More Holly than Ivy
Morning Summary: I might as well get into the spirit of the season early this month. A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map early Tuesday morning shows more holly than ivy, or in other words, more market sectors [...]
The Golden Ticket Flopped
Session Summary: Sometimes you see something on a chart that makes you sit back and wonder if you’ve ever seen its like over the past almost 40 years. I’m talking about action in February gold to start the week. Early [...]
US Soil Moisture
The latest weekly comparison of US Soil Moisture anomaly map (left hand side), Sunday through Sunday, shows the situation didn't change much over much of the Midwest. However, the holiday week snow event across the Plains lessened some of the [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, November 30 was released Monday. Corn inspections came in at 1,158,086 mt (45.6 mb), up 183% from the previous week’s revised 408,885 mt (16.1 mb). Total marketing year inspections of [...]
A Golden Spike
Morning Summary: The first market that jumped out at me as we start a new week was gold. Here we see the February contract spiked to a new all-time high of $2,152.30 overnight, up $62.60 (3.0%) from last Friday’s settlement, [...]
The Big Picture
A friend asked if I would put together a Column taking a look at the various market and economic factors at play as we near the end of 2023. My plan was to post this in November, one year ahead [...]
Financial Markets are Heating Up
Session Summary: I know the United States is on death’s doorstep, ready to cross into the abyss beyond according to roughly 99.9% of the talking heads in the industry. But rather than dying quietly, the US seems to be taking [...]
Welcome to Winter Summer
Morning Summary: Well, we turned the calendar page from November to December, meaning meteorological winter has begun for the Northern Hemisphere while the those south of the equator have dived right into summer. Granted, parts of South America have already [...]
Fall is Finished
Session Summary: Fall is finished, at least according to the meteorological calendar. When we wake up Friday morning it will be winter. Aside from the temperature, there is something chilling about that sentence. Maybe it goes back to all my [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 627 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 23, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 36% of what [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 300 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 23, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 17% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 1,818 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, November 23, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 2.387 million running bales (blue column) through Thursday, November 23, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 23% [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 290 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 23, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 48% of [...]
US Drought Monitor
The latest US drought monitor as of Tuesday, November 28 (left hand map) didn’t show much change from the previous week (right hand map). However, readings across southern Illinois and Indiana did worsen over the past week, not a good [...]
Fall’s Dying Embers
Morning Summary: It’s pre-dawn on the last day of November, meaning the embers of meteorological fall are dying, soon to be snuffed out entirely by the winter’s icy wind. It’s hard to believe it was only a week ago the [...]
One More Day
Session Summary: We are down to one more day, and we can say goodbye to November 2023. I don’t know that this is a good thing as it means only one month remains in 2023, somehow, and meteorological winter is [...]
Another Quiet Morning
Morning Summary: Given the volatility seen the first two days this week, it isn’t overly surprising trade was relatively quiet overnight through early Wednesday morning. A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map, and accounting for markets that don’t [...]
Last Day of the Week
Session Summary: As usual, Tuesday was the last day of the positioning week for noncommercial traders and the session did not disappoint. As I talked about in today’s Morning Commentary, the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders reports were released Monday [...]
Green Before Dawn
Morning Summary: A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map early Tuesday morning shows us most market sectors are in the green. Livestock are still red, due to Monday’s opening meltdown and markets not trading overnight, with softs also [...]
A Strange Day Indeed
Session Summary: As we close the book on the last Monday of November, it was a strange day indeed. Markets that tend to not move together were in lockstep, meaning most of the folks who call themselves “analysts” won’t have [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, November 23 was released Monday. Corn inspections came in at 406,680 mt (16.0 mb), down 32% from the previous week’s revised 601,068 mt (23.7 mb). Total marketing year inspections of [...]
US Soil Moisture
The latest weekly comparison of US Soil Moisture anomaly map (left hand side), Sunday through Sunday, shows the situation continued to worsen over parts of the Midwest. The darker red blob over Iowa grew larger the last two weeks, with [...]
Both Sides Now
Morning Summary: The common thread in the commodity complex that I could see as we start another week was most markets traded both sides of unchanged overnight. This pattern starts with the US dollar index that traded as much as [...]
October 2023 Cold Storage Report
The USDA/NASS Cold Storage report for October 31, 2023 was released on Wednesday, November 22. Total beef was up 6% from the previous month and down 13% from October 2022 We continue to see beef stocks build, yet Boxed beef [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 572 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 32% of what [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 280 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 16% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 1,548 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, November 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 2.289 million running bales (blue column) through Thursday, November 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 22% [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 278 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 46% of [...]
Turkey Time
Session Summary: My guess is there might be only a handful of folks reading and/or listening to today’s Afternoon Commentary, and that’s understandable. It’s Turkey Time. Thoughts of markets can be put away for 36 hours or so while attention [...]
A Quieter Morning
Morning Summary: This pre-holiday pre-dawn finds most markets quieter than they have been the first couple days of this week. The Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows us the big mover(s) overnight was a draw between cotton and Chicago (SRW) [...]
Fed Fears, Funds and Fundamentals
Session Summary: Most of the headlines Tuesday afternoon had to do with the minutes of the late October/early November US Open Market Committee meeting. The bottom line was many Fed officials continued to “worry about reacceleration of inflation”[i] and were [...]
A Little Tuesday Magic
Morning Summary: A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map early this morning shows a little of that Tuesday Magic known as Turnaround. December coffee was down 0.5 cent (0.3%) after posting a strong rally to open the week, [...]
Paging Mr. Bean
Session Summary: I don’t know how many of you are familiar with the British television comedy from the early 1990s, “Mr. Bean”, but Rowland Atkinson character was the first thing I thought of at Monday’s close. Today was a day [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, November 16 was released Monday. Corn inspections came in at 553,899 mt (21.8 mb), down 22% from the previous week’s revised 707,374 mt (27.8 mb). Total marketing year inspections of [...]
The Holiday Season
Morning Summary: Sunday afternoon and evening got us rolling into the holiday season, at least here in the US. This Thursday will be Thanksgiving Day, followed by what used to be the lightest trading day of the year as most [...]
November 1 Cattle on Feed
USDA released its Cattle on Feed numbers for October 1 Friday afternoon. On Feed: 11.931 million head (mh) Up 3% from the September 1 number of 11.580 mh The opposite of what I was looking for based on October action [...]
Into the Weekend
Session Summary: We made it to another weekend, and by the looks of it, a number of markets couldn’t get there fast enough. A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map Friday afternoon shows nearly every sector in the [...]
Preview: November 1 Cattle on Feed
USDA is set to release its November 1 Cattle on Feed report Friday at 14:00 (CT). This set of data will include all cattle on feed as of November 1 as well as marketings and placements for October. October Marketings [...]
That Green Friday Feeling
Morning Summary: The commodity complex was in the green across the board, mostly, with the only sector in the red being Livestock, left over from Thursday due to markets not trading overnight. Of the markets trading, palladium was the leader [...]
Too Much Energy
Session Summary: A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map Thursday afternoon and one sector stands out to me – Energies. Cumulatively these markets were down 4.4% for the day, with all four major markets falling at least 4%. [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 514 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 9, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 28% of what [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 256 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 9, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 14% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 1,260 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, November 9, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 2.208 million running bales (blue column) through Thursday, November 9, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 21% [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 267 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 9, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 45% of [...]
US Drought Monitor
The latest US drought monitor as of Tuesday, November 14 (left hand map) didn’t show much change from the previous week (right hand map). In fact, at first glance I’d be hard pressed to note any difference between the two [...]
The Quiet Before Dawn
Morning Summary: The commodity complex was mixed early Thursday with the consistent feature I see being generally quiet activity during overnight trade. The biggest move was made by cocoa, a rally of 1.7% as the Softs sector held the top [...]
Spread ‘Em
Session Summary: As far as I’m concerned, Wednesday’s session was all about futures spreads. Nearly every market was showing signs of a more active commercial trade, a bit unusual this time of year. Starting out in the Barn we continue [...]
Another Green Morning
Morning Summary: A look at Wednesday’s early morning Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows it to be another green morning, mostly. The two sectors that trade overnight not showing green are Financials (US Treasury futures) and Energies. In financials, every [...]
The Meal Ticket
Session Summary: Tuesday saw another interesting session for the commodity complex, with a number of markets standing out to me. The strength of the Softs sector has been well documented, with contracts handing off the baton to race to new [...]
Something Bright Eyes
Morning Summary: Those of a certain age will remember the Bonnie Tyler song “Total Eclipse of the Heart” that included the line, “Turn around bright eyes…”. That was the first thing I thought of early Tuesday morning as I looked [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, November 9 was released Monday. Corn inspections came in at 608,810 mt (24.0 mb), up 6% from the previous week’s revised 574,558 mt (22.6 mb). Total marketing year inspections of [...]
US Soil Moisture
The latest weekly comparison of US Soil Moisture anomaly map (left hand side), Sunday through Sunday, shows the situation worsened over parts of the US Plains and Midwest again last week. Most of eastern Kansas dropped to a deeper shade [...]
The Return of the Widow Maker
Morning Summary: For the most part, the commodity complex saw quiet trade overnight Sunday through early Monday morning. But there was an outlier market, the famed Widow Maker or natural gas for those new to my commentary. Here we see [...]
Working for the Weekend
Morning Summary: We’ve made it to another Friday morning, meaning the weekend is waiting for us just beyond today’s closing bells. The early morning Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows us traders were mostly content selling commodities overnight with only [...]
Could’ve Been Cattle
Session Summary: For every market but palladium that closed lower Thursday, they can look down at their post-close drink and say, “At least I’m not one of the cattle markets”. It was an ugly day in the Barn, even with [...]
Supply and Demand: November 2023
US Wheat 2023-2024 ending stocks were increased by 14 mb Imports increased by 10 mb Food demand decreased by 4 mb US Corn 2023-2024 ending stocks increased by 45 mb Production increased by 170 mb Yield increased by 1.9 bpa [...]
US Drought Monitor
The latest US drought monitor as of Tuesday, November 7 (left hand map) didn’t show much change from the previous week (right hand map). In fact, at first glance I'd be hard pressed to not any difference between the two [...]
Soybean Export Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 441 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 2, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 24% of what [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 229 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 2, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 13% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 1,014 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, November 2, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 2.091 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, November 2, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 19% of [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 256 mb (blue column) through Thursday, November 2, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 44% of [...]
A Quiet Morning
Morning Summary: A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map early Thursday morning shows us the commodity complex was mostly quiet, the majority of markets staying within 1% of Wednesday’s close. There were outliers, of course, with coffee showing [...]
Hump Day Musings
Session Summary: As the end of Wednesday’s session approaches, a number of markets are finishing Hump Day leaving more questions than answers. Starting with the US dollar index, the greenback rallied as much as 0.33 before giving most of its [...]
More of the Same
Morning Summary: Running the traps of the various market sectors early Wednesday morning, and I don’t see a lot of change from Tuesday’s close. The US dollar index was firm once again, adding as much as 0.33 overnight and sitting [...]
Humpty Dumpties
Session Summary: All the Kings’ horses and all the Kings’ men couldn’t put the Three Kings of Commodities together again Tuesday. As the session wore on selling in gold, crude oil, and corn intensified. Pressure came from both commercial and [...]
Turnaround Time
Morning Summary: A look at the Tuesday morning Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows a lot of red, or at least not green, with a number of markets seeing some turnaround activity from Monday’s close. The US dollar index jumped [...]
A Week Late
Session Summary: Monday afternoon’s Barchart Futures Market Heat Map would’ve been perfect a week ago, heading into Halloween 2023. The market posting the biggest loss was natural gas. The always frightening and seldom predictable Widow Maker was down a beastly [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, November 2 was released Monday. Corn inspections came in at 535,191 mt (21.1 mb), down 1% from the previous week’s revised 540,785 mt (21.3 mb). Total marketing year inspections of [...]
US Soil Moisture
The latest weekly comparison of US Soil Moisture anomaly map (left hand side), Sunday through Sunday, shows the situation worsened over parts of the US Plains and Midwest last week. Most of Iowa dropped to a deeper shade of red, [...]
A Crude Start to the Week
Morning Summary: Sunday evening, the headline broke that Saudi Arabia extended the 1-million-barrel-a-day oil production cut through December. With Brent crude holding below $90 and WTI near $80 at last week’s close, the move was not a surprise to the [...]
Fall Forward
Session Summary: Heading into Friday’s session, I had the witty idea to title Afternoon Commentary “Fall Back” as a reminder to set your clocks back this weekend. All I needed was for markets to cooperate by closing in the red, [...]
A Lot of Green
Morning Summary: It’s early Friday morning, and a look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows us a lot of green. In fact, the only sector of the commodity complex glowing red pre-dawn is Softs, heavily influenced by Thursday’s [...]
Talking Points
Session Summary: As Thursday’s session starts to wind down, there were a number of talking points to keep folks occupied until early Friday morning. Let’s start with the US dollar index as the greenback dropped as much as 1.07 and [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 362 mb (blue column) through Thursday, October 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 20% of what [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 196 mb (blue column) through Thursday, October 26, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 12% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 750 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, October 26, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 1.996 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, October 26, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 18% of [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2023-2024 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 251 mb (blue column) through Thursday, October 26, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 42% of [...]
US Drought Monitor
The latest US drought monitor as of Tuesday, October 31 (left hand map) didn’t show much change from the previous week (right hand map). One area that stands out to me is the far Northern Plains where drought readings continue [...]
An Apple a Day
Morning Summary: There seems to have been a delayed reaction by the US dollar index to the US Federal Open Market Committee holding interest rates unchanged Wednesday. Pre-dawn Thursday finds the greenback deep in the red, falling as much as [...]
Soybean Crush: September 2023
The September 2023 Oilseed Crushings report from USDA/NASS was released Wednesday afternoon. 175 mb of soybeans were reportedly crushed during September 2023 as compared to 169 during August 2023 and 168 mb during September 2022 This put the total for [...]
The Non-Event
Session Summary: Though there was plenty of fanfare and hullabaloo surrounding Wednesday’s interest rate announcement by the US Federal Reserve, it largely turned out to be a non-event. Chairman Powell announced the Fed Fund rate would stay between 5.25% and [...]
New Month, Old News
Morning Summary: I hope everyone had a fun and safe Halloween last night, waking up this morning to a new month filled with old news. November gets under way with all eyes on the US Federal Open Market Committee as [...]
A Costume Party
Session Summary: It’s Halloween afternoon, and a number of markets dressed up as other markets in hopes of getting a treat of some kind. Most notably, the US dollar index donned its Widow Maker outfit, also known as natural gas, [...]
More of the Same
Morning Summary: As I ran the traps of the various market sectors early Tuesday morning, what I saw was more of the same from the last number of mornings. The theme continues to be uncertainty, from nearly every corner of [...]
Dollar Down
Session Summary: A number of markets made big moves Monday, starting with the US dollar index. The greenback dropped as much as 0.50 and was near its session low at this writing, hit by a round of selling ahead of [...]
US Soil Moisture
The latest weekly comparison of US Soil Moisture anomaly map (left hand side), Sunday through Sunday, shows the situation improved over parts of the US Plains and Midwest last week. However, much of the area continues to show solid soil [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, October 26 was released Monday. Corn inspections came in at 531,516 mt (20.9 mb), up 18% from the previous week’s revised 449,261 mt (17.7 mb). Total marketing year inspections of [...]
Another Mixed Monday
Morning Summary: Coming out of another busy news weekend it’s interesting to see the commodity complex was generally mixed early Monday morning. The two key markets of gold and crude oil are going opposite directions, again, with December gold rallying [...]
A Lot of Green Overnight
Morning Summary: The Barchart Futures Market Heat Map is showing a lot of green as we make our way from overnight trade to the Top o’ the Morning Friday. Yes, nearly every sector is just a little bit Irish to [...]
Staying in the Green
Session Summary: With closing bells starting to ring out across the market landscape, most market sectors stayed in the green from this morning. A look at the Thursday Afternoon Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows only US stock index futures [...]
Green on the Screen
Morning Summary: Unlike a couple mornings ago when all market sectors were in the red pre-dawn, early Thursday finds the landscape in the green nearly across the board. In the commodity complex the outlier is Energies showing a cumulative loss [...]
Coffee Goes Cold
Session Summary: As I studied the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map Wednesday afternoon, the market that jumped out at me was coffee. Here we see the December contract was down 5.85 cents (per pound, or 3.5%) at the close, this [...]