For a holiday shortened day and week, things got interesting in some of the markets this Black Friday: The US dollar index fell as much as 0.76 and threatened a move back below 96.00, after setting a high this week [...]
A quick check of markets Friday morning shows us: The S&P 500 is down 63 points (1.3%) The US dollar index is down 0.55 The euro is up 0.00819 Yield on the 10-year T-Note is 1.527% (down 0.114%) Gold is [...]
Good morning everyone. Just a reminder our office is closed Friday, but I am still keeping an eye on markets. And what I see early sets the stage for what is expected to be an explosive Black Friday sale: The [...]
We are heading down the homestretch toward the US Thanksgiving holiday, so I thought I'd share with you a short list of what I'm thankful for. Pie. Everything else is a side dish. That I don't have to fly somewhere [...]
A reminder I will be appearing on RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT) Wednesday morning, as always sponsored by my friends at Barchart. A lot to talk about again this morning, most notably the strength of there US dollar index and Treasury [...]
USDA announced export sales of 330,000 mt (12.1 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to unknown destinations and 100,000 mt (3.9 mb) of 2021-2022 corn to Mexico.
It has been announced by the White House the US will release 50 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. According to a news report from CNBC, "The move is a coordinated effort between energy-consuming nations including [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Tuesday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
I will be appearing on RFD-TV at 8:15 (CT) Tuesday morning, as always sponsored by my friends at Barchart. A lot to discuss, including the recent strength of the US dollar index and the possible ripple effects on the Three [...]
Each Friday, my friend Neils Christensen, an editor at Kitco News, sends me an email poll regarding the next week’s direction in King Gold. The three questions are: Where do you see gold’s price headed next week: Up, down, or [...]
It has been an interesting Monday morning in livestock markets early: Live cattle are higher, led by an almost $1 rally in December Is this due to last Friday's Cattle on Feed report numbers? No But a fun drinking game [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Monday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
To get an idea of what real fundamentals are in the cattle market, as opposed to USDA’s imaginary version its November 1 Cattle on Feed report set for release Friday afternoon, let’s take a look at what futures spreads have [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Friday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
A couple of interesting pieces of news coming across the wires Thursday morning: Initial jobless claims for the week ended November 13 came in at 268,000, little changed from the previous week's reported 269,000 Continuing claims, for the week ending [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Thursday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
You weekly reminder I will be talking markets on RFD-TV Wednesday morning at 8:45 (CT), as always sponsored by my friends at Barchart. A lot to talk about again today including the resurgent soybean meal and soybean markets and the [...]
USDA announced a sale of 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China. A sale of 30,000 mt of 2021-2022 soybean oil to India was also announced.
I mentioned in Wednesday's Morning Commentary how a number of markets were sending mixed technical messages.Here's what I see heading into Wednesday's session (short-term trends on daily charts, intermediate-term tends on weekly charts, long-term trends on monthly charts): March Corn [...]
We continue to see results of weaker carry in both soybean and corn futures spreads last week. USDA announced a sale of 161,000 mt (5.9 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to unknown destinations. A sale of 270,000 mt (10.6 mb) of [...]
There isn't a lot going on out in the Barn early Monday morning, with all three markets quietly in the red: Live Cattle Early pressure looks to be a light round of noncommercial selling, as indicated by futures spreads. Cash [...]
USDA announced a sale of 264,000 mt (9.7 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to unknown destinations. Also, 198,200 mt (7.8 mb) of corn to Mexico with 148,200 mt (5.8 mb) for 2021-2022 and 50,000 mt (2.0 mb) for 2022-2023.
The soybean market is fascinating at midday, from both a technical and fundamental point of view: Technically Barring a meltdown the last half of Friday's session futures contracts are set to complete bullish reversal patterns on their respective weekly charts, [...]
USDA reported a sale of 256,930 mt (9.4 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to unknown destinations.
Though it doesn't get talked about as much, there is a lot going on in the livestock markets this week: Live Cattle Cash cattle has been reported at $131, up from $130 last week. With Dec futures still trading near [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Thursday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
Your weekly reminder I will be appearing on RFD-TV to talk markets at 8:45 (CT) Wednesday morning. As always, sponsored by my friends at Barchart. Some topics of interest could be: USDA's corn supply and demand estimates getting in line [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Wednesday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
The Keno[i] numbers, aka USDA’s November Supply and Demand estimates, have been released Tuesday morning and here’s what they look like: Corn The latest guess on US production came in at 15.062 bb, up slightly from last month’s 15.019 bb and [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Tuesday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
The first half hour of the week saw livestock markets trade quietly, for the most part. Live cattle were higher, as expected following reports of stronger cash late last week, with feeders near unchanged and lean hogs showing light pressure. [...]
USDA announced a sale of 150,000 mt (5.9 mb) of 2021-2022 corn to Colombia.
It has been a busy Friday morning, and I have some market news to pass along: Corn A good friend in central Nebraska sent me a message, "Cargill is running out of room and the feedlot is shutting corn at [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Friday morning there were no new export sales or cancelations announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
I was concerned about potential follow-through selling in soybeans following Wednesday's session, and so far that is what we've seen. Notably, the January issue took out its previous 4-day low of $12.3675 on its way to an initial daily low [...]
Export Sales: USDA announced a sale of 100,000 mt (3.7 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to Egypt.
As of 8:05 (CT) Wednesday morning there were no new export sales or cancellation announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
Good morning again everyone. A couple media events for you today: I will be joining the WIBW Radio (Topeka, KS) Ag Issue radio program at 6am (CT). You can listen live at this link. I will be doing my weekly [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Tuesday morning there were no new export sales or cancellation announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
I will be appearing on RFD-TV Tuesday morning at 8:15 (CT) to talk markets. As always sponsored by my friends at Barchart. A lot to talk about again after Monday's moves in cash, futures, and basis. The subject of Feeder [...]
I'm a little surprised by early activity in the livestock sector, most notably the early buying seen in live cattle. I was expecting to see some follow-through selling from last week, but instead contracts seem to be building initially on [...]
USDA announced export sales of 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China.
The final numbers are in for calculating US government crop insurance harvest prices. These are the daily average closing prices for December corn and November soybeans during the month of October that are then compared to the base prices established [...]
I know the question is out there, "What the h-e-double hockey sticks is going on with October live cattle?!" I've seen this before, so my first hunch is someone is hung up in a short position as the contract moves [...]
USDA announced export sales early Friday morning: 2021-2022 corn 279,415 mt (11.0 mb) to Mexico 2021-2022 soybeans 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) to unknown destinations 222,350 mt (8.2 mb) to unknown destinations
We need to be careful with December corn in here as the contract pulls back from its early session high of $5.6875. Daily stochastics have moved into overbought territory above 80%, in position for a bearish crossover by the end [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Thursday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
Sometimes markets are fascinating regardless of whether they are up or down. In the case of soybeans Wednesday it's because contracts have been both. Mid-morning saw the entire grain and oilseed complex liftoff with November soybeans gaining as much as [...]
Well, I think it's safe to say December corn confirmed it is now in Wave 3 of its 5-wave intermediate-term uptrend as it finally blew out the Wave 1 peak of $5.4850. Wednesday morning has seen the contract race to [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Wednesday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
Your weekly reminder I will be on RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT) Wednesday morning, as always sponsored by my friends at Barchart. A lot to talk about again today including rains across the Midwest, the big move in cattle markets, and [...]
USDA announced 2021-2022 soybean sales of 199,000 mt (7.3 mb) to China and 125,730 mt (4.6 mb) to Mexico.
As expected, live cattle have charged out of the gate following last Friday's October 1 Cattle on Feed report. I still view this as a knee-jerk reaction, and a foolish one at that, given the placement and on-feed numbers were [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Monday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
The US is now 3/4 the way through the harvest pricing period for government crop insurance, and through last Friday's close both corn and soybeans continue to run well above last spring's base price. On the corn side of the [...]
Friday is expiration day for November grain and oilseed options, including the closely watched soybean contracts. The market saying that has been around longer than I have is options will expire at the price level that causes the most pain. [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Friday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
When my family shows me a picture that includes me, the first question I always ask is, "Whose the old guy with white hair?". Then I realize it's me. Every time. Yes, I've been doing this since 1987, but what [...]
USDA announced an export sale of 130,000 mt (5.1 mb) of 2021-2022 corn to Mexico.
Your weekly reminder I will be on RFD-TV Wednesday morning at 8:45 (CT). As always, sponsored by my friends at Barchart. I hope you can join us.
As of 8:05 (CT) Wednesday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
I usually post Commentary on a weekly comparison of NWS Climate Prediction Center soil maps, but this week's map has me skeptical of what is being shown. The deficit situation across much of the US Northern Plains suddenly disappeared. Given [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Tuesday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
Early Monday activity fins the livestock sector mostly lower, with deferred feeder issues starting the day in the green. Live Cattle Last week's cash market was reportedly in the $124 to $125 range, meaning the October trading near $126 could [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Monday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
With Week 2 of October now in the books, new-crop corn and soybeans are halfway to the final calculations of 2021 harvest prices for the government insurance program. December corn is showing a daily average close of $5.30, as compared to [...]
Friday morning's announced sales fit with the commercial buying seen over the last few overnight sessions. USDA announced 2021-2022 soybean export sales of: 396,000 mt (14.6 mb) to unknown destinations 326,750 mt (12.0 mb) to unknown destinations 132,000 mt (4.9 [...]
The first thing my son Ben said to me today was, "Have you seen natural gas?!" To be honest, after mentioning it in Thursday's Morning Commentary I got busy on a couple other projects and had checked in on it. [...]
USDA announced export sales of 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to unknown destinations (see Soybean Market discussion in Morning Commentary).
USDA announced export sales of 2021-2022 Corn 161,544 mt (6.4 mb) to unknown destinations. 2021-2022 Soybeans (as expected, see Morning Commentary) 330,000 mt (12.1 mb) to China 198,000 mt (7.3 mb) to unknown destinations
Your weekly reminder I will be on RFD-TV Wednesday morning at 8:45 (CT). As always, sponsored by my friends at Barchart. Hmm...I wonder what we will talk about today. I hope you can join us.
A quick summary of USDA's monthly supply and demand silliness (October/September): 2021-2022 Corn Production 15.019 bb/14.996 bb Planted Acres 93.3 ma/93.3 ma Yield 176.5 bpa/176.3 bpa Ending Stocks 1.500 bb/1.408 bb Soybeans Production 4.448 bb/4.374 bb Planted Acres 87.2 ma/87.2 [...]
USDA announced a sale of 165,000 mt (6.5 mb) of 2021-2022 corn to Mexico.
The best market advice I ever learned and now share is do not turn your back on the Widow Maker, also known as natural gas. Monday is a great example of what this always volatile market can do. Recall from [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Monday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
A good friend was kind enough to remind me this past week that the month of October brings with it the harvest price calculation of US government crop insurance, a price that is then compared to the base price established [...]
With about an hour and a half left in Friday' session, the situation in the soybean market is tightening up. Contracts posted a solid rally overnight, but spent most of Friday morning and much of the day session watching its [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Friday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
Ouch... Not that I believe this report any more than others, but the September jobs report came in at 194,000 as compared to the pre-report estimate of 500,000. US unemployment dropped to 4.8% from the previous month's 5.2% At first [...]
USDA announced export sales of: 261,264 mt (9.6 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to Mexico and 314,256 mt (12.4 mb) of 2021-2022 corn, also to Mexico.
As of 8:05 (CT) Wednesday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
Hi again everyone. A couple media events to point out to you today: I will be on WIBW Radio's Ag Issues program at 6am (CT). I will post a link to listen live on Twitter. I will be making my [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Tuesday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
I ran short of time and space in Tuesday’s Morning Commentary to give adequate attention to the livestock sector, so I wanted to give it its own space this morning. Monday’s session was an incredible start to the week with [...]
USDA announced a sale of 426,800 mt (16.8 mb) of 2021-2022 corn to Mexico.
A friend from central Nebraska sent me a message reading, "Just found out Tyson is only buying contract cattle through the end of November. Concern is they are going to have a lot of workers walk off by November 1 [...]
A good friend in the livestock industry contacted me Thursday afternoon and made an interesting observation. He pointed out the feeder cattle market had changed its tone late in the day, and while contracts still closed lower the commercial side [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Friday morning there were no new export sale or cancellation announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
USDA's Quarterly Stocks and Small Grain Summary has been released. Quarterly Stocks (as of September 1)/Pre-report estimate Corn: 1.236 bb/1.155 bb (high of 1.252 bb) Soybeans: 256 mb/174 mb (high of 202 mb) All wheat: 1.780 bb/1.852 bb (low of [...]
The grain and oilseed complex posted an interesting pop at the open of Thursday's session with December corn gaining as much as 7.25 cents (at this writing), November soybeans 9.75 cents, and December Chicago (SRW) wheat 10.75 cents. Early activity [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Thursday morning there were no new export sale or cancellation announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
Your weekly reminder I will be on RFD-TV this morning at 8:45 (CT), as always sponsored by my friends at Barchart. The main topics for me this week: Seasonal turns in corn and soybeans Looking ahead at noncommercial activity Forecasts [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Wednesday morning there were no new export sale or cancellation announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
Though I'll be going into more detail on the long-term monthly chart of the US dollar index ($DXY) later this week, this morning saw the greenback post a new 4-month high beyond the August mark of 93.72. The $DXY hit [...]
USDA announced a sale of 150,000 mt (5.9 mb) of 2021-2022 corn to Mexico. This fits with the short-covering seen in the Dec corn contract of late.
Monday's open in the livestock sector was active following last Friday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs and Monday Cattle on Feed reports, to say the least: Lean hogs were sharply higher with December jumping more than $3.50. This left an incredible gap [...]
USDA announced a sale of 334,0900 mt (12.3 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China. So much for my trade volume and open interest analysis of last Friday's session in soybeans in Morning Commentary.
As of 8:05 (CT) Friday morning there were no new export sales or cancellations announced on the USDA/FAS website.
USDA announced a sale of 138,403 mt (5.4 mb) of 2021-2022 corn to Guatemala. This fits with some of the decrease in open interest of December corn the last couple sessions.
Your weekly reminder I will be on RFD-TV Wednesday morning at 8:45 (CT). As always, this spot is sponsored by my friends at Barchart. There is a lot to talk about again this week: Seasonality of corn, soybeans, and wheat [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Wednesday morning there were no new export sales announcements or cancellations on the USDA/FAS website.
As of 8:05 (CT) Tuesday morning there were no new export sales announcements or cancellations on the USDA/FAS website.
As of 8:05 (CT) Monday morning there were no new export sales announcements or cancellations on the USDA/FAS website.
USDA announced a sale of 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China.
USDA announced sales of 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China. This is interesting, as the day before China reportedly cancelled 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans.
This is your weekly reminder I will be on RFD-TV Wednesday morning at 8:45 (CT) talking markets. As always, this spot is sponsored by my friends at Barchart. There is a lot to talk about again this morning: Soybean sales [...]
USDA announced cancellations of 2021-22 soybeans: 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) to China 196,000 mt (7.2 mb) to unknown destinations While we did see the carry in soybean futures spreads strengthen Tuesday, I wasn't looking for cancellations to begin already. It [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Tuesday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
The Chaos Event of the JBS packing plant fire in Grand Island, Nebraska led to the October live cattle contract opening at $121.975, down $1.70, before falling to an initial low of $120.85. Daily limits are $5.00, and with the [...]
I just had a good friend call me and tell me about the JBS packing plant fire in Grand Island, Nebraska. I don not have much information on the situation but will be trying to find out what I can [...]
Correction: USDA announced a sale of 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to unknown destinations.
Just some random thoughts as most in the industry count down the minutes until the next round of monthly USDA silliness: Corn: It would be ideal if Dec corn would hit $5.00 before the release of the September reports. This [...]
USDA announced a sale of 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China. This is likely part of the commercial buying we saw in the soybean market during Thursday's session.
It's short notice I know, but I will be making another appearance on RFD-TV this morning at 8:15 (CT). I hope you can join us.
Export Sales: USDA announced a sale of 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China.
USDA announced a sale of 106,000 mt (3.9 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China.
Good evening everyone. Just want to give you advance notice Wednesday will be a busy day for media appearances: 6am (CT): WIBW Radio Ag Issues Program 8:45 am (CT): Weekly RFD-TV appearance to talk markets. Should be a lot to [...]
USDA announced a sale of 327,300 mt (12.0 mb) of 2021-2022 hard red winter wheat to Nigeria. This would be another reason we’ve seen commercial buying in Kansas City of late.
There were a couple interesting news items out Friday morning: The August Nonfarm payroll number came in at 235,000, well below the expected 720,000 and last month's 1.05 million Af course there were a number of revisions to previous month's, [...]
USDA announced a sale of 130,000 mt (4.8 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China.
USDA announced a sale of 126,000 mt (4.6 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China.
I was glancing through my various market pages again and noticed the US dollar index had turned lower. Out of habit, I followed that up with a look at energies to see how King Crude Oil was responding. Lo and [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Wednesday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
Your weekly reminder I will be on RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT) Wednesday morning. As always this is sponsored by my friends at Barchart. There is a lot to talk about as a new month gets under way: The long-term uptrend [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Tuesday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
A look at early activity in the livestock complex shows all three markets in the red. Though trade volume is light to start the day and week, Carlin indications are some commercial selling is putting pressure on all three markets. [...]
USDA announced export sales of 256,000 mt (9.4 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China.
US Fed Chairman Powell made his comments Friday morning, and made them clearly. The bottom line is he continues to see inflation as transitory, and given that will not be rushed into raising interest rates. As one would expect, this [...]
USDA announced export sales of 150,000 mt (5.9 mb) of 2021-2022 corn to Colombia and a 129,000 mt (4.7 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China.
USDA announced export sales of: 2021-2022 Corn 100,000 mt (3.9 mb) to Colombia 2021-2022 Soybeans 133,000 mt (4.9 mb) to China 132,150 (4.9 mb) to unknown destinations
As of 8:05 (CT) Wednesday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
Your weekly reminder I will be appearing on RFD-TV Wednesday morning at 8:45 (CT) to talk markets, sponsored by my friends at Barchart. As always, there is a lot to talk about this morning. Please send me any questions or [...]
USDA announced sales of 125,300 mt (4.9 mb) of 2021-2022 corn to Mexico and 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China.
A good friend just sent me a simple message, "Open interest in cattle...Wow!" My friend just used 5 words to better explain live cattle than the many hundred-word column I am embarking on to try to explain the same market. [...]
As I mentioned in Morning Commentary, December corn was not out of the bearish woods yet after holding above its previous 4-week low by one tick last Friday. Sure enough, the contract had taken out last Friday's low of $5.3250 [...]
USDA announced a sale of 458,600 mt (18.1 mb) of 2021-2022 corn to Mexico.
Hi Everyone. I will be out of the office until Sunday evening. At that time I will catch up on Cattle on Feed, CFTC Reports, my next Weekly Column, etc. Have a good weekend. Darin
As of 8:05 (CT) Friday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website. Recall from Thursday's Afternoon Commentary: "November lost 0.5 cent to January, the spread closing at a carry of 4.5 cents, hinting at an [...]
I just had a great question come in regarding Chicago (SRW) and the possibility of the CME's Variable Storage Rate (VSR) kicking in. My friend asked, "Looking at the wheat complex, and reading Morning Commentary, mathematically are we near VSR [...]
USDA announced 2021-2022 soybean sales of 263,000 mt (9.7 mb) to China and 148,590 mt (5.5 mb) to Mexico. This makes 11 consecutive days and stays in step with the Nov-January futures spread.
USDA announced a sale of 131,000 mt (4.8 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to China. This makes 10 days in a row of announced new-crop soybean sales.
Hi again everyone. This is your weekly reminder I will be on RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT) Wednesday morning talking markets, as always sponsored by my friends at Barchart. There is a lot to talk about again this morning as the [...]
While I was writing the wheat section of Tuesday's Afternoon Commentary, I was reminded of a story from my high school days many decades ago. As you can see on the attached Kansas City (HRW) Cost of Carry table, the [...]
USDA announced 2021-2022 soybean sales of 198,000 mt (7.3mb) to China and 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) to unknown destinations.
I will be making a guest appearance on RFD-TV this morning at 8:10 (CT). I hope you can join us.
USDA announced export sales of 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2021-2022.
The grain and oilseed complex was under pressure to start the overnight session with most contracts in the red. However, if a couple outliers (soybean oil and canola) start firm they could bring buying back to the soybean market by [...]
There wasn't much rain over the Western Corn Belt this past weekend, and in a few minutes we'll find out how much traders care. A look at Market Depth tables on my cmdtyView shows: Dec Corn (closed last Friday at [...]
USDA announced soybean sales for the seventh consecutive day: Unknown destinations 2020-2021 (hard to believe, I know): 200 mt 2021-2022: 326,000 mt (12.0 mb) China 2021-2022: 126,000 mt (4.6 mb)
USDA announced sales: 2021-2022 Soybeans 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) to China 198,000 mt (7.3 mb) to unknown destinations
