Through Bloodshot Eyes

2021-03-04T05:50:07-06:00March 4th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: After pouring myself the usual cup of coffee to start the day, my first trip through running the traps of the various market sectors made me think I was looking at the world through bloodshot eyes. Treasury futures [...]

A Mixed Morning

2021-03-03T06:01:37-06:00March 3rd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Checking the commodity sector early Wednesday shows us mixed results, with the energy complex showing a strong gain and metals a solid selloff. In the energy complex, crude oil was up almost 2% with the spot-month contract gaining [...]

3-2-(2)1 Go!

2021-03-02T06:02:05-06:00March 2nd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: What does the title of this morning’s Commentary mean? Not much, just that I noticed the day resembles the countdown: March (3) 2, (202)1. Okay, maybe I haven’t had enough coffee yet. A look at the markets early [...]

March of the Bulls

2021-03-01T06:01:11-06:00March 1st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We have crossed the bridge into meteorological spring and from what we’ve seen so far this March, the new month is much like what we’ve seen the last half-year. Metals led the way early Monday with silver up [...]

“This is the End…”

2021-02-26T08:29:54-06:00February 26th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Friday marks the last trading day of the week, month, and quarter while this weekend brings a close to meteorological winter. Given that, as we look ahead to the day, the opening sequence from Apocalypse Now might be [...]

Points of Interest

2021-02-25T05:52:24-06:00February 25th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: At first glance, Thursday morning markets seemed to be a bit calmer than what we’ve seen so far this week, with a couple of exceptions. First, 30-year T-bond futures fell to a new 13-month low of 160-07 overnight [...]

Another Spring-Like Day

2021-02-24T05:42:45-06:00February 24th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Commodities in general continue to live in a world where every morning (or so it seems) brings more green. Just like spring. Similar to Tuesday morning, the oilseed complex led the way higher once again with soybeans and [...]

A Different Oil Leads the Way

2021-02-23T06:01:37-06:00February 23rd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The story Monday afternoon was crude oil’s 4% rally to start the week, though canola wasn’t far behind when the final bell rang. As Tuesday gets underway, the oilseed complex is roaring higher once again with canola up [...]

Back in the Office

2021-02-19T06:07:35-06:00February 19th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Good morning everyone. I am back in the office and appreciate your patience while I was on the road this week. Fortune smiled on me as the weather, while cold, was cooperative for a quick trip up to [...]

Cold as Ice

2021-02-17T05:55:47-06:00February 17th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s another cold morning across most of North America again Wednesday, with sub-freezing temperatures once again stretching south to the US Gulf Coast. But here’s the funny thing, as cold as it is this morning, it feels warm [...]

Happy New Year, Again

2021-02-12T06:08:34-06:00February 12th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Friday morning is the start of Lunar New Year, a holiday observed by the world’s largest buyer of commodities – China. A few minutes of research tells me that by the Chinese calendar, 2021 is a Year of [...]

Scattered Thoughts

2021-02-11T05:54:59-06:00February 11th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Thursday is one of those mornings when no clear market thoughts come to my head. The dust has settled from the day before, and now we wait for the next sunrise. Then the one after that, then the [...]

A Mixed Midweek Morning

2021-02-10T05:51:50-06:00February 10th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: it almost seems as if commodity traders took the night off after what has already been a volatile week. On the green side of the screen we find the usual suspects: Energies were mostly higher with both crude [...]

More of the Same

2021-02-09T05:53:45-06:00February 9th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Not much changed overnight, except for US stock index futures were showing small losses rather than their usual gains. Otherwise, the US dollar index was back under pressure, extending the short-term downtrend I talked about late last week, [...]

Calm Before the Storm

2021-02-05T06:01:58-06:00February 5th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The grain and oilseed sector was mostly higher overnight in generally quiet trade. However, the talk of Thursday afternoon was the coming change in position limits for the various markets, setting the stage for what could be an [...]

The Rest of Winter’s First Day

2021-02-03T06:01:10-06:00February 3rd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: With all the pageantry and science of Groundhog Day now behind us (unless you are caught in an actual Groundhog Day loop), Wednesday morning marks our first step into the next six weeks of winter. Interestingly enough, the [...]

Groundhog Day Eve Morning

2021-02-01T06:04:58-06:00February 1st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The first morning of a new week and fresh month is off and running, and if not for Groundhog Day on Tuesday this piece could easily have been titled “Hi Yo Silver, Away!”. As expected, the Reddit Rebels [...]

A Silver Lining

2021-01-29T05:56:20-06:00January 29th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: With everything going on across the various market sectors, one that could be flying under the radar a bit is the explosive rally seen the last two days in silver. I mentioned Thursday’s move in Afternoon Commentary, and [...]

Where to Begin

2021-01-28T06:15:50-06:00January 28th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: There is a lot going on as we head into Thursday, so much so we can set away the “Throwaway” moniker usually attached to this day of the week. While commodities will garner their fair share of attention [...]

Day Three

2021-01-27T05:58:24-06:00January 27th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The grain and oilseed complex was higher overnight for the third consecutive morning, bringing to mind the Benjamin Franklin Fish Similarity. Recall Mr. Franklin is credited for saying, “Guests, like fish, start to stink after three days.” When [...]

Snow Day

2021-01-25T05:49:49-06:00January 25th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at Monday morning’s weather map shows a storm band stretching nearly unbroken from San Diego, California to Nags Head, North Carolina. Much of the US Southern Plains and Midwest is expected to see heavy snow and [...]

Frantic Indeed

2021-01-22T06:06:18-06:00January 22nd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Recall from Throwaway Thursday’s Afternoon Commentary that I was looking for a typical Frantic Friday, particularly since we are heading into another key South American weather weekend. Many markets are headed in the opposite direction of what we [...]

A Fresh Start

2021-01-21T05:53:09-06:00January 21st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look across the pre-dawn market landscape shows a sense of normalcy has returned, allowing for a fresh start in some cases. The US dollar index was back under pressure, now casting doubt on the potential bullish technical [...]

Let’s See What the Day Brings

2021-01-20T06:04:38-06:00January 20th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Regardless of what side of the aisle one sits on here in the United States, we remember the storming of the Capitol that occurred two weeks ago. As we wait for sunrise this Wednesday morning, Inauguration Day of [...]

Another Long Short Week Ahead

2021-01-19T06:03:25-06:00January 19th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Another US holiday shortened trading week is off and running, but rather than a quick 4-day sprint this could be viewed as a 96-hour obstacle course. While it’s possible the US is able to make it to the [...]

Let’s Do It Again

2021-01-14T05:56:22-06:00January 14th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Another overnight session, another Thursday morning, another rally in the grain and oilseed complex. Yes, the US dollar index was down and US stock index futures were up, mostly, just as they are nearly every day at this [...]

Hangover

2021-01-13T06:00:20-06:00January 13th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Some will call it “follow-through” buying in the grain and oilseed market overnight, but given most traders likely got an early start on Whiskey Wednesday following Tuesday’s session, I’m going to say we saw “hangover” activity. In other [...]

Back to “Normal”

2021-01-12T06:07:36-06:00January 12th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Don’t misunderstand the title this morning, the only thing “normal” about this Tuesday morning is market activity. Otherwise, well, to borrow a line from Sgt. Esterhaus from the tv show “Hill Street Blues”, “Let’s be careful out there.” [...]

Endless Possibilities

2021-01-11T06:07:03-06:00January 11th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: CNBC host Becky Quick had the line of the morning as she looked ahead at this coming week, “Endless possibilities of what may unfold.” What we have seen so far overnight into early Monday is the US dollar [...]

If Not For…

2021-01-08T05:03:30-06:00January 8th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: …the events of this week, I would sit here on this winter Friday morning and tell you markets were normal overnight. US stock index futures were higher, the energy complex was in the green, and grains and oilseeds [...]

Fallout

2021-01-07T06:03:09-06:00January 7th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Where the US goes from here is the main topic of discussion Thursday morning is what’s next. While there is a great deal of talk about the invoking the 25th Amendment, global markets have moved forward with most [...]

How Bizarre

2021-01-06T06:07:20-06:00January 6th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: CNBC’s Brian Sullivan was spot on when he said on the network’s Worldwide Exchange program Wednesday morning, “Most bizarre morning for stock futures in a while. Dow up (higher interest rates = good news for banks), Tech down [...]

Georgia On My Mind

2021-01-05T06:00:39-06:00January 5th, 2021|Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s quite possible traders will have this song playing repeatedly over the course of Tuesday session (and if so, most likely the brilliant Ray Charles version) given the Georgia Senate runoff election taking place today. There are two [...]

Holy Buckets!

2021-01-04T05:56:29-06:00January 4th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: That was a message a good friend left me overnight after looking at markets, and he was absolutely correct. March soybeans gained as much as 38.5 cents, March corn jumped 14 cents higher, and March Chicago wheat reached [...]

The End is Near

2020-12-31T06:02:02-06:00December 31st, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s Thursday morning, the start of New Year’s Eve Day, meaning the end of 2020 is drawing near. What better way to go out than a replay of a scenario we have seen countless times since September: The [...]

I had to Laugh

2020-12-30T06:03:26-06:00December 30th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It isn’t often the first thing I do upon firing up the quote screen in the morning is chuckle. But that is exactly what happened early Wednesday when I saw soybeans were down, with the March contract losing [...]

Out of the Box

2020-12-28T05:43:23-06:00December 28th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Late Sunday evening, news came out that US President Trump signed the stimulus and government spending bill, the latter presumably keeping the government open until at least January. This news sparked a rally in US stock index futures [...]

Wash, Rinse, Repeat

2020-12-23T05:42:06-06:00December 23rd, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If you liked what you saw in the grain and oilseed complex Monday and Tuesday, then you’ll enjoy what transpired overnight through early Wednesday morning. Over the course of the session soybeans, corn, and wheat all traded lower, [...]

A Much Quieter Morning

2020-12-22T05:23:21-06:00December 22nd, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick scan of the various market sectors Tuesday morning shows most are much quieter than they were 24 hours ago. Recall Monday’s Commentary when the US dollar index had rallied more than 1.00, taking out both 90.00 [...]

ABC

2020-12-21T05:44:52-06:00December 21st, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: While I don’t know if Monday morning’s markets are as “Easy as 123”, but the abrupt change in direction overnight seems to be based on the ABCs. The US dollar index was up almost a $1, or a [...]

Welcome Back

2020-12-18T05:57:57-06:00December 18th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: When last we talked both silver and soybeans had just extended recent rallies with large spike gains. While soybeans have followed through with another strong overnight session, silver came under pressure from a slightly stronger US dollar index. [...]

Dollar Down Again

2020-12-16T06:08:12-06:00December 16th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As we await Chairman Powell’s statements at the conclusion of the US Federal Reserve’s 2-day meeting Wednesday, we can watch the US dollar index continue to go down. Recall a couple weeks ago when the intrigue was the [...]

After College

2020-12-15T06:04:01-06:00December 15th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The Electoral College system used here in the United States took another step in finalizing last month’s Presidential Election Monday, with Mr. Biden receiving 306 electoral votes to Mr. Trump’s 232, with 270 needed to claim victory as [...]

“Good Night Beijing…”

2020-12-14T06:04:03-06:00December 14th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A good friend sent me this message as I was researching overnight markets for Monday’s Morning Commentary, and I thought it was spot-on. That same friend lives in South Dakota and he added it felt like (-7°) Fahrenheit [...]

Fried(ay) Red Markets

2020-12-11T05:47:23-06:00December 11th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Yes, I know the name of the book/movie/recipe is “Fried Green Tomatoes”, but it’s Friday morning and I thought it was a catchy title with most markets in the red. The first that jumped out at me when [...]

A Different Type of Rubber Band

2020-12-10T05:52:39-06:00December 10th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The commodity sector was mostly in the green again early Thursday morning with outside markets showing familiar patterns. The US dollar index was lower, looking to slide back below 91.00. Meanwhile the euro and Canadian dollar were in [...]

Another Quiet Morning

2020-12-09T06:02:10-06:00December 9th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Session Summary: Markets in general were relatively quiet overnight through early Wednesday morning with the largest change, as of this writing, a 1.3% loss by March silver. Feb gold was down about $12 (0.6%) while March copper notched a 0.6% [...]

Another Tequila Sunrise

2020-12-08T06:06:22-06:00December 8th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Let’s see, according to the market calendar we have Mojito Monday’s, Whiskey Wednesday’s, Thirsty Thursday’s, and Fireball Friday’s. This being a Tuesday, a day when many folks want to talk Turnarounds, let’s follow the advice of the great [...]

A Different Way to Start the Day

2020-12-07T06:06:06-06:00December 7th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look across the market landscape early Monday morning shows us a slightly different view than what we’ve grown accustomed to. For starters the US dollar index is in the green, poking its head back above 91.00 to [...]

Almost the Weekend

2020-12-04T05:49:58-06:00December 4th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Yes, it is Friday morning again, one more day until the first weekend of winter. Overnight markets were generally the same as they have been for days now with the US dollar index lower, US stock index futures [...]

The Last Day of Fall

2020-11-30T06:03:36-06:00November 30th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As the full moon, also called the “Beaver Moon” sets Monday morning, we will embark on the last day of meteorological fall. Once we turn the page to December, the season changes to winter. This is often accompanied [...]

Getting Ready for Turkey

2020-11-25T05:44:55-06:00November 25th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: 24 hours from now, those of us in the United States will be settling in for a day of family, feasting, and football as we celebrate Thanksgiving Day. Wednesday is for preparation, a day when a lot of [...]

A Dose of Different

2020-11-24T06:14:08-06:00November 24th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Tuesday morning was a bit different than what we saw 24 hours ago, most notably in the grain and oilseed complex. More on that later. In other news, the US dollar index once again failed to build on [...]

Like So Many Before

2020-11-23T06:08:02-06:00November 23rd, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Let’s get the US Thanksgiving week rolling like so many before with the US dollar under pressure while stock index futures post a solid overnight rally Sunday into Monday morning. The commodity sector was mostly higher, led by [...]

Red Numbers

2020-11-19T06:01:19-06:00November 19th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick scan of the commodity sector early Thursday morning shows us nothing but red numbers, with even the usually contrarian natural gas market sitting in the red. Some of the pressure could be tied to a stronger [...]

More of the Same

2020-11-18T05:35:12-06:00November 18th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If you liked what you saw Monday and Tuesday of this week, you should enjoy what markets were doing early Wednesday morning. The US dollar index was down, again, sparking a rally in energies, softs, and the grain [...]

Should Be an Interesting Week

2020-11-16T06:00:43-06:00November 16th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: US stock index futures jumped at the open Sunday evening, setting the stage for what is expected to be another interesting week for markets. When I fired up my computer early Monday morning I was expecting to see [...]

It’s Your Lucky Day

2020-11-13T06:06:08-06:00November 13th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary:  That’s right, another Friday the 13th has rolled around, and I’m sure there will be plenty of references to Jason Voorhees. A look at markets shows us the grain and oilseed complex was scary overnight, almost as if [...]

Still Sleeping

2020-11-12T05:53:53-06:00November 12th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary:  While I haven’t dug into the overnight trading ranges of all the markets yet, the eyeball test as I ran the traps Thursday morning shows me a number of sectors seem to have taken the night off after [...]

Another Green Breakfast

2020-11-11T06:14:55-06:00November 11th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary:  The commodity sector was in the green to start another day, with the leader the energy complex once again. Here we see crude oil pushing a 4% rally with distillates up 3.5% and RBOB gasoline racing 3.2% higher. [...]

Mixed Monday Morning

2020-11-09T05:58:27-06:00November 9th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary:  US stock index futures made a big move to start the week with Nasdaq (big tech) leading the way with a 1.9% gain overnight. This isn’t surprising, given the projected winner of the 2020 US Presidential Election Mr. [...]

Taking a Breather

2020-11-06T05:50:51-06:00November 6th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary:  Many markets took a breather overnight, and though some still showed gains, trade volume was down for the most part. The US dollar index was under pressure once again, helping metals extend recent explosive rallies. Gold was up [...]

Markets Running Free

2020-11-05T05:46:27-06:00November 5th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I shared a tweet last night, originally posted by CNBC’s Scott Wapner, that read, “Hearing from some big investors that we could be on the cusp of a great scenario for stocks: A Biden presidency, a Republican Senate…”. [...]

The Sun Will Rise

2020-11-04T05:48:57-06:00November 4th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Checking the Associated Press US Presidential Election tracker first thing Wednesday morning, roughly 50% of Americans are unhappy while the other 50% are quite pleased with themselves. As it stands, tentatively, with many states not officially declared in [...]

Let the Race Begin

2020-11-03T05:56:22-06:00November 3rd, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Commodities raced higher overnight through early Tuesday morning; some on follow-through strength from Monday (e.g. the wheat complex, metals), some on a weaker US dollar (energies), and some on typical Turnaround Tuesday activity (corn, soybeans, cotton). We are [...]

The Power of Charts Compels Us!

2020-11-02T05:50:53-06:00November 2nd, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If you are reading (or listening to) this Morning Commentary early Monday then you made it through this weekend’s spooky trifecta of Halloween, with a full moon (a blue moon for October), that led into turning the clocks [...]

Trick or Treat?

2020-10-30T06:14:04-05:00October 30th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Notice I added a question mark to the title, for heading into Friday’s session there is a great deal of uncertainty. Will we be treated by a return of investment buying across the scope of markets? Will we [...]

Another Interesting Day on Tap

2020-10-29T06:02:22-05:00October 29th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Going home Wednesday evening, following the massive meltdown by global stock markets, one could imagine a scenario where these same markets would rally overnight into early Thursday morning. While Asian markets were mostly lower (the classic Chicken and [...]

redruM on a Whiskey Wednesday

2020-10-28T05:51:47-05:00October 28th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The commodity sector was bleeding as if it were a victim in a Halloween horror movie. Grains and oilseed markets were lower, with double digit losses posted in the wheat complex and soybeans. Cotton was down, but only [...]

Too Quiet Tuesday Morning

2020-10-27T05:53:48-05:00October 27th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Except for corn, I’m not used to seeing markets this quiet overnight into a Tuesday morning, making it even more ironic one of the biggest movers this time around is indeed corn. The US dollar was quietly lower, [...]

Hasenpfeffer

2020-10-23T05:57:19-05:00October 23rd, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Those of you of a certain age will recall a certain Bugs Bunny cartoon with Yosemite Sam as a royal cook. One day the disgruntled king looks at his meal and says, “Take it away. Every day the [...]

Out of the Ordinary

2020-10-22T05:54:31-05:00October 22nd, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: My morning ritual starts with making a cup of coffee, naturally, before turning on the lights to the basement office and firing up the quote screen. After that comes a quick succession of running the traps of the [...]

Another Verse

2020-10-21T05:49:26-05:00October 21st, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Wednesday morning shows us markets are singing the same song as before, just a different verse. The US dollar index is under pressure, again, helping to push the euro and most commodity markets higher. Of the latter, the [...]

Same as it Almost Always Is

2020-10-20T05:54:10-05:00October 20th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Morning markets have become routine, with the US dollar index starting the day lower, US stock index futures higher, and solid gains posted in the grain and oilseed complex. Tuesday is no different, with the commodity leader this [...]

Another Green Monday Morning

2020-10-19T06:05:05-05:00October 19th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of markets Monday morning once again proved the old saying, “The more things change, the more things stay the same.” After all of last week’s volatility, across the board, this week is starting off with [...]

Friday is Trending

2020-10-16T06:02:33-05:00October 16th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As I was making my first round of coffee Friday morning, I didn’t even have to check the quote screens to know how markets had traded overnight. It’s all about trends, and most markets have clearly defined their [...]

The Ides of October are Upon Us

2020-10-15T05:59:58-05:00October 15th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Today is October 15, the Ides of October. We’ve reached the midpoint of autumn 2020 (basically) meaning Old Mad Winter will soon be breathing his icy breath down our necks, and the next US election is only 19 [...]

A Quiet Morning, Mostly

2020-10-14T06:09:09-05:00October 14th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We’ve reached Wheat Wednesday, Hump Day to certain tv camels, and most markets are acting like they are exhausted. This is understandable given how many have already posted big moves in both directions, and again it is only [...]

Catch the Rebound

2020-10-13T05:49:23-05:00October 13th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: One thing about a day like Monday, when a number of commodity sectors were under pressure, is that Tuesday tends to see a rebound. Such was the case in both energies and grains and oilseeds, with both sectors [...]

The Cotton Club

2020-10-12T06:04:43-05:00October 12th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Cotton was the leader overnight as the Dec issue raced more than 1.50 (cents) higher on solid trade volume. Though most of the buying came from the noncommercial side, as this continues to add to their net-long futures [...]

Same Song, Different Verse

2020-10-08T05:53:20-05:00October 8th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Thursday morning markets look pretty much like every other morning over the last week, with commodities in general higher. US stock index futures were also higher, again, following global markets that were mostly higher overnight through early Thursday [...]

Dance the Night Away

2020-10-07T06:11:19-05:00October 7th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at early morning markets show most danced the night away once again, continuing the party we’ve seen for much of the last week. The US dollar index still looks to be hungover from its month end [...]

Here We Go Again

2020-10-06T06:02:52-05:00October 6th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Two markets jumped out at me during my first check of the day: Crude oil and soybeans, with both moving on what looks to be weather related commercial buying. As I was scanning Twitter Monday evening, I saw [...]

And Here We Go…

2020-10-05T05:56:03-05:00October 5th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We are off and running for another week with the overnight session generally quiet. The big movers through early Monday morning are the energy complex, where crude oil and RBOB gasoline both jumped 4% on renewed commercial buying, [...]

The Chicago Reds

2020-10-02T06:05:08-05:00October 2nd, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Those of you watching the MLB Playoffs know the Cincinnati baseball 9, also known as the Reds, didn’t fare so well the last couple days, scoring zero runs over the course of two games in losing the best [...]

The Song Remains the Same

2020-10-01T06:04:36-05:00October 1st, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Yes, we’ve turned the calendar page to a new month, but the song of the markets remains the same with corn and soybeans moving higher, metals showing an early gain, and the energy complex is under light pressure. [...]

Another End Is Upon Us

2020-09-30T06:02:43-05:00September 30th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I have no idea where the month of September disappeared to, but at the end of Wednesday it will be gone. Of course, September 30 means the grain and oilseed complex has a USDA Quarterly Stocks report to [...]

Turn Down Tuesday

2020-09-29T05:54:30-05:00September 29th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Commodities, for the most part, were under pressure early Tuesday morning with the exception being metals. Here we see copper down a couple cents while Dec silver posts another solid rally of almost 1.5% and gold was up [...]

Monday, Monday

2020-09-28T06:03:53-05:00September 28th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Commodities in general have a case of the Monday blahs with most showing quiet losses to start the day. This despite a slightly weaker US dollar and stronger euro coming out of the weekend. Meanwhile, US stock index [...]

The Cycle Continues

2020-09-25T05:58:46-05:00September 25th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The first thing that jumped out at me when I ran the market traps Friday morning was the renewed strength of the US dollar overnight with the spot greenback climbing back to within sight of Thursday’s high of [...]

While We Were Sleeping

2020-09-24T06:02:55-05:00September 24th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: While we were sleeping, the US dollar continued to strengthen and other key currencies weakened. Both the euro and Canadian dollar were in the red while the Brazilian real showed a small gain. While we were sleeping, global [...]

Night Moves

2020-09-23T05:59:26-05:00September 23rd, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If Wednesday’s session turns out anything like what we saw overnight, it’s going to be another interesting day. Silver was down about 80 cents, or 3.2% to start the day, but is still 50 cents off its overnight [...]

Recovery Mode

2020-09-22T05:58:25-05:00September 22nd, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The markets in general again seem to be doing what is expected of them, following up Monday’s meltdown with a bit of a recovery rally through early Tuesday morning. The only sector we aren’t seeing this happen, as [...]

Red Screen in the Morning

2020-09-21T06:11:45-05:00September 21st, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Another week is upon us, and this one has a different look to it initially than those that have immediately come before. The first thing one will notice is the commodity sector, almost across the board, is in [...]

Checking My List

2020-09-17T06:00:35-05:00September 17th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Thursday morning’s markets are about as one would expect following an explosive day like Wednesday. The US dollar index is quietly lower with the euro, Canadian dollar, and Brazilian real also in the red to start the day. [...]

Whiplash Wednesday Morning

2020-09-16T05:56:29-05:00September 16th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: My last look at markets Tuesday night showed me soybeans were down about 6 cents with corn off about 3 cents. When I checked things again first things Wednesday morning, soybeans were 3 cents higher while corn was [...]

Another Day Ending in “Y”…

2020-09-15T06:10:23-05:00September 15th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: …Means another overnight session that saw soybeans rally. The soybean market continues to be stoked by strong noncommercial buying, enough to hold contracts near session highs through early Tuesday morning. Some of the support is tied to the [...]

Soybeans’ Strong Statement

2020-09-11T06:02:08-05:00September 11th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I actually did a doubletake when I fired up my quote screen this morning and the first thing I saw was a double-digit rally in soybeans. Thursday’s lethargic trade now looks to be a one-off situation, with buyers [...]

Role Reversal

2020-09-10T05:56:36-05:00September 10th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: There were some interesting markets early Thursday, with corn and soybeans reversing roles as the former posted a small gain while the latter was quietly lower. Meanwhile, the wheat complex was in the green, likely supported by the [...]

If Only

2020-09-09T06:11:31-05:00September 9th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As I look at the attached map of the previous 24-hour rain accumulation I can’t help but wonder what the situation would be, particularly in corn, if only this rain system had arrived 30 to 45 days earlier. [...]

August Jobs and the Wider River

2020-09-04T06:10:15-05:00September 4th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s Friday again, another week having flown by and here in the U.S. a 3-day holiday weekend ahead. But before we get there, the much-ballyhooed monthly nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate numbers will be released. For those of [...]

Still the Same

2020-09-03T05:55:47-05:00September 3rd, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of the various market sectors Thursday morning shows overnight results similar to 24 hours ago. The US dollar index and Brazilian real were stronger while the euro and Canadian dollar were weaker. This put more [...]

An Interesting Day Ahead

2020-09-02T05:49:43-05:00September 2nd, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Yes, markets moved overnight but most of the activity was outside the grain and oilseed complex. The U.S. dollar index was continuing to show strength as the new month gets under way, with the euro and Brazilian real [...]

It Didn’t Rain

2020-08-31T06:05:09-05:00August 31st, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As I was updating rain accumulation maps to the website over the weekend, it became increasingly clear much of the U.S. Midwest growing area had missed out, including the driest area of western Iowa. Having watched markets for [...]

Dollar Down

2020-08-28T06:06:36-05:00August 28th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: One of the first things I noticed when I ran my market traps this morning was a sharp sell-off by the U.S. dollar. My hunch is this is a continued reaction to U.S. Fed Chairman Powell’s speech from [...]

A Weather Triple Whammy

2020-08-24T06:10:52-05:00August 24th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The grain and oilseed complex was glowing bright green early Monday morning, mostly, with support tied to the Weather Triple Whammy that continues to play out across key growing areas. This started with the Derecho (straight-line windstorm) that [...]

A Breakfast Scramble

2020-08-21T05:56:23-05:00August 21st, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look across the commodity sector early Friday morning shows a solid mix of red and green. Grain and oilseeds were higher while the energy complex was lower across the board. Softs were mixed with cotton lower and [...]

“What Did He Say Now?”

2020-08-20T06:01:26-05:00August 20th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The last thing I do at night and the first I do in the morning (even before coffee, so you know I’m serious) is a quick check of markets. My initial thought today, after seeing soybeans were 10 [...]

Waking Up to a Wheat Wednesday

2020-08-19T06:01:34-05:00August 19th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Most markets were content to hold the line from Tuesday’s close, not doing much overnight through early Wednesday morning. Not wheat, though, not on the one day of the week when folks tend to pay more attention, even [...]

A Tuesday Respite

2020-08-18T05:57:20-05:00August 18th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: Given the type of rallies posted by the grain and oilseed sector recently, it’s not overly surprising market’s eased back a bit overnight through early Tuesday morning. Running straight uphill is tough, and almost everyone has to take [...]

Sour and Soar

2020-08-17T06:14:26-05:00August 17th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: This past Saturday was another good example of the difference changing a single letter in a word can make in describing a situation. As I read recaps of what was supposed to be renewed trade talks this past [...]

TSBF

2020-08-14T06:13:11-05:00August 14th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Afternoon Summary: As I mentioned in yesterday's Afternoon Commentary, Thursday Should’ve Been Friday (TSBF) as it was unlikely the grain and oilseed complex would be unable to extend the day’s sharp rally overnight through actual Friday morning. Sure enough, the [...]

In Other News

2020-08-12T05:51:26-05:00August 12th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: With ag markets mostly slumbering ahead of USDA’s monthly round of Supply and Demand reports, set for release at noon (ET), and the livestock complex closed until the opening bell rings Wednesday morning, the focus is on outside [...]

Derecho Do

2020-08-11T06:08:05-05:00August 11th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The pictures of flattened corn and soybean fields and collapsed bins across Iowa (possibly western Illinois?) were sickening, reminding me of completely different but yet the same type of damage associated with the Missouri River floods of 2019. [...]

Mostly Lower Market Morning

2020-08-07T05:55:18-05:00August 7th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A scan of the different market sectors Friday morning finds most of them under pressure. Some of this could be due to the stronger U.S. dollar index, while the euro moves lower, all while global stock markets are [...]

A Quiet Morning

2020-08-06T05:48:13-05:00August 6th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Most markets were quiet early Thursday morning, not overly surprising given the activity seen to start the week. The stars of the show continue to be silver and gold with the latter rocketing to a new high beyond [...]

Tis the Season

2020-08-04T06:12:29-05:00August 4th, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Monday afternoon saw the release of StoneX (previously FCStone) customer survey for US corn and soybean average yields, with the numbers staggeringly high at 182.4 bpa and 54.2 bpa respectively. As if on cue, the social media site [...]

Closing Out the Month

2020-07-31T06:06:14-05:00July 31st, 2020|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As hard as it is to believe, Friday will bring to a close the month of July. Does anyone else feel like the U.S. July 4 Holiday was just last weekend? As we head into the end of [...]

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