I had a request come in Thursday asking if I could take a look at August feeder cattle. My friend was wondering how much more downside should be expected given this week's move to a new contract low of $164.60. [...]

I had a question come in Wednesday afternoon regarding corn basis versus the September futures contract. This was before the latest release of the Barchart National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average basis) at 10.0 cents under July futures. [...]

As I mentioned in Tuesday's Afternoon Commentary, the US dollar index is in position to complete a bearish reversal pattern on its weekly chart this week. Last week saw the USDX hit a high of 105.00, its highest mark since [...]

Those of you out there who are foodies know the pork butt is actually from the shoulder, and when slow smoked and pulled makes one of the most delicious sandwiches known to mankind (pardon me while I wipe the drool [...]

As I mentioned in Morning Commentary, July soybeans took out its previous 4-day high of $16.2725 (Thursday's high) overnight through early Friday morning. This is a bullish reversal indicating the minor (short-term) trend has turned up, confirming the latest signal [...]

As you likely recall, one of the key economic indicators I track is the beef cutout markets. These tell me how demand for higher priced cuts of beef are trending and as of Tuesday, that trend is down. The latest [...]

A good friend called in Tuesday with a question that reminded me of the old limbo saying, "How low can you go?" My friend was concerned about October live cattle, and what the downside targets might be with his question, [...]

It is setting up to be an interesting week for the new-crop December corn contract. Technically (first chart) Last Friday's close of $7.2075 completed what could be viewed as a bearish 2-week reversal As it was near the weekly low [...]

Sometimes when I'm updating Report Commentary with the various weekly export sales and shipments number and charts on Thursday, a number slips by me without registering. Such was the case this week in soybeans. I mentioned at the time how [...]

I ran out of time and space in Afternoon Commentary to talk about all that took place in the livestock sector Thursday, but one of the markets that jumped out at me was June live cattle. The contract closed at [...]

The June lean hog contract looks to be nearing the end of its secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend after hitting a low of $101.875 during Tuesday's session. This was a test of the downside target of $102.90, a price marking the [...]

We need to keep an eye on the July corn contract as it is getting close to completing a short-term head and shoulders topping pattern on its daily chart. Trendline support Tuesday is near $7.9225 meaning if the contract hits [...]

Things are set to get interesting in the October live cattle contract following Monday's strong rally. The contract closed at $144.05, up $1.575 for the day, and within sight of the price gap between $145.975 (low from April 22) and [...]

The June lean hog contract turned bearish quickly as it extended Wave C (third wave) of its secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend to a low of $108.725 this week. Though the 3-wave downtrend has technically been completed, having taken out the [...]

I had a request come in for a look at August feeder cattle following Wednesday's train wreck of a session. My friend asked about the contract's short-term daily chart, and frankly I don't see much on there. The contract broke [...]

As mentioned in Afternoon Commentary, the Dec 2023 corn contract stole the spotlight Monday. One way of looking at the Dec23 issue is with this daily close-only chart for the Dec22-Dec23 spread. While I usually don't advocate spreads of different [...]

As I mentioned in Morning Commentary, the key price to watch with new-crop December corn Friday is last week's settlement of $7.3525. This week saw Dec post a new contract high of $7.55, so a lower weekly close would complete [...]

As I've been talking about for the last few weeks, old-crop soybeans look to be in the process of a strong short-squeeze. This is when those needing to buy short-term supplies put the squeeze on traders, both noncommercial and commercial, [...]

I had a question come in asking if "May and August feeders were getting close to being a buy". Both contracts are showing minor (short-term) uptrends on their respective daily charts, fitting with the DNAI in-house algorithm's Theoretical Position of [...]

As we head into another week there will be a great deal of chatter about the slow pace of planting progress across the US. This is understandable given the continued cool, wet weather across the US Midwest and the mid-spring [...]

The process of picking out a Chart of the Day begins by going through some of the hundreds of charts and studies I have on hand and seeing which one jumps out at me the most. Given the volatility we've [...]

As I mentioned in Afternoon Commentary, the May-July corn spread stepped back into the spotlight late in Wednesday's session. After seeing its inverse cut to about 3 cents early in the day, once the Goldman roll came to an end [...]

Every time I type in "September Corn", my mind starts playing Neil Diamond's song "September Morn". Those of you old enough to remember, feel free to hum along as you read this. Anyway. The usually overlooked September corn contract is [...]

As I mentioned in Monday's Morning Commentary, given the overnight selloff by crude oil the spot-month contract could take out its previous 4-week low of $93.53 "in the not-too-distant future". As it turned out, that was within the next hour [...]

As I was putting together my weekly comments on the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, I referenced a possible change in the minor (short-term) trend of June lean hogs. Solid noncommercial selling drove the contract from a high of [...]

I just received a newsflash from MarketWatch that US natural gas, the famed Widow Maker, just hit a new 13-year high. Naturally, I wanted to see for myself so I pulled up the market's long-term continuous monthly chart. Sure enough, [...]

I had a question come in about whether or not feed yards across the US Plains would make a ration switch from corn to SRW during the last half of spring and this coming summer. There is a lot of [...]

As I talked about in this space on Thursday, March 31 ("May Feeder Cattle: Clear, But Yet Not"), the daily chart for May feeder cattle was showing the previous 5-wave minor (short-term) uptrend had come to an end. This meant [...]

While the DNAI algorithm showed a moderate change in its intermediate-term theoretical position (moving from a neutral short to neutral long), my analysis shows a more significant potential turn in June lean hogs. Here was see the contract flew to [...]

I'll keep this brief so folks can act on it if they see fit ahead of the weekend. The July corn contract is close to completing a bearish key reversal on its weekly chart, confirming a move to a secondary [...]

The May feeder cattle contract looks to have established completed its minor (short-term) uptrend, though no clear reversal pattern has been posted on its daily chart. Additionally, daily stochastics did not get above the overbought level of 80% before establishing [...]

A couple weeks ago I posted an initial look at the 2022 July-September corn futures spread ("Looking Ahead"), focusing on the bearish flag pattern. Once trend line support was broken, the pattern suggested an extended selloff to roughly 25.0 cents [...]

The weekly chart for crude oil continues to get more interesting, with the spot-month contract losing as much as $15.46 this week, and it's only Tuesday. Today's low of $98.44 brings support at the previous 4-week low of 93.53 into [...]

I had a question come in about the October live cattle contract. Technically it looks like a good time to either go short or add to shorts in the market. The DNAI in-house algorithm is showing theoretical short positions, both [...]

There is a lot going on in the live cattle market as we head toward the weekend. Friday afternoon will see the release of the March 1 Cattle on Feed report, with futures spread activity during February indicating another round [...]

It was another day for the May-July corn futures spread, another day of taking out technical support on its daily close-only chart. Recall the spread closed below its previous low of 23.5 cents inverse this past Tuesday, finishing at 23.25 [...]

As discussed in Wednesday's Morning Commentary, the May-July corn spread is showing the signs of early rolling forward of the noncommercial long futures position. Tuesday saw the spread close at an inverse of 23.25 cents, just below its low previous [...]

One way to track the trend of a market's forward curve is to look at the spread between the beginning and end of a set period of time. In new-crop soybeans, the 2022-2023 forward curve consists of all contracts between [...]

Let me say at the outset, I do not like the July-September corn spread. Why? The September contract is a hybrid - part old-crop, part new-crop. The role it plays each year is dependent on weather, with early planting season [...]

The June live cattle contract posted a bullish spike reversal Thursday, a move that looks to have bottomed out Wave 4 of the contract's minor (short-term) uptrend. If so, June live cattle would now be expected to take out the [...]

As I was waiting my turn to go on RFD-TV Wednesday morning, Christina Loren was going over the weather forecast. Toward the end, she showed maps for early next week with much of the US Southern Plains covered in bright [...]

As discussed last week (see Thursday's Chart of the Day, "May Feeder Cattle: Counting Waves"), the May feeder cattle contract had moved into a minor (short-term) uptrend, and was in a Wave 2 retracement at the time. Interestingly enough, Wave [...]

The May-July corn spread looks to be in the early stages of Wave C (third wave) of the 3-wave downtrend on its daily close-only chart. Last Friday saw the spread close at 33.75 cents inverse, a test of the target [...]

I can't help but think of the great Yogi Berra's famous quote as I continue to track the 2022 edition of the May-July soybean futures spread, "It's like deja vu all over again." You can see on the daily close-only [...]

Before we get into the technicals of May feeder cattle, let's start with the contract's structure: It's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down on its weekly chart Fundamentally the market remains bearish, as indicated by futures spreads That being said, May [...]

The May-July corn futures spread looks to be in the process of completing a bearish flag or pennant consolidation pattern. If so, a break of trend line support either Thursday or Friday would project a target of 5.5 cents inverse [...]

The euro looks to be in the process of completing a bullish spike reversal on its weekly chart, a pattern that would confirm a change to a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. All that is needed through Friday's close is a higher [...]

The 2021-2022 May-July soybean futures spread (orange line) has reached a crossroad. It closed Tuesday at an inverse of 34.0 cents, just below its lifetime high daily close of 35.0 cents inverse from March 3. Continued commercial buying Wednesday would [...]

Changes in latitude... A great Jimmy Buffett song, and perfect description of what we are seeing in the new-crop Nov-Jan soybean futures spread. To recap: A good friend from central Nebraska messaged me early Monday morning about his local fertilizer [...]

Thursday's sharp selloff in feeder cattle saw the April contract hit a low of $162.025 before rallying to close at $163.80. Naturally, much of the talk was the association with the late day selloff in corn providing support to feeder [...]

As you recall, from a technical point of view, the continuous monthly December corn only chart showed a long-term reversal pattern last May. This included a high of $6.38 registered by the December 2021 issue, before the contract ultimately fell [...]

As discussed last week, the April live cattle contract completed the short-term head and shoulders top pattern on its daily chart Wednesday. The contract broke the extended neckline (solid blue line) at roughly $145.35 as it fell to a low [...]

There is a great deal of discussion about the crude oil market early Friday morning, with growing chatter about how the market looks to have topped. This despite the market is heading into what is expected to be a volatile [...]

For this discussion of April live cattle I switched to the contract's daily candlestick chart because I noticed something interesting about Wednesday's session. The contract opened yesterday day at $146.925 before posting a high of $147.70 and low of $146.175, [...]

The May-July soybean spread has seen its inverse cut from last Friday's close of 5.25 cents to 0.5 cent at Tuesday's settlement, indicating increased South American hedge pressure coming out of the weekend. With that activity likely wrapped up short-term, [...]

There is a lot going on with the daily chart for the April feeder cattle contract, so let's get right to it: A bearish crossover by daily stochastics above 80% was established at the close of February 4, a signal [...]

The May soybean contract is interesting heading into Monday's session after the contract's initial overnight rally ran out of momentum leaving May beans to drift lower. Recall from Sunday's Weekly Analysis when I posted the DNAI in-house algorithm theoretical positions [...]

As discussed in a Quick Take early Thursday morning, Brazil's Conab cut it's estimate for that country's soybean production to 125.4 mmt due to weather, down 15.0 mmt from its previous estimate. This helped spike the soybean market over the [...]

The first week of February has been an interesting one for US 10-year T-note futures. As discussed in Monthly Analysis on February 1, the nearby March issue has dropped to a test of the next downside target at 126-104, hitting [...]

I mentioned in Tuesday's Morning Commentary has the May-July futures spread would be the Chart of the Day. However, I gave the spread the day to play out, and I'm glad I did, as all the gains it put on [...]

As I mentioned in Sunday's Weekly Analysis: Cotton, the minor (short-term) trend for old-crop March cotton looks to be in the process of turning down. After hitting a new contract high of 129.37 last week, the March issue has been [...]

The May-July corn futures spread had an interesting week. From a technical point of view, if you tilt your head just right you can make out what looks to be and head and shoulder top, though granted the right shoulder [...]

Both feeder cattle and live cattle have registered fascinating weeks so far, with new contract highs being posted nearly every day. The conclusion most jump to is fundamentals have turned bullish and are sparking a wave of noncommercial buying across [...]

The April feeder cattle contracts has extended its minor (short-term) uptrend to a high of $171.875 Wednesday, quite a change from late last week when it was challenging support at its previous low of $163.90. After clearing initial resistance at [...]

After Tuesday's session, we can file all USDA's WASDE South American soybean production estimates under "U", for useless. Or just in the waste bin to save time. The May-July futures spread tells us all we need to know about global [...]

As mentioned in Monday morning's Basis Analysis, the March-May futures spread looks to be on the cusp of confirming a short-term top on its daily chart. After peaking at a high of a 3.5-cent inverse on January 24, the spread [...]

I had a question come in about April feeder cattle, wondering if the contract was a buy or a sell. I've studied its daily chart since Thursday afternoon, and with much debate, my answer to the question would be "Yes". [...]

This past Tuesday's Chart of the Day discussed a minor (short-term) spike reversal posted by the old-crop March 2022 corn contract. Since then the contract has bounced back and forth, without taking out the Tuesday high leaving the idea of [...]

Tuesday's session in corn was interesting for a number of reasons, many of them showing up on the daily chart for the March issue: March corn raced to a high of $6.31, up 10 cents for the day, before closing [...]

I had a question come in early this morning about the Canadian dollar (loonie), and what its showing given all the hubbub surrounding possible moves by the US Federal Reserve. The first thing I did is go back to my [...]

As discussed in Thursday's Afternoon Commentary, the March-May corn spread closed at 0.25 cent inverse, the first time the spread has been north of par since a close of 0.25 cent inverse on May 7, 2021. The day before that, [...]

As you folks recall, I have no problem answering a question with "I don't know", but when I do, I tend to set to work trying to find the answer. Sometimes, though, this sends me headlong into Newsom's Rule #5: [...]

As mentioned in Afternoon Commentary, March sugar posted a sweet rally rally, closing 0.35 cent (per pound) higher for the day, equating to a a gain of 1.9%. The March contract's daily chart shows a bullish gap, with the open [...]

Just as the euro completed a bearish key reversal last Friday, the US dollar index ($DXY) posted a bullish key reversal on its daily chart. The $DXY fell to a new low of 94.63 before rallying to take out Thursday's [...]

As I mentioned in Friday's Morning Commentary, one of the more interesting wheat spreads has been the spread between the cmdty National Price Indexes for HRS and HRW. This past July, as the 2021 HRW wheat harvest was concluding and [...]

March corn is on the cusp of extending and theoretically completing its minor (short-term) downtrend all at the same time. If we look at this pattern as a 3-wave downtrend, starting with the bearish key reversal on December 28 that [...]

The US dollar index confirmed its secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend Wednesday by taking out support at its previous 4-week low of 95.57 and its interim low of 95.52. As I discussed in last weekend's Weekly Analysis: Metals, this now projects a [...]

The new-crop July Kansas City (HRW) wheat contract extended its minor (short-term) uptrend $7.8975 Tuesday. This move began with a bullish spike reversal last Friday that coincided with a bullish crossover by daily stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. [...]

The new-crop November soybean contract had folks, including myself, scratching their heads Monday. One session after posting a new contract high of $13.2250, and closing near its new high at $13.2175 last Friday, November soybeans fell apart quickly Monday. The [...]

With another weekend fast approaching, the euro looks to be in position to quickly extend its recently established secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Last week saw the euro post a new 4-week high, beyond the previous mark or 1.13822, before consolidating this [...]

As mentioned in Thursday's Morning Commentary, the March Kansas City (HRW) wheat futures contract took out its previous 4-week low at $7.81 (dashed red line) overnight. This is a bearish momentum indicator telling us the contract is set to extend [...]

There isn't much to talk about in financial markets early Wednesday, putting the proverbial heat lamp on Beyond Meat (BYND) stock in pre-market activity. Those of you who have been following along will recall I've been bearish the stock for [...]

After I wrote Tuesday's Morning Commentary, I went back to the weekly chart for March soybeans. What I thought I saw early this morning simply doesn't look to be there. My initial thought this was, by one count, Week 6 [...]

The overnight rally in soybeans was an impressive start to the new year. March gained as much as 25.5 cents May rallied as much as 25.0 cents July added as much as 24.5 cents Of the three, only March showed [...]

As we prepare to turn the page from 2021 to 2022 at midnight, the key market to watch early in the new year is the March-May soybean futures spread. What happens in this spread the first couple months of 2022 [...]

I'd like to say I know exactly what's going to happen with February live cattle Friday, but the best I can do is say its a contract that could move a long way either up or down. Now, before you [...]

As I mentioned in Wednesday's Morning Commentary, March soybeans completed a bearish spike reversal during Tuesday's session confirming a move to a new minor (short-term) downtrend. This coincided with a bearish crossover by daily stochastics above the overbought level of [...]

As I talked about in Tuesday's Afternoon Commentary, there was a lot going on in March corn over the course of the day though trade volume came in moderate at best near 114,000 contracts. March hit a new high for [...]

I was interested in how new-crop July Kansas City (HRW) was going to react Monday, given early forecasts bringing a slight chance of rain to the US Southern Plains growing area this coming weekend. The contract initially rallied, hitting a [...]

I had a question come in asking if April feeder cattle looked like a buy. As has been the case for months now, or so it seems, in cattle I'm getting mixed signals. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the contract's [...]

I had a question come in yesterday regarding August 2022 live cattle. From a technical point of view, I still see the contract in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend that began with the bearish key reversal[i] the week of November 29. [...]

As I mentioned in Afternoon Commentary, there is a lot going on technical in March coffee to start the week. Let’ take these in order as I see them on the weekly chart: The contract posted a bearish spike reversal[i] [...]

Thursday saw the February live cattle contract post a new low for its minor (short-term) downtrend of $135.80 before closing higher for the day at $137.05. The higher close completed a bullish spike reversal pattern indicating the minor trend has [...]

Wednesday was an explosive day for a number of markets, none more so than soybean oil. The day started with news that two of the world's largest edible oil buyers - China and India - have been turning their attention [...]

Though I usually update my global currency technical analysis at month end as I track the major (long-term) trends of the US dollar index, euro, Canadian dollar, and Brazilian real (BRLUSD), I want to take a mid-month look at the [...]

As I mentioned in Monday's Afternoon Commentary, there was a lot going on in the soybean market that led to the 20-cent plus selloff to open the week. Recall some of the pressure came from commercial traders, as indicated by [...]

Well, that was interesting. The possibility I talked about in both Weekly Analysis of Corn and Price Distribution early Monday came to pass as the December 2022 contract took out its previous 4-week low of $5.41. This confirmed a new [...]

Grab your cup of coffee early this fine winter Friday morning and let’s talk about, well, coffee. A look at this weekly chart for the March contract shows the coffee market could be following the same posted by so many [...]

It seems I'm posting an update of crude oil nearly every day, and sure enough I'm back at it again Thursday. The daily chart shows the spot-month contract posted a bearish outside range, moving to a new high for the [...]

As I mentioned in Morning Commentary, February gold popped to a new 4-day high overnight through early Wednesday morning. The previous mark was Tuesday's peak of $1,789.30. The contract established its new minor (short-term) uptrend late last week as it [...]

Following up on what I talked about in this space last Friday, crude oil's minor (short-term) has accelerated through the early part of this week. Tuesday saw the spot-month contract draw near the upside target of $73.92, a price marking [...]

As I mentioned in Afternoon Commentary, the February-April lean hog futures spread saw a dramatic breakdown Monday. Not only did the February contract close $3.275 lower for the day, it lost $1.05 to the April contract, the spread closing at [...]

A good friend sent me a message Friday morning saying, "Interesting setups on the weekly live cattle charts, putting the spotlight on the close." He was and is absolutely right. One quick look at this February live cattle weekly chart [...]

Sometimes short-term spike reversals give us a few days to see how they play out. Other times, the contract or market takes off immediately after establishing this reversal pattern. As the continuous daily chart for the spot-month crude oil chart [...]

Rather than floating on the breeze, March cotton is sinking like a stone. Since posting its contract high of 118.50 the week of November 15, March cotton fell to a low Wednesday of 103.86. This week has also seen the [...]

I just had a question come in regarding the December 2022 corn contract. There is a concern over this week's action with a look at the contract's weekly chart showing a possible bearish 2-week reversal building. Granted, it is only [...]

As mentioned in Monday's Morning Commentary, I had a question come in Sunday evening asking what the pattern on March Chicago (SRW) wheat's daily chart might mean. As always, thank you for the questions. I have two initial thoughts when [...]

A good friend likes to poke fun at me by starting a number of our conversations with, "I know you aren't a moving average guy, but..." He has a point. Moving averages are one of the technical indicators I threw [...]

As I mentioned in Weekly Analysis of Soybeans, the intermediate-term theoretical position would be long January futures at roughly $12.4450 with a stop below the previous 4-week low of $11.8125. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned up with a bullish spike [...]

My math was a little off in Monday's Morning Commentary in my discussion of the possible targets fo the US dollar index ($DXY). Last week did indeed have a double-top of 96.24 (Wednesday and Friday) with an interim low of [...]

I changed my mind about what to post as Friday’s Chart of the Day based on the breakdown we’ve seen in March corn over the course of the morning. As I mentioned in Morning Commentary, March corn took out its [...]

The January lumber contract has posted a solid rally this week, gaining nearly $90 (per 1,000 board feet) from last week's close of $622.30. Wednesday saw the contract close at its weekly high of $712.00, up the $45 daily limit. [...]

It's hard to believe it was only Monday when I last posted about crude oil (see "Crude Oil: Believe or Not"), it seems so long ago. Regardless of my losing track of time, the spot-month contract has done what was [...]

Recently our attention has turned to the March corn contract as it now holds the largest open interest. Given that, let's take a look at the technical patterns on its short-term daily chart. Similar to the December issue, March confirmed [...]

As I mentioned in Monday's Morning Commentary, the crude oil market is giving technical indications the intermediate-term trend on its continuous weekly chart has turned down. The week of October 25 saw the spot-month contract post a new high for [...]

December corn has posted an impressive rally off its Tuesday low of $5.4775, hitting a high of $5.7175 during Wednesday's session: Tuesday's low was a test of previous resistance turned support at $5.4850 from September 30. It was also near [...]

My good friend Neils Christensen from Kitco News just called me and asked my thoughts on this week's bullish breakout by December gold. Like so many other commodities, it has been quite a move. Initial resistance this week was at [...]

As I said in Tuesday's Afternoon Commentary, post-report activity in soybeans is as clear an example of why USDA monthly Supply and Demand reports need to be done away with as any you will find. One look at this 5-minute [...]

Back when the Kansas City Royals were playing in the 2014 and 2015 Major League Baseball World Series, the rallying cry was to "Keep the Line Moving". This meant the next batter up needed to find a way to get [...]

I mentioned in Friday's Afternoon Commentary that it was a bearish week for the December Minneapolis (HRS) wheat contract, regardless of the weekly chart one chose to look at. On the contracts candlestick chart: Dec posted what is called a [...]

As I mentioned in Friday's Morning Commentary, the new-crop July Kansas City (HRW) wheat contract is in position to complete a bearish spike reversal on its weekly chart. After posting a new contract high of $8.00 this past Tuesday, the [...]

I'm using a different type of chart format this morning to show what is going on with the December Minneapolis (HRS) wheat contract. Rather than the usual bar chart, this is the candlestick chart for the contract. Reportedly, candlestick charting [...]

In my conversation on the WIBW Radio "Ag Issues" program Wednesday morning, the host Kyle Hill asked me about soybean meal. This is a market that has been flying under the radar for months, before starting to rally the last [...]

One of the common themes in my analysis lately has been how corn contracts were sharply overbought short-term, increasingly the likelihood we would see some sort of reversal pattern into minor downtrends. A look at the daily chart for December [...]

January feeder cattle wasted no time in completing its secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend on its weekly chart, blowing through its previous low of $153.125 on its way to Monday's low of $150.775. The contract was able to rally late to [...]

Out in New England (home of Salem, Massachusetts, and all things spooky this time of year), they have feast that is called a "crab boil". To a big pot, in the spirit of the season I'll call it a cauldron; [...]

December lean hogs posted a strong rally Thursday, with emphasis on the adjective "strong" as the contract gained as much as $3.40 before closing $3.225 higher for the day. This now has the issue in position to post a bullish [...]

A number of you asked me about December live cattle Tuesday, and rightfully so. I'm on the record saying: The December-February futures spread continues to show bearish fundamentals The most recent Cattle on Feed report was actually bearish rather than [...]

As I mentioned Tuesday's Afternoon Commentary, I'm growing more concerned with the Minneapolis (HRS) wheat market. While the structure of the market remains bullish, the continued secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up (for now) and futures spreads are bullish, creating a [...]

Good morning everyone. I had a great question come in Saturday morning asking about livestock spreads. As always I appreciate the correspondence and participation. It's what I'm here for. My friend asked, "What would it take to create cost of [...]

A good friend just called to ask me what I thought of the bearish outside week on December live cattle's weekly chart. My thought is he was spot-on with his analysis, and I'll add this looks to be confirmation Wave [...]

The commodity sector has handed out a lot of nicknames over the decades with some of the most well-known being King Corn, the Widow Maker (natural gas), and Doctor Copper. The latter is based on the copper market's use in [...]

As I mentioned in Wednesday's Morning Commentary a characteristic, quirk if you will, of the wheat market (any of the wheat markets) is the tendency to post head fakes. A head fake is a false technical signal that theoretically could [...]

As I mentioned in Tuesday's Morning Commentary, the US dollar index ($DXY) extended its minor (short-term) downtrend to a low of 93.50. This move began with the completion of a bearish 2-day reversal on Wednesday, October 13. The short-term downside [...]

The feeder cattle market has seen a bearish breakdown early Monday, and from a technical point of view this indicates contracts are moving into Wave C (third wave) of ongoing 3-wave secondary (intermediate-term) downtrends. Recent minor (short-term) uptrends look to [...]

As I mentioned in Thursday's Morning Commentary, the US dollar index ($DXY) is in position to establish a bearish reversal pattern on its weekly chart. Early this week saw the $DXY hit a high of 94.56, taking out last week's [...]

I had a request come in Tuesday evening to take a look at this weekly chart for December 30-year US T-bond futures (ZBZ21). Those of you who have been with me for a while likely see the same technical patterns [...]

A week ago I talked about how the December lean hog contract was in position to possibly post an island top on its daily chart (see "No Hog Is an Island" from October 5). All that was needed was a [...]

As I mentioned in last Friday's Afternoon Commentary, "To a Mouse", the best laid plans of November soybeans indeed went awry. After failing to complete the bullish spike reversal on its weekly chart, a move that would've confirmed its seasonal [...]

As you likely recall, I spent some time this past week talking about the possibility soybean futures and the cmdty National Soybean Price Index[i] could post bullish spike reversals[ii] on their respective weekly charts. Then, as Friday played out, the [...]

Since October is the month of Halloween, and next week sees the release of yet another movie of the same name (I think it’s the 12th in the franchise), I thought I’d take a moment to talk about the scariest [...]

I had a request come in to take a look at November feeder cattle, and as always I thank all of you for participating in this website. The last time I talked about November feeders I was looking at its [...]

As I mentioned in Wednesday's Morning Commentary, we need to keep a close eye on the new-crop July Kansas City (HRW) contract as this week progresses. July KC posted a new contract high of $7.52 Monday before falling back to [...]

As I mentioned in Quick Takes Tuesday Morning ("Morning in the Barn"), the December lean hog futures contract had the potential to establish an island top pattern on its daily chart. After gapping higher both September 27 and September 30, [...]

I know I mentioned an updated look at November soybeans in a Chart of the Day Monday, but I want to bring your attention to December soybean meal as it spends a lot of time in the shadow of soybeans. [...]

As I was putting together the Seasonal Analysis for November soybean futures and the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) Sunday morning, I was intrigued by this weekly chart for the NSPI. While the major [...]

I've had a lot of discussions about soybeans the last 18 hours. A lot of discussions. And the bottom line is, despite USDA's obviously wrong quarterly stocks number of 256 mb, the structure of November soybeans has not changed. Let's [...]

It seems every market gets its chance to post a nearly vertical rally, with the latest being December cotton. A shared characteristic of most of these markets, excluding natural gas, is inverted futures spreads indicating fundamentals are incredibly bullish. At [...]

As I mentioned in Wednesday's Afternoon Commentary, it was quite a day for the US dollar index and the euro. The dollar extended its intermediate-term uptrend to a 94.43, the highest it has been since the week of September 28, [...]

I had a request come if for a look at either November or January feeder cattle, and with Nov the more heavily traded issue I'm going with that one this morning. A side note, the daily charts of the two [...]