Session Summary: As usual, a certain segment of the media was focused on the imaginary Thursday rather than turning the spotlight on what’s real. In this case I’m talking about agriculture, and the generally irrelevant June Grain Stocks and Acreage [...]
USDA released its quarterly June 1 Grain Stocks report Thursday, June 30. Corn: The US supposedly had 4.346 bb on hand as of June 1. This was in line with pre-report guesses I saw that had an average of 4.343 [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 2.026 bb (blue column) through Thursday, June 23, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 82% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 1.901 bb (blue column) through Thursday, June 23, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 89% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 8,972 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, June 23, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 11.933 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, June 23, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 89% of [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 43 mb (blue column) through Thursday, June 23, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 6% of [...]
Morning Summary: I’ve made up a music playlist to help us get through today, Thursday, June 30. Let’s begin with the classic “Just My Imagination (Running Away with Me)” by the Temptations. There’s a lot that is going to happen [...]
USDA/NASS released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for June 1, 2022, with the U.S. inventory number coming in at 72.5 million head (mh). This was down 1% from the previous June 1 number of 73.2 mh, down 6% from [...]
Session Summary: A number of markets made interesting moves Wednesday, starting with the US dollar index. As the session progressed, the greenback continued to firm. Support was likely tied to US Fed Chairman Powell’s comments regarding the state of the [...]
Morning Summary: There is a storm brewing, has been all week. As we sit on the deck looking out at the horizon pre-dawn Wednesday morning we know it is out there, drawing closer by the second. What storm am I [...]
Session Summary: Well, another day is in the books putting us that much closer to the end of the week, end of the month, end of quarter (the financial sector), and another 3-day holiday weekend here in the US. Given [...]
I'm adding another layer to this Weekly Commentary, comparing the latest Monday map not only to last week, but last year at this time as well. This should be fun. First, the weekly comparison doesn't show much change east of [...]
Morning Summary: It is early Tuesday morning, putting us one step closer to the end of the month and end of the quarter for the financial sector. It also puts in sight of the next US 3-day holiday weekend. While [...]
Session Summary: We all know the old saying applied to weather wherever one may live, “If you don’t like it, wait 5 minutes and it’ll change.” I always found that humorous back in Kansas as nearly every summer day was [...]
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, June 23 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 1,246,014 mt (49.1 mb), up 5% from the previous week’s revised 1,192,151 mt (46.9 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
Morning Summary: If Sunday night through Monday morning is any indication, markets are going to live up to the expectation of this being a wild week. After starting the week under pressure, the energy sector was mixed (literally, see second [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long corn futures position by 19,606 contracts, putting it at a total of 380,169 contracts as of Tuesday, June 21. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 4,288 contracts, putting it at 178,379 contracts as of Tuesday, June 21. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders held a Chicago (SRW) net-long futures position of 19,067 contracts as of Tuesday, June 21, a decrease of 1,368 contracts. Included in this was a decrease in [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 210 contracts, putting it at 66,045 contracts as of Tuesday, June 21. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their crude oil net-long futures position by 13,444 contracts, putting it at a total of 289,502 contracts as of Tuesday, June 21. Included in this was a [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-short feeder cattle futures position (blue line) by 126 contracts, putting it at 1,386 contracts as of Tuesday, June 21. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long live cattle futures position (blue line) by 7,378 contracts, putting it at 40,122 contracts as of Tuesday, June 21. Included in this was an [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long lean hog futures position (blue line) by 4,673 contracts, putting it at 12,059 contracts as of Tuesday, June 21. Included in this was an [...]
The June 1 Cattle on Feed numbers, including placements and marketings, were released Friday afternoon. The report showed 11.846 million head (mh) on feed as of June 1, 2022, reportedly “the highest June 1 inventory since the series began in [...]
Session Summary: The curtain is set to come down on another week, meaning we will soon be filing out of the theatre known as markets and into the bright sunlight of the weekend. There are just a few markets still [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 1.977 bb (blue column) through Thursday, June 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 80% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 1.866 bb (blue column) through Thursday, June 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 88% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 8,676 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, June 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 11.562 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, June 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 87% of [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 34 mb (blue column) through Thursday, June 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 4% of [...]
Morning Summary: For those still bullish the grain and oilseed sector, I hate to be the wet blanket Friday morning, but I don’t have a lot of faith in the tentative overnight rally. A look at the 3-day precipitation forecast [...]
USDA/NASS released its Cold Storage report for May 31, 2022 Thursday afternoon. Total beef was down 2% from the previous month and up 25% from 2021 For the second consecutive month, monthly decreases were seen generally across the board Boneless [...]
Session Summary: Let’s approach Thursday’s Afternoon Commentary as a therapy session for commodity bullish anonymous. We’re all friends here, so we can let out our frustrations following what was another blood red day across the board. Before we get rolling, [...]
Morning Summary: The commodity sector was red, generally across the board, with some of the largest selloffs seen in the grain and oilseed complex. I’ll get to the specific markets shortly, but in summary the breakdown occurred on heavy trade [...]
Session Summary: There was a lot going on in markets Wednesday but allow me to take to the tree stump to talk about the latest developments in the energy sector. Early in the day crude oil lost as much as [...]
I was interested to see what the latest weekly comparison of NWS Soil Moisture maps would show, and as expected, the situation worsened across much of the US Plains and Midwest. Readings dropped across the Central Plains, most notably Nebraska, [...]
Morning Summary: After running the traps first thing Wednesday morning I sat back in my chair, thought for a moment, and the first thing that came to mind was, “This is what you’d expect for a Tuesday.” This was of [...]
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, June 16 was released Tuesday morning. Corn inspections came in at 1,184,268 mt (46.6 mb), down 3% from the previous week’s revised 1,221,332 mt (48.1 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long corn futures position by 8,511 contracts, putting it at a total of 399,775 contracts as of Tuesday, June 14. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 6,023 contracts, putting it at 182,667 contracts as of Tuesday, June 14. Included in this was an increase [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders held a Chicago (SRW) net-long futures position of 20,435 contracts as of Tuesday, June 14, a decrease of 3,446 contracts. Included in this was a decrease in [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 4,247 contracts, putting it at 66,255 contracts as of Tuesday, June 4. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their crude oil net-long futures position by 25,310 contracts, putting it at a total of 302,945 contracts as of Tuesday, June 14. Included in this was a [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-short feeder cattle futures position (blue line) by 1,293 contracts, putting it at 1,260 contracts as of Tuesday, June 14. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long live cattle futures position (blue line) by 7,316 contracts, putting it at 32,744 contracts as of Tuesday, June 14. Included in this was a [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long lean hog futures position (blue line) by 3,105 contracts, putting it at 7,386 contracts as of Tuesday, June 14. Included in this was a [...]
Morning Summary: As we get ready to head into a US 3-day holiday weekend[i], Friday’s focus will likely be on weather (grain and oilseed sector) and all the latest headlines (energy sector). As for the former, it is supposed to [...]
Session Summary: Thursday was a good day to sit back and watch markets work themselves out. There was so much mindless chatter Wednesday following the US Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 75-basis point interest rate hike. This was a full-frontal [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 1.932 bb (blue column) through Thursday, June 9, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 78% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 1.866 bb (blue column) through Thursday, June 9, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 87% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 8,462 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, June 9, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 11.185 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, June 9, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 85% of [...]
https://darinnewsom.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/20220616-am.mp3
Morning Summary: For now, I’m going to call the explosive late rally by US stock indexes Wednesday as a flight of fancy. Did the DJIA really need to jump more than 500 points the last half-hour of the session, bringing [...]
Session Summary: US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced a 0.75% interest rate hike Wednesday, raising the Fed Funds rate to the 1.5% to 1.75% range. In other news, the sun is hot and water is wet. The point is the [...]
Morning Summary: It’s interesting how days are lining up to be one just like the other, and it isn’t even the Dog Days of Summer yet. A look at early morning markets shows us similar results to Tuesday, with one [...]
Session Summary: In the commodity complex, natural gas stole the spotlight again Tuesday. The Widow Maker’s spot-month contract dropped as much as $1.60 (19%), another incredible move for a market that has been posting a number of them lately. The [...]
During my conversation on RFD-TV Tuesday, my friend and host Marlin Bohling pointed out the latest imaginary weekly corn crop condition numbers from NASS showed Nebraska and Ohio suffering while the rest of the Midwest was fine. Naturally, I laughed, [...]
Morning Summary: Well, markets made it through another Monday, and yes, it was as ugly as many had feared. Following the close, the main talking point was the S&P 500 closing in bearish territory meaning more than 20% below its [...]
Session Summary: I tried to come up with a witty title for today’s Afternoon Commentary, and the best I could come up with was, “Well, That Happened”. It seems for every action there was an opposite though maybe not equal [...]
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, June 9 was released Monday morning. According to the official website, "This report will not be published on Monday, June 20, 2022 due to a Federal holiday." Corn inspections came [...]
Morning Summary: All the talk on financial television Monday morning is of a potential market meltdown, led by continued heavy selling overnight in US stock index futures. As of this writing S&P 500 futures are off 2.2%, DJIA futures are [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long corn futures position by 12,936 contracts, putting it at a total of 391,264 contracts as of Tuesday, June 7. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 9,434 contracts, putting it at 176,644 contracts as of Tuesday, June 7. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders held a Chicago (SRW) net-long futures position of 23,881 contracts as of Tuesday, June 7, an increase of 1,572 contracts. Included in this was a decrease in [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 2 contracts, putting it at 70,682 contracts as of Tuesday, June 7. Included in this was an increase [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their crude oil net-long futures position by 4,720 contracts, putting it at a total of 328,256 contracts as of Tuesday, June 7. Included in this was an [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-short feeder cattle futures position (blue line) by 4,177 contracts, putting it at 2,553 contracts as of Tuesday, June 7. Included in this was an increase [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long live cattle futures position (blue line) by 5,888 contracts, putting it at 25,428 contracts as of Tuesday, June 7. Included in this was an [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long lean hog futures position (blue line) by 1,274 contracts, putting it at 10,491 contracts as of Tuesday, June 7. Included in this was an [...]
Morning Summary: Yes, it’s another day of waiting to get the latest round of USDA nonsense out of the way so we can get back to trading real fundamentals in the grain and oilseed complex. What am I looking for [...]
Session Summary: I forgot to mention specifically in this space Wednesday that the spot-month natural gas contract posted a trading range of roughly $1.25. With this in mind, Thursday’s range of just over $1.00 seems paltry by comparison. Yet here [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 1.877 bb (blue column) through Thursday, June 2, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 76% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 1.840 bb (blue column) through Thursday, June 2, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 86% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 8,238 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, June 2, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 10.842 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, June 2, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 82% of [...]
The 2021-2022 marketing year finished with these export sales and shipments numbers: Unshipped sales = 27.2 mb (as compared to the previous marketing year's 30.8 mb) Total reported export shipments = 686 mb As compared to USDA's May estimate of [...]
Morning Summary: Recall 24 hours ago how nearly every market in the commodity complex was wearing green, almost as if celebrating another St. Patrick’s Day. A look at the quote screen early Thursday morning shows almost the exact opposite, with [...]
Session Summary: One didn’t have to search too hard to find a market making a big move Wednesday, and as usual, natural gas led the way. Here we see the spot-month contract posted a high of $9.664, up 37.1 cents [...]
Morning Summary: A look across the market meadow this early summer morn shows us a lot of green, so much so one would be excused for thinking the commodity complex in general was set to celebrate another St. Patrick’s Day. [...]
Session Summary: It looked like there was a blue light special in the commodity complex Tuesday, though given the already high price of everything the sale took place in Beverly Hills. What’s interesting is noncommercial traders seemed to be providing [...]
"The rain, the rain, falls mainly in the Plains..." While this catchy tune is generally right, at least for the last couple weeks, the US has not seen much improvement in soil moisture readings across the US Southern and Central [...]
Morning Summary: Part of analyzing markets is studying patterns. Back in the day when I used to be part of a “University” program that ran just prior to the company’s annual conference, one of the discussions I held was about [...]
Session Summary: There was something for everyone Monday. On the bullish side of the ledger there was natural gas. And if one is crazy enough to trade the Widow Maker, I hope it is from the long side as the [...]
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, June 2 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 1,434,683 mt (56.5 mb), up 2% from the previous week’s revised 1,411,734 mt (55.6 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
Morning Summary: We made it through the first weekend of meteorological summer, and as the past 72-hour precipitation accumulation map shows there was ample rain over the US Plains and Upper Midwest. Normally this would have the grain and oilseed [...]
Session Summary: As Dandy Don Meredith used to sing on Monday Night Football when the game was out of reach, “Turn out the lights, the party’s over…” We’ve finally reached Friday afternoon and markets are pretty much as they were [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 1.823 bb (blue column) through Thursday, May 26, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 73% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 1.825 bb (blue column) through Thursday, May 26, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 85% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 8,008 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, May 26, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 10.495 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, May 26, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 80% of [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 680.9 mb (blue column) through Thursday, May 26, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 98% of [...]
Morning Summary: The early conversation on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street program Friday morning was of how individual stocks are seeing double-digit percentage changes from day to day. Both hosts, Becky Quick and Brian Sullivan, agreed this is not normal [...]
Session Summary: I know the bulk of the industry will be shouting about the rally in the commodity complex being tied to the weaker US dollar index, and that might have played a role in Thursday’s action. A minor role, [...]
Morning Summary: Maybe we should call this “Turnaround Thursday”. No, that’s a bad idea. Time for another cup of coffee. I’ll be right back. (A slight pause while Paul McCartney’s song “Another Day” plays in the background.) Okay, now I’m [...]
Session Summary: If nothing else, trading for the first day of meteorological summer has come to an end. Mostly, as we wait for a few financial markets to close. There weren’t a lot of surprises as the US dollar index [...]
The first thing that jumps out at me with this latest comparison of NWS Soil Moisture Maps (from Monday, May 23 through May, May 30) is the improvement seen across parts of western Kansas. The dark red area was pushed [...]
Morning Summary: Welcome to the first day of summer! The first day of meteorological summer, that is, and given the large percentage of markets in the commodity complex that I consider weather derivatives it means things should get even more [...]
Session Summary: What do I make of Tuesday’s session? It’s hard to say, but I’ll lead with you can tell it was an interesting combination of the first day of the week and the last day of the month, with [...]
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, May 26 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 1,390,851 mt (54.8 mb), down 21% from the previous week’s revised 1,752,461 mt (69.0 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
There were a couple markets that jumped out at me over the weekend in regards to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders numbers, with one of them being corn. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed [...]
Morning Summary: Early markets are interesting Tuesday morning starting with reversals in both the US dollar index and US stock index futures. If you recall from Monday evening’s Quick Takes, the US dollar index was under light pressure. Since then, [...]
Session Summary: While I’ll still contend Thursday’s market activity would’ve made for a fitting Friday, Friday’s fun was also a good way to head into the US 3-day holiday weekend. The only difference was some markets took the place of [...]
