After posting a look at the Dream Team being assembled by the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index as it has stretched its incredible run to 33 consecutive days of strengthening, a good friend asked if I could do something similar [...]

As I mentioned the last couple days in my daily Basis Index Update, the best word to describe the trend of the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index is "incredible". However, I thought of another way of describing it, one I'm [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Tuesday, April 13. The cmdty National Soybean Basis Index was calculated at 22.17 cents under May futures This was also up up 0.49 cent from Monday and 4.00 cents from last [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Monday, April 12. I would say the stronger across the board basis calculations were a result of the sharp selloff in the grain and oilseed complex Monday but we've seen the [...]

Soybean basis has been an interesting study over the course of the 2020-2021 marketing year. Incredible export demand over the first half of the marketing year (September through February) quickly erased US available supplies with my monthly calculation of stocks-to-use [...]

The cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) continued to strengthen last week, calculated last Friday* at 12.96 cents under May futures contract (green circle marker). This was up roughly 1.25 cents from the previous Friday's close of [...]

The word of the day seems to be "impressive", as I'm borrowing it from my comments on corn to describe soybean basis. Friday afternoon saw the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index calculated at 29.46 cents under May futures, 2.55 cents [...]

When I post the cmdty National Basis Index updates every afternoon, there is one that seems to consistently be an outlier. Recall from Tuesday's edition when four out of the five were in the green, with the exception being the [...]

Yes, today is the day for corned beef, with a well made Reuben sandwich sounding pretty good for lunch. Speaking of beefed up corn, take a look at what the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) has [...]

As I mentioned in Monday's Basis Index Update Quick Take, there is no stopping the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index. It's a runaway train, seeming gaining almost 0.5 cent every day. Monday's calculation of the NSBI was no different, coming [...]

Recent price activity in the Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) wheat market may be raising a few bearish eyebrows, most notably with what looks to be a double-top on the weekly chart for the old-crop May contract and bearish [...]

Though it has been a while since I posted this study, some of you may recall I like to look at national average corn basis over the course of the market year versus the September futures contract. Why September? Because [...]

As I mentioned in Thursday's Basis Index Update, the cmdty National HRW Wheat Basis Index (HWBI, weighted national average) has been running wild and free of late, its potential almost limitless. With the key word being "almost", because Friday is [...]

Those of you of a certain age know where I pulled the title of this piece from (An extra round of Kentucky's finest to you on this Whiskey Wednesday for knowing). The lyric is a perfect fit for this look [...]

The cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) was calculated at 39.6 cents under March futures Monday afternoon, the strongest the NSBI has been in relation to nearby futures since January 24, 2020, or roughly 13 months. The [...]

As I mentioned Monday morning, this week was going to be interesting for all the cmdty National Basis Indexes given the delivery period for March futures contracts starts at the end of month. First up is the corn market, with [...]

As you may recall from Wednesday's Afternoon Commentary, I was looking for national average soybean to possibly weaken Wednesday afternoon given the solid commercial selling seen in the nearby March futures spread. However, when the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index [...]

I don't know if there is a more bullish market, in any sector, than US soybeans. As I talked about at the end of January, the 2020-2021 marketing year daily average price for the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, [...]

It's interesting to note that since the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) rolled from the December 2020 to the March 2021 as the underlying futures contract, the trend has been down (weakening basis). The last reading [...]

As I mentioned in my latest Weekly Column, "$20 Soybeans!", national average basis did indeed weaken slightly with last Friday's calculation of the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) coming in at 44.8 cents under March futures [...]

Over the last few weeks I've talked often of the corn market's real fundamentals of national average basis and futures spreads waving warning signs. The flag team increased in size Tuesday as we now see national average basis starting to [...]

From a media point of view, last week was a busy week for me as I appeared on three ag television shows and two podcasts. The theme across the board was the same: I see signs of concern regarding the [...]

I had a request come in for a look at national average basis for HRW wheat. First, thank you, I appreciate all the requests and conversations we've been having about both fundamental and technical analysis. Second, the 2020-2021 marketing year [...]

As I mentioned in Monday morning's Chart of the Day, "February Lean Hogs: Double Toppin'", time is running out on the Feb lean hog futures contract meaning attention will soon be turning to April. Given that, let's take a look [...]

The cmdty National Corn Basis Index was calculated at 17.2 cents under March futures at the end of last week (solid green line), a new high versus the March futures contract and edging closer to the previous 4-year high of [...]

One of the fundamental factors I talked about in my latest Weekly Column, "Applying the Rules", was the incredible strength of national average soybean basis. This chart compares the 2020-2021 weekly closes of the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, [...]

In Monday's Morning Commentary, I mentioned how national average basis for HRW wheat has started to stagnate as the futures market rallied. And while this is certainly a market factor we need to keep an eye on, particularly with futures [...]

As I mentioned in Monday's Afternoon Commentary and Tuesday's morning's Chart of the Day ("February Live Cattle: Bears Not Hibernating Yet"), much of the pressure that has turned Feb live cattle's secondary (intermediate-term) trend down again continues to come from [...]

Tuesday afternoon brought with it the first calculation of the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national l average) versus the March 2021 futures contract. The initial read came in at 21.8 cents under (large green circle marker), coming [...]

I had a question come in this past weekend from a friend in Kansas regarding milo basis. As you may recall from previous posts, grain sorghum has been on fire over the last year implying ongoing strong demand at a [...]

Corn basis just continues to climb higher, largely ignoring all that is going on around it. The cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) was calculated at 18.2 cents under December futures Monday afternoon, taking out the previous [...]

The path of the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) has been fascinating since this past spring. In late April, as we neared the roll of the NCBI from the May contract (K) to the July issue [...]

I mentioned in Morning Commentary how the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) may be warning us export demand is waning. Not sales, with that ship having sailed with the collapsing inverse seen in futures spreads, but [...]

As I was putting together Weekly Analysis this past weekend, one study that jumped out at me was this look at the cmdty National Soft Red Winter (SRW) Wheat Basis (SWBI, weighted national average). Last Friday saw the SWBI calculated [...]

Those of you who came here from Thursday morning's Chart of the Day, "When Pigs Fly", can now see why I'm bullish lean hog fundamentals longer term. The 2021 edition of this spread (green line) was calculated at (-$2.40) Wednesday [...]

Monday afternoon saw the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) rolled from the in-delivery November contract to the January issue. This is always an interesting time of year when it comes to soybean basis, made even more [...]

As you know, I'm a gib proponent of keeping a close eye on basis, and since I have a national audience I usually focus on the cmdty National Basis Indexes. These are weighted national averages that show the differential between [...]

As I was putting together Weekly Analysis this past weekend, one of the markets that jumped out at me was basis for soft red winter (SRW) wheat. While basis indexes strengthened week-to-week for all the other indexes, including hard red [...]

I have a number friends from southwest Kansas, and one of them checked in Friday morning to talk about milo (grain sorghum to all of you not from the area). He told be he would be finishing harvest today and [...]

Corn basis remains on an incredible run as the 2020-2021 marketing year gets under way with the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) calculated at 28.6 cents under December futures (as of Friday, October 2), well above [...]

Many of you will recall that I like to track corn basis on a continuous route, using the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) versus the September futures contract to remove all the carry and [...]

The corn market, in all its different parts, has embarked on the 2020-2021 marketing year. leaving its initial mark at the close of last Friday, September 4. A key part of the market, I often refer to it as the [...]

A good friend from western Kansas has asked about my thoughts on the milo (grain sorghum for those of you not from Kansas) market in her part of the world. Using the Excel add-on to my cmdtyView (Barchart) system, I [...]

Those of you following along with my commentary know I've been tracking soybean basis, though differently than most as I skipped the waste of time August and September contracts and went starting to November at the end of June as [...]

There are a number of factors starting to lean more toward the bullish side in corn, with the minor (short-term) trend of the December contract turning up (see Tuesday morning's Chart of the Day), due in part to commercial buying [...]

I mentioned a couple key points about national average soybean basis in Wednesday's Morning Commentary, most notably the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) was calculated at 45 1/2 cents under the lightly traded August contract Tuesday [...]

As we quickly approach the end of July, meaning the nearby August lean hog contract becomes more heavily tied to the cash market, attention will turn to the October-December futures spread. At first glance we see a similar picture to [...]

I was keeping a close eye on national soybean basis late last week, so Thursday's jump of 3 1/2 cents certainly grabbed my attention. I waited through Friday's calculation of the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) [...]

I was visiting with a good friend last night about live cattle. I had already poured a bourbon, and he may or may not have been enjoying his favorite adult beverage as well. We were both scratching our head about [...]

Though technically not "basis", the price difference between cash and futures, I want to discuss the sinking of the August-October lean hog futures spread in this space. To me, it gives a clear picture of short-term fundamentals in hogs that [...]

Let's just take a moment to recognize the impressive run national average corn basis has had while based off the July 2020 futures contract. After rolling from the May issue between April 30 and May 1, the cmdty National Corn [...]

Those of you who following along with my analysis over the 2019-2020 marketing year recall I've been fascinated by the strength seen in soybeans. A look at this daily chart for the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national [...]

You may notice this is my third consecutive post on hard red winter wheat harvest with the first looking at the overall trend (what), the second focusing on central Kansas specifically (where), and this one answering a question generated by [...]

Yes, I've been talking quite a bit about HRW wheat, harvest, and Kansas lately and am doing so again in this basis update. A good friend of mine, a producer consultant, called in and we discussed central Kansas HRW wheat [...]

The cmdty National HRW Wheat Basis Index (HWBI, weighted national average) has been posting some impressive Elliott Wave patterns of late, with the previous 3-wave downtrend leading into the current 5-wave uptrend, the latter a pattern that seems to be [...]

Last week saw the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) continue a solid rebound off its recent low of 34 3/4 cents under July futures, a low posted the last week of April in conjunction with the [...]

A good friend asked if I could update my corn and soybean basis charts this morning. I appreciate the request, so will start with soybeans. Last Friday saw the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) calculated at [...]

At first glance, the cmdty National Hard Red Winter (HRW) Wheat Basis Index (HWBI, weighted national average) looks bullish as we head toward the end of the 2019-2020 marketing year (green line) at the conclusion of May. Thursday's calculation of [...]

It has been a while since I posted a corn basis update, and let's just say some things have changed. For the 2019-2020 marketing year (green line), the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) looks to have [...]

As we close the book on the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) based off the May 2020 futures contract, we see the market remains on an incredible journey that began back on November 1, 2018 with [...]

Those of you who have been following along with the old-corp soybean Theoretical Position in Weekly Analysis: Oilseeds recall the 2019 crop has been 100% hedged in the futures market, with the roll from March to May done on December [...]

One of the more interesting aspects of the wheat complex last week was the breakdown by national average soft red winter (SRW) wheat basis. I track this by charting the cmdty National SRW Wheat Basis Index (SRBI, weighted national average), [...]

I had a question come in late Sunday about my corn basis study using the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national cash average) minus the September futures contract. I do this because September futures span the entirety of [...]

I had an interesting question asked Friday, as live cattle (and lean hogs) closed down the expanded limit $4.50. Taking a look at the live cattle market my friend asked, "So, has supply and demand been thrown out the window?" [...]

Again, since I don't have a great single source of cash data for the various livestock markets (e.g. cmdty National Price Indexes for grains), I look at nearby futures spreads for the bottom line read on livestock fundamentals. And in [...]

The corn market continues to show a drought is in effect. I'm sure that got your attention, given subsoil could be conservatively classified as "ample" across most of the U.S. Plains and Midwest. Yet, as we look at this chart [...]

I've had a number of conversations about deferred cattle (both live and feeders) the last few days, with the most recent a question coming in about my October live cattle daily chart analysis (see Thursday's Chart of the Day, "Not [...]

As I've said in the past, for now I continue to use livestock futures spreads in lieu of a consistent basis market to track underlying fundamentals. Livestock futures spreads are different from what I talk about in grain given there [...]

After I posted the look at national average corn basis over the weekend, the one taking a look at the market's 10-year history looking for a marketing year showing similar patterns, the request came in to do the same for [...]

Those of you who have read through my analysis (Report Commentary: Corn Ending Stocks-to-Use) of what the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) is saying about 2019-2020 ending stocks-to-use (ES/U) might've been wondering the same thing I [...]

A friend of mine, a well respected reporter for a major media company that covers ag, updated me on Brazil's early harvest Monday. She reported that as of last Friday, "soybeans in Moto Grosso were 14.4% harvested, slightly above above [...]

Did you happen to catch the last little grain of salt in the wound that was Tuesday's sell-off in soybeans? Not only did the futures market fall more than 13 cents, but the March -May futures spread saw its carry [...]

A week ago in this space I posted a look at the Feb-April lean hog spread showing how the 2020 edition continues to run below the previous 5-year low (January 13, "Still Fundamentally Bearish"). As we enter the home-stretch of [...]

As I've mentioned in my daily commentary this week, one of the basis markets to watch was U.S. spring wheat, with the cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Basis Index (HSBI, weighted national average) threatening a potential breakdown. Wednesday afternoon [...]

As I have in the past, I'm putting this lean hog spread study in Basis Analysis rather than Seasonal Analysis of Chart of the Day as it's the best study I have for showing fundamental analysis of a livestock market. [...]

Now that the hubbub of USDA's January reports have come and gone, we are back to the business of study real fundamentals versus the government's imaginary kind. One of the most interesting charts, of the hundreds I have working at [...]

Here's a question you probably weren't expecting this fine Thursday morning; How many of you remember the Sesame Street song, "One of These Things"? Okay, I see a few hands out there, as well as a couple folks scratching their [...]

Soybean basis; be it local, regional, state, or national, continues to be an incredible story as the 2019 portion of the 2019-2020 marketing year comes to a close. This past Friday (December 27) marked the last time the cmdty National [...]

One of the markets I was most interested in last week was national average soybean basis. With January futures gaining 18 cents and March adding 17 3/4 cents for the week, the possibility was there the cmdty National Soybean Basis [...]

Today is the First of December, meaning it is also the First Day of Winter according to the meteorological calendar. A look at the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) for 2019-2020 (green line) shows national average [...]

The live cattle market has been impressive of late, with Monday's session seeing the February contract taking out its previous high (on the weekly chart) of $125.775. Monday's high was $125.825. The interesting thing about live cattle, particularly the Feb [...]

In the same conversation with the gentleman Monday evening regarding Feb lean hog fundamentals, the subject of the Dec-to-Feb lean hog spread came up. He thought he had seen mention of it somewhere on the website before, but couldn't find [...]

My discussion of a conversation I had last night with a customer regarding accumulator contracts also brings up the subject of basis. Another of the components of such a contract is establishing a delivery period and setting basis before delivery. [...]

While not technically a basis chart, this chart plotting weekly closes of the Dec-to-Feb live cattle spread is the closest thing I have to a fundamental read. In other words, I don't have basis information available on the live cattle [...]

I mentioned last week's stronger soybean basis in Monday's Morning Commentary, strength that has finally taken the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) calculation for 2019-2020 (green line) above the 5-year average (purple line). Last Friday saw [...]

Recall from our previous discussions of the cmdty National Hard Red Spring (HRS) Wheat National Basis Index (HSBI, weighted national average) from September 15, "As the Market Turns", seasonally the HSBI tends to post a low in September. As this [...]

If you've had the chance to read my Report Preview, "The Rubber Band Disposition", you'll recall I talked about one of the bullish fundamental factors being a stronger than normal national average basis. If you haven't read it, I'll give [...]

One of the ways I like to track national average corn basis is by using the September futures contract as the base over the course of the marketing year. While the September is often viewed as a "hybrid" contract, sometimes [...]

The cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average basis) continues to stay firm just ahead of the release of USDA's Quarterly Stocks report. This set of numbers, stocks on hand as of September 1, includes the de-facto 2018-2019 [...]

The early stages of the 2019-2020 marketing year (green line) find the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) laying dormant between the weakest readings over the previous 5 marketing years (red line) and the average weekly basis [...]

Two weeks into the new 2019-2020 marketing year and its the same old story for the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average basis). Note that 2019-2020 (green line) has posted weekly closes of 17 1/4 cents under [...]

A close look at the attached chart shows hard red spring wheat basis tends to post its low within the first couple weeks of September, before usually posting a solid rally. A study of the green circles shows the outlier [...]