Changes in livestock futures spreads from month to month paint the picture of how market fundamentals are moving. Live Cattle The five major futures spreads were all near or below previous 5-year low weekly closes last week, meaning fundamentals remain [...]
I pulled the Cost of Carry tables for corn, soybeans, and the three wheat futures markets at the end of April. As I’ve talked about in frequently, and again in Monthly Analysis of the individual markets, futures spreads remain bullish [...]
The bottom-line supply and demand number is stocks-to-use (s/u). I’ve long said stocks-to-use is the Readers’ Digest version of supply and demand, in that this one number can tell us the bullishness, bearishness, or neutrality of a market’s fundamentals. I’ve [...]
I pulled the Cost of Carry tables for corn, soybeans, and the three wheat futures markets at the end of March. As I've talked about in frequently, and again in Monthly Analysis of the individual markets, futures spreads remain bullish [...]
The bottom-line supply and demand number is stocks-to-use (s/u). I’ve long said stocks-to-use is the Readers’ Digest version of supply and demand, in that this one number can tell us the bullishness, bearishness, or neutrality of a market’s fundamentals. I’ve [...]
The bottom-line supply and demand number is stocks-to-use (s/u). I’ve long said stocks-to-use are the Readers’ Digest version of supply and demand, in that one number can tell us the bullishness, bearishness, or neutrality of a market’s fundamentals. I’ve also [...]
The bottom-line supply and demand number is stocks-to-use (s/u). I’ve long said stocks-to-use are the Readers’ Digest version of supply and demand, in that one number can tell us the bullishness, bearishness, or neutrality of a market’s fundamentals. I’ve also [...]
The bottom-line supply and demand number is stocks-to-use (s/u). I’ve long said stocks-to-use are the Readers’ Digest version of supply and demand, in that one number can tell us the bullishness, bearishness, or neutrality of a market’s fundamentals. I’ve also [...]
The bottom-line supply and demand number is stocks-to-use (s/u). I’ve long said stocks-to-use are the Readers’ Digest version of supply and demand, in that one number can tell us the bullishness, bearishness, or neutrality of a market’s fundamentals. I’ve also [...]
The bottom-line supply and demand number is stocks-to-use (s/u). I’ve long said stocks-to-use are the Readers’ Digest version of supply and demand, in that one number can tell us the bullishness, bearishness, or neutrality of a market’s fundamentals. I’ve also [...]
The bottom-line supply and demand number is stocks-to-use (s/u). I've long said stocks-to-use are the Readers' Digest version of supply and demand, in that one number can tell us the bullishness, bearishness, or neutrality of a market's fundamentals. I've also [...]
While I'm not usually one for uniformity, there is something compelling about the consistency of this monthly corn stocks-to-use chart. As the 2020-2021 marketing year came to an end with the close of August, the cmdty National Corn Price Index [...]
In the US soybean market, the end of August means not only the end of Silly Season when it comes to national average basis, but also the end of a quarter and the end of the marketing year. The daily [...]
The end of August also meant the end of 2021-2022 Q1 for US wheat markets, though I know spring wheat harvest is not completed yet. Using the weighted average I've created for the three major cmdty National Wheat Price Indexes, [...]
With one month remaining in the 2020-2021 US corn marketing year, the daily average price for the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) at the end of July was $5.15. Using the correlation between cash [...]
With one month remaining in the 2020-2021 US soybean marketing year, the daily average price for the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) at the end of July was $12.79. Using the correlation between cash [...]
Two months into the 2021-2022 and the all wheat supply and demand situation continues to tighten. My analysis of the cmdty National Wheat Price Indexes for HRW, HRS, and SRW is showing a daily average of $6.55 through the end [...]
My calculation of US corn stocks-to-use continued to tighten at the end of June with the 2020-2021 marketing year daily average price for the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) coming in at $5.02 as [...]
Based on my end of May calculation using 2020-2021 marketing year daily averages for the cmdty National Price Indexes for SRW, HRS, and HRW, domestic wheat ending stocks-to-use came in at 39.1%. This was based on the final combined index [...]
My calculation of US corn stocks-to-use continued to tighten at the end of May with the 2020-2021 marketing year daily average price for the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) coming in at $4.83 as [...]
Based on my end of the month calculation using 2020-2021 marketing year average for the cmdty National Soybean Price Indexes, US stocks-to-use at the end of May continued to tighten. The NSPI showed a daily average of $12.46 for the [...]
My calculation of US corn stocks-to-use continued to tighten at the end of April, with the 2020-2021 marketing year daily average price for the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) coming in at $4.59 as [...]
Based on my end of the month calculation using 2020-2021 marketing year average for the cmdty National Soybean Price Indexes, US stocks-to-use at the end of April continued to tighten. The NSPI showed a daily average of $12.10 for the [...]
Based on my end of the month calculation using 2020-2021 marketing year averages for the cmdty National Price Indexes for SRW, HRS, and HRW, domestic wheat stocks-to-use at the end of April continued to decrease. The combined cash price index [...]
My calculation of US corn stocks-to-use continued to tighten at the end of March, with the 2020-2021 marketing year daily average price for the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) coming in at $4.38 as [...]
Based on my end of the month calculation using 2020-2021 marketing year average for the cmdty National Soybean Price Indexes, US stocks-to-use at the end of March continued to tighten. The NSPI showed a daily average of $11.76 for the [...]
Based on my end of the month calculation using 2020-2021 marketing year averages for the cmdty National Price Indexes for SRW, HRS, and HRW, domestic wheat stocks-to-use at the end of March continued to decrease. The combined cash price index [...]
My calculation of domestic corn monthly stocks-to-use continues to tighten, based on analysis of the marketing year average of the cmdty National Corn Price Index. The end of February saw the NCPI averaging $4.21 (green line), as compared to the [...]
Based on my end of the month calculation using 2020-2021 marketing year average for the cmdty National Soybean Price Indexes, US stocks-to-use at the end of February continued to tighten. The NSPI showed a daily average of $11.38 for the [...]
Based on my end of the month calculation using 2020-2021 marketing year averages for the cmdty National Price Indexes for SRW, HRS, and HRW, domestic wheat stocks-to-use at the end of February continued to decrease. The combined cash price index [...]
My calculation of domestic corn monthly stocks-to-use continues to tighten, based on analysis of the marketing year average of the cmdty National Corn Price Index. The end of January saw this price come in at $4.01 (green line), as compared [...]
Based on my end of the month calculation using 2020-2021 marketing year average for the cmdty National Soybean Price Indexes, US stocks-to-use at the end of January was still decreasing at a rapid pace. The NSPI is showing a daily [...]
Based on my end of the month calculation using 2020-2021 marketing year averages for the cmdty National Price Indexes for SRW, HRS, and HRW, domestic wheat stocks-to-use at the end of January showed another solid decrease. The combined cash price [...]
My calculation of domestic corn monthly stocks-to-use continues to tighten, based on analysis of the marketing year average of the cmdty National Corn Price Index. The end of December saw this price come in at $3.81 (green line), as compared [...]
Based on my end of the month calculation using 2020-2021 marketing year averages for the cmdty National Price Indexes for SRW, HRS, and HRW, domestic wheat stocks-to-use at the end of December showed another decrease. The combined cash price index [...]
I went a different route this month, discussing US soybean fundamentals with what looks to be a technical trend chart. What I want to focus on, though, is how the 2020-2021 marketing year path of the cmdty National Soybean Price [...]
In its December round of Supply and Demand reports USDA estimated US soybean 2020-2021 ending stocks at 175 mb, down 15 mb from its November estimate. The change was due to a like increase in demand, all of it in [...]
In its December round of Supply and Demand reports USDA left US corn 2020-2021 ending stocks at 1.702 bb, unchanged from its November estimate. In fact, it looks like USDA's corn economists have already headed home for the holidays with [...]
In its December round of Supply and Demand reports USDA estimated US ending stocks at 862 mb, down 15 mb from its November estimate. Total supplies were reduced by 5 mb due to a like cut in imports while demand [...]
At the midpoint of the 2020-2021 marketing year for wheat, particularly the winter wheat markets of Kansas City (HRW) and Chicago (SRW), we see the daily average of the three major cmdty National Wheat Price Indexes calculated at $4.70 on [...]
Unlike the corn market, getting a read on US soybean supply and demand is a bit more difficult. The most reliable method I have at this time is a study of futures spreads, in this case the remaining spreads making [...]
At the close of November, the daily average of the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) for the 2020-2021 marketing year was calculated at $3.67. Based on my analysis back through the 2010-2011 marketing year, [...]
Because of the wide range we've seen over the last few months, I'm posting a different look at similar analysis for soybean monthly stocks-to-use. For this study, the 2020-2021 marketing year average daily price of the cmdty National Soybean Price [...]
The month of October saw the combined daily average of the cmdty National Price Indexes for soft red winter (SRW), hard red spring (HRS), and hard red winter (HRW) jump to $4.60 from the previous month's calculation of $4.45. This [...]
I saw where USDA held a virtual users' meeting recently, where official made up excuses as to why the government keeps making up and revising its quarterly stocks numbers. I have a three-word answer for them, "I don't care." The [...]
One of the most talked about aspects of this past Wednesday's USDA Quarterly Stocks report was the government's "misplacing" of roughly 260 mb from its September Supply and Demand report, released 3 weeks prior, with the September 1 stocks on [...]
As August came to a close, my analysis of the cmdty National Wheat Price Indexes (weighted national average cash prices) for hard red winter, hard red spring, and soft red winter wheat markets. I run a continuous daily running average, [...]
Before I begin, let me clear a couple things up: I am still in therapy for my inherent bearish soybeans toward soybeans. After I post this piece, it may be time for an intervention. If you are a US soybean [...]
The final calculations are in for the Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. (DNAI) 2019-2020 corn ending stocks-to-use (es/u). Monday's calculation of the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) at $3.2775 put the marketing year daily average [...]
