Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-12-27T07:23:33-06:00December 27th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Market Type: 9 (Most Bullish) Secondary Trend: Up March corn has moved to new 4-week highs the last three weeks, including early Monday morning already. Look for the noncommercial net-long futures position to increase in Monday's holiday-delayed CFTC Commitments of [...]

Weekly Analysis: Soybeans

2021-11-23T08:44:53-06:00November 23rd, 2021|Oilseeds, Weekly Analysis|

Market Type: 8 (Neutral-to-Bullish) Secondary Trend: Up Futures contracts confirmed the recent move to secondary (intermediate-term) uptrends with new 4-week highs last week. Noncommercial traders added 19,333 contracts to their net-long futures position as of Tuesday, November 16 Including a [...]

Weekly Analysis: Soybeans

2021-11-15T09:26:49-06:00November 15th, 2021|Oilseeds, Weekly Analysis|

Market Type: 8 (Neutral-to-Bullish) Secondary Trend: Up The January futures contract posted a bullish spike reversal last week, confirming a move to a new secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Initial resistance is at the 4-week high of $12.6625 Fundamentals: Neutral-Bullish The cmdty National [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-11-08T05:10:23-06:00November 8th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Market Type: 9 (Most Bullish) Secondary Trend: Up However, the minor (short-term) trend turned down last week. This looks to be Wave 4 of the 5-wave secondary uptrend pattern. Noncommercial traders added an incredible 75,299 contracts to their net-long futures [...]

Weekly Analysis: Cotton

2021-11-01T08:39:02-05:00November 1st, 2021|Softs|

Market Type: 9 (Most Bullish) Secondary Trend: Up December extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a new high of $1.19 overnight through early Monday morning. The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders decreasing their net-long futures [...]

Weekly Analysis: Soybeans

2021-10-31T15:42:54-05:00October 31st, 2021|Oilseeds, Weekly Analysis|

Market Type: 5 (Neutral) Secondary Trend: Sideways The January futures contract is trending sideways, though leaning toward a bullish breakout beyond its previous 4-week high of $12.7375. Fundamentals: Neutral-Bullish My calculation of national average basis last Friday was 49.4 cents under [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-10-31T15:22:37-05:00October 31st, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Market Type: 9 (Most Bullish) Secondary Trend: Up Once the December contract cleared the previous high of $5.4850 it confirmed Wave 3 of its secondary uptrend. Noncommercial traders added 30,780 contracts to their net-long futures poison, an even mix of [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-09-12T16:10:57-05:00September 12th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Market: Type 3 (less bearish) The secondary trend is down, though it completed its patter with a move to $5.00 last week. Noncommercial traders decreased their net-long futures by 36,395 contracts for the week ending Tuesday, September 7 This included [...]

Weekly Analysis: Cotton

2021-08-05T16:00:53-05:00August 5th, 2021|Softs|

Market Type: 9 (Most Bullish) Trends Secondary (intermediate-term): Up (Contra-seasonal) Dec cotton posted a new contract high of 91.00 the week of July 26 before closing 0.27 lower for the week This raises the question of a possible bearish spike [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-07-26T11:15:45-05:00July 26th, 2021|Grain|

Market Type: 3 (Less Bearish) Trends Secondary (intermediate-term): Down (3-wave pattern) Bearish 2-week reversal on weekly charts the weeks of May 3 and May 10. New 4-week lows the week of May 24 Wave B (second wave) of topped week [...]

Weekly Analysis: Soybeans

2021-07-26T08:27:33-05:00July 26th, 2021|Oilseeds|

Market Type: 3 (Less Bearish) Trends Secondary (intermediate-term): Down (3-wave pattern) The contract broke below trendline support at $13.65 early in Sunday's overnight session This completes the bear flag pattern And projects a pattern downside target of $11.61 Not this [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-07-12T05:13:47-05:00July 12th, 2021|Grain|

Market Type: 3 (Less Bearish) Trends Secondary (intermediate-term): Down (3-wave pattern) Bearish 2-week reversal on weekly charts the weeks of May 3 and May 10. New 4-week lows the week of May 24 Wave B (second wave) of topped week [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-06-28T10:43:24-05:00June 28th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Market Type: 3 (Less Bearish) Trends Major (long-term): Down Bearish spike reversal on monthly charts are end of May Secondary (intermediate-term): Down (3-wave pattern) Bearish 2-week reversal on weekly charts the weeks of May 3 and May 10. New 4-week [...]

Weekly Analysis: HRW Wheat

2021-06-23T17:05:54-05:00June 23rd, 2021|Weekly Analysis, Wheat|

Market Type: 1 (Most Bearish) Trends Major (long-term): Down Bearish spike reversal on monthly charts are end of May Secondary (intermediate-term): Down (3-wave pattern) The cmdty National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) looks to be [...]

Weekly Analysis: Soybeans

2021-06-22T07:19:41-05:00June 22nd, 2021|Oilseeds, Weekly Analysis|

Market Type: 3 (Less Bearish) Trends Major (long-term): Down Bearish spike reversal on monthly charts at end of May Secondary (intermediate-term): Down (3-wave pattern) New 4-week lows the week of June 14 Target area (Nov soybeans) between $12.3025 and $11.5325 [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-06-21T07:42:02-05:00June 21st, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Market Type: 3 (Less Bearish) Trends Major (long-term): Down Bearish spike reversal on monthly charts are end of May Secondary (intermediate-term): Down (3-wave pattern) Bearish 2-week reversal on weekly charts the weeks of May 3 and May 10. New 4-week [...]

Weekly Analysis: Wheat

2021-05-16T16:03:36-05:00May 16th, 2021|Weekly Analysis, Wheat|

Kansas City HRW Wheat (July) Secondary Trend: Down Futures Spreads: NeutralMarket Type: 2, Bearish Analysis: July Kansas City wheat established a bearish 2-week reversal pattern on its weekly chart, indicating its secondary trend has turned down. Sales of both the [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-05-16T15:21:16-05:00May 16th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Cash and Old-corp July Trend Minor (short-term): Down Secondary (intermediate-term): Down Target area between $5.8650 and $5.4075 Noncommercial traders reduced their net-long futures position by 35,290 for the week ending Tuesday, May 11 Major (long-term): Could be changing cmdty National [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-05-09T14:57:45-05:00May 9th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Cash Corn (cmdty National Corn Price Index)  Secondary Trend: Up National Average Basis: Bullish, 14.5 cents over July (1.7 cents weaker for the week) Market Type: 9, Most Bullish Analysis: Cash corn still looks incredibly bullish, though the slightly weaker national [...]

Weekly Analysis: Oilseeds

2021-05-09T14:39:26-05:00May 9th, 2021|Oilseeds, Weekly Analysis|

Old-Crop Soybeans (July) Secondary Trend: Up Futures Spreads: Inverted, Bullish Market Type: 9, Most Bullish Analysis: July soybeans posted a new contract high of $15.9950 last week. This puts initial support this coming week at the previous 4-week low of [...]

Weekly Analysis: Wheat

2021-05-09T13:18:39-05:00May 9th, 2021|Weekly Analysis, Wheat|

Kansas City HRW Wheat (July) Secondary Trend: Up Futures Spreads: Weak Carry, Bullish Market Type: 9, Most Bullish Analysis: July Kansas City wheat extended its secondary uptrend to a new contract high of $7.4150. Support continues to come from the [...]

Weekly Analysis: Livestock

2021-05-09T12:46:53-05:00May 9th, 2021|Livestock and Dairy, Weekly Analysis|

Live Cattle June 2021 Secondary Trend: Down Futures Spreads: June-August (-$2.825), Bearish Market Type: 1, Most Bearish Analysis: June live cattle extended its secondary downtrend to a low of $112.575 last week before rallying. This sets the stage for a [...]

Weekly Analysis: Cotton and Sugar

2021-05-09T12:19:22-05:00May 9th, 2021|Softs, Weekly Analysis|

Old-Crop Cotton (July) Secondary Trend: Down Futures Spreads: NA (May contract is in delivery) Market Type: NA (Though basis could be used as the fundamental read) Analysis: July cotton still looks to be in a secondary downtrend on its weekly [...]

Weekly Analysis: Energies

2021-05-09T11:52:51-05:00May 9th, 2021|Energies, Weekly Analysis|

Crude Oil  Secondary Trend: Down Futures Spreads: Inverted, Bullish Market Type: 7, Less Bearish Analysis: The recent minor (short-term) uptrend looks to be Wave B of the secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend pattern. If so, Wave C would be expected to [...]

Weekly Analysis: Metals

2021-05-09T11:35:49-05:00May 9th, 2021|Metals, Weekly Analysis|

Gold (June) Secondary Trend: Up Futures Spreads: Carry, Neutral-to-Bearish Market Type: 2 or 3, Bullish to Less Bullish Analysis: The next upside target on June gold's weekly chart I between $1,842.90 and $1,894.40. I'm not looking for much beyond that, [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-04-25T16:30:33-05:00April 25th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Market Type: 9, Most Bullish Secondary Trend: Up Futures Spreads: Bullish. New-crop showing a small carry still covering less than 33% calculated full commercial carry. Basis: Bullish. Next week: Trends are up for the various timeframes (minor, secondary, major) for [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-04-05T07:46:56-05:00April 5th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Cash Corn: National Corn Price Index (NCPI) Weekly Close: $5.4679, up 8.52 cents Secondary Trend: Up Basis: Bullish. Calculated at 12.96 cents under May futures, 1.27 cents stronger than the previous Friday. Analysis: Eliminating the noise and focusing on the [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-03-27T10:38:27-05:00March 27th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Cash Corn: National Corn Price Index (NCPI) Weekly Close: $5.3827, down 3.98 cents Secondary Trend: Sideways-to-Down Basis: Bullish. Calculated at 14.23 cents under May futures, 1.26 cents stronger for the week Analysis: The most recent technical pattern posted by the [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-03-20T11:50:23-05:00March 20th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Cash Corn: National Corn Price Index (NCPI) Weekly Close: $5.4225, down 19.43 cents Secondary Trend: Sideways-to-Down Basis: Bullish. Calculated at 15.49 cents under May futures Analysis: The most recent technical pattern posted by the NCPI is a bearish key reversal [...]

Weekly Analysis: Wheat

2021-03-20T11:33:06-05:00March 20th, 2021|Weekly Analysis, Wheat|

Cash HRW Wheat: National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI) Weekly Close: $5.5325, down 17.45 cents Basis: Bullish. Calculated at 32.25 cents under May Kansas City futures, 0.54 cent stronger than the previous week. Secondary Trend: Down Analysis: The HWPI extended [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-03-14T16:17:08-05:00March 14th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Cash Corn: National Corn Price Index (NCPI) Weekly Close: $5.2282, down 6.42 cents Secondary Trend: Down Basis: Bullish. Calculated at 16.18 cents under May futures Analysis: The most recent technical pattern posted by the NCPI is a bearish key reversal [...]

Weekly Analysis: Energies

2021-03-14T13:44:52-05:00March 14th, 2021|Energies|

Crude Oil  Weekly Close: $65.61, down $0.48 Trends: Major (long-term) = Up, Secondary (intermediate-term) = Down*, Minor (short-term) = Down Analysis: The spot-month contract posted a new high of $67.98 last week before closing lower. Theoretically this established a bearish [...]

Weekly Analysis: Metals

2021-03-14T13:21:50-05:00March 14th, 2021|Metals, Weekly Analysis|

Gold (April) Weekly Close: $1,719.80, up $21.30 Trends: Major (long-term) = Down, Secondary (intermediate-term) = Up, Minor (short-term) = Up Analysis: April gold extended its secondary downtrend to a low of $1,673.30 before closing higher, establishing a bullish spike reversal. [...]

Weekly Analysis: Wheat

2021-03-08T09:51:13-06:00March 8th, 2021|Weekly Analysis, Wheat|

New-Crop Kansas City Wheat Futures: July 2021 Weekly Close: $6.3175, down 6.0 cents Secondary Trend: Sideways-to-down Noncommercial Position (as of Tuesday, March 2): 52,064 contracts net-long, up 2,857 contracts July-September Futures Spread: 5.25 cents carry, 42% calculated full commercial carry, [...]

Weekly Analysis: Cotton and Sugar

2021-03-08T09:29:07-06:00March 8th, 2021|Softs, Weekly Analysis|

Old-Crop Cotton Futures: May 2021 Weekly Close: 87.76, down 1.07 cents Secondary Trend: Down Noncommercial Position (as of Tuesday, March 2): 91,575 contracts net-long, down 5,453 contracts May-July Futures Spread: 0.91 cent carry, Neutral-to-Bearish Analysis: May cotton followed through on [...]

Weekly Analysis: Soybeans

2021-03-08T09:11:13-06:00March 8th, 2021|Oilseeds, Weekly Analysis|

Cash Soybeans: National Soybean Price Index (NSPI) Weekly Close: $13.9402, up 28.68 cents Basis: Bullish. Calculated at 35.97 cents under May futures Secondary Trend: Up Analysis: The NSPI posted a new 4-week high and new 4-month high last week, extending [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-03-08T08:55:54-06:00March 8th, 2021|Grain|

Cash Corn: National Corn Price Index (NCPI) Weekly Close: $5.2924, down 2.02 cents Secondary Trend: Down Basis: Neutral-Bullish. Calculated at 16.25 cents under March futures Analysis: The most recent technical pattern posted by the NCPI is a bearish key reversal [...]

Weekly Analysis: Livestock

2021-03-08T08:39:11-06:00March 8th, 2021|Livestock and Dairy|

Live Cattle April 2021 Weekly Close: $119.025, down $0.975 Secondary Trend: Down Noncommercial Position (as of Tuesday, March 2): Net-long 83,632 contracts, down 5,875 contracts April-June Futures Spread: Bearish. $1.025, down $0.55 for the week. Analysis: April live cattle continued [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-02-15T17:24:47-06:00February 15th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Cash Corn: National Corn Price Index (NCPI) Weekly Close: $5.1782, down 9.15 cents Secondary Trend: Down Basis: Neutral. Calculated at 20.9 cents under March futures Analysis: The NCPI posted a bearish key reversal on its weekly chart, a pattern indicating [...]

Weekly Analysis: Wheat

2021-02-15T14:23:41-06:00February 15th, 2021|Weekly Analysis, Wheat|

Cash HRW Wheat: National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI) Weekly Close: $5.8491, down 8.29 cents Basis: Bullish. Calculated at 31.8 cents under March Kansas City futures Secondary Trend: Sideways-to-down Analysis: The HWPI continues to look vulnerable to a move into [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-02-07T16:18:16-06:00February 7th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Corn (Cash, Old-Crop Futures, New-Crop Futures) Secondary (Intermediate-term) Trend: Up Noncommercial Futures Position (as of Tuesday, February 2): Net-long 528,514 contracts, a decrease of 19,163 contracts from the previous week. Basis: Neutral. Calculated at 21.5 cents under March futures as [...]

Weekly Analysis: Soybeans

2021-02-07T16:01:05-06:00February 7th, 2021|Oilseeds, Weekly Analysis|

Soybeans (Cash, Old-Crop Futures, New-Crop Futures): Secondary (Intermediate-term) Trend: Sideways Noncommercial Futures Position (as of Tuesday, February 2): Net-long 242,222 contracts, an increase of 5,789 contracts from the previous week. Basis: Bullish. Calculated at 43.0 cents under March futures as [...]

Weekly Analysis: Wheat

2021-02-07T15:46:24-06:00February 7th, 2021|Weekly Analysis, Wheat|

Wheat (HRW, SRW, and HRS): Secondary (Intermediate-term) Trend: Sideways Noncommercial Futures Position (as of Tuesday, February 2): All wheat net-long 102,963 contracts, a decrease of 7,768 contracts from the previous week. Basis: HRW Bullish, HRS and SRW Neutral. Futures Spreads: [...]

Weekly Analysis: Livestock

2021-02-07T15:27:31-06:00February 7th, 2021|Livestock and Dairy, Weekly Analysis|

Live Cattle April 2021 Weekly Close: $123.775, up $1.925 Secondary Trend: Up Noncommercial Position (as of Tuesday, February 2): Net-long 79,195 contracts, up 4,765 contracts April-June Futures Spread: Bearish. $3.80, down $0.425 for the week. Analysis: Despite continued bearish underlying [...]

Weekly Analysis: Softs

2021-02-07T14:45:38-06:00February 7th, 2021|Softs, Weekly Analysis|

Cotton  (Old-Crop Futures, New-Crop Futures): Minor (short-term) Trend: Sideways Secondary (intermediate-term) Trend: Up Noncommercial Futures Position (as of 02/02/21): Net-long 73,905, a decrease of 4,321 contracts from the previous week. Futures Spreads: Bearish. The March-May spread closed at a carry [...]

Weekly Analysis: Energies

2021-02-07T14:23:19-06:00February 7th, 2021|Energies, Weekly Analysis|

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Close: $56.85, up $4.65. Secondary Trend: Up. Spot Spread: $0.15 (inverse) = Bullish. Market Type: 9 = Most Bullish. Price Distribution: Lower 44%. Target: None at this time. Analysis: Crude oil is in a similar position [...]

Weekly Analysis: Wheat

2021-01-24T15:26:16-06:00January 24th, 2021|Weekly Analysis, Wheat|

Wheat (HRW, SRW, and HRS): Minor (Short-term) Trend: Down (as of Tuesday, January 22) Secondary (Intermediate-term) Trend: Sideways (as of Friday, January 22) Major (Long-term) Trend: Up Noncommercial Futures Position (as of 01/19/21): All wheat net-long 117,535 contracts, an increase [...]

Weekly Analysis: Soybeans

2021-01-24T14:41:25-06:00January 24th, 2021|Oilseeds, Weekly Analysis|

Soybeans (Cash, Old-Crop Futures, New-Crop Futures): Minor (Short-term) Trend: Down (as of Tuesday, January 19) Secondary (Intermediate-term) Trend: Down (as of Friday, January 22) Major (Long-term) Trend: Up* Noncommercial Futures Position (as of 01/19/21): Net-long 22,687 contracts, a decrease of [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-01-24T14:01:27-06:00January 24th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Corn (Cash, Old-Crop Futures, New-Crop Futures): Minor (Short-term) Trend: Down (as of Tuesday, January 19) Secondary (Intermediate-term) Trend: Down (as of Friday, January 22) Major (Long-term) Trend: Up* Noncommercial Futures Position (as of 01/19/21): Net-long 528,651 contracts, a decrease of [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-01-18T10:39:58-06:00January 18th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Corn (Cash, Old-Crop Futures, New-Crop Futures): Secondary Trend: Up Major Trend: Up Noncommercial Futures Position (as of 01/12/21): Net-long 542,123 contracts, an increase of 21,026 contracts from the previous week. Basis: Bullish but weakening. Calculated at 22.0 cents under March [...]

Weekly Analysis: Corn

2021-01-10T11:08:36-06:00January 10th, 2021|Grain, Weekly Analysis|

Corn (Cash, Old-Crop Futures, New-Crop Futures): Secondary Trend: Up Major Trend: Up Noncommercial Futures Position (as of 01/05/21): Net-long 521,097, an increase of 10,549 contracts from the previous week. Basis: Bullish but weakening. Calculated at 17.8 cents under March futures, [...]

Weekly Analysis: Softs

2020-12-20T15:29:25-06:00December 20th, 2020|Softs, Weekly Analysis|

Old-Crop Cotton Futures: March 2021 Weekly Close: 77.16, up 3.08 cents Secondary Trend: Up Noncommercial Position (as of Tuesday, Dec. 15): 81,341 contracts net-long, up 13,381 contracts March-May Futures Spread: 0.67 cent carry, Neutral Analysis: The March contract extended its [...]

Weekly Analysis: Wheat

2020-12-20T14:49:08-06:00December 20th, 2020|Weekly Analysis, Wheat|

Cash HRW Wheat: National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI) Weekly Close: $5.3436, down 12.44 cents Basis: Bullish. Calculated at 34.9 cents under March Kansas City futures Secondary Trend: Sideways Analysis: It’s possible the HWPI has established a double-top given the [...]

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