Old-Crop 2021-2022 Secondary (Intermediate-term) Trend: Up March posted a new contract high of 129.37 last week However, the contract's short-term trend looks to be in the process of turning down Fundamentals: Bullish March-May futures spread remains inverted, closing Friday at [...]

New-crop December 2022 cotton posted a new contract high of 97.25 last week, extending its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. However, Friday's close at 96.83 was enough off the high for weekly stochastics to establish a bearish crossover above the overbought level [...]

Old-crop March cotton still looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. The recent minor (short-term) uptrend looks to be Wave B (second wave) of the secondary 3-wave downtrend. While the minor trend remains up, it would complete a bearish [...]

Market Type: 3 (Less Bearish) Secondary Trend: Down March cotton broke to a new 4-week low below 110.81 the week of November 29. The minor (short-term) trend has turned up, a move that would be considered Wave B (second wave) [...]

Market Type: 3 (Less Bearish) Trends Secondary (intermediate-term): Down Dec cotton posted a new contract high of 96.71 last week before closing at 93.10, down 1.22 for the week This established a bearish spike reversal on the contracts weekly chart, [...]

New-crop December 2021 Trend Minor: Up Dec cotton posted a new 4-day high last Friday, confirming a new minor uptrend. The upside target area is between 84.33 and 85.06. Secondary: Down Noncommercial traders continue to liquidate their net-long futures position. [...]

Old-Crop Cotton (May) Weekly Close: 80.38, down 4.30 cents Secondary Trend: Down May-July Futures Spread: 1.03 cents carry, Bearish Analysis: May cotton extended its secondary downtrend to a low of 77.12 last week before rallying. Friday saw the contract post [...]

Old-Crop Cotton (May) Weekly Close: 84.68, down 2.88 cents Secondary Trend: Down Noncommercial Position (as of Tuesday, March 16): Net-long 84,949 contracts, up 2,588 contracts May-July Futures Spread: 1.04 cents carry, Bearish Analysis: May cotton posted an inside range last [...]

Old-Crop Cotton (May) Weekly Close: 87.56, down 0.20 cent Secondary Trend: Down Noncommercial Position (as of Tuesday, March 9): 82,361 contracts net-long, down 9,214 contracts May-July Futures Spread: 1.01 cents carry, Bearish Analysis: May cotton extended its secondary downtrend to [...]

Old-Crop Cotton Futures: March 2021 Weekly Close: 87.27, up 4.53 cents Secondary Trend: Up Noncommercial Position (as of Tuesday, February 9): 91,704 contracts net-long, up 17,799 contracts March-May Futures Spread: 1.39 cents carry, Bearish Analysis: March cotton posted a new [...]

Cotton  (Old-Crop Futures, New-Crop Futures): Minor (short-term) Trend: Sideways Secondary (intermediate-term) Trend: Up* Noncommercial Futures Position (as of 01/05/21): Net-long 79,423, a decrease of 2,481 contracts from the previous week. Futures Spreads: Bearish. The March-May spread is trending down meaning [...]

Cotton  (Old-Crop Futures, New-Crop Futures): Secondary Trend: Up Noncommercial Futures Position (as of 01/05/21): Net-long 83,978, an increase of 2,822 contracts from the previous week. Futures Spreads: Bearish. The March-May spread is trending down meaning its carry is getting stronger. [...]

Old-Crop Cotton Futures: March 2021 Weekly Close: 77.16, up 3.08 cents Secondary Trend: Up Noncommercial Position (as of Tuesday, Dec. 15): 81,341 contracts net-long, up 13,381 contracts March-May Futures Spread: 0.67 cent carry, Neutral Analysis: The March contract extended its [...]

Cotton December 2020 Weekly Close: 68.62, down 0.30. Secondary Trend: Down. Dec-March Spread: 1.53 carry = Bearish. Market Type: 1 = Most Bearish. Price Distribution: Upper 46% = Neutral. Target: 64.04. Analysis: The contract extended its secondary downtrend last week [...]

Cotton December 2020 Weekly Close: 68.92, down 2.37. Secondary Trend: Down. Dec-March Spread: 0.86 carry = Neutral. Market Type: 2 = Bearish. Price Distribution: Upper 43% = Neutral. Target: 64.04. Analysis: Dec cotton extended the previous uptrend to a high [...]

Cotton December 2020 Weekly Close: 71.29, up 1.37. Secondary Trend: Up. Dec-March Spread: 0.58 carry = Neutral. Market Type: 8 = Bullish. Price Distribution: Upper 35% = Neutral. Target: 73.00. Analysis: Dec cotton extended its secondary uptrend last week to [...]

Cotton December 2020 Weekly Close: 65.82, down 0.13. Secondary Trend: Sideways. Dec-March Spread: (-0.81) = Bearish. Market Type: 4 = Neutral-Bearish. Price Distribution: Lower 43% = Neutral. Target:None at this time. Analysis: Dec cotton remains in a secondary sideways trend [...]

Cotton December 2020 Weekly Close: 65.08, up 0.80. Secondary Trend: Up. Dec-March Spread: (-0.85) = Neutral. Market Type: 8 = Bullish. Price Distribution: Lower 38% = Bullish. Target: 68.98. Analysis: Dec cotton extended its secondary uptrend to a new 4-week [...]

Cotton December 2020 closed at 64.28, up 1.43 for the week. Trends: Secondary = Sideways. Targets: Secondary = None at this time. Analysis: Dec cotton continues to consolidate between the 4-week high of 65.05 and support at the recent secondary [...]

Cotton December 2020 closed at 62.85, up 0.49 for the week. Trends: Secondary = Sideways. Targets: Secondary = 65.05 and 59.51. Analysis: Dec cotton consolidated between resistance at the 4-week high of 65.05 and support at the 4-week low of [...]

Cotton December 2020 closed at 62.66, up 2.56 for the week. Trends: Secondary = Sideways. Targets: Secondary = 64.28. Analysis: The contract could continue to consolidate between the 4-week high of 64.90 and 4-week low of 59.51. A minor rally [...]

Cotton December 2020 closed at 61.94, down 2.37 for the week. Trends: Minor = Down. Secondary = Up. Targets: Minor = 59.28 to 55.80. Secondary = 64.28. Analysis: New-crop Dec cotton rolled over into a minor downtrend last week, after [...]

Cotton December 2020 closed at 64.31, up 1.36 for the week. Trends: Secondary = Up. Targets: Secondary = 61.59 to 64.28. Analysis: New-crop cotton extended its secondary uptrend beyond the target of 64.28, hitting a high of 64.90 last week. [...]

Cotton December 2020 closed at 59.50, down 0.31 for the week. Trends: Secondary = Up. Targets: Secondary = 61.59 to 64.28. Analysis: Though the secondary trend remains up, the contract continues to consolidate below the next upside target of 61.59 [...]

Cotton July 2020 closed at 61.56, up 1.72 for the week. Trends: Secondary = Up. Targets: Secondary = 64.13. Analysis: The contract remains in a secondary uptrend, though weekly stochastics have climbed above the overbought level of 80%, in position [...]

Cotton July 2020 closed at 61.79, up 4.20 for the week. Trends: Minor = Up but overbought. Secondary = Up. Targets: Secondary = 64.39. Conclusion: The secondary uptrend continues to gain momentum. Theoretical Position: 2019 production is 100% sold. Cotton [...]

Cotton July 2020: The contract closed at 57.59, down 0.02 for the week. Old-crop cotton remains in a secondary uptrend while its minor trend remains down. This minor trend looks to be Wave 2 of the secondary 5-wave uptrend pattern [...]

Cotton July 2020: The contract closed at 57.61, down 0.64 for the week. Old-crop cotton extended its secondary uptrend to a high of 59.85 last week, just short of its next upside target of 61.07. The latter marks the 50% [...]

Cotton July 2020: The contract closed at 56.27, up 0.43 for the week. Old-crop cotton remains in a secondary uptrend, with initial resistance at the 4-week high of 57.98. However, the minor trend still looks to be down, meaning the [...]

Cotton July 2020: The contract closed at 55.63, up 2.77 for the week. The contract remains in a secondary uptrend with the initial upside target at 58.02. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from 74.00 [...]

Cotton July 2020: The contract closed at 52.86, down 1.54 for the week. While the secondary trend remains up, the minor trend turned down last week. This could be viewed as Wave 2 of the secondary 5-wave pattern meaning a [...]

Cotton July 2020: The contract closed at 54.40, up 3.42 for the week. Both the minor and secondary trends are up, with the secondary following through on the previous week’s bullish crossover by weekly stochastics. The initial secondary upside target [...]

Cotton July 2020: The contract closed at 50.98, down 0.30 for the week. I’ve rolled the analysis to the July contract given secondary signals indicating the end of the previous secondary downtrend could be near. Last week saw weekly stochastics [...]

Cotton May 2020: The contract closed at 51.33, down 2.35 for the week. May cotton extended its secondary (intermediate term) downtrend to a new contract low of 50.68 last week. This was the lowest price for the nearby futures contract [...]

Cotton May 2020: The contract closed at 53.68, down 6.81 for the week. May cotton extended its secondary (intermediate term) downtrend to a new contract low of 53.20 last week. This was the lowest price for the nearby futures contract [...]

Cotton May 2020: The contract closed at 60.40, don 2.30 for the week. May cotton extended its secondary (intermediate term) downtrend to a new contract low of 58.57 last week. This pulled weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%, [...]

Cotton May 2020: The contract closed at 62.79, up 1.30 for the week. Despite the higher weekly close, May cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate term) downtrend. However, the previous week’s sharp sell-off technically completed the 3-wave pattern with its [...]

Cotton May 2020: The contract closed at 61.49, down 7.51 for the week. New-crop December cotton extended its secondary (intermediate term) downtrend to a low of 60.18 last week. Next secondary support is the contract low of 58.84 from the [...]

Cotton May 2020: The contract closed at 69.00, up 0.59 for the week. May cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate term) downtrend with the recent minor (short term) uptrend Wave B (second wave) within the secondary 3-wave pattern. Secondary downside [...]

Cotton May 2020: The contract closed at 68.41, up 0.27 for the week. May cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate term) downtrend with the recent minor (short term) uptrend Wave B (second wave) within the secondary 3-wave pattern. Given that, [...]

Cotton March 2020: The contract closed at 67.75, up 0.25 for the week. Despite the higher weekly close, March cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate term) downtrend with a target area between 66.49 and 63.12. These prices mark the 38.2% [...]

Cotton March 2020: The contract closed at 67.50, down 1.90 for the week. The March contract extended its secondary (intermediate term) downtrend to 67.40 last week. The initial downside target area is between 66.49 and 63.12, prices that marks the [...]

Cotton March 2020: The contract closed at 69.50, down 1.85 for the week. The March contract followed through on the previous week’s bearish spike reversal, extending its recently established secondary (intermediate term) downtrend to 69.40. The initial downside target area [...]

Cotton March 2020: The contract closed at 71.25, down 0.06 for the week. After extending its secondary (intermediate term) uptrend to a high of 71.96, March cotton closed lower last week. This move could be classified as a bearish spike [...]

Cotton March 2020: The contract closed at 71.31, up 2.11 for the week. March cotton extended its secondary (intermediate term) uptrend to a high of 71.39 last week, moving beyond and closing above the next upside target at 70.84. This [...]

Cotton March 2020: The contract closed at 69.20, up 0.28 for the week. March cotton extended its secondary (intermediate term) uptrend to a high of 68.50 last week, with the next upside target at 70.84. This price marks the 50% [...]

Cotton March 2020: The contract closed at 68.92, up 0.96 for the week. March cotton extended its secondary (intermediate term) uptrend to a high of 69.34 last week, with the next upside target at 70.84. This price marks the 50% [...]

Cotton March 2020: The contract closed at 66.80, up 0.80 for the week. March cotton posted a bullish breakout of its recent consolidation between the high of 67.13 (week of October 28) and low of 63.70 (week of November 18). [...]

Cotton March 2020: The contract closed at 66.00, up 0.64 for the week. The March contract continues to move sideways, consolidating below its recent high of 67.13 (week of October 28) and low of 63.70 (week of November 18). Given [...]

Cotton March 2020: The contract closed at 65.36, up 0.51for the week. Despite a higher weekly close the March contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Last week saw the contract post an inside trading range, supported by light commercial [...]

Cotton March 2020: The contract closed at 64.85, down 1.84 for the week. The March contract confirmed a move to a new secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend by posting a new 4-week low of 63.70. This move was signaled by a bearish [...]

Cotton December 2019: The contract closed at 64.72, up 0.49 for the week. Despite the higher weekly close, Dec cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate term) downtrend following the recent bearish key reversal on its weekly chart. However, if the [...]

Cotton December 2019: The contract closed at 64.23, down 0.67 for the week. Dec cotton looks to have rolled to a secondary (intermediate term) downtrend last week as it posted a bearish key reversal on its weekly chart. This was [...]

Cotton December 2019: The contract closed at 64.90, down 0.26 for the week. Dec cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate term) uptrend, posting a neutral inside trading range last week. The initial upside target is 67.27, a price that marks [...]

Cotton December 2019: The contract closed at 65.16, up 1.28 for the week. Dec cotton extended its secondary (intermediate term) uptrend last week to a new 4-week high of 65.85. The initial upside target remains 67.27, a price that marks [...]

Cotton December 2019: The contract closed at 63.88, up 2.21 for the week. Dec cotton extended its secondary (intermediate term) uptrend last week to a new 4-week high of 64.00. The initial upside target is at 67.27, a price that [...]

Cotton December 2019: The contract closed at 61.67, up 0.77 for the week. Dec cotton still looks to be in Wave 3 of its secondary (intermediate term) 5-wave uptrend, though needing a move beyond the Wave 1 peak of 63.39 [...]

Cotton December 2019: The contract closed at 60.90, up 0.38 for the week. Wave 2 of Dec cotton’s 5-wave secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend looks to have come to an end last week. The weekly low of 59.58 was a test of [...]

Cotton December 2019: The contract closed at 60.52, down 1.76 for the week. Despite its lower weekly close, Dec cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. However, its minor (short-term) trend remains down with next support at 59.99, then 59.19. [...]

Cotton December 2019: The contract closed at 62.28, up 3.70 for the week. As discussed last week in this space, Dec cotton bolted to a new secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend as it easily cleared resistance at its previous 4-week high of [...]

Cotton December 2019 (new-crop): The contract closed at 58.58, down 0.25 for the week. Dec cotton consolidated last week, holding between its 4-week high of 60.25 and 4-week low (also contract low) of 56.59. Weekly stochastics remain below the oversold [...]

Cotton December 2019 (new-crop): The contract closed at 58.21, down 1.92 for the week. Dec cotton is consolidating above its recently established contract low of 57.26. However, the contract was unable to follow-through on the previous week’s bullish signals, keeping [...]

Cotton December 2019 (new-crop): The contract closed at 60.13, up 1.23 for the week. It could still be argued that new-crop cotton is in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend based on the bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level [...]

Cotton December 2019 (new-crop): The contract closed at 58.90, down 0.52 for the week. Though it was not able to close higher for the week, it could still be argued Dec cotton established a secondary (intermediate-term) bullish spike reversal last [...]

Cotton December 2019 (new-crop): The contract closed at 59.42, down 5.12 for the week. Dec cotton collapsed to a new contract low of 59.37 last week, marking the lowest price for a December cotton contract since April 2016. Much of [...]

Cotton December 2019 (new-crop): The contract closed at 64.54, up 1.47 for the week. Dec cotton followed up the previous week’s bullish technical signals with a higher close near the weekly peak of 64.68. This continues to indicate the secondary [...]

Cotton December 2019 (new-crop): The contract closed at 63.07, up 0.39 for the week. The argument could be made that new-crop cotton posted a bullish spike reversal last week, falling to a new low of 61.66 before closing higher. This [...]

Cotton December 2019 (new-crop): The contract closed at 62.68, down 4.14 for the week. New-crop December collapsed last week following the previous week’s bullish move to a new 4-week high. The fall to a new low of 62.60 dropped weekly [...]

Cotton December 2019 (new-crop): The contract closed at 66.82, up 0.74 for the week. New-crop December posted a new 4-week high of 68.35 last week, confirming a move to a new secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Weekly stochastics established a bullish crossover [...]

Cotton December 2019 (new-crop): The contract closed at 66.08, up 0.52 for the week. New-crop December continues to consolidate above its recent low of 64.70. Also, weekly stochastics remain below the oversold level of 20%, with the most recent signal [...]

Cotton July 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 61.19, down 4.75 for the week. July cotton extended the major (long-term) downtrend on the market’s continuous monthly chart to the lowest price (60.27) since May 2016. Major support is near 57.05, [...]

Cotton July 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 65.94, up 035 for the week. July cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend, with last week’s low of 64.85 holding above the previous low of 64.50. The higher weekly close [...]

Cotton July 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 65.59, down 2.49 for the week. Despite another lower weekly close it could still be argued that old-crop cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend. However, the ongoing move looks to [...]

Cotton July 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 68.08, down 0.31 for the week. Despite the lower weekly close it could still be argued that old-crop cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend. Fridays saw the contract post a [...]

Cotton July 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 68.39, up 2.40 for the week. Old-crop cotton looks to have stabilized as it held above the previous week’s low of 64.50 last week. Still, last week’s rally pulled weekly stochastics back [...]

Cotton July 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 65.99, down 2.46 for the week. Old-crop cotton extended its secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend to a new low of $64.50 last week, before rallying slightly into Friday’s close. Still, weekly stochastics are not [...]

Cotton July 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 75.68, down 2.02 for the week. The contract remains in a minor (short-term) downtrend on its daily chart with secondary (intermediate-term) support at 75.10. This price marks the 61.8% retracement level of [...]

Cotton July 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 77.70, down 0.57 for the week. The contract consolidated within the previous week’s trading range last week before closing lower. Despite the recent bearish crossover by weekly stochastics, the door remains open [...]

Cotton July 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 78.27, down 0.59 for the week. July cotton followed-through on the previous week’s bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%, posting a weekly low of 76.30 before rallying. [...]

Cotton May 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 78.11, down 0.14 for the week. May cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, posting another new 4-week high of 79.31 last week before closing lower. This led to a bearish crossover [...]

Cotton May 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 78.25, up 0.64 for the week. May cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, posting another new 4-week high of 78.48 last week. Next resistance is near 79.90, a price that marks [...]

Cotton May 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 77.61, up 1.03 for the week. May cotton remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, posting another new 4-week high of 77.98 last week. Next resistance is near 79.90, a price that marks the [...]

Cotton May 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 76.58, up 1.08 for the week. May cotton posted a bullish breakout last week, moving to a new 4-week high of 77.82 before closing above initial resistance near 76.50. This price marks the [...]

Cotton May 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 75.50, up 2.01 for the week. May cotton continues to build bullish momentum, moving to a new 4-week high of 74.90 last week (see chart). This looks to be the breakout to [...]

Cotton May 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 73.49, down 0.36 for the week. May cotton’s secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be sideways with support at the 4-week low of 71.01 and resistance the 4-week high of 75.16. Beyond [...]

Cotton May 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 73.85, up 0.84 for the week. For now, I’m going to call old-crop cotton’s secondary (intermediate-term) trend sideways, with support at the recent low of 71.01 and resistance the previous week’s high [...]

Cotton May 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 73.01, up 1.15 for the week. The May contract looks to be in position to establish a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend after holding above the previous week’s low of 71.01. Still, no clear [...]

Cotton March 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 70.22, down 2.33 for the week. I’ll finish off the analysis of March cotton this week as the May now holds the most open interest. March posted a disappointing week, falling to [...]

Cotton March 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 72.55, down 1.09 for the week. Despite the lower weekly close March cotton still looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend. As stated last week, the bearish spike reversal looked [...]

Cotton March 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 73.64, down 0.49 for the week. Old-crop cotton still looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend, with last week’s bearish spike reversal looking to be the Wave 1 peak. If [...]

Cotton March 2019 (old-crop): The contract closed at 74.13, up 0.24 for the week. Technically it could still be argued that old-crop cotton is in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, though the contract has done little but post a modest rally [...]