It’s the Red Grains Show
Morning Summary: How many of you remember the Canadian Public Television program “The Red Green Show”? it was hilarious (at least in my opinion), and for some reason I was reminded of it as I looked at the grain sector [...]
Bulls Awaken for the Weekend
Session Summary: As we head into the US 3-day holiday weekend, market bulls nearly across the board were stampeding. Ironically enough, the one sector not in the green this afternoon on the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map was Livestock. The [...]
US Drought Monitor Maps
The latest US drought monitor maps were released Thursday morning, showing readings as of Tuesday, May 23. As has been the case for weeks and/or months, I'm not seeing much change in the latest map (left hand side) versus the [...]
Humbled Kings
Session Summary: I’ve said this a lot of late, but Thursday was an interesting session. As the US debt-ceiling debate continues, the US dollar index firmed once again. The greenback hit its highest mark, 104.31, since March 17. At the [...]
April 2023 Cold Storage Report
The USDA/NASS Cold Storage report for April 30, 2023 was released Wednesday. Total beef was down 6% from the previous month and up 4% from March 2022 The key number here continues to be the month-to-month comparison. A few things [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 1.146 bb (blue column) through Thursday, May 18, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 71% of what [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 1.760 bb (blue column) through Thursday, May 18, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 83% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 7,951 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, May 18, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 9.418 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, May 18, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 76% of [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 635 mb (blue column) through Thursday, May 18, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 96% of [...]
The Ongoing Debt Debate
Morning Summary: It seems the commodity complex is not entirely sure what to make of the ongoing US debt-ceiling drama. However, if we use metals as a somewhat reasonable measure, we see gold continues to move lower while copper finds [...]
One Day Closer
As Wednesday nears its end, the US is one day closer to its debt-ceiling deadline. Judging by the chatter coming from financial media talking heads, the situation is fraught with unimaginable drama. However, we've seen this show before and I'm [...]
Not Much Has Changed
Morning Summary: A check of early Wednesday headlines shows me not much has changed on the US debt-ceiling drama. Given that, and the recent financial news analysis of the situation, we should expect the US dollar to either weaken or [...]
Split Decision
Session Summary: Tuesday’s session was interesting, with most commodity sectors finishing the day mixed. Starting out in the Barn, live cattle and feeder cattle were lower following a light round of commercial selling. This was the second consecutive day of [...]
A Familiar Drill
Morning Summary: We all know the drill by now. Markets post a strong rally to open the week, only to find renewed selling overnight through – you guessed it – Turnaround Tuesday morning. That was the case again this week [...]
What Changed?
Session Summary: I had a question come in Monday afternoon that asked simply, “What changed?” I knew what my friend meant, even without the mention of a specific market. A look across the commodity landscape and three markets jumped out [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, May 18 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 1,323,117 mt (52.1 mb), up 13% from the previous week’s 1,173,783 mt (46.2 mb). Total marketing year inspections of [...]
The Screen is Mostly Green
Morning Summary: Recall how last Friday morning’s Barchart Futures Market Heat Map was all green, though we all remember markets didn’t end that way when the closing bell had sounded. This morning, we see most market sectors in the green, [...]
CFTC CoT: Soybeans
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders held a net-long soybean futures position of 38,1540 contracts (blue line) as of Tuesday, May 16. This was a decrease of 26,121 contracts from the previous week [...]
May 1 Cattle on Feed
USDA released its Cattle on Feed numbers for May 1. On Feed: 11.608 million head (mh) On par with the April 1 number of 11.612 mh But still a small April 1 number, with 2018 at 11.558 mh the nearest [...]
Preview: May 1 Cattle on Feed Report
USDA is set to release its Cattle on Feed report for May 1 at 14:00 (CT) Friday. This includes: The number of cattle on feed Cattle placed during April Cattle marketed durning April A couple things to keep in mind: [...]
Something Different
Morning Summary: There is something different about the commodity sector early Friday morning. A look at the latest Barchart Futures Market Heat Map and I see nothing but green, at least when it comes to the various sectors. The strongest [...]
Maybe, Just Maybe
Session Summary: It’s possible a number of markets took their first steps toward completing reversal patterns on their long-term monthly charts Thursday. Maybe. One of the most watched contracts, December corn, was actually able to close higher after falling to [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 1.086 bb (blue column) through Thursday, May 11, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 68% of what [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 1.752 bb (blue column) through Thursday, May 11, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 82% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 7,725 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, May 11, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 9.135 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, May 11, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 74% of [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 621 mb (blue column) through Thursday, May 11, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 94% of [...]
Commodity Consistency
Morning Summary: All I had to do early Thursday morning was take a look at the latest Barchart Futures Market Heat Map and I knew everything I needed to know about the overnight session. The commodity complex was consistent overnight [...]
Cs the Day
Session Summary: Carpe Diem my friends, which as we learned from the movie “Dead Poets Society” back in 1989 is Latin for (loosely) “Seize the day”. However, a look at Wednesday afternoon’s quote screen, I’m saying it as the letter [...]
An Interesting Overnight Session
Morning Summary: Checking the traps of the various market sectors early Wednesday morning, and a couple things stood out to me. First, the US dollar index was gaining strength. I’ll go back to the discussion in Tuesday’s Afternoon Commentary about [...]
Newton’s Third Law
Session Summary: Usually I apply Newton’s First Law of Motion to markets[i], but today I’m bringing Sir Isaac’s Third Law into the discussion. If you remember your Physics 101, Newton’s Third Law states that for every action (in nature) there [...]
The Day After Monday
Morning Summary: It’s early Tuesday morning, the day after Monday for those keeping track, bringing with it the usual possibility of Turnaround activity in the markets. Pre-dawn shows us a number of examples in the commodity complex, most notably the [...]
Commodity Complex Flex
Session Summary: The commodity complex flexed its collective muscle Monday, with nearly every sector sitting in the green late in the day. A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows all but Financials (US Treasury futures) showing cumulative [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, April 27 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 1,173,783 mt (46.2 mb), up 20% from the previous week’s revised 974,450 mt (38.4 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
Monday Greens
Morning Summary: We are now into the second-half of the last month of spring, already feeling the warmth of summer shining on our faces. For the most part, at least across North America. It has become cliché, but one has [...]
And Now, the Weather
Session Summary: With the May round of USDA nonsense out of the way, traders should now turn their attention back to the weather. In the grain and oilseed sector, that means more attention will likely be paid to new-crop markets, [...]
May 2023 WASDE
The main item was USDA lowered its old-crop corn export guess by 75 mb to a total of 1.775 bb. This leaves the door open to more decreases down the road. Old-crop ending stocks increased by the same 75 mb, [...]
A Few More Hours
Morning Summary: In just a few more hours, the grain and oilseed complex will be rid of the kidney stone that is the May USDA Supply and Demand report. While large commercial and noncommercial traders pay little attention to this [...]
Red Ruled the Day
Session Summary: Where this morning’s Futures Market Heat Map from Barchart was leaning toward shades of red, late in the Thursday’s session the same Heat Map shows red ruled the day. The only sector in the green, cumulatively, was financials [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 1.044 bb (blue column) through Thursday, May 4, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 65% of what [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 1.745 bb (blue column) through Thursday, May 4, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 81% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 7,440 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, May 4, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 8.789 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, May 4, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 71% of [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 613 mb (blue column) through Thursday, May 4, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 91% of [...]
It’s Not Unusual (Cue Tom Jones)
Morning Summary: It’s not unusual for markets to be mixed early Thursday morning following noncommercial activity to close out the previous positioning week on Tuesday and start the new week with fresh activity Wednesday. A look at the pre-dawn Barchart [...]
More of the Same
Session Summary: Though it is only Wednesday, the days are starting to all look the same. In the not-too-distant past we saw a situation where nearly every market was in the red overnight, just to have green be the dominant [...]
Non-Green Again
Morning Summary: Similar to Tuesday morning, the early Wednesday Barchart Futures Market Heat Map is showing a lot of colors, with few of them green. The only commodity sector showing a gain is livestock, due to the three major markets [...]
All or Nothing
Session Summary: Running through the various market sectors this afternoon shows me Tuesday’s session was one of all or nothing. For every rally there seemed to be another market with an equal selloff, with the big exception being orange juice. [...]
A Lot of Red
Morning Summary: A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map early Tuesday shows most sectors and individual markets to be in colors other than green. Only financials (US Treasury futures) were showing a cumulative gain, a fact made more [...]
Monday Energy
Session Summary: Maybe it’s just me but coming out of the weekend I tend to have a lot of energy. Usually when I sit down to write Morning Commentary thoughts are coming fast and furious. However, by the end of [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, April 27 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 963,351 mt (37.9 mb), down 37% from the previous week’s revised 1,518,569 mt (59.8 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
Rainy Days and Mondays
Morning Summary: Much of the US Midwest saw rain this past weekend, so much so it’s likely not a lot of planting progress was made across the heart of the Corn Belt. Additionally, rains were still falling this Monday morning [...]
CFTC CoT: Corn
The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed noncommercial traders moved to a net-short corn futures position of 60,633 contracts (blue line) as of Tuesday, April 2. This was a switch of 85,281 contracts from the previous [...]
Turning Green
Session Summary: It’s interesting that as we make our way through the early part of the last month of spring, markets are finally starting to turn green. This week will be remembered for a long list of technical reversal patterns [...]
A Fitting Friday
Morning Summary: The stars aligned this year so that Jobs Friday, the April employment numbers, coincide with Cinco de Mayo. For what it’s worth, and it isn’t much, one set of pre-report guess on April jobs came in at an [...]
Much to Ponder
Session Summary: After watching markets play out Thursday, there is much to think about until we gather again Friday morning. The big question this afternoon is the same one from Thursday morning, what happened in the crude oil market? I’ve [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 999 mb (blue column) through Thursday, April 27, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 63% of what [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 1.730 bb (blue column) through Thursday, April 27, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 80% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 7,252 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, April 27, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 8.437 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, April 27, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 69% of [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 604 mb (blue column) through Thursday, April 27, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 90% of [...]
Turnaround Thursday?
Morning Summary: We can’t read much into any overnight session, but particularly one following a day like Wednesday. What can happen after a vacuum session is trade starts to stabilize, to find an equilibrium between buy and sell orders, sometimes [...]
Life in a Vacuum
Session Summary: If I were to summarize Wednesday’s session with one word, it would be “vacuum”. A trading vacuum exists when a market (or markets) gets so overdone to one side (bullish or bearish) all orders that drove them to [...]
The Fed Awaits
Morning Summary: Markets are waiting to see what the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, the Fed) does with interest rates this afternoon, at least according to the talking heads of financial media. The reality is most who actually listen [...]
Too Late for Prayin’
Session Summary: Staying with today’s theme of Gordon Lightfoot songs, I used “Too Late for Prayin’” from the singer’s 1974 album Sundown. It seems fitting for the day, with nearly every market sector showing a loss of some degree. The [...]
Minstrel of the Dawn
Morning Summary: The first news I saw this morning was music legend Gordon Lightfoot had passed away. I’ve listened to Mr. Lightfoot’s songs since I was a kid, so as my way of thanking him for the memories I’ll be [...]
The Beginning of the End
Session Summary: Monday’s session was one of those that makes you sit back and ponder once the closing bell rings. How much can we read into one day? According to the One Day Wisdom (One day does not a trend [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, April 27 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 1,518,202 mt (59.8 mb), up 62% from the previous week’s revised 938,841 mt (37.0 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
Another May Day
Morning Summary: Another May Day has arrived meaning it is the first day of the last month of the 2023 spring season. As old folks like me like to ask, where has the year gone? After I posted last night’s [...]
…May Flowers
As I was walking along the figurative path of my Monthly Supply and Demand and Analysis for May, I had to stop and smell some of the flowers. Of the markets I covered, meaning I haven’t even looked in the [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 932 mb (blue column) through Thursday, April 20, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 60% of what [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 1.717 bb (blue column) through Thursday, April 20, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 79% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 7,013 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, April 20, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 7.999 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, April 20, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 66% of [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 595 mb (blue column) through Thursday, April 20, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 87% of [...]
A Waiting Game
Session Summary: With Hump Day behind us, we are now in a waiting game for the end of the month. That’s not to say the next two days won’t be active, as markets can get volatile around month-end, but a [...]
The Bouncing Dollar
Morning Summary: The US dollar index has been all over the place this week. After consolidating last week, the greenback dropped as much as 0.57 Monday before rallying 0.70 off its Monday low through Tuesday’s high. Along the way, the [...]
Cold Storage Report: March 2023
The USDA/NASS Cold Storage report for March 31, 2023 was released Tuesday. Total beef was down 4% from the previous month and down 10% from March 2022 Like other aspects of the beef industry, we have to keep in mind [...]
Another Big Day
Session Summary: A number of markets made big moves again Tuesday with orange juice leading the way with a gain of 1.9%. In fact, softs were in the spotlight as sugar followed with a 0.7% rally of its own. Platinum [...]
A Quiet Place
Morning Summary: Overnight trade was a quiet place through early Tuesday morning, with seemingly not a creature stirring, not even a mouse. This seems odd to me, not only because a number of markets made large moves Monday but because [...]
An Interesting Start
Session Summary: The first day of the last week of the fourth month is now behind us, and it was interesting. A number of markets stood out, starting with the US dollar index as it weakened by as much as [...]
Weekly Export Inspections
The weekly Export Inspections report for the week ending Thursday, April 20 was released Monday morning. Corn inspections came in at 923,813 mt (36.0 mb), down 26% from the previous week’s revised 1,237,260 mt (48.7 mb). Total marketing year inspections [...]
Not as Manic
Morning Summary: Markets in general were relatively quiet coming out of a late spring weekend. I’ll talk about some of the implications for the grain and oilseed complex, with the key being a weekend freeze ahead of another rain event. [...]
Time for the Weekend
Session Summary: We’ve reached the end of another trading week, and though it was only five days a lot happened. We saw a number of markets rally, then have the bottom fall out as a large-scale wave of noncommercial selling [...]
Preview: April 1 Cattle on Feed Report
USDA is set to release its Cattle on Feed report for April 1 at 14:00 (CT) Friday. This includes: The number of cattle on feed Cattle placed during March Cattle marketed durning March A couple things to keep in mind: [...]
A Fine China Morning
Morning Summary: As most of you know, I had the privilege of working in one of the top ag media newsrooms for more than a decade. This provided me with all the latest news, important or not, that could make [...]
Another Red Number Day
Session Summary: The commodity complex was showing a lot of red again late Thursday, though not quite to the degree we saw 24 hours ago. This time around the clock we saw a few markets finish in the green led [...]
Corn Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. corn at 890 mb (blue column) through Thursday, April 13, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 57% of what [...]
Soybean Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybeans at 1.702 bb (blue column) through Thursday, April 13, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 78% of what [...]
Soybean Meal Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. soybean meal at 6,762 thousand metric tons (blue columns) through Thursday, April 13, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of [...]
Cotton Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of U.S. cotton at 7.579 million bales (blue column) through Thursday, April 13, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 64% of [...]
All Wheat Sales and Shipments
The latest weekly export sales and shipment update showed 2022-2023 marketing year export shipments of all U.S. wheat at 584 mb (blue column) through Thursday, April 13, a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 85% of [...]
A Thunderous Thursday
Morning Summary: National radar early Thursday morning shows a large thunderstorm system has made its way from Kansas and Nebraska into Missouri and Iowa. From a personal point of view, listening to the storm roll through here in Omaha was [...]
Rose Colored Glasses
Session Summary: At first glance, one would think they were wearing a pair of John Conlee’s Rose Colored Glasses when looking at this afternoon’s Barchart Futures Market Heat Map. At the top we see every sector showing some shade of [...]