Still the Same

2021-09-28T06:02:02-05:00September 28th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If you read Monday’s Morning Commentary, then you’ll like what’s in store for Tuesday because markets are pretty much the same. The grain and oilseed complex is quietly mixed, as are softs. Meanwhile, metals are under pressure as [...]

Game of Thrones

2021-09-24T06:10:36-05:00September 24th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: One of the first financial news discussions I heard this morning had to do with Costco announcing purchase limits on toilet paper, but that wasn’t the most interesting throne-related news early Friday morning. The other hot topic was [...]

Dollar Down

2021-09-23T06:16:23-05:00September 23rd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The US dollar index was under pressure overnight through early Thursday morning, following through on recent bearish technical signals as traders try to decide what to think about US Fed Chairman Powell’s comments Wednesday afternoon. The general consensus [...]

Newton Knew

2021-09-21T06:07:08-05:00September 21st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Yes, “Turnaround Tuesday” is cliché, and a phrase vastly overused in the market commentary industry. But there is a tendency, particularly following a macro event like what we saw Monday, for markets to react the opposite direction. In [...]

Rain Delay

2021-09-20T06:21:10-05:00September 20th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary:  We did see some harvest taking place as we traveled between Omaha, Nebraska and Kansas City this past weekend. Late last week I had a few reports come in of combines getting fired up, mostly across the US [...]

More of the Same

2021-09-15T06:06:21-05:00September 15th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: There was no widespread turnaround activity Tuesday night following the day session’s mostly higher close to the commodity sector. The US dollar index was under pressure once again, falling as much as 0.23 and sitting within the shadow [...]

And Here We Go

2021-09-13T06:12:39-05:00September 13th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: While the grain and oilseed complex was relatively quiet overnight through Monday morning, other sectors were seeing solid activity. Most of the talk on CNBC to start the day was of coming tax increases and the bearish effect [...]

Memories

2021-09-10T05:59:53-05:00September 10th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Well, we’ve reached another USDA report day, and I don’t have to tell most of you of my loathing of these things. But there has been some fun with the September round of silliness in the past, most [...]

Second Hand News

2021-09-09T06:18:06-05:00September 9th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The big news Wednesday was so big I didn’t hear of it second hand until long after markets had closed and Afternoon Commentary had been posted. Reportedly, FSA had mistakenly posted 2021 acreage registrations rather than waiting for [...]

Back to Work

2021-09-07T06:19:22-05:00September 7th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Welcome back from the long 3-day US holiday weekend though markets were still acting a bit groggy. Th US dollar index was showing a modest gain, adding as much as 0.13 early and putting light pressure on the [...]

Fall In

2021-09-01T05:51:19-05:00September 1st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Good morning everyone, and welcome to the first day of meteorological fall. Wednesday’s early markets aren’t much different than what we saw 24 hours ago as summer was set to end. However, the energy complex was back in [...]

It Figures

2021-08-31T05:50:09-05:00August 31st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: And here we are, the last day of meteorological summer, and much of the eastern US has seen rain over the last 24 hours (see attached map). It figures, given how dry the summer quarter was for so [...]

It Rained

2021-08-25T05:59:38-05:00August 25th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I’m old enough to remember a time when an overnight rain system covering most of the 3-I states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana in late August would put heavy pressure on corn and soybean markets. This time around [...]

Leftovers

2021-08-20T06:12:02-05:00August 20th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s a Friday morning in late August meaning there isn’t much new to talk about. Thursday’s story was the strength of the US dollar adding to the weakness of the commodity sector in general, with shades of that [...]

The Dollar Story

2021-08-19T05:58:18-05:00August 19th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The first thing that jumped out at me Thursday morning was the extended rally by the US dollar index. After posting a solid rally Wednesday, the idea was the greenback could come under pressure overnight through early Thursday [...]

July Jobs

2021-08-06T06:17:38-05:00August 6th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Today’s title sounds like a summer action movie, doesn’t it? Possibly about a rogue member of a powerful family owning the largest computer company in the world hunting down global hackers. If such a movie existed, my guess [...]

Nothing There

2021-07-21T06:18:44-05:00July 21st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The first thing that jumped out at me as I ran the normal market traps Wednesday morning was nothing. As in the 5-day precipitation forecast map is largely empty for the US Plains and Midwest. As in markets [...]

As Expected

2021-07-20T06:16:29-05:00July 20th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I know the phrase “Turnaround Tuesday” gets tossed around a great deal, and my late friend and CBOT floor reporter Gary Wilhelmi didn’t think much about the idea, but as one who follows cycles and patterns it’s a [...]

Still the Same

2021-07-09T05:47:51-05:00July 9th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at both the 5-day precipitation forecast and past 24-hour precipitation accumulation maps shows a similar picture to what we’ve seen the last couple mornings. Much of the US Northern Plains and upper Midwest, including Iowa, saw [...]

Ready for the Show

2021-07-02T05:42:27-05:00July 2nd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As I mentioned in Thursday’s Afternoon Commentary, the grain and oilseed complex could be on the threshold of the most volatile WWW (Wraparound Weather-market Weekend) Activity of the year starting today and lasting through Tuesday morning given the [...]

Still Sleeping

2021-06-29T06:17:49-05:00June 29th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: One can’t blame the markets for sleeping in Tuesday morning after most sectors posted volatile trade starting overnight Sunday through Monday’s close. However, when markets do wake up and the morning coffee kicks in, most will see the [...]

A Reprieve

2021-06-23T06:01:16-05:00June 23rd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As expected, the grain and oilseed complex was able to post a modest rally overnight on generally light trade volume, with Minneapolis (HRS) wheat still leading the way. Just as Tuesday’s strong noncommercial-led selloff wasn’t a huge surprise, [...]

It’s Fed Day Wednesday

2021-06-16T06:02:58-05:00June 16th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, The Fed) will make its latest announcement on interest rates Wednesday afternoon with the general consensus being no move will be made. However, commentators are talking about how the wording of [...]

Not Enough

2021-06-11T05:56:00-05:00June 11th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at Friday morning’s radar gives us an idea as to “why” new-crop corn, soybeans, and spring wheat markets are under pressure to start the day, but the reality is this fast-moving line of thunderstorms isn’t going [...]

Here We Go Again

2021-06-08T06:17:31-05:00June 8th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s another summer morning, meaning the grain and oilseed complex was higher again overnight. Similar to 24 hours ago, contracts have lost some of their bullish enthusiasm, not unusual pre-dawn activity as traders wait for the next weather [...]

A Green Morning

2021-06-04T05:52:32-05:00June 4th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary:  The grain and oilseed complex rallied again overnight, erasing Thursday’s loss and setting the stage for what should be another volatile opening round of WWW (Wraparound Weather-market Weekend) Activity. A look at the past 72-hour precipitation map shows [...]

Up and Running

2021-06-02T05:52:48-05:00June 2nd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary:  The JBS cyberattack was front and center in financial news again this morning, with the talk from the company being most of its operations will be up and running Wednesday. Again this sounds familiar to what Colonial Pipeline [...]

Dollar Daze

2021-05-25T06:09:22-05:00May 25th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The US dollar index was under pressure again overnight and still sitting in the red early Tuesday morning. This sets up what should be an interesting end of May/beginning of June timeframe, with the greenback’s long-term monthly chart [...]

Should Be Fun

2021-05-20T06:13:38-05:00May 20th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Given what we saw at the end of Wednesday’s session and overnight through early Thursday morning, Thursday promises to be a fun day. As we get rolling on a new day both the energy and metals complexes were [...]

It Rained Again

2021-05-17T05:59:36-05:00May 17th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: While the commodity sector in general stabilized overnight the grain and oilseed complex was under pressure. This highlights the difference between futures markets (gold, copper, crude oil, etc.) and weather derivatives (corn, soybeans, wheat, and so on). The [...]

Recovery Day

2021-05-14T06:08:00-05:00May 14th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The commodity sector was able to recover some of Thursday’s collapse overnight, with green numbers posted nearly across the board. At first glance I find three exceptions early Friday: July canola is down $1.50 (0.2%), July cocoa is [...]

Return to Routine

2021-05-12T06:07:27-05:00May 12th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick glance across the market landscape Wednesday morning shows a more familiar sight, with the commodity sector mostly higher. Some markets, like those in the oilseed complex, were showing sharp gains with the in-delivery May soybean oil [...]

It Rained

2021-05-10T06:11:47-05:00May 10th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: This past weekend was notable for a few reasons. First, Colonial Pipeline, one of the United States’ largest pipelines carrying refined gasoline form the Gulf Coast to New York, had to be shut down Friday night following a [...]

Another Green Screen, Mostly

2021-05-07T06:14:16-05:00May 7th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: it’s another day ending in “y”, so that means commodities in general must be higher. There were a few glitches as the energy complex traded lower overnight, the crude oil market falling as much as $0.34 before gaining [...]

Another Mixed Morning

2021-05-04T06:20:47-05:00May 4th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If you liked what you saw as markets got under way for the month of May Monday, you should enjoy the follow-up activity overnight through early Tuesday morning. Let’s start with the stronger US dollar index as it [...]

Worth Noticing

2021-04-30T05:51:11-05:00April 30th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Friday is first notice day for May futures contracts in the grain and oilseed complex, and there were a few interesting developments. Going on the assumption “a large number of deliveries tend to pressure nearby futures while a [...]

Something to Talk About

2021-04-28T06:27:59-05:00April 28th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: First, my apologies for Morning Commentary being late this morning. It has been an interesting Wednesday so far. While I was waiting for computer updates to finish, I noticed a number of familiar commodities being talked about as [...]

Now THAT’S a Squeeze

2021-04-27T05:58:05-05:00April 27th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Because of how I’ve set up my cmdtyView quote screen, the first thing I see most mornings is the grain and oilseed complex, and the top contract is nearby corn. Tuesday morning, when I fired up the old [...]

Taking a Breather

2021-04-23T06:07:59-05:00April 23rd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Given the incredible move we’ve seen in the grain and oilseed complex this week, it’s not overly surprising markets took a breather overnight through early Friday morning. However, we need to keep in mind what I mentioned in [...]

More of the Same

2021-04-20T05:48:20-05:00April 20th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If you liked what you saw Monday in the grain and oilseed complex, then you won’t be disappointed in what the markets did overnight through early Tuesday morning. If, on the other hand, you were uncomfortable with Monday’s [...]

Dollar Down

2021-04-19T06:02:11-05:00April 19th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: That crashing sound you heard overnight was the US dollar index falling through support and technical price targets, reaching a low of 91.08, its lowest level since March 4. Conversely, as one would expect, the euro rocketed through [...]

Casual Friday

2021-04-16T05:50:56-05:00April 16th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Most commodity markets took a much more relaxed approach overnight, some might even call it casual, generally showing muted moves early Friday morning. The US dollar index was down slightly, while the euro posted a small rally, both [...]

The Song Remains the Same

2021-04-15T05:57:51-05:00April 15th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of the markets early Thursday morning shows us much the same as we’ve seen of late. The US dollar index is under light pressure, though the euro and Brazilian real have also drifted lower, and [...]

Turn the Page

2021-04-12T12:07:44-05:00April 12th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We made it to another week, this one including the midpoint of the month of April, and meteorological spring, meaning even more attention will be paid to weather and new-crop grain markets. I’ll talk more about this in [...]

Opening Day

2021-04-01T05:31:29-05:00April 1st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We made it to Thursday morning, April 1, Opening Day for more than the 2021 Major League Baseball season. We can also consider the start of April as having crossed the threshold into planting season across North America, [...]

Follow-Through Tuesday

2021-03-30T05:38:51-05:00March 30th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If you liked what you saw at the end of Monday’s session, then you won’t be disappointed with what markets are showing us early Tuesday. Most are on the same path with the US dollar index stronger, the [...]

Green Again

2021-03-26T06:00:52-05:00March 26th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The commodity sector was mostly in the green again early Friday morning, led by renewed buying interest in the energy complex. Here we see most markets up more than 2%, with distillates leading the way with a 2.5% [...]

A Lot of Red

2021-03-22T06:05:10-05:00March 22nd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of markets early Monday shows a lot of red to start the week, with metals hit hardest. Silver was down 2.7% to start the day while gold was off 0.6% and copper slipped 0.1% lower. [...]

“A Frothy Exchange”

2021-03-19T06:03:41-05:00March 19th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The commodity sector stabilized overnight through early Friday morning with many markets gaining back some of what was lost during Thursday’s extraordinary session. Crude oil was up $0.70 (1.1%) with flat futures spreads indicating most of the support [...]

Just Another Morning

2021-03-18T05:58:45-05:00March 18th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: An initial check of markets early Thursday shows nothing extraordinary, nothing that immediately grabs the attention and says, “Talk about this first.” Instead, we see markets similar to what we’ve grown accustomed to with the US dollar index [...]

Feeling the Pinch

2021-03-17T05:58:02-05:00March 17th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: While some of the markets went along with the Wearing of the Green early Wednesday others were likely to feel a pinch, the result of failing to play the game on this St. Patrick’s Day. If you happen [...]

Not as It Seemed

2021-03-16T06:05:21-05:00March 16th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As I mentioned in Monday’s Afternoon Commentary, my interest first thing Tuesday morning would be changes seen in open interest in the grain and oilseed markets given the CME’s increased speculative position limits. Based on Monday’s market activity, [...]

A Quiet Morning

2021-03-10T05:55:24-06:00March 10th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Yes, some markets made big moves overnight through early Wednesday morning, most notably the grain and oilseed complex, but trade volume was relatively light across the board. The US dollar index had climbed back above 92.00, up about [...]

Dollar Down

2021-03-09T05:58:47-06:00March 9th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: One of the first things I noticed upon firing up the old quote screen Tuesday morning was the US dollar index was under pressure to start the day. The greenback had erased as much as 0.42 of its [...]

More of the Same

2021-03-08T06:06:21-06:00March 8th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If you’ve liked what you’ve seen in the markets lately, then you should be pleased with where things are early Monday. The US dollar index strengthened again, rallying as much as 0.32 overnight, while US Treasury futures were [...]

Through Bloodshot Eyes

2021-03-04T05:50:07-06:00March 4th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: After pouring myself the usual cup of coffee to start the day, my first trip through running the traps of the various market sectors made me think I was looking at the world through bloodshot eyes. Treasury futures [...]

A Mixed Morning

2021-03-03T06:01:37-06:00March 3rd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Checking the commodity sector early Wednesday shows us mixed results, with the energy complex showing a strong gain and metals a solid selloff. In the energy complex, crude oil was up almost 2% with the spot-month contract gaining [...]

3-2-(2)1 Go!

2021-03-02T06:02:05-06:00March 2nd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: What does the title of this morning’s Commentary mean? Not much, just that I noticed the day resembles the countdown: March (3) 2, (202)1. Okay, maybe I haven’t had enough coffee yet. A look at the markets early [...]

March of the Bulls

2021-03-01T06:01:11-06:00March 1st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We have crossed the bridge into meteorological spring and from what we’ve seen so far this March, the new month is much like what we’ve seen the last half-year. Metals led the way early Monday with silver up [...]

“This is the End…”

2021-02-26T08:29:54-06:00February 26th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Friday marks the last trading day of the week, month, and quarter while this weekend brings a close to meteorological winter. Given that, as we look ahead to the day, the opening sequence from Apocalypse Now might be [...]

Points of Interest

2021-02-25T05:52:24-06:00February 25th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: At first glance, Thursday morning markets seemed to be a bit calmer than what we’ve seen so far this week, with a couple of exceptions. First, 30-year T-bond futures fell to a new 13-month low of 160-07 overnight [...]

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