What the Fed Said

2023-09-20T13:11:30-05:00September 20th, 2023|Quick Takes|

The US Federal Reserve held rates unchanged at the conclusion of its September meeting, leaving it in the 5.25% to 5.5% range. This leaves the door open to at least one more hike during 2023, with the next meeting in [...]

The Analyst is In

2023-09-13T05:05:34-05:00September 13th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Good morning everyone. I am back in the office following my trip to Nashville. I will be talking more about it over the coning days. Did I miss anything? I'm joking, kind of. From what I could tell Tuesday things [...]

Out of the Office

2023-09-10T07:20:08-05:00September 10th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Good Sunday morning everyone. I will be out of the office the rest of Sunday through Tuesday. I'm speaking at Barchart's Grain Merchandising & Technology Conference in Nashville Monday morning. I'll tell you all about it when I get back. [...]

Monday Night Markets

2023-09-04T19:10:51-05:00September 4th, 2023|Quick Takes|

It was another hot and dry weekend across the US Plains and Midwest. We'll see what happens on Monday night's open, coming out of a US 3-day holiday weekend. Recall last Friday was highlighted by low trade volume before basis [...]

Come Monday

2023-09-04T05:34:15-05:00September 4th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Good morning everyone. And for all of you in the US, enjoy the Labor Day holiday. I meant to post this Sunday evening, and given the title it would've made more sense. Of course it pays homage to the singer/songwriter [...]

Sunday Night Markets

2023-08-27T19:11:35-05:00August 27th, 2023|Quick Takes|

With roughly 15 minutes before grains open, I can still make bullish and bearish arguments for corn, soybeans, and wheat. In the soybean market, the 6 to 10-day weather forecast shows continued hot and dry conditions across the US Plains [...]

On Air Tuesday

2023-08-22T06:48:45-05:00August 22nd, 2023|Quick Takes|

Your weekly reminder I'll be talking markets on RFD-TV at 8:15 (CT). Possible topics: If I'm lucky, discussion of the ongoing crop tour and NASS' latest number will be held to a minimum. Weather and soybeans is a constant, so [...]

2023 Crop Tour

2023-08-21T10:33:23-05:00August 21st, 2023|Quick Takes|

A friend sent me a message Monday morning asking, "Has there ever been a year when the 'ABC' Crop Tour did not wreck the market?" First, thank you for reminding me this annual nonsense was occurring this week. I should've [...]

On Air Monday

2023-08-21T08:07:48-05:00August 21st, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be discussing markets on the Agriculture of America talk show at 9:05 (CT). Possible topics include: Continued forecasts of hot and dry weather across the US Plains and Midwest Last Friday's Cattle on Feed numbers for August 1 [...]

Sunday Night Markets

2023-08-20T19:14:47-05:00August 20th, 2023|Quick Takes|

The big news this past weekend was the dangerous heat across the US Plains and Midwest. This will most likely have the attention of grain and oilseed traders when the markets open Sunday night. However, a preliminary look at weekly [...]

On Air Wednesday

2023-08-16T07:28:19-05:00August 16th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Your weekly Wednesday reminder I'll be talking markets on RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT). Possible Topics: Dec23 corn crossing the event horizon of $4.81. Nov23 soybeans with another double-digit rally overnight. News of Russia bombing additional Ukrainian port grain silos supporting [...]

On Air Tuesday

2023-08-15T07:16:17-05:00August 15th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Your weekly reminder I'll be on RFD-TV at 8:15 (CT) talking markets. Possible Topics: Dec23 corn's Event Horizon ($4.81) US Soil Moisture Anomaly Maps US SRW Wheat - The Inevitable VSR Boxed Beef bounce Another Lean Hog reversal? US dollar [...]

On Air Monday

2023-08-14T07:06:18-05:00August 14th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be discussing markets on the Agriculture of America talk show at 9:05 (CT). Possible Topics: Leftovers from last Friday USDA's attempt to raise prices for insurance purposes What the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed us Basis [...]

Sunday Night Markets

2023-08-13T19:12:19-05:00August 13th, 2023|Quick Takes|

(18:45) Heading into Sunday night's open, the key number in the grain and oilseed sector is $4.81. This is last month's low posted by the Dec23 corn corn contract, which closed at $4.8725 last Friday. A move below that mark [...]

On Air Friday

2023-08-11T07:11:50-05:00August 11th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be visiting with Michelle Rook on Markets Now at 8:45 (CT). Possible Topics: Obviously today's nonsense from USDA is a possibility. Weekend weather. Markets in many sectors growing quiet. We'll see what else we can come up. I [...]

On Air Wednesday

2023-08-09T07:07:04-05:00August 9th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I'll be making my weekly Wednesday appearance on RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT). Possible Topics: Grains have grown quiet ahead of USDA's monthly supply and demand nonsense. Fundamentally, grain markets are less bullish, as indicated by futures spreads and basis. Speaking [...]

On Air Tuesday

2023-08-08T07:09:55-05:00August 8th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be talking markets on RFD-TV at 8:15 (CT). Possible Topics Include: Bearish weather forecasts for soybeans. What we learned from Brazil six months ago. July lows coming into sight for both September and December corn. Chicago Wheat real [...]

On Air Monday

2023-08-07T08:12:36-05:00August 7th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be discussing markets on the Agriculture of America talk show at 9:05 (CT). Possible Topics: Beneficial weekend weather for soybeans and corn. More headlines out of the Black Sea region for Chicago wheat and corn Corn caught in [...]

Sunday Night Markets

2023-08-06T19:11:28-05:00August 6th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I'm writing this segment about 15 minutes before the open of Sunday night's session. As always, a reminder of the Wilhelmi Element: The only price that matters is the close. The Sunday night open gets a lot of attention, but [...]

On Air Thursday

2023-08-03T06:57:53-05:00August 3rd, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be talking markets with Michelle Rook on Markets Now at 8:45 (CT). Possible Topics: US weather will likely be in the spotlight as we get closer to the weekend. The latest weekly export sales and shipments Breakdown in [...]

Breaking News: Ukraine

2023-08-02T06:34:56-05:00August 2nd, 2023|Quick Takes|

Though it isn't actually Breaking News, as it happened overnight, I found the "why" to the "what" of the jump in corn and soybeans on increased trade volume. Reportedly, Russia bombed another grain facility at a port in souther Ukraine, [...]

On Air Wednesday

2023-08-02T04:45:38-05:00August 2nd, 2023|Quick Takes|

I have a couple media opportunities Wednesdays morning. First, I'll be the guest on WIBW Radio's Ag Issues program at 6:00 (CT). Then I'll be making my usual Wednesday appearance on RFD-TV at 8:45. Topics: The latest in grains. Weather [...]

On Air Tuesday

2023-08-01T07:13:41-05:00August 1st, 2023|Quick Takes|

Your Tuesday reminder I'll be talking markets on RFD-TV at 8:15 (CT). Possible Topics: Though I hope not, the Browning Effect could come up Also what the end of July selloff might mean And weather Cattle markets stuck in neutral, [...]

On Air Monday

2023-07-31T08:17:50-05:00July 31st, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be discussing markets on the Agriculture of America talk show with new host Jesse Allen at 9:50 (CT). Possible topics include: Why grains and oilseeds posted big losses overnight when the news was similar to what drove markets [...]

Sunday Night Markets

2023-07-30T19:16:13-05:00July 30th, 2023|Quick Takes|

As I write this introduction, I have no idea how the grain and oilseed sector will open. Will Watson react to news of more Ukrainian Black Sea grain facilities being targeted? Previous week's have seen a sharp early rally on [...]

What the Fed Said

2023-07-26T13:04:02-05:00July 26th, 2023|Quick Takes|

As expected, the US Federal Open Market Committee raised the Fed fund rate by 25 basis points, taking it to 5.25% to 5.5%, reportedly the highest level in over 22 years. As Jeff Cox of CNBC.com wrote in his initial [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2023-07-26T08:09:37-05:00July 26th, 2023|Quick Takes|

USDA announced a sale of 272,000 mt (10.0 mb) of 2023-2024 soybeans to unknown destinations. Also, a strangely worded announcement that reads, “229,000 mt (8.4 mb) of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the [...]

On Air Wednesday

2023-07-26T06:51:13-05:00July 26th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Your Wednesday reminder I'll be talking markets on RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT). Possible topics include: What the US Fed might say, and will it matter The continued rally in US stock indexes US SRW wheat's bearish fundamentals And of course [...]

On Air Tuesday

2023-07-25T07:10:32-05:00July 25th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Your Tuesday reminder I'll be making my weekly appearance on RFD-TV at 8:15 (CT). Topics will likely be the Big 3: Weather Ukraine Well, we'll see about Number 3 We also have: The start of the July FOMC meeting Boxed [...]

On Air Monday

2023-07-24T07:28:55-05:00July 24th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be visiting with my friend Mike Pearson on the Agriculture of America talk show at 9:05 (CT). Much to talk about again today, including: Ukraine The Weather and last Friday's cattle numbers I hope you will join us.

On Air Thursday

2023-07-20T11:36:25-05:00July 20th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I'll be talking Closing Markets with Michelle Rook on AgDay TV at 13:30 (CT) Thursday. A lot to talk about. With two hours remaining, I'm not even going to try to guess what the topics might be. I hope you [...]

On Air Wednesday

2023-07-19T08:12:52-05:00July 19th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be making my weekly Wednesday appearance on RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT). Likely topics: The explosive rally in the grain and oilseed sector Black Sea situation deteriorating Fund short covering in Chicago wheat and corn Crush demand growing stronger [...]

On Air Tuesday

2023-07-18T07:11:28-05:00July 18th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be making my weekly Tuesday appearance on RFD-TV at 8:15 (CT). Topics: Black Sea The end of the grain deal Russia attacking the port of Odessa Weather Short-term rains Longer-term drying out Trends Starting to change Boxed beef [...]

On Air Monday

2023-07-17T10:28:09-05:00July 17th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be visiting with my friend Mike Pearson on the Agriculture of America talk show at 9:05 (CT). (10:30 CT update): I had a second media opportunity come up, this one with my old friends at WHO Radio. I'll [...]

Sunday Night Markets

2023-07-17T05:20:19-05:00July 16th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Weather should move into the spotlight again this week, with rains seen over much of the US Plains and Midwest this past weekend (slide 1). Looking ahead, the NWS 6 to 10-day forecast is calling for a mix of temperatures, [...]

On Air Wednesday

2023-07-12T07:01:52-05:00July 12th, 2023|Quick Takes|

A reminder I'll be making my weekly Wednesday appearance on RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT). The topic of the day will likely be the pink elephant in the room: USDA's July round of supply and demand guesses. But we could also [...]

On Air Tuesday

2023-07-11T06:53:53-05:00July 11th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I'll be making my weekly Tuesday appearance on RFD-TV at 8:15 (CT). Possible Topics: Renewed buying in corn and soybeans. Weather? Or something more? Winter wheat harvest rolls along. Boxed beef breakdown What it might mean for live cattle A [...]

On Air Monday

2023-07-10T07:11:11-05:00July 10th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I have a couple media appearances Monday morning. First, I'll be talking t0 Michelle Rook on Markets Now at 8:45 (CT). Then I'll be visiting with Mike Pearson on the Agriculture of America talk show at 9:15. Possible Topics: Weather [...]

Sunday Night Markets

2023-07-09T19:11:33-05:00July 9th, 2023|Quick Takes|

If nothing else, the last few weeks have shown us the truth behind what I like to call the Wilhelmi Element. The late Gary Wilhelmi, long-time CBOT floor reporter, told me a number of times, "The only price that matters [...]

On Air Wednesday

2023-07-05T05:39:52-05:00July 5th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I have a couple media appearances Wednesday morning. First, I'll be on the WIBW Radio (Topeka, Kansas) Ag Issues radio program at 6:00 (CT). Then, I'll make my weekly Wednesday appearance on RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT). Possible Topics: Changing weather [...]

On Air Monday

2023-07-03T08:17:26-05:00July 3rd, 2023|Quick Takes|

I'll be visiting with my good friend Mike Pearson on the Agriculture of America talk show at 9:05 Monday. I'm sure the topic of choice will be the fallout from last Friday's USDA numbers. Were we really surprised by the [...]

Sunday Night Markets

2023-07-02T19:12:14-05:00July 2nd, 2023|Quick Takes|

This past weekend saw more rain fall across parts of the US Midwest, though I'm not sure total coverage was as widespread as forecast. Also, the corn and soybean markets could see a reaction to last Friday's post-report action. Also, [...]

On Air Wednesday

2023-06-28T07:23:19-05:00June 28th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Your Wednesday reminder I'll be talking markets on RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT). Possible Topics Include Corn and Soybean weather markets Winter wheat harvest The continued run of weaker boxed beef prices Resurgent Lean Hogs And more I hope you will [...]

On Air Tuesday

2023-06-27T07:37:28-05:00June 27th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Your Tuesday reminder I'll be talking markets on RFD-TV at 8:15 (CT). Possible topics include: Watson not playing along this week. Weather, naturally, with this being Week 6 of a possible 6-week weather market. Feeder Cattle bullish technical turn Lean [...]

Monday Night Markets

2023-06-26T19:09:39-05:00June 26th, 2023|Quick Takes|

As most of you know by now, NASS released its latest make-believe weekly crop condition numbers after Monday's close. The results: Corn Excellent: 8% (unchanged from last week) Good: 42% (down 5 percentage points from last week Fair: 35% (up [...]

On Air Monday

2023-06-26T07:17:40-05:00June 26th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I have a couple media appearances Monday morning. I'll be talking markets with Michelle Rook on Markets Now at 8:45 (CT). Then I'll be visiting with Mike Pearson on the Agriculture of America talk show at 9:05. Likely Topics: Weekend [...]

Sunday Night Markets

2023-06-25T19:12:42-05:00June 25th, 2023|Quick Takes|

It was an interesting weekend, that's for sure. The Civil War in Russia looks to have last less than 24 hours. I'm not sure what to make of the events other than that's what happens when an authoritarian mob boss [...]

Mother Russia

2023-06-24T08:12:15-05:00June 24th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Good morning everyone. Friday afternoon and evening a story developed regarding the war created by Russia by its invasion of Ukraine turning back on Mother Russia. The few news outlets I trust were talking about how the leader of the [...]

On Air Wednesday

2023-06-21T07:21:14-05:00June 21st, 2023|Quick Takes|

I have a couple media appearances Wednesday morning. First, my weekly visit to RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT) when I'm sure the topic will be a discussion on the world of make believe (NASS' weekly crop condition numbers). Second, I'll be [...]

On Air Tuesday

2023-06-20T07:16:21-05:00June 20th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I'll be On Air a couple times Tuesday morning. First, my weekly 8:15 (CT) spot talking markets on RFD-TV. Second, I'll be visiting with my friend Mike Pearson on the Agriculture of America talk show at 9:05. There will be [...]

On Air Friday

2023-06-16T10:38:09-05:00June 16th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be talking markets with Michelle Rook on Markets Now at 11:00 (CT). Possible Topics: The weather market in corn and soybeans Week 4 of 6? Heading into a 3-day harvest weekend for winter wheat Continued strength of boxed [...]

What the Fed Said

2023-06-14T13:05:13-05:00June 14th, 2023|Quick Takes|

As US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a couple weeks ago, the Fed held interest rates at the 5.0% to 5.25% range. This reportedly was the first time in 15 months the Fed did not rase rates. However, there [...]

On Air Wednesday

2023-06-14T07:15:08-05:00June 14th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Your Wednesday reminder I'll be talking markets on RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT). Possible Topics: Another Fed Wednesday Long-term downtrend in the US dollar index Long-term uptrends in major US stock indexes Is the boxed beef market nearing a top? Continued [...]

On Air Tuesday

2023-06-13T07:15:25-05:00June 13th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Your Tuesday reminder I'll be taking markets on RFD-TV at 8:15 (CT). Possible Topics: Renewed buying in corn and soybeans. Long-term bullish futures spreads Noncommercial activity on the last day of the positioning week Reportedly still held a net-short in [...]

On Air Monday

2023-06-12T08:11:58-05:00June 12th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be talking markets with my friend Mike Pearson on the Agriculture of America talk show at 9:05 (CT). Possible Topics: WASDE leftovers, mostly from the global side The latest developments between the US and China I saw on [...]

Sunday Night Markets

2023-06-11T19:11:02-05:00June 11th, 2023|Quick Takes|

18:45 (CT): Given the cooler, wetter weather over much of the US Plains and Midwest this weekend, my thought was we would see a round of selling in new-crop corn and soybeans at Sunday's open. However, soil moisture readings continue [...]

On Air Wednesday

2023-06-07T07:16:02-05:00June 7th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Your Wednesday reminder I'll be talking markets on RFD-TV at 8:45 (CT). Possible Topics: The continued rocket ride that is US boxed beef. Bullish Cash Grain Indexes Corn Basis bending but not breaking Lean Hogs and the Rubber Band Disposition [...]

Boxed Beef: Yowza!

2023-06-06T16:17:36-05:00June 6th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Last but certainly not least, as I mentioned in Tuesday's Afternoon Commentary all eyes would be on the reported boxed beef prices. All I can say is "Yowza"! Choice came in at $321.40 (per 100 pounds), up $7.21 for the [...]

On Air Tuesday

2023-06-06T06:59:28-05:00June 6th, 2023|Quick Takes|

Your Tuesday reminder I'll be on RFD-TV at 8:15 (CT) talking markets. Possible Topics New 22-month highs in boxed beef Going back to the end of May, can we believe what we see with bullish technical patterns in cash corn [...]

On Air Monday

2023-06-05T08:16:13-05:00June 5th, 2023|Quick Takes|

I will be visiting with Mike Pearson on the Agriculture of America talk show at 9:05 (CT). Possible Topics: Live cattle and convergence between cash and futures The back half of the first WWW (Wrap-around Weather-market Weekend) Activity of the [...]

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