Wipe Out

2022-09-23T15:31:15-05:00September 23rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I completely understand if the well-known drum solo at the beginning of the song “Wipe Out” is playing in your head as you read this. That was the best phrase I could think of to describe Friday’s markets, [...]

Off the Boil

2022-08-03T14:47:48-05:00August 3rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: For the most part, markets seemed to be taken off the boil Wednesday as the tension between the US and China over Taiwan died down ever so slightly. Gold closed lower, just as it did Tuesday, an indicator [...]

Much Ado

2022-08-02T14:51:47-05:00August 2nd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A good friend made a solid point on Twitter early Tuesday, “When four Republican Senators visited Taiwan 8 months ago, it was no big deal.” He was absolutely right. In fact, I went back and looked up an [...]

Usual and Not

2022-07-26T14:38:50-05:00July 26th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday was an interesting day, possibly the understatement of the week. And again, it’s only Tuesday. Let’s start with the strength of the US dollar index, with the greenback gaining as much as 0.85 ahead of Wednesday’s expected [...]

Typical Tuesday

2022-07-19T14:16:44-05:00July 19th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Breaking the week down by characteristics we have Fridays and Mondays as the bookends for WWW (Wrap-around Weather-market Weekend) Activity, Thursdays that are generally Throwaway Days as traders gear up for Friday, Wednesdays are the first day of [...]

A Mixed Bag

2022-07-14T14:14:43-05:00July 14th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Late in Thursday’s session, there was a little for everyone though nobody will go away completely satisfied. US dollar bulls were likely thrilled with the early rally to a new high of 109.29, bringing the September 2002 high [...]

Let’s Get Real

2022-06-30T14:09:16-05:00June 30th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As usual, a certain segment of the media was focused on the imaginary Thursday rather than turning the spotlight on what’s real. In this case I’m talking about agriculture, and the generally irrelevant June Grain Stocks and Acreage [...]

Therapy Session

2022-06-23T14:13:24-05:00June 23rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Let’s approach Thursday’s Afternoon Commentary as a therapy session for commodity bullish anonymous. We’re all friends here, so we can let out our frustrations following what was another blood red day across the board. Before we get rolling, [...]

Wipeout

2022-06-21T14:09:51-05:00June 21st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The first official day of summer saw the grain and oilseed sector wipeout while other sectors continued to fly. I’ll get to the grains in a bit, but let’s start with energies where crude oil was up about [...]

CWS Time

2022-06-17T14:27:54-05:00June 17th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It is indeed time for the CWS. Not only is NCAA baseball’s College World Series under way at this hour here in Omaha, but the Corn-Wheat-Soybean markets were rolling as well heading into the US 3-day holiday weekend. [...]

As Expected

2022-06-15T14:55:16-05:00June 15th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced a 0.75% interest rate hike Wednesday, raising the Fed Funds rate to the 1.5% to 1.75% range. In other news, the sun is hot and water is wet. The point is the [...]

Another $1 Day

2022-06-09T14:21:11-05:00June 9th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I forgot to mention specifically in this space Wednesday that the spot-month natural gas contract posted a trading range of roughly $1.25. With this in mind, Thursday’s range of just over $1.00 seems paltry by comparison. Yet here [...]

Turn Out the Lights

2022-06-03T15:03:28-05:00June 3rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As Dandy Don Meredith used to sing on Monday Night Football when the game was out of reach, “Turn out the lights, the party’s over…” We’ve finally reached Friday afternoon and markets are pretty much as they were [...]

Go Green

2022-06-02T14:38:41-05:00June 2nd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I know the bulk of the industry will be shouting about the rally in the commodity complex being tied to the weaker US dollar index, and that might have played a role in Thursday’s action. A minor role, [...]

In the Good Old Summertime

2022-06-01T14:27:15-05:00June 1st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If nothing else, trading for the first day of meteorological summer has come to an end. Mostly, as we wait for a few financial markets to close. There weren’t a lot of surprises as the US dollar index [...]

The Second Friday of the Week

2022-05-27T14:21:30-05:00May 27th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: While I’ll still contend Thursday’s market activity would’ve made for a fitting Friday, Friday’s fun was also a good way to head into the US 3-day holiday weekend. The only difference was some markets took the place of [...]

Wouldn’t It Be Something?

2022-05-25T14:23:06-05:00May 25th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was another interesting day in the commodity complex, highlighed by the close in a number of old-crop ag markets. July cotton came back from a loss of about 0.8 cent to close 3.2 cents higher, showing signs [...]

The Lure of Imaginary Numbers

2022-05-24T14:50:02-05:00May 24th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There are pluses and minuses to not being in the newsroom anymore, or no longer being associated with most other “analysts, commentators, or reporters” in ag media. On the minus side, I don’t always catch breaking news like [...]

It’s Only Words

2022-05-23T14:30:19-05:00May 23rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Shortly after I posted Monday’s Morning Commentary a friend called to ask about my thoughts regarding President Biden’s statement on China. My friend runs an international business, so his main concern was my Charts of the Day looking [...]

A Cheaper Dollar

2022-05-19T14:51:54-05:00May 19th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Sometimes things sneak up on you at the end of a quiet day. I hadn’t been tracking the US dollar index that closely Thursday, finally checking in on it as other markets started to close. All I can [...]

A Good Day For…

2022-05-18T14:34:06-05:00May 18th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday was a good day for planting corn or moving cattle, for mowing the yard or cleaning out a boot pit. It was a good day for doing nearly anything but watching markets unless one was long US [...]

Typical Tuesday

2022-05-17T15:05:12-05:00May 17th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There wasn’t much we could consider extraordinary about Tuesday’s markets, except for maybe the continued rally in lean hogs. Here we see the more active July contract (though I’ve longed considered it as useful as a hip pocket [...]

A Week in a Day

2022-05-16T14:21:19-05:00May 16th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I think we can close the markets for the week on the idea most did a week’s worth of work in one day. I’m talking mostly about the grain and oilseed sector that saw, among other things, a [...]

A Wild Wednesday

2022-05-11T14:37:53-05:00May 11th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I’ve mentioned in the past the commodity complex tends to see wild activity on Wednesday’s as noncommercial traders jump back into markets. This occurs after data for the next round of CFTC Commitments of Traders reports is pulled [...]

Something for Everyone

2022-05-10T14:33:15-05:00May 10th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I’m not quite sure what to read into Tuesday’s session. Some of the markets that closed higher did so on light trade volume (e.g corn, soybeans) while some markets closing lower did so with quite a flourish (e.g. [...]

Alone Again, Naturally

2022-05-06T14:20:13-05:00May 6th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If you need a feel-good, end of the week, head to the bar on the way home song, Gilbert O’Sullivan’s classic “Alone Again (Naturally)” is NOT the one you want. Nevertheless, it’s a great song, and the first [...]

Delayed Reaction

2022-05-05T14:51:25-05:00May 5th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As has become routine, markets waited a day to react to the latest rate hike announcement by the US Federal Reserve. After I posted Afternoon Commentary Wednesday, US stock indexes staged a powerful yet strange rally. It certainly [...]

A Lot of Energy

2022-05-04T14:28:59-05:00May 4th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The US Federal Open Market Committee announced a 50-basis point increase in the Fed-fund rate. Reportedly this was the largest rate move since 2000, raising it to the vague area of 0.75% to 1.0%, in an “aggressive” attempt [...]

Anticipation

2022-05-03T15:13:26-05:00May 3rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity complex in general was under pressure again Tuesday, giving all indication traders are looking ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee statement regarding interest rates. The anticipation is a big hike is coming, the degree a [...]

That Was Interesting

2022-04-25T14:39:29-05:00April 25th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If nothing else, Monday was an interesting start to the week. Of course, the key talking point on financial television, regardless of which one you landed on, was Elon Musk’s bid to buy Twitter. The French Presidential election [...]

Au Revoir

2022-04-22T15:01:12-05:00April 22nd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I had to look this one up, but the French phrase “au revoir” can be interpreted as “until we see each other again”. It fits well this Friday afternoon because when next we meet the French will have [...]

Cancel Culture

2022-04-21T15:39:43-05:00April 21st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s entirely possible Thursday’s selloff in the grain and oilseed complex had nothing to do with what looked to be early signs of old-crop export sales cancellations in the latest weekly export sales and shipments update. After all, [...]

The Phrase That Pays

2022-04-19T15:06:23-05:00April 19th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: We all know the old cliché “Turnaround Tuesday”, but this week it would’ve paid off for those betting varying degrees of Monday’s moves would be erased. Energies were again in the spotlight with natural gas losing as much [...]

Holy Buckets!

2022-04-18T14:20:59-05:00April 18th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A good friend from central Nebraska sent me a two-word message midday Monday, but those two words said all that was needed to describe markets. “Holy buckets!”, was the entirety of the message. Knowing my friend, I knew [...]

An Early End

2022-04-14T14:27:28-05:00April 14th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Due to Friday’s holiday, Thursday close brings about the end of the week. One didn’t have to look far for signs markets are closed tomorrow as traders seemed to be sparse in nearly every market sector. This allowed [...]

When the Rolling Ends

2022-04-13T15:14:59-05:00April 13th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was as if a switch was flipped Wednesday. Shortly before 13:00 (CT) a good friend shot me a message that read, “Look at that (May-July corn spread) chart!!!” He was right. Early in the day I saw [...]

Bold Moves

2022-04-12T14:30:53-05:00April 12th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday was one of those days when markets in nearly every sector made bold moves. Of course we have to start with energies where Brent crude rallied as much as 7.2% while WTI jumped 7.5%, taking the latter [...]

Break Out the Erasers

2022-04-11T14:18:10-05:00April 11th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Remember those gains many commodity markets posted last Friday? Well, traders broke out the erasers Monday resulting in some large selloffs across a number of different sectors. Let’s start with energies where spot-month WTI crude oil fell as [...]

Stampeding Into the Weekend

2022-04-08T14:52:59-05:00April 8th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Commodity complex bulls stampeded into the weekend, almost every market, nearly every contract. One of the outliers was natural gas, oddly enough, after the spot-month contract posted a new 13-year high of $6.538 early in the day. For [...]

Opening Day

2022-04-07T14:24:03-05:00April 7th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Not only is Thursday Opening Day for Major League Baseball in the US, it could also be considered Opening Day for the April round of the Goldman Roll. The latter was obvious in a number of markets, particularly [...]

Low Volume, High Volatility

2022-04-06T14:25:18-05:00April 6th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets made big moves Wednesday, though many of them were showing low trade volume late in the day. In terms of market moves the spotlight was on energies once again, with crude oil falling as [...]

Big Move Monday

2022-04-04T15:08:09-05:00April 4th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If I were to describe Monday’s market activity with one phrase, it would be “big moves”. There were a lot of potential reasons ‘why’, setting aside Newsom’s Market Rule #5[i] for the time being, including the horrific images [...]

What a Week it Was

2022-04-01T14:31:51-05:00April 1st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Markets look a lot different heading into this weekend than they did last Friday, and all it took (for the most part) was some imaginary numbers from USDA. I’ll get to the grains in a bit, but I’ll [...]

And Now We Move On

2022-03-31T14:39:08-05:00March 31st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I’m going to start with some outside agriculture market news today, most notably the Biden Administration announcing the release of 1 million barrels of oil per day for the next 6 months from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. [...]

Dollar Down Daze

2022-03-30T14:56:44-05:00March 30th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The US dollar index was hammered for a second consecutive session, falling as much as 0.73 over the course of the day. For the record, the greenback lost 1.05 during Tuesday’s meltdown. It’s possible the dollar was weaker [...]

Could’ve Been Worse

2022-03-29T14:30:41-05:00March 29th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There were times over the course of Tuesday’s session it would’ve been easy to turn off the quote screen and just walk away. It looked like another commodity-wide meltdown was occurring, due in part to chatter ceasefire talks [...]

Monday Monday

2022-03-28T14:29:00-05:00March 28th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If ever a Monday felt like a Monday, it was this Monday. Some of what we thought would happen didn’t, and what was thought wouldn’t happen did. Or something like that. Did I think the energy complex would [...]

Stronger and Weaker

2022-03-25T14:43:06-05:00March 25th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If nothing else, Friday can be called an interesting day, a day when markets both strengthened and weakened at the same time. Take crude oil for example. It was down early in the day before rallying on news [...]

Big Swings

2022-03-24T14:32:21-05:00March 24th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Thursday saw a number of markets make big swings, led once again by moves in the energy sector. Brent crude dropped as much as $4.18 (3.5%) while WTI crude fell $3.86 (3.3%). What’s interesting is all the pressure [...]

High Energy

2022-03-23T14:31:28-05:00March 23rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was another high energy day in the commodity complex Wednesday led by – you guessed it - the energy sector. Brent crude climbed above $122, up $6.81 (5.9%), while WTI crude took a look back above $115 [...]

All About Energy

2022-03-22T14:11:36-05:00March 22nd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday’s session was dominated by the energy sector, with our old friend the Widow Maker (natural gas) leading the way. The spot-month contract gained as much as 30.4 cents (6.2%) and was within sight of its session high [...]

Easy as Pie

2022-03-21T14:37:49-05:00March 21st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Yes I know, Pi(e) Day was a week ago today, but market activity in general made me think of the phrase “easy as pie” as I was putting together this Commentary. That, and a piece of pie sounds [...]

And Now, the End is Near

2022-03-18T14:26:04-05:00March 18th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: With roughly a half-hour remaining in the week for financial markets, many other sectors have already turned out the lights and headed for happy hour. It was another big week across the board, filled with enough plot twists [...]

Turnaround Thursday

2022-03-17T14:32:24-05:00March 17th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Nearly everything I wrote Wednesday afternoon can be turned upside down and applied to Thursday’s session. What was down is up, and what was up went up some more. Regarding the former, spot-month crude oil lost roughly $9.50 [...]

One of Those Days

2022-03-16T14:24:59-05:00March 16th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As I’ve said before, there are days when it’s just best to turn off the quote screen and find something to do outside. Wednesday was one of those days. There were some big news items, led by Ukrainian [...]

That Was Entertaining

2022-03-15T14:59:17-05:00March 15th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I was prepared to title this Ides of March edition of Afternoon Commentary “Goodbye Ruby Tuesday”, but by late morning many of the markets that struggled overnight were no longer ruby, or in the red. Some continued to [...]

The Last Reads of March

2022-03-14T14:36:53-05:00March 14th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If Monday is any indication, it’s going to be another busy week for markets. There was some early excitement over the possibility of progress between Ukraine and Russia, and while these headlines were swallowed up by more horror [...]

“It Just Doesn’t Stop”

2022-03-10T14:32:11-06:00March 10th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Late in the day Thursday I sent a message to someone in the investment community that read, “Another crazy day.” His response was straight to the point, “It just doesn’t stop.” I don’t envy him, trying to keep [...]

Some Surprise Along the Way

2022-03-07T15:00:43-06:00March 7th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A quick check of the markets Monday afternoon leaves us with a few surprises, or at least there were some that surprised me a bit. First among these would be live cattle, with the April contract closing $2.125 [...]

Wild

2022-03-04T14:49:25-06:00March 4th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Shortly before Friday’s close a good friend sent me a one-word message, “Wild”. In fact, I could sum up Friday’s session using just that one word, sending us all out to the local watering hold early. So if [...]

Midweek Madness

2022-03-02T14:07:45-06:00March 2nd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I could be like most everyone else in the industry and make up a lot of reasons “why” for Wednesday’s manic behavior in a number of markets, but instead I’m going to tell you “I don’t know.” I’ll [...]

Spring is in the Air

2022-03-01T14:33:00-06:00March 1st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: This being the first day of meteorological spring we can certainly say, “Spring is in the air”. And a look at the commodity sector we can add, “So were most markets”. Remember the “calm” days of this past [...]

Winter is Over

2022-02-28T15:20:44-06:00February 28th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As we close the book on meteorological winter markets are telling us it is going to be a wild, wild spring. Of course the big news continues to be the situation in Ukraine, and the tentacles reaching out [...]

Where Do I Begin

2022-02-25T14:51:02-06:00February 25th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Where do I begin this discussion of all that happened in markets Friday? How about with US stock indexes? The Nasdaq was up 1.2% late in the day while the S&P 500 had added 2.0% and the DJIA [...]

Another Time

2022-02-24T14:04:40-06:00February 24th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The last few years have created a number of memories that will not be forgotten, oddly enough with a common thread. The last time I felt like this as I sat down and tried to write Afternoon Commentary [...]

Back for More

2022-02-23T15:43:51-06:00February 23rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets came back for more of what they’d been having Wednesday, most notably Chicago (SRW) wheat, soybeans, and palladium. I’ll discuss grain and oilseeds in a bit, so let’s turn or attention to the palladium [...]

Twosday Afternoon

2022-02-22T14:35:29-06:00February 22nd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Despite all that’s going on, I couldn’t let the day get away without mentioning it was 2-22-22. And if some want to add, “Deuces were wild”, they wouldn’t be wrong. Tuesday’s session was best represented by crude oil. [...]

And So it Goes

2022-02-21T14:42:38-06:00February 21st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: To no one’s surprise, the situation in Ukraine deteriorated as Monday wore on, culminating with talk that Russia’s President Putin has already told French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz “he intends to sign a decree ‘soon’ to [...]

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