I’ve changed my monthly discussion of real month-end fundamentals for the various grain markets. I’m simplifying the conversation by applying the Law of Supply and Demand: Market Price is the point where the quantity demanded equals quantities available creating a market equilibrium. My take on this Law is tweaked by looking at “available supplies” rather than “total supplies”, an important distinction in the Grains sector given supplies can be held off the market in on-farm or commercial storage. If we consider the three variables in the equation (Market Price = Supply, Demand) the only one known is Market Price. Therefore, a study of Market Price is all that is needed to understand the relationship between the unknown variables of Supply and Demand.
CORN: The National Corn Index (NCI) was calculated near $4.20 at the end of May putting available stocks-to-use (as/u) at 12.6%. The end of February saw the NCI at $4.27 with as/u of 12.4% and May 2024 at $4.26 and 12.4%. As Q3 came to an end, the NCI was trending down indicating supplies were outdistancing demand. Historically, the May 2025 as/u of 12.6% was the largest Q3 figure since 2020’s 14.8 and larger than the previous 10-year average of 12.2%.
SOYBEANS: The National Soybean Index (NSI) was calculated near $9.92 at the end of May putting available stocks-to-use (as/u) at 15.5%. The end of February saw the NSI at $9.52 with as/u of 17.4% and May 2024 at $11.43 and 10.2%. Historically, the May 2025 as/u of 15.5% was the largest Q3 figure since 2020’s 26.7 and larger than the previous 10-year average of 12.2%. It should also be noted it was at least half-again as large as Q3 last year.
SRW WHEAT: The National SRW Wheat Index (SWI) was calculated near $4.80 at the end of May putting available stocks-to-use (as/u) at 45.7%. The end of February saw the SWI at $4.27 with as/u of 44.9% and May 2024 at $6.22 and 37.0%. The end of May was also the end of the 2024-2025 marketing year, with 2024-2025 finishing with the largest as/u since 2017’s 51.8%. This also put 2024-2025 in the lower end of the range dating back through the 2004-2005 marketing year (slide 3).
HRW WHEAT: The National HRW Wheat Index (HWI) was calculated near $4.68 at the end of May putting available stocks-to-use (as/u) at 45.8%. The end of February saw the HWI at $4.91 with as/u of 44.1% and May 2024 at $6.82 and 36%. The end of May was also the end of the 2024-2025 marketing year, with 2024-2025 finishing with the largest as/u since 2020’s 47%. This also put 2024-2025 in the lower end of the range dating back through the 2004-2005 marketing year (slide 4).
HRS WHEAT: The National HRS Wheat Index (HSI) was calculated near $6.03 at the end of May putting available stocks-to-use (as/u) at 41.7%. The end of February saw the HSI at $5.57 with as/u of 44.2% and May 2024 at $7.00 and 37.0%. The end of May was also the end of the 2024-2025 marketing year, with 2024-2025 finishing with the largest as/u since 2020’s 47.7%. This also put 2024-2025 between the midpoint and lower end of the range dating back through the 2004-2005 marketing year (slide 5).
