More of the Same

2022-01-28T06:13:50-06:00January 28th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s as if Thursday’s session never closed, but simply took a break for dinner and celebrating before starting the party up again that has now lasted into Friday morning. The US dollar continues to strengthen, hitting a new [...]

Another Day, Another Dollar

2022-01-27T06:11:48-06:00January 27th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The US dollar is in the spotlight again Thursday morning, with the index adding another 0.45 to Wednesday’s post-Fed Chairman Powell comments spike to 96.54. The US dollar index ($DXY) is now in position to complete a long-term [...]

A Quiet Morning

2022-01-26T05:30:09-06:00January 26th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Most markets were relatively quiet overnight through early Wednesday morning, not a huge surprise given all the activity we’ve seen so far this week. The US dollar index was showing a small gain, up 0.14 and sitting at [...]

A Lot of Red Early

2022-01-21T06:21:53-06:00January 21st, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It would be easier to talk about the few markets that are in the green early Friday than list all those showing losses to start the day. Beginning with currencies, the US dollar index was under light pressure [...]

A Lighter Shade of Red

2022-01-20T06:10:47-06:00January 20th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Running the traps early Thursday morning shows a number of commodity markets were lower, but rather than invoke the “Red markets in the morning...” warning, I’ll point out most showed a lighter shade of red to start the [...]

Not Everything Changes

2022-01-19T06:43:25-06:00January 19th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A number of markets changed directions overnight, erasing at least some of Tuesday’s moves. The US dollar index was slightly weaker, giving back as much as 0.18 of yesterday’s strong 0.57 rally. The flip-side, naturally, is the euro [...]

A Lot of Red, Part 2

2022-01-14T06:05:35-06:00January 14th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Thursday in this space I talked about how most markets were red following overnight selling. This morning, markets are more mixed with energies posting a solid rally and softs are higher while metals and grains and oilseeds are [...]

A Lot of Red

2022-01-13T06:01:49-06:00January 13th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of markets early Thursday morning shows a lot of red, starting with the US dollar index. Following Wednesday’s free fall, the greenback lost another 0.27 overnight as it hit a low of 94.71. On the [...]

A Familiar Cliche

2022-01-11T05:51:41-06:00January 11th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick look at markets this morning and a familiar cliché comes to mind – Turnaround Tuesday. This phrase used to make my late friend Gary Wilhelmi chuckle, due to its absurdity, and it is an idea that [...]

Another Quiet Night

2022-01-10T06:01:58-06:00January 10th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Welcome to a new week everyone. The strange thing was it was a relatively quiet Sunday night through early Monday, an oddity made more peculiar by the global headlines over the weekend. The one that jumped out at [...]

The Weekend is in Sight

2022-01-07T06:14:57-06:00January 7th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We’ve reached Friday morning meaning the weekend is in sight, not only for us humans but the algorithms that do most of the trading these days. Given the wild market activity to start this month, it’s highly likely [...]

Paint it Black

2022-01-06T06:22:55-06:00January 6th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s hard to believe, but it has already been a year. The first thing I did this morning was go back and read my Afternoon Commentary Summary from January 6, 2021 (“Anarchy”), Morning Commentary Summary from January 7 [...]

Short Night, Quiet Morning

2022-01-05T06:00:20-06:00January 5th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s possible traders stayed up late last night watching US college football’s Texas Bowl, and if so the lack of market activity is understandable. The game didn’t end until after 11pm (CT), with the post-game hoopla lasting to [...]

Everything is Green, Almost

2022-01-04T06:08:31-06:00January 4th, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I’ll say this for 2022 so far, traders are bullish. A quick check of the various markets early Tuesday morning shows almost everything to be in the green. Exceptions make a small list that includes copper, cocoa, oats, [...]

Happy New Year!

2022-01-03T05:51:14-06:00January 3rd, 2022|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: 2022 got off to a rollicking start Sunday evening as the commodity complex in general jumped at the open of trade for the new year. The biggest move was made by the oilseed sector as soybeans gained 1.8%, [...]

The Last Day

2021-12-31T04:59:14-06:00December 31st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The last day of the year is always one of reflection, looking back at what was, wondering what might’ve been if one thing had gone differently. In the case of 2021, things happened in the United States I [...]

Red Markets in the Morning

2021-12-30T05:57:21-06:00December 30th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I’ve paraphrased the old sailor saying to “Red markets in the morning” before, though I don’t know that it necessarily holds true that traders need to take warning. Particularly this time of year when trade volume seems to [...]

There’s Always One

2021-12-29T05:45:58-06:00December 29th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of the various commodity sectors early Wednesday shows generally quiet markets. Except for one, there’s always one. And in this case it’s not hard to imagine which one it is. That’s right, natural gas as [...]

Another Green Morning

2021-12-28T06:17:25-06:00December 28th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look across the commodity complex landscape shows a consistent green early Tuesday morning with only an occasional blotch of red to be seen. Metals were mostly higher with gold, silver, palladium, and platinum showing gains while only [...]

Back at It

2021-12-27T05:59:59-06:00December 27th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The last 3-day holiday weekend of 2021 is now behind us meaning all that’s ahead of us is the last 5 trading days of the year. Shortly after Sunday’s open of the various commodity sectors, markets were back [...]

Not So Silent Night

2021-12-22T05:24:08-06:00December 22nd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary:  Compared to what we saw 24 hours ago the commodity complex was raucous overnight through early Wednesday morning. While most of the talk will be of the continued rally in crude oil, with follow-through commercial buying pushing the [...]

A Red Start to the Week

2021-12-20T06:09:46-06:00December 20th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary:  It is early Monday morning on a holiday week, and as we would expect a number of markets are showing light overnight volume. One that saw a lot of activity though was crude oil where the spot-month contract [...]

Back in the Green

2021-12-16T06:08:12-06:00December 16th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary:  Not only has the weather calmed down considerably from Wednesday, but markets are a bit more docile as well. The hubbub over the US Federal Reserve announcements has come and gone meaning financial markets are again focused on [...]

A Red Fed Wednesday

2021-12-15T06:05:45-06:00December 15th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: All eyes and ears will be on US Fed Chairman Powell Wednesday, waiting for this month’s 2-day meeting to conclude, an announcement to be made on tapering and tightening (feel free to sing AC/DC’s “T-N-T” if you’d like), [...]

A Lot of Red

2021-12-14T06:15:54-06:00December 14th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of the various market sectors shows a lot of red early Tuesday morning, though selloffs weren’t large in most cases. Natural gas led the way lower, losing 2%, as weather forecasts remain mild for much [...]

Sideways

2021-12-13T06:06:15-06:00December 13th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A number of years ago there was a movie about two friends touring California’s wine country titled “Sideways”. For some reason this came to mind early Monday as I checked the various commodity sectors, and nearly every market [...]

A Quiet Winter Morn

2021-12-10T06:18:00-06:00December 10th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The commodity complex was quietly mixed early Friday morning, and while the calendar shows us to be in December, meaning winter, the weather outside is anything but frightful. At least for now. As I mentioned in Friday’s early [...]

More Red that Green

2021-12-08T05:53:51-06:00December 8th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As I ran the traps of the different commodity market sectors early Wednesday morning, the clear pattern was more markets were in the red (lower) to start the day than in the green (higher). Notably, crude oil was [...]

Blowout

2021-12-07T06:08:46-06:00December 7th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at the energy complex early Tuesday and the first thing that jumps out is another strong rally by crude oil. The spot-month contract gained as much as $2.20 (3.1%) overnight, with solid buying tied to both [...]

A Very Monday-Like Morning

2021-12-06T06:20:33-06:00December 6th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I don’t mean to sound like the cartoon character Garfield the Cat, but Monday mornings do indeed have a certain feel to them. For many it’s hard to get going without copious amounts of coffee, a market that [...]

Another Report Day

2021-12-03T06:00:45-06:00December 3rd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: In the grain and oilseed complex, there is a certain set of the industry that anxiously awaits each and every report from USDA so they have something to talk about. This group likes to pretend it is stoutly [...]

Covid, Crude, and Cartels

2021-12-02T06:14:38-06:00December 2nd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Setting the hubbub over omicron aside for the time being, early Thursday’s news cycle will likely be dominated by the OPEC+ meeting that will decide, among other things, if the cartel will adhere to its planned output increase [...]

Welcome to Winter

2021-12-01T05:49:52-06:00December 1st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Yes, it is Wednesday, December 1, the first day of meteorological winter and it seems all the wailing and rending of garments at the end of November was for naught. As is usually the case, all it took [...]

Not as Black as Friday

2021-11-29T06:04:28-06:00November 29th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: This past weekend acted as a cooling off period for most markets, giving global traders time to find out more about the Omicron covid variant that led to last Friday’s collapse. The first thing that came to mind [...]

Check the Brine

2021-11-24T05:54:23-06:00November 24th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: At this point of the holiday week many in the US have lost interest in markets and are more concerned about that special family secret brine for turkey that will soon be going in the oven, fryer, or [...]

(Blank Blank) Bright Eyes

2021-11-23T06:04:29-06:00November 23rd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If we were on the game show where one has to fill in the blanks of well-known sayings, all of you who were around for the beginning of MTV (Music Television) in the early 1980s would know to [...]

Countdown to Turkey Day

2021-11-22T06:10:59-06:00November 22nd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: We have officially entered the markets' holiday season with US Thanksgiving on the calendar this Thursday. Historically it has been a time of year when, due to the lingering effects of tryptophan or general lack of interest, markets [...]

Let’s Have Another Round

2021-11-18T06:26:59-06:00November 18th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: For the most part, if you liked what you had at closing time Wednesday you can have another as a round of hair-of-the-dog early Thursday. I’m talking about markets, of course, with the US dollar index showing follow-through [...]

The Dollar Leads Again

2021-11-17T06:12:06-06:00November 17th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The US dollar index hit the next long-term upside target on its continuous monthly chart at 96.09 overnight, reaching as high as 96.24 before backing off a bit. Meanwhile, US 10-year T-note futures stubbornly hold above last month’s [...]

More Dollar Daze

2021-11-16T06:05:26-06:00November 16th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A quick check of the various market sectors finds the spotlight not so much on a commodity, but currencies instead. Leading the way is the US dollar index as it has rallied nearly 0.50 so far this week. [...]

Monday, Monday

2021-11-15T06:23:07-06:00November 15th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Another Monday morning has rolled around, and not much has changed. News headlines are the same as they were late last week, with the only difference being the US dollar index is showing a small loss rather than [...]

Almost There

2021-11-12T06:11:39-06:00November 12th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s Friday morning, meaning another weekend is looming large on the horizon. This one will be different than those we’ve seen since August given the 2021 harvest is now largely a thing of the past. This means the [...]

Dollar Days

2021-11-11T06:12:18-06:00November 11th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Before setting forth on Morning Commentary today, let me offer a tip of the cap in respect to all veterans this Armistice Day. The eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month, 1918. Turning our attention [...]

Back to Reality

2021-11-10T05:58:12-06:00November 10th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Now that the latest round of imaginary numbers are out of the way in the grain and oilseed complex, markets can go about getting back to reality of price discovery associated with real fundamentals. But before we get [...]

Big Moves

2021-10-15T06:01:12-05:00October 15th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As I said in Thursday’s Afternoon Commentary, Friday promised to be a fun day and if the overnight session is any indication, strap in tight because it looks to be quite a ride. The first thing that jumped [...]

Dollar Down

2021-10-14T06:14:25-05:00October 14th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The US dollar index has made an abrupt turn to the downside, following up Wednesday’s 0.44 selloff with a loss of another 0.34 overnight. This has taken the greenback below 94.00 to a low (so far) of 93.76. [...]

Cotton Explodes

2021-10-12T06:00:25-05:00October 12th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Before we get into a discussion of the nonsense of USDA, the overnight session saw the cotton market explode with the December contract gaining as much as 3.1 cents (2.8%). The market continues to be driven by strong [...]

The End is Near

2021-09-30T06:08:44-05:00September 30th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Well folks, somehow we have already reached the end of September, the end of the first month of meteorological fall, and the end of most financial markets third quarter. It also means the grain and oilseed sector has [...]

A Dangerous Man

2021-09-29T06:01:55-05:00September 29th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It was relatively quiet overnight for news, meaning this morning’s chatter on financial television had to do with Senator Warren’s comments Tuesday about US Fed Chairman Powell being a “dangerous man”. As I’ve long said commentators, reporters, and [...]

Still the Same

2021-09-28T06:02:02-05:00September 28th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: If you read Monday’s Morning Commentary, then you’ll like what’s in store for Tuesday because markets are pretty much the same. The grain and oilseed complex is quietly mixed, as are softs. Meanwhile, metals are under pressure as [...]

Game of Thrones

2021-09-24T06:10:36-05:00September 24th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: One of the first financial news discussions I heard this morning had to do with Costco announcing purchase limits on toilet paper, but that wasn’t the most interesting throne-related news early Friday morning. The other hot topic was [...]

Dollar Down

2021-09-23T06:16:23-05:00September 23rd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The US dollar index was under pressure overnight through early Thursday morning, following through on recent bearish technical signals as traders try to decide what to think about US Fed Chairman Powell’s comments Wednesday afternoon. The general consensus [...]

Newton Knew

2021-09-21T06:07:08-05:00September 21st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Yes, “Turnaround Tuesday” is cliché, and a phrase vastly overused in the market commentary industry. But there is a tendency, particularly following a macro event like what we saw Monday, for markets to react the opposite direction. In [...]

Rain Delay

2021-09-20T06:21:10-05:00September 20th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary:  We did see some harvest taking place as we traveled between Omaha, Nebraska and Kansas City this past weekend. Late last week I had a few reports come in of combines getting fired up, mostly across the US [...]

More of the Same

2021-09-15T06:06:21-05:00September 15th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: There was no widespread turnaround activity Tuesday night following the day session’s mostly higher close to the commodity sector. The US dollar index was under pressure once again, falling as much as 0.23 and sitting within the shadow [...]

And Here We Go

2021-09-13T06:12:39-05:00September 13th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: While the grain and oilseed complex was relatively quiet overnight through Monday morning, other sectors were seeing solid activity. Most of the talk on CNBC to start the day was of coming tax increases and the bearish effect [...]

Memories

2021-09-10T05:59:53-05:00September 10th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Well, we’ve reached another USDA report day, and I don’t have to tell most of you of my loathing of these things. But there has been some fun with the September round of silliness in the past, most [...]

Second Hand News

2021-09-09T06:18:06-05:00September 9th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The big news Wednesday was so big I didn’t hear of it second hand until long after markets had closed and Afternoon Commentary had been posted. Reportedly, FSA had mistakenly posted 2021 acreage registrations rather than waiting for [...]

Back to Work

2021-09-07T06:19:22-05:00September 7th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Welcome back from the long 3-day US holiday weekend though markets were still acting a bit groggy. Th US dollar index was showing a modest gain, adding as much as 0.13 early and putting light pressure on the [...]

Fall In

2021-09-01T05:51:19-05:00September 1st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Good morning everyone, and welcome to the first day of meteorological fall. Wednesday’s early markets aren’t much different than what we saw 24 hours ago as summer was set to end. However, the energy complex was back in [...]

It Figures

2021-08-31T05:50:09-05:00August 31st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: And here we are, the last day of meteorological summer, and much of the eastern US has seen rain over the last 24 hours (see attached map). It figures, given how dry the summer quarter was for so [...]

It Rained

2021-08-25T05:59:38-05:00August 25th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I’m old enough to remember a time when an overnight rain system covering most of the 3-I states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana in late August would put heavy pressure on corn and soybean markets. This time around [...]

Leftovers

2021-08-20T06:12:02-05:00August 20th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: It’s a Friday morning in late August meaning there isn’t much new to talk about. Thursday’s story was the strength of the US dollar adding to the weakness of the commodity sector in general, with shades of that [...]

The Dollar Story

2021-08-19T05:58:18-05:00August 19th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The first thing that jumped out at me Thursday morning was the extended rally by the US dollar index. After posting a solid rally Wednesday, the idea was the greenback could come under pressure overnight through early Thursday [...]

July Jobs

2021-08-06T06:17:38-05:00August 6th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: Today’s title sounds like a summer action movie, doesn’t it? Possibly about a rogue member of a powerful family owning the largest computer company in the world hunting down global hackers. If such a movie existed, my guess [...]

Nothing There

2021-07-21T06:18:44-05:00July 21st, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: The first thing that jumped out at me as I ran the normal market traps Wednesday morning was nothing. As in the 5-day precipitation forecast map is largely empty for the US Plains and Midwest. As in markets [...]

As Expected

2021-07-20T06:16:29-05:00July 20th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: I know the phrase “Turnaround Tuesday” gets tossed around a great deal, and my late friend and CBOT floor reporter Gary Wilhelmi didn’t think much about the idea, but as one who follows cycles and patterns it’s a [...]

Still the Same

2021-07-09T05:47:51-05:00July 9th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: A look at both the 5-day precipitation forecast and past 24-hour precipitation accumulation maps shows a similar picture to what we’ve seen the last couple mornings. Much of the US Northern Plains and upper Midwest, including Iowa, saw [...]

Ready for the Show

2021-07-02T05:42:27-05:00July 2nd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As I mentioned in Thursday’s Afternoon Commentary, the grain and oilseed complex could be on the threshold of the most volatile WWW (Wraparound Weather-market Weekend) Activity of the year starting today and lasting through Tuesday morning given the [...]

Still Sleeping

2021-06-29T06:17:49-05:00June 29th, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: One can’t blame the markets for sleeping in Tuesday morning after most sectors posted volatile trade starting overnight Sunday through Monday’s close. However, when markets do wake up and the morning coffee kicks in, most will see the [...]

A Reprieve

2021-06-23T06:01:16-05:00June 23rd, 2021|Commentary, Morning Commentary|

Morning Summary: As expected, the grain and oilseed complex was able to post a modest rally overnight on generally light trade volume, with Minneapolis (HRS) wheat still leading the way. Just as Tuesday’s strong noncommercial-led selloff wasn’t a huge surprise, [...]

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