I’ve changed my monthly discussion of real month-end fundamentals for the various grain markets. I’m simplifying the conversation by applying the Law of Supply and Demand: Market Price is the point where the quantity demanded equals quantities available creating a market equilibrium. My take on this Law is tweaked by looking at “available supplies” rather than “total supplies”, an important distinction in the Grains sector given supplies can be held off the market in on-farm or commercial storage. If we consider the three variables in the equation (Market Price = Supply, Demand) the only one known is Market Price. Therefore, a study of Market Price is all that is needed to understand the relationship between the unknown variables of Supply and Demand.
CORN: The National Corn Index (NCI) was calculated near $3.79 at the end of July, putting available stocks-to-use (as/u) at 13.4%. The end of June saw the NCI at $3.95 with as/u of 13.1% and July 2024 showed $3.75 and 13.4%. While little changed from the previous year, the end of July 2025 as/u came in above the previous 10-year average of 12.7% indicating old-crop supplies remained larger than normal in relation to demand. As for new-crop, the December 2025-July 2026 forward curve closed July at a carry of 33.25 cents and covered 46% calculated full commercial carry and compared to the end of June settlement of 32.25 cents and 44%. The end of July 2024 saw that year’s Dec-July spread settle at 35.0 cents and 47% indicating this year’s commercial outlook is again neutral in late Q4.
SOYBEANS: The National Soybean Index (NSI) was calculated near $9.35 at the end of July, putting available stocks-to-use (as/u) at 18.1%. The end of June saw the NSI at $9.74 with as/u of 16.4% and July 2024 showed $10.00 and 15.2%. The end of July as/u came in above the previous 10-year average of 15.6% indicating old-crop supplies were larger than normal in relation to demand. As for new-crop, the November 2025-July 2026 forward curve closed July at a carry of 60.5 cents and covered 56% calculated full commercial carry and compared to the end of June settlement of 47.75 cents and 44%. The end of July 2024 saw last year’s Nov-July spread settle at 56.5 cents and 49% indicating this year’s commercial outlook is more bearish in late Q4.
SRW WHEAT: The National SRW Wheat Index (SWI) was calculated near $4.69 at the end of July, putting available stocks-to-use (as/u) at 46.6%. The end of June saw the SWI at $4.82 with as/u of 45.7% and July 2024 showed $4.68 and 46.6%. While little changed from the previous year, the end of July 2025 as/u came in above the previous 10-year average of 43.3% indicating supplies were larger than normal in relation to demand. The previous 10-year end of July high was 53.4% from 2016. The September-December futures spread covered 59% calculated full commercial carry while the Dec-March covered 55%. At the end of June these spreads covered 66% and 58% respectively indicating the market’s commercial outlook remained stable during July.
HRW WHEAT: The National HRW Wheat Index (HWI) was calculated near $4.71 at the end of July, putting available stocks-to-use (as/u) at 45.5%. The end of June saw the HWI at $4.58 with as/u of 46.3% and July 2024 showed $5.00 and 43.9%. The end of June as/u came in above the previous 10-year average of 43.2% indicating new-crop supplies were larger than normal in relation to demand. The previous 10-year end of June high was 55.2% from 2016. The September-December futures spread covered 57% calculated full commercial carry while the Dec-March covered 55%. At the end of June these spreads covered 71% and 65% respectively indicating the market’s commercial outlook grew less bearish during July.
HRS WHEAT: The National HRS Wheat Index (HSI) was calculated near $5.30 at the end of July, putting available stocks-to-use (as/u) at 45.8%. The end of June saw the HSI at $5.57 with as/u of 44.3% and July 2024 showing $5.32 and 45.6%. While little changed from the previous year, the end of July 2025 as/u came in above the previous 10-year average of 41.8% indicating new-crop supplies were larger than normal in relation to demand. The previous 10-year end of June high settlement was 51.5% from 2016. The bottom line is spring wheat fundamentals remained bearish at the end of July.
