Big Moves Were Made

2021-10-20T14:56:19-05:00October 20th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As I mentioned in Wednesday’s Morning Commentary, a number of markets were primed to make big moves today and the session didn’t disappoint. Starting with the US dollar index, the green back fell from its early small gain [...]

Off and Running

2021-10-18T15:16:19-05:00October 18th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The week is officially off and running with big moves seen once again in a number of markets. And what would a Monday be without talking about natural gas? Here we see the market gained downside momentum over [...]

Halfway to Winter

2021-10-15T14:24:02-05:00October 15th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Though it is hard to believe, we are already midway through meteorological autumn. This means we are halfway to winter, meteorologically speaking, a thought made real with this week’s reports of 27 inches of snow in Deadwood, South [...]

Could Be a Fun Friday

2021-10-14T14:44:26-05:00October 14th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Given what we saw in a number of markets Thursday, Friday promises to be quite a day. The US dollar index was able to rally off its initial low of 93.75, down 0.26 for the day, moving back [...]

Green as Gold

2021-10-13T14:21:49-05:00October 13th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Once again there were a number of markets making big moves Wednesday, none more so than gold. Here we see the December contract gaining as much as $38.10 (2.2%) before finishing the day nearly $33 higher. It should [...]

And Now We Move On

2021-10-12T14:20:07-05:00October 12th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I know there are plenty of voices out there talking about USDA’s October Supply and Demand reports, but I’m not going to add to the noise yet. Instead, I want to start with the US dollar index that [...]

Just Another Manic Monday

2021-10-11T15:27:53-05:00October 11th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets posted wide swinging moves Monday, none larger than the always wild Widow Maker (aka natural gas). Here we saw an overnight rally of 4.2% followed by a morning selloff of 4.6%, all while the [...]

To a Mouse

2021-10-08T14:39:19-05:00October 8th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Way back in 1786, the Scottish poet Robert Burns wrote his well-known poem, “To a Mouse”. Wait, this doesn’t ring a bell? I understand, but how about if I add one of the more famous lines from the [...]

More Big Moves

2021-10-07T14:30:44-05:00October 7th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As Thursday progressed there were a number of markets that continued to make big moves. I’m going to start in the Barn, because as you know, I still see live cattle fundamentals as bearish based on futures spreads. [...]

Now Things Get Interesting

2021-10-06T14:42:40-05:00October 6th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets either reversed course or solidified their current trends, setting the stage for what could be an explosive end to the first full week of October. Behind it all was the US dollar index that [...]

Plead the Fifth

2021-10-05T14:46:24-05:00October 5th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was an interesting day Tuesday with markets making big moves once again. The energy complex was in the spotlight, naturally, as in the rally was led by natural gas as the spot-month contract gained as much as [...]

That’s a Big 10-4

2021-10-04T14:12:40-05:00October 4th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There were some big moves made by markets Monday, some expected and some a bit surprising. In the latter group I have to put both live cattle and feeder cattle. A friend got in touch with me pre-open [...]

Where to Start

2021-10-01T14:29:31-05:00October 1st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The last day of the week was quite a first day of the month as markets flew around in every which direction. The wheat complex posted one of the most impressive rallies of the day as Chicago (SRW) [...]

Write it Down

2021-09-30T14:34:40-05:00September 30th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s always interesting when trading algorithms based on headlines are given bad data. Things tends to get a bit hinky (a word that, if you remember, drove Deputy Marshall Sam Gerard nuts), and that’s exactly what we saw [...]

An Interesting Day

2021-09-28T14:22:04-05:00September 28th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There was a lot going on Tuesday, starting with the solid rally posted by the US dollar index. As I mentioned in a Quick Takes, the greenback popped to a new 4-month high beyond 93.72 on its way [...]

Major Moves

2021-09-27T14:17:09-05:00September 27th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Sometimes I think of things I should say, then self-edit those thoughts out of my commentary. Such was the case late last week when the low trade volume of a number of markets just gave the vibe a [...]

Like Paint Drying

2021-09-24T14:17:59-05:00September 24th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I understand if you found something other than watching markets Friday; like attending an early high school football game, heading out to the field even if you aren’t in harvest yet, or watching chess on Public Television. Any [...]

Instant Replay

2021-09-23T14:33:05-05:00September 23rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If you are just checking markets and think the day’s close looks familiar, you are correct. The US dollar index was under pressure throughout the day, despite most talking heads on financial television telling us how hawkish US [...]

No Falling Leaves Yet

2021-09-22T14:32:23-05:00September 22nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If we consider the various commodity contracts as leaves on a giant tree, few of them were anything but green on this fall equinox (Wednesday, September 22). As I make my way from limb to limb, the first [...]

Not a Creature was Stirring

2021-09-21T14:06:48-05:00September 21st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I know, it’s not the night before Christmas but a look at market activity, or the lack thereof, certainly suggest nobody was stirring. Not even a mouse. Trade volume was light across the board, automatically attaching an asterisk [...]

Forever and Evergrande

2021-09-20T15:12:06-05:00September 20th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I had a question come in asking, “Do you think China will bail out Evergrande?” First, thank you for sending in questions and comments and second, I forwarded the question on to my son Ben who pays closer [...]

Silver Linings

2021-09-17T14:11:44-05:00September 17th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Let’s start at the very beginning. It’s a very good place to start. Do…as in dough, or the US dollar index shook off its early doldrums to rocket higher Friday, hitting a high of 93.22 and putting it [...]

Lead Zeppelin

2021-09-16T14:24:09-05:00September 16th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: With the US dollar index rallying Thursday, the greenback was up 0.46 at this writing and pressing 93.00, it wasn’t surprising some of the commodity sectors came under increased pressure. Leading the way was metals, the sector falling [...]

Green Day

2021-09-15T15:11:39-05:00September 15th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector in general posted a bullish session, though there were outliers. Most notable in the last group was cattle, both live and feeders, though future spreads indicate pressure didn’t come from commercial interests as expected earlier [...]

Some Things Considered

2021-09-14T14:21:25-05:00September 14th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I tend to take a mental pause whenever I hear the name of the National Public Radio program “All Things Considered”. The reality is there is no way to consider all things, particularly in the markets, when every [...]

Sur-Render

2021-09-13T14:44:36-05:00September 13th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The day started with news of a fire at the JBS packing plant in Grand Island, Nebraska and the initial thought that came to most was of the Tyson fire in Holcomb, Kansas a couple years ago that [...]

Well, That was Interesting

2021-09-10T14:24:32-05:00September 10th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As I often say, USDA report days may not be informative, but they certainly can be entertaining. Friday was no exception with nothing of substance in the reports themselves, while the reaction in corn and soybeans was fun [...]

Horseshoes

2021-09-09T14:23:36-05:00September 9th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I know I’m showing my age with this one, but I remember playing horseshoes, the equivalent of today’s Corn Hole game (appropriately enough, as you’ll see in a bit), at family get-togethers as a kid. Those of you [...]

Hard Red

2021-09-07T14:26:55-05:00September 7th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Almost everywhere you look Tuesday afternoon, commodity markets closed in the red. In fact, the only sector showing much green (outside of the thinly traded rough rice market) was softs. Of the true soft markets, only sugar finished [...]

Live Labor Lost

2021-09-03T14:18:18-05:00September 3rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: This play on the title of one of Shakespeare’s comedies (Love’s Labour’s Lost) is reference to live cattle losing big going into the Labor Day 3-day US holiday weekend. I want to take you back to a couple [...]

Turnaround Thursday

2021-09-02T15:01:34-05:00September 2nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It took a little longer this week, but we finally saw some markets move against previous sessions. Notable in the commodity sector was the grain and oilseed complex that saw almost all contracts close in the green, despite [...]

Not Much Different

2021-09-01T14:35:52-05:00September 1st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: In the end, there was not much difference between yesterday’s last day of meteorological summer and today’s first day of meteorological fall. At least not according to how markets acted. Most of the commodity sector closed in the [...]

Ruby Tuesday, Verse 3

2021-08-31T15:24:19-05:00August 31st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I had to think about the title for a while. But after running the traps of the commodity sector and finding mostly red markets, and this being a Tuesday, well, Ruby Tuesday just made sense again. A simple [...]

For Every Action…

2021-08-30T14:24:48-05:00August 30th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It took a while, but there was finally a reaction by many markets to Hurricane Ida Monday. Let’s start with November lumber, as rebuilding is always a top priority and a major talking point on market tv throughout [...]

The Camel Wore Green, Mostly

2021-08-25T14:36:58-05:00August 25th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I know you remember the television commercial with the camel walking around an office asking everyone what day it is. Well, this particular Hump Day, also known as a Wheat and/or Whiskey Wednesday found most commodities wearing green [...]

Paint It Black

2021-08-24T15:37:19-05:00August 24th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Like many others around the world, I’ve spent the afternoon listening to classic Rolling Stones songs following the news legendary drummer Charlie Watts has passed away. With that in mind, each segment of today’s Afternoon Commentary will be [...]

Cattle, Construction, and Crude

2021-08-23T15:11:49-05:00August 23rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There were some big moves Monday with crude oil, cattle (both live and feeder) and construction relate markets (e.g. lumber and copper) leading the way. Let’s start with the cattle markets where traders came out with all guns [...]

Blood Red and Going Down

2021-08-20T14:23:29-05:00August 20th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I don’t know what the Georgia sun is going to do later today, but I do know this description fit the grain and oilseed complex at Friday’s close. There were other markets in similar shape with crude oil [...]

Nothing to See Here Folks

2021-08-18T15:35:13-05:00August 18th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There wasn’t much going on in the grain and oilseed complex Wednesday as markets registered decreases in trade volume. I guess we could call it a Turnaround Wednesday though since markets that closed lower yesterday were able to [...]

A Mixed Monday

2021-08-16T14:52:08-05:00August 16th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A look across the commodity landscape shows some hits and misses, with the most notable bullish action coming from lean hogs. Here we see the nearby October issue closing $2.475 higher, after trading up as much as $2.775, [...]

Another One Bites the Dust

2021-08-13T14:27:19-05:00August 13th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Another week has come and gone, and a number of markets have headed into the weekend with a flourish. Let’s start with the US dollar index. After largely ignoring Wednesday’s short-term bearish technical pattern during Thursday’s session sellers [...]

Time to Move On

2021-08-12T15:20:13-05:00August 12th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Now that USDA is out of the way, it’s time to move on in the grain and oilseed complex. And by moving on in some cases it means moving back to watching weather maps. As I attached to [...]

Green Eggs and Ham

2021-08-10T15:14:15-05:00August 10th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Let me begin by saying I’ve always been a big fan of Dr. Seuss. But going back to when I was young, I couldn’t help but think that if one actually ate green eggs and green ham one [...]

A Day in the Life

2021-08-09T15:24:34-05:00August 9th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: We are clearly in the Dog Days of August at this point, with traders showing little interest in most markets. There were a couple exceptions, of course, with coffee posting a strong 3.4-cent (1.9%) rally while energies were [...]

Mixed Market Melodrama

2021-08-04T14:23:52-05:00August 4th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Thinking about Wednesday’s session, one can’t say lacked for activity. Spot-month crude oil fell as much as $2.71 (3.8%) and was still within sight of its session low late in the afternoon. Additionally, gold tried to rally early [...]

Bear Country

2021-08-03T14:19:02-05:00August 3rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As it turned out, commodity market bulls should’ve taken warning Tuesday morning as the sector in general took a trip through Bear Country as the day progressed. The one sector that missed this particular field trip was softs [...]

A Bit of Everything

2021-08-02T14:56:48-05:00August 2nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It didn’t matter if one was bullish, bearish, or couldn’t care less about commodities Monday for there was a market move to fit your mood. For those of you who, like Garfield the Cat, detest Mondays then the [...]

Bear Attack

2021-07-30T14:35:04-05:00July 30th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: That was carnage. The commodity sector in general met a grisly fate Friday with all but the energy complex finishing the day blood red once bearish traders were done. I guess that makes it a “grizzly” fate. The [...]

Back in the Green

2021-07-29T15:09:51-05:00July 29th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector in general was set to finish in the green Thursday, with the exceptions be softs and livestock. In the softs we see Dec cotton down about 0.2 cent while orange juice, coffee, and sugar all [...]

Another Verse of Ruby Tuesday

2021-07-27T17:08:27-05:00July 27th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: At one point this afternoon, the title I had for this piece made more sense. Then soybeans, Kansas City wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and gold decided to rally into the close. Still, a look across the commodity sector landscape [...]

Turnaround Monday

2021-07-26T15:09:05-05:00July 26th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If you want a picture-perfect example of the Wilhelmi Element, look no further than Monday’s session. My late friend, and former CBOT floor reporter Gary Wilhelmi was fond of saying, “The only price that matters is the close”, [...]

Into the Weekend

2021-07-23T15:28:40-05:00July 23rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s almost time to turn off the quote machines and head into another weekend. For much of the US, this means two days without markets but with above normal temperatures. And while the grain and oilseed complex didn’t [...]

A Hard Look at Softs

2021-07-22T14:53:17-05:00July 22nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Most commodity complexes posted big moves Thursday so it’s hard to pick one that stands out. However, I want to lead with softs given the incredible 10% rally posted by the September contract, reportedly the market’s largest one [...]

On to Thursday

2021-07-21T14:49:12-05:00July 21st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: For those of you with other things to do today I can wrap Wednesday’s session up in one sentence: Markets in general were quiet, with a few surprises sprinkled in and crude oil making a strong comeback from [...]

The Outlier

2021-07-20T14:23:04-05:00July 20th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As I ran the traps of the commodity sector Tuesday afternoon, I noticed an interesting pattern. I took a quick look at the various complexes including energies, metals, livestock, softs, and grains and oilseeds. And in each complex, [...]

Delta Down

2021-07-19T15:30:50-05:00July 19th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A good friend called around midday and said, “This looks more like a macro event than a fundamental shift in the markets.” And for the most part he was spot-on, with nearly every market in every sector getting [...]

Another Day Done

2021-07-16T14:21:44-05:00July 16th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s closing time again, time to shut the machines down and head off in whatever direction the weekend takes us. There was a lot of market movement Friday without any fundamental changes occurring. Some markets moved big one [...]

Not What I Expected

2021-07-14T14:48:33-05:00July 14th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As some of you might recall, my quotes are on a 10-minute delay. Not being a trader, I don’t have a need for live quotes, though sometimes it leads to surprises. Such was the case earlier Wednesday morning [...]

A Day for Coffee

2021-07-13T15:08:56-05:00July 13th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday saw the commodity sector close mostly higher. Those markets that didn’t made sense with winter wheat sliding lower on harvest pressure, natural gas posting a loss because the rest of the energy complex was higher, and lumber [...]

The Weekend Awaits

2021-07-09T14:36:03-05:00July 9th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: We can close the books on another week, though shortened by a US holiday this past Monday still packed with plenty of drama and activity. The grain and oilseed complex was an interesting study as it posted a [...]

Running the Traps

2021-07-08T15:21:16-05:00July 8th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A couple of market sectors jump out at me after a quick check of commodities in general Thursday afternoon. First, the energy complex moved from red to green over the course of the day with RBOB gasoline (up [...]

Hard to Describe

2021-07-07T14:28:51-05:00July 7th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday’s session across the commodity sector landscape is hard to describe. There was a little bit of everything: Big rallies and sharp selloffs, follow-through activity from Tuesday’s session and Turnaround Wednesday style trade. At one point there was [...]

A Dud

2021-07-02T14:32:03-05:00July 2nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Friday’s expected fireworks show turned out to be a dud as traders seemed to head home early for the US 3-day holiday weekend. There were exceptions, with the US dollar index under increased pressure as the day wore [...]

A Bit of Everything

2021-07-01T15:10:58-05:00July 1st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There were fireworks aplenty Thursday, just not to the degree we saw Wednesday in the grain and oilseed complex. The spot August crude oil contract hit a high of $76.22, its highest mark since October 2018 as traders [...]

Weather Vacuums

2021-06-29T14:40:18-05:00June 29th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A good friend called me around 11:30 (CT) Tuesday morning and asked, “What do you think of spring wheat?” The September contract had just fallen to its low of the day at $7.96, down 38 cents from Monday’s [...]

Making a Statement

2021-06-28T14:52:22-05:00June 28th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If asked, I’d be honest and say, “No, I did not see multiples of a 20-cent rally in store for both corn and soybeans coming to start the week.” But it came. It came just the same. It [...]

The Stage is Set

2021-06-24T16:29:34-05:00June 24th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Given what we saw across the commodity sector landscape Thursday, the stage is set for Friday to be an interesting session. One market that stood out was the expanded limit $4.50 break in July lean hogs, while August [...]

Weather Test

2021-06-22T15:07:11-05:00June 22nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: When I get to the individual Commentary segments for corn, soybeans, and wheat today I’m going to give you a little test. With that in mind, I’ll save my opening comments regarding the grain and oilseed sector until [...]

A Strange Day

2021-06-21T14:51:10-05:00June 21st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The best word to describe Monday’s session is “strange”. Going back through the overnight session, it looked like the grain and oilseed complex was set for a meltdown. Then, most of the morning saw markets find renewed buying [...]

Green Screen

2021-06-04T14:10:11-05:00June 4th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: it’s always interesting the difference 24 hours can make. Recall from Thursday at this time I was talking about how not a single contract in the grain and oilseed complex was in the green, the screen awash in [...]

No Green to be Seen

2021-06-03T14:26:43-05:00June 3rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I’ll give this to the grain and oilseed complex Thursday, there was not a green number to be seen at the close. The closest contract, outside of some far deferred issues, was new-crop November rice closing unchanged on [...]

Overcooked Beef

2021-06-02T14:33:13-05:00June 2nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: To some, there is no culinary crime more heinous than overcooking beef. In my years of travel, I had the opportunity to dine with folks who ate a lot of steak, usually ordering it in the medium to [...]

Sum Sum Summertime

2021-06-01T14:39:57-05:00June 1st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If Tuesday’s markets are any indication, this summer is going to be hot! But then again, that goes without saying because summer is supposed to be hot. And that’s where I got lost on the strong rally in [...]

Close the Book

2021-05-28T15:13:29-05:00May 28th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: We can now close the book on the spring 2021 season, for when we are back together again next Tuesday it will be the first day of meteorological summer. Books will be written about everything that has happened [...]

Quite a Day

2021-05-26T14:09:33-05:00May 26th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday was the kind of day when if you didn’t like the way a market looked, turn the quote screen off and come back an hour later and it will have change completely. There were several big moves, [...]

It Got Worse

2021-05-25T14:35:47-05:00May 25th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Remember yesterday when I quoted the line from “Young Frankenstein” (Could be worse…Could be raining.)? Well, it got worse Tuesday as corn fell apart completely. I’ll be changing my Weekly Column schedule a bit to talk about today’s [...]

Could Be Worse…

2021-05-24T14:53:40-05:00May 24th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: …Could be raining. Those of you who have been with me over the years will recall this is one of my favorite lines from one of my favorite movies, Mel Brooks’ “Young Frankenstein”. In the scene the young [...]

A Big Day for Some

2021-05-21T14:01:46-05:00May 21st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: After strong double-digit moves were posted by corn and soybeans overnight, both markets fizzled and sputtered over the course of Friday’s session. But just because two of the stars of the commodity sector called it an early week [...]

No Royal Flush Thursday

2021-05-20T14:21:25-05:00May 20th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The likelihood of all three Kings of Commodities closing lower Thursday was washed away midmorning when Dec corn hit a vacuum and quickly jumped to its session high (for further discussion, see Thursday afternoon’s Quick Takes, “This is [...]

The Wilhelmi Element

2021-05-19T15:39:02-05:00May 19th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I’m posting Afternoon Commentary a bit later than usual Wednesday because I wanted to see how US stock indexes closed out the day. Near the 1:30pm (CT) mark, markets looked like they might completely erase what had large [...]

Some Turned, Some Didn’t

2021-05-18T14:55:26-05:00May 18th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As most Tuesday’s go, this one wasn’t overly intriguing, though we did see some markets change directions over the course of the day. Most notable was the energy complex where an in initial rally couldn’t be sustained, leading [...]

Everything in Moderation

2021-05-17T14:38:06-05:00May 17th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Sure, there were some big moves posted in the commodity sector Monday, most notably old-crop July canola rallying $45 (5.2%), natural gas jumping 15 cents (5.1%), and lumber falling its daily limit $63 (4.5%). And other markets had [...]

Watch the Weather

2021-05-14T15:47:27-05:00May 14th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Friday’s Afternoon Commentary is a little late because I was a guest analyst on Feedstuffs The Locker Room online market panel discussion. The last question my friend and host Mike Pearson asked was, “What should producers be watching [...]

Happy Hour

2021-05-13T15:08:19-05:00May 13th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The phrase “happy hour” can be interpreted a number of ways. At the end of a good day, getting together with friends and associates to down a few cocktails is certainly reason to be “happy”. On the other [...]

24 Hours Later

2021-05-11T15:28:34-05:00May 11th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: And just like that, it’s like Bloody Monday never happened. Was it Turnaround Tuesday activity? Not exactly, as new-crop December corn gained at most 9 cents of its opening 27-cent selloff back before closing only 2 cents higher [...]

Bloody Monday

2021-05-10T14:20:59-05:00May 10th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Over the years I’ve had the opportunity to work with folks from all over the world including England, New Zealand, Australia, etc. I learned to appreciate the word “bloody” as an adverb, not in the US gore and [...]

One Brief Moment

2021-05-07T14:23:45-05:00May 7th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The US dollar index never recovered from Friday morning’s underwhelming April jobs report, with the US economy creating a mere 266,000 jobs during the month as compared to the pre-report guess of 1 million. This dropped the greenback [...]

Just Another Day

2021-05-06T15:56:53-05:00May 6th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As strange as it sounds, the 20-cent rallies in corn and soybeans post Thursday did make it just another day, not that much different than any of the others we’ve seen since last August. New-crop December corn was [...]

A Line in the Sand

2021-05-04T14:49:09-05:00May 4th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If we drew a line in the sand to separate the commodity markets between those that moved more than 1% (up or down) Tuesday from the others, the group on the “less than” side would have no trouble [...]

Quite a Day

2021-05-03T14:45:33-05:00May 3rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If nothing else, Monday was an interesting start to the week and month. We saw the US dollar index get pummeled, sparking a rally in the euro, Canadian dollar, and Brazilian real. This also provided support to commodities [...]

An Interesting Close

2021-04-29T14:56:25-05:00April 29th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: This has been a weird week. I don’t know how else to describe it. The two shining examples Thursday were corn and soybeans, and I’ll go into more detail in their individual segments. The US dollar index was [...]

Commercial Free

2021-04-28T15:12:50-05:00April 28th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As I ran the traps of all the different market sectors Wednesday afternoon, the one thing that stood out to me was that almost all of the pressure came from the noncommercial side. This is interesting given the [...]

The Wilhelmi Element

2021-04-23T14:16:03-05:00April 23rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Those who have been with me for a while know I have 7 Market Rules that help me make sense of things, but there are another 40-some theories, ideas, and points that I’ve developed over the years to [...]

A Day of Days

2021-04-22T14:38:45-05:00April 22nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s quite possible we witnessed the breaking point in many markets Thursday as the runaway train that is the grain and oilseed complex gained even more speed. The ripple effect was a meltdown in the livestock sector, most [...]

Cold Temps, Hot Markets

2021-04-21T14:56:19-05:00April 21st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The grain and oilseed complex continued to boil over Wednesday with corn and soybean oil leading the way. All three wheat markets were also higher, due in large part to cold temperatures across the US Plains and Midwest. [...]

Another Big Day

2021-04-20T14:55:14-05:00April 20th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets made big moves Tuesday, with the most surprising being lumber. Recall from Monday’s Commentary when I mentioned because of its limit up close ($32 per 1,000 board feet) the futures market was facing expanded [...]

Role Reversal

2021-04-19T14:51:04-05:00April 19th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Early Monday morning, old-crop corn led the grain and oilseed complex higher. However, by the time Monday’s closing bell rang the same old-crop corn market had taken a back seat to new-crop corn and both soybean markets. More [...]

Some Surprises Along the Way

2021-04-15T14:38:51-05:00April 15th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Looking at the markets Thursday afternoon, two stand out as not what I would’ve expected to see at the close: Old-crop corn and lean hogs. Starting with the latter, contracts closed the daily limit $3 down from May [...]

Big Moves Abound

2021-04-14T14:39:22-05:00April 14th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Volatility seems to be picking up across the commodity sector as a number of markets posted big moves again Wednesday. Leading the way was the energy complex where WTI crude oil gained as much as $3.26 (5.4%) while [...]

Looking Weak to Start the Week

2021-04-12T15:03:00-05:00April 12th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector was awash in red ink Monday afternoon with every sector showing at least some crimson. The energy complex was the most bullish, largely by default, with crude oil posting a modest $0.25 rally and natural [...]

Liftoff

2021-04-08T15:05:15-05:00April 8th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector saw a number of markets make big moves Thursday, with King Corn easily leading the way. I’ll go into more detail in its individual commentary segment but suffice it to say the market was lifted [...]

A Peculiar Start to the Week

2021-04-05T14:54:29-05:00April 5th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Monday’s markets were peculiar, in that there didn’t seem to be a common thread linking the sectors. Often when we see the US dollar index reverse course and move lower, like it did Monday, commodities in general tend [...]

Play Ball!

2021-04-01T14:36:04-05:00April 1st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The 2021 Major League Baseball season got underway Thursday afternoon, though the games initially took a back seat to what we were watching in markets. There was a lot of movement the day before a 3-day holiday weekend [...]

The Red “C”

2021-03-30T15:05:20-05:00March 30th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector looked like it was dunked in the Red Sea Tuesday with nearly every market in all sectors closing lower. One of the exceptions was lumber, which remained red hot as the May contract posted a [...]

Another Mixed Monday

2021-03-29T14:46:28-05:00March 29th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There was no consensus in the commodity sector Monday as some markets posted big rallies, some showed large selloffs, others made wide swings in both directions, and a few did little to nothing. The most bullish sector was [...]

A Fitting End to the Week

2021-03-26T14:42:03-05:00March 26th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As the sun gets ready to set on another week we can look back and say, “Wow, that was interesting.” And with that in mind, Friday was the perfect cliffhanger ending as it left plenty of unanswered questions [...]

Not So Green Day

2021-03-25T15:20:04-05:00March 25th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Sometimes there are days like Thursday when the commodity sector just tanks. On such days one can often point to the US dollar, and indeed the greenback was stronger, putting pressure on not only commodities by other global [...]

More Ups than Downs

2021-03-24T14:42:42-05:00March 24th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday was an interesting day, highlighted by another round of markets making big moves. In the energy complex it was a case of recovery from Tuesday’s selloff with Brent crude up $3.30 (5.4%) and WTI rallying $3.10 (also [...]

Quite a Day

2021-03-23T14:20:22-05:00March 23rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday was quite a day as a number of markets made large moves, some in more than one direction. The starting point has to be the US dollar index as the greenback followed Monday’s lackluster session with a [...]

Boiling Oil

2021-03-22T14:06:18-05:00March 22nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Two of the hottest markets as this week got under way could be found in the oilseed complex: Soybean Oil and Canola. The latter gained as much as $22.20 over the course of the day before closing $19.70 [...]

Throwaway Thursday

2021-03-19T14:03:25-05:00March 19th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Way back when I used to give presentations on market related things, one of the more amusing parts was the nicknames for the various days of the week. You are familiar with more often talked about Frantic Friday [...]

Go to Top