Let’s Get Real

2022-06-30T14:09:16-05:00June 30th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As usual, a certain segment of the media was focused on the imaginary Thursday rather than turning the spotlight on what’s real. In this case I’m talking about agriculture, and the generally irrelevant June Grain Stocks and Acreage [...]

CFTC CoT: Corn

2022-06-26T17:36:12-05:00June 26th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long corn futures position by 19,606 contracts, putting it at a total of 380,169 contracts as of Tuesday, June 21. Included in this was a decrease [...]

CFTC CoT: Soybeans

2022-06-26T17:31:57-05:00June 26th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 4,288 contracts, putting it at 178,379 contracts as of Tuesday, June 21. Included in this was a decrease [...]

CFTC CoT: Cotton

2022-06-26T17:22:09-05:00June 26th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 210 contracts, putting it at 66,045 contracts as of Tuesday, June 21. Included in this was a decrease [...]

Therapy Session

2022-06-23T14:13:24-05:00June 23rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Let’s approach Thursday’s Afternoon Commentary as a therapy session for commodity bullish anonymous. We’re all friends here, so we can let out our frustrations following what was another blood red day across the board. Before we get rolling, [...]

More Red Numbers

2022-06-23T05:44:04-05:00June 23rd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The commodity sector was red, generally across the board, with some of the largest selloffs seen in the grain and oilseed complex. I’ll get to the specific markets shortly, but in summary the breakdown occurred on heavy trade [...]

US Soil Moisture

2022-06-22T09:55:55-05:00June 22nd, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

I was interested to see what the latest weekly comparison of NWS Soil Moisture maps would show, and as expected, the situation worsened across much of the US Plains and Midwest. Readings dropped across the Central Plains, most notably Nebraska, [...]

Wipeout

2022-06-21T14:09:51-05:00June 21st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The first official day of summer saw the grain and oilseed sector wipeout while other sectors continued to fly. I’ll get to the grains in a bit, but let’s start with energies where crude oil was up about [...]

Big Moves

2022-06-21T06:09:49-05:00June 21st, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It was another night of big moves in commodities, with the energy sector in the spotlight once again. Here, distillates took center stage as the spot-month contract rallied as much as 19.4 cents (4.5%) and was still showing [...]

CFTC CoT: Corn

2022-06-20T08:33:28-05:00June 20th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long corn futures position by 8,511 contracts, putting it at a total of 399,775 contracts as of Tuesday, June 14. Included in this was a decrease [...]

CFTC CoT: Soybeans

2022-06-20T08:30:23-05:00June 20th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 6,023 contracts, putting it at 182,667 contracts as of Tuesday, June 14. Included in this was an increase [...]

CFTC CoT: Cotton

2022-06-20T08:21:18-05:00June 20th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 4,247 contracts, putting it at 66,255 contracts as of Tuesday, June 4. Included in this was a decrease [...]

CWS Time

2022-06-17T14:27:54-05:00June 17th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It is indeed time for the CWS. Not only is NCAA baseball’s College World Series under way at this hour here in Omaha, but the Corn-Wheat-Soybean markets were rolling as well heading into the US 3-day holiday weekend. [...]

As Expected

2022-06-15T14:55:16-05:00June 15th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced a 0.75% interest rate hike Wednesday, raising the Fed Funds rate to the 1.5% to 1.75% range. In other news, the sun is hot and water is wet. The point is the [...]

US Soil Moisture

2022-06-14T10:17:01-05:00June 14th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

During my conversation on RFD-TV Tuesday, my friend and host Marlin Bohling pointed out the latest imaginary weekly corn crop condition numbers from NASS showed Nebraska and Ohio suffering while the rest of the Midwest was fine. Naturally, I laughed, [...]

The Day After

2022-06-14T06:12:32-05:00June 14th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Well, markets made it through another Monday, and yes, it was as ugly as many had feared. Following the close, the main talking point was the S&P 500 closing in bearish territory meaning more than 20% below its [...]

CFTC CoT: Corn

2022-06-13T04:45:03-05:00June 13th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long corn futures position by 12,936 contracts, putting it at a total of 391,264 contracts as of Tuesday, June 7. Included in this was a decrease [...]

CFTC CoT: Soybeans

2022-06-13T04:41:38-05:00June 13th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 9,434 contracts, putting it at 176,644 contracts as of Tuesday, June 7. Included in this was a decrease [...]

CFTC CoT: Cotton

2022-06-13T04:28:56-05:00June 13th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 2 contracts, putting it at 70,682 contracts as of Tuesday, June 7. Included in this was an increase [...]

The Waiting Game

2022-06-10T06:09:26-05:00June 10th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Yes, it’s another day of waiting to get the latest round of USDA nonsense out of the way so we can get back to trading real fundamentals in the grain and oilseed complex. What am I looking for [...]

Another $1 Day

2022-06-09T14:21:11-05:00June 9th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I forgot to mention specifically in this space Wednesday that the spot-month natural gas contract posted a trading range of roughly $1.25. With this in mind, Thursday’s range of just over $1.00 seems paltry by comparison. Yet here [...]

All Wheat Sales and Shipments

2022-06-09T09:11:36-05:00June 9th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The 2021-2022 marketing year finished with these export sales and shipments numbers: Unshipped sales = 27.2 mb (as compared to the previous marketing year's 30.8 mb) Total reported export shipments = 686 mb As compared to USDA's May estimate of [...]

Green No More

2022-06-09T06:10:41-05:00June 9th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Recall 24 hours ago how nearly every market in the commodity complex was wearing green, almost as if celebrating another St. Patrick’s Day. A look at the quote screen early Thursday morning shows almost the exact opposite, with [...]

Turn Out the Lights

2022-06-03T15:03:28-05:00June 3rd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As Dandy Don Meredith used to sing on Monday Night Football when the game was out of reach, “Turn out the lights, the party’s over…” We’ve finally reached Friday afternoon and markets are pretty much as they were [...]

Abby Normal

2022-06-03T06:13:03-05:00June 3rd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The early conversation on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street program Friday morning was of how individual stocks are seeing double-digit percentage changes from day to day. Both hosts, Becky Quick and Brian Sullivan, agreed this is not normal [...]

Go Green

2022-06-02T14:38:41-05:00June 2nd, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I know the bulk of the industry will be shouting about the rally in the commodity complex being tied to the weaker US dollar index, and that might have played a role in Thursday’s action. A minor role, [...]

Another Day

2022-06-02T06:06:55-05:00June 2nd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Maybe we should call this “Turnaround Thursday”. No, that’s a bad idea. Time for another cup of coffee. I’ll be right back. (A slight pause while Paul McCartney’s song “Another Day” plays in the background.) Okay, now I’m [...]

In the Good Old Summertime

2022-06-01T14:27:15-05:00June 1st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: If nothing else, trading for the first day of meteorological summer has come to an end. Mostly, as we wait for a few financial markets to close. There weren’t a lot of surprises as the US dollar index [...]

The Stage is Set

2022-05-31T05:54:08-05:00May 31st, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Early markets are interesting Tuesday morning starting with reversals in both the US dollar index and US stock index futures. If you recall from Monday evening’s Quick Takes, the US dollar index was under light pressure. Since then, [...]

The Second Friday of the Week

2022-05-27T14:21:30-05:00May 27th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: While I’ll still contend Thursday’s market activity would’ve made for a fitting Friday, Friday’s fun was also a good way to head into the US 3-day holiday weekend. The only difference was some markets took the place of [...]

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