Weather Test

2021-06-22T15:07:11-05:00June 22nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: When I get to the individual Commentary segments for corn, soybeans, and wheat today I’m going to give you a little test. With that in mind, I’ll save my opening comments regarding the grain and oilseed sector until [...]

A Strange Day

2021-06-21T14:51:10-05:00June 21st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The best word to describe Monday’s session is “strange”. Going back through the overnight session, it looked like the grain and oilseed complex was set for a meltdown. Then, most of the morning saw markets find renewed buying [...]

Green Screen

2021-06-04T14:10:11-05:00June 4th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: it’s always interesting the difference 24 hours can make. Recall from Thursday at this time I was talking about how not a single contract in the grain and oilseed complex was in the green, the screen awash in [...]

No Green to be Seen

2021-06-03T14:26:43-05:00June 3rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I’ll give this to the grain and oilseed complex Thursday, there was not a green number to be seen at the close. The closest contract, outside of some far deferred issues, was new-crop November rice closing unchanged on [...]

Overcooked Beef

2021-06-02T14:33:13-05:00June 2nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: To some, there is no culinary crime more heinous than overcooking beef. In my years of travel, I had the opportunity to dine with folks who ate a lot of steak, usually ordering it in the medium to [...]

Sum Sum Summertime

2021-06-01T14:39:57-05:00June 1st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If Tuesday’s markets are any indication, this summer is going to be hot! But then again, that goes without saying because summer is supposed to be hot. And that’s where I got lost on the strong rally in [...]

Close the Book

2021-05-28T15:13:29-05:00May 28th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: We can now close the book on the spring 2021 season, for when we are back together again next Tuesday it will be the first day of meteorological summer. Books will be written about everything that has happened [...]

Quite a Day

2021-05-26T14:09:33-05:00May 26th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday was the kind of day when if you didn’t like the way a market looked, turn the quote screen off and come back an hour later and it will have change completely. There were several big moves, [...]

It Got Worse

2021-05-25T14:35:47-05:00May 25th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Remember yesterday when I quoted the line from “Young Frankenstein” (Could be worse…Could be raining.)? Well, it got worse Tuesday as corn fell apart completely. I’ll be changing my Weekly Column schedule a bit to talk about today’s [...]

Could Be Worse…

2021-05-24T14:53:40-05:00May 24th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: …Could be raining. Those of you who have been with me over the years will recall this is one of my favorite lines from one of my favorite movies, Mel Brooks’ “Young Frankenstein”. In the scene the young [...]

A Big Day for Some

2021-05-21T14:01:46-05:00May 21st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: After strong double-digit moves were posted by corn and soybeans overnight, both markets fizzled and sputtered over the course of Friday’s session. But just because two of the stars of the commodity sector called it an early week [...]

No Royal Flush Thursday

2021-05-20T14:21:25-05:00May 20th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The likelihood of all three Kings of Commodities closing lower Thursday was washed away midmorning when Dec corn hit a vacuum and quickly jumped to its session high (for further discussion, see Thursday afternoon’s Quick Takes, “This is [...]

The Wilhelmi Element

2021-05-19T15:39:02-05:00May 19th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I’m posting Afternoon Commentary a bit later than usual Wednesday because I wanted to see how US stock indexes closed out the day. Near the 1:30pm (CT) mark, markets looked like they might completely erase what had large [...]

Some Turned, Some Didn’t

2021-05-18T14:55:26-05:00May 18th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As most Tuesday’s go, this one wasn’t overly intriguing, though we did see some markets change directions over the course of the day. Most notable was the energy complex where an in initial rally couldn’t be sustained, leading [...]

Everything in Moderation

2021-05-17T14:38:06-05:00May 17th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Sure, there were some big moves posted in the commodity sector Monday, most notably old-crop July canola rallying $45 (5.2%), natural gas jumping 15 cents (5.1%), and lumber falling its daily limit $63 (4.5%). And other markets had [...]

Watch the Weather

2021-05-14T15:47:27-05:00May 14th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Friday’s Afternoon Commentary is a little late because I was a guest analyst on Feedstuffs The Locker Room online market panel discussion. The last question my friend and host Mike Pearson asked was, “What should producers be watching [...]

Happy Hour

2021-05-13T15:08:19-05:00May 13th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The phrase “happy hour” can be interpreted a number of ways. At the end of a good day, getting together with friends and associates to down a few cocktails is certainly reason to be “happy”. On the other [...]

24 Hours Later

2021-05-11T15:28:34-05:00May 11th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: And just like that, it’s like Bloody Monday never happened. Was it Turnaround Tuesday activity? Not exactly, as new-crop December corn gained at most 9 cents of its opening 27-cent selloff back before closing only 2 cents higher [...]

Bloody Monday

2021-05-10T14:20:59-05:00May 10th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Over the years I’ve had the opportunity to work with folks from all over the world including England, New Zealand, Australia, etc. I learned to appreciate the word “bloody” as an adverb, not in the US gore and [...]

One Brief Moment

2021-05-07T14:23:45-05:00May 7th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The US dollar index never recovered from Friday morning’s underwhelming April jobs report, with the US economy creating a mere 266,000 jobs during the month as compared to the pre-report guess of 1 million. This dropped the greenback [...]

Just Another Day

2021-05-06T15:56:53-05:00May 6th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As strange as it sounds, the 20-cent rallies in corn and soybeans post Thursday did make it just another day, not that much different than any of the others we’ve seen since last August. New-crop December corn was [...]

A Line in the Sand

2021-05-04T14:49:09-05:00May 4th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If we drew a line in the sand to separate the commodity markets between those that moved more than 1% (up or down) Tuesday from the others, the group on the “less than” side would have no trouble [...]

Quite a Day

2021-05-03T14:45:33-05:00May 3rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If nothing else, Monday was an interesting start to the week and month. We saw the US dollar index get pummeled, sparking a rally in the euro, Canadian dollar, and Brazilian real. This also provided support to commodities [...]

An Interesting Close

2021-04-29T14:56:25-05:00April 29th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: This has been a weird week. I don’t know how else to describe it. The two shining examples Thursday were corn and soybeans, and I’ll go into more detail in their individual segments. The US dollar index was [...]

Commercial Free

2021-04-28T15:12:50-05:00April 28th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As I ran the traps of all the different market sectors Wednesday afternoon, the one thing that stood out to me was that almost all of the pressure came from the noncommercial side. This is interesting given the [...]

The Wilhelmi Element

2021-04-23T14:16:03-05:00April 23rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Those who have been with me for a while know I have 7 Market Rules that help me make sense of things, but there are another 40-some theories, ideas, and points that I’ve developed over the years to [...]

A Day of Days

2021-04-22T14:38:45-05:00April 22nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s quite possible we witnessed the breaking point in many markets Thursday as the runaway train that is the grain and oilseed complex gained even more speed. The ripple effect was a meltdown in the livestock sector, most [...]

Cold Temps, Hot Markets

2021-04-21T14:56:19-05:00April 21st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The grain and oilseed complex continued to boil over Wednesday with corn and soybean oil leading the way. All three wheat markets were also higher, due in large part to cold temperatures across the US Plains and Midwest. [...]

Another Big Day

2021-04-20T14:55:14-05:00April 20th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets made big moves Tuesday, with the most surprising being lumber. Recall from Monday’s Commentary when I mentioned because of its limit up close ($32 per 1,000 board feet) the futures market was facing expanded [...]

Role Reversal

2021-04-19T14:51:04-05:00April 19th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Early Monday morning, old-crop corn led the grain and oilseed complex higher. However, by the time Monday’s closing bell rang the same old-crop corn market had taken a back seat to new-crop corn and both soybean markets. More [...]

Some Surprises Along the Way

2021-04-15T14:38:51-05:00April 15th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Looking at the markets Thursday afternoon, two stand out as not what I would’ve expected to see at the close: Old-crop corn and lean hogs. Starting with the latter, contracts closed the daily limit $3 down from May [...]

Big Moves Abound

2021-04-14T14:39:22-05:00April 14th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Volatility seems to be picking up across the commodity sector as a number of markets posted big moves again Wednesday. Leading the way was the energy complex where WTI crude oil gained as much as $3.26 (5.4%) while [...]

Looking Weak to Start the Week

2021-04-12T15:03:00-05:00April 12th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector was awash in red ink Monday afternoon with every sector showing at least some crimson. The energy complex was the most bullish, largely by default, with crude oil posting a modest $0.25 rally and natural [...]

Liftoff

2021-04-08T15:05:15-05:00April 8th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector saw a number of markets make big moves Thursday, with King Corn easily leading the way. I’ll go into more detail in its individual commentary segment but suffice it to say the market was lifted [...]

A Peculiar Start to the Week

2021-04-05T14:54:29-05:00April 5th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Monday’s markets were peculiar, in that there didn’t seem to be a common thread linking the sectors. Often when we see the US dollar index reverse course and move lower, like it did Monday, commodities in general tend [...]

Play Ball!

2021-04-01T14:36:04-05:00April 1st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The 2021 Major League Baseball season got underway Thursday afternoon, though the games initially took a back seat to what we were watching in markets. There was a lot of movement the day before a 3-day holiday weekend [...]

The Red “C”

2021-03-30T15:05:20-05:00March 30th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector looked like it was dunked in the Red Sea Tuesday with nearly every market in all sectors closing lower. One of the exceptions was lumber, which remained red hot as the May contract posted a [...]

Another Mixed Monday

2021-03-29T14:46:28-05:00March 29th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There was no consensus in the commodity sector Monday as some markets posted big rallies, some showed large selloffs, others made wide swings in both directions, and a few did little to nothing. The most bullish sector was [...]

A Fitting End to the Week

2021-03-26T14:42:03-05:00March 26th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As the sun gets ready to set on another week we can look back and say, “Wow, that was interesting.” And with that in mind, Friday was the perfect cliffhanger ending as it left plenty of unanswered questions [...]

Not So Green Day

2021-03-25T15:20:04-05:00March 25th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Sometimes there are days like Thursday when the commodity sector just tanks. On such days one can often point to the US dollar, and indeed the greenback was stronger, putting pressure on not only commodities by other global [...]

More Ups than Downs

2021-03-24T14:42:42-05:00March 24th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday was an interesting day, highlighted by another round of markets making big moves. In the energy complex it was a case of recovery from Tuesday’s selloff with Brent crude up $3.30 (5.4%) and WTI rallying $3.10 (also [...]

Quite a Day

2021-03-23T14:20:22-05:00March 23rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday was quite a day as a number of markets made large moves, some in more than one direction. The starting point has to be the US dollar index as the greenback followed Monday’s lackluster session with a [...]

Boiling Oil

2021-03-22T14:06:18-05:00March 22nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Two of the hottest markets as this week got under way could be found in the oilseed complex: Soybean Oil and Canola. The latter gained as much as $22.20 over the course of the day before closing $19.70 [...]

Throwaway Thursday

2021-03-19T14:03:25-05:00March 19th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Way back when I used to give presentations on market related things, one of the more amusing parts was the nicknames for the various days of the week. You are familiar with more often talked about Frantic Friday [...]

Not Just Another Day

2021-03-18T14:53:01-05:00March 18th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Given the lack of excitement during the overnight session it seems fitting Thursday was filled with fireworks. Consider it the markets’ version of yin and yang, with little to no activity offset by volatile moves across the board. [...]

And Corn(ed) Beef it Was

2021-03-17T14:28:34-05:00March 17th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Recall from today’s Top o’ the Mornin’ Commentary when I mentioned the two key markets could be corn and live cattle. Both lived up to their respective potential, though the live cattle market left me scratching my head. [...]

Featured Meat

2021-03-16T15:35:53-05:00March 16th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: When all was said and done, and the dust of the day had settled for most of the markets, the feature (at least to me) was the livestock sector. Lean hogs screamed higher on strong commercial buying from [...]

Sign of the Times

2021-03-15T15:48:37-05:00March 15th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As you recall from Morning Commentary, I was interested in seeing how agricultural commodities would behave Monday given CME’S increase in speculative position limits. While I’ll go into more detail individually, the bottom line is corn, soybeans, and [...]

Strange Days Indeed

2021-03-12T15:44:20-06:00March 12th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If you were one of those who took a look at the grain and oilseed markets early, was disgusted, turned off the screen and went outside to find something better to do, nobody will think the worse of [...]

As Bullish as Hogs in Cotton

2021-03-11T14:32:10-06:00March 11th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Thursday was an interesting day with the spotlight burning brightest on two seemingly unrelated markets: Lean hogs and cotton. Recall from earlier this week when the cotton market dropped its daily limit of 4.0 cents. Fast forward to [...]

Selling Enthusiasm

2021-03-10T14:18:37-06:00March 10th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The grain and oilseed complex spent the better part of Hump Day watching selling enthusiasm grow, so much so that corn and soybean contracts could clearly see session lows at the close. Activity was more moderate in wheat, [...]

Cotton Hit Hard

2021-03-09T15:05:49-06:00March 9th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets made big moves Tuesday, but none outdistanced old-crop cotton. Both the May and July issues closed limit (4.00 cents) down, with new-crop December not far behind with a 3.94-cent selloff. As for the new-crop [...]

When All Was Said and Done

2021-03-08T14:47:30-06:00March 8th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Early Monday it looked like some markets might have big days, particularly to the upside, but when all was said and done there wasn’t much to get excited about. In markets other than grain and oilseeds the biggest [...]

Out Like a Lion

2021-03-05T14:25:18-06:00March 5th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If the month of March came in like a lamb, weatherwise, markets in general went out the first week like a lion. Gains were seen almost across the board, with crude oil (up 3.5%) and oats (3.6%) leading [...]

Making a Statement

2021-03-04T14:31:16-06:00March 4th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary:  Thursday’s highlights included a couple of market moving statements. First, an early statement from OPEC+ that production cuts would remain in place through April sent crude oil markets skyrocketing. The international Brent market gained as much as 5.7% [...]

Wednesday’s Silver Lining

2021-03-03T14:20:22-06:00March 3rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary:  As closing bells were ringing across the various market landscapes, the best word to describe the day’s activity was “Meh”. Yes, some markets made big moves, most notably crude oil to the upside (2.5%) and cotton to the [...]

A Good Day to Do Something Else

2021-02-25T14:32:59-06:00February 25th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Over the decades I’ve often joked there are days to turn off the quote screens and find something else to do. Particularly if it’s nice outside, and according to a post I saw about Kansas weather, temperatures have [...]

Spring is in the Air

2021-02-24T14:30:19-06:00February 24th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Somewhere the birds are chirping, the bees are buzzing, and baseball gloves are popping; all the familiar sounds of spring we look forward to every year. Markets, almost regardless of sector, are in the swing of spring with [...]

More Big Moves

2021-02-23T14:22:45-06:00February 23rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday was another day of big moves, with the only difference being which markets were most active. Where the energy complex ruled Monday’s session, the oilseed complex was the star Tuesday. Here we saw soybeans rally as much [...]

The Rally Continues

2021-02-22T14:32:12-06:00February 22nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was another big day in the commodity sector, led by an impressive 4% rally in crude oil. Here we see the spot-month contract hitting a high of $61.84, quickly looking to erase last week’s bearish reversal on [...]

Time for the Weekend

2021-02-19T14:24:07-06:00February 19th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Friday saw a lot of market movement though little changed when all was said and done. The US dollar index was lower, but never threatened to extend its selloff, keeping a lid on a potential rally in metals. [...]

Mixed Markets Midweek

2021-02-17T14:47:32-06:00February 17th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday’s session saw mixed results with some sectors posting solid gains (energies), some solid losses (livestock), and most everything else mixed. Let’s start with the US dollar index that posted a solid rally, following up Tuesday’s short-term bullish [...]

Red Hot Markets

2021-02-16T14:33:07-06:00February 16th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector was interesting again Tuesday as most markets stayed red hot despite the stronger US dollar index. Starting with the greenback, the daily chart is showing a bullish key reversal indicating the short-term trend could be [...]

Another Step Closer to Spring

2021-02-12T16:13:47-06:00February 12th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: We can close the book on another week, the second week of February, meaning there are only two weeks remaining until March 1 and the start of meteorological spring. Regardless of what Punxsutawney Phil said earlier this month. [...]

In the End

2021-02-11T14:25:21-06:00February 11th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: When all is said and done, the only thing for certain is that it’s over. The grain and oilseed complex was interesting in the respect that soybeans had outshone corn for much of Thursday’s session, right up until [...]

Bingo

2021-02-10T14:42:20-06:00February 10th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A common question Wednesday was, “What happened to corn and soybeans?” As always, there are countless reasons “why” markets do what they do, but a couple of simple ideas is that Tuesday’s USDA report did not fill the [...]

Richard Marx Was Right

2021-02-09T13:51:31-06:00February 9th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The best way to think about Tuesday’s round of USDA monthly Supply and Demand reports is to remember what Richard Marx told us, “It don’t mean nothin’”. I’ll go into each of the grain markets individually, but the [...]

No Bears Anywhere

2021-02-08T14:14:55-06:00February 8th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Commodity market bears are in hibernation, allowing bulls to run free across the sector. Monday was a great example, for no matter where you looked you could see a market making a big move. Energies? Distillates rallied 1.8% [...]

A Fitting End to Groundhog Week

2021-02-05T14:28:50-06:00February 5th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A look across the commodity sector landscape shows wide price swings galore, with cotton again in the spotlight. After rallying more than 3.0 cents Thursday the nearby March contract fell 1.67 cents at Friday’s close on renewed commercial [...]

Another Wild Day

2021-02-04T15:09:26-06:00February 4th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets posted wide trading ranges again Thursday, with cotton stealing the spotlight. Here we see the March issue closed 3.29 cents higher, gaining 0.13 on May and 0.28 on July, indicating strong support from the [...]

Boom Time

2021-02-03T14:58:47-06:00February 3rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday was quite a day with big moves posted by a number of market sectors. Crude oil led the way with the spot-month contract up 1.7% on a round of solid buying from both noncommercial and commercial traders. [...]

Winter All the Way

2021-02-02T15:38:11-06:00February 2nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As you all know by now, Punxsutawney Phil somehow defied the odds of a cloudy, snowy early February morning in central Pennsylvania and saw his shadow, projecting six more weeks of winter. Though I give the enterprise the [...]

The Anticipation Builds

2021-02-01T14:13:05-06:00February 1st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: With Monday’s session winding down, the anticipation toward Tuesday’s weather revelation by Punxsutawney continues to build. Before we get there, though, some markets were dealing with the present weather, most notably the Nor’easter plowing across, well, the US [...]

A Wild and Wooly Week

2021-01-29T16:42:27-06:00January 29th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s difficult to quickly summarize all we saw this week, with market sectors across the board going haywire. As I mentioned in a conversation with my friend Neils Christensen of Kitco News, what we see in markets now [...]

One For the Record Books

2021-01-28T15:03:58-06:00January 28th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Thursday was quite a day, regardless of the market sector one looked at. Let’s start in US stock markets where rules were changed on the fly to help hedge funds caught in a short-squeeze by retail traders, sending [...]

Microwaved Tuna

2021-01-27T14:51:27-06:00January 27th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Though I haven’t worked in an office environment with other people for roughly 2.5 years, one of the unwritten rules is you don’t microwave leftover fish for lunch. Why? Because the entire building will know someone has crossed [...]

More Big Moves

2021-01-26T15:52:38-06:00January 26th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday saw a number of markets post another round of big moves, with King Corn leading the way. Though I’ll talk about it in more detail individually, a quick summary is the market raced 4% higher on solid [...]

Just Another Manic Monday

2021-01-25T15:06:23-06:00January 25th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As expected given last week’s Frantic Friday that led into a South American weather market weekend, Monday proved to be Manic indeed. Markets were flying all over the place, most posting wide trading ranges, some with support from [...]

Big Moves

2021-01-22T14:33:18-06:00January 22nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I think I speak for everyone when I say, “Thank goodness Friday is over.” If one is bullish livestock, they were likely tickled pink with what happened over the course of the session. March feeders closed the limit [...]

Friday Could Be Frantic

2021-01-21T15:00:54-06:00January 21st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Back in the day, at my previous position, we held a series of Marketing University events. One of the “courses” was my take on some of the situations that play out from time to time. Part of this [...]

Recovery

2021-01-20T14:44:37-06:00January 20th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The morning was as dark and bleak as the day that proceeded it, but as the sun worked its way across the sky the general attitude seemed to lift. By the end of the day, it was hard [...]

What a Day…

2021-01-19T15:23:43-06:00January 19th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: That was the entirety of the message a good friend sent to me as the grain and oilseed complex came to a close Tuesday. That was a great way of summing up the day’s activity, and I’ll get [...]

The Last Week

2021-01-15T14:36:01-06:00January 15th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: What a week. So many markets showing so much volatility, all during what is usually a relatively quiet time of year. As Friday moved toward its close the US dollar index was at its highest level in almost [...]

“Resistance is Futile”

2021-01-14T14:42:41-06:00January 14th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A friend from Kansas suggested this Star Trek line for the title of a piece of Commentary someday, and given what we saw Thursday, there is no better time than the present. The grain and oilseed sector exploded [...]

As Expected

2021-01-13T14:51:59-06:00January 13th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday’s session was nowhere near as explosive as Tuesday, but that was to be expected given some of the market moves from 24 hours ago. One exception was US treasuries as the US 30-year T-bond gained more than [...]

Far from Normal

2021-01-12T15:07:27-06:00January 12th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Another USDA January data dump has come and gone, though the results were far from normal. Those of us who watch real market fundamentals were not surprised the grain and oilseed complex continued to move higher, though I’m [...]

A Wild Start to the Week

2021-01-11T15:03:52-06:00January 11th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The second half of my latest weekly column, posted over the weekend just passed, now seems outdated. Recall I talked about how the Three Kings of Commodities were all looking to be overthrown by the new triumvirate of [...]

Turn the Machines Off

2021-01-08T14:42:20-06:00January 8th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s finally Friday afternoon, and only US stock markets are working toward their weekly close. It was an incredible week, filled with sights and sounds long thought unimaginable. Through it all the markets trundled on, with those same [...]

Warning Signs

2021-01-07T14:36:37-06:00January 7th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was another interesting day Thursday, though in a much different way than what we saw Wednesday. As an update: I have not seen anything definite as far as a change in the Oval Office at the US [...]

Anarchy

2021-01-06T15:04:12-06:00January 6th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: My apologies for this Afternoon Commentary being late, but I had to check on some reporter friends of mine who cover agriculture from Washington, D.C. I’m glad to report they are all well and extended those hopes to [...]

Stampede

2021-01-05T14:24:07-06:00January 5th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It didn’t matter where you looked Tuesday, you were likely to see a market racing higher. A glance at the energy complex shows crude oil up almost 5% with the spot-month contract cracking $50 for the first time [...]

Adieu to 2020

2020-12-31T14:26:53-06:00December 31st, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: From a market point of view, 2020 is nearing its end with only US stock markets still open. As I said in my most recent Weekly Column, this was a year that will not soon be forgotten, and [...]

Wheat’s Turn to Lead

2020-12-30T14:21:44-06:00December 30th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: In the race up Price Mountain, this Wheat (Whiskey) Wednesday saw the wheat complex lead the way in the grain and oilseed complex, fittingly enough. As it did Tuesday, corn posted another strong rally but still came in [...]

What a Day

2020-12-29T14:27:26-06:00December 29th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Incredible. That’s really the only word I can come up with when I look at how markets are closing Tuesday afternoon. Incredible. January soybeans (nearing delivery) were up 40 cents. March corn was a couple ticks short of [...]

King Corn’s Muscle

2020-12-28T14:30:16-06:00December 28th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There were a number of things I could lead with in discussing Monday’s session, but the most impressive was the strength of King Corn as the market kept its head while all about it were losing theirs. I’ll [...]

Mele Kalikimaka

2020-12-24T13:37:27-06:00December 24th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As markets come to a close Thursday, thoughts have turned to holiday things. And with temperatures across most of the US and Canada well below freezing, those same thoughts take us to spending the holiday in Hawaii (“From [...]

Big Green Commodity Machine

2020-12-23T15:07:51-06:00December 23rd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A quick check of commodities Wednesday afternoon returned a familiar picture: The sector continues to power onward and upward like a “tremendous machine” (still one of my favorite sports memories). February crude oil gained more than $1 (2.3%) [...]

Sensing a Change

2020-12-22T16:41:41-06:00December 22nd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Maybe it’s just the time of the year, but I’m starting to sense a disturbance in the bullish force that has been the commodity sector of late. The US dollar index was actually able to rally and hold [...]

More Ivy than Holly

2020-12-18T14:38:44-06:00December 18th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A week before Christmas and most commodities closed ivy green, with only a few showing holly red. The strongest mover was the oilseed complex where the leader was actually soybean meal with a gain of 1.9%, followed by [...]

More Questions Than Answers

2020-12-16T14:16:59-06:00December 16th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: With closing bells ringing across the market landscape Wednesday afternoon, we are left with more questions than answers. Has the US dollar index finally bottomed, a result of the Federal Reserve’s decision not to increase its treasury buying [...]

Beans Go Big

2020-12-15T14:26:35-06:00December 15th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector was higher Tuesday, possibly supported in part by another day of selling in the US dollar index. Much of this activity continues to be tied to ideas the US Federal Reserve will take an aggressive [...]

That Time of Year

2020-12-14T14:00:14-06:00December 14th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As I’ve mentioned in a couple pieces of Commentary and Analysis, we are in the quietest quarter of the marketing year, at least for the grain and oilseed complex, with little news emerging to spark trading interest. That [...]

Closing Time

2020-12-11T14:45:22-06:00December 11th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Another week has come to an end, mostly, with only US stock markets making their way toward closing time. There was a lot of movement in a number of sectors, though trade volume could generally be classified as [...]

A Lot of Energy

2020-12-10T14:24:55-06:00December 10th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The energy complex stole the spotlight Thursday as the spot-month crude oil contract rallied as much as $2.22 (deuces were obviously wild), or about 5% at its session high. Distillates (heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) had [...]

A Big Little Day

2020-12-09T14:13:58-06:00December 9th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets posted big moves Wednesday on what looked to be little trade volume. Cotton, for example, added 1.5% with the March issue registering less than 15,000 contracts changing hands. The May issue didn’t even reach [...]

Well Mixed

2020-12-08T14:19:34-06:00December 8th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector was mixed at Tuesday’s close with the big winner being orange juice. What does this mean? For starters, your Screwdriver might cost a little more, but if I show my age a bit the bigger [...]

Just a Swingin’

2020-12-07T14:37:31-06:00December 7th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A lot of markets spent the day swinging back and forth across unchanged including soybeans, wheat, cotton, and metals. Others were swinging, but had a tough time breaking the plane of unchanged. This group consisted of energies, the [...]

Closing Bell

2020-12-04T14:33:56-06:00December 4th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Another week is in the books with Friday’s session giving us some things to ponder over the weekend. First, the US dollar Index was able to claw its way back into the green late in the day, though [...]

Recovery Mode

2020-12-03T15:07:07-06:00December 3rd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets traded lower early Thursday, only to shrug off pressure to storm higher at the close. Even those that closed lower, like live cattle, rallied well off session lows as the session came to an [...]

Another Mixed Bag of Markets

2020-12-02T14:22:19-06:00December 2nd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was another interesting day as most markets bounced back and forth across unchanged. The biggest loser looks to be the oilseed complex where soybeans and canola dropped 0.7% while bean meal slipped 1.2%. On the other hand, [...]

A Wintry Mix

2020-12-01T14:22:13-06:00December 1st, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The first day of meteorological winter gave us mixed results with some markets posting strong rallies and some strong selloffs. Others, like soybeans, gave us a little bit of both. The two markets sectors grabbing my attention most [...]

Fall-ing Out

2020-11-30T14:21:13-06:00November 30th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Well folks, we made it through another season, meteorologically speaking. Monday’s close marks the end of fall and a look across the commodity sector finds markets are mostly lower. Livestock was an outlier, mostly, with both feeder cattle [...]

Fundamentally Strong

2020-11-24T15:13:21-06:00November 24th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector, in general, roared back to life Tuesday after some markets saw heavy selling overnight. One of the most impressive set of markets was the wheat complex where contracts spent the overnight session in the red-light [...]

Quite a Way to Start the Week

2020-11-23T14:47:46-06:00November 23rd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The livestock sector roared higher again Monday with all three markets posting strong triple-digit gains. Commercial activity was mixed, not just in the sector but in individual markets. Note December live cattle lost $0.35 to February, while February [...]

A Bacon Burger with Coffee

2020-11-20T13:57:51-06:00November 20th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: For the second consecutive day, the livestock sector was easily the most interesting in the commodity complex. Both cattle markets were under pressure for most of Friday’s session, before a solid round of noncommercial buying lifted live to [...]

Livestock Stampede

2020-11-19T15:54:27-06:00November 19th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The livestock sector stole the spotlight Thursday, but not in the way market bulls would’ve preferred. Strong selling was seen in all three markets, and if we want to include Class III milk the count goes up to [...]

An Interesting Day

2020-11-18T14:44:13-06:00November 18th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I thought long and hard about how to best describe Wednesday’s market action, and the word I kept coming back to was “interesting”. Leading the way had to be the oilseed complex where soybeans didn’t finish as strong [...]

Kicked By Cattle

2020-11-17T14:36:40-06:00November 17th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As many of you know, I have posted a number of charts and studies pointing out the bearishness of February live cattle. The two most recent examples were a price distribution chart Monday (though it was partially bullish) [...]

Strong Start at the End

2020-11-16T15:42:34-06:00November 16th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: At the end of the day, commodities had posted a strong start to the week. Coffee led the way with a 5.9% gain as the Dec contract rocketed to a high of 116.20 while strong commercial buying was [...]

It Was a Thursday

2020-11-12T14:14:06-06:00November 12th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Thursday was just a day, one best described with “it could’ve been better, or it could’ve been worse”. That was true whether one was bullish or bearish. The US dollar index traded either side of unchanged while US [...]

An Interesting Day

2020-11-11T15:10:42-06:00November 11th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Markets were indeed interesting in many sectors, with a variety of reversals seen on daily charts. One of the hosts on CNBC even mentioned “reversals of reversals” as the day played out. The bottom line is many markets [...]

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