Cash Corn: The weekly close-only chart for the Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) still looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend despite last week's higher close. The downside target remains near $5.99, and [...]
Cash Soybeans: The Barchart National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) is in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, posting a new 4-week low weekly close at Friday’s calculation of $14.3834. The major (long-term) trend of cash soybeans remains [...]
Kansas City (HRW): July Kansas City wheat’s minor (short-term) trend on the contract’s daily chart remains up. The minor upside target range is between $8.29 and $8.44. Theoretical Positions: Theoretically, long-term short hedges may have been established near the weekly close [...]
Live Cattle: June live cattle extend its secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend to a low of $155.70, with an initial downside target near $154.30. This left the contract oversold short-term and in position for a move to a minor uptrend. If so, [...]
Cotton: May cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend with the next downside target near 74.45. Theoretical Positions: New short positions could’ve been put in place with the move to a new 4-week low of 82.20. Coffee: May coffee remains in [...]
Brent crude (QA): The market turned down last week as the spot-month contract broke trendline support. This not projects a downside target near $69.85. Additionally, the market took out its previous 4-week low of $80.34 on its way to $71.35. Theoretical [...]
Gold: I don't know what to make of April gold's weekly chart. My Blink reaction is to call it an uptrend after the contract gapped higher last week before taking out its previous high of $1,975.20. On the other hand, [...]
Cash Corn: The weekly close-only chart for the Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) shows a bearish breakout last week. Given the previous range was roughly 50 cents, from $6.99 to $6.49, the downside target [...]
Cash Soybeans: The Barchart National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) is in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, posting a new 4-week low weekly close at Friday's calculation of $14.6771. The major (long-term) trend of cash soybeans remains [...]
Kansas City (HRW): I don't know what to make of the July Kansas City wheat's secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the contract's weekly chart, but the minor (short-term) trend on the daily chart looks to have turned up. Friday saw the [...]
Live Cattle: June live cattle fell to a new 4-week low last week, confirming a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. The initial downside target is near $154.30, then $151.95. Theoretical Positions: If secondary short positions were established just below the previous 4-week low, [...]
Cotton: May cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend with the next downside target at 77.62. Theoretical Positions: New short positions could’ve been put in place with the move to a new 4-week low of 82.20. Coffee: May coffee remains in [...]
Brent crude (QA): The market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend between the high of $89.10 and low of $79.09. An upside breakout projects a target of roughly $99.10 while a downside breakout projects a move to near $69.10. [...]
Gold: April gold extended its minor (short-term) uptrend with the move beyond $1,864.30 confirming Wave 3 of the 5-wave pattern. This should still be considered Wave B (second wave) of the 3-wave secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. The short-term upside target area [...]
Cash Corn: The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) is in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways-to-down trend after falling to a new 4-week low last week. Theoretical Positions: Merchandisers could continue to cover on an as [...]
Soybeans: For the second consecutive week, May soybeans completed a bearish spike reversal, again indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down. Initial support is at the previous 4-week low of $15.0025. Theoretical Positions: Short positions could be established near last [...]
Kansas City (HRW): Despite last week's selloff the new-crop July contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly chart. The ongoing minor (short-term) downtrend looks to be a down wave within the secondary pattern. Theoretical Positions: Theoretically, long-term short [...]
Live Cattle: April live cattle extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a high of $166.40 last week. Initial support is at the 4-week low of $160.95. Theoretical Positions: No reversal pattern has been completed, lately, and implied volatility is low. [...]
Cotton: May cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, though the minor (short-term) trend turned up last week. This move is considered Wave B (second wave) of the secondary 3-wave pattern with an upside target near 86.10. Theoretical Positions: New short [...]
Brent crude (QA): While I still see a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on Brent’s weekly chart, a solid argument could be made for a sideways trend between the recent high of $89.10 and low of $79.09. Theoretical Positions: Some new longs may [...]
Gold: April gold extended its secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend to a low of $1,815.50. The next secondary downside target is $1,772.80. I'm still expecting a minor (short-term) uptrend at some point, a move that would be considered Wave B (second wave) [...]
Cash Corn: The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend with resistance at the high near $6.92 and support at the 4-week low of $6.64. Theoretical Positions: Merchandisers could [...]
Soybeans: May soybeans competed another bearish spike reversal last week, once again indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down. Initial support is at the previous 4-week low of $14.76. Theoretical Positions: Short positions could be established near last Friday's close [...]
Kansas City (HRW): The new-crop July contract extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a high of $8.9425 last week. Given new-crop futures spreads are inverted, meaning long-term fundamentals are bullish, the upside target area is between $9.03 and $9.2750 with [...]
Live Cattle: April live cattle extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a high of $165.40 last week. However, the contract's candlestick chart shows a doji pattern (weekly open and close roughly the same price) indicating indecision. Initial support is at the [...]
Cotton: May cotton confirmed a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend as it posted a new 4-week low below 82.21 last week. The minor (short-term) trend is set to turn up on the contract's daily chart, a move that would be considered Wave [...]
Brent crude (QA): While I still see a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on Brent's weekly chart, a solid argument could be made for a sideways trend between the 4-week high of $89.10 and 4-week low of $79.09. Theoretical Positions: Some new longs [...]
Gold: April gold remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. However, the minor (short-term) trend on the contract's daily chart looks to have turned up, a move that would be considered Wave B (second wave) of the secondary 3-wave downtrend pattern. [...]
Cash Corn: The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend with resistance at the 4-week high near $6.92. The NCPI could be building a bullish wedge based on a [...]
Soybeans: I’m going to call March soybeans’ secondary (intermediate-term) trend sideways-to-down. The contract completed a bearish spike reversal recently before falling to test trend line support. Last week saw the contract test its recent high of $15.4850 with a mark [...]
Kansas City (HRW): The new-crop July contract extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a high of $8.7450 last week. However, the minor (short-term) trend turned down last week as the contract completed a bearish key reversal Thursday. The minor downside [...]
Live Cattle: April live cattle extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a high of $164.125 last week. Initial support is at the 4-week low of $158.55. Theoretical Positions: Short April futures positions would've been stopped out above the recent high of [...]
Cotton: March cotton continues to show a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways-to-up pattern. However, there is still solid resistance at the double top near 89.90. A bullish breakout would project an upside target near 96.20. Theoretical Positions: Longs could’ve been put in place [...]
Brent crude (QA): Last week's selloff looks to be Wave 4 of a condensed 5-wave secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. If so, the selloff needs to hold above the Wave 2 low of $77.61. A move below that mark should trigger and [...]
Gold: April gold completed a bearish key reversal last week, confirming the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down. This pattern confirmed the bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above 80% the previous week. The downside target area is between $1,850.10 and [...]
Cash Corn: I’ve pulled the analysis for the Barchart National Corn Price Index this week due to an error on its weekly chart. Theoretical Positions: Long-term short cash corn. Merchandisers could continue to cover cash on an as needed basis, [...]
Soybeans: I'm going to call March soybeans' secondary (intermediate-term) trend sideways-to-down. The contract completed a bearish spike reversal the previous week before falling to test trend line support last week. Theoretical Positions: Long March positions may have been lifted near the [...]
Kansas City (HRW): The new-crop July contract extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a high of $8.5550 last week. Next resistance could be the previous high of $8.8025. Theoretical Positions: Theoretically, long-term short hedges may have been established near the weekly [...]
Live Cattle: April live cattle still look to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, with confirmation the recent move to a new 4-week low below $159.225. The initial downside target is between $154.80 and $152.35. Theoretical Positions: Short April futures positions [...]
Cotton: March cotton continues to show a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways-to-up pattern. However, there is still solid resistance at the double top near 89.90. A bullish breakout would project an upside target near 96.20. Theoretical Positions: Longs could’ve been put in place [...]
Brent crude (QA): Brent crude remains in a somewhat disjointed secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Last week saw the contract complete a bearish spike reversal indicating Wave 3 of the 5-wave secondary pattern may have peaked. The market's minor (short-term) trend on [...]
Gold: April gold extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a high of $1,966.50 last week. However, weekly stochastics established a bearish crossover above 90% the previous week, indicating the secondary trend was set to turn down. The futures contract came [...]
The April lean hogs contract continues to hold above support at its previous low of $82.625 from the week of October 3, 2022. The contract posted a new low of $84.00 for this selloff, meaning a higher weekly close would [...]
The market soybean meal contract completed a bearish key reversal on its weekly chart last week, confirming the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down. This move was signaled the previous week as weekly stochastics established a bearish crossover above 80%. [...]
March soybean meal completed a bearish spike reversal on its weekly chart last week, in conjunction with another bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. This means the contract both signaled (stochastics) and confirmed (reversal pattern) [...]
Cash Corn: I've pulled the analysis for the Barchart National Corn Price Index this week due to an error on its weekly chart. Theoretical Positions: Long-term short cash corn. Merchandisers could continue to cover cash on an as needed basis, [...]
Soybeans: The March contract fell last week, though I don't see a clear reversal pattern completed. Technically, this leaves the secondary (intermediate-term) trend up. Theoretical Positions: Long January futures were rolled to March prior to delivery. Stops for long March futures [...]
Kansas City (HRW): The March contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend with resistance at the 4-week high of $8.9475 and support the recent low of $8.2175. Theoretical Positions: Shorts may have been established near $9.5075, the close the week [...]
Live Cattle: February live cattle still look to be in the process of establishing a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Initial support is at the previous 4-week low of $154.675 with resistance at the 4-week high of $159.175. Theoretical Positions: If longs were [...]
Cotton: March cotton is showing an interesting pattern on its weekly chart with what looks to be a double-top near 89.92. The interim low is 77.50, creating a range of roughly 12.40. A bullish breakout would then project an extended [...]
Brent crude (QA): Brent crude still looks to be in the process of establishing a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its continuous weekly chart. The key will be the spot-month contract's ability to hold support at its previous 4-week low of [...]
Gold: February gold extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a high of $1,875.20 last week. The contract is sharply overbought, with weekly stochastics above 90%. Still, there is no clear bearish reversal pattern, though one is possible this coming week. [...]
Cash Corn: The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend. Long-term support is at the September low of $6.3708. Theoretical Positions: Long-term short cash corn. Merchandisers could continue to [...]
Soybeans: The March contract extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a high of $15.3750 last week. Weekly stochastics are well above the overbought level of 80%. Theoretical Positions: Long January futures were rolled to March prior to delivery. Stops for long [...]
Kansas City (HRW): The March contract could confirm a new secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend with a move to a new 4-week high next week. The mark is last week's high of $8.9475 before the contract closed Friday at $8.88. Theoretical Positions: Shorts [...]
Live Cattle: Using a weekly candlestick chart for February live cattle and the contract looks to have completed a shooting star last week. This tends to signal a top has been put in place. I do not have a clear [...]
Cotton: March cotton is showing an interesting patter on its weekly chart with what looks to be a double-top near 89.92. The interim low is 77.50, creating a range of roughly 12.40. A bullish breakout would then project an extended [...]
WTI crude oil (CL): The secondary (intermediate-term) trend could still be considered sideways as the February contract holds between the previous 4-week high of $82.72 and 4-week low of $70.08. The minor (short-term) trend remains up with a move beyond the [...]
Gold: Despite weekly stochastics showing the February contract to already be in an overbought situation, the market extended its previous secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a high of $1,841.90. However, the close back below the previous mark of $1,836.90 leaves open [...]
Cash Corn: The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) is showing a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend. Long-term support is at the September low of $6.3708 with last Friday’s calculation coming in at $6.62.38. Theoretical Positions: [...]
Kansas City (HRW): The secondary trend looks to be moving sideways as March Kansas City wheat continues to hold above its previous low of $8.1175. Weekly stochastics established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% at last week's [...]
Soybeans: I'm going to stick with the January futures contract one last week given Theoretical Positions would still have long positions. Jan beans continue to show a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend though stochastics re nearing the overbought level of 80%. Also, [...]
Live Cattle: The February contract is in a sideways pattern between the recent high $157.225 and the low of $152.275. Weekly stochastics are near the overbought level of 80%. Theoretical Positions: Longs could be established on a bullish breakout of [...]
Cotton: March cotton remains in Wave 3 of its 5-wave secondary (intermediate-term) with initial resistance at the Wave 1 peak of 89.92. The next upside target area is between 92.14 and 98.95. Theoretical Positions: Longs could've been put in place [...]
WTI crude oil (CL): The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways on the market's continuous weekly chart after holding within the previous week's range last week. Weekly stochastics remain below the oversold level of 20% with the most recent signal a [...]
Gold: The February contract completed a bearish spike reversal on its weekly chart last week, confirming a move to a new secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. This reversal pattern coincided with a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of [...]
Cash Corn: The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) is showing a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend. Long-term support is at the September low of $6.3708 with last Friday’s calculation coming in at $6.4937. Theoretical Positions: [...]
Kansas City (HRW): The March contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend after posting a new 4-week low of $8.2175 last week. Longer-term support is at the low of $8.1175 from the week of August 15. Theoretical Positions: Shorts may [...]
Soybeans: The January contract extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a new 4-week high of $14.9275 last week. The next upside target is the previous high of $15.1225 from the week of September 12. Theoretical Positions: If long, stops would [...]
Live Cattle: The February contract is in a sideways pattern between the recent high $157.225 and the low of $152.275. Weekly stochastics are near the oversold bought level of 80%. Theoretical Positions: Longs could be established on a bullish breakout [...]
Cotton: Despite last week's lower close the February contract still looks to be moving into Wave 3 of its 5-wave secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Initial resistance is at the Wave 1 peak of 89.92. The next upside target area is between [...]
Brent crude (QA): The market extended its previous secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend last week. Seasonally the market should be approaching a bullish turn while weekly stochastics below 10% indicate a sharply oversold station. Theoretical Positions: Recently established longs would've been stopped out [...]
Gold: The February contract continues to show a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly chart. However, the last two weeks have seen the contract post a high near the initial target of $1,820.22, and with weekly stochastics sharply overbought the [...]
Cash Corn: The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) is showing a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend. Initial support is at the previous 4-week low of $6.5053 with last Friday's calculation coming in at $6.5223. Theoretical [...]
Soybeans: The January contract is tough. Last week saw it post a bullish breakout of its consolidation pattern that included a new 4-week high beyond $14.69, This likely triggered some fresh buying before the contract fell back into its previous [...]
Kansas City (HRW): The March contract looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend after posting a new 4-week low of $8.6025 last week. Longer-term support is at the low of $8.1175 from the week of August 15. Theoretical Positions: [...]
Live Cattle: The February contract is in a sideways pattern between the recent high $157.225 and the low of $152.275. Weekly stochastics are near the oversold bought level of 80%. Theoretical Positions: Longs could be established on a bullish breakout [...]
Cotton: The February contract looks to be moving into Wave 3 of its 5-wave secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Initial resistance is at the Wave 1 peak of 89.92. The next upside target area is between 92.14 and 98.95. Theoretical Positions: New [...]
Brent crude (QA): The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to have turned up last week as the spot-month contract completed a bullish spike reversal. Initial resistance is up at the previous 4-week high of $99.56. Theoretical Positions: Longs could be established [...]
Gold: The February contract continues to show a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly chart with the next upside target at $1,861.20. Weekly stochastics are in overbought territory setting the stage for a bearish crossover in the near future. Theoretical [...]
Analysis The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to have turned down again The spot-month contract posted a new 4-week low the week of November 14, and again the week of November 21 Overnight through early Monday morning the spot-month contract has [...]
Theoretical Positions Hedgers Could be short just below $185.90 from the week of August 29, as a new 4-week low was established Traders Could be intermediate-term short near $185.90 from the week of August 29 These positions were stopped out [...]
Theoretical Positions Hedgers Could be short-hedged most of 2022 production near 125.18 This was the close the week of May 16 when the contract completed a bearish spike reversal indicating the secondary trend had turned down Could be short-hedged a [...]
Theoretical Positions Hedgers The balance of unhedged or unsold 2022 bushes can be held in anticipation of a fall/winter rally in the cash market Expected 2022 production could be mostly priced, roughly 75%, based on the major key bearish reversal [...]
Theoretical Positions Hedgers Expected 2022 production could be mostly priced (roughly 75%, or the amount insured), based on the major (long-term) bearish spike reversal by the Dec22 contract at the end of May, with a closing price of $7.1150 Others [...]
Theoretical Positions Hedgers: Some hedges may have been put in place when December took out the previous week’s low of $149.875 Others might’ve short-hedged when the contract posted a new 4-week low below $148.375 Or some might’ve sold on the [...]
Theoretical Positions Hedgers Could be short-hedged most of 2022 production near 125.18 This was the close the week of May 16 when the contract completed a bearish spike reversal indicating the secondary trend had turned down Could be short-hedged a [...]
Theoretical Positions Hedgers 2022 production should be sold out Those wanting to renown could might’ve bought near the recent weekly close of $9.2925 Based on a bullish breakout and bullish long-term fundamentals But beware the Krampus Calendar (tied to the [...]
Theoretical Positions Hedgers The balance of unhedged or unsold 2022 bushes can be held in anticipation of a fall/winter rally in the cash market Expected 2022 production could be mostly priced, roughly 75%, based on the major key bearish reversal [...]
