Theoretical Positions: The bulk of 2023 production could be sold at this point. If not, the seasonal tendency is for the market to rally during the winter and early spring. Trend: Sideways. March cotton is holding above its recent low [...]
Theoretical Positions: 2023-2024 needs might’ve been covered based on the change in long-term trend at the end of June. The spot-month contract was priced near $2.45. Additional needs could be covered when the contract completes the intermediate-term downtrend on its [...]
Theoretical Positions: Put options were bought during the previous uptrend. Short hedges may have been established back in early October when January feeders took out its previous 4-week low of $254.00 (week of October 2). Trend: Down. January  feeders moved [...]
Theoretical Positions: All 2023 HRW production should be sold. As for the 2024 crop, the reality is little of it has likely been priced. Some producers may have locked in some along the way, but for this position I will [...]
Theoretical Positions: Much of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. Bushels not previously priced can be held given the continued uptrend on weekly futures charts. Sell stops would be placed below recent lows: January: [...]
Theoretical Positions: The bulk of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. A large part of 2024 production has also been priced over the past year and a half, as well as some 2025. If [...]
Theoretical Positions: There are no positions in lean hogs at this time. While the market could see an extension of its secondary uptrend, there is no fundamental or seasonal backing for a strong rally. Trend: Up. February lean hogs completed [...]
Theoretical Positions: 2023-2024 needs might’ve been covered based on the change in long-term trend at the end of June. The spot-month contract was priced near $2.45. Additional needs could be covered when the contract completes the intermediate-term downtrend on its [...]
Theoretical Positions: Much of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. Bushels not previously priced can be held given the bullish reversal pattern on weekly futures charts. Sell stops would be placed below recent lows: [...]
Theoretical Positions: The bulk of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. A large part of 2024 production has also been priced over the past year and a half, as well as some 2025. If [...]
Theoretical Positions: The bulk of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. A large part of 2024 production has also been priced over the past year and a half, as well as some 2025. If [...]
Theoretical Positions: 2023-2024 needs might’ve been covered based on the change in long-term trend at the end of June. The spot-month contract was priced near $2.45. Additional needs could be covered when the contract completes the intermediate-term downtrend on its [...]
Theoretical Positions: The best strategy has been to continue selling into the cash market. However, producers will also be looking at spreads and holding cattle back to sell into the next contract. From a futures point of view, it’s possible [...]
Theoretical Positions: Much of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. Bushels not previously priced can be held given the bullish reversal pattern on weekly futures charts. Sell stops would be placed below recent lows: [...]
Theoretical Positions: The bulk of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. A large part of 2024 production has also been priced over the past year and a half, as well as some 2025. If [...]
Theoretical Positions: Much of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. Bushels not previously priced can be held given the bullish reversal pattern on weekly futures charts. Sell stops would be placed below recent lows: [...]
Theoretical Positions: The bulk of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. A large part of 2024 production has also been priced over the past year and a half, as well as some 2025. If [...]
Theoretical Positions: 2023-2024 needs might’ve been covered based on the change in long-term trend at the end of June. The spot-month contract was priced near $2.45. This past Friday saw the spot-month contract close near $3.21. Trend: Down. Despite last [...]
Theoretical Positions: New hedges could continue to be made against the 2023 crop or cash sales made as harvest progresses. Additional sales might've been made as the December contract took out its previous 4-week low of 85.55 last week. Trend: [...]
Theoretical Positions: The best strategy has been to continue selling into the cash market. However, producers will also be looking at spreads and holding cattle back to sell into the next contract. From a futures point of view, it’s possible [...]
Theoretical Positions: All 2023 SRW production should be sold. As for the 2024 crop that is being planted, the reality is little of it has likely been priced. Some producers may have locked in a little along the way, but [...]
Theoretical Positions: Much of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. Bushels not previously priced can be held given the bullish reversal pattern on weekly futures charts. Sell stops would be placed below this past [...]
Theoretical Positions: The bulk of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. A large part of 2024 production has also been priced over the past year and a half, as well as some 2025. If [...]
Theoretical Positions: The best strategy has been to continue selling into the cash market. However, producers will also be looking at spreads and holding cattle back to sell into the next contract. From a futures point of view, it’s possible [...]
Theoretical Positions: Put options were bought during the recent uptrend. The last two weeks have seen Nov Feeders complete a bearish 2-week reversal and new 4-week low. This means short hedges might’ve been put in place at the recent weekly [...]
Theoretical Positions: 2023-2024 needs might’ve been covered based on the change in long-term trend at the end of June. The spot-month contract was price near $2.45. This past Friday saw the spot-month contract close at $2.90. Trend: Down. Last week [...]
Theoretical Positions: Continue to sell cash hogs based on the strength of national average basis and flat seasonal tendency. Trend: I still have no idea what to make of the weekly chart for December lean hogs (slide 1). The contract [...]
Theoretical Positions: New hedges could continue to be made against the 2023 crop or cash sales made as harvest progresses. Trend: Sideways to Down. December cotton completed a bearish 2-week reversal the week of September 4. Since then the contract [...]
Theoretical Positions: All 2023 HRW production should be sold given thew ongoing downtrends in the market. As for the 2024 crop that is being planted, the reality is little of it has likely been priced. Some producers may have locked [...]
Theoretical Positions: Much of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. Fill cash contracts at harvest. Deliver bushels against short hedges and lift futures positions. Those wanting to take advantage of the ongoing downtrend in [...]
Theoretical Positions: The bulk of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. A large part of 2024 production has also been priced over the past year and a half, as well as some 2025. If [...]
Theoretical Positions: The best strategy is to continue to sell into the cash market. However, producers will also be looking at spreads and holding cattle back to sell into the next contract. From a futures point of view, it's possible [...]
Theoretical Positions: 2023-2024 needs might’ve been covered based on the change in long-term trend at the end of June. Trend: Sideways. I still see the spot-month contract in a sideways trend, near the recent high of $3.5092. The previous 4-week [...]
Theoretical Positions: Put options were bought during the recent uptrend. The last two weeks have seen Nov Feeders complete a bearish 2-week reversal and new 4-week low. This means short hedges might've been put in place at the previous week's [...]
Theoretical Positions: New hedges could continue to be made against the 2023 crop. Trend: Sideways to Down. December cotton completed a bearish 2-week reversal the week of September 4. Last week's high of 89.89 looks to be a double-top pattern [...]
Theoretical Positions: Continue to fill previous cash contracts and/or deliver grain and lift short hedges given national average basis remains weak. Remaining bushels could've been sold on stops below the recent low (Dec futures) of $7.5675. Trend: Down. Dec Minneapolis [...]
Theoretical Positions: Much of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. Fill cash contracts at harvest. Deliver bushels against short hedges and lift futures positions. Those wanting to take advantage of the ongoing downtrend in [...]
Theoretical Positions: The bulk of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. A large part of 2024 production has also been priced over the past year and a half, as well as some 2025. If [...]
Theoretical Positions: 2023-2024 needs might’ve been covered based on the change in long-term trend at the end of June. Trend: Sideways. The spot-month contract may have turned sideways on the continuous weekly chart with last week's lower close. While I [...]
Theoretical Positions: New hedges could be placed above the weekly close of 85.91. Trend: Sideways to Down. December cotton completed a bearish 2-week reversal the week of September 4. Last Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders decreased [...]
Theoretical Positions: Continue to sell cash hogs based on the strength of national average basis and flat seasonal tendency. Trend: I have no idea what to make of the weekly chart for December lean hogs (slide 1). The contract posted [...]
Theoretical Positions: Continue to fill previous cash contracts and/or deliver grain and lift short hedges given national average basis remains weak. Additional bushels can continue to be held in storage based on the move to an uptrend on the December [...]
Theoretical Positions: Much of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. Fill cash contracts at harvest. Deliver bushels against short hedges and lift futures positions. Those wanting to take advantage of the ongoing downtrend in [...]
Theoretical Positions: The bulk of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. National average basis continues to weaken Deliver cash grain at harvest to fill contracts Trend: It's a tougher call this week. While I [...]
Theoretical Positions: 2023-2024 needs might’ve been covered based on the change in long-term trend at the end of June. Trend: Up. The spot-month contract extended the market's intermediate-term uptrend to a high of $3.5092 before closing at $3.3834. The market [...]
Theoretical Positions: New hedges could be placed above the weekly close of 85.91 (September 8). Trend: Sideways to Down. December cotton completed a bearish 2-week reversal the week of September 4 before posting an inside trading range last week. Last [...]
Theoretical Positions: The best strategy is to continue to sell into the cash market. However, producers will also be looking at spreads and holding cattle back to sell into the next contract. From a futures point of view, the only [...]
Theoretical Positions: Continue to fill previous cash contracts and/or deliver grain and lift short hedges given national average basis remains weaken. Additional bushels can continue to be held in storage based on the move to an uptrend on the December [...]
Theoretical Positions: Much of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. Fill cash contracts at harvest. Deliver bushels against short hedges and lift futures positions. Given the secondary trend still looks to be down, expected [...]
Theoretical Positions: The bulk of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. National average basis continues to weaken Deliver cash grain at harvest to fill contracts Hold short December hedges and look to roll to [...]
Theoretical Positions: With implied volatility low (roughly 10.5%), the strategy is to continue buying put options. Trend: Up. October feeder cattle are showing no sign of slowing after posting a bullish outside range last week that included a new contract [...]
Theoretical Positions: Continue to fill previous cash contracts and/or deliver grain and lift short hedges given the downtrend in national average basis. Given last week's bullish technical pattern and the cash index bullish seasonal tendencies, additional bushels could be held [...]
Theoretical Positions: Much of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. Fill cash contracts at harvest. Deliver bushels against short hedges and lift futures positions. Given the secondary trend still looks to be down, expected [...]
Theoretical Positions: The bulk of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. Given: The DNAI algorithm is reducing short futures and National average basis continues to weaken Deliver cash grain at harvest to fill contracts [...]
Theoretical Positions: End users could ride the short-term downtrend, but be ready to have coverage in place by the end of September. Given futures spreads are inverted, long hedge positions should be placed in nearby futures contracts. Yes, this means [...]
Theoretical Positions: 2023-2024 needs might’ve been covered based on the change in long-term trend at the end of June. If not, and given the DNAI algorithm is reducing its long position and the weekly chart is overbought, we could wait [...]
Theoretical Positions: Hedgers will likely continue to hold off on making sales, selling on an as needed basis to take advantage of buying from noncommercial and commercial traders. Trend: Up. Dec23 extended its recent move to a new high of [...]
Theoretical Positions: It's a tough call in October lean hogs give the trend looks to be down while fundamentals and seasonals are bullish. If holding short hedges, sell cash and lift short positions given the strength of basis. Hold off [...]
Theoretical Positions: Continue to fill previous cash contracts and/or deliver grain and lift short hedges given the downtrend in national average basis. Sell additional cash bushels despite the bullish seasonal tendency of the cash index. Trend: December Minneapolis futures moved [...]
Theoretical Positions: Much of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. Fill cash contracts at harvest. Deliver bushels against short hedges and lift futures positions. Given the secondary trend still looks to be down, sales [...]
Theoretical Positions: The bulk of 2023 production has been priced with cash contracts or short futures hedges. Given: The DNAI algorithm is reducing short futures and National average basis continues to weaken Deliver cash grain at harvest to fill contracts [...]
Trend: Sideways to up on the Dec23 cotton weekly chart (slide 1). Last Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long futures position by 5,041 contracts (slide 2) This included a decrease in long futures by [...]
Trend: Up. However, the market has moved into a sharply overbought intermediate-term situation. The DNAI in-house algorithm remains intermediate-term long but reducing positions Last Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long futures position by 9,509 [...]
Trend: Theoretically, I could call the secondary (intermediate-term) trend down. However, the October live cattle contract has technically done enough to to complete a 3-wave downtrend (slide 1). However, the DNAI in-house algorithm remains intermediate-term short and increasing positions With [...]
Trend: As with a number of other markets, I’m not getting a good read from the December Minneapolis (HRS) weekly chart (slide 1) However, the DNAI in-house algorithm remains intermediate-term short but reducing positions. Last Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders [...]
Trend: Down. As counter-intuitive as it seems, I still see a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend on the Nov23 weekly chart. This is based on the bearish spike reversal from the week of July 24, with the ongoing rally a possible [...]
Trend: Down. I'm not getting a good read from Dec corn's standard weekly bar chart, so I'm using the weekly close-only chart instead (combination of the Goldilocks Principle[i] and the Wilhelmi Element[ii]). This simplifies things a great deal as I continue [...]
Nov23 futures Trends Minor (short-term): Â Down Secondary (intermediate-term): Down. Two weeks ago saw the contract complete a bearish spike reversal. Last week the contract left a bearish breakaway gap at Sunday night's open. The downside target area is between $12.83 [...]
September futures Trends Secondary (intermediate-term): The contract remains in a sideways trend with resistance at the previous high of $8.8950 and support the previous 4-week low of $7.8725. SepKC did a normal head-fake by posting a high of $8.91 last [...]
Nov23 futures Trends Minor (short-term): It's a tough call on the Nov23 short-term trend. While daily stochastics completed a bearish crossover above 80%, support is at the previous 4-day low of $13.6825 with resistance the 4-day high of $12.4875. That's [...]
Dec23 futures Trends Minor (short-term): Dec23 still looks to be in a minor 5-wave uptrend, though theoretically moving through the waves quickly. Last Friday's test of the 50-day moving average could be viewed as a Wave 4 selloff, and if [...]
Nov23 futures Trends Minor (short-term): For now, I'm going to still call the minor trend on Nov23 daily chart down. The test will be a challenge of the previous high of $11.3975. Secondary (intermediate-term): Also down, for now, based on [...]
Dec23 futures Trends Minor (short-term): Dec23 completed a bullish 2-day reversal Thursday and a posted a new 4-day high Friday, confirming a new minor uptrend was in place. The 50-day moving average is up near $5.31. Secondary (intermediate-term): Dec23 completed [...]
Nov23: The contract completed a bearish spike reversal on its weekly chart (slide 1), confirming a new secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. The initial downside target is $12.92, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $11.3050 (week of May 29) [...]
Dec23: Intermediate-term trend on the Dec23 weekly chart remains down (slide 1). Friday saw the contract fail to complete a bullish spike reversal, closing at $4.9450 as compared to the previous Friday's settlement of $4.9475. The weekly CFTC Commitments of [...]
I had a series of questions come in, wanting me to dive a bit deeper into the Corn Market. Q1: Could corn be considered a weather market this early in June? I think corn could be considered a weather market [...]
Live Cattle: The August contract jumped to a new all-time high of $174.25 last week before closing at $172.90. A frequent question was if this was a blow-off top? It might've been, but nobody is willing to step in front [...]
Kansas City (HRW): The more heavily traded July contract looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend after posting a bullish key reversal the week of May 1 and a bearish key reversal the week of May 15. This [...]
Cash Soybeans: The Barchart National Soybean Price Index completed a bullish key reversal on its weekly chart last week, confirming a new secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend is in place. However, the major (long-term) trend has not turned up yet. Theoretical Positions: [...]
Trends (intermediate-term on weekly charts) Live Cattle June: Could still be considered down, but the safer call is sideways until the contract high is taken out or a new 4-week low is established. August: Ditto June live cattle October: Up, [...]
Trends (Weekly Cash Indexes): HRW Wheat is sideways However, the long-term trend on the indexes monthly chart looks to be building a bullish key reversal Needing a final settlement this month above April's figure near $7.46 The index was priced [...]
Trends: Short-term trends are down Intermediate-term trend on weekly charts for July and November are down. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders held a net-long soybean futures position of 38,1540 contracts (blue line) [...]
Trends: Short-term trend could try to turn up to close out the week. Intermediate-term trend on weekly charts for July and December (slide 1) remains down. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders held [...]
Live Cattle: June live cattle completed a bearish outside range last week, confirming it has moved into a new secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Initial support this week is at last week's low of $161.20, the new 4-week low, with the target [...]
Kansas City (HRW): July contract completed a bullish key reversal on its weekly chart last week, indicating its secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up. Theoretical Positions: Theoretically, long-term short hedges may have been established near the weekly close of $11.41 [...]
Cash Soybeans: The Barchart National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) completed a bullish spike reversal on its weekly chart, though the turn to a new secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend is not as clear as it is in [...]
Cash Corn: The weekly close-only chart for the Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) looks to have rolled into a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly chart. Last week saw the contract post a new [...]
I don't want to jump the gun, but the June lean hog contract looks to be in position to complete a bullish reversal on its weekly chart this week. If so, this would confirm a new secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend signaled [...]
A friend from southern Minnesota sent in a question that asked, "Why is corn dropping so fast?" He added it was still winter-like in his area, with nothing in the ground because it was too wet. His question reminded me [...]
Brent crude (QA): I'm not getting much of a read from either secondary (intermediate-term) weekly or minor (short-term) weekly charts. However, the major (long-term) monthly chart shows a bullish reversal looks to be in the works. Theoretical Positions: None at [...]
Gold: June gold extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a high of $2,049.20 last week. While the argument could still be made June is nearing the completion of a 5-wave pattern, we've seen bearish reversals wiped out along the way. [...]
