Session Summary: A number of markets were red hot to start this first day of meteorological summer, though some of them cooled considerably throughout the session. Not cattle, though, and it doesn’t matter if you read that as live or [...]
Session Summary: If I had to sum up the last day of May, it would be with the idea investment traders simply don’t want to be in commodities. The US dollar index rallied early, gaining as much as 0.53 before [...]
Session Summary: Tuesday was as good an example of Newsom’s Market Rule #5 as we will see. As the session wore on, there were a lot of reasons why for the collapse and or rocket rally seen in most commodity [...]
Session Summary: As we head into the US 3-day holiday weekend, market bulls nearly across the board were stampeding. Ironically enough, the one sector not in the green this afternoon on the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map was Livestock. The [...]
Session Summary: I’ve said this a lot of late, but Thursday was an interesting session. As the US debt-ceiling debate continues, the US dollar index firmed once again. The greenback hit its highest mark, 104.31, since March 17. At the [...]
As Wednesday nears its end, the US is one day closer to its debt-ceiling deadline. Judging by the chatter coming from financial media talking heads, the situation is fraught with unimaginable drama. However, we've seen this show before and I'm [...]
Session Summary: Tuesday’s session was interesting, with most commodity sectors finishing the day mixed. Starting out in the Barn, live cattle and feeder cattle were lower following a light round of commercial selling. This was the second consecutive day of [...]
Session Summary: I had a question come in Monday afternoon that asked simply, “What changed?” I knew what my friend meant, even without the mention of a specific market. A look across the commodity landscape and three markets jumped out [...]
Session Summary: It’s possible a number of markets took their first steps toward completing reversal patterns on their long-term monthly charts Thursday. Maybe. One of the most watched contracts, December corn, was actually able to close higher after falling to [...]
Session Summary: Carpe Diem my friends, which as we learned from the movie “Dead Poets Society” back in 1989 is Latin for (loosely) “Seize the day”. However, a look at Wednesday afternoon’s quote screen, I’m saying it as the letter [...]
Session Summary: Usually I apply Newton’s First Law of Motion to markets[i], but today I’m bringing Sir Isaac’s Third Law into the discussion. If you remember your Physics 101, Newton’s Third Law states that for every action (in nature) there [...]
Session Summary: The commodity complex flexed its collective muscle Monday, with nearly every sector sitting in the green late in the day. A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows all but Financials (US Treasury futures) showing cumulative [...]
Session Summary: With the May round of USDA nonsense out of the way, traders should now turn their attention back to the weather. In the grain and oilseed sector, that means more attention will likely be paid to new-crop markets, [...]
Session Summary: Where this morning’s Futures Market Heat Map from Barchart was leaning toward shades of red, late in the Thursday’s session the same Heat Map shows red ruled the day. The only sector in the green, cumulatively, was financials [...]
Session Summary: Though it is only Wednesday, the days are starting to all look the same. In the not-too-distant past we saw a situation where nearly every market was in the red overnight, just to have green be the dominant [...]
Session Summary: Running through the various market sectors this afternoon shows me Tuesday’s session was one of all or nothing. For every rally there seemed to be another market with an equal selloff, with the big exception being orange juice. [...]
Session Summary: Maybe it’s just me but coming out of the weekend I tend to have a lot of energy. Usually when I sit down to write Morning Commentary thoughts are coming fast and furious. However, by the end of [...]
Session Summary: It’s interesting that as we make our way through the early part of the last month of spring, markets are finally starting to turn green. This week will be remembered for a long list of technical reversal patterns [...]
Session Summary: After watching markets play out Thursday, there is much to think about until we gather again Friday morning. The big question this afternoon is the same one from Thursday morning, what happened in the crude oil market? I’ve [...]
Session Summary: If I were to summarize Wednesday’s session with one word, it would be “vacuum”. A trading vacuum exists when a market (or markets) gets so overdone to one side (bullish or bearish) all orders that drove them to [...]
Session Summary: Staying with today’s theme of Gordon Lightfoot songs, I used “Too Late for Prayin’” from the singer’s 1974 album Sundown. It seems fitting for the day, with nearly every market sector showing a loss of some degree. The [...]
Session Summary: Monday’s session was one of those that makes you sit back and ponder once the closing bell rings. How much can we read into one day? According to the One Day Wisdom (One day does not a trend [...]
Session Summary: With Hump Day behind us, we are now in a waiting game for the end of the month. That’s not to say the next two days won’t be active, as markets can get volatile around month-end, but a [...]
Session Summary: A number of markets made big moves again Tuesday with orange juice leading the way with a gain of 1.9%. In fact, softs were in the spotlight as sugar followed with a 0.7% rally of its own. Platinum [...]
Session Summary: The first day of the last week of the fourth month is now behind us, and it was interesting. A number of markets stood out, starting with the US dollar index as it weakened by as much as [...]
Session Summary: We’ve reached the end of another trading week, and though it was only five days a lot happened. We saw a number of markets rally, then have the bottom fall out as a large-scale wave of noncommercial selling [...]
Session Summary: The commodity complex was showing a lot of red again late Thursday, though not quite to the degree we saw 24 hours ago. This time around the clock we saw a few markets finish in the green led [...]
Session Summary: At first glance, one would think they were wearing a pair of John Conlee’s Rose Colored Glasses when looking at this afternoon’s Barchart Futures Market Heat Map. At the top we see every sector showing some shade of [...]
Session Summary: Today was a classic Turnaround Tuesday, at least in part, though some markets paid no attention to what day of the week it was. Live cattle continue to stampede, and it was no surprise contracts closed higher given [...]
Session Summary: It didn’t take long for traders to get interested in the commodity complex to start the second half of meteorological spring, with big moves seen in most sectors. The US dollar index rallied as 0.65 and was within [...]
Session Summary: It’s hard to believe, but as we close out this week meteorological spring (March through May) is already half over. Fittingly, a number of markets went into halftime this weekend with a lot of momentum. My Friday morning [...]
Session Summary: The first message I received Thursday morning read simply, “Stupid wheat market”. I understood completely. In fact, I’m starting to wonder if we are getting close to applying Newsom’s Rule #4B: A market that can’t go up won’t [...]
Session Summary: As I mentioned on Twitter Wednesday afternoon, this is one of those days when you pour yourself a nice drink (since it’s Wednesday it could be wine, whiskey, or wheat bear), sit back, and study the various markets. [...]
Session Summary: There was a lot going on Tuesday, but all of it took a back seat to what we are seeing in the live cattle market these days. A friend in the cattle industry sent me a message shortly [...]
Session Summary: Monday was the first day of the much-discussed Goldman Roll, and when the dust had settled we could clearly see the effects in some markets while others it was not so clear. Before we dive in, though, let’s [...]
Session Summary: As I mentioned this afternoon on the social media site Twitter, you know it’s quite a day when cattle post a “rip your face off rally”[i] and the market doesn’t even reach the leaderboard of biggest moves for [...]
Session Summary: What stood out to me at Wednesday’s close was the number of markets showing signs of commercial selling. Before I make too much of it, I have to remind myself of the One Day Wisdom (One day does [...]
Session Summary: There was no consistent theme to Tuesday’s session in the commodity complex, starting with the continued weakness of the US dollar index. The old cliché is a weaker dollar leads to buying in commodities, and gold certainly got [...]
Session Summary: As Monday’s go, this one was interesting, and that’s saying something as the first day of the week tends to see a lot happen. The energy sector stayed strong throughout the session, with the exception being natural gas. [...]
Session Summary: As the last day of the week, month, and fiscal quarter nears its end a number of markets have already closed with a big finale. The two commodity complex sectors leading the way were energies and grains, with [...]
Session Summary: When the dust had settled on the fourth day of a busy 5-day trading week, a number of markets had made big moves again. When studying sectors, the commodity complex was led by the hards (metals) and softs [...]
Session Summary: Around midday, a good friend called and asked if I had heard the news about Cargill. He told me he had heard talk the global agricultural giant was pulling of Russia. He went on to say you know [...]
Session Summary: Markets didn’t show the same sort of fireworks Tuesday as they did to open the week, for the most part, though some took the ball and ran. Or in the case of cotton, took the boll and ran. [...]
Session Summary: This morning I talked about how it was a big week ahead. A look at the quote screens late Monday shows we already have one big day behind us. One of the quieter markets was the US dollar [...]
Session Summary: The commodity complex didn’t get enough of St. Patrick’s Day last Friday, so markets in general donned green once again heading into the weekend. For the most part. There were a few killjoys scattered about, most notably a [...]
Session Summary: I apologize if your given-name or surname is included in this group, but Thursday was a tough day for anything named “Oil”. WTI crude oil fell as much as $1.55 (2.2%) and was near its session low late [...]
Session Summary: The US Federal Open Market Committee, lovingly known as the Federal Reserve or the Fed, announced another 25-basis point rate increase Wednesday. This was largely expected, due in part to the Fed continuing to front run its announcements [...]
Session Summary: For as uneventful as the overnight session was, Tuesday made up for it in spades. Though a bit counter-intuitive, I’ll start with the dullest market of them all – the US dollar index. Here we see the greenback [...]
Session Summary: We get to use the cliché of all clichés about twice a year, so let’s blow the dust off it today: Oats knows. What oats know isn’t exactly clear, though the generally accepted end of that statement is [...]
Session Summary: The key takeaway from Friday’s session is investors were nervous heading into the weekend. Late Friday found all three major US stock indexes in the red while the greenback was being pummeled. The US dollar index fell as [...]
Session Summary: I was reminded that Thursday was, on top of everything else, the first day of the 2023 College Basketball Tournament also known as March Madness. Those of you outside the US are likely chuckling in amusement about the [...]
Session Summary: It makes me feel good when one of my friends sends me a message that reads, “The first thing I check when futures close is spreads”, or something along that line. It confirms to me many folks are [...]
Session Summary: The panic and fear that gripped markets Monday seems to have passed given what we see this afternoon. Either that or today was just a normal Turnaround Tuesday/last day of the positioning week for noncommercial trader. The US [...]
Session Summary: Usually when I call the day Manic Monday, it is done so with more than just a little tongue in cheek. This week’s nod to the Bangles classic is different though, as a number of markets went crazy [...]
Session Summary: If you are a fan of markets selling off, Thursday was your day. What made it more interesting is: 1) The talking heads couldn’t blame it on US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell or USDA (though I’m sure many [...]
Session Summary: There was a lot of red ink spilled over the commodity complex at Wednesday’s close, but what I find interesting is the narrative had changed from Tuesday. Recall yesterday nearly every sentence from almost every financial talking head [...]
Session Summary: Am I jumping on the bandwagon that the US Federal Reserve is responsible for everything from male pattern baldness to Tuesday’s general selloff? No. Do I think Chairman Powell’s hawkish testimony to Congress played a part in Tuesday’s [...]
Session Summary: As I’ve talked about before, the general weekly schedule starts off with Manic Monday. Today was no exception as a number of markets made big moves, some in both directions. Take crude oil for example. Early Monday saw [...]
Session Summary: It was a green day for most of the commodity complex with only a handful of markets refusing to play along. The softs sector was lower, in general, though sugar posted a solid 3.0% rally to close out [...]
Session Summary: If we go back to how most week’s play out, Thursdays tend to be Throwaway days meaning markets were already busy with spring cleaning on the second day of meteorological spring. This certainly wasn’t the case in all [...]
Session Summary: I good friend sent me a message this afternoon that summed up the day perfectly, “What a difference 4 hours makes.” No exclamation point, no surprise emoji, just a statement of fact. To me, Wednesday was a classic [...]
Session Summary: We’ve reached the end of meteorological winter, meaning it’s quite possible market bears could now come out of hibernation. I’m kidding, of course, but the thought traders could get even more bearish in some markets is enough to [...]
Session Summary: Now that the dust has settled on Monday’s session, for the most part (US stock indexes are still trading as of this writing), let’s take a look at what we are left with. On the Barchart Futures Market [...]
Session Summary: Friday was one of those days that you note in the book, then you burn the book and bury the ashes. There were big moves in nearly every sector, some made sense, others didn’t. The tone was set, [...]
Session Summary: There are a number of things we could say about the commodity complex Wednesday, but all thoughts could be summarized with the simple statement “It was not a day for the faint of heart”. Let’s start with April [...]
Session Summary: Tuesday afternoon found me once again talking to my friend Marlin Bohling with RFD-TV. This time around it was for radio, allowing us to follow-up our pre-market conversation from this morning. One of the questions Marlin asked was [...]
Session Summary: When Barchart posted its Futures Market Heat Map on Twitter Friday afternoon, the energy sector stood alone. As a group the sector was down 4.6%, with the nearest sector being metals showing an aggregate drop of 0.7%. Looking [...]
Session Summary: If you recall the tendencies of a normal week, the 5-day cycle starts with Frantic Friday as part of WWW (Wrap-around Weather-market Weekend) Activity. This is followed by the backend of that same phenomenon with a Manic Monday, [...]
Session Summary: For the most part, markets stuck with the theme of wearing red Wednesday through the close. In the commodity complex, no sector was showing an aggregate gain with the closest being livestock with a cumulative 0.3% loss. We [...]
Session Summary: There were two big stories Tuesday morning. The first actually came from Monday evening and had to do with the Biden Administration announcing another 26 million barrels of oil released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. What got [...]
Session Summary: To call what some markets pulled off to start the week ‘Surprises’ may be an overstatement, but I can say it wasn’t what was expected. To begin with, the US dollar index and gold moved lower together. While [...]
Session Summary: Just as I was settling to write today’s Afternoon Commentary, with a nod to however one wishes to partake of the US Super Bowl this weekend, news broke of the US military “took down an object flying over [...]
Session Summary: As we close the book on a generally uneventful day, I had a couple comments come in that perfectly describe the day. First, just before I started putting Afternoon Commentary together, a friend from Illinois added, “This is [...]
Session Summary: Running the traps of the various market sectors Tuesday afternoon and we can see what looks to be the results of the Goldman Roll. Recall from previous conversations today was the scheduled first day of the fund moving [...]
Session Summary: I don’t know about you, but I found it tough to get going today. Sure, markets were moving, particularly out in the Barn, but once trends were set early things didn’t change all that much. There were exceptions, [...]
Session Summary: Why did the US dollar index rally as much as 1.21 Friday (and sitting on its high as of this writing? Because the January nonfarm payrolls number came in at 517,000 as compared to the “expert” pre-report guess [...]
Session Summary: Now that Groundhog Day has come and gone, a number of markets are giving us something to watch on Friday. Sure, the next round of employment numbers are set for release (January nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate), but [...]
Session Summary: As you know, I spent most of the day putting all the Monthly Commentary and Analysis together, so wasn’t watching markets that closely. As I ran the traps for today’s Afternoon Commentary, I’ll admit I was surprised by [...]
