What a Week

2022-01-28T14:10:24-06:00January 28th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: This was quite a week. Five trading days that proved, above anything else, fundamentals still rule the roost in commodities. Of course when I talk about fundamentals I mean the real version, meaning those that track what basis [...]

More of the Same

2022-01-28T06:13:50-06:00January 28th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s as if Thursday’s session never closed, but simply took a break for dinner and celebrating before starting the party up again that has now lasted into Friday morning. The US dollar continues to strengthen, hitting a new [...]

A Lot to Think About

2022-01-27T14:34:48-06:00January 27th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Thursday was one of those days when you have to take a step back and think about what markets are trying to say. Starting with the US dollar, the index rocketed to a high of 97.29, its highest [...]

Another Day, Another Dollar

2022-01-27T06:11:48-06:00January 27th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The US dollar is in the spotlight again Thursday morning, with the index adding another 0.45 to Wednesday’s post-Fed Chairman Powell comments spike to 96.54. The US dollar index ($DXY) is now in position to complete a long-term [...]

Ole´, Oily, Oily, Oily

2022-01-26T14:47:01-06:00January 26th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A look at Wednesday’s closing markets and I can’t help but imagine a raucous football (soccer) crowd singing the ubiquitous chant/song “Ole´, Ole´, Ole´, Ole´”, though in this version it comes across as “Ole´, Oily, Oily, Oily”. If [...]

A Quiet Morning

2022-01-26T05:30:09-06:00January 26th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Most markets were relatively quiet overnight through early Wednesday morning, not a huge surprise given all the activity we’ve seen so far this week. The US dollar index was showing a small gain, up 0.14 and sitting at [...]

What’d I Miss?

2022-01-25T14:48:12-06:00January 25th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: I borrowed the title for this Afternoon Commentary from a song in Lin-Manuel Miranda’s Tony Award winning musical “Hamilton”. The song opens the second half of the play and introduces Thomas Jefferson, played by the incomparable Daveed Diggs [...]

CFTC CoT: Corn

2022-01-22T08:58:03-06:00January 22nd, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their corn net-long futures position by 19,354 contracts, putting it at a total of 388,138 contracts as of Tuesday, January 18. Included in this was a decrease [...]

CFTC CoT: Soybeans

2022-01-22T08:52:13-06:00January 22nd, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 10,257 contracts, putting it at 128,015 contracts as of Tuesday, January 18. Included in this was a decrease [...]

CFTC CoT: Crude Oil

2022-01-22T08:34:17-06:00January 22nd, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their crude oil net-long futures position by 25,276 contracts, putting it at a total of 385,781 contracts as of Tuesday, January 18. Included in this was an [...]

CFTC CoT: Cotton

2022-01-22T07:58:49-06:00January 22nd, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 1,304 contracts, putting it at 95,126 contracts as of Tuesday, January 18. Included in this was an increase [...]

CFTC CoT: Lean Hogs

2022-01-22T07:20:20-06:00January 22nd, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long lean hog futures position (blue line) by 2,349 contracts, putting it at 48,305 contracts as of Tuesday, January 18. Included in this was a [...]

Trading Places

2022-01-21T15:03:26-06:00January 21st, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The most notable feature of Friday’s session was how some markets traded places from Thursday, most notably corn and soybeans (more on this in a bit). One thing that didn’t change was the meltdown in US stock indexes [...]

A Lot of Red Early

2022-01-21T06:21:53-06:00January 21st, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It would be easier to talk about the few markets that are in the green early Friday than list all those showing losses to start the day. Beginning with currencies, the US dollar index was under light pressure [...]

A Long Day

2022-01-20T14:29:53-06:00January 20th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Was it just me, or did Thursday seem like a long day? I’ve been thinking it was closing time for a couple of hours, so now that the bells are ringing across the land it’s a bit anti-climactic. [...]

A Lighter Shade of Red

2022-01-20T06:10:47-06:00January 20th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Running the traps early Thursday morning shows a number of commodity markets were lower, but rather than invoke the “Red markets in the morning...” warning, I’ll point out most showed a lighter shade of red to start the [...]

The Play’s the Thing

2022-01-19T14:14:51-06:00January 19th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As I mentioned in this space Tuesday, the stage was set for quite a production Wednesday, and as the day unfolded we were reminded of Hamlet’s comment, “The play’s the thing.” Markets didn’t disappoint, at least not those [...]

Not Everything Changes

2022-01-19T06:43:25-06:00January 19th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A number of markets changed directions overnight, erasing at least some of Tuesday’s moves. The US dollar index was slightly weaker, giving back as much as 0.18 of yesterday’s strong 0.57 rally. The flip-side, naturally, is the euro [...]

The Stage is Set

2022-01-18T14:22:10-06:00January 18th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A number of markets posted impressive moves Tuesday, setting the stage for what could be an explosive week this week. The key is the big selloff in US stock market indexes with the Dow down 1.2%, the S&P [...]

Quantum Leap

2022-01-16T09:56:03-06:00January 16th, 2022|Commentary, Weekly Column|

“Hello, it’s me. I’ve thought about us for a long, long time…” Those of you of a certain age will recognized those words as the opening line from the song “Hello, It’s Me” by Todd Rundgren from back in the [...]

CFTC CoT: Corn

2022-01-15T07:05:26-06:00January 15th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their corn net-long futures position by 37,989 contracts, putting it at a total of 407,492 contracts as of Tuesday, January 11. Included in this was a decrease [...]

CFTC CoT: Soybeans

2022-01-15T06:58:05-06:00January 15th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 7,716 contracts, putting it at 138,272 contracts as of Tuesday, January 11. Included in this was an increase [...]

CFTC CoT: Cotton

2022-01-15T06:44:31-06:00January 15th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 3,669 contracts, putting it at 93,822 contracts as of Tuesday, January 11. Included in this was a decrease [...]

CFTC CoT: Crude Oil

2022-01-15T06:36:45-06:00January 15th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their crude oil net-long futures position by 27,680 contracts, putting it at a total of 360,505 contracts as of Tuesday, January 11. Included in this was an [...]

CFTC CoT: Lean Hogs

2022-01-15T06:18:20-06:00January 15th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long lean hog futures position (blue line) by 5,735 contracts, putting it at 50,654 contracts as of Tuesday, January 11. Included in this was a [...]

Shaken, Not Stirred

2022-01-14T14:10:09-06:00January 14th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As we sit back and contemplate Friday’s market activity, slowly sipping our after-hours cocktail of choice, what are the key takeaways from the day’s session? First and foremost, commercial buyers were active in nearly every commodity sector heading [...]

A Lot of Red, Part 2

2022-01-14T06:05:35-06:00January 14th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Thursday in this space I talked about how most markets were red following overnight selling. This morning, markets are more mixed with energies posting a solid rally and softs are higher while metals and grains and oilseeds are [...]

A Bad Day to Be an Oilseed

2022-01-13T14:59:48-06:00January 13th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: A lot of commodity markets closed lower Thursday, but other than natural gas (more on the famed Widow Maker in a bit) the hardest hit were oilseed markets. Canola was down 2.1%, soybeans dropped 1.6%, bean meal lost [...]

A Lot of Red

2022-01-13T06:01:49-06:00January 13th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of markets early Thursday morning shows a lot of red, starting with the US dollar index. Following Wednesday’s free fall, the greenback lost another 0.27 overnight as it hit a low of 94.71. On the [...]

Out of the Way

2022-01-12T15:18:56-06:00January 12th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Now that the January round of USDA hubbub is out of the way, we can turn our attention back to things that really matter. The US dollar index blew through its previous 4-week low of 95.57 and key [...]

Interesting Day

2022-01-11T14:17:35-06:00January 11th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Tuesday afternoon found the talking heads of financial television doing an about-face from Monday, blathering on and on about how markets liked what Chairman Powell had to say at his confirmation hearing. However, he basically repeated what he [...]

A Familiar Cliche

2022-01-11T05:51:41-06:00January 11th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick look at markets this morning and a familiar cliché comes to mind – Turnaround Tuesday. This phrase used to make my late friend Gary Wilhelmi chuckle, due to its absurdity, and it is an idea that [...]

From Boom to a One Day Bust

2022-01-10T14:59:32-06:00January 10th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: It’s always interesting how things work out. This past weekend, the cover of the most recent weekly Barron’s magazine was emblazoned with the title, “The Commodities Boom”. I know how magazines work, having written for the in-house one [...]

Another Quiet Night

2022-01-10T06:01:58-06:00January 10th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Welcome to a new week everyone. The strange thing was it was a relatively quiet Sunday night through early Monday, an oddity made more peculiar by the global headlines over the weekend. The one that jumped out at [...]

CFTC CoT: Corn

2022-01-08T15:17:02-06:00January 8th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their corn net-long futures position by 12,695 contracts, putting it at a total of 445,481 contracts as of Tuesday, January 4. Included in this was a decrease [...]

CFTC CoT: Soybeans

2022-01-08T15:10:14-06:00January 8th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 5,271 contracts, putting it at 130,556 contracts as of Tuesday, January 4. Included in this was an increase [...]

CFTC CoT: Cotton

2022-01-08T14:54:33-06:00January 8th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 6,602 contracts, putting it at 97,491 contracts as of Tuesday, January 4. Included in this was an increase [...]

CFTC CoT: Crude Oil

2022-01-08T14:50:13-06:00January 8th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their crude oil net-long futures position by 5,604 contracts, putting it at a total of 332,825 contracts as of Tuesday, January 4. Included in this was a [...]

Closing Time

2022-01-07T14:45:55-06:00January 7th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: As the “old” (1998) song from Semisonic told us, “Closing time, open all the doors and let you out into the world...” Yes, the final bell of the week is set to ring when US stock markets come [...]

The Weekend is in Sight

2022-01-07T06:14:57-06:00January 7th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We’ve reached Friday morning meaning the weekend is in sight, not only for us humans but the algorithms that do most of the trading these days. Given the wild market activity to start this month, it’s highly likely [...]

Sense and Senselessness

2022-01-06T14:26:39-06:00January 6th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Every afternoon, I look at the markets and wonder how I’m going to explain what happened. Some days the process is easy. Other days, like today, the initial running of the traps seems to bolster the case of [...]

Paint it Black

2022-01-06T06:22:55-06:00January 6th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s hard to believe, but it has already been a year. The first thing I did this morning was go back and read my Afternoon Commentary Summary from January 6, 2021 (“Anarchy”), Morning Commentary Summary from January 7 [...]

Taking a Breather

2022-01-05T14:42:53-06:00January 5th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: Some markets took a breather mid-week, not overly surprising given moves seen to open the new year. One of these was King Corn, with an interesting game possibly building in this key grain and oilseed sector market. On [...]

US Soil Moisture

2022-01-05T10:58:13-06:00January 5th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The latest two-week comparison of NWS Climate Prediction Center Soil Moisture maps shows little change from Monday, December 27 to Monday, January 3. As expected, the disappointing snowfall across the US Southern Plains this past weekend made little difference to [...]

Short Night, Quiet Morning

2022-01-05T06:00:20-06:00January 5th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s possible traders stayed up late last night watching US college football’s Texas Bowl, and if so the lack of market activity is understandable. The game didn’t end until after 11pm (CT), with the post-game hoopla lasting to [...]

A Big Day

2022-01-04T14:45:56-06:00January 4th, 2022|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: There were a lot of big moves made Tuesday as traders continue to flex their new-found muscles in 2022. And given how markets closed, or were in position to close, this coming Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders reports [...]

CFTC CoT: Crude Oil

2022-01-04T10:06:31-06:00January 4th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their crude oil net-long futures position by 1,826 contracts, putting it at a total of 338,429 contracts as of Tuesday, December 28. Included in this was a [...]

Everything is Green, Almost

2022-01-04T06:08:31-06:00January 4th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I’ll say this for 2022 so far, traders are bullish. A quick check of the various markets early Tuesday morning shows almost everything to be in the green. Exceptions make a small list that includes copper, cocoa, oats, [...]

CFTC CoT: Corn

2022-01-04T04:37:42-06:00January 4th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their corn net-long futures position by 12,856 contracts, putting it at a total of 458,176 contracts as of Tuesday, December 28. Included in this was an increase [...]

CFTC CoT: Soybeans

2022-01-04T04:31:42-06:00January 4th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 22,408 contracts, putting it at 125,285 contracts as of Tuesday, December 28. Included in this was an increase [...]

CFTC CoT: Cotton

2022-01-04T04:22:16-06:00January 4th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 3,152 contracts, putting it at 90,889 contracts as of Tuesday, December 28. Included in this was an increase [...]

CFTC CoT: Lean Hogs

2022-01-04T04:06:04-06:00January 4th, 2022|Commentary, Report Commentary|

The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long lean hog futures position (blue line) by 2,443 contracts, putting it at 57,739 contracts as of Tuesday, December 28. Included in this was an [...]

Happy New Year!

2022-01-03T05:51:14-06:00January 3rd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: 2022 got off to a rollicking start Sunday evening as the commodity complex in general jumped at the open of trade for the new year. The biggest move was made by the oilseed sector as soybeans gained 1.8%, [...]

For Auld Lang Syne

2021-12-31T14:26:00-06:00December 31st, 2021|Afternoon Commentary, Commentary|

Session Summary: The 2021 trading year has come to an end, and as a good friend said in a message, “What a year it was.” Rather than look back, after all we are talking about futures, I’ll recap the year [...]

The Last Day

2021-12-31T04:59:14-06:00December 31st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The last day of the year is always one of reflection, looking back at what was, wondering what might’ve been if one thing had gone differently. In the case of 2021, things happened in the United States I [...]

Red Markets in the Morning

2021-12-30T05:57:21-06:00December 30th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I’ve paraphrased the old sailor saying to “Red markets in the morning” before, though I don’t know that it necessarily holds true that traders need to take warning. Particularly this time of year when trade volume seems to [...]

Go to Top