Dec Corn: Short-Term Upturn

2020-08-11T08:18:49-05:00August 11th, 2020|

As I mentioned in Monday's Afternoon Commentary and again in Quick Takes later in the evening, Dec corn looks to have moved into a minor (short-term) uptrend on its daily chart. Initial signals for such a move were a bullish [...]

December Silver: Silver Bells

2020-07-31T07:33:24-05:00July 31st, 2020|

I had a question come in regarding the daily chart for December silver. My friend asked, "What's your opinion on Dec silver? To me it seems like its forming a bull flag." After  initially answering by analyzing the September contract, [...]

Euro-verbought

2020-07-30T15:19:54-05:00July 30th, 2020|

The euro has been on a incredible run the last three weeks, extending its uptrends (minor, secondary, and major) to a new high of 1.18475 Thursday. This was a test of the next major target of 1.18417, a level marking [...]

Crude Oil: Floating at the Top

2020-07-29T14:56:20-05:00July 29th, 2020|

The WTI crude oil market has been floating just below its next upside target near $43.49, the 50% retracement level of the previous secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend from $76.90 (week of October 1, 2018) through $10.07* (week of April 27), for 6 [...]

Euro Up

2020-07-15T07:07:09-05:00July 15th, 2020|

I mentioned this week's bullish breakout by the euro in Morning Commentary, and wanted to take a moment to continue the conversation. The nearby futures contract reached a high of 1.1454 overnight through early Wednesday morning, taking out its previous [...]

Dec Cotton: Getting Close

2020-07-06T09:32:43-05:00July 6th, 2020|

New-crop Dec cotton is posting a solid 0.5 cent rally to start the week, supported by a round of commercial buying indicated by a weaker carry in the Dec-March futures spread. However, we need to keep a close eye on [...]

Dec Corn: Ruh-Roh Shaggy

2020-07-02T08:31:17-05:00July 2nd, 2020|

The grain and oilseed complex in general did not post a bullish close to the overnight session Thursday, with all the major markets finishing in the red. A quick look at this daily chart for Dec corn will likely have [...]

Somewhere, Beyond McD…

2020-06-30T09:37:39-05:00June 30th, 2020|

Back on May 8th the Chart of the Day discussed the secondary uptrend the Beyond Meat stock had established, due in part to the problems (at the time) getting meat packing plants up and running. Recall March and April had [...]

Nov Soybeans: Rolling Over

2020-06-08T14:42:08-05:00June 8th, 2020|

As I mentioned in the most recent Weekly Analysis of Oilseeds (posted Sunday, June 7), the minor (short-term) trend in new-crop November soybeans was set to turn down following last Friday's (M5) bearish crossover by daily stochastics, not only above [...]

The Euro: Slow Climb

2020-05-31T11:50:38-05:00May 31st, 2020|

I still see a major (long-term) uptrend on the monthly chart for the nearby euro futures contract. While the bearish outside range posted during March remains a little bothersome, the euro has been able to slowly climb back, posting a [...]

Cash HRW Wheat: Harvest Ho!

2020-05-30T12:36:25-05:00May 30th, 2020|

The long-term monthly close-only chart for the cmdty National Kansas City Wheat Price Index (HWPI, national average cash price), what I view as the market's intrinsic value is showing an interesting pattern of condensing trends. For example, the initial major [...]

There Euro Go

2020-05-27T06:38:04-05:00May 27th, 2020|

As you know, I've been keeping a close eye on a number of global currencies, with much of the focus on the U.S. dollar index (USDX) and euro. As we set sail on a new day Wednesday, the euro has [...]

Euro: Building A Bottom

2020-05-18T14:23:20-05:00May 18th, 2020|

The euro posted a solid gain of 1.03 to start the week, rallying off an early test of trend line support (bottom blue line) enough to move through trend line resistance (top blue line). Those of you following along the [...]

Don’t Sleep on Dec Cotton

2020-05-13T15:11:07-05:00May 13th, 2020|

One contract I haven't talked about much of late is new-crop December cotton. After establishing a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, starting with a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20% the week of March 23, Dec cotton [...]

Euro: That Pinching Feeling

2020-05-11T06:32:44-05:00May 11th, 2020|

The continuous weekly chart for the nearby euro futures contract shows a continued consolidation pattern roughly between the recent low of 1.0648 (week of March 16) and 1.1150 (weeks of March 23 and March 30). Since then the euro has [...]

The Great Beyond

2020-05-08T06:58:43-05:00May 8th, 2020|

As I mentioned in my latest Weekly Column, "The Chain", the company Beyond Meat has become the darling of CNBC financial news, particularly Mad Money star Jim Cramer. The spotlight has been shining brighter on Beyond Meat, and the fake [...]

Cash Soybeans: Not As Clear

2020-05-01T06:26:48-05:00May 1st, 2020|

The cmdty National Soybean Index (NSPI, weighted national average) posted a strong 19 1/2-cent gain to close the month of April at $8.09 1/2, extending its rally off the monthly low near $7.64 1/2 posted on April 21. While an [...]

Cash Corn: A Clear Picture

2020-05-01T06:06:44-05:00May 1st, 2020|

Of all the monthly charts I'll be discussing, King Corn's corn picture seems to be the clearest. And as always, when I talk about long-term trends of the various grain markets I'm looking at the cash, or intrinsic value, of [...]

Gold: To Be, Or Not To Be

2020-05-01T05:49:13-05:00May 1st, 2020|

After what we saw on the monthly charts for currencies, gold looks to be relatively straight forward. But then again, in this time of great uncertainty, what seems to be may not actually be. nevertheless, if we take this monthly [...]

November Rice: Wave Thrice

2020-04-23T21:16:38-05:00April 22nd, 2020|

I haven't talked about rice in a while (it, along with new-crop Oats, will return in this coming weekend's Weekly Analysis: Grains), and at first glance this weekly chart of the new-crop November contract doesn't seem to be showing much [...]

Euro: Moving Sideways

2020-04-20T06:35:17-05:00April 20th, 2020|

A look at this weekly chart shows nearby euro futures continue to consolidate in a narrowing range, moving in a sideways trend for now while waiting for the next breakout. This pattern started with the high of 1.1502 (week of [...]

Dec Cotton: Return Wave

2020-04-16T07:07:15-05:00April 16th, 2020|

Dec cotton looks to be in the process fo rolling over from a minor (short term uptrend to a downtrend, with initial support at the 4-day low of 54.33. Daily stochastics already established a bearish crossover above the overbought level [...]

Crude Oil: The Waiting Game

2020-04-10T09:32:22-05:00April 10th, 2020|

All eyes were on Thursday's OPEC+ meeting where global cuts in oil production were expected to be announced. And if not then, the next likelihood day for some sort of announcement as today, Friday, April 10, at the G20 meeting. [...]

Dec Cotton: Gaining Momentum

2020-04-06T14:42:50-05:00April 6th, 2020|

As I discussed in Weekly Analysis: Softs this past weekend, both old-crop July and new-crop December contracts looked to be turning a bullish corner on their respective weekly charts. Beyond that, though, both were showing recently established minor (short term) [...]

Cash Corn: The Long Short

2020-04-02T15:58:17-05:00April 2nd, 2020|

One of the charts I talked about in Wednesday's cmdty by Barchart webinar was the monthly study for the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national cash average). This is a critical market for the grain and oilseed complex [...]

The Euro: A Seesaw Scenario

2020-04-01T06:28:15-05:00April 1st, 2020|

I was watching Tuesday's action in currencies closely, with both the U.S. dollar index (USDX) and euro hovering near the fulcrum wide monthly ranges. Reads on major (long term) trends hinged on the respective closes in relation to those posted [...]

May Soybeans: A Minor Downturn

2020-03-26T05:23:28-05:00March 26th, 2020|

The May soybean contract continues to follow its technical patterns relatively well. Overnight through early Wednesday morning swath contract hit a high of $8.97, a test of the next price target of $8.97 1/4. The latter marks the 50% retracement [...]

RBOB-Ethanol: Breaking Down

2020-03-23T14:37:02-05:00March 23rd, 2020|

Recently, I've mentioned a number of times how the three legs of domestic corn demand are weakening. Monday's session showed one of these legs, ethanol, taking another potential hit as the nearby futures contract continued to gain ground on the [...]

US 10-Year T-Note: Noted

2020-03-19T05:18:38-05:00March 19th, 2020|

A couple weeks ago, I posted an initial look at the continuous monthly chart for the nearby futures contract of the US 10-Year T-Note (March 4, "Take Note of the 10-Year T-Note") in response to a question I had received. [...]

Soybean Meal: Remember When

2020-03-18T14:51:03-05:00March 18th, 2020|

Remember when the biggest news hitting markets was the Argentine government implementing new export taxes, a move that sparked a quick rally in soybean meal and soybeans. However, that news was quickly quarantined as the world turned its attention to [...]

Cash Corn: Coldcocked

2020-03-17T15:04:47-05:00March 17th, 2020|

This is a tough chart to post, knowing a number of folks still hold some of 2019's cash corn. However, the last two days have seen the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national cash average) break to a [...]

Dec Cotton: Another Option

2020-03-11T09:08:51-05:00March 11th, 2020|

Similar to Tuesday's Chart of the Day, Wednesday's edition takes a look at recent changes in the Theoretical Position for December new-crop cotton, as discussed in the latest Weekly Analysis (posted Sunday, March 8). In it, a short sale of [...]

Euro Wild One

2020-03-03T06:28:52-06:00March 3rd, 2020|

For those of you keeping an eye on the euro, like so many other markets it has been wild of last. As this continuous daily close-only chart for the nearby futures contract shows the euro confirmed a minor (short term) [...]

Cash Soybeans: Wave Watching

2020-02-25T07:07:00-06:00February 25th, 2020|

Much of what I write about this week will have to do with what the various cmdty National Price Indexes (weighted national averages) are telling us about real U.S. ending stocks-to-use (bottom line supply and demand). I'm going to get [...]

March Soybeans: Crazy Eights

2020-02-12T15:35:25-06:00February 12th, 2020|

As I mentioned in Afternoon Commentary, the March soybean contract has closed higher the last 8 sessions, a span covering the month of February. It's interesting to note this also coincides with how long China is past its Lunar New [...]