Dear Friends

2023-03-21T05:49:04-05:00March 21st, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Markets were generally quiet overnight, maybe out of respect for the meeting of self-proclaimed “dear friends” in Moscow. That was the main takeaway from China’s President Xi and Russia’s Putin, affirmation of their countries being “friendly neighbors” and [...]

Except For

2023-03-17T05:50:56-05:00March 17th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As legendary newsman Kent Brockman of The Simpsons fame would say, “Top of the morning to ‘ye on this gray drizzly afternoon when everyone is a little bit Irish, except for…”. I’ll paraphrase a bit here, to bring [...]

Turn to Stone

2023-03-14T05:53:41-05:00March 14th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Welcome to another Turnaround Tuesday, with this week’s edition expected to show us which markets actually turn, even if for a day, and which ones sink like a stone. The US dollar index was showing a small gain [...]

A Lot of Red

2023-03-10T06:02:56-06:00March 10th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick look at Friday morning’s Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows a lot of red. The only sector in the green is financials, meaning US Treasury futures, as traders presumably await the February jobs data set for [...]

Recovery Mode

2023-03-09T05:50:12-06:00March 9th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The commodity complex was mostly in the green early Thursday following two days of solid selloffs. Let’s start with the US dollar index as the greenback is in the red pre-dawn. From a technical point of view the [...]

Silent Night

2023-03-07T07:12:35-06:00March 7th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I wasn’t necessarily surprised by how quiet markets were overnight given how manic Monday turned out to be. Nearly every market sector showed me the same thing Tuesday morning: Contracts posting small changes on low trade volume. What’s [...]

All’s Quiet

2023-03-03T06:10:42-06:00March 3rd, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at the market landscape early Friday morning shows me all’s quiet on the commodity front. Well, maybe not all, as the metals sector posted a decent rally overnight. Here we see May silver leading the way [...]

Empty Traps

2023-03-02T05:52:04-06:00March 2nd, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Running the traps early Thursday morning, and I largely came up empty. Sure, all the markets moved overnight but nothing jumped out at me as particularly newsworthy. The US dollar index was stronger as it continues to chop [...]

Colour My World

2023-02-22T05:58:13-06:00February 22nd, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The Barchart Futures Market Heat Map is colourful early Wednesday morning, ranging from yesterday’s dark green livestock sector (these markets don’t trade overnight but still register on the map) to a bright red energies sector. In between we [...]

The World Stage

2023-02-21T06:03:11-06:00February 21st, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We are reminded again Tuesday morning that markets are not localized, but global. We had a hunch soybeans and soybean meal would react to reports of Saturday morning frost across parts of Argentina, and the markets moved overnight. [...]

Seeing Red

2023-02-06T06:01:18-06:00February 6th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As I said in Quick Takes Sunday night, I’ve been thinking a lot about the Chinese spy balloons found floating all over the world. I’m in the process of putting all these thoughts into a Column. I was [...]

Another Friday

2023-02-03T06:05:54-06:00February 3rd, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We’ve made it to another Friday, the last day of what has been an incredible week. So far we’ve seen the end of one month and beginning of another, bringing with it the usual long-term monthly technical and [...]

Still the Same

2023-01-25T05:45:14-06:00January 25th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of markets early this fine Wheat/Whisky Wednesday morning shows us much the same thing as we saw at Tuesday’s close. The US dollar index is quietly stronger, putting light pressure on the euro and Canadian [...]

A Quiet Morning

2023-01-24T06:03:16-06:00January 24th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I know as soon as I say, “It’s a quiet morning”, things will explode once again, but as I look across the commodity complex landscape I don’t see any overtly shocking moves. I can hear your question, “What [...]

One More Day

2023-01-20T06:13:59-06:00January 20th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We’ve reached Friday morning, one more day until another US holiday-shortened trading week comes to an end. Even though there has only been four business days this week, a number of markets have made big moves. In fact, [...]

To the Dump

2023-01-12T06:14:17-06:00January 12th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Yes, today is the day we get to go to the dump, as in a government data dump, also known as USDA’s January report day. (You can make the connection to trash if you so desire.) And as [...]

Another Day

2023-01-06T06:35:24-06:00January 6th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We’ve reached January 6, 2023, two years removed from the attempted overthrow of the US government, and little has happened to the perpetrators of the insurrection (for further discussion, see my reposts in Quick Takes and Weekly Column). [...]

Let’s Be Crude

2023-01-05T05:59:12-06:00January 5th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The first market headline that jumped out at me Thursday morning was Germany’s Miro refinery, reportedly the country’s second largest oil processing facility, said unplanned maintenance would take about four weeks to complete. Whether this was the catalyst [...]

Life Below Zero

2022-12-23T06:11:12-06:00December 23rd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: “Oh the weather outside is frightful…” A look at the temperature map (in Fahrenheit) this morning shows much of North America below zero as the cold air mass continues to expand. What is fascinating to me is sub-freezing [...]

The Red Cs

2022-12-16T06:09:50-06:00December 16th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at Friday morning’s Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows every commodity sector in the red, a situation I like to call The Red Cs (Commodity Complex). What makes today’s edition more interesting is the fact the [...]

Quietly Red

2022-11-21T05:49:33-06:00November 21st, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As we get rolling on this holiday-shortened week the US dollar index is showing some short-term strength. The greenback confirmed a short-term uptrend overnight as it hit a new 4-day high above 107.24. As of the writing the [...]

Soft or Hard

2022-11-18T06:11:15-06:00November 18th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: There was a lot of chatter overnight that could come into play in markets over the course of time. The piece of news I found most interesting talked of how the US Treasury yield curve was now more [...]

Dollar Down

2022-11-15T06:12:17-06:00November 15th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: There are mornings when one market jumps out at you, and this morning that market is the US dollar index. As always, I started the process of running the traps of the various market sectors with global currencies, [...]

Sleeping it Off

2022-11-09T06:00:16-06:00November 9th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Not a market was stirring overnight through early Wednesday morning, not even natural gas. A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows a lot of red, but a closer inspection shows most sectors and markets posting [...]

Opposite Day

2022-11-04T05:53:25-05:00November 4th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s always interesting the difference 24 hours can make when it comes to markets. Recall yesterday in this space I talked about how every market sector that traded overnight was in the red, due in part to a [...]

Seeing Red

2022-11-03T06:03:31-05:00November 3rd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A close look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map early Thursday and three markets stand out for showing green: The US dollar index, feeder cattle, and orange juice. However, if we consider feeders and orange juice don’t [...]

More Fun Ahead

2022-10-27T06:13:30-05:00October 27th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Thursday morning shows us a mixed market picture, not necessarily with rallies and selloffs for we know there is almost always some of both, but rather markets following Wednesday’s path while others reversed course. The US dollar index [...]

A Lot of Red

2022-10-24T06:21:20-05:00October 24th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I can’t go quite as far as calling early Monday a mixed morning, with most sectors in the commodity complex sitting in the red. Many of the outliers are in softs where cotton is fractionally higher while coffee [...]

More of the Same

2022-10-11T06:12:43-05:00October 11th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of the headlines Tuesday morning shows us not much changed overnight as Russia continues to rain down missiles on civilians in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Bank of England has “intervened in bond markets” for the second [...]

A Busy Weekend

2022-10-10T06:03:45-05:00October 10th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: There was a lot going on this weekend, with most of the news coming from Ukraine. Going back to last week there were reports (rumors?) of Russian trains taking nuclear weapons to the front, chatter the markets largely [...]

All Eyes on Vienna

2022-10-05T06:20:46-05:00October 5th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Financial television was dominated by two stories early Wednesday morning, one important and one infuriatingly trivial. However, both are perfect reflections of the times we live in and share a common connection to US mid-term elections. The important [...]

Green Day

2022-10-04T05:52:07-05:00October 4th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Though it is still pre-dawn for most of us, with sunrise seasonally getting later every day, markets aren’t showing much Turnaround tendency early Tuesday. The outlier is the one you would guess, with natural gas showing a small [...]

The Beginning

2022-10-03T05:49:54-05:00October 3rd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Welcome to a new week, a new month, and a new financial quarter. As markets get rolling we already see some sectors with a changed tone, most notably energies. Both Brent and WTI crude oil are up more [...]

The End

2022-09-30T06:04:16-05:00September 30th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As Jim Morrison once wrote, “This is the end…”, but in this case I’m talking about how Friday is the end of week, month, and financial quarter. And while that should be enough fun for one day, we [...]

Up to Eleven

2022-09-29T05:48:02-05:00September 29th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A classic line from the 1984 movie “This Is Spinal Tap” has one of the main characters explaining how the volume on his amplifier goes up to eleven rather than the standard 10. It’s a great scene, and [...]

Feeling a Draft

2022-09-21T06:00:04-05:00September 21st, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The first news I read Wednesday morning was of global markets reacting to the Madman Across the Water (Putin) instituting a draft to provide him more bodies to sacrifice in Ukraine. While this was some of what drove [...]

Financial Times

2022-09-20T06:09:57-05:00September 20th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at markets pre-dawn Tuesday shows us a generally quiet landscape as traders gear up for Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve interest rate hike announcement. The US dollar index is back in the green to start the day [...]

In the Green

2022-09-09T06:04:15-05:00September 9th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It was interesting to see nearly every market taking part in this week’s Green Friday[i]. While most commodities were showing gains of 0.75% to 1.5% pre-dawn, Dr. Copper once again led the way with a rally of more [...]

A Quieter Morning

2022-09-08T06:09:28-05:00September 8th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Most markets were much quieter than they were 24 hours ago, starting with the US dollar index. The greenback stabilized overnight following Wednesday’s wild session that saw it fall more than 1.00 off its new 20-year high. Early [...]

Just One Look

2022-08-30T06:28:25-05:00August 30th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: All it takes is a quick glance at the quote screen early this morning and the phrase comes to mind. In fact, I was asked mid-morning Monday about the possibility of such a thing happening, so entrenched is [...]

T.I.G.F.

2022-08-26T05:58:16-05:00August 26th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We made it to Friday, and beyond that my morning quote screen is showing it to be a T.I.G.F (Turnaround In Grains Friday). But the grain and oilseed sector wasn’t alone as we also saw energies erase some [...]

Fast and Furious

2022-08-24T06:12:17-05:00August 24th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The grain and oilseed complex continued its fast and furious rally overnight through early Wednesday morning with December corn gaining as much as 11.5 cents while November soybeans jumped as much as 19.25 cents. Trade volume was decent, [...]

Green Screens

2022-08-11T06:01:16-05:00August 11th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Markets were much as we left them Wednesday afternoon, with only a couple exceptions. Gold was in the red, slightly, as the heat seems to have been turned down ever so slightly under the China/Taiwan/US situation. It’s possible [...]

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