This week’s soil moisture map (left hand side) from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, for Monday, September 27 shows not a lot of change over the past week. However, if we want to break out the magnifying glass [...]
Session Summary: There was a lot going on Tuesday, starting with the solid rally posted by the US dollar index. As I mentioned in a Quick Takes, the greenback popped to a new 4-month high beyond 93.72 on its way [...]
Morning Summary: If you read Monday’s Morning Commentary, then you’ll like what’s in store for Tuesday because markets are pretty much the same. The grain and oilseed complex is quietly mixed, as are softs. Meanwhile, metals are under pressure as [...]
Session Summary: Sometimes I think of things I should say, then self-edit those thoughts out of my commentary. Such was the case late last week when the low trade volume of a number of markets just gave the vibe a [...]
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, September 23 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 517,539 mt (20.4 mb), up 28% from the previous week’s revised 403,422 mt (15.9 mb) Total marketing year inspections [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their corn net-long futures position by 6,867 contracts, putting it at a total of 265,501 contracts as of Tuesday, September 21. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 4,701 contracts, putting it at 61,054 contracts as of Tuesday, September 21. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long Chicago wheat futures position (blue line) by 2,732 contracts to a total of 1,842 contracts as of Tuesday, September 21. Included in this was [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 13,198 contracts, putting it at 95,025 contracts as of Tuesday, September 21. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders held a net-short futures posing of 716 contracts in feeder cattle futures as of Tuesday, September 14, a switch of 1,603 contracts from the previous week. Included [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long live cattle futures position (blue line) by 8,599 contracts, putting it at 44,556 contracts as of Tuesday, September 21. Included in this was a [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long lean hog futures position (blue line) by 6,871 contracts, putting it at 60,363 contracts as of Tuesday, September 21. Included in this was a [...]
Morning Summary: The market that grabbed my attention first thing Monday morning was cotton. Here we see the December contract up as much as 2.91 cents (3.0%) overnight and still up more than 2.0 cents at this writing. From a [...]
The recent run of dry weather, with some areas of the United States also experiencing extended summer warmth, has accelerated early harvest progress. By the time you read this it would not be surprising if the 2021 US corn harvest [...]
USDA released its September 1 Cattle on Feed report Friday with the number coming in at 11.234 million head (mh, gold column). This was down 1% from the September 1, 2020 number of 11.394 mh but up 21% from last month’s [...]
USDA/NASS released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for September 1, with the U.S. inventory number coming in at 75.4 million head (mh). This was down 4% from the previous September 1 number of 78.4 mh but up 1% from [...]
Session Summary: I understand if you found something other than watching markets Friday; like attending an early high school football game, heading out to the field even if you aren’t in harvest yet, or watching chess on Public Television. Any [...]
Morning Summary: One of the first financial news discussions I heard this morning had to do with Costco announcing purchase limits on toilet paper, but that wasn’t the most interesting throne-related news early Friday morning. The other hot topic was [...]
Session Summary: If you are just checking markets and think the day’s close looks familiar, you are correct. The US dollar index was under pressure throughout the day, despite most talking heads on financial television telling us how hawkish US [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 19.1 mb (blue column) through Thursday, September 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 4% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 19.6 mb (blue column) through Thursday, September 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 4% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2020-2021 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 11,190 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, September 16, a point in the marketing year when a 4-year average of [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 1.395 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, September 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 10% of [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 251.3 mb (blue column) through Thursday, September 16, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 30% of [...]
Morning Summary: The US dollar index was under pressure overnight through early Thursday morning, following through on recent bearish technical signals as traders try to decide what to think about US Fed Chairman Powell’s comments Wednesday afternoon. The general consensus [...]
USDA/NASS released its Cold Storage report for August 31, 2021 Wednesday afternoon. As you know, I don't hold USDA reports out as gospel. However, a look at the most recent set of Cold Storage numbers and there are some items [...]
Session Summary: If we consider the various commodity contracts as leaves on a giant tree, few of them were anything but green on this fall equinox (Wednesday, September 22). As I make my way from limb to limb, the first [...]
Morning Summary: It’s funny how things just jump out at you when you fire up your quote screen first thing in the morning. Today was one of those days when I got to my grain and oilseed page. Corn, soybeans, [...]
Session Summary: I know, it’s not the night before Christmas but a look at market activity, or the lack thereof, certainly suggest nobody was stirring. Not even a mouse. Trade volume was light across the board, automatically attaching an asterisk [...]
This week’s soil moisture map (left hand side) from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, for Monday, September 20 shows the situation across the US Plains worsened this past week. Deficits increased from the Texas Panhandle north through Kansas, [...]
Morning Summary: Yes, “Turnaround Tuesday” is cliché, and a phrase vastly overused in the market commentary industry. But there is a tendency, particularly following a macro event like what we saw Monday, for markets to react the opposite direction. In [...]
Session Summary: I had a question come in asking, “Do you think China will bail out Evergrande?” First, thank you for sending in questions and comments and second, I forwarded the question on to my son Ben who pays closer [...]
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, September 16 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 403,104 mt (15.9 mb), up 152% from the previous week’s revised 159,429 mt (6.3 mb) Total marketing year inspections [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their corn net-long futures position by 9,143 contracts, putting it at a total of 258,634 contracts as of Tuesday, September 14. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 4,482 contracts, putting it at 65,755 contracts as of Tuesday, September 14. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long Chicago wheat futures position (blue line) by 12,966 contracts to a total of 4,574 contracts as of Tuesday, September 14. Included in this was [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 692 contracts, putting it at 108,223 contracts as of Tuesday, September 14. Included in this was an increase [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long live cattle futures position (blue line) by 19,344 contracts, putting it at 53,155 contracts as of Tuesday, September 14. Included in this was a [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long feeder cattle futures position (blue line) by 4,365 contracts, putting it at 887 contracts as of Tuesday, September 14. Included in this was a [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long lean hog futures position (blue line) by 9,121 contracts, putting it at 67,234 contracts as of Tuesday, September 14. Included in this was a [...]
Morning Summary: We did see some harvest taking place as we traveled between Omaha, Nebraska and Kansas City this past weekend. Late last week I had a few reports come in of combines getting fired up, mostly across the US [...]
Session Summary: Let’s start at the very beginning. It’s a very good place to start. Do…as in dough, or the US dollar index shook off its early doldrums to rocket higher Friday, hitting a high of 93.22 and putting it [...]
Morning Summary: As we stumble out of bed, making our way to the coffee pot then the quote screen, we see most commodity markets are in the red to start the day. This isn’t overly concerning given the rallies posted [...]
Session Summary: With the US dollar index rallying Thursday, the greenback was up 0.46 at this writing and pressing 93.00, it wasn’t surprising some of the commodity sectors came under increased pressure. Leading the way was metals, the sector falling [...]
Morning Summary: A quick check of the various market sectors shows not a lot happened overnight, though the US dollar index did show some strength. The greenback traded as much as 0.33 higher and was sitting near its session high [...]
Session Summary: The commodity sector in general posted a bullish session, though there were outliers. Most notable in the last group was cattle, both live and feeders, though future spreads indicate pressure didn’t come from commercial interests as expected earlier [...]
Morning Summary: There was no widespread turnaround activity Tuesday night following the day session’s mostly higher close to the commodity sector. The US dollar index was under pressure once again, falling as much as 0.23 and sitting within the shadow [...]
Session Summary: I tend to take a mental pause whenever I hear the name of the National Public Radio program “All Things Considered”. The reality is there is no way to consider all things, particularly in the markets, when every [...]
This week’s soil moisture map (left hand side) from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, for Monday, September 13 is a solid illustration that even during harvest soil moisture deficits can worsen. The first thing that jumped out at [...]
Morning Summary: The 2008 film “The Dark Knight” was a great movie, up until the climactic fight between Batman and the Joker (but that’s a subject for another day). One of the memorable scenes is when a hijacked tractor-trailer rolls [...]
Session Summary: The day started with news of a fire at the JBS packing plant in Grand Island, Nebraska and the initial thought that came to most was of the Tyson fire in Holcomb, Kansas a couple years ago that [...]
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, September 9 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 138,189 mt (5.4 mb), down 51% from the previous week’s revised 278,294 mt (11.0 mb) Total marketing year inspections [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their corn net-long futures position by 36,395 contracts, putting it at a total of 267,777 contracts as of Tuesday, September 7. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 10,898 contracts, putting it at 70,237 contracts as of Tuesday, September 7. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long Chicago wheat futures position (blue line) by 5,265 contracts to a total of 17,540 contracts as of Tuesday, September 7. Included in this was [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 2,201 contracts, putting it at 108,915 contracts as of Tuesday, September 7. Included in this was an increase [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long feeder cattle futures position (blue line) by 3,002 contracts, putting it at 5,252 contracts as of Tuesday, September 7. Included in this was a [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long live cattle futures position (blue line) by 15,066 contracts, putting it at 72,499 contracts as of Tuesday, September 7. Included in this was a [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long lean hog futures position (blue line) by 1,869 contracts, putting it at 76,355 contracts as of Tuesday, September 7. Included in this was a [...]
Morning Summary: While the grain and oilseed complex was relatively quiet overnight through Monday morning, other sectors were seeing solid activity. Most of the talk on CNBC to start the day was of coming tax increases and the bearish effect [...]
Session Summary: As I often say, USDA report days may not be informative, but they certainly can be entertaining. Friday was no exception with nothing of substance in the reports themselves, while the reaction in corn and soybeans was fun [...]
Session Summary: I know I’m showing my age with this one, but I remember playing horseshoes, the equivalent of today’s Corn Hole game (appropriately enough, as you’ll see in a bit), at family get-togethers as a kid. Those of you [...]
Morning Summary: The big news Wednesday was so big I didn’t hear of it second hand until long after markets had closed and Afternoon Commentary had been posted. Reportedly, FSA had mistakenly posted 2021 acreage registrations rather than waiting for [...]
Session Summary: As I was getting ready to start typing out this Summary, a commodity update came across on CNBC. The headliner was natural gas posting an almost 8% gain. At this point we should consider the Widow Maker the [...]
Morning Summary: It’s interesting how things work out. Recall from Tuesday’s Afternoon Commentary, “Hard Red”, when I talked about nearly every commodity market closing in the red to start the week. Often when this happens, though I’ve run no statistical [...]
Session Summary: Almost everywhere you look Tuesday afternoon, commodity markets closed in the red. In fact, the only sector showing much green (outside of the thinly traded rough rice market) was softs. Of the true soft markets, only sugar finished [...]
This week’s soil moisture map (left hand side) from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, for Monday, September 6 had me double-checking the official website. I first thought there was no way I could be seeing what I though [...]
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, September 2 was released Tuesday morning. Corn inspections came in at 275,799 mt (10.9 mb), down 53% from the previous week’s revised 583,498 mt (23.0 mb). Grain sorghum (milo) inspections [...]
Morning Summary: Welcome back from the long 3-day US holiday weekend though markets were still acting a bit groggy. Th US dollar index was showing a modest gain, adding as much as 0.13 early and putting light pressure on the [...]
Session Summary: This play on the title of one of Shakespeare’s comedies (Love’s Labour’s Lost) is reference to live cattle losing big going into the Labor Day 3-day US holiday weekend. I want to take you back to a couple [...]
Morning Summary: A quick check of the various pieces of the commodity sector show each complex is mixed, to a certain degree. None more so than grains and oilseeds, though, with how my quote screen is set up showing every [...]
Session Summary: It took a little longer this week, but we finally saw some markets move against previous sessions. Notable in the commodity sector was the grain and oilseed complex that saw almost all contracts close in the green, despite [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2020-2021 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 2.626 bb (blue columns) through Thursday August 26, a point in the marketing year when a 4-year average of 98% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2020-2021 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 2.215 bb (blue columns) through Thursday, August 26, a point in the marketing year when a 4-year average of 99% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2020-2021 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 10,844 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, August 26, a point in the marketing year when a 4-year average of [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 806,000 bales (blue column) through Thursday, August 26, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 6% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 199.5 mb (blue column) through Thursday, August 26, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 25% of [...]
Morning Summary: Most of the stories Thursday morning are centered on water in some way, shape or form. Watching financial news and the first segment was all about the flooding across the Northeast as Ida makes its way back toward [...]
Session Summary: In the end, there was not much difference between yesterday’s last day of meteorological summer and today’s first day of meteorological fall. At least not according to how markets acted. Most of the commodity sector closed in the [...]
Session Summary: I had to think about the title for a while. But after running the traps of the commodity sector and finding mostly red markets, and this being a Tuesday, well, Ruby Tuesday just made sense again. A simple [...]
This week’s soil moisture map (left hand side) from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, for Monday, August 30 gives me the opportunity to say something I haven't for many months: The situation across parts of the US Northern [...]
Morning Summary: And here we are, the last day of meteorological summer, and much of the eastern US has seen rain over the last 24 hours (see attached map). It figures, given how dry the summer quarter was for so [...]
Session Summary: It took a while, but there was finally a reaction by many markets to Hurricane Ida Monday. Let’s start with November lumber, as rebuilding is always a top priority and a major talking point on market tv throughout [...]
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, August 26 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 562,549 mt (22.1 mb), down 25% from the previous week’s revised 745,303 mt (29.3 mb). Total marketing year export [...]
Morning Summary: As you’ve all heard, read, and seen by now Hurricane Ida made landfall Sunday on the US Gulf Coast, smashing into Louisiana on the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina doing the same. Early reports are that much of [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their corn net-long futures position by 14,879 contracts, putting it at a total of 330,967 contracts as of Tuesday, August 24. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long soybean futures position (blue line) by 14,757 contracts, putting it at 101,647 contracts as of Tuesday, August 24. Included in this was a decrease [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders decreased their net-long Chicago wheat futures position (blue line) by 11,746 contracts to a total of 35,048 contracts as of Tuesday, August 24. Included in this was [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long cotton futures position (blue line) by 1,278 contracts, putting it at 104,309 contracts as of Tuesday, August 24. Included in this was an increase [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long feeder cattle futures position (blue line) by 1,953 contracts, putting it at 8,735 contracts as of Tuesday, August 24. Included in this was an [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long live cattle futures position (blue line) by 18,433 contracts, putting it at 96,218 contracts as of Tuesday, August 24. Included in this was an [...]
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders increased their net-long lean hog futures position (blue line) by 905 contracts, putting it at 74,630 contracts as of Tuesday, August 24. Included in this was an [...]
Session Summary: A good friend, and one of the top meteorologists in the business, posted a map on Twitter showing how warm the waters of the Gulf of Mexico are as now-Hurricane Ida heads that direction this weekend. The talk [...]
Morning Summary: I have a daily process I go through when I first fire up the ol’ quote screen each morning. I start by looking at global currencies, with Friday’s check yielding a bit of a surprise as the US [...]
Session Summary: You can tell it is late August and I, like everyone else in this industry, have run out of things to talk about as we wait for fall harvest to begin in earnest. With that in mind, I [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2020-2021 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 2.605 bb (blue columns) through Thursday August 13, a point in the marketing year when a 4-year average of 97% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2020-2021 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 2.203 bb (blue columns) through Thursday, August 19, a point in the marketing year when a 4-year average of 97% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2020-2021 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 10,655 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, August 19, a point in the marketing year when a 4-year average of [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 632,000 bales (blue column) through Thursday, August 19, a point in the marketing year when a 4-year average of 5% of what [...]
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2021-2022 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 184.0 mb (blue column) through Thursday, August 19, a point in the marketing year when a 4-year average of 22% of [...]
Morning Summary: …Which is good, because it is. There wasn’t much in the way of news to spark the overnight markets, not that we can read much into them anymore anyway. Reportedly global markets are anxiously awaiting Thursday and Friday’s [...]
