The Law of Supply and Demand: Market Price is the point where the quantity demanded equals quantities available creating a market equilibrium. If we consider the three variables in the equation (Market Price = Supply, Demand) the only one known is Market Price. Therefore, a study of Market Price is all that is needed to understand the relationship between the unknown variables of Supply and Demand. For Market Price I’m using National Cash Indexes for the 5 major grain markets.
CORN: The National Corn Index was priced at $3,9485 at the end of January, as compared to end of December figure of $4.0191. The previous 5-year end of January low price was $4.2676 from 2024 with the 10-year end of January low at $3.2190 from 2016. The bottom line for the corn market is supplies remain large in relation to demand, the most since 2020. This despite continued strength in export demand with the latest pace projection for the 2025-26 marketing year coming in at 4.22 billion bushels, down from the end of December’s 4.653 bb, but still an increase of 55% from 2024-25’s reported shipments of 2.72 bb. The May-July futures spread closed the month covering a still bullish 30% calculated full commercial carry (slide 2) indicating the commercial side is still expecting supply and demand to tighten during the 2026 planting season.
SOYBEANS: The National Soybean Index was priced at $9.9964 at the end of January, as compared to end of December figure of $9.6912. The previous 5-year end of January low price was $9.7761 from 2025 with the 10-year end of January low at $8.1873 from 2018. The bottom line for the soybean market is it remains fundamentally bearish. The May-July futures spread closed January covering 50% calculated full commercial carry (slide 3) as compared to the end of December’s 49%. This tells us the commercial side has grown more confident of Brazil’s 2026 production potential, meaning less global demand for US supplies. As for US exports, the latest pace projection came in at 1.146 bb, down 38% from 2024-25’s reported 1.841 bb.
SRW WHEAT: The National SRW Wheat Index was priced at $4.8448 at the end of January, as compared to end of December figure of $4.5321. The previous 5-year end of January low price was $5.0404 from 2025 with the 10-year end of January low at $3.7675 from 2017. The bottom line for the SRW wheat market is supplies continue to outweigh demand, despite an uptick in 2025-26 export demand. The latest update showed all US wheat on pace for shipments of 951 million bushels, as compared to the end of December’s pace projection of 982 mb, still an increase of 23% from 2024-25’s reported shipments of 776 mb. As for new-crop, the July-September futures spread covered 54% calculated full commercial carry at the end of January as compared to the end of December’s 66%. This tells us there may be some concern over 2026 production following Winter Storm Fern that moved through the US Midwest and Plains during January.
HRW WHEAT: The National HRW Wheat Index was priced at $4.7686 at the end of January, as compared to end of December figure of $4.4406. The previous 5-year end of January low price was $5.1889 from 2025 with the 10-year end of January low at $3.3904 from 2017. The bottom line for the HRW wheat market is supplies continue to outweigh demand. Meanwhile, the new-crop July-September futures spread covered 64% calculated full commercial carry at the end of January as compared to the end of December’s 69% telling us the commercial side is still not concerned about long-term supplies in relation to demand. The July futures contract priced at $5.6750 at the end of January put it in the upper 44% of its 10-year price distribution range.
HRS WHEAT: The National HRS Wheat Index was priced at $5.6336 at the end of January, as compared to end of December figure of $5.5633. The previous 5-year end of January low price was $5.9471 from 2025 with the 10-year end of January low at $4.7246 from 2016. The bottom line for the HRS wheat market is supplies continue to outweigh demand with the end of January price the lowest since 2020.
