Live Cattle futures spreads: Bullish

  • The August-October closed July at $4.50
    • as compared to the end of June settlement of $5.775
    • with the previous 5-year high weekly close for the last week of July at $3.50
  • The October-December closed July at $0.30
    • as compared to the end of June settlement at $0.275
    • with the previous 5-year average weekly close for the last week of July at (-$0.125)
  • The December-February closed July at $0.075
    • as compared to the end of June settlement at (-$0.475)
    • with the previous 5-year high weekly close for the last week at July at (-$0.625)
  • Bottom Line: Futures spreads continue to indicate a bullish supply and demand situation short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term. Based on Rule #6 (Fundamentals win in the end), this makes Rule #1 (Don’t get crossways with the trend) more difficult given the futures market moved to a long-term downtrend at the end of May, from a technical point of view (see Monthly Analysis).

Feeder Cattle futures spreads: Bullish

  • The August-September closed July at $4.25
    • as compared to the end of June settlement of $2.075
  • The September-October closed July at $8.425
    • as compared to the end of June settlement of $2.875
  • The August-October spread closed July at $12.675
    • as compared to the previous 5-year high weekly close for the last week of July of $3.075 from 2024
  • Bottom Line: Commercial traders continued to support the feeder cattle market with big gains seen across the board in futures spreads.
  • As with live cattle, the major (long-term) trend of the futures market still looks to be down, initially from October 2025 then May 2025 (see Monthly Analysis).

Lean Hogs futures spreads: Mixed

  • The August-October closed July at $14.00
    • as compared to the end of June settlement at $16.20
    • and the previous 5-year low weekly close for the last week of July at $18.00
  • The October-December closed July at $9.175
    • as compared to the end of June settlement at $8.375
    • with the previous 5-year high weekly close for the last week of July at $9.375
  • The December-February closed July at (-$3.025)
    • as compared to the end of June settlement at (-$3.70)
    • with the previous 5-year average weekly close for the last week of July at (-$3.60)
  • Bottom Line: I’m not sure what to make of Lean Hog futures spreads at the end of July given the first three spreads all show different commercial readings (Bearish, Bullish, and Neutral). That being said, the short-term view remains bearish.