During my appearance Monday on the Agriculture of America talk show, my friend and host Mike Pearson and I were talking about the diesel fuel market. Our conversation included technical patterns and the recent bullish turn in seasonal tendencies, all [...]

It has been a while since I posted a price distribution study, mainly because most commodity markets remain in the process of redrawing historic ranges. It has been quite a run in commodities the last couple years, highlighted by strong [...]

I was visiting with a good friend in the cattle industry, and the subject soon turned to feeder cattle. He told me there was growing chatter from folks wanting to buy futures, feeling the sky is the limit for feeder [...]

While November soybeans have seen a seasonal slide from its high weekly close of $15.6825 (see Seasonal Analysis), Monday's close by the contract of $14.3275 (green column) still had the 2022 edition in the upper 6% of its historic price [...]

As I mentioned in Seasonal Analysis, December corn dropped to a close of $6.74 last Friday as compared to the previous Friday's settlement of $7.31. This was a large enough move to take the 2022 contract (green column) from the [...]

One of the phone calls I had yesterday was about August feeder cattle, prompted by my the chart of the day talking about how the contract had extended its secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend Wednesday ("August Feeder Cattle: Weak Weekly"). My friend [...]

As I talked about in Weekly Analysis: Soybeans, the November 2022 contract closed Monday at $12.31, putting it in the upper 23% of its price distribution[i] range based on weekly closes through the 2012 contract. This tells us the 2022 issue, [...]

As I talked about in Weekly Analysis: Corn, the December 2022 contract finished last week priced at $5.51, putting it in the upper 17% of its price distribution[i] range based on weekly closes through the 2012 contract. This tells us the [...]

Continuing on with the requested look at live cattle futures price distribution, Thursday's post has to do with the June contract. Similar to what we saw in Wednesday's discussion of the April issue, June live cattle closing at $131.825 put [...]

Let me begin by saying I appreciation the participation from all of you, as always. I had a request come in Wednesday morning for a look at Price Distribution for April, June, and August live cattle. To get the ball [...]

The new-crop July 2022 Kansas City (HRW) wheat contract has popped up in a number of conversations this week, more often than not in the form of a question as to whether is was time to get some of next [...]

October feeder cattle closed Monday at $164.95, putting the contract in the upper 20% of its price distribution range based on weekly closes only back through the 2011 contract. This was just slightly below the contract's high weekly close of [...]

A common theme for most of my price distribution studies is individual contracts or markets in general are priced in the far upper reaches of there ranges regardless of timeframe. The latest case is the cmdty National Soybean Price Index [...]

Those of you who have studied my price distribution charts over the years will notice something odd about this one for the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price). For those of you relatively new to [...]

Yes my friends, pigs can indeed fly, or in the case of the October (and December) 2021 contract soar like an eagle. Wednesday's close of $87.025 (red column) had October in the upper 6% of its price distribution range based [...]

The July 2022 Chicago (SRW) contract closed at $7.2625 Wednesday, putting it in the upper 16% of the contract's price distribution range based on weekly closes back through the 2012 contract. While we know little to nothing about the 2022 [...]

The consolidation pattern seen on the weekly close only chart for November soybeans (see the discussion in Seasonal Analysis, "Holding the Bears at Bay") is also evident on the contract's price distribution study. Tuesday morning finds November 2021 soybeans priced [...]

Last Friday saw the December 2021 contract close at $5.5650, a price that put it in the upper 19% (green column) of its price distribution range based on weekly closes only back through the 2011 contract. The 2022 issue (red [...]

Like a number of other contracts, new-crop December cotton finds itself in the rarified air deep in the upper-third of its price distribution range. Thursday's close of 90.68 (cents per pound) put December 2021 cotton in the upper 11% of [...]

As I mentioned in Seasonal Analysis, Wednesday's close by the July 2022 Kansas City (HRW) wheat contract at $6.9625 (red column) put it in the upper 21% of its price distribution range based on weekly closes dating back through the [...]

When studying the previous 10-year price distribution for November soybeans, based on weekly closes only, the first this that jumps out at me is the degree of the range. Far to the left we see $8.30 is the boundary for [...]

Last Friday's close of $5.4525 by the December 2021 contract (green column) put it in the upper 22% of its price distribution range (based on weekly closes only) dating back through the 2011 contract. While this could still be viewed [...]

I'll admit, I wasn't looking for live cattle issue to hit new contract highs Wednesday. Despite the recent gains by August versus October, I still see a bearish supply and demand situation given where that spread is trading with the [...]

One of the first things you'll likely notice about this price distribution chart for December corn is that I've expanded the data from the previous 5 years to the previous 13 years. The study now takes into account the rally [...]

As I mentioned in my latest Weekly Column, "Waiting for Wheat Harvest", the 2021 July Kansas City wheat contract closed last Friday at $6.13, putting it in the upper 41% of its price distribution range dating back through the 2011 [...]

As I mentioned in Tuesday morning's seasonal analysis of November soybeans, the 12-month path the 2021 contract is on is comparable to what we saw from 2012 through 2014. Given that, I've expanded this November soybean price distribution study as [...]

New-crop December 2020 corn (solid red column) closed last week at $4.4850, putting it in the upper 2% of its price distribution range based on weekly closes only back through the 2014 contract. While the theory behind this study is [...]

In my latest Weekly Column, "Mincemeat Pie", I applied Newsom's Market Rules to the live cattle market. This included a brief discussion of Rule #3: Use filters to manage risk. One of these filters is Price Distribution, a study I [...]

New-crop December 2021 corn futures popped to a new contract high of $4.7950 early Friday morning, again raising the question of "How high is high". I've had a number of conversations this week about whether or not it was time [...]

Last week's close by April Lean Hogs at $87.15 was the second highest weekly close by an April lean hog contract dating back through the 2016 issue, trailing only the $90.00 posted by the 2020 issue the week of April [...]

Sometimes when I update a chart or study, I get a bit of a surprise. Such was the case again Wednesday morning as I updated my Price Distribution study for April Live Cattle, a follow-up to the Chart of the [...]

We may have to give some serious consideration to getting some new-crop corn on the books, based on a number of different factors: The December 2021 contract looks to have established a secondary downtrend on its weekly chart (see Weekly [...]

I just got of the phone with a good friend in the cattle industry, a younger gentleman who has the opportunity to visit daily with those who much older who have spent their entire lives watching cattle (and hog) markets. [...]

This price distribution chart for the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) is a solid example of what happens when: Global markets are opened up again Supplies are approaching historically tight levels For a quick [...]

I wanted to follow up Sunday's look at December corn with an updated Price Distribution post for November soybeans. Again, this being Groundhog Week, the spotlight is bright on these two contracts as the battle for 2021 spring planted acres [...]

I had a request come in for an updated look at new-crop Price Distribution studies for corn and soybeans. Starting with December Corn, we see last Friday's close of $4.4525 puts the 2021 contract in the upper 9% of its [...]

November 2021 soybeans posted a new contract high of $10.7075 early Wednesday morning, a day after registering a new high daily close of $10.65 Tuesday. I've had a few conversations over the last couple days with the subject being the [...]

I had a question come in over the weekend regarding the new-crop July 2021 Kansas City (HRW) wheat contract. Given the Chart of the Day discussion from Wednesday, December 2 ("Winter Fun for Summer Winter Wheat"), my friend wanted to [...]

As I talked about in my latest Weekly Column, "The Price Is Right", the cash soybean market looks to be on "the threshold of getting interesting" if indeed the the United States is set to turn the page and rejoin [...]

The rally during the month of November 2020 has lifted the November 2021 soybean futures contract (green column) deep into the upper 33% of the price distribution range for November contracts back through the 2014 issue. A month ago, in [...]

A good friend sent me a message Monday asking a simple question, "Is it time to buy February live cattle?" I reverted back to my days as a Political Science major and gave him an answer that could be interpreted [...]

I had a great question come in again Monday afternoon, this one having to do with August feeder cattle. My friend asked, "How does one read a weekly chart of a contract with little to no volume or open interest? [...]

As I talked about over the weekend, the December 2020 contract had an interesting week last week. Tuesday saw the contract post a new high of $4.2225, putting it in the upper 17% of its price distribution range (blue striped [...]

We've almost reached the end of the road for the November 2020 soybean futures contract, with option expiration this coming Friday before moving into delivery the week after that. The 2020 contract has etched its name in the record books, [...]

One could say that when it comes to King Corn, Cash is King. The sharp rally as September came to a close and October got rolling saw the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) climb [...]

As I mentioned in Morning Commentary Thursday, the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) was calculated at $3.38 Wednesday afternoon, putting it almost at the midpoint of its price distribution range dating back through the [...]

One of the studies I mentioned in Monday's Morning Commentary was price distribution for the December corn futures contract. The overnight through early morning selloff saw the Dec 2020 contract fall back to a low of $3.75 (green column), putting [...]

The Monday night into Tuesday morning overnight session saw November soybeans hit a high of $10.05 3/4 (solid red column), putting it in the upper 28% of its price distribution range (based on weekly closes only) back through the 2014 [...]

As I mentioned Thursday afternoon, the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) was calculated at $9.19 1/2 (green column), a price high enough to put it in the upper 32% of the NSPI's price distribution [...]

Thursday's close by the November 2020 soybean contract (green column) put it in the upper 39% of its historic price distribution range based on weekly closes back through the 2014 contracts. The high of the day, $9.82, bumped the contract [...]

Recall the theory behind my price distribution analysis is to find buying and selling opportunities based on idea traders like to buy when a market is oversold, or in the lower 33% (left hand side gold column) of its range, [...]

Here's something one doesn't get to say often: July Kansas City wheat looks attractive. No, I haven't been drinking, though as I said on Twitter earlier today when the conversation on CNBC mentioned Woodford Reserve, I am thirsty. The contract's [...]

I had an interesting conversation with a friend earlier this afternoon. We were talking about the ongoing rally in November soybeans, commentary on the degree of the move we have seen the last three weeks. After closing the week of [...]

A good friend and I were talking about November feeder cattle over the weekend, with the conversation tied to the variety of option strategies I discussed in Weekly Analysis: Livestock and Dairy Sunday afternoon. Let's take a look at Nov [...]

One of the constant themes of all I've posted Saturday (August 1) morning is the low price of December 2020 corn. This past Friday saw the contract close at $3.27 (solid red column), putting it in the lower 1% of [...]

As I mentioned in this past weekend's Weekly Analysis: Wheat and again in Monday's Morning Commentary, the SRW wheat market has rocketed into the upper reaches of its price distribution range. New-crop July 2021 futures have been into the upper [...]

As I mentioned in this past weekend's Weekly Analysis and Monday's Morning Commentary, the new-crop July 2021 Chicago contract has climbed high into the price distribution range for weekly closes dating back through the 2016 contract. Last Friday's settlement of [...]

As I talked about in my latest Weekly Column ("Just My Type"), one of the studies I've developed to understand the psychology of a market is price distribution. This is based on the simple market adage of "buy low and [...]

A friend just called in and we talked about the prospects for Dec lean hogs. His idea was that the market was low enough to think about buying, and wanted to know if I saw something similar. After chatting for [...]

The July 2020 corn contract closed last week at $3.18 1/2 (rounded to $3.19 on this price distribution study), the lowest weekly close for a July corn contract (red column) dating back through the 2014 issue. Given that, one would [...]

At first glance this Price Distribution chart looks to be a dizzying array of colorful columns, though each one tell a different story. First, the solid red column shows where the Dec 2020 contract sits in the historic range, weekly [...]

About a month ago, in this same spot, I talked about how the hole the November soybean contract was in might not get much deeper. At the time Nov beans were priced near $8.65, putting the contract in the lower [...]

Another piece to the puzzle that is new-crop July Kansas City wheat is this look at the price distribution chart for the futures contract, based on weekly closes back through the 2016 contract. Here we see Wednesday's close for the [...]

It wasn't all that long ago I posted a Price Distribution chart for cash and old-crop (2019-2020) soybean futures that showed both markets in the lower percentages of their respective price distribution ranges. Since then we've seen strong rallies in [...]

I had a question come in about new-crop 2020 soybeans, but instead of using the November contract my friend uses the January for pricing. Recall from this past weekend's Weekly Analysis when I was talking about how the Nov 2020 [...]

Some of the side roads I get on while doing Weekly Analysis is updating seasonal and price distribution studies for the various markets. This morning, as I was working on Oilseeds, this price distribution table for November soybeans jumped out [...]

Early Thursday morning saw the more active old-crop May soybean contract fall as much as 13 cents before abruptly bouncing again. While we don't know why the market won't go lower, at least not as far and fast as its [...]

An early morning phone call Wednesday was centered on the question of, "Should I sell some of my 2019 corn despite the recent sell-off?" Usually, I don't like to sell in the midst of a sell-off, but the corn market [...]

I just updated Seasonal Analysis with a look at how the November 2020 contract continues to follow the path laid out by the 2019 contract. A year ago we saw November soybeans post a low weekly close of $8.33 1/4 [...]

I had a request come in for a look at this price distribution study for April lean hogs. The April contract has recently taken over the role of heaviest traded from February, just in time to see it fall almost [...]

The distillates market continues to melt down, with the spot-month contract hitting a low near $1.66 Monday morning before bouncing back to about $1.68. This puts the spot-month contract in the lower 42% of the market's price distribution range (based [...]

November soybean contracts, both the 2020 (solid red column) and 2021 (red striped column), remain stuck in the middle third of the price distribution range (weekly close only) back through the 2014 contract. The lower-third (left hand gold column) starts [...]

The extraordinary contra-seasonal rally posted by the July Kansas City (HRW) contract since last September (for more information, see Wednesday's post in Seasonal Analysis), has take the contract to a high today (Wednesday, January 15) of $5.19, and sitting near [...]

This is the first time I've posted the price distribution chart for new-crop November canola on this website, and the first thing that jumps out at me is the slightly different shape its weekly close form as compared to November [...]

Good morning everyone. Not that the over-hyped events of USDA's January reports have come and gone, it's time to get back to the work of using markets to our best advantage. This started immediately Friday afternoon, as a friend contacted [...]

Last week's rally by the 2020 July Kansas City (HRW) wheat contract saw it post a high of $4.96 1/2 before closing at $4.95 1/2 (red column). This contra-seasonal rally (see Friday's Seasonal Analysis, "Not Unprecedented, But Close") has July [...]

Recall from Tuesday's discussion of November soybeans' price distribution chart that a suggestion was made to post December corn as well. As always, I appreciate the questions and suggestions. As before, let me set the groundwork for what this chart [...]

I had a request come in to update my new-crop November soybean and December corn price distribution charts. I quickly ran the traps, and it has indeed been awhile since I've posted on these two contracts, with a lot of [...]

As discussed in Weekly Analysis today (Sunday, December 15) the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national cash average) was calculated last Friday near $3.65 (green column). This put the NCPI in the upper 13% of its price distribution [...]

Some of you may have found your way here from Tuesday's Chart of the Day "Cash Soybeans: To Sell or Not to Sell...", analysis that included a reference to the price distribution chart for the cmdty National Soybean Price Index [...]

Let me start this by saying once again, I appreciate all the questions you folks send in. It let's me know what you are interested in, and on my part, I'll do what I can to create a post whatever [...]

The corn market continues to intrigue, with the latest development two consecutive days of USDA announcing export sales of 2019-2020 supplies to unknown destinations. All this while the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) was [...]

As I mentioned in Thursday's Afternoon Commentary, the rally in soybean futures to a higher daily close could've been tied to the recent sell-off in the market in general, the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average) in [...]

The cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average) continues to sit above the clouds, with last Friday's calculation of $3.74 (green column) keeping the cash market in the upper 8% of weekly closes dating back through the 2014-2015 [...]

A customer called me last night, and we talked about accumulator contracts. Looking ahead to the 2020 crop, a buyer had contacted him about getting some corn locked in, or at least start the process of setting the initial price. [...]

With the November 2019 futures contract moving into delivery this week, it's time to turn more attention to the new-crop 2020 contract. As I mentioned in this past weekend's Weekly Analysis: Oilseeds, Nov 2020 soybeans posted a bearish key reversal [...]

As I discussed in Weekly Analysis of Wheat this past weekend, the new-crop July 2020 Kansas City contract remains in a secondary (intermediate term) uptrend with an initial upside target near $5.03. July KC has posted a solid rally of [...]

As I mentioned in Thursday's Chart of the Day, I'm looking at a number of March corn studies Thursday following a Wednesday afternoon conversation with a customer curious about hedge opportunities with the contract. In the Chart Analysis I mentioned [...]

Those of you following with the Theoretical Positions in my Weekly Analysis updates will recall that earlier this week (Monday, October 14), the cash corn position was updated with a sale of roughly 25% of 2019 production. This tied in [...]

I was recently in on a discussion regarding forward contracting 2020 soybeans. This week has seen the contract, a year out, extend its recent rally beyond the previous weekly peak of $9.69 1/2 (week of July 15, 2019) to a [...]

Last week saw the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average) post a big strong 37-cent rally, allowing cash soybeans to make a big move from the lower 15% of its price distribution range ($8.03) into the lower [...]

If you are keeping up with my analysis of the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average) you'll recall that I still see it in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend and a minor (short-term) downtrend (for more information, see [...]

If you've been following along with this morning's analysis you'll recall that the July Kansas City wheat contract still looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend with its next move dependent on Friday's (October 4) close in relation [...]

I had an interesting conversation with a subscriber this morning, talking about the different Dec corn contracts and whether or not they were priced at attractive sell levels. This particular individual was, and has been, looking ahead at the Dec [...]

Does the title of this piece suggest a recommendation? No. As I looked at this 7-year price distribution chart for the new-crop December cotton contract, based on weekly closes only, I thought of the Ray Charles' song "Crying Time". Why? [...]

To close out Tuesday's analysis of the Kansas City July 2020 contract (for additional analysis, see Charts and Seasonal Analysis), let's take a look at the contract's price distribution chart for 2013 through the present. This chart, based on weekly [...]

This updated look at November soybeans’ price distribution chart, based on weekly closes going back through the 2013 contract, shows what how things can change when futures rally 40-plus cents. The 2019 contract (red column) moved from the lower 4% [...]

As this 7-year price distribution chart, based on weekly closes only, for Dec corn shows the 2019 contract (red column) remains in the lower 20%, a level noncommercial traders could continue to view as an attractive buying opportunity. Those not [...]

As discussed in Weekly Analysis, last week's strong rally by the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) moved the NCPI from the upper 47% the previous week into the upper 25% of its 5-year price [...]

This look at November soybeans' price distribution chart, based on weekly closes going back through the 2013 contract, is quite sobering. The 2019 contract (red column) closed Thursday at $8.61 1/2, putting it in the lower 4% of the distribution [...]

I've had some customers ask if I could post my price distribution charts again, so we built this page to house them. I'm starting the series off with another look at December corn futures, since it seems to be getting [...]