RBOB gasoline had posted an early seasonal high for 2023. Let's take a look: The 5-year seasonal index (red line) shows the spot-month contract tends to gain 30% from the [...]

I had a question come in Monday evening asking about remaining old-crop corn. First, as always I want to thank everyone for taking the time to send in questions. Second, if this discussion raises more questions, don't hesitate to ask. [...]

We can close the book on another not-so-exciting race for acres as Dec23 corn held its lead over Nov23 soybeans though the tape. Sure, Nov soybeans made a late dash, similar to the kid who sprinted the last 100 yards [...]

As I mentioned in Weekly Analysis Monday, The April live cattle futures contract has reached a seasonal crossroads. Based on the contract's 5-year index (red line), the third weekly close of February tends to be the high with the contract [...]

A friend requested I take a look at the seasonal pattern for the June-August live cattle futures spread. According to another well-known seasonal analysis group (and one I learned about seasonal analysis to begin with decades ago), the spread is [...]

A good friend in the cattle industry sent me a message this morning that read, "It's damn tough to do a 5-year seasonal in fats due to the pandemic year(s), but fats have a strong seasonal tendency to sell off [...]

As I was updating my seasonal charts Saturday morning, I was struck by how closely the Barchart National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) was tracking to its seasonal patterns (based on weekly closes only). In regard [...]

I just had the question come in, "What should we do if still holding cash corn from last year in a bin?" Let's dissect the cash market: Corn is fundamentally bullish. National average basis continues to run nearly 20 cents [...]

The weekly close-only chart for the 2023 November soybean/December corn spread (solid green line) continues to favor more US corn acres planted this spring, theoretically. Friday's closes put the spread at 2.33, with the previous 10-year average weekly close (solid [...]

The 2023 spot-month WTI crude oil futures market (green line) is up and running early, already far outdistancing seasonal gains shown by its 10-year (blue line) and 5-year (red line) indexes. After posting a weekly close of $73.77 last week, [...]

The distillates market looks to be in its seasonal uptrend, with both the 5-year index (red line) and 10-year index (blue line) showing the market has plenty of room to run higher. The January contract went off the board Friday [...]

In a case of closing the barn door after the horse has already run off, I present to you an updated look at my seasonal studies for distillates (heating oil, jet fuel, diesel fuel, etc.). Back on November 29 in [...]

The 2023 edition of the November soybean/December corn futures spread (green line) has gotten more interesting over the last couple months. A few things to keep in mind about this spread: US producers like to plant corn. While I don't [...]

There has been a great deal of interest in the WTI crude oil market of late, and rightfully so. This week has seen a steady stream of headlines and news stories related to not only WTI, but the energy sector [...]

The distillates market (heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) is on the hot seat these days as it sits between seasonal low weekly closes the last week of November (5-year index, red line) and the third week of December [...]

I've had a couple conversations regarding March corn already today, so I know there is some interest in what the contract could do. First, a good friend updated me that a seasonal research company has this week as a buying [...]

A question came in late last week if it was time to lock in 2023 diesel fuel needs. I answered my friend much like I'm about to explain to you: I don't know. I can hear the head shakes from [...]

I had a request come in for a discussion of the seasonal chart for January feeder cattle. As always, thank you for taking the suggestions. This one is a bit of a puzzler, as at first glance I don't see [...]

As I mentioned in Friday's Afternoon Commentary, December corn closed this week at $6.8975. This was a new high for the seasonal rally that began in late July and as has been projected, could be the seasonal high weekly close [...]

A good friend just sent me a message reminding me it has been a while since I took a look at soybean meal. My friend is correct, and as a step toward correcting the situation as bean meal starts in [...]

As I mentioned on Twitter, MarketWatch posted a piece talking about how today (September 29) was an optimum day to buy soybeans based on seasonal analysis. I quickly updated my own seasonal study of the Barchart National Soybean Price Index [...]

There was a lot of chatter about RBOB gasoline futures free falling this past weekend, and a look at the market's seasonal weekly close-only chart shows just how dramatic the move has been. After posting a high weekly close of [...]

The path being laid out by the November 2022 soybean futures contract (green line) is not as clear as what I talked about with December corn Tuesday. The similarity between the two markets is long-term bullish fundamentals, with the Nov-July [...]

Dec22 corn closed last week at $6.6575, up 1.5 cents for the week and holding true to form with its seasonal uptrend based on weekly closes only. It's interesting to note last week's close was the normal seasonal low for [...]

The 2022 distillates (heating oil, jet fuel, diesel fuel, etc.) market (green line) looks like it has spiked into a seasonal uptrend a couple weeks ahead of normal. The 5-year index (red line) shows its last big seasonal upswing for [...]

This time around, when I mention Benjamin Franklin I'm not talking about the Fish Similarity I usually bring up (Like guests and fish, markets start to stink after three days/weeks/months moving against the trend). No, for this seasonal study I'm [...]

There is a lot to talk about Thursday afternoon, and most of it bearish. So before I get to all that, I want to revisit December corn's seasonal weekly close-only chart. First, let's discuss some of these lines: Purple boxes [...]

I want to revisit the crude oil market after I touched on it during Thursday's Morning Commentary. Besides the strength of the US dollar, another news item getting a lot of discussion early was US President Biden's trip to the [...]

Newsom's Market Rule #3 tells us, "Use filters to manage risk." These filters include implied volatility, price distribution, and seasonality. These filters are not meant to be used as the sole factor for establishing trades or positions, but in helping [...]

If you are thinking we've seen December corn make this kind of large-scale selloff before, you are correct. In fact, as a good friend reminded me, we only have to go back to last year to see how something similar [...]

A good friend called Thursday afternoon, wanting to talk about corn seasonal patterns ahead of Friday's round of USDA nonsense. For the record my friend is bullish corn, and as you know I'm bullish corn fundamentally, and my comment that [...]

As I mentioned in Friday's Morning Commentary, the Dec22 corn contract (green line) is looking at a bearish turn in its seasonal patterns. The 10-year seasonal index (blue line) shows a high weekly close the first week of June (next [...]

I mentioned in Thursday's Morning Commentary a piece from Markets Insider talking about potential demand destruction in gasoline due to high price. I added it could mean an earlier than normal seasonal top in the market, but after updating my [...]

I learned a long time ago that if one wanted to make a living writing commentary, analyzing, or talking about markets then they had to always be bullish. We see it every day with the talking heads pretending to be [...]

As I mentioned in Monday's Morning Commentary, the corn market will be busy this week. I listed much of what is going on in the Commentary, but also want to point out this Friday is the exportation date for May [...]

As I mentioned in Monday's Chart of the Day, seasonal indexes (based on weekly closes only) for the June lean hog contract show a tendency to trend down during April. The contract's 5-year seasonal study (red line) shows an average [...]

I've been asked with growing frequency about the US oil situation, not surprising given the recent run by the WTI market to $130, the highest price for the spot-month contract since July 2008. I know there is a faux[i]news organization [...]

Theoretical Position: I'm again putting the bottom line at the top. While neither I nor the DNAI in-house algorithm has a clear intermediate-term sell signal, it seems a bearish key reversal is inevitable on Dec corn's weekly chart. Given this, [...]

I've been hearing some chatter about new-crop December 2022 corn establishing a top this week. From a technical point of view, I have to agree. The contract is in position to complete a bearish key reversal on its weekly chart, [...]

Along with the short-term technical picture of the April live cattle, one that looks to be turning more bearish, we have a fundamental side that has been bearish since last June. Early Thursday morning finds the April-June futures spread calculated [...]

What a day this Groundhog Day turned out to be. Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow early, and based on a set of half-serious statistics (keeping in mind the old saying of "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics"), I posted [...]

Based on weekly closes back through the 2012 contract, the 10-year seasonal index (blue line) for November soybeans shows an 8% rally from the third week of November through the second week of June. If we use the 2022 contract's [...]

I've had a lot of questions come in concerning crude oil, mostly along the line of is it time to just close our eyes and buy it. This is one of those times we have to put our emotions aside [...]

The distillates market (heating oil, jet fuel, diesel fuel, etc.) has exploded out of the gate in 2022, posting an initial weekly close of $2.48 before jumping to last Friday's settlement of $2.63. This was a gain of 6% for [...]

As mentioned in Weekly Analysis Sunday and Monday morning's Quick Take (Monday Morning in the Barn), it was a bearish week for the April-June live cattle futures spread. Last Friday saw the spread close at $4.35, down $1.275 for the [...]

So you want to be bullish live cattle? I get it. As I've said in the past, the various aspects of the beef market are as reliable an economic indicator as anything else economist want to point to. And with [...]

As I mentioned in Monday's Morning Commentary, seasonally the crude oil market doesn't give us much time to get strapped in as it starts jumping right out of the chute when the calendar page is turned to a new year. [...]

I did not grow up in a feed yard, and was often pointed out in my early days appearing on the Market to Market television program I knew little about the cow-calf market. In fact, if it weren't for my [...]

One of the more interesting market threads I found over the 3-day holiday weekend was the talk high-priced soybeans was buying away possibly 3 million acres of corn in the US next spring. While this is a possibility due to: [...]

I reconfigured my natural gas seasonal study Monday morning to better show the relationship between the market and the change of meteorological seasons. The first thing that jumps out is both the 5-year index (red line) and 10-year index (blue [...]

I've been asked a number of times about what the ratio spread between the November 2022 futures contract and December 2022 issue is telling us. So far, the race towards buying acres has been interesting. Just to refresh everyone's memory: [...]

The US cattle industry has become like the Titanic. Just as the great ship was unsinkable back 1912. Of course we all know how that turned out, and if you don't there is a long, boring movie of the same [...]

I had a question come in asking if I could take another look at the feeder cattle market. First, as always, thanks to all for sending in questions and suggestions for things to talk about. Second, unfortunately, trying to find [...]

As I discussed in Tuesday's Chart of the Day ("Dec 2022 Corn: Deuces Wild"), the December 2022 corn contract looks to be moving into its seasonal secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. While we still have a long way to go until Friday's [...]

I've heard through the grapevine a leading research group in seasonal analysis is showing a post-Thanksgiving selloff in February live cattle. Historically, this move lasts from November 27 through December 7. This research group breaks it down by days, where [...]

A friend brought to my attention that a well-known seasonal analysis firm out west has today as the day July soybeans start a bullish move. I know the company my friend is referring to, and I respect them a great [...]

In the Quick Takes post “Monday Morning in the Barn” I mentioned how we were seeing some commercial selling in the lean hog market. As of this writing the December contract is still down $0.425 while February has climbed back [...]

Those of you who have been following me for a while know I often reference old songs in my analysis and commentary, and one of my favorites is Buffalo Springfield's "For What It's Worth". This song includes the famous line, [...]

Admittedly, this seasonal chart for the March corn futures contract is a bit of a mess. The 2022 contract (green line) has seen some wild swings so far, dating back through the first week of March 2021, though as we [...]

Those still holding cash soybeans are seeing the market start to climb as North America heads into the closing stages of the 2021 harvest. The cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) posted a low weekly [...]

The cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) exploded into its seasonal uptrend last week, taking out its previous high 2021-2022 (green line) weekly close of $5.18 as it was calculated at $5.49 last Friday afternoon. [...]

To paraphrase a line from the Pixar movie Ratatouilles, "Not everyone can become a great artist, but a great artist can come from anywhere." With that in mind I also want to borrow a quote from Lloyd Christmas of "Dumb [...]

"...But what it is ain't exactly clear..." This lyric from the classic Buffalo Springfield song "For What It's Worth" is a great description of the seasonal study for July Kansas City (HRW) wheat as we make our way through fall planting [...]

Through the first month of the new marketing year, the 2021-2022 cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price, green line) is following the seasonal path laid out by its 10-year index (blue line) more closely than [...]

As I look at the seasonal chart for November soybean futures, one word comes to mind: Time. And yes, me being me, the song running in my head as I write this piece is the Alan Parsons Project tune of [...]

That loud banging we hear ringing out across the US Plains and Midwest is the sound of bin doors slamming shut, the mostly newly harvested corn inside tucked away until later in the 2021-2022 marketing year. Why this feverish activity [...]

December 2021 corn futures (green line) closed Friday, October 1 at $5.4150, up 14.75 cents for the week easily clearing the previous 4-week high weekly close of $5.2725. This by itself is a bullish reversal on the contract's weekly close-only [...]

In Monday's Morning Commentary I mentioned December cotton posted a bullish outside range on its weekly chart, setting the stage for the spike rally to a new contract high to start the week. However, the seasonal chart for Dec cotton [...]

A look at December corn's seasonal studies shows the time has come for market bulls to start to get more comfortable. Using the 10-year index (blue line), by week count this is the week the contract tends to post its [...]

I know we are only roughly halfway through September (that alone is hard to believe), but watching CNBC every day I'm seeing a lot of discussion about the seasonal selloff US stock indexes tend to see this month. Granted, I [...]

As I mentioned in Price Distribution Analysis, the July 2021 Kansas City (HRW) wheat contract completely ignored the historic 5-year (red line) and 10-year (blue line) seasonal indexes over the 12 months from the first weekly closes of July 2020 [...]

The best word to describe the seasonal studies for October feeder cattle is "mess". There aren't many actual patterns for either the 5-year index (red line) or 10-year index (blue line). However, if you squint your eyes just right the [...]

The cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price, intrinsic value of the market) was calculated at $13.58 last Friday, the highest weekly settlement for the second week of August since $16.58 back in 2012. The end [...]

When it comes to cash markets and end users, there's a phase that is only said in hushed tones for it's implication is one of coming hard times. But as I look at corn's cash market as the 2020-2021 marketing [...]

As I've talked about in both Weekly Analysis and Price Distribution Analysis, October (and December) lean hogs remain high in its previous 5-year price distribution range while its secondary downtrend remains down. We can all see the latter on this [...]

Given SRW wheat's fundamentals continue to grow more bearish, the rocket ride the cmdty National SRW Wheat Price Index (SWPI, weighted national average cash price) seems to be defying gravity. Wednesday's calculation of $6.8432 was down 0.65 ent for the [...]

It is understandable if the November soybean contract treads carefully this week, so as not to wake the bears. As its seasonal study shows the 5-year index (red line), 10-year index (blue line), and 9-year index (purple line, the 10-year [...]

Last week's uptick by December 2021 corn (green line) saw the contract close above its previous 4-week high weekly close of $5.4525. While the pattern still looks to be sideways, with the next high up at $5.7975 from the week [...]

The December 2021 futures contract (green line) has extended its contra-seasonal uptrend this week, closing at 90.68 (cents per pound) Thursday. As discussed in Price Distribution Analysis, this put the contract in the upper 11% of its price distribution range [...]

Wednesday saw the new-crop July 2022 Kansas City (HRW) contract close at $6.9625 (green circle marker), down $7.75 cents for the day. Despite the selloff, the 2022 contract (green line) is following a similar contra-seasonal path as the 2021 contract [...]

November soybean futures continues to make dramatic moves, most recently Tuesday morning's 37.5-cent selloff that has seen the contract fall to a low of $13.16. This easily erased odd 4.25-cent rally that now looks sandwiched between last Friday's 28.5-cent free [...]

The December 2021 corn contract (green line) closed last week at $5.4525, up 2.25 cents for the week and continuing the consolidation seen on this weekly close-only seasonal study. We could almost consider Dec 21 in a contra-seasonal sideways trend [...]

Let me start by reminding everyone that sometimes markets don't have to make sense, but eventually they seem to work themselves out. The former part of that statement comes into play with this morning's look at October live cattle, and [...]

The cmdty National Hard Red Winter (HRW) Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) for 2021-2022 (green line) continues to track with its 5-yaer seasonal index (red line), though the selloff through the first half of Q1 (June-July-August) [...]

The last time I posted an update on November soybeans' seasonality, a gentleman sent in a comment saying the 10-year index (blue line) would look much different if 2012 was taken out of the equation. I did that, creating the [...]

We are just coming out of one of the major eating holidays for the US, where gluttony rules and the meaning of the day is largely loss. I'm pointing my finger at the annual Hot Dog eating contest one by [...]

While the Kansas City HRW wheat market in general continues to amaze with its strength as harvest gains momentum, a look at this seasonal study for the cmdty National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) shows [...]

As I mentioned in Weekly Analysis: Soybeans Tuesday morning the November 2022 futures contract (green line) is starting to look heavy, as if it has established an earlier than normal seasonal high and could now move lower through the rest [...]

As I mentioned in Weekly Analysis: Corn Monday morning, a strong argument could be made for the December 2021 corn contract having already established its seasonal top. Seasonal studies show both the 5-year (red line) and 10-year (blue line) indexes [...]

As I'll be talking about in my next Weekly Column, "Two Roads", Robert Frost's famous poem is not only one of my favorite pieces of writing of any kind, but perfect analysis of new-crop December corn as it takes its [...]

In a matter of hours, the hard red winter wheat market will embark on its next journey known as its 2021-2022 marketing year. As I mentioned in Price Distribution Analysis ("Still Attractive"), it does so with the July Kansas City [...]

Based on this seasonal chart for December corn, the next two weeks should be intriguing so have your popcorn ready. Both the 5-year index (red line) and 10-year index (blue line) show seasonal high weekly closes occurring the first week [...]

Now that the May Cattle on Feed report is out of the way, showing April placements and marketings as well as the May 1 cattle on feed number, we can turn some of our attention to the October-December live cattle [...]

As I mentioned in Friday's Morning Commentary, USDA will release its latest Cattle on Feed report showing April placements and marketings and the May 1 on feed number. We've already seen April beef slaughter numbers were record large, coming in [...]

As we come out of another wet weekend, this week looks to be important for the future direction of December corn. Yes, I know it is only the beginning of the second half of May, but the 2021 contract (green [...]

The November 2021 futures contract (green line) continues to show the strongest correlation to what we saw with the November 2012 contract (gold line), with weekly closes only showing an r-squared of 86.1%. This indicates the 2021 edition is still [...]

I've already heard through the grapevine there is a great deal of gnashing of teeth and rending of clothes regarding the Monday selloff in December corn. To those folks I'd say: Relax, and keep in mind a number of market [...]

The December 2021 contract (green line) continues to chug higher, hitting Tuesday morning's intermission priced at $5.69 (green circle marker). This was just off its overnight session high of $5.7150 and still a ways below las week's new contract high [...]

I had a couple interesting conversations Wednesday afternoon, both having to do with live cattle fundamentals. One gentleman was bearish. looking at the same futures spreads I am, with the other gentleman making a compelling bullish longer-term argument. Let's start [...]

A good friend asked me today if I had run out of things to say about corn and soybeans. When I chuckled and said, "Yes", he said, "Changing the subject, then, what do you see in diesel fuel?" It's a [...]

As you know, many of my ideas for charts and studies comes from conversations I have with all of you (Thanks again). Recently, I was visiting with a good friend about the lean hog market, and he made the comment, [...]

Following up with my latest Weekly Column, "Corn Comparison", I wanted to show you how the Dec 2021 corn contract compares to some of the key contracts of the past. For this study I looked for the three tightest correlating [...]

As I mentioned in Tuesday afternoon's Chart of the day, "June Live Cattle: Surfing Steers", the June-August live cattle futures spread is trending down, indicating an increasingly bearish supply and demand situation. Recall from the March 7 Seasonal Analysis post [...]

I've taken a different approach to this seasonal study of November soybeans, looking at price patterns for contracts comparable to what the 2021 issue (green line) is posting. For this study I'm looking at the disparate paths taken by the [...]

Seasonally, December 2021 corn still looks to be tracking the path laid out by the 2014 issue, though it does look as if it could ignore the backtracking seen 7 years ago through the early part of April before rallying [...]

The overnight session Sunday night through Monday morning saw Dec Corn post a low of $4.6325, closing the session at that mark (green circle marker). Support at the previous 4-week low is last week's low of $4.63, meaning the contract [...]

You can say the June-August lean hog futures spread is flying, or soaring, or even rocketing higher, but the one constant however it is phrased is that the spread shows the market is fundamentally bullish. Yet somehow, having written that [...]

I had a question come in regarding the seasonality of crude oil. Looking back through the archives, it has been a while since I talked about this King of Commodities, so I took some time to update my indexes. Let [...]

As we head toward the end of March, there continue to be a number of similarities between the December 2021 futures contract (green line) and the path laid out by the 2014 contract (gold line) 7 years ago. Most recently, [...]

After posting Friday morning's Chart of the Day looking at RBOB gasoline, I immediately had a question come in about distillates. First, thank you. I truly appreciate the correspondence and follow-up questions from all of you. Second, the spot-month distillates [...]

As I mentioned in Thursday's Morning Commentary, the new-crop July Kansas City (HRW) wheat contract is working toward a test of short-term support at its previous 4-day low of $5.9675 from this past Tuesday. The overnight session saw the contract [...]

I will be talking more about the Live Cattle market in my next Weekly Column, but I want to set the stage by showing what has happened in the April-June futures spread. The 2021 edition (green line) has been in [...]

I just visited with a good friend, who told me of another service talking about a potential seasonal move in the June-December lean hog futures spread. Supposedly, the spread is coming up on a timeframe when June starts to lose [...]

In my previous post on the June-August lean hog futures spread (Feb. 4, "A Seasonal Slide") I talked about how the 2021 edition (green line) was neutral, sitting near its previous 4-year average (purple line) heading into a normal seasonal [...]

I had a request to post this seasonal look at June live cattle, given we are set to embark on grilling season as we make our way through spring and into summer. The first thing that jumps out at me [...]

A good friend asked about this chart I posted on the larger Twitter site, as it sparked a general conversation about the big selloff posted by November soybeans back in 2008 (blue line). Based on weekly closes only, the November [...]

I had a request come in for a look at the June-August live cattle futures spread. While my first inclination was to post it as Sunday's Chart of the Da, after updating my study comparing it against its history I [...]

Now that we've clearly crossed the threshold into meteorological spring, analysts immediately like to start talking analogous year's for new-crop contracts. Those of you who have been with me for any time at all know I don't believe in analogous [...]

We've reached The End of the 6-month planning period when theoretically US producers decide what to plant this coming spring. The annual debate between corn and soybeans will now heat up even more given the average difference in weekly closing [...]

I had a request come in for this October Feeder Cattle seasonal study with the question, "What do they normally do after mid-February?" As you can see from the attached chart, the answer is exactly clear, from a seasonal point [...]

Having reached the midpoint of February there is only two weeks remaining in the six-month Planning Season when US producers theoretically finalize there plan for planted acres this coming spring. Friday's close put the November soybean/December corn futures spread at [...]

With the first week of February now behind us we can close the book on Groundhog Week and turn our attention to the last three weeks of Planning Season, the six-month period when US producers theoretically finalize their plan or [...]

I was visiting with a good friend about the lean hog market Wednesday afternoon, and he asked a number of good questions. The one that stood out to me the most was this: At what point do we switch from [...]

As I talked about in Monday afternoon's Chart of the Day "Breakdown", the daily chart for the new-crop July 2021 Kansas City (HRW) wheat futures contract is showing a minor (short-term) 3-wave downtrend. However, a look at the weekly close-only [...]

As January came to a close the November 2021 soybean futures contract was 2.57 times the price of December 2021 corn futures (green circle marker). This was still near the previous 10-year high of 2.63 from 2017 while continuing to [...]

I had a question come in this morning asking if its was time to lock in fuel needs for 2021. Quite honestly, following the tumultuous path taken during 2020 I've been a bit more cautious looking for the opportunity to [...]

I was watching Mad Money on CNBC Tuesday evening and host Jim Cramer started talking about technical analyst Larry Williams' work. One of the charts he pulled up was Amazon's weekly, and he compared the trend of the stock to [...]

We are now just over two-thirds through the sprig 2021 Planning Season, not to be confused with the actual "Planting Season" that will be cranking up in less than 90 days. As I've talked about before, Planning season is the [...]

I had a request come in for an updated look at the November soybean/December corn futures spread as we approach the end of the December, two-thirds through next spring's Planning season from September through February. Early Tuesday morning's prices puts [...]

The Feb live cattle contract posted an impressive session, gaining as much as $1.325 on strong commercial buying before easing back a bit into the close. Still, when the dust had settled, the February-April futures spread was sitting at (-$3.75), [...]

I had a great question come in Wednesday morning, asking me about the difference in reading futures spreads of grain and livestock. It is a bit complicated, and a subject I will devote a good deal of time to in [...]

Continuing the Two Roads Diverged saga of December 2021 corn, I'm reminded of a short story our son told us about hiking in Colorado. He and his friends were making their way up Mt. Cutler, and as they neared the [...]

New-crop July Kansas City (HRW) wheat has posted some big swings over the last number of weeks, all while staying in a "normal" seasonal sideways pattern. I know, at first glance the trend of the 2021 contract (green line) seems [...]

Recall from last week in this space, I talked about how the Dec 2021 corn contract had stepped to the trailhead of its 12-month seasonal journey. Ahead of it lay two roads from which to choose: It could following the [...]

The November 2021 soybean futures contract is priced at 2.55 times the December 2021 corn futures contracts as of Tuesday's close (green circle marker). This continues to run just below the previous 10-year high (red line) for this week of [...]

This being the first weekly close in December (2020), the December 2021 corn contract stands at the trailhead of its 12-month seasonal path. As you can see from this chart, there is an immediate divergence between the 5-year (red line) [...]

I had a number of conversation concerning cattle Tuesday, so I'll be focusing on both live and feeder cattle markets over the coming days. I'll get the ball rolling with a look at seasonality for the February live cattle contract. [...]

The strong rally in the energy complex in general, the distillates (heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) market in particular, has me concerned about getting seasonal purchases in place for 2021. As this study shows, the market's tendency is [...]

... not when you have too. That saying, along with another one I read on Twitter this week ("Bacon = Meat Candy") could certainly keep the Feb-April lean hog spread on its seasonal path as we finish off fall and [...]

Continuing the discussion of the bearish February live cattle contract, I had a question come in asking how far out of line the Feb-June spread was with its seasonal patterns. Here we see the 2021 edition (green line) continues to [...]

It's often a tossup as to where I put an updated basis study, as it could go in either Basis Analysis of Seasonal Analysis. As you can see, I've put this updated Corn Basis study in Seasonal Analysis because that's [...]

Let's take a look at what the 2021 November Soybean/December Corn spread (green line) is showing us as we make our way through Planting Decision season that is generally viewed as running from September through February. Monday's close had November [...]

I had a question come in Tuesday afternoon, asking if there was a month coming up when noncommercial traders tend to put pressure on soybeans (or corn) to close out the year? The interest is ramped up in 2020 given [...]

I've had a number of conversations this week regarding the December 2021 corn contract, with a lot of interest in getting some of next year's production on the books. A conversation Wednesday afternoon turned toward seasonality, so I reconfigured my [...]

I had a question come in Monday afternoon regarding the Feb-June live cattle spread*. My friend has been watching this spread, and noticing the weakness of the Feb 2021 contract in relation to June 2021 wondered if the spread looked [...]

As I mentioned in Tuesday's Morning Commentary, national average corn basis continues to firm as harvest progresses. Monday afternoon saw the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) calculated at 26.7 cents under December futures (right hand green [...]

I had a tough question come in Thursday afternoon, one I couldn't answer directly. My friend asked, "Darin, the years December corn makes its high in January only to have the contract print new highs during or after harvest, what [...]

As you recall from other pieces of my analysis and commentary, I see US stock markets have peaked meaning we should be in the phase of the overall market cycle when stocks are moving lower and the US dollar is [...]

I was visiting back and forth with a good friend about the soybean market over the course of Wednesday's session, watching in awe and with some trepidation as the November contract continued to extend its rally through the close. As [...]