Session Summary: If nothing else, Friday’s session gave us a lot to think about over the weekend. First and foremost was the selloff in the oilseed sector, a subject I’ll be talking about in more detail shortly. The energy sector [...]
Session Summary: Thursday was far from the normal Throwaway session this week as a number of markets made impressive moves. Starting with the US dollar index, the greenback gained as much as 0.59 after a number of bullish economic numbers [...]
Session Summary: Wednesday’s session was filled with spread activity in nearly every corner of the commodity complex. While most of the attention was on the grain and oilseed sector, and rightfully so, interesting moves were also seen in energies, softs, [...]
Session Summary: Tuesday’s can be interesting sessions. Not only is there always potential for Turnaround activity, particularly if like this week there are big moves made on Monday, but it is also the last day of the positioning week for [...]
Session Summary: The Lunar New Year may have begun Saturday night into Sunday, but market fireworks associated with the holiday started Sunday night and lasted through Monday’s close. It wasn’t just oilseeds, though that’s where most of the attention was [...]
Session Summary: It was a mixed day in the commodity complex Thursday, so I turned my attention to three economic indicator markets for something to talk about. Batting leadoff was lumber, with the March contract adding another 0.6% to its [...]
Session Summary: If you are a fan of technical reversal patterns, today is your day. Nearly everywhere you look you’ll see one of the three usual types of reversals (key, spike, or 2-day) and possibly even a 4-day (or week) [...]
Session Summary: A number of markets seemed to be trying to make up for Monday’s holiday session. The US dollar index posted a 0.62 trading range, from up 0.17 to down 0.45, before drifting back to near unchanged late Tuesday [...]
Session Summary: To be honest, I’m not a big fan of the upcoming US 3-day holiday weekend. Not because of politics or social beliefs, but because we just came out of a holiday season littered with 3-day weekends and disjointed [...]
Session Summary: Thursday’s data dump is complete and the arguments, both bullish and bearish, have been made. For most in the industry it is now time to either start over from scratch or recycle ideas talked about for seemingly countless [...]
Session Summary: I titled this piece “A Lot of Energy”, a description of market activity Wednesday as closing bells continue to ring out across the land. This also refers to a session led by the energy sector as all five [...]
Session Summary: I was doing a radio interview shortly after the closing bell rang for the grain and oilseed complex, and my friend on the other end of the headset concluded his opening thoughts with, “It was a strange day.” [...]
Session Summary: I sat at my desk for a while, contemplating how best to summarize Monday’s activity. Some markets were the same as what we saw last Friday, most notably the US dollar index that fell another 0.97 to start [...]
Session Summary: I’ve long said that if you were to put 12 economists in a room and ask them a question, you would get 13 different opinions. I was reminded of this again Friday following the release of the December [...]
Session Summary: Thursday was a busy day with a lot of markets making big moves. Leading the way was the US dollar index as it gained as much as 1.04 points, extending this week’s rally to a high of 105.27. [...]
Session Summary: Rather than a turnaround from Tuesday’s opening salvo, Wednesday brought more of the same, for the most part. The energy sector along with grains and oilseeds fell apart once again, while metals stayed strong. Discussion of markets changing [...]
Session Summary: 2023 got off to quite a start for the commodity complex with every sector sitting in the red late in the day. The closest to closing in the green was metals where platinum was showing a 1% rally [...]
Session Summary: As I started putting today’s Afternoon Commentary together, there was roughly 1.5 hours remaining in the trading day for US stock indexes. Most other markets that I track had reached the end of the week, month, financial quarter, [...]
Session Summary: You can take this a couple different ways, but there is one more day until the end of this week, month, quarter, and year. Those who think time is flying by will see this as “only” one more [...]
Session Summary: Late in Wednesday’s session, Barchart posted its Futures Market Heat Map with the four strongest markets (at the time) being coffee (4.0%), soybean meal (3.2%), soybeans (1.5%) and wheat (1.5%). My natural instinct is to always reply with [...]
Session Summary: Today was an interesting Monday for a Tuesday. Just when it looked like markets were going to take off and fly, a number of them abruptly changed directions. But before we get there, let’s start with the US [...]
Session Summary: “Yo ho, my boys!” said Fezziwig. “No more work tonight. Christmas Eve, Dick. Christmas Ebenezer! Let’s have the shutters up,” cried old Fezziwig, with a sharp clap of his hands, “before a man can say Jack Robinson!” Some [...]
Session Summary: The pattern so far this week has been most markets were lower Monday, followed by rallies both Tuesday and Wednesday, before selling settled back in as Thursday progressed. A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map this [...]
Session Summary: If one were of a bullish nature, Wednesday was their kind of day. A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map this afternoon shows nothing but green, generally, with only the metals sector showing a hint of [...]
Session Summary: This particular Tuesday lived up to the nickname “Turnaround” with nearly all commodity sectors decked out in ivy (green) heading toward the close. The one exception was energies, though here we have to add an asterisk. Recall from [...]
Session Summary: A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map Monday afternoon shows a whole lotta red, or in the spirit of the season, a whole lotta holly. In the commodity complex, every sector was crimson with only a [...]
Session Summary: The most challenging part of this afternoon will be finding enough interesting talking points to fill this Commentary. Most markets traded as if already on holiday, with corn one of the best examples (more on this in a [...]
Session Summary: A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map Thursday afternoon shows a festive holiday mix of red and green. In the sectors category we see energies, financials, and grains all in the green while metals, livestock, and [...]
Session Summary: It still baffles me, all the hullabaloo surrounding normal announcements from the US Federal Reserve. For most of the past two years, members of the Fed have been front-running these announcements to limit the chaos many talking heads [...]
Session Summary: Tuesday was interesting, far from the usual Turnaround variety. The morning started with a lower-than-expected November Consumer Price Index of 0.1%, pushing the year-over-year change to 7.1% as compared to the expected 7.3%. Who was doing the expecting? [...]
Session Summary: The leaking Keystone pipeline in Kansas finally seemed to get the attention of WTI crude oil traders as the spot-month contract rallied as much as $2.97 (4.2%) over the course of Monday’s session. However, I think there was [...]
Session Summary: Late in the session, Barchart tagged me in a social media post showing the latest Futures Market Heat Map. At first glance my thought of markets being comfortably numb Friday seemed to be confirmed. But as I was [...]
Session Summary: I sat and stared at a blank piece of electronic paper for about a half-hour, thinking about how best to describe Thursday’s action. The one word that kept coming to mind – mixed – is benign and doesn’t [...]
Session Summary: Most of the talk within the industry Wednesday had to do with the energy sector. There was a great deal of time devoted to crude oil (both Brent and WTI) and RBOB gasoline falling to new 2022 lows. [...]
Session Summary: Markets are known for their tendency to turnaround on Tuesday, or in other words reverse course from Monday’s activity, but this time around the twist was a number of markets U-turned over the course of Tuesday’s session. In [...]
Session Summary: “Don’t want to be a richer man…”. This line from David Bowie’s song Changes came to mind as I watched markets change direction over the course of Monday’s session. All three Kings of Commodities reversed course with crude [...]
Session Summary: The second day of winter was rough for a number of markets once again, with the energy and grain and oilseeds sectors leading the way down. The US dollar index fell to a low of 104.37 early in [...]
Session Summary: It was a rough first day of meteorological winter for a number of markets Thursday, starting with the US dollar index. The greenback has posted a low of 104.67, down 1.20 for the day, though holding just above [...]
Session Summary: The big news item Wednesday was the US House passing legislation to avert a rail strike in December. As Schoolhouse Rock taught us many decades ago, the legislation then goes to the Senate, where it should pass, and [...]
Session Summary: At different points of Tuesday’s session some markets seemed to be caught in cliché Turnaround Tuesday activity, only to shake off those tendencies and post similar moves to Monday. A case in point: The US dollar index. The [...]
Session Summary: The best way to describe the US dollar index Monday is it was mercurial[i]. Overnight trade saw the greenback post a strong rally, only for it to fall to a loss of as much as 0.74 early Monday. [...]
Session Summary: I don’t know what the title of today’s Afternoon Commentary is supposed to mean, other than we found the giblets from the turkey were left out in a pot on the stove overnight. A look beneath the lid [...]
Session Summary: What can we make of Tuesday’s session for most markets? I think the bottom line is it was clearly the day before the day before the US holiday. Folks seem to have a long weekend on their minds, [...]
Session Summary: Shortly after I posted Morning Commentary Monday, news broke that the large rail union SMART-TD voted to reject the latest labor deal. This takes the US one step closer to a possible strike, at a time when the [...]
Session Summary: I’m not sure how best to describe today’s activity other than to say it was a Friday, and not just any Friday but that leads us into another holiday season next week. A number of markets acted as [...]
Session Summary: Similar to this morning, most sectors in the commodity complex were showing red as Thursday’s session came to a close. Crude oil posted the largest loss with the spot-month Brent contract down $3.00 late while WTI lost as [...]
Session Summary: There were a lot of moving parts to Wednesday’s session, not unusual for the first day of a new positioning week for noncommercial traders. But before I get to that, let’s start with a look at the US [...]
Session Summary: I was set to talk about how a number of markets pulled off a turnaround within Tuesday’s session itself, then plans changed. News broke that Poland had been hit by two Russian missiles, sparking misguided talk World War [...]
Session Summary: There isn’t a good explanation for Monday’s markets except to say things were mixed. Headlines were swirling around like light snowflakes on the wind, but nothing seems to stick. Yes, US President Biden and China’s President Xi had [...]
Session Summary: All eyes were on the Forex again Friday, particularly with the US dollar index still in freefall. The greenback hit a low of 106.28, down 1.80 for the day, and was within a few ticks of that mark [...]
Session Summary: I’m not getting into the political debate today, though I will relate a message from a good friend who said Tuesday’s expected Red Wave turned out to be a Red Puddle. In regard to markets, there most certainly [...]
Session Summary: All I can say is if there is anyone out there day-trading natural gas I hope you have friends, family, or neighbors checking on you frequently. The Widow Maker is not good for one’s health, as it dropped [...]
Session Summary: This time I’m not talking about everyone reenergizing over the weekend, but rather how the energy sector led the charge heading into the weekend. Thursday saw an incredible rally by distillates (heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.), [...]
Session Summary: Heating oil stole the show Thursday, at least to the upside, with the spot-month contract gaining 5.3% late in the session. This outdistanced December cotton’s 5.1% rally by a small margin, with both markets supported by solid commercial [...]
Session Summary: Once again, members of the Federal Open Market Committee were out telling the world what to expect with the official announcement this afternoon, a concerted effort to limit market chaos. It’s such a different approach from when the [...]
Session Summary: A number of markets made big moves Tuesday led by a 4.2% rally in cotton and a 9.0% selloff in natural gas. What’s that you ask? Didn’t natural gas rally 11% Monday? Yes, yes it did, meaning Tuesday [...]
Session Summary: As we all learned when we were younger, innocently trick or treating on Halloween Night, sometimes you get peanut butter cups and sometimes you get candy corn. Now as adults, we see similar results looking at markets as [...]
Session Summary: As the curtain comes down on this week, there is only one session remaining before we close the book on October. From a technical point of view there are a lot of long-term trends that could change with [...]
Session Summary: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I’m not an economist, nor do I play one on tv. If I was, though, I would have the theme song from the movie “The Good, The Bad, and [...]
Session Summary: As I watch the collapse of the US dollar index this month, my mind goes back to a series of headlines in early October having to do with China’s plan to sell dollars. Fast forward to yesterday, and [...]
Session Summary: While browsing through the social media site Twitter Tuesday afternoon, a trader posted the theme of the day, “Trading the grain markets is like watching paint dry.” He wasn’t wrong, but I’ll get to the grain and oilseed [...]
Session Summary: I was all set to talk about how the cattle markets stole the show Monday, but then I took another look at the energy sector. Naturally, natural gas was in the spotlight once again as it gained as [...]
Session Summary: Early Friday morning financial television was talking about the US dollar being driven higher by rising Treasury yields. However, both markets reversed course as the day progressed with yields mostly lower late in the day and the US [...]
Session Summary: There wasn’t anything extraordinary about Thursday’s session. Yes, some markets made big moves while others reversed course as the day unfolded, but there wasn’t a single market that took you by the lapels and shook you to your [...]
Session Summary: Wednesday was a strange day, one of those when you sit back at the end and say something along the line of, “Most peculiar…” Let’s start at the beginning, usually a very fine place to start. In the [...]
Session Summary: Most commodity markets were under pressure Tuesday, or in other words The Red Cs. It would be easier to talk about those markets that were able to stay green, led by a strong 4.8% rally in orange juice. [...]
Session Summary: In the end, what was the key takeaway from Monday’s session? First and foremost the US dollar index found renewed selling interest over the course of the day, dropping as much as 1.37 and was still within sight [...]
Session Summary: It seems fitting markets were wild Friday to finish off what has been a volatile week. The US dollar index gained momentum as the day progressed, rallying as much as 0.84 and sitting near its session high late [...]
Session Summary: Normally when we talk about a Turnaround day it has to do with Tuesday activity reversing course from Monday. However, a quick check of the markets Thursday afternoon shows a number of them doing wide swinging U-turns within [...]
Session Summary: In a way, it’s always good to get these days filled with all kinds of government reports out of the way. I know media, both financial and ag, are falling all over themselves to tell the world how [...]
Session Summary: A number of markets adjusted following the big moves posted Monday. This time around the clock, livestock led the way with strong rallies posted by both live cattle and feeder cattle. In live, December rallied as much as [...]
Session Summary: The ag sectors stole the spotlight Monday with big gains posted in grains, cotton, and hogs while both cattle markets, the rest of the softs, and soybean oil all posted solid losses. Cotton stole the show as the [...]
Session Summary: It’s the first weekend of October, time to step away from your quote screens and into a good old-fashioned Oktoberfest biergarten. Who knows, it may be the last one we get if reports coming out of Russia are [...]
Session Summary: About the only way I can think of to describe Thursday’s session is “It was a day”. Was it a normal Throwaway Thursday? Time will tell, but for now a number of markets made big moves that could [...]
Session Summary: I don’t know if the term is correct, but in the game of global chess the US is now on the clock to make the next move. As expected OPEC+, driven by Russia, announced a 2 million barrel [...]
Session Summary: Maybe it was as simple as flipping the calendar page. We can safely say that to this point most markets have not traded lower this financial quarter. Granted the quarter is two days old, but this doesn’t make [...]
Session Summary: I think it’s safe to say some markets were excited about the turn of the calendar page this past weekend. US stock indexes skyrocketed on the first trading day of the month with both the S&P 500 and [...]
Session Summary: The stage was set for a wild day Friday given it was the end of the week, month, and financial quarter, with a little USDA quarterly Grain Stocks tossed in for flavor. I’ll get to the grain and [...]
Session Summary: I think it’s safe to say Thursday’s session for US stock indexes Is clear confirmation Wednesday’s rally was nothing more than a Dead Cat Bounce[i]. If so, then what should we call Thursday’s move to a new low [...]
Session Summary: As I’ve often said, it’s not unusual for volatility to get ramped up on Wednesdays given it’s the first day of the noncommercial positioning week (recall data for the next round of weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders reports [...]
Session Summary: As expected, the S&P 500 followed the lead of the Dow Jones Industrial Average by falling to a new 2022 low Tuesday. The previous mark had been the June low of 3,636.87, with the S&P hitting 3,623.29 after [...]
