As I mentioned in Friday's Morning Commentary, I was interested in seeing how the commercial side traded the livestock sector once the opening bell rang. Feeder Cattle: I was talking to a good friend Friday afternoon, and we were discussing [...]

Early activity in the livestock sector shows all three meat markets in the red, led by a 0.7% selloff in lean hogs. As I talked about in Thursday morning's Chart of the Day ("Still Bullish, But..."), the June-August lean hog [...]

I want to take a moment to point out Dec corn has posted a high Wednesday of $5.9275*, one tick off its contract high of $5.93. This puts Dec at another fork in the road (similar to what I talked [...]

The euro is posting an impressive rally Monday, and the US dollar an equally impressive selloff, without changing technical patterns seen on short-term daily, intermediate-term weekly, and long-term monthly charts. The daily chart for the euro still shows a short-term [...]

If anyone ever tries to tell you grain futures are NOT weather derivatives, feel free to show them this table. At Tuesday morning's intermission, both new-crop corn and soybean markets had fallen from solid gains to moderate losses, with commercial [...]

It's hard to believe, but it has already been a year since the spot-month May 2020 crude oil contract, heading into expiration, collapsed to a low of (-$40.32). As I talked about at the time in my Weekly Column "Life [...]

It's been a tough start to the week for live and feeder cattle, with contracts of both markets extending short-term downtrends on their respective daily charts. Futures spreads are mixed, indicating much of the early selling has come from the [...]

Shortly after I posted my latest Weekly Column, "Corn Comparisons", Sunday evening I received a simple question via direct message on Twitter, "What about '96 corn?" First, thank you for the question. I truly appreciate you taking the time to [...]

I saw a post on Twitter from a regular contributor to CNBC that said, "Gigantic retail sales and bond prices up, hmmm?" She's correct, as both 30-year T-Bonds and 10-year T-Notes are solidly higher after some bullish economic report numbers [...]

Ben just brought this one to my attention. The US 10-year T-notes established a bullish key reversal on its weekly chart last week, indicating a move to a new secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. This technical pattern confirmed a bullish crossover by [...]

It has been an interesting start to the day in the livestock sector with all three markets in the green, mostly. The outlier is April live cattle, showing a small loss but holding near $123. This is in line with [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Friday, April 9. Sometimes all one can do is just tip their cap as a sign of respect, and walk away. How does one react if the futures market posts a [...]

Friday's early activity shows both live cattle and feeder cattle contracts in the red as contracts follow-through on bearish short-term technical patterns posted at Thursday's close. Recall from yesterday afternoon's Chart of the Day, "May Feeder Cattle: A Bearish Turn", [...]

No, we did not see any new export sales announcements of corn Friday morning, though I am still of the belief these will occur over the coming days. Look at how the corn market finished the overnight session, storming back [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, April 8. Spring wheat basis earned the starting nod Thursday afternoon with the cmdty National HRS Wheat Basis Index calculated at 48.58 cents under May Minneapolis futures. This was up 0.95 [...]

To paraphrase Lieutenant Colonel Kilgore (played by Robert Duvall) of Apocalypse Now fame, "I love the smell of new sales in the morning." I was putting the weekly export sales and shipments charts together when I received a call from [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Wednesday, April 7. As we all know there are some certainties in life: Death, taxes, and as it turns out, strengthening national average corn and soybean basis. The cmdty National Corn [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Tuesday, April 6. Another day, another stronger calculation of the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index with the NSBI coming in at 26.17 cents under May futures Tuesday afternoon. This was up [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Monday, April 5. The wheat complex lived up to its reputation Monday, for as I said in Afternoon Commentary, "It's wheat, anything can happen." The cmdty National HRW Wheat Basis Index [...]

The livestock sector has posted a strong first hour, with all three markets in the green. Live Cattle: Contracts are showing a triple-digit rally, most likely supported by commercial buying tied to last week's stronger cash market. June cattle are [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, April 1. What better way to close out a week like this one than with some wild basis index calculations. Let's start with wheat this time, where all three cmdty [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Wednesday, March 31. We've seen in countless times: the star of the winning team of a major sporting event is asked what he/she is going to next, with the answer "I'm [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Tuesday, March 30. Soybean basis continues to strengthen with the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index calculated at 28.72 cents under May futures Monday's calculation came in at 29.20 cents under A [...]

There are a number of reasons for folks to question my sanity, not the least of which has been my stance as a long-term US dollar bull since the greenback posted a bullish key reversal on its monthly chart last [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Monday, March 29. It's fitting for the way this Monday played out that HRW wheat basis led the way higher. The cmdty National HRW Wheat Basis Index was calculated at 31.72 [...]

Though we haven't seen fireworks through the initial minutes of trade in livestock, there as been some interesting activity: June lean hogs quickly fell back into last Friday's gap between $103.55 and $104.55, hitting an initial low of $104.05 before [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Friday, March 26. As I mentioned in Afternoon Commentary, the best word to describe corn is "Impressive". May futures closed 6 cents higher The inverse in the May-July future spread strengthened [...]

As I mentioned in Friday's Morning Commentary, the soybean market was vulnerable to a round of commercial selling heading into another South American harvest weekend. With the grain and oilseed complex past the midpoint of its trading day (roughly 11am [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, March 25. Stop me if you've heard this one before: The cmdty National Soybean Basis Index strengthened again Thursday. That's right, the NSBI was calculated at 29.64 cents under May [...]

Lean hog contracts continue to up the ante, with August following June and July beyond the $100 level. However, I don't think any of the three are all-in yet, meaning there is room to go higher. Note the June-August spread [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Wednesday, March 24. As expected given Wednesday is a day ending in "y". the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index strengthened again The NSBI was calculated at 30.34 cents under May futures, [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Tuesday, March 23. To the surprise of no one, the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index strengthened again Tuesday afternoon. The NSBI was calculated at 30.64 cents under May futures as compared [...]

Shortly after I posted Tuesday morning's Chart of the Day looking at the July Kansas City wheat weekly chart, and talking about how it had extended its intermediate-term downtrend, the wheat complex as a whole shifted gears and rallied. For [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Monday, March 22. Let's recap the soybean basis situation, shall we? Another solid decrease in weekly export inspections (as of Thursday, March 18), down 11% from the previous week because Ships [...]

The euro is in position to post a bullish outside range Monday, indicating it is set to begin Wave 3 of its 5-wave minor (short-term) uptrend pattern. The key will be how it closes today in relation to Friday's close [...]

Early activity, for lack of a better word, in the livestock sector has been interesting though not following what one might've expected. Live cattle are showing a small gain, with the biggest rally posted by nearby April. This could be [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Friday, March 19. Sure, corn got all the attention this week with 4 big sales announced to China, but when the dust had settled it is still soybean basis that continues [...]

To the surprise of no one, or at the most few, the wheat complex could not hold early gains talked about in Friday's Morning Commentary. Recall I wrote, "...it would not be surprising to see renewed pressure build as Friday [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Wednesday, March 18. Short-term demand for US soybeans didn't suddenly go away, as evidenced by the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index strengthening again Thursday The NSBI was calculated at 32.42 cents [...]

As Thursday morning progressed and the grain and oilseed complex headed into intermission, November soybeans took the time to take out support at its previous 4-day low $12.2725 (dashed red line) from March 12. The contract hit an overnight low [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Wednesday, March 17, with the theme of the day being "The more things change, the more they stay the same." For the third consecutive day, the cmdty National Corn Basis Index [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Tuesday, March 16. Tuesday afternoon looks familiar in corn, with a solid rally in futures bolstered by a 0.75 cent stronger inverse in the May-July futures spread and firming national average [...]

The lean hog market wasted no time putting the idea of a possible short-term top to rest (for further discussion, see Tuesday morning's Chart of the Day, "Watch for Falling Hogs"). Not only did the June contract (discussed in Analysis) [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Monday, March 15. There is simply no stopping soybean basis, with the NSBI coming in at 33.73 cents under May futures, 0.47 cent stronger than last Friday. We continue to see [...]

Friday's cmdty National Basis Index calculations have been posted. Corn came in at 16.18 cents under May futures, down 0.14 cent for the day but up 0.07 cent for the week, meaning largely unchanged. Soybean basis was calculated at 34.20 [...]

Thursday's comdty National Basis Index calculations have been posted, with the results relatively tame compared to what we've seen so far this week. Soybean basis firmed again with the NSBI coming in at 34.28 cents under May futures, 0.14 cent [...]

Wednesday's cmdty National Basis Index calculations tell me one thing: I know someone who needs to be on the next flight to Vegas. Around midday a good friend of mine, a broker from central Nebraska, sent me this message: "I [...]

It was a familiar story when cmdty National Basis Indexes were calculated Tuesday afternoon. First and foremost, the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index continues to strengthen, and not by just a little bit. Tuesday saw the NSBI calculated at 34.91 [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Monday, March 8. Leading off is soybeans, with the NSBI immediately grabbing attention as it came in at 35.42 cents under May futures, 0.55 cent stronger than last Friday's calculation of [...]

It was a fitting end to a bullish day when the cmdty National Basis Indexes were calculated Friday afternoon. The cmdty National Corn Basis Index came in at 16.25 cents under May futures, 0.18 cent stronger than Thursday's calculation of [...]

Thursday's update of the cmdty National Basis Indexes were about as expected. My interest was in the soybean index following the wild session we saw in futures spreads. When the numbers were calculated the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index came [...]

Wednesday was another interesting day in the basis markets, highlighted by continued strength in the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI). The NSBI was calculated at 36.85 cents under May futures, 0.36 cents stronger than Tuesday's calculation of 37.21 cents [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Tuesday. The corn index came in at 16.36 cents under May futures, down 0.14 cent from Monday's calculation of 16.22 cents under. This was a bit of a surprise given the [...]

I've attached my spreadsheet to this update to give the official cmdtyView table a chance to adjust its changes after the roll from March futures to May. For example, the cmdty National Corn Basis Index came in at 16.22 cents [...]

The month's final closes have been registered and December corn showed an average daily price of $4.58 while soybeans finished at an average of $11.87. For Dec corn, this was its highest February average since $4.62 from 2014 while soybeans [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, and a look at corn could be enough to make market bulls gulp nervously. The cmdty National Corn Basis Index was calculated at 21.60 cents under March futures This was [...]

If you are looking for a bullish end to a bullish day, look no further than Wednesday's calculation of the cmdty National Basis Indexes. Soybeans led the way with the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index calculated at 38.83 cents under [...]

Tuesday's calculations of the cmdty National Basis Indexes (weighted national averages) have been posted. The corn index was fractionally lower, coming in at 20.24 cents under March futures as compared to Monday's 20.18 cents under. This was counter to the [...]

It was an impressive showing across the board Monday by the cmdty National Basis Indexes: The corn index gained 0.21 cent despite the March-May futures spread seeing its inverse trimmed by 0.5 cent, closing at 0.5 cent However, with delivery [...]

As the calculation period for the 2021 Corn and Soybean Base Price hits the quarter pole (one week remaining in February), November soybeans continue to wide its lead lead over December corn. Daily average closes for the month are showing [...]

There were no major surprises in Friday afternoon's cmdty National Basis Index calculations: Corn basis weakened fractionally, fitting with the weaker inverse in both the March-May and May-July futures spreads Still, the 20.4 cents under March futures is still closer [...]

As I mentioned in Morning Commentary, today's action in the corn (and soybean) May-July futures spread could be important. An given what we seen at midday, it is not a good look for corn market bulls. May has weakened more [...]

A good crowd for the David Larson Financial meeting in Hutchinson, MN this morning. My part starts at 11 (CT). You can watch the meeting live on YouTube at DLFIS Crop Meeting 2021.

There were no big surprises in the latest daily update of the cmdty National Basis Indexes: The Corn Basis Index strengthened ever so slightly to 20.79 cents under March from last Friday's 20.80 cents under. Recall from Afternoon Commentary we [...]

I don't know why, but I find this current temperature map on my cmdtyView system interesting. It looks like nearly all of the United States and Canada is under a massive bluish-purple bruise from the arctic blast that has been [...]

Basis markets closed out the week similar to what we've seen recently, with continued strength in corn and soybeans. While the cmdty National Corn Basis Index showed only a fractional gain once again, coming in at 20.93 cents under March [...]

As we hit February's halftime, fittingly enough marked by the Lunar New Year and a 3-day weekend here in the US, new-corp corn and soybean base prices remain strong. Dec corn has an average daily close of $4.51, as compared [...]

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, with only one minor surprise. The cmdty National Soybean Basis Index strengthened to 41.5 cents under March futures as compared to 41.8 cents under Wednesday. As I mentioned in Afternoon [...]

Yes, both the corn and soybean market are posting solid gains at midday Thursday, but there is a difference in the price activity over the first half of the session. Note corn is up about 1.1%, with the nearby March-May [...]