Corn futures spreads: Neutral-Bullish

  • September-December closed August covering a bearish 72%
    • as compared to the end of July 76%
    • and the 2025 edition finishing August 2025 covering 73%
    • inducing the US had ample supplies on hand to meet demand, similar to what was seen last year
  • December-March closed August covering a neutral 47%
    • as compared to the end of July of 53%
    • While the percent covered weakened, as the 2026 US harvest gets underway we could see a Down Escalator Simulator develop
  • March-May closed July covering a bullish 28%
    • as compared to the end of July at a neutral 42%
  • May-July closed July covering a bullish 6%
    • as compared to the end of July 22%
  • Bottom Line: Deferred spreads remain bullish, with the May-July in position to go inverted, indicating increased concern from the commercial side over longer-term supplies in relation to demand.

Soybean futures spreads: Neutral-Bullish

  • November-January closed August covering a neutral 52%
    • as compared to the end of July of 49%
    • Indicating the commercial side is generally comfortable with initial harvest supplies in relation to demand.
  • January-March closed August covering a bullish 21%
    • as compared to the end of July 12%
    • The commercial side grew a little more comfortable with the intermediate-term outlook as well.
  • March-May closed August covering a bullish 17%
    • as compared to the end of July 20%
    • The general trend of more concern regarding Brazil’s 2027 crop continued during August
  • May-July closed August covering a bullish 9%
    • as compared to the end of July 13%
    • If there is a problem with Brazil’s 2027 crop, it could lead to stronger demand for US supplies next spring/summer.
  • Bottom Line: There continues to be concern over global supply and demand, particularly with Brazil’s 2027 crop and an expected increase in demand from China.

SRW Wheat futures spreads: Neutral-Bullish

  • September-December closed August covering a bearish-leaning 67%
    • as compared to the end of July 75%
  • December-March closed August  covering a neutral 56%
    • as compared to the end of July of 70%
  • March-May closed August covering a bullish 29%
    • as compared to the end of July 47%
  • The new-crop Jul26-Sept27 spread covered a bullish 6%
  • Bottom Line: SRW futures spreads continue to indicate the world is not going to run out of wheat. However, deferred spreads have turned bullish. We will see how much of this is due to lower trade volume and open interest.

HRW Wheat futures spreads: Neutral-Bullish

  • September-December closed August covering a neutral-to-bearish 66%
    • as compared to the end of July 64%
  • December-March closed covering a neutral 50%
    • as compared to the end of July of 50%
  • March-May closed covering a bullish 20%
    • as compared to the end of July 29%
  • The new-crop Jul26-Sept27 spread closed August at an inverse of 2.25 cents
  • Bottom Line: Time will tell if the long-term supply and demand situation is as bullish as deferred futures spreads indicate, or if the end of August was a function of lower trade volume and open interest.

HRS Wheat futures spreads: Neutral-Bearish

  • September-December closed August covering a bearish 73%
    • as compared to the end of July 79%
  • December-March closed covering a neutral-to-bearish 60%
    • as compared to the end of June of 54%
  • March-May closed July covering a neutral 47%
    • as compared to the end of June 47%
  • Bottom Line: The carry in the Dec-March futures spread should strengthen during September as the 2026 harvest continues to progress.