Quietly Red

2022-11-21T05:49:33-06:00November 21st, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As we get rolling on this holiday-shortened week the US dollar index is showing some short-term strength. The greenback confirmed a short-term uptrend overnight as it hit a new 4-day high above 107.24. As of the writing the [...]

Soft or Hard

2022-11-18T06:11:15-06:00November 18th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: There was a lot of chatter overnight that could come into play in markets over the course of time. The piece of news I found most interesting talked of how the US Treasury yield curve was now more [...]

Dollar Down

2022-11-15T06:12:17-06:00November 15th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: There are mornings when one market jumps out at you, and this morning that market is the US dollar index. As always, I started the process of running the traps of the various market sectors with global currencies, [...]

Sleeping it Off

2022-11-09T06:00:16-06:00November 9th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Not a market was stirring overnight through early Wednesday morning, not even natural gas. A look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map shows a lot of red, but a closer inspection shows most sectors and markets posting [...]

Opposite Day

2022-11-04T05:53:25-05:00November 4th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s always interesting the difference 24 hours can make when it comes to markets. Recall yesterday in this space I talked about how every market sector that traded overnight was in the red, due in part to a [...]

Seeing Red

2022-11-03T06:03:31-05:00November 3rd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A close look at the Barchart Futures Market Heat Map early Thursday and three markets stand out for showing green: The US dollar index, feeder cattle, and orange juice. However, if we consider feeders and orange juice don’t [...]

More Fun Ahead

2022-10-27T06:13:30-05:00October 27th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Thursday morning shows us a mixed market picture, not necessarily with rallies and selloffs for we know there is almost always some of both, but rather markets following Wednesday’s path while others reversed course. The US dollar index [...]

A Lot of Red

2022-10-24T06:21:20-05:00October 24th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I can’t go quite as far as calling early Monday a mixed morning, with most sectors in the commodity complex sitting in the red. Many of the outliers are in softs where cotton is fractionally higher while coffee [...]

More of the Same

2022-10-11T06:12:43-05:00October 11th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of the headlines Tuesday morning shows us not much changed overnight as Russia continues to rain down missiles on civilians in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Bank of England has “intervened in bond markets” for the second [...]

A Busy Weekend

2022-10-10T06:03:45-05:00October 10th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: There was a lot going on this weekend, with most of the news coming from Ukraine. Going back to last week there were reports (rumors?) of Russian trains taking nuclear weapons to the front, chatter the markets largely [...]

All Eyes on Vienna

2022-10-05T06:20:46-05:00October 5th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Financial television was dominated by two stories early Wednesday morning, one important and one infuriatingly trivial. However, both are perfect reflections of the times we live in and share a common connection to US mid-term elections. The important [...]

Green Day

2022-10-04T05:52:07-05:00October 4th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Though it is still pre-dawn for most of us, with sunrise seasonally getting later every day, markets aren’t showing much Turnaround tendency early Tuesday. The outlier is the one you would guess, with natural gas showing a small [...]

The Beginning

2022-10-03T05:49:54-05:00October 3rd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Welcome to a new week, a new month, and a new financial quarter. As markets get rolling we already see some sectors with a changed tone, most notably energies. Both Brent and WTI crude oil are up more [...]

The End

2022-09-30T06:04:16-05:00September 30th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As Jim Morrison once wrote, “This is the end…”, but in this case I’m talking about how Friday is the end of week, month, and financial quarter. And while that should be enough fun for one day, we [...]

Up to Eleven

2022-09-29T05:48:02-05:00September 29th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A classic line from the 1984 movie “This Is Spinal Tap” has one of the main characters explaining how the volume on his amplifier goes up to eleven rather than the standard 10. It’s a great scene, and [...]

Feeling a Draft

2022-09-21T06:00:04-05:00September 21st, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The first news I read Wednesday morning was of global markets reacting to the Madman Across the Water (Putin) instituting a draft to provide him more bodies to sacrifice in Ukraine. While this was some of what drove [...]

Financial Times

2022-09-20T06:09:57-05:00September 20th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at markets pre-dawn Tuesday shows us a generally quiet landscape as traders gear up for Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve interest rate hike announcement. The US dollar index is back in the green to start the day [...]

In the Green

2022-09-09T06:04:15-05:00September 9th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It was interesting to see nearly every market taking part in this week’s Green Friday[i]. While most commodities were showing gains of 0.75% to 1.5% pre-dawn, Dr. Copper once again led the way with a rally of more [...]

A Quieter Morning

2022-09-08T06:09:28-05:00September 8th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Most markets were much quieter than they were 24 hours ago, starting with the US dollar index. The greenback stabilized overnight following Wednesday’s wild session that saw it fall more than 1.00 off its new 20-year high. Early [...]

Just One Look

2022-08-30T06:28:25-05:00August 30th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: All it takes is a quick glance at the quote screen early this morning and the phrase comes to mind. In fact, I was asked mid-morning Monday about the possibility of such a thing happening, so entrenched is [...]

T.I.G.F.

2022-08-26T05:58:16-05:00August 26th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We made it to Friday, and beyond that my morning quote screen is showing it to be a T.I.G.F (Turnaround In Grains Friday). But the grain and oilseed sector wasn’t alone as we also saw energies erase some [...]

Fast and Furious

2022-08-24T06:12:17-05:00August 24th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The grain and oilseed complex continued its fast and furious rally overnight through early Wednesday morning with December corn gaining as much as 11.5 cents while November soybeans jumped as much as 19.25 cents. Trade volume was decent, [...]

Green Screens

2022-08-11T06:01:16-05:00August 11th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Markets were much as we left them Wednesday afternoon, with only a couple exceptions. Gold was in the red, slightly, as the heat seems to have been turned down ever so slightly under the China/Taiwan/US situation. It’s possible [...]

Sharply Sideways

2022-08-08T06:03:52-05:00August 8th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Much was expected going into Sunday’s overnight session, but a look at markets pre-dawn Monday shows us a lot of sideways activity. The mood seemed to change as China extended its military drills around Taiwan, literally surrounding its [...]

And Now We Wait

2022-08-03T06:22:56-05:00August 3rd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As I watched CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange program Wednesday morning, it showed US House Speaker Pelosi’s plane taking off from Taiwan. The speaker's next stop, reportedly, is South Korea. Meanwhile, China continues to rattle sabers as loudly as possible, [...]

Groundhog Day

2022-08-02T05:58:46-05:00August 2nd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of the markets Tuesday morning shows me not much has changed from Monday afternoon. Commodities in general are lower, though this time around the US dollar index is showing a small gain. US stock index [...]

One Last Time

2022-07-29T04:50:17-05:00July 29th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s hard to believe this morning starts the last trading day for the month of July. It doesn’t seem that long ago the US was blowing up fireworks to celebrate Independence Day, fireworks imported from China ironically enough. [...]

Back in the Red

2022-07-19T06:09:27-05:00July 19th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The seeds for the overnight selloff through early Tuesday morning were actually planted Monday afternoon. Recall from yesterday’s Afternoon Commentary when I talked about how markets couldn’t hold initial gains, with most markets finishing well off session highs [...]

Not So Fast

2022-07-18T05:54:07-05:00July 18th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of the various market sectors early Monday morning shows a lot of green, with commodities in general higher and US stock index futures building on rallies seen by the indexes themselves last Friday. The big [...]

As Expected

2022-07-12T05:58:54-05:00July 12th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of the traps this morning yielded no surprises, starting with the US dollar index continuing to show strength. The greenback followed Monday’s move to a high of 108.26 by extending the long-term rally to 108.56 [...]

WWW Activity

2022-07-11T06:03:36-05:00July 11th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Usually, I spend the weekend catching up on my reading regarding markets, particularly when traveling. This past weekend found us on the road to Kansas City giving me ample time to scroll through some of what was said [...]

Ch-Ch-Changes

2022-07-07T06:06:57-05:00July 7th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The first headline I saw Thursday morning was from the BBC talking about UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announcing he was set to resign as Conservative Party leader but would continue as Prime Minister until the next leader [...]

A Wet Weekend

2022-07-05T06:42:48-05:00July 5th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Coming out of the US 3-day holiday weekend, markets may look similar to what we saw heading into the break last Friday. At least in the grain and oilseed sector given the generally wet past 72-hours. Additionally, a [...]

More Red Numbers

2022-06-23T05:44:04-05:00June 23rd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The commodity sector was red, generally across the board, with some of the largest selloffs seen in the grain and oilseed complex. I’ll get to the specific markets shortly, but in summary the breakdown occurred on heavy trade [...]

Big Moves

2022-06-21T06:09:49-05:00June 21st, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It was another night of big moves in commodities, with the energy sector in the spotlight once again. Here, distillates took center stage as the spot-month contract rallied as much as 19.4 cents (4.5%) and was still showing [...]

The Day After

2022-06-14T06:12:32-05:00June 14th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Well, markets made it through another Monday, and yes, it was as ugly as many had feared. Following the close, the main talking point was the S&P 500 closing in bearish territory meaning more than 20% below its [...]

The Waiting Game

2022-06-10T06:09:26-05:00June 10th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Yes, it’s another day of waiting to get the latest round of USDA nonsense out of the way so we can get back to trading real fundamentals in the grain and oilseed complex. What am I looking for [...]

Green No More

2022-06-09T06:10:41-05:00June 9th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Recall 24 hours ago how nearly every market in the commodity complex was wearing green, almost as if celebrating another St. Patrick’s Day. A look at the quote screen early Thursday morning shows almost the exact opposite, with [...]

Abby Normal

2022-06-03T06:13:03-05:00June 3rd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The early conversation on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street program Friday morning was of how individual stocks are seeing double-digit percentage changes from day to day. Both hosts, Becky Quick and Brian Sullivan, agreed this is not normal [...]

Another Day

2022-06-02T06:06:55-05:00June 2nd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Maybe we should call this “Turnaround Thursday”. No, that’s a bad idea. Time for another cup of coffee. I’ll be right back. (A slight pause while Paul McCartney’s song “Another Day” plays in the background.) Okay, now I’m [...]

The Stage is Set

2022-05-31T05:54:08-05:00May 31st, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Early markets are interesting Tuesday morning starting with reversals in both the US dollar index and US stock index futures. If you recall from Monday evening’s Quick Takes, the US dollar index was under light pressure. Since then, [...]

A Quiet Morning

2022-05-27T07:14:04-05:00May 27th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: There is a chance we get through Friday with most markets staying relatively quiet. After all, many made big moves Thursday, activity worthy of taking us into the US 3-day holiday weekend. But because of the scheduling we [...]

Still the Same

2022-05-26T06:02:22-05:00May 26th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Was I surprised to see another selloff in the grain and oilseed complex early Thursday morning? Not entirely, no. While continued pressure might not fit with fundamentals, it is in line with the technical picture generally across the [...]

Retail Selling

2022-05-17T05:55:54-05:00May 17th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As the grain and oilseed sector looks ahead at extended weather forecasts, the question continues to build if rains across parts of the US Plains and Midwest could now be viewed as bearish? Additionally, the sector in general [...]

Seeing Red

2022-05-09T06:15:02-05:00May 9th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If the color red makes you feel nauseated, then Monday might be a good day to find something else to do and leave the quote screen turned off. After all, parts of the US Plains and Midwest are [...]

Moving Forward

2022-05-05T06:08:48-05:00May 5th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As I mentioned in Wednesday’s Afternoon Commentary, markets in general shrugged off the announced US interest rate hike of 50-basis points. To its credit, the US Federal Open Market Committee has not played a guessing game with its [...]

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