Out Like a Lion

2021-03-05T14:25:18-06:00March 5th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If the month of March came in like a lamb, weatherwise, markets in general went out the first week like a lion. Gains were seen almost across the board, with crude oil (up 3.5%) and oats (3.6%) leading [...]

Making a Statement

2021-03-04T14:31:16-06:00March 4th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary:  Thursday’s highlights included a couple of market moving statements. First, an early statement from OPEC+ that production cuts would remain in place through April sent crude oil markets skyrocketing. The international Brent market gained as much as 5.7% [...]

Wednesday’s Silver Lining

2021-03-03T14:20:22-06:00March 3rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary:  As closing bells were ringing across the various market landscapes, the best word to describe the day’s activity was “Meh”. Yes, some markets made big moves, most notably crude oil to the upside (2.5%) and cotton to the [...]

A Good Day to Do Something Else

2021-02-25T14:32:59-06:00February 25th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Over the decades I’ve often joked there are days to turn off the quote screens and find something else to do. Particularly if it’s nice outside, and according to a post I saw about Kansas weather, temperatures have [...]

Spring is in the Air

2021-02-24T14:30:19-06:00February 24th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Somewhere the birds are chirping, the bees are buzzing, and baseball gloves are popping; all the familiar sounds of spring we look forward to every year. Markets, almost regardless of sector, are in the swing of spring with [...]

More Big Moves

2021-02-23T14:22:45-06:00February 23rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday was another day of big moves, with the only difference being which markets were most active. Where the energy complex ruled Monday’s session, the oilseed complex was the star Tuesday. Here we saw soybeans rally as much [...]

The Rally Continues

2021-02-22T14:32:12-06:00February 22nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was another big day in the commodity sector, led by an impressive 4% rally in crude oil. Here we see the spot-month contract hitting a high of $61.84, quickly looking to erase last week’s bearish reversal on [...]

Time for the Weekend

2021-02-19T14:24:07-06:00February 19th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Friday saw a lot of market movement though little changed when all was said and done. The US dollar index was lower, but never threatened to extend its selloff, keeping a lid on a potential rally in metals. [...]

Mixed Markets Midweek

2021-02-17T14:47:32-06:00February 17th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday’s session saw mixed results with some sectors posting solid gains (energies), some solid losses (livestock), and most everything else mixed. Let’s start with the US dollar index that posted a solid rally, following up Tuesday’s short-term bullish [...]

Red Hot Markets

2021-02-16T14:33:07-06:00February 16th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector was interesting again Tuesday as most markets stayed red hot despite the stronger US dollar index. Starting with the greenback, the daily chart is showing a bullish key reversal indicating the short-term trend could be [...]

Another Step Closer to Spring

2021-02-12T16:13:47-06:00February 12th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: We can close the book on another week, the second week of February, meaning there are only two weeks remaining until March 1 and the start of meteorological spring. Regardless of what Punxsutawney Phil said earlier this month. [...]

In the End

2021-02-11T14:25:21-06:00February 11th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: When all is said and done, the only thing for certain is that it’s over. The grain and oilseed complex was interesting in the respect that soybeans had outshone corn for much of Thursday’s session, right up until [...]

Bingo

2021-02-10T14:42:20-06:00February 10th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A common question Wednesday was, “What happened to corn and soybeans?” As always, there are countless reasons “why” markets do what they do, but a couple of simple ideas is that Tuesday’s USDA report did not fill the [...]

Richard Marx Was Right

2021-02-09T13:51:31-06:00February 9th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The best way to think about Tuesday’s round of USDA monthly Supply and Demand reports is to remember what Richard Marx told us, “It don’t mean nothin’”. I’ll go into each of the grain markets individually, but the [...]

No Bears Anywhere

2021-02-08T14:14:55-06:00February 8th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Commodity market bears are in hibernation, allowing bulls to run free across the sector. Monday was a great example, for no matter where you looked you could see a market making a big move. Energies? Distillates rallied 1.8% [...]

A Fitting End to Groundhog Week

2021-02-05T14:28:50-06:00February 5th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A look across the commodity sector landscape shows wide price swings galore, with cotton again in the spotlight. After rallying more than 3.0 cents Thursday the nearby March contract fell 1.67 cents at Friday’s close on renewed commercial [...]

Another Wild Day

2021-02-04T15:09:26-06:00February 4th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets posted wide trading ranges again Thursday, with cotton stealing the spotlight. Here we see the March issue closed 3.29 cents higher, gaining 0.13 on May and 0.28 on July, indicating strong support from the [...]

Boom Time

2021-02-03T14:58:47-06:00February 3rd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday was quite a day with big moves posted by a number of market sectors. Crude oil led the way with the spot-month contract up 1.7% on a round of solid buying from both noncommercial and commercial traders. [...]

Winter All the Way

2021-02-02T15:38:11-06:00February 2nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As you all know by now, Punxsutawney Phil somehow defied the odds of a cloudy, snowy early February morning in central Pennsylvania and saw his shadow, projecting six more weeks of winter. Though I give the enterprise the [...]

The Anticipation Builds

2021-02-01T14:13:05-06:00February 1st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: With Monday’s session winding down, the anticipation toward Tuesday’s weather revelation by Punxsutawney continues to build. Before we get there, though, some markets were dealing with the present weather, most notably the Nor’easter plowing across, well, the US [...]

A Wild and Wooly Week

2021-01-29T16:42:27-06:00January 29th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s difficult to quickly summarize all we saw this week, with market sectors across the board going haywire. As I mentioned in a conversation with my friend Neils Christensen of Kitco News, what we see in markets now [...]

One For the Record Books

2021-01-28T15:03:58-06:00January 28th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Thursday was quite a day, regardless of the market sector one looked at. Let’s start in US stock markets where rules were changed on the fly to help hedge funds caught in a short-squeeze by retail traders, sending [...]

Microwaved Tuna

2021-01-27T14:51:27-06:00January 27th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Though I haven’t worked in an office environment with other people for roughly 2.5 years, one of the unwritten rules is you don’t microwave leftover fish for lunch. Why? Because the entire building will know someone has crossed [...]

More Big Moves

2021-01-26T15:52:38-06:00January 26th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday saw a number of markets post another round of big moves, with King Corn leading the way. Though I’ll talk about it in more detail individually, a quick summary is the market raced 4% higher on solid [...]

Just Another Manic Monday

2021-01-25T15:06:23-06:00January 25th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As expected given last week’s Frantic Friday that led into a South American weather market weekend, Monday proved to be Manic indeed. Markets were flying all over the place, most posting wide trading ranges, some with support from [...]

Big Moves

2021-01-22T14:33:18-06:00January 22nd, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I think I speak for everyone when I say, “Thank goodness Friday is over.” If one is bullish livestock, they were likely tickled pink with what happened over the course of the session. March feeders closed the limit [...]

Friday Could Be Frantic

2021-01-21T15:00:54-06:00January 21st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Back in the day, at my previous position, we held a series of Marketing University events. One of the “courses” was my take on some of the situations that play out from time to time. Part of this [...]

Recovery

2021-01-20T14:44:37-06:00January 20th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The morning was as dark and bleak as the day that proceeded it, but as the sun worked its way across the sky the general attitude seemed to lift. By the end of the day, it was hard [...]

What a Day…

2021-01-19T15:23:43-06:00January 19th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: That was the entirety of the message a good friend sent to me as the grain and oilseed complex came to a close Tuesday. That was a great way of summing up the day’s activity, and I’ll get [...]

The Last Week

2021-01-15T14:36:01-06:00January 15th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: What a week. So many markets showing so much volatility, all during what is usually a relatively quiet time of year. As Friday moved toward its close the US dollar index was at its highest level in almost [...]

“Resistance is Futile”

2021-01-14T14:42:41-06:00January 14th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A friend from Kansas suggested this Star Trek line for the title of a piece of Commentary someday, and given what we saw Thursday, there is no better time than the present. The grain and oilseed sector exploded [...]

As Expected

2021-01-13T14:51:59-06:00January 13th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday’s session was nowhere near as explosive as Tuesday, but that was to be expected given some of the market moves from 24 hours ago. One exception was US treasuries as the US 30-year T-bond gained more than [...]

Far from Normal

2021-01-12T15:07:27-06:00January 12th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Another USDA January data dump has come and gone, though the results were far from normal. Those of us who watch real market fundamentals were not surprised the grain and oilseed complex continued to move higher, though I’m [...]

A Wild Start to the Week

2021-01-11T15:03:52-06:00January 11th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The second half of my latest weekly column, posted over the weekend just passed, now seems outdated. Recall I talked about how the Three Kings of Commodities were all looking to be overthrown by the new triumvirate of [...]

Turn the Machines Off

2021-01-08T14:42:20-06:00January 8th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s finally Friday afternoon, and only US stock markets are working toward their weekly close. It was an incredible week, filled with sights and sounds long thought unimaginable. Through it all the markets trundled on, with those same [...]

Warning Signs

2021-01-07T14:36:37-06:00January 7th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was another interesting day Thursday, though in a much different way than what we saw Wednesday. As an update: I have not seen anything definite as far as a change in the Oval Office at the US [...]

Anarchy

2021-01-06T15:04:12-06:00January 6th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: My apologies for this Afternoon Commentary being late, but I had to check on some reporter friends of mine who cover agriculture from Washington, D.C. I’m glad to report they are all well and extended those hopes to [...]

Stampede

2021-01-05T14:24:07-06:00January 5th, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It didn’t matter where you looked Tuesday, you were likely to see a market racing higher. A glance at the energy complex shows crude oil up almost 5% with the spot-month contract cracking $50 for the first time [...]

Adieu to 2020

2020-12-31T14:26:53-06:00December 31st, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: From a market point of view, 2020 is nearing its end with only US stock markets still open. As I said in my most recent Weekly Column, this was a year that will not soon be forgotten, and [...]

Wheat’s Turn to Lead

2020-12-30T14:21:44-06:00December 30th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: In the race up Price Mountain, this Wheat (Whiskey) Wednesday saw the wheat complex lead the way in the grain and oilseed complex, fittingly enough. As it did Tuesday, corn posted another strong rally but still came in [...]

What a Day

2020-12-29T14:27:26-06:00December 29th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Incredible. That’s really the only word I can come up with when I look at how markets are closing Tuesday afternoon. Incredible. January soybeans (nearing delivery) were up 40 cents. March corn was a couple ticks short of [...]

King Corn’s Muscle

2020-12-28T14:30:16-06:00December 28th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There were a number of things I could lead with in discussing Monday’s session, but the most impressive was the strength of King Corn as the market kept its head while all about it were losing theirs. I’ll [...]

Mele Kalikimaka

2020-12-24T13:37:27-06:00December 24th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As markets come to a close Thursday, thoughts have turned to holiday things. And with temperatures across most of the US and Canada well below freezing, those same thoughts take us to spending the holiday in Hawaii (“From [...]

Big Green Commodity Machine

2020-12-23T15:07:51-06:00December 23rd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A quick check of commodities Wednesday afternoon returned a familiar picture: The sector continues to power onward and upward like a “tremendous machine” (still one of my favorite sports memories). February crude oil gained more than $1 (2.3%) [...]

Sensing a Change

2020-12-22T16:41:41-06:00December 22nd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Maybe it’s just the time of the year, but I’m starting to sense a disturbance in the bullish force that has been the commodity sector of late. The US dollar index was actually able to rally and hold [...]

More Ivy than Holly

2020-12-18T14:38:44-06:00December 18th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A week before Christmas and most commodities closed ivy green, with only a few showing holly red. The strongest mover was the oilseed complex where the leader was actually soybean meal with a gain of 1.9%, followed by [...]

More Questions Than Answers

2020-12-16T14:16:59-06:00December 16th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: With closing bells ringing across the market landscape Wednesday afternoon, we are left with more questions than answers. Has the US dollar index finally bottomed, a result of the Federal Reserve’s decision not to increase its treasury buying [...]

Beans Go Big

2020-12-15T14:26:35-06:00December 15th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector was higher Tuesday, possibly supported in part by another day of selling in the US dollar index. Much of this activity continues to be tied to ideas the US Federal Reserve will take an aggressive [...]

That Time of Year

2020-12-14T14:00:14-06:00December 14th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As I’ve mentioned in a couple pieces of Commentary and Analysis, we are in the quietest quarter of the marketing year, at least for the grain and oilseed complex, with little news emerging to spark trading interest. That [...]

Closing Time

2020-12-11T14:45:22-06:00December 11th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Another week has come to an end, mostly, with only US stock markets making their way toward closing time. There was a lot of movement in a number of sectors, though trade volume could generally be classified as [...]

A Lot of Energy

2020-12-10T14:24:55-06:00December 10th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The energy complex stole the spotlight Thursday as the spot-month crude oil contract rallied as much as $2.22 (deuces were obviously wild), or about 5% at its session high. Distillates (heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) had [...]

A Big Little Day

2020-12-09T14:13:58-06:00December 9th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets posted big moves Wednesday on what looked to be little trade volume. Cotton, for example, added 1.5% with the March issue registering less than 15,000 contracts changing hands. The May issue didn’t even reach [...]

Well Mixed

2020-12-08T14:19:34-06:00December 8th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector was mixed at Tuesday’s close with the big winner being orange juice. What does this mean? For starters, your Screwdriver might cost a little more, but if I show my age a bit the bigger [...]

Just a Swingin’

2020-12-07T14:37:31-06:00December 7th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A lot of markets spent the day swinging back and forth across unchanged including soybeans, wheat, cotton, and metals. Others were swinging, but had a tough time breaking the plane of unchanged. This group consisted of energies, the [...]

Closing Bell

2020-12-04T14:33:56-06:00December 4th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Another week is in the books with Friday’s session giving us some things to ponder over the weekend. First, the US dollar Index was able to claw its way back into the green late in the day, though [...]

Recovery Mode

2020-12-03T15:07:07-06:00December 3rd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets traded lower early Thursday, only to shrug off pressure to storm higher at the close. Even those that closed lower, like live cattle, rallied well off session lows as the session came to an [...]

Another Mixed Bag of Markets

2020-12-02T14:22:19-06:00December 2nd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was another interesting day as most markets bounced back and forth across unchanged. The biggest loser looks to be the oilseed complex where soybeans and canola dropped 0.7% while bean meal slipped 1.2%. On the other hand, [...]

A Wintry Mix

2020-12-01T14:22:13-06:00December 1st, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The first day of meteorological winter gave us mixed results with some markets posting strong rallies and some strong selloffs. Others, like soybeans, gave us a little bit of both. The two markets sectors grabbing my attention most [...]

Fall-ing Out

2020-11-30T14:21:13-06:00November 30th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Well folks, we made it through another season, meteorologically speaking. Monday’s close marks the end of fall and a look across the commodity sector finds markets are mostly lower. Livestock was an outlier, mostly, with both feeder cattle [...]

Fundamentally Strong

2020-11-24T15:13:21-06:00November 24th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector, in general, roared back to life Tuesday after some markets saw heavy selling overnight. One of the most impressive set of markets was the wheat complex where contracts spent the overnight session in the red-light [...]

Quite a Way to Start the Week

2020-11-23T14:47:46-06:00November 23rd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The livestock sector roared higher again Monday with all three markets posting strong triple-digit gains. Commercial activity was mixed, not just in the sector but in individual markets. Note December live cattle lost $0.35 to February, while February [...]

A Bacon Burger with Coffee

2020-11-20T13:57:51-06:00November 20th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: For the second consecutive day, the livestock sector was easily the most interesting in the commodity complex. Both cattle markets were under pressure for most of Friday’s session, before a solid round of noncommercial buying lifted live to [...]

Livestock Stampede

2020-11-19T15:54:27-06:00November 19th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The livestock sector stole the spotlight Thursday, but not in the way market bulls would’ve preferred. Strong selling was seen in all three markets, and if we want to include Class III milk the count goes up to [...]

An Interesting Day

2020-11-18T14:44:13-06:00November 18th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I thought long and hard about how to best describe Wednesday’s market action, and the word I kept coming back to was “interesting”. Leading the way had to be the oilseed complex where soybeans didn’t finish as strong [...]

Kicked By Cattle

2020-11-17T14:36:40-06:00November 17th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As many of you know, I have posted a number of charts and studies pointing out the bearishness of February live cattle. The two most recent examples were a price distribution chart Monday (though it was partially bullish) [...]

Strong Start at the End

2020-11-16T15:42:34-06:00November 16th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: At the end of the day, commodities had posted a strong start to the week. Coffee led the way with a 5.9% gain as the Dec contract rocketed to a high of 116.20 while strong commercial buying was [...]

It Was a Thursday

2020-11-12T14:14:06-06:00November 12th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Thursday was just a day, one best described with “it could’ve been better, or it could’ve been worse”. That was true whether one was bullish or bearish. The US dollar index traded either side of unchanged while US [...]

An Interesting Day

2020-11-11T15:10:42-06:00November 11th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Markets were indeed interesting in many sectors, with a variety of reversals seen on daily charts. One of the hosts on CNBC even mentioned “reversals of reversals” as the day played out. The bottom line is many markets [...]

Big Moves

2020-11-10T14:13:18-06:00November 10th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: For whatever reason, USDA decided to make some big changes to its supply and demand numbers, with the end result getting back in line with reality. In some cases, the divergence goes back four years, to the beginning [...]

“A Great Day for Science…”

2020-11-09T14:00:26-06:00November 9th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Those were the words Dr. Albert Bourla, chairman and CEO of Pfizer, used to describe Monday morning as trial results on his company’s Covid-19 vaccine showed 90%-plus efficiency. Shortly after this announcement was made on CNBC, President-elect Biden [...]

And Now We Wait

2020-11-06T14:29:08-06:00November 6th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets were back to telling us a familiar story Friday afternoon, one of ideas of potential change in administrations in the United States. But there has been no confirmation, in fact there is little change [...]

Freedom

2020-11-05T14:48:07-06:00November 5th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There were some impressive market moves again Thursday, most notably the 5.8% rally posted by silver and 2.8% gain in gold. Much of this was due to the sharp 0.99 selloff by the US dollar index, though crude [...]

Big Moves

2020-11-04T14:12:08-06:00November 4th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The theme of Wednesday’s session was big moves in a number of markets. Let’s start with US stock indexes where the Nasdaq jumped about 575 points (5.1%) at its high of the day. This was an interesting development, [...]

An Interesting Day

2020-11-03T14:26:19-06:00November 3rd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector in general closed higher Tuesday with the big winners, and losers, housed in the softs and energies complex. Cotton posted a strong 2.2% rally on renewed commercial buying interest, equaling the change in spot-month crude [...]

Both Sides, Now

2020-11-02T14:00:21-06:00November 2nd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets traded both sides of unchanged Monday, most notably the energy complex. The spot-month WTI crude oil contract fell as much as $2.15 overnight through early in the morning before rallying to a gain of [...]

Not for the Timid

2020-10-28T14:31:45-05:00October 28th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Well, it’s over, for the most part. Sometimes there are days like Wednesday when the bottom falls out of markets in general. There is a great deal of uncertainty given the upcoming US Presidential Election and Covid case [...]

Time for Tacos

2020-10-27T14:41:02-05:00October 27th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I thought, and thought, trying to come up with a good title for today, and finally landed on the idea it was Taco Tuesday. That’s really the highlight, as markets were actually on the dull side for much [...]

Wicked Day in Wheat

2020-10-26T14:18:34-05:00October 26th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Though I’ll talk about it in more detail below, Monday was a rough start to the week for the wheat complex with Kansas City (HRW) falling 3.1%, Chicago (SRW) dropping 2.0%, and Minneapolis (HRS) losing 2.1%. The energy [...]

That’s All Folks

2020-10-23T14:12:24-05:00October 23rd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: In keeping with the Looney Tunes theme of the day, and a look at the close of the soybean market tells me I might as well, it’s time to bring this week to a close. Most market sectors [...]

All or Nothing

2020-10-21T14:41:13-05:00October 21st, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There weren’t many markets that finished within extremes Wednesday, a day highlighted by a 4.0% selloff in crude oil and RBOB gasoline and an almost 4.0% rally in natural gas. And that’s just the energy complex. Soybean meal [...]

Stampede!

2020-10-20T14:16:25-05:00October 20th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The commodity sector in general raced higher Tuesday, led by a strong reversal in the cattle markets. The first to move was feeder cattle as the November contract did a bullish about-face after testing support at its technical [...]

From C to Shining C

2020-10-19T14:16:03-05:00October 19th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The range of market mood Monday could be best described as the difference between cattle, with live down 3.2% and feeders falling 3.7%, to the cotton’s shiny 1.8% rally. In between we saw corn close 0.8% higher, copper [...]

Fish Fry-Day

2020-10-16T14:31:13-05:00October 16th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I was having a conversation with my friend Neils Christensen from Kitco News Friday, and I made a similar point to him about gold that I did soybeans a couple days ago by mentioning the Benjamin Franklin Fish [...]

Following the Rules

2020-10-15T14:24:11-05:00October 15th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I thought long and hard about what we saw take place across a number of markets Thursday, and the best theme I could come up with was Newsom’s Market Rule #4A. This rule states, “A market that can’t [...]

Time for Commercials

2020-10-14T14:17:16-05:00October 14th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Commercial traders were busy Wednesday in almost every commodity market sector. This group’s buying interest was obvious in lean hogs, soybeans, and corn while selling interest could be seen in live cattle and natural gas. Feeder cattle, crude [...]

A Typical Tuesday

2020-10-13T14:17:43-05:00October 13th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets recovered some of Monday’s moves, not unusual for a Tuesday. Live cattle and feeder cattle were two of the most impressive markets, posting initial rallies before falling to triple-digit losses, only to post strong [...]

Changes

2020-10-09T14:42:48-05:00October 9th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: When the dust had settled on Friday’s session, some markets were showing sharp changes from 24 hours ago, though not like what most think. I’ll get into more detail on grains and oilseeds and USDA below, with other [...]

On Hold

2020-10-08T14:21:20-05:00October 8th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: For the most part, you can file Thursday’s close under “Meaningless” given 99.9% of the industry is anxiously awaiting Friday’s round of monthly USDA Supply and Demand reports (I’ll give you one guess as to who the 0.1% [...]

Runnin’ With the Devil

2020-10-07T14:18:16-05:00October 7th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As a good friend put it in a message to me Wednesday afternoon, “Interesting session in grains and oilseeds”. On one hand we saw the wheat complex continue to run higher, seemingly for no reason whatsoever, while on [...]

One of Those Days

2020-10-06T14:55:09-05:00October 6th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday was one of those days when nearly every market was bullish, the why not mattering at all. Through the early part of the session you couldn’t find a market in the red, though as the day progressed [...]

A Foray Into Rule 4A

2020-10-05T14:36:57-05:00October 5th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Monday was a great example of Newsom’s Market Rule #4A (A market that can’t go down, won’t go down) at work. As I talked about in Weekly Analysis, the energy complex looked to be in position for a [...]

Another Week Over

2020-10-02T14:25:22-05:00October 2nd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: We’ve reached the end of another week, and as a good friend said around mid-morning, “It looks like folks are already checking out for the week.” There was movement in a number of markets, but not a lot [...]

Back to Business

2020-10-01T14:26:39-05:00October 1st, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The turning of the calendar page meant it was time to get back to business, and markets reflected that sentiment with many of them still sitting at the starting gate late in the day. Most notable of these [...]

One of Those Days

2020-09-30T14:30:57-05:00September 30th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday was one of those days when all you could do was just sit back and watch. Almost every sector was flying around, some up and some down. For example, crude oil jumped to a gain of 2% [...]

Some Big Moves, Some Not

2020-09-29T14:17:39-05:00September 29th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday was a mix of boring and exciting markets, with not much happening in between. Silver posted a strong rally with Dec gaining almost 4% ($1.00), making gold’s $20 jump (1.1%) seem lethargic in comparison. Feeder cattle also [...]

Shut it Down

2020-09-25T14:22:57-05:00September 25th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Another week has come and gone, for the most part, with only some financial markets still trading. Commodities ended a mostly bearish weak in the green, led by a strong rally in lean hogs. Here we saw solid [...]

See-Saw Session

2020-09-24T14:42:09-05:00September 24th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Thursday was an odd session with a number of markets bouncing back and forth as the day progressed. Let’s start with the US dollar as it rallied to a new monthly high of 94.59 before falling back into [...]

Silver Sinks Like a Stone

2020-09-23T14:19:16-05:00September 23rd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The spotlight shown bright on silver, and the precious metal continued to melt down with the Dec contract falling $1.60, or about 6.5% for the day. Gold was better, in relative terms, losing only $41 or 2.1% from [...]

Meh

2020-09-22T14:24:48-05:00September 22nd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I gave a good deal of thought to what word best described Tuesday’s activity, and though there were a number of solid contenders, “Meh” seemed to fit the best. By definition it is an adjective meaning uninspiring or [...]

One Day Wonder

2020-09-21T15:58:43-05:00September 21st, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There’s an old market saying I like to repeat at the end of session like what we saw Monday, “One day does not a trend make.” Sometimes meltdowns happen and can soon be forgotten if the respective markets [...]

La Quinta-Ing

2020-09-18T14:16:28-05:00September 18th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Though I’ll be talking more about the subject in my Weekly Column this coming weekend, suffice it to say investment money continues to pour into the commodity sector. A look at the quote screen Friday afternoon shows that [...]

Runaway Train

2020-09-17T14:18:26-05:00September 17th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It was another wild day in the commodity sector, a day highlighted by continued buying almost across the board. The most volatile market continues to be soybeans, a classic example of a Runaway Train market. Corn remains in [...]

Life in a Vacuum

2020-09-16T13:59:00-05:00September 16th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Wednesday provided us a great example of what a market can do in a vacuum, with the subject being soybeans. I’ll go into more detail below but suffice it to say Tuesday’s selling interest quickly evaporated leading to [...]

A Midway Stumble

2020-09-15T14:14:44-05:00September 15th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As hard as it is to believe, we’ve reached the midpoint of September. As if in honor of that milestone, ag markets in general stumbled and fell. The wheat complex was the biggest loser with all three markets [...]

Well, That Was…

2020-09-14T13:55:39-05:00September 14th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: …I want to say interesting, but that’s not the right word. Boring? Too harsh. Quiet? In some cases, but certainly not livestock. Here we saw lean hogs hit by heavy selling, with the Oct-Dec spread indicating most of [...]

Keep Moving Forward

2020-09-11T15:19:17-05:00September 11th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The spotlight was on the lean hog market again Friday, as futures continue to react to Thursday’s story of an African Swine Fever case in Germany, Europe’s “biggest hog-producing nation” and “a key supplier to China”. This goes [...]

Go, Hog. Go!

2020-09-10T14:55:55-05:00September 10th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: All other markets took a back seat to lean hogs Thursday, as the first three contracts raced limit ($3.00) up, while the fourth contract out (April 2021) hit limit but couldn’t lock. Still, this was enough for daily [...]

Another Day

2020-09-09T14:20:21-05:00September 9th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: While some markets made strong moves Wednesday, there wasn’t anything that jumped out at me as extraordinary. Sure, US stock indexes were sharply higher with the S&P 500 up 2.3% and the Nasdaq gaining 3.2%, but this was [...]

A Drop in Energy

2020-09-08T14:17:51-05:00September 8th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Today’s weather across much of the U.S. Plains and Midwest makes one feel like going into hibernation, but that’s not the drop in energy I was referring to with the title. No, what I’m looking at is the [...]

Frosty the Fall Guy

2020-09-04T14:48:04-05:00September 4th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I will admit, I was blissfully unaware there were some in the industry yelling “Frost” and/or “Freeze” into the megaphone Friday until a good friend tipped me off around midday. Back in the day when my desk was [...]

Red Scare

2020-09-03T14:28:55-05:00September 3rd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Thursday was notable for some solid selloffs, none more impressive than what was going on in U.S. stock indexes with just over an hour left before the closing bell. The S&P 500 was down 125 points (3.5%) while [...]

Well That Was Peculiar

2020-09-02T14:42:01-05:00September 2nd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I was trying to think of the right word to describe Wednesday’s session, and “peculiar” seemed the best fit. Every time one turned around, something was changing, and not by just a little bit. I posted a Quick [...]

Winter Leads Fall

2020-09-01T14:12:23-05:00September 1st, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday’s session, with all its twists and turns, turned out to be an interesting first day of meteorological autumn. Leading the way was winter wheat markets as Dec Chicago (SRW) posted a gain of almost 12 cents while [...]

Summer is Over

2020-08-31T14:23:24-05:00August 31st, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Yes, it’s time to turn the calendar page from August to September, marking the end of meteorological summer and the beginning of meteorological fall. Before we watch the last summer sunset of 2020, we saw the rally in [...]

Husband Shopping

2020-08-28T14:10:18-05:00August 28th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Corn and soybean traders resembled the typical husband realizing at the last minute he still needed to buy his significant other a birthday, anniversary, Valentine, or Christmas (feel free to insert any holiday) card and or present. Usually, [...]

Draining Adrenaline

2020-08-27T14:15:25-05:00August 27th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets had that feel to them late Thursday, that feeling when short-term trend changes were either occurring or soon to be seen. After U.S. Fed Chairman Powell talked about interest rates staying at or near [...]

Heating Up

2020-08-25T14:09:45-05:00August 25th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The grain and oilseed complex is caught up in a full-fledged summer weather market with corn (up 2.8%) and soybeans (up 1.6%) rocketing higher Tuesday, pulling the wheat complex along for good measure. Meanwhile, crude oil finally woke [...]

Interesting, In Its Own Way

2020-08-21T14:24:02-05:00August 21st, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The best word I could come up with for Friday’s session was interesting, with this a better description for some markets more than others. Take corn, for example, while the Dec contract closed just over a penny higher [...]

A Fitting End to Wheat Wednesday

2020-08-19T14:30:40-05:00August 19th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There were some big movers Wednesday, most notably gold and silver, but this time to the downside. Gold fell almost $65, or 3.2%, while silver dropped $1.27 or 4.5% (for additional analysis, see Wednesday morning’s Chart of the [...]

A Day Long Siesta

2020-08-18T14:28:04-05:00August 18th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If, like me, you found your interest in Tuesday’s proceedings lacking, spending more time looking at the inside of your eyelids than the quote screen, it was perfectly understandable. Trade volume in general was down across the grain [...]

Another Day, Another Rally

2020-08-17T14:30:54-05:00August 17th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The grain and oilseed complex came out of the weekend with all guns blazing. This wasn’t just the Big Three of Corn, Soybeans, and the Wheat Complex, but less talked about markets of rough rice, oats, and canola [...]

Let’s Talk Silver

2020-08-14T14:04:07-05:00August 14th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: A number of markets didn’t do much Friday, making it easier for us to turn our attention to the always exciting silver market. At last check the more active September contract was down almost $1.50, or roughly 5.3% [...]

That Was Impressive

2020-08-13T14:16:06-05:00August 13th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: Today should’ve been Friday, because the close by the grain and oilseed complex would’ve been a nice way to head into the weekend. Strong buying was seen from the outset with much of the activity tied to commercial [...]

Markets Work

2020-08-12T14:27:00-05:00August 12th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: For those that doubt the ability of markets to work without government interference, Wednesday was a great reminder they can. USDA released generally bearish supply and demand numbers for spring crops, yet soybeans rallied almost a dime and [...]

And Now We Wait

2020-08-11T14:35:06-05:00August 11th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: Corn tried to rally but came back to near unchanged. Soybeans moved lower early, then rallied, before also finishing within fractions of Monday’s close. The wheat complex closed higher but lacked any real enthusiasm over the course of [...]

Bumbles Bounce!

2020-08-10T14:43:47-05:00August 10th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: Yukon Cornelius, of Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer fame, best summed up Monday’s action in corn and soybeans with his emphatic line, “Bumbles bounce!”. Some would argue this is similar to the old standby market tag, “Dead Cat [...]

Silver Linings

2020-08-07T14:15:42-05:00August 7th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: On a day like today we have to look for the positives, the silver linings of the black clouds that seem to be gathering. Grain and oilseeds were lower, cotton took a beating, cattle markets closed in the [...]

Holding Pattern

2020-08-05T14:15:29-05:00August 5th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: Most markets didn’t change much from what was seen early Wednesday morning, though some were able to build on overnight moves. Most notable in the latter group was corn, while soybeans sagged below unchanged early and didn’t recover. [...]

Contract Killer

2020-08-04T14:19:49-05:00August 4th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: Tuesday saw some key contracts hit new lifetime lows, a bearish sign but certainly within boundaries of normal seasonal tendencies. Most notable in this group was one of the three Kings of Commodities, new-crop December corn as it [...]

A Mixed Start to the Month

2020-08-03T14:51:06-05:00August 3rd, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: Monday seemed to be a feeling out session for corn and soybeans with neither market able to accomplish much. The weather was largely benign with the morning starting off cooler than normal for early August. Meanwhile, weather maps [...]

Done and Done

2020-07-31T14:35:41-05:00July 31st, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: With closing bells ringing for the various markets Friday afternoon, another week and month has come to an end. The grain and oilseed complex was relatively quiet over the course of the day, though markets were generally able [...]

That’s a Bold Move, Cotton

2020-07-30T14:42:06-05:00July 30th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: Thursday afternoon saw some interesting market moves, none more than the strong 1.50 rally by December cotton. Here we saw a strong round of commercial buying, with a weakening carry seen all across the 2020-2021 forward curve. Similar [...]

Commercial Break

2020-07-29T14:15:58-05:00July 29th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: Commercial traders took control of ag markets Wednesday with solid selling seen in corn, soybeans, live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hogs. Meanwhile, this same group was buying wheat, most notably winter markets. Cotton saw moderate noncommercial buying [...]

Whoa!

2020-07-28T14:34:35-05:00July 28th, 2020|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: It was hard to the put the brakes on the grain and oilseed complex Tuesday, noted for corn finding increased pressure heading into the close and wheat finally giving in to spillover selling from the Big Two markets. [...]

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