A Cheaper Dollar

2022-05-19T14:51:54-05:00May 19th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Sometimes things sneak up on you at the end of a quiet day. I hadn’t been tracking the US dollar index that closely Thursday, finally checking in on it as other markets started to close. All I can [...]

A Good Day For…

2022-05-18T14:34:06-05:00May 18th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday was a good day for planting corn or moving cattle, for mowing the yard or cleaning out a boot pit. It was a good day for doing nearly anything but watching markets unless one was long US [...]

Typical Tuesday

2022-05-17T15:05:12-05:00May 17th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There wasn’t much we could consider extraordinary about Tuesday’s markets, except for maybe the continued rally in lean hogs. Here we see the more active July contract (though I’ve longed considered it as useful as a hip pocket [...]

A Week in a Day

2022-05-16T14:21:19-05:00May 16th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I think we can close the markets for the week on the idea most did a week’s worth of work in one day. I’m talking mostly about the grain and oilseed sector that saw, among other things, a [...]

A Wild Wednesday

2022-05-11T14:37:53-05:00May 11th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I’ve mentioned in the past the commodity complex tends to see wild activity on Wednesday’s as noncommercial traders jump back into markets. This occurs after data for the next round of CFTC Commitments of Traders reports is pulled [...]

Something for Everyone

2022-05-10T14:33:15-05:00May 10th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I’m not quite sure what to read into Tuesday’s session. Some of the markets that closed higher did so on light trade volume (e.g corn, soybeans) while some markets closing lower did so with quite a flourish (e.g. [...]

Alone Again, Naturally

2022-05-06T14:20:13-05:00May 6th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If you need a feel-good, end of the week, head to the bar on the way home song, Gilbert O’Sullivan’s classic “Alone Again (Naturally)” is NOT the one you want. Nevertheless, it’s a great song, and the first [...]

Delayed Reaction

2022-05-05T14:51:25-05:00May 5th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As has become routine, markets waited a day to react to the latest rate hike announcement by the US Federal Reserve. After I posted Afternoon Commentary Wednesday, US stock indexes staged a powerful yet strange rally. It certainly [...]

A Lot of Energy

2022-05-04T14:28:59-05:00May 4th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The US Federal Open Market Committee announced a 50-basis point increase in the Fed-fund rate. Reportedly this was the largest rate move since 2000, raising it to the vague area of 0.75% to 1.0%, in an “aggressive” attempt [...]

Anticipation

2022-05-03T15:13:26-05:00May 3rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity complex in general was under pressure again Tuesday, giving all indication traders are looking ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee statement regarding interest rates. The anticipation is a big hike is coming, the degree a [...]

That Was Interesting

2022-04-25T14:39:29-05:00April 25th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If nothing else, Monday was an interesting start to the week. Of course, the key talking point on financial television, regardless of which one you landed on, was Elon Musk’s bid to buy Twitter. The French Presidential election [...]

Au Revoir

2022-04-22T15:01:12-05:00April 22nd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I had to look this one up, but the French phrase “au revoir” can be interpreted as “until we see each other again”. It fits well this Friday afternoon because when next we meet the French will have [...]

Cancel Culture

2022-04-21T15:39:43-05:00April 21st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s entirely possible Thursday’s selloff in the grain and oilseed complex had nothing to do with what looked to be early signs of old-crop export sales cancellations in the latest weekly export sales and shipments update. After all, [...]

The Phrase That Pays

2022-04-19T15:06:23-05:00April 19th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: We all know the old cliché “Turnaround Tuesday”, but this week it would’ve paid off for those betting varying degrees of Monday’s moves would be erased. Energies were again in the spotlight with natural gas losing as much [...]

Holy Buckets!

2022-04-18T14:20:59-05:00April 18th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A good friend from central Nebraska sent me a two-word message midday Monday, but those two words said all that was needed to describe markets. “Holy buckets!”, was the entirety of the message. Knowing my friend, I knew [...]

An Early End

2022-04-14T14:27:28-05:00April 14th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Due to Friday’s holiday, Thursday close brings about the end of the week. One didn’t have to look far for signs markets are closed tomorrow as traders seemed to be sparse in nearly every market sector. This allowed [...]

When the Rolling Ends

2022-04-13T15:14:59-05:00April 13th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was as if a switch was flipped Wednesday. Shortly before 13:00 (CT) a good friend shot me a message that read, “Look at that (May-July corn spread) chart!!!” He was right. Early in the day I saw [...]

Bold Moves

2022-04-12T14:30:53-05:00April 12th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday was one of those days when markets in nearly every sector made bold moves. Of course we have to start with energies where Brent crude rallied as much as 7.2% while WTI jumped 7.5%, taking the latter [...]

Break Out the Erasers

2022-04-11T14:18:10-05:00April 11th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Remember those gains many commodity markets posted last Friday? Well, traders broke out the erasers Monday resulting in some large selloffs across a number of different sectors. Let’s start with energies where spot-month WTI crude oil fell as [...]

Stampeding Into the Weekend

2022-04-08T14:52:59-05:00April 8th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Commodity complex bulls stampeded into the weekend, almost every market, nearly every contract. One of the outliers was natural gas, oddly enough, after the spot-month contract posted a new 13-year high of $6.538 early in the day. For [...]

Opening Day

2022-04-07T14:24:03-05:00April 7th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Not only is Thursday Opening Day for Major League Baseball in the US, it could also be considered Opening Day for the April round of the Goldman Roll. The latter was obvious in a number of markets, particularly [...]

Low Volume, High Volatility

2022-04-06T14:25:18-05:00April 6th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets made big moves Wednesday, though many of them were showing low trade volume late in the day. In terms of market moves the spotlight was on energies once again, with crude oil falling as [...]

Big Move Monday

2022-04-04T15:08:09-05:00April 4th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If I were to describe Monday’s market activity with one phrase, it would be “big moves”. There were a lot of potential reasons ‘why’, setting aside Newsom’s Market Rule #5[i] for the time being, including the horrific images [...]

What a Week it Was

2022-04-01T14:31:51-05:00April 1st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Markets look a lot different heading into this weekend than they did last Friday, and all it took (for the most part) was some imaginary numbers from USDA. I’ll get to the grains in a bit, but I’ll [...]

And Now We Move On

2022-03-31T14:39:08-05:00March 31st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I’m going to start with some outside agriculture market news today, most notably the Biden Administration announcing the release of 1 million barrels of oil per day for the next 6 months from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. [...]

Dollar Down Daze

2022-03-30T14:56:44-05:00March 30th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The US dollar index was hammered for a second consecutive session, falling as much as 0.73 over the course of the day. For the record, the greenback lost 1.05 during Tuesday’s meltdown. It’s possible the dollar was weaker [...]

Could’ve Been Worse

2022-03-29T14:30:41-05:00March 29th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There were times over the course of Tuesday’s session it would’ve been easy to turn off the quote screen and just walk away. It looked like another commodity-wide meltdown was occurring, due in part to chatter ceasefire talks [...]

Monday Monday

2022-03-28T14:29:00-05:00March 28th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If ever a Monday felt like a Monday, it was this Monday. Some of what we thought would happen didn’t, and what was thought wouldn’t happen did. Or something like that. Did I think the energy complex would [...]

Stronger and Weaker

2022-03-25T14:43:06-05:00March 25th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If nothing else, Friday can be called an interesting day, a day when markets both strengthened and weakened at the same time. Take crude oil for example. It was down early in the day before rallying on news [...]

Big Swings

2022-03-24T14:32:21-05:00March 24th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Thursday saw a number of markets make big swings, led once again by moves in the energy sector. Brent crude dropped as much as $4.18 (3.5%) while WTI crude fell $3.86 (3.3%). What’s interesting is all the pressure [...]

High Energy

2022-03-23T14:31:28-05:00March 23rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was another high energy day in the commodity complex Wednesday led by – you guessed it - the energy sector. Brent crude climbed above $122, up $6.81 (5.9%), while WTI crude took a look back above $115 [...]

All About Energy

2022-03-22T14:11:36-05:00March 22nd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday’s session was dominated by the energy sector, with our old friend the Widow Maker (natural gas) leading the way. The spot-month contract gained as much as 30.4 cents (6.2%) and was within sight of its session high [...]

Easy as Pie

2022-03-21T14:37:49-05:00March 21st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Yes I know, Pi(e) Day was a week ago today, but market activity in general made me think of the phrase “easy as pie” as I was putting together this Commentary. That, and a piece of pie sounds [...]

And Now, the End is Near

2022-03-18T14:26:04-05:00March 18th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: With roughly a half-hour remaining in the week for financial markets, many other sectors have already turned out the lights and headed for happy hour. It was another big week across the board, filled with enough plot twists [...]

Turnaround Thursday

2022-03-17T14:32:24-05:00March 17th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Nearly everything I wrote Wednesday afternoon can be turned upside down and applied to Thursday’s session. What was down is up, and what was up went up some more. Regarding the former, spot-month crude oil lost roughly $9.50 [...]

One of Those Days

2022-03-16T14:24:59-05:00March 16th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As I’ve said before, there are days when it’s just best to turn off the quote screen and find something to do outside. Wednesday was one of those days. There were some big news items, led by Ukrainian [...]

That Was Entertaining

2022-03-15T14:59:17-05:00March 15th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I was prepared to title this Ides of March edition of Afternoon Commentary “Goodbye Ruby Tuesday”, but by late morning many of the markets that struggled overnight were no longer ruby, or in the red. Some continued to [...]

The Last Reads of March

2022-03-14T14:36:53-05:00March 14th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If Monday is any indication, it’s going to be another busy week for markets. There was some early excitement over the possibility of progress between Ukraine and Russia, and while these headlines were swallowed up by more horror [...]

“It Just Doesn’t Stop”

2022-03-10T14:32:11-06:00March 10th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Late in the day Thursday I sent a message to someone in the investment community that read, “Another crazy day.” His response was straight to the point, “It just doesn’t stop.” I don’t envy him, trying to keep [...]

Some Surprise Along the Way

2022-03-07T15:00:43-06:00March 7th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A quick check of the markets Monday afternoon leaves us with a few surprises, or at least there were some that surprised me a bit. First among these would be live cattle, with the April contract closing $2.125 [...]

Wild

2022-03-04T14:49:25-06:00March 4th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Shortly before Friday’s close a good friend sent me a one-word message, “Wild”. In fact, I could sum up Friday’s session using just that one word, sending us all out to the local watering hold early. So if [...]

Midweek Madness

2022-03-02T14:07:45-06:00March 2nd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I could be like most everyone else in the industry and make up a lot of reasons “why” for Wednesday’s manic behavior in a number of markets, but instead I’m going to tell you “I don’t know.” I’ll [...]

Spring is in the Air

2022-03-01T14:33:00-06:00March 1st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: This being the first day of meteorological spring we can certainly say, “Spring is in the air”. And a look at the commodity sector we can add, “So were most markets”. Remember the “calm” days of this past [...]

Winter is Over

2022-02-28T15:20:44-06:00February 28th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As we close the book on meteorological winter markets are telling us it is going to be a wild, wild spring. Of course the big news continues to be the situation in Ukraine, and the tentacles reaching out [...]

Where Do I Begin

2022-02-25T14:51:02-06:00February 25th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Where do I begin this discussion of all that happened in markets Friday? How about with US stock indexes? The Nasdaq was up 1.2% late in the day while the S&P 500 had added 2.0% and the DJIA [...]

Another Time

2022-02-24T14:04:40-06:00February 24th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The last few years have created a number of memories that will not be forgotten, oddly enough with a common thread. The last time I felt like this as I sat down and tried to write Afternoon Commentary [...]

Back for More

2022-02-23T15:43:51-06:00February 23rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets came back for more of what they’d been having Wednesday, most notably Chicago (SRW) wheat, soybeans, and palladium. I’ll discuss grain and oilseeds in a bit, so let’s turn or attention to the palladium [...]

Twosday Afternoon

2022-02-22T14:35:29-06:00February 22nd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Despite all that’s going on, I couldn’t let the day get away without mentioning it was 2-22-22. And if some want to add, “Deuces were wild”, they wouldn’t be wrong. Tuesday’s session was best represented by crude oil. [...]

And So it Goes

2022-02-21T14:42:38-06:00February 21st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: To no one’s surprise, the situation in Ukraine deteriorated as Monday wore on, culminating with talk that Russia’s President Putin has already told French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz “he intends to sign a decree ‘soon’ to [...]

Three Days and a Condor

2022-02-18T15:17:03-06:00February 18th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I haven’t talked to my friends in the brokerage industry if they were doing many short condor spreads[i], but it would make sense if they were heading into the US 3-day holiday weekend. When markets open again Monday [...]

Another Old Acquaintance

2022-02-17T14:38:13-06:00February 17th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As one old acquaintance of the US – Russia – continues to make headlines, another one stepped into the spotlight the last 24 hours. According to a CNBC story, “talks to resurrect a nuclear deal with Iran entered [...]

Back at It

2022-02-16T14:28:27-06:00February 16th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Buyers were back at it in the commodity complex Wednesday, a day that started with renewed concerns over the Russia/Ukraine situation and never changed course as the session rolled along. Natural gas rocketed higher again with the spot-month [...]

More of the Same

2022-02-15T14:43:29-06:00February 15th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The theme of the day held through the close for most markets, with an hour and a half remaining for US stocks. Early Tuesday, Russia said it had pulled some of its troops back from the Ukraine border, [...]

Back and Forth

2022-02-14T15:47:39-06:00February 14th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Monday was notable for its wide market fluctuations, due in large part to the ebb and flow of Ukraine/Russia headlines. To be honest, I’ve lost track of what all happened though I recall early in the day the [...]

Life in a Vacuum

2022-02-10T14:12:19-06:00February 10th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If you’ve ever been curious what I meant when I talked about vacuum trade, Thursday is a great example. The idea is markets continue to extend existing trends, often dramatically, blowing through all available buy orders (in an [...]

A Couple of Standouts

2022-02-07T14:27:01-06:00February 7th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was an interesting start to the week, with the trades that jump out at me first the May-July futures spreads for both corn and soybeans (more on these in a bit). We also saw the energy complex [...]

An Interesting Close

2022-02-04T14:30:06-06:00February 4th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was quite a day Friday, a fitting end to what has been a busy week. I’ll talk about it in more detail shortly, but the first thing that jumped out at me was the close in futures [...]

A Difficult Day

2022-02-03T14:27:09-06:00February 3rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Connecting the dots of all that happened Thursday is difficult. It was one of those days if you looked away or started on another project and came back to check on how markets were moving, you likely wouldn’t [...]

Substantial

2022-02-02T14:46:32-06:00February 2nd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A good friend sent me a message today that read “Substantial.” That was the entire message. The thing is, I understood exactly what he meant. Markets across the board were making substantial moves. Trade volume in many of [...]

Say Hello to February

2022-02-01T14:55:24-06:00February 1st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Whether you consider Tuesday just the first of the month or the first day of the Lunar New Year, many markets made big moves on February 1. On the plus side, the oilseed sector stole the show once [...]

Say Goodbye to January

2022-01-31T14:42:48-06:00January 31st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: And just like that, January 2022 is over, at least for the most part. My son Ben sent me a message Monday afternoon that simply read, “Really impressive move in euro”, and he’s right. The euro came storming [...]

What a Week

2022-01-28T14:10:24-06:00January 28th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: This was quite a week. Five trading days that proved, above anything else, fundamentals still rule the roost in commodities. Of course when I talk about fundamentals I mean the real version, meaning those that track what basis [...]

A Lot to Think About

2022-01-27T14:34:48-06:00January 27th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Thursday was one of those days when you have to take a step back and think about what markets are trying to say. Starting with the US dollar, the index rocketed to a high of 97.29, its highest [...]

Ole´, Oily, Oily, Oily

2022-01-26T14:47:01-06:00January 26th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A look at Wednesday’s closing markets and I can’t help but imagine a raucous football (soccer) crowd singing the ubiquitous chant/song “Ole´, Ole´, Ole´, Ole´”, though in this version it comes across as “Ole´, Oily, Oily, Oily”. If [...]

What’d I Miss?

2022-01-25T14:48:12-06:00January 25th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I borrowed the title for this Afternoon Commentary from a song in Lin-Manuel Miranda’s Tony Award winning musical “Hamilton”. The song opens the second half of the play and introduces Thomas Jefferson, played by the incomparable Daveed Diggs [...]

Trading Places

2022-01-21T15:03:26-06:00January 21st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The most notable feature of Friday’s session was how some markets traded places from Thursday, most notably corn and soybeans (more on this in a bit). One thing that didn’t change was the meltdown in US stock indexes [...]

A Long Day

2022-01-20T14:29:53-06:00January 20th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Was it just me, or did Thursday seem like a long day? I’ve been thinking it was closing time for a couple of hours, so now that the bells are ringing across the land it’s a bit anti-climactic. [...]

The Play’s the Thing

2022-01-19T14:14:51-06:00January 19th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As I mentioned in this space Tuesday, the stage was set for quite a production Wednesday, and as the day unfolded we were reminded of Hamlet’s comment, “The play’s the thing.” Markets didn’t disappoint, at least not those [...]

The Stage is Set

2022-01-18T14:22:10-06:00January 18th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets posted impressive moves Tuesday, setting the stage for what could be an explosive week this week. The key is the big selloff in US stock market indexes with the Dow down 1.2%, the S&P [...]

Shaken, Not Stirred

2022-01-14T14:10:09-06:00January 14th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As we sit back and contemplate Friday’s market activity, slowly sipping our after-hours cocktail of choice, what are the key takeaways from the day’s session? First and foremost, commercial buyers were active in nearly every commodity sector heading [...]

A Bad Day to Be an Oilseed

2022-01-13T14:59:48-06:00January 13th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A lot of commodity markets closed lower Thursday, but other than natural gas (more on the famed Widow Maker in a bit) the hardest hit were oilseed markets. Canola was down 2.1%, soybeans dropped 1.6%, bean meal lost [...]

Out of the Way

2022-01-12T15:18:56-06:00January 12th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Now that the January round of USDA hubbub is out of the way, we can turn our attention back to things that really matter. The US dollar index blew through its previous 4-week low of 95.57 and key [...]

Interesting Day

2022-01-11T14:17:35-06:00January 11th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday afternoon found the talking heads of financial television doing an about-face from Monday, blathering on and on about how markets liked what Chairman Powell had to say at his confirmation hearing. However, he basically repeated what he [...]

From Boom to a One Day Bust

2022-01-10T14:59:32-06:00January 10th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s always interesting how things work out. This past weekend, the cover of the most recent weekly Barron’s magazine was emblazoned with the title, “The Commodities Boom”. I know how magazines work, having written for the in-house one [...]

Closing Time

2022-01-07T14:45:55-06:00January 7th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As the “old” (1998) song from Semisonic told us, “Closing time, open all the doors and let you out into the world...” Yes, the final bell of the week is set to ring when US stock markets come [...]

Sense and Senselessness

2022-01-06T14:26:39-06:00January 6th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Every afternoon, I look at the markets and wonder how I’m going to explain what happened. Some days the process is easy. Other days, like today, the initial running of the traps seems to bolster the case of [...]

Taking a Breather

2022-01-05T14:42:53-06:00January 5th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Some markets took a breather mid-week, not overly surprising given moves seen to open the new year. One of these was King Corn, with an interesting game possibly building in this key grain and oilseed sector market. On [...]

A Big Day

2022-01-04T14:45:56-06:00January 4th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There were a lot of big moves made Tuesday as traders continue to flex their new-found muscles in 2022. And given how markets closed, or were in position to close, this coming Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders reports [...]

For Auld Lang Syne

2021-12-31T14:26:00-06:00December 31st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The 2021 trading year has come to an end, and as a good friend said in a message, “What a year it was.” Rather than look back, after all we are talking about futures, I’ll recap the year [...]

Interesting Day

2021-12-29T15:13:02-06:00December 29th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I received a message late in the day that read simply, “Interesting day”, and frankly that’s about the only way to describe Wednesday’s market activity. I’ll give it this, there was plenty of movement with the poster-child being [...]

When Selling Comes

2021-12-28T14:43:22-06:00December 28th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There are no absolutes in markets, but the closest thing is the idea markets don’t go one direction forever. And when sellers come back to a market that is way overloaded to the buy side, sometimes we are [...]

A Lot of Energy

2021-12-27T14:06:57-06:00December 27th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There was a lot of energy built up in the, well, energy sector over the 3-day holiday weekend. And while it took a little while to start rolling uphill Monday, once it gained momentum it became a runaway [...]

Break Out the Eggnog

2021-12-23T15:49:30-06:00December 23rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Put on your best holiday sweater and break out the eggnog for the 3-day weekend has arrived. But before we heard the closing bell ring Thursday, meaning another angel presumably got its wings (though I’m hard-pressed to think [...]

A Big Day

2021-12-21T14:41:09-06:00December 21st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If someone would’ve asked me early this morning if I thought we’d see the type of bullish day across the board in the commodity complex that materialized Tuesday, I would’ve said no. Nonetheless, here we are looking at [...]

It’s a Start

2021-12-20T15:02:13-06:00December 20th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Some markets were quiet to start this two-week holiday period while others showed a lot of movement. In the latter category we find both crude oil and natural gas, the former losing as much as $4.82 before rallying [...]

That Friday Feeling

2021-12-17T14:36:00-06:00December 17th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: My guess is the eggnog, spiked or otherwise, has already started flowing in brokerage houses, grain merchandising businesses, and downstairs analysis offices across the US as another holiday-season week has come to an end. There’s nothing like that [...]

The Holiday Season

2021-12-16T14:55:18-06:00December 16th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was another big day for most markets Thursday, something that becomes more commonplace as trade volume dwindles between US Thanksgiving Day in late November and the end of the year. However, this time frame includes the beginning [...]

The Fed and Meal

2021-12-15T14:24:52-06:00December 15th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There were two pieces of news everyone was talking about Wednesday, the latest announcements from the US Federal Reserve and the November NOPA crush figure. Regarding the latter, reportedly crush came in at 179.5 mb of soybeans, down [...]

Ring the Meal Bell

2021-12-14T14:51:32-06:00December 14th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: In global oilseed markets, Tuesday was a day of haves and have nots. Soybean meal led the way higher as the January contract gained as much as $19.60 (per ton) before closing $14.80 higher and gaining $1.50 on [...]

A Bad Day for Bean Bulls

2021-12-13T14:47:06-06:00December 13th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: While I'll discuss the soybean market in more detail in a bit, a quick summary to Monday’s action is it was a bad day to be a market bull. There are a number of possible reasons why bubbling [...]

CPI CPR

2021-12-10T14:38:04-06:00December 10th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Early Friday morning saw the release of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the monthly figure up 0.8% as compared to one average pre-report guess of 0.7%. For the year the change grew to 6.8%, reportedly the [...]

A Mixed Bag

2021-12-09T14:40:21-06:00December 9th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Thursday afternoon is interesting with moves seen in one market or sector offset by an opposite move in another. For example, crude oil was down as much as $1.80 (2.5%) as Omicron headlines continue to flip-flop almost every [...]

Over the Hump

2021-12-08T14:30:27-06:00December 8th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: We’ve made it to Wednesday afternoon, meaning most of this week’s Hump Day is behind us and it’s now a downhill slide into the weekend. Speaking of slides, the US dollar index couldn’t hold its early gain as [...]

Tuesday Headlines

2021-12-07T14:43:14-06:00December 7th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday was a day filled with headlines, and these headlines helped drive a number of markets to big moves. One of these was crude oil where the spot-month contract gained as much as $3.54 (5.1%) as it continues [...]

Big Monday

2021-12-06T14:36:18-06:00December 6th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets made big moves Monday, including a recovery in US stocks as the DJIA gained 2.1%, the S&P 500 added 1.5%, and Nasdaq rallied 1.2%. The US dollar index was also in the green, slowly [...]

Into the Weekend

2021-12-03T14:01:05-06:00December 3rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As the dust began to settle on this week, most markets didn’t feel the need to make a clear statement. There were some wild swings, most notably in crude oil where the spot-month contract rallied as much as [...]

Green Lights are Working Now

2021-12-02T14:30:27-06:00December 2nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It took a while, but the green lights in the markets seem to have finally warmed up and are working now. Nearly every market of every sector was flashing green Thursday afternoon, with some glowing brilliantly. I want [...]

Not the Same

2021-12-01T14:12:58-06:00December 1st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As the news broke Wednesday afternoon of the first case of Omicron in the United States, in California, I was immediately reminded of another first US case 18 years ago. That time around it was BSE found in [...]

Well, the Red Lights Work

2021-11-29T14:43:09-06:00November 29th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: In the US it is time for folks to start over-decorating anything and everything that doesn’t move for the next holiday in the traditional colors of red and green. Judging by Monday’s close, at least the red lights [...]

Visions of Cranberries

2021-11-24T14:26:55-06:00November 24th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: We’ve reached another US Thanksgiving holiday, meaning visions of cranberries (or pie, or turkey, etc.) are dancing in the heads of most. But before closing the lights out for a couple days, many markets posted a lights out [...]

Another Big Day

2021-11-23T14:48:56-06:00November 23rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday brought with it more big moves by a number of markets. One of the more interesting was crude oil, where the spot-month contract initially lost $1.45 before gaining as much as $2.11. However, just like Monday commercial [...]

Don’t Be Crude

2021-11-19T14:57:18-06:00November 19th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I know the Elvis Presley (and Cheap Trick) hit song is “Don’t Be Cruel”, but in my mind I can hear it as “Don’t Be Crude” heading home Friday afternoon. Particularly after crude oil was cruel to market [...]

Turnaround Thursday

2021-11-18T14:43:15-06:00November 18th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: What do we make of Thursday’s session? I’m asking because I really don’t know. It’s possible we can’t read much of anything into how markets moved today, citing nothing but exhaustion and the upcoming holiday season. Still, daily [...]

An Interesting Day

2021-11-17T14:25:15-06:00November 17th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If Wednesday was any indication of what the rest of the fall and winter is going to be like, there won’t be much hibernating going on. As I mentioned in Morning Commentary, the US dollar index raced through [...]

Dollar Keeps a Rollin’

2021-11-16T14:31:40-06:00November 16th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The story of the day was once again the US dollar index as it gained as much as 0.37 during Tuesday’s session, reaching a high of 95.89. This is now a stone’s throw away from the next long-term [...]

More Fireworks

2021-11-15T14:09:35-06:00November 15th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I think I’m going to stop saying things along the line, “Trade should be quieter today…”. Similar to what we saw last Friday, the commodity complex was active again Monday with the biggest moves being made by familiar [...]

Friday Fireworks

2021-11-12T14:18:29-06:00November 12th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: So much for my idea Friday could be a less active day, as I mentioned in Morning Commentary. While trade volume was down in most markets, volatility was ramped up in certain sectors. One of these was oilseeds [...]

On the Rise

2021-11-11T14:28:20-06:00November 11th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The US dollar index stole the show Thursday as it pushed to a new high of 95.18, its highest mark since posting a monthly high of 97.62 during July 2020. The difference between then and now, though, is [...]

The Kings of Swing

2021-11-10T14:33:58-06:00November 10th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: (Feel free to have the Dire Straits “Sultans of Swing" playing as background music for today’s Afternoon Commentary). The Three Kings of Commodities were big swingers Wednesday, with all setting the tone for the rest of the markets [...]

Reality Bites

2021-11-09T14:54:58-06:00November 9th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There are days when all one can say “Well, that was interesting”, and then move on. Such was the case Tuesday, with markets flying every which way. Starting with the energy complex, crude oil gained as much as [...]

A Strange Day Indeed

2021-11-08T15:15:22-06:00November 8th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There was a lot going on in the commodity complex Monday, with the old adage “if you don’t like the markets, wait five minutes and they will be different” playing out across a number of sectors. Two of [...]

Only the Beginning

2021-11-05T14:31:16-05:00November 5th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: This first week of November was a short long week, a full five business days that seemed to go by in a flash. Maybe it was because the week was filled with markets posting new contract highs and [...]

Make That a Double

2021-11-04T14:02:45-05:00November 4th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If Wednesday’s close had you looking for a good stiff drink, then Thursday’s settlement may have you downing a double. As I talked about in Morning Commentary, the US dollar index posted a delayed reaction to the latest [...]

Oof…

2021-11-03T14:45:07-05:00November 3rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday was a good day to shut the quote screens off and find something better to do outside. For the most part, as there were some bright spots, most notably out in the Barn. Here we saw strong [...]

Give and Take

2021-11-02T14:15:38-05:00November 2nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Some will use the cliché “Turnaround Tuesday” to describe today’s action, and maybe they’re right. This time. But I’m going to say we saw some markets give back part of what they gained Monday, while we watched others [...]

A Month in a Day

2021-11-01T14:17:02-05:00November 1st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s hard to make the argument markets were driven by a sugar rush the day after Halloween given most of the trade is done by computers these days. But a number of markets posted what looked to be [...]

Thriller

2021-10-29T14:28:31-05:00October 29th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Michael Jackson’s “Thriller” would serve as good background music for Friday’s Afternoon Commentary, not just because it’s the last trading day before All Hallow’s Eve but also due to how many markets were heart-stopping over the course of [...]

From 4A to 6

2021-10-28T14:55:20-05:00October 28th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There was a lot going on in the commodity complex Thursday, the day filled by markets making big moves. Much of it had to do with the collapse of the US dollar index as the greenback extended its [...]

The Weight of Oil

2021-10-27T14:48:45-05:00October 27th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Back on Monday I talked about in this space how every market associated with the word “oil” rocketed higher. Fast forward 48 hours and the situation has reversed, with the oily markets now mostly sliding lower. The exception [...]

Run Over

2021-10-26T14:35:35-05:00October 26th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There were a lot of markets making big moves Tuesday, with many the same lineup we’ve talked about countless times. Strong commercial buying emerged in crude oil, enough to push the spot-month contract to a high of $84.88. [...]

What a Week

2021-10-22T14:38:50-05:00October 22nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: What a week it was, with big moves seen almost across the board. And I say “almost” because I haven’t checked in on every market imaginable, but every market I can think of seemed to be hyperactive this [...]

Turnaround Thursday

2021-10-21T14:46:02-05:00October 21st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I’ve long said there are days when its best to just turn off the quote screens and find something better to do. Thursday was one of those days as a number of markets completely erased Wednesday’s moves, and [...]

Big Moves Were Made

2021-10-20T14:56:19-05:00October 20th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As I mentioned in Wednesday’s Morning Commentary, a number of markets were primed to make big moves today and the session didn’t disappoint. Starting with the US dollar index, the green back fell from its early small gain [...]

Off and Running

2021-10-18T15:16:19-05:00October 18th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The week is officially off and running with big moves seen once again in a number of markets. And what would a Monday be without talking about natural gas? Here we see the market gained downside momentum over [...]

Halfway to Winter

2021-10-15T14:24:02-05:00October 15th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Though it is hard to believe, we are already midway through meteorological autumn. This means we are halfway to winter, meteorologically speaking, a thought made real with this week’s reports of 27 inches of snow in Deadwood, South [...]

Could Be a Fun Friday

2021-10-14T14:44:26-05:00October 14th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Given what we saw in a number of markets Thursday, Friday promises to be quite a day. The US dollar index was able to rally off its initial low of 93.75, down 0.26 for the day, moving back [...]

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