Getting Closer

2023-09-28T05:41:09-05:00September 28th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As far as the grain and oilseed sector is concerned we are getting closer to anything meaningful being said about the markets. With that in mind, Thursday will likely be filled with talk of other markets. To begin [...]

A Lot of Green

2023-09-27T06:10:17-05:00September 27th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: There is a lot of green showing across the commodity complex early Wednesday, a fact made more interesting by the US dollar index continuing to hold firm. The greenback extended this month’s rally to a high of 106.34 [...]

Welcome to the Fed

2023-09-19T06:11:58-05:00September 19th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Tuesday will see the beginning of the 2-day US Federal Open Market Committee meeting, culminating with Wednesday’s announcement on the US Fed fund rate. The discussion continues to ping-pong back and forth between another 25 basis-point rate hike [...]

A Broken Record

2023-09-18T05:58:37-05:00September 18th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Looking back through my recent titles for Morning Commentary, I notice I’m starting to sound like a broken record[i]. Every morning it is the same thing, a discussion of how quiet markets were overnight and how low trade [...]

Silent Night

2023-09-15T05:50:26-05:00September 15th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: After I typed out the title for Friday’s Morning Commentary – Silent Night – I realized it would be the second consecutive day of referring to a classic holiday song following Thursday’s Happy Xmas (War is Over) by [...]

Cue John Lennon

2023-09-14T08:04:07-05:00September 14th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If the wheat sector supposedly rallied Wednesday because of “a new exchange of hostilities[i] in the Russo-Ukraine war…”, then why was wheat lower overnight through early Thursday morning? Is it as John Lennon sang about back in the [...]

The Morning After

2023-09-13T06:02:25-05:00September 13th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Tuesday had all the hubbub and hoo-hah expected, particularly in the grain and oilseed sector, but yet we still made it to the morning after. Overnight trade volume was moderate at best, particularly in corn, where some overnight [...]

Hold My Beer

2023-09-08T06:06:22-05:00September 8th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Yesterday at this time I talked about how quiet the commodity complex had been overnight. Those same markets must’ve taken in at as a challenge, saying “Hold my beer” before registering even less trade through early Friday morning. [...]

Waiting on B3

2023-09-07T06:09:59-05:00September 7th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The commodity complex in general was lower overnight through early Thursday morning with the only sector glowing green US Treasuries. Most sectors were mixed, like energies where natural gas and RBOB gasoline were showing small gains while distillates [...]

First of Fall

2023-09-01T06:08:19-05:00September 1st, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Welcome to September 1, the first day of meteorological fall. Almost as if on cue, the US dollar index, aka the greenback, immediately turned red. Not by much, mind you, as it weakened by only 0.13 overnight and [...]

The Last Day

2023-08-31T06:05:10-05:00August 31st, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Somehow it is the last day of August, which is also the last day of meteorological summer, the last day of the first quarter for wheat’s 2023-2024 marketing year[i], and the last day of the 2022-2023 marketing year [...]

Quiet Again

2023-08-29T05:18:56-05:00August 29th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Most markets posted a quiet overnight session highlighted by a little Turnaround activity through early Tuesday morning. Notable sectors were US stock index futures where Monday’s higher close was followed by red numbers pre-dawn, and similar activity in [...]

A Mixed Monday

2023-08-28T05:54:19-05:00August 28th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It was a quiet overnight session, generally speaking, with natural gas the outlier through early Monday morning. The Widow Maker gained as much as 11.6 cents (4.6%) early before settling into a 3% gain as of this writing. [...]

More of the Same

2023-08-25T05:49:38-05:00August 25th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at the quote screen early Friday morning shows us markets are similar to what we’ve seen pre-dawn many times this summer. The US dollar index was showing continued strength while the commodity complex was mostly higher. [...]

The Heat is On

2023-08-21T06:15:34-05:00August 21st, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Monday’s weather forecast shows much of the US Plains and Midwest are expected to stay hot and dry, with an emphasis on the word “Hot”. Temperatures soared over the weekend with no relief in sight through the end [...]

Looking Ahead

2023-08-11T07:01:03-05:00August 11th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Well, we’ve reached Friday, another USDA report day for all of us in agriculture. As you know, unlike the majority of the industry I don’t get excited about these things. I’ve long argued USDA, or any branch of [...]

Today’s Menu

2023-08-10T06:14:39-05:00August 10th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We’ve reached the point in the week when government numbers move front and center into the spotlight. As you can guess, this isn’t my cup of tea, but perhaps something stronger at the end of the week will [...]

A Quieter Night

2023-08-03T05:46:29-05:00August 3rd, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It was a much quieter night across the commodity complex, though Thursday morning finds the situation similar to Wednesday afternoon. Recall from yesterday’s Afternoon Commentary when there wasn’t a single sector in the green. A look at Thursday [...]

Mothers’ Day

2023-07-31T06:10:38-05:00July 31st, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If the title of this morning’s piece has you wondering if I have time traveled back almost 3 months, the answer is no. Instead, I’m referring to how markets were driven overnight through early Monday morning by a [...]

And Now, the Fed

2023-07-26T06:01:46-05:00July 26th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: According to financial television gurus, global investors are gnashing their collective teeth in anticipation of what the US Federal Open Market Committee announces Wednesday afternoon regarding interest rates. Of course, this comes after the Dow Jones Industrial Average [...]

A Mixed Morning

2023-07-14T06:02:57-05:00July 14th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The commodity complex was mixed pre-dawn with grains, energies, and softs mostly in the green while US stock index futures, US Treasuries, and metals were mostly in the red. The market tying them all together – the US [...]

The Morning After

2023-06-29T05:54:24-05:00June 29th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If nothing else, we can say the grain and oilseed sector survived Wednesday’s selling onslaught with markets quietly higher the morning after. Where these same markets close this afternoon remains anyone’s guess, and I’m sure the airwaves will [...]

A Quiet Night

2023-06-28T06:04:14-05:00June 28th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A check of the various market sectors shows it was a quiet night through early Wednesday morning, the first one this week. I didn’t see many market-moving headlines, with most of the talk having to do with our [...]

Red Dawn

2023-06-22T06:05:26-05:00June 22nd, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Thursday morning’s Barchart Futures Market Heat Map is showing us something we haven’t seen for a while, with every sector in the commodity complex a shade of red pre-dawn. The three strongest sectors are currencies, indices, and financials [...]

Crushing It

2023-06-21T06:07:02-05:00June 21st, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As I looked at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map Wednesday morning, two things jumped out at me. Soybean meal was showing the strongest gain with the July issue up 3% while soybean oil was the weakest with [...]

More of the Same

2023-06-08T05:57:28-05:00June 8th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The commodity complex in general Thursday morning looked similar to how we left if Wednesday afternoon, with one difference being the US dollar index was under pressure this time around. There is getting to be more chatter about [...]

A Busy Weekend

2023-06-05T06:09:46-05:00June 5th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: There was a lot going on this past weekend, the first weekend of summer which makes the generally subdued commodity complex that much more interesting. I talked about the latest OPEC+ announcement in Sunday night’s Quick Take, and [...]

Turn the Page

2023-06-01T06:04:08-05:00June 1st, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It seems all it took to bring buyers back to the commodity complex was a turn of the calendar page from May to June. Of course this also means we’ve moved from meteorological spring to meteorological summer, and [...]

Of Course

2023-05-26T05:34:26-05:00May 26th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: To the surprise of nobody, the financial media chatter early Friday morning is that the two sides are “closer to an agreement” on the US debt-ceiling debate with a 3-day holiday weekend looming. Of course, we were in [...]

Monday Greens

2023-05-15T06:04:36-05:00May 15th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We are now into the second-half of the last month of spring, already feeling the warmth of summer shining on our faces. For the most part, at least across North America. It has become cliché, but one has [...]

A Lot of Red

2023-05-09T05:53:45-05:00May 9th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map early Tuesday shows most sectors and individual markets to be in colors other than green. Only financials (US Treasury futures) were showing a cumulative gain, a fact made more [...]

The Fed Awaits

2023-05-03T06:12:45-05:00May 3rd, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Markets are waiting to see what the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, the Fed) does with interest rates this afternoon, at least according to the talking heads of financial media. The reality is most who actually listen [...]

A Quiet Place

2023-04-25T06:12:02-05:00April 25th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Overnight trade was a quiet place through early Tuesday morning, with seemingly not a creature stirring, not even a mouse. This seems odd to me, not only because a number of markets made large moves Monday but because [...]

Not as Manic

2023-04-24T05:38:41-05:00April 24th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Markets in general were relatively quiet coming out of a late spring weekend. I’ll talk about some of the implications for the grain and oilseed complex, with the key being a weekend freeze ahead of another rain event. [...]

Weather Markets

2023-04-17T05:59:54-05:00April 17th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Here we are, the first trading day of the second half of spring, and weather has moved into the spotlight. This past weekend saw winter-like conditions across much of the US Plains and Midwest, with sub-freezing temperatures seen [...]

 Dollar Dazed

2023-04-14T06:09:39-05:00April 14th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Heading home Thursday evening, I made a note to myself to check on the US dollar index overnight. Yesterday saw the greenback get within sight of its February low of 100.82, hitting a mark of 100.85, and given [...]

A Lot of Red

2023-04-05T06:06:21-05:00April 5th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map early Wednesday morning shows a lot of red. The only two commodity sectors showing cumulative gains were softs and metals, with the latter being the more significant given all [...]

No Big Deal

2023-03-29T06:03:18-05:00March 29th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The overnight session turned out to be no big deal, for the most part, with a number of markets taking a pause before the next explosive move. The US dollar index was quiet as it posted a 0.35 [...]

Big Week Ahead

2023-03-27T06:02:06-05:00March 27th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: So far this month we have seen the beginning of meteorological spring (March 1) and the spring equinox (March 20). Economic data continued to roll in more bullish than expected, mostly on the employment front, while news of [...]

Still the Same

2023-03-23T06:04:09-05:00March 23rd, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As I checked on the various market sectors early Thursday morning, I didn’t see much change in direction from Wednesday afternoon. The US dollar index was under pressure, falling as much as 0.53 overnight and extending the short-term [...]

Dear Friends

2023-03-21T05:49:04-05:00March 21st, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Markets were generally quiet overnight, maybe out of respect for the meeting of self-proclaimed “dear friends” in Moscow. That was the main takeaway from China’s President Xi and Russia’s Putin, affirmation of their countries being “friendly neighbors” and [...]

Except For

2023-03-17T05:50:56-05:00March 17th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As legendary newsman Kent Brockman of The Simpsons fame would say, “Top of the morning to ‘ye on this gray drizzly afternoon when everyone is a little bit Irish, except for…”. I’ll paraphrase a bit here, to bring [...]

Turn to Stone

2023-03-14T05:53:41-05:00March 14th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Welcome to another Turnaround Tuesday, with this week’s edition expected to show us which markets actually turn, even if for a day, and which ones sink like a stone. The US dollar index was showing a small gain [...]

A Lot of Red

2023-03-10T06:02:56-06:00March 10th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick look at Friday morning’s Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows a lot of red. The only sector in the green is financials, meaning US Treasury futures, as traders presumably await the February jobs data set for [...]

Recovery Mode

2023-03-09T05:50:12-06:00March 9th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The commodity complex was mostly in the green early Thursday following two days of solid selloffs. Let’s start with the US dollar index as the greenback is in the red pre-dawn. From a technical point of view the [...]

Silent Night

2023-03-07T07:12:35-06:00March 7th, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I wasn’t necessarily surprised by how quiet markets were overnight given how manic Monday turned out to be. Nearly every market sector showed me the same thing Tuesday morning: Contracts posting small changes on low trade volume. What’s [...]

All’s Quiet

2023-03-03T06:10:42-06:00March 3rd, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at the market landscape early Friday morning shows me all’s quiet on the commodity front. Well, maybe not all, as the metals sector posted a decent rally overnight. Here we see May silver leading the way [...]

Empty Traps

2023-03-02T05:52:04-06:00March 2nd, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Running the traps early Thursday morning, and I largely came up empty. Sure, all the markets moved overnight but nothing jumped out at me as particularly newsworthy. The US dollar index was stronger as it continues to chop [...]

Colour My World

2023-02-22T05:58:13-06:00February 22nd, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The Barchart Futures Market Heat Map is colourful early Wednesday morning, ranging from yesterday’s dark green livestock sector (these markets don’t trade overnight but still register on the map) to a bright red energies sector. In between we [...]

The World Stage

2023-02-21T06:03:11-06:00February 21st, 2023|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We are reminded again Tuesday morning that markets are not localized, but global. We had a hunch soybeans and soybean meal would react to reports of Saturday morning frost across parts of Argentina, and the markets moved overnight. [...]

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