Comfortably Numb
Session Summary: Late in the session, Barchart tagged me in a social media post showing the latest Futures Market Heat Map. At first glance my thought of markets being comfortably numb Friday seemed to be confirmed. But as I was [...]
Closer to the Weekend
Morning Summary: As I mentioned in Friday’s Chart of the Day, it was an interesting overnight session for the US dollar index. The greenback dropped to within shouting distance of its short-term downside target of 104.45, hitting a low of [...]
The Other Buffett
Session Summary: I sat and stared at a blank piece of electronic paper for about a half-hour, thinking about how best to describe Thursday’s action. The one word that kept coming to mind – mixed – is benign and doesn’t [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 263 mb (blue column) through Thursday, December 1, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 18% of what [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 778 mb (blue column) through Thursday, December 1, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 40% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 1,755 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, December 1, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 3.417 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, December 1, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 22% of [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 358 mb (blue column) through Thursday, December 1, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 49% of [...]
An Unusual Glow
Morning Summary: As always, one of the first things I did Thursday morning was run the traps of the various market sectors. After the initial round, I pulled back from my desk and replayed the events of the morning leading [...]
A Lot of Energy
Session Summary: Most of the talk within the industry Wednesday had to do with the energy sector. There was a great deal of time devoted to crude oil (both Brent and WTI) and RBOB gasoline falling to new 2022 lows. [...]
His Fifteen Minutes Are Up
This past weekend, a former president of the United States posted on social media a comment saying, in general, if he wasn’t reinstated as president despite the certified 2020 election results, the US Constitution should be terminated. The funny thing [...]
Wheat and the Widow Maker
Morning Summary: Early Wednesday finds a number of markets poised to make big moves over the course of the day, with our old friend the Widow Maker leading the way pre-dawn. A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map [...]
Twists and Turns
Session Summary: Markets are known for their tendency to turnaround on Tuesday, or in other words reverse course from Monday’s activity, but this time around the twist was a number of markets U-turned over the course of Tuesday’s session. In [...]
Some Got the Memo
Morning Summary: We all know the pattern by now, the oft talked about tendency of Turnaround Tuesday. Some markets got the memo as they reversed course from Monday, starting with the US dollar index. While the greenback only dipped 0.27 [...]
Ch-Ch-Changes
Session Summary: “Don’t want to be a richer man…”. This line from David Bowie’s song Changes came to mind as I watched markets change direction over the course of Monday’s session. All three Kings of Commodities reversed course with crude [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, November 24 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 20.6 mt (20.6 mb), up 68% from the previous week’s revised 311,658 mt (12.3 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
King Crude Steals the Show
Morning Summary: Monday is all about crude oil coming out of a weekend that saw OPEC+ leaves its production cuts in place, EU price caps against Russian oil go into effect, and China loosen its zero-policy stance on Covid. From [...]
Turn Out the Lights
Session Summary: The second day of winter was rough for a number of markets once again, with the energy and grain and oilseeds sectors leading the way down. The US dollar index fell to a low of 104.37 early in [...]
US Dollar General
Morning Summary: There are a couple key talking points ahead of Friday’s session. While most of the commentary will be about November jobs data, the real headlines are the US Senate passed legislation to avert a rail strike by a [...]
A Winter Chill
Session Summary: It was a rough first day of meteorological winter for a number of markets Thursday, starting with the US dollar index. The greenback has posted a low of 104.67, down 1.20 for the day, though holding just above [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 227 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 24, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 17% of what [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 701 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 24, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 36% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 1,495 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, November 24, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 3.269 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, November 24, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 20% of [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 366 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 24, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 48% of [...]
Welcome to Winter
Morning Summary: Yes, we have somehow reached December 1, the first day of meteorological winter across the Northern Hemisphere. It seems like both yesterday and an eternity ago the world was preparing for the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, a [...]
Working on the Railroad
Session Summary: The big news item Wednesday was the US House passing legislation to avert a rail strike in December. As Schoolhouse Rock taught us many decades ago, the legislation then goes to the Senate, where it should pass, and [...]
The First and Last Day
Morning Summary: Somehow we’ve reached the last day of November, also known as first notice day for deliveries against December futures contracts. In the financial markets, the only sizeable initial delivery was seen in US Treasury 5-year note futures with [...]
Turning Into Status Quo
Session Summary: At different points of Tuesday’s session some markets seemed to be caught in cliché Turnaround Tuesday activity, only to shake off those tendencies and post similar moves to Monday. A case in point: The US dollar index. The [...]
Chinese Headlines
Morning Summary: Reading through news related to markets early Tuesday morning and the common thread was stories out of China. First there was the slight relaxation of the Covid lockdown, in one story I read (though I’m not consistently finding [...]
Change for the Dollar
Session Summary: The best way to describe the US dollar index Monday is it was mercurial[i]. Overnight trade saw the greenback post a strong rally, only for it to fall to a loss of as much as 0.74 early Monday. [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, November 24 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 302,350 mt (11.9 mb), down 39% from the previous week’s revised 499,068 mt (19.6 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
A Holly of a Morning
Morning Summary: As you know, we are already into the holiday season so for the next month or so there will be a number of holly (red markets) and ivy (green markets) references. To get things rolling early Monday morning [...]
Giblet Stew
Session Summary: I don’t know what the title of today’s Afternoon Commentary is supposed to mean, other than we found the giblets from the turkey were left out in a pot on the stove overnight. A look beneath the lid [...]
Cold Storage Report: October 2022
USDA/NASS released its Cold Storage report for October 31, 2022 on Tuesday. Given all the talk about inflation and the US Thanksgiving Holiday, let's start by looking at poultry Total poultry stocks were down 9% from last month but up [...]
Another Quiet Morning
Morning Summary: By now your turkey should be brined and possibly going through the drying process, waiting to move into the roaster. Or, if like me, a family member already has a beef brisket smoking low and slow. However you [...]
To Smoke or Roast, that is the Question
Session Summary: What can we make of Tuesday’s session for most markets? I think the bottom line is it was clearly the day before the day before the US holiday. Folks seem to have a long weekend on their minds, [...]
The Holiday Season
Morning Summary: Lights are flashing red and green. Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse. Did we flash forward, and the US Thanksgiving holiday is already in the past, putting us in that tryptophan-induced coma that last for [...]
One Step Closer
Session Summary: Shortly after I posted Morning Commentary Monday, news broke that the large rail union SMART-TD voted to reject the latest labor deal. This takes the US one step closer to a possible strike, at a time when the [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, November 17 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 495,395 mt (19.5 mb), down 7% from the previous week’s revised 535,416 mt (21.1 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
Quietly Red
Morning Summary: As we get rolling on this holiday-shortened week the US dollar index is showing some short-term strength. The greenback confirmed a short-term uptrend overnight as it hit a new 4-day high above 107.24. As of the writing the [...]
It Was a Friday
Session Summary: I’m not sure how best to describe today’s activity other than to say it was a Friday, and not just any Friday but that leads us into another holiday season next week. A number of markets acted as [...]
Cattle on Feed: November 2022
The November 1 Cattle on Feed numbers, including September placements and marketings, were released Friday afternoon. When a baseball player goes to the plate three times in a game and strikes out each time, it's called a hat trick. That [...]
Report Preview: November Cattle on Feed
The November Cattle on Feed report is set for release at 14:00 (CT) Friday afternoon. As usual, this report will provide data on the number of head of cattle on feed as of November 1, the number of cattle placed [...]
Soft or Hard
Morning Summary: There was a lot of chatter overnight that could come into play in markets over the course of time. The piece of news I found most interesting talked of how the US Treasury yield curve was now more [...]
Still Seeing Red
Session Summary: Similar to this morning, most sectors in the commodity complex were showing red as Thursday’s session came to a close. Crude oil posted the largest loss with the spot-month Brent contract down $3.00 late while WTI lost as [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 196 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 10, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 14% of what [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 536 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 10, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 29% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 1,033 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, November 10, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 2.798 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, November 10, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 18% of [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 334 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 10, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 45% of [...]
Seeing Red, Again
Morning Summary: A look at the Barchart Futures Market heat map early Thursday morning shows a lot of red. Most of the markets in the green don’t trade overnight, the livestock sector and orange juice, with the other standout being [...]
Another Busy Day
Session Summary: There were a lot of moving parts to Wednesday’s session, not unusual for the first day of a new positioning week for noncommercial traders. But before I get to that, let’s start with a look at the US [...]
Missile Markets
Morning Summary: Here is a quick recap of how my early Wednesday morning progressed: As usual it started with a quick double-shot of espresso, then a check of the markets. The US dollar index was falling again, down as much [...]
A Turn of Events
Session Summary: I was set to talk about how a number of markets pulled off a turnaround within Tuesday’s session itself, then plans changed. News broke that Poland had been hit by two Russian missiles, sparking misguided talk World War [...]
Dollar Down
Morning Summary: There are mornings when one market jumps out at you, and this morning that market is the US dollar index. As always, I started the process of running the traps of the various market sectors with global currencies, [...]
Mixed Monday
Session Summary: There isn’t a good explanation for Monday’s markets except to say things were mixed. Headlines were swirling around like light snowflakes on the wind, but nothing seems to stick. Yes, US President Biden and China’s President Xi had [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, November 10 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 484,001 mt (19 mb), up 108% from the previous week’s revised 232,510 mt (9 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
Dawn of a New Day
Morning Summary: It has been an interesting morning already as US President Biden and China’s President Xi are meeting in-person for the first time since Mr. Biden took office. Preliminary statements from both leaders talked of finding a way forward [...]
Forex Friday
Session Summary: All eyes were on the Forex again Friday, particularly with the US dollar index still in freefall. The greenback hit a low of 106.28, down 1.80 for the day, and was within a few ticks of that mark [...]
US Drought Monitor
Once again, I don't see much change in the latest 2-week comparison of US Drought Monitor maps. Splitting hairs, the situation across northeast Nebraska seems to have worsened slightly with more area now in exceptional drought. Otherwise, everything looks about [...]
A Day to Remember
Morning Summary: By the time you read this, the “11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month” will have already passed in France. Whether you call it Armistice Day, Remembrance Day, Veterans’ Day, or something else, I hope [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 173 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 3, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 12% of what [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 465 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 3, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 25% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 819 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, November 3, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 2.798 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, November 3, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 17% of [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 330 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 3, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 43% of [...]
Another Quiet Morning
Morning Summary: There are a number of storms brewing all around the United States, starting with Hurricane Nicole making landfall along Florida’s east coast and quickly downshifting back to a tropical storm. Further north and to the west, a cold [...]
Wednesday’s Red Wave
Session Summary: I’m not getting into the political debate today, though I will relate a message from a good friend who said Tuesday’s expected Red Wave turned out to be a Red Puddle. In regard to markets, there most certainly [...]
Sleeping it Off
Morning Summary: Not a market was stirring overnight through early Wednesday morning, not even natural gas. A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows a lot of red, but a closer inspection shows most sectors and markets posting [...]
It’s Only Natural (Gas)
Session Summary: All I can say is if there is anyone out there day-trading natural gas I hope you have friends, family, or neighbors checking on you frequently. The Widow Maker is not good for one’s health, as it dropped [...]
Calm Before the Storm
Morning Summary: Other than natural gas, which knows not what ‘calm’ means, the commodity complex in general was relatively quiet overnight. There is a storm brewing, and no, I’m not talking about Subtropical Storm Nicole that is making its way [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, November 3 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 231,458 mt (9 mb), down 48% from the previous week’s revised 445,693 mt (17.5 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
Reversal of Fortunes
Morning Summary: Some financial markets reversed course overnight, led by the US dollar index losing its initial buying momentum to sit in the red early Monday morning. The index continues to indicate a top is in place, though as discussed [...]
No Nonsense November
We’ve made it to November, meaning one more month until winter arrives here in North America and summer returns to South America. Before we get there, though, the US has its Thanksgiving Day holiday at the end of the month. [...]
Weekend Energy
Session Summary: This time I’m not talking about everyone reenergizing over the weekend, but rather how the energy sector led the charge heading into the weekend. Thursday saw an incredible rally by distillates (heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.), [...]
Opposite Day
Morning Summary: It’s always interesting the difference 24 hours can make when it comes to markets. Recall yesterday in this space I talked about how every market sector that traded overnight was in the red, due in part to a [...]
Bringing the Heat (ing Oil)
Session Summary: Heating oil stole the show Thursday, at least to the upside, with the spot-month contract gaining 5.3% late in the session. This outdistanced December cotton’s 5.1% rally by a small margin, with both markets supported by solid commercial [...]
US Drought Monitor
The latest 2-week comparison of US Drought Monitor maps shows not much changed over the past week (Tuesday to Tuesday), though drought conditions did worsen across the US Northern Plains. much of North Dakota moved into the sever category while [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 163 mb (blue column) through Thursday, October 27, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 11% of what [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 363 mb (blue column) through Thursday, October 27, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 21% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 653 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, October 27, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 2.686 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, October 27, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 16% of [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 324 mb (blue column) through Thursday, October 27, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 42% of [...]
Seeing Red
Morning Summary: A close look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map early Thursday and three markets stand out for showing green: The US dollar index, feeder cattle, and orange juice. However, if we consider feeders and orange juice don’t [...]
Said It, Did It, Done
Session Summary: Once again, members of the Federal Open Market Committee were out telling the world what to expect with the official announcement this afternoon, a concerted effort to limit market chaos. It’s such a different approach from when the [...]
The Corridor Reopens
Morning Summary: As I was reading through the news early Wednesday morning I noticed the grain and oilseed sector was coming under increased pressure. I then found a Bloomberg story that read, “Ukraine’s grain export corridor will resume operations as [...]
November Starts with a Bang
Session Summary: A number of markets made big moves Tuesday led by a 4.2% rally in cotton and a 9.0% selloff in natural gas. What’s that you ask? Didn’t natural gas rally 11% Monday? Yes, yes it did, meaning Tuesday [...]
The Morning After
Morning Summary: The morning after Halloween sometimes leaves folks in a daze as a result of crashing from the previous night’s sugar rush. The other reality is that we have entered the last month of autumn meaning winter is a [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, October 27 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 422,288 mt (17 mb), down 11% from the previous week’s revised 472,594 mt (19 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
Trick or Treat
Session Summary: As we all learned when we were younger, innocently trick or treating on Halloween Night, sometimes you get peanut butter cups and sometimes you get candy corn. Now as adults, we see similar results looking at markets as [...]
Wheat Holds its Bold Open
Morning Summary: I’ll talk more about the grain and oilseed sector in general, the wheat sub-sector in particular in a bit, but a quick summary is markets were able to hold initial overnight strength through early Monday morning. The same [...]