Export Sales Announcements

2021-05-07T08:12:40-05:00May 7th, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA announced sales of: Corn 2020-2021 86,868 mt (3.4 mb) to unknown destinaitons 2021-2022 101,600 mt (4.0 mb) to unknown destinations 1,360,000 mt (53.5 mb)  to China. Recall Thursday afternoon's Chart of the Day ("Tightening Up") that looked at the [...]

Red Meats

2021-05-06T09:09:32-05:00May 6th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Early activity in the livestock sector shows all three meat markets in the red, led by a 0.7% selloff in lean hogs. As I talked about in Thursday morning's Chart of the Day ("Still Bullish, But..."), the June-August lean hog [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2021-05-05T08:12:14-05:00May 5th, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA announced a number of corn sales Wednesday morning: 2020-2021  140,000 mt (5.5 mb) to China 45,720 mt (1.8 mb) to unknown destinations 2021-2022 101,600 mt (4.0 mb) to unknown destinations 184,100 mt (7.2 mb) to Mexico

Media Timeout

2021-05-05T07:17:06-05:00May 5th, 2021|Quick Takes|

This is a quick timeout to remind you my weekly appearance on RFD TV to talk markets is coming up at 8:45 (CT) Wednesday morning. As always, this tv spot is sponsored by my friends at Barchart. I hope you [...]

Wednesday Update

2021-04-28T05:34:51-05:00April 28th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Good morning everyone. A couple updates for you this morning: Morning Commentary will be posted a bit later than usual. When I fired up the computer this morning it was caught in the middle of an update, so has put [...]

Weather Derivatives

2021-04-27T08:30:12-05:00April 27th, 2021|Quick Takes|

If anyone ever tries to tell you grain futures are NOT weather derivatives, feel free to show them this table. At Tuesday morning's intermission, both new-crop corn and soybean markets had fallen from solid gains to moderate losses, with commercial [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2021-04-27T08:06:47-05:00April 27th, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA announced export sales of 101,600 mt (4.0 mb) of corn to unknown destinations. Of this, 50,800 mt (2.0 mb) are for 2020-2021 and 50,800 mt (2.0 mb) are for 2021-2022.

Early Activity Monday

2021-04-26T09:00:00-05:00April 26th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Here are some of the highlights of activity early Monday: Corn Old-crop May and July are locked the limit 25 cents higher, while hybrid September has hit limit but didn't hold. New-crop December is showing signs of solid buying from [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2021-04-23T08:06:39-05:00April 23rd, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA announced corn export sales of: 2021-2022 Corn: 336,000 mt (13.2 mb) to unknown destinations 136,680 mt (5.4 mb) to Guatemala 2021-2022 Soybeans 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) to China

Technical Difficulties

2021-04-21T05:31:49-05:00April 21st, 2021|Quick Takes|

Hi again everyone. My morning hasn't quite gone as planned, meaning there have been a few technical issues I'm trying to work out. Due to this, Morning Commentary will be posted following the WIBW Ag Issues radio program that runs [...]

Media Schedule

2021-04-21T05:23:04-05:00April 21st, 2021|Quick Takes|

Good morning everyone. I will be doing a couple different media conversations this morning. I will be on the WIBW Radio (Topeka, Kansas) Ag Issues program at 6am (CT). You can find the Listen Live link on the website WIBW.com. [...]

Early Cattle Activity

2021-04-19T09:50:17-05:00April 19th, 2021|Quick Takes|

It's been a tough start to the week for live and feeder cattle, with contracts of both markets extending short-term downtrends on their respective daily charts. Futures spreads are mixed, indicating much of the early selling has come from the [...]

Corn Comparison Question

2021-04-19T07:40:13-05:00April 19th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Shortly after I posted my latest Weekly Column, "Corn Comparisons", Sunday evening I received a simple question via direct message on Twitter, "What about '96 corn?" First, thank you for the question. I truly appreciate you taking the time to [...]

Technical Difficulties

2021-04-16T08:12:05-05:00April 16th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Hi everyone. I've seen and heard there is an issue with the Commentary page on the website this morning. I have my IT group working on it and will let you know as soon as it is corrected. In the [...]

Treasury Trends

2021-04-15T08:51:13-05:00April 15th, 2021|Quick Takes|

I saw a post on Twitter from a regular contributor to CNBC that said, "Gigantic retail sales and bond prices up, hmmm?" She's correct, as both 30-year T-Bonds and 10-year T-Notes are solidly higher after some bullish economic report numbers [...]

Media Timeout

2021-04-14T06:39:21-05:00April 14th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Hi again everyone. A quick media update for you: My weekly market conversation on RFD-TV, sponsored by my friends at Barchart, is coming up this morning at 8:45 (CT). There should be plenty to talk about, as always. I hope you [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2021-04-12T08:07:25-05:00April 12th, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA announced sales of: Soybeans 2020-2021 55,000 mt (2.0) mb to Bangladesh 2021-2022 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) to China. 55,000 mt (2.0 mb) to Bangladesh

Basis Index Update

2021-04-09T16:24:28-05:00April 9th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Friday, April 9. Sometimes all one can do is just tip their cap as a sign of respect, and walk away. How does one react if the futures market posts a [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-04-09T12:00:47-05:00April 8th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, April 8. Spring wheat basis earned the starting nod Thursday afternoon with the cmdty National HRS Wheat Basis Index calculated at 48.58 cents under May Minneapolis futures. This was up 0.95 [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-04-07T16:18:58-05:00April 7th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Wednesday, April 7. As we all know there are some certainties in life: Death, taxes, and as it turns out, strengthening national average corn and soybean basis. The cmdty National Corn [...]

RFD-TV Reminder

2021-04-07T08:30:02-05:00April 7th, 2021|Quick Takes|

My weekly market conversation on RFD-TV, sponsored by my friends at Barchart, is coming up this morning at 8:45 (CT). There should be plenty to talk about, as always. I hope you can join us. And if the conversation raises [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-04-06T16:19:13-05:00April 6th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Tuesday, April 6. Another day, another stronger calculation of the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index with the NSBI coming in at 26.17 cents under May futures Tuesday afternoon. This was up [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-04-05T16:22:48-05:00April 5th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Monday, April 5. The wheat complex lived up to its reputation Monday, for as I said in Afternoon Commentary, "It's wheat, anything can happen." The cmdty National HRW Wheat Basis Index [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-04-01T16:39:51-05:00April 1st, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, April 1. What better way to close out a week like this one than with some wild basis index calculations. Let's start with wheat this time, where all three cmdty [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-31T16:21:06-05:00March 31st, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Wednesday, March 31. We've seen in countless times: the star of the winning team of a major sporting event is asked what he/she is going to next, with the answer "I'm [...]

RFD-TV Reminder

2021-03-31T08:31:20-05:00March 31st, 2021|Quick Takes|

My weekly market conversation on RFD-TV, sponsored by my friends at Barchart, is coming up this morning at 8:45 (CT). There should be plenty to talk about, as always. I hope you can join us. And if the conversation raises [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-30T16:16:59-05:00March 30th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Tuesday, March 30. Soybean basis continues to strengthen with the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index calculated at 28.72 cents under May futures Monday's calculation came in at 29.20 cents under A [...]

Export Sale Announcement

2021-03-30T08:02:45-05:00March 30th, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA announced a sale of 100,800 mt (4.0 mb) of 2020-2021 corn to unknown destinations. This was likely the business that sparked last Friday’s commercial led rally in the futures market.

Basis Index Update

2021-03-29T16:19:49-05:00March 29th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Monday, March 29. It's fitting for the way this Monday played out that HRW wheat basis led the way higher. The cmdty National HRW Wheat Basis Index was calculated at 31.72 [...]

Early Livestock Activity

2021-03-29T08:48:59-05:00March 29th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Though we haven't seen fireworks through the initial minutes of trade in livestock, there as been some interesting activity: June lean hogs quickly fell back into last Friday's gap between $103.55 and $104.55, hitting an initial low of $104.05 before [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-26T16:19:04-05:00March 26th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Friday, March 26. As I mentioned in Afternoon Commentary, the best word to describe corn is "Impressive". May futures closed 6 cents higher The inverse in the May-July future spread strengthened [...]

Soybeans: Midday Meltdown

2021-03-26T11:13:05-05:00March 26th, 2021|Quick Takes|

As I mentioned in Friday's Morning Commentary, the soybean market was vulnerable to a round of commercial selling heading into another South American harvest weekend. With the grain and oilseed complex past the midpoint of its trading day (roughly 11am [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-25T16:19:26-05:00March 25th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, March 25. Stop me if you've heard this one before: The cmdty National Soybean Basis Index strengthened again Thursday. That's right, the NSBI was calculated at 29.64 cents under May [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-24T16:17:14-05:00March 24th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Wednesday, March 24. As expected given Wednesday is a day ending in "y". the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index strengthened again The NSBI was calculated at 30.34 cents under May futures, [...]

RFD-TV Reminder

2021-03-24T08:27:41-05:00March 24th, 2021|Quick Takes|

My weekly market conversation on RFD-TV, sponsored by my friends at Barchart, is coming up this morning at 8:45 (CT). There should be plenty to talk about, as always. I hope you can join us. And if the conversation raises [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-23T16:29:20-05:00March 23rd, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Tuesday, March 23. To the surprise of no one, the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index strengthened again Tuesday afternoon. The NSBI was calculated at 30.64 cents under May futures as compared [...]

Grain Farmers of Ontario: March Classic

2021-03-23T06:57:59-05:00March 23rd, 2021|Quick Takes|

Good morning everyone. I will be part of a Grain Market Panel Discussion this morning at 9:40 (ET). To view the discussion and take part in the Q&A afterward you can join here: Grain Farmers of Ontario March Classic A [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-22T16:18:40-05:00March 22nd, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Monday, March 22. Let's recap the soybean basis situation, shall we? Another solid decrease in weekly export inspections (as of Thursday, March 18), down 11% from the previous week because Ships [...]

RFD-TV Appearance

2021-03-22T09:32:31-05:00March 22nd, 2021|Quick Takes|

I will be talking markets on RFD-TV this morning at 10:45 (CT), sponsored by my friends at Barchart. As always, there should be plenty to talk about with host John Jenkinson. I hope you can join us. And if the [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-19T16:18:57-05:00March 19th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Friday, March 19. Sure, corn got all the attention this week with 4 big sales announced to China, but when the dust had settled it is still soybean basis that continues [...]

Wheat Being Wheat

2021-03-19T08:14:39-05:00March 19th, 2021|Quick Takes|

To the surprise of no one, or at the most few, the wheat complex could not hold early gains talked about in Friday's Morning Commentary. Recall I wrote, "...it would not be surprising to see renewed pressure build as Friday [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-18T16:23:44-05:00March 18th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Wednesday, March 18. Short-term demand for US soybeans didn't suddenly go away, as evidenced by the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index strengthening again Thursday The NSBI was calculated at 32.42 cents [...]

Export Sale Announcement

2021-03-18T08:03:47-05:00March 18th, 2021|Quick Takes|

As expected based on Wednesday’s corn market activity, USDA announced a sale of 696,000 mt (27.4 mb) of 2020-2021 corn to China. For the week: Tuesday: 45.5 mb Wednesday: 48.2 mb Thursday: 27.4 mb Total: 121.1 mb of announced sales

Basis Index Update

2021-03-17T16:17:57-05:00March 17th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Wednesday, March 17, with the theme of the day being "The more things change, the more they stay the same." For the third consecutive day, the cmdty National Corn Basis Index [...]

RFD-TV Reminder

2021-03-17T08:30:23-05:00March 17th, 2021|Quick Takes|

My weekly market conversation on RFD-TV, sponsored by my friends at Barchart, is coming up this morning at 8:45 (CT). There should be plenty to talk about, as always. I hope you can join us. And if the conversation raises [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-16T16:18:54-05:00March 16th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Tuesday, March 16. Tuesday afternoon looks familiar in corn, with a solid rally in futures bolstered by a 0.75 cent stronger inverse in the May-July futures spread and firming national average [...]

Export Sale Announcement

2021-03-16T08:07:29-05:00March 16th, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA reported a sale of 1,156,000 mt (45.5 mb) of 2020-2021 corn to China. This answers the question as to why the May-July corn futures spread saw its inverse strengthen as much as it did Monday.

Basis Index Update

2021-03-15T16:19:47-05:00March 15th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Monday, March 15. There is simply no stopping soybean basis, with the NSBI coming in at 33.73 cents under May futures, 0.47 cent stronger than last Friday. We continue to see [...]

RFD-TV Appearance

2021-03-15T10:30:19-05:00March 15th, 2021|Quick Takes|

I will be talking markets on RFD-TV this morning at 10:45 (CT), sponsored by my friends at Barchart. As always, there should be plenty to talk about with host John Jenkinson. I hope you can join us. And if the [...]

CME Position Limits Plans

2021-03-15T08:13:19-05:00March 15th, 2021|Quick Takes|

This is just a reminder the CME is planning to increase speculative position limits on its agricultural products, and as of this writing, I have not heard any different. Corn All months combined from 33,000 contracts to 57,800 contracts Soybeans [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-12T16:29:13-06:00March 12th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Friday's cmdty National Basis Index calculations have been posted. Corn came in at 16.18 cents under May futures, down 0.14 cent for the day but up 0.07 cent for the week, meaning largely unchanged. Soybean basis was calculated at 34.20 [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-11T16:18:04-06:00March 11th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Thursday's comdty National Basis Index calculations have been posted, with the results relatively tame compared to what we've seen so far this week. Soybean basis firmed again with the NSBI coming in at 34.28 cents under May futures, 0.14 cent [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-10T16:19:52-06:00March 10th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Wednesday's cmdty National Basis Index calculations tell me one thing: I know someone who needs to be on the next flight to Vegas. Around midday a good friend of mine, a broker from central Nebraska, sent me this message: "I [...]

RFD-TV Reminder

2021-03-10T08:23:41-06:00March 10th, 2021|Quick Takes|

My weekly market conversation on RFD-TV, sponsored by my friends at Barchart, is coming up this morning at 8:45 (CT). There should be plenty to talk about, as always. I hope you can join us. And if the conversation raises [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-09T16:32:12-06:00March 9th, 2021|Quick Takes|

It was a familiar story when cmdty National Basis Indexes were calculated Tuesday afternoon. First and foremost, the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index continues to strengthen, and not by just a little bit. Tuesday saw the NSBI calculated at 34.91 [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-08T16:24:12-06:00March 8th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Monday, March 8. Leading off is soybeans, with the NSBI immediately grabbing attention as it came in at 35.42 cents under May futures, 0.55 cent stronger than last Friday's calculation of [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-05T16:19:41-06:00March 5th, 2021|Quick Takes|

It was a fitting end to a bullish day when the cmdty National Basis Indexes were calculated Friday afternoon. The cmdty National Corn Basis Index came in at 16.25 cents under May futures, 0.18 cent stronger than Thursday's calculation of [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-04T16:20:10-06:00March 4th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Thursday's update of the cmdty National Basis Indexes were about as expected. My interest was in the soybean index following the wild session we saw in futures spreads. When the numbers were calculated the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index came [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-03T16:20:32-06:00March 3rd, 2021|Quick Takes|

Wednesday was another interesting day in the basis markets, highlighted by continued strength in the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI). The NSBI was calculated at 36.85 cents under May futures, 0.36 cents stronger than Tuesday's calculation of 37.21 cents [...]

RFD-TV Reminder

2021-03-03T08:10:52-06:00March 3rd, 2021|Quick Takes|

My weekly market conversation on RFD-TV, sponsored by my friends at Barchart, is coming up this morning at 8:45 (CT). There should be plenty to talk about, as always. I hope you can join us. And if the conversation raises [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-02T16:25:47-06:00March 2nd, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Tuesday. The corn index came in at 16.36 cents under May futures, down 0.14 cent from Monday's calculation of 16.22 cents under. This was a bit of a surprise given the [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-03-01T16:54:02-06:00March 1st, 2021|Quick Takes|

I've attached my spreadsheet to this update to give the official cmdtyView table a chance to adjust its changes after the roll from March futures to May. For example, the cmdty National Corn Basis Index came in at 16.22 cents [...]

Weekly Analysis Update

2021-02-28T14:12:02-06:00February 28th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Given this weekend is the end of the month, and I've updated a number of long-term monthly charts, I won't be posting any weekly analysis. However, these will start up again next weekend. In the meantime, if you have any [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-02-25T16:27:27-06:00February 25th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, and a look at corn could be enough to make market bulls gulp nervously. The cmdty National Corn Basis Index was calculated at 21.60 cents under March futures This was [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-02-24T16:30:21-06:00February 24th, 2021|Quick Takes|

If you are looking for a bullish end to a bullish day, look no further than Wednesday's calculation of the cmdty National Basis Indexes. Soybeans led the way with the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index calculated at 38.83 cents under [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-02-23T16:46:11-06:00February 23rd, 2021|Quick Takes|

Tuesday's calculations of the cmdty National Basis Indexes (weighted national averages) have been posted. The corn index was fractionally lower, coming in at 20.24 cents under March futures as compared to Monday's 20.18 cents under. This was counter to the [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-02-22T16:40:03-06:00February 22nd, 2021|Quick Takes|

It was an impressive showing across the board Monday by the cmdty National Basis Indexes: The corn index gained 0.21 cent despite the March-May futures spread seeing its inverse trimmed by 0.5 cent, closing at 0.5 cent However, with delivery [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-02-19T16:23:17-06:00February 19th, 2021|Quick Takes|

There were no major surprises in Friday afternoon's cmdty National Basis Index calculations: Corn basis weakened fractionally, fitting with the weaker inverse in both the March-May and May-July futures spreads Still, the 20.4 cents under March futures is still closer [...]

Thursday’s Meeting

2021-02-19T06:36:20-06:00February 19th, 2021|Quick Takes|

As I said in Morning Commentary, I am back in the office Friday morning after a quick trip to Minnesota to speak at a meeting for David Larson Financial and Insurance Services. Here's the YouTube link to the recorded livestream [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-02-16T16:17:24-06:00February 16th, 2021|Quick Takes|

There were no big surprises in the latest daily update of the cmdty National Basis Indexes: The Corn Basis Index strengthened ever so slightly to 20.79 cents under March from last Friday's 20.80 cents under. Recall from Afternoon Commentary we [...]

It’s Cold

2021-02-16T07:49:56-06:00February 16th, 2021|Quick Takes|

I just wanted to update you that the power here at Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. could be shut off over the course of the day. Omaha Public Power District (OPPD) just announced controlled outages this morning, and will be updating [...]

Bruising Cold

2021-02-15T10:33:56-06:00February 15th, 2021|Quick Takes|

I don't know why, but I find this current temperature map on my cmdtyView system interesting. It looks like nearly all of the United States and Canada is under a massive bluish-purple bruise from the arctic blast that has been [...]

Daily Basis Index Update

2021-02-12T16:24:21-06:00February 12th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Basis markets closed out the week similar to what we've seen recently, with continued strength in corn and soybeans. While the cmdty National Corn Basis Index showed only a fractional gain once again, coming in at 20.93 cents under March [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2021-02-12T08:07:09-06:00February 12th, 2021|Quick Takes|

And now for something a little different: USDA/FAS announced corn sales of: 195,338 mt (7.7 mb) to Costa Ricca 135,644 mt (5.3 mb) for 2020-2021 59,694 mt (2.4 mb) for 2021-2022 115,577 mt (4.5 mb) to Guatemala for 2020-2021

Daily Basis Index Update

2021-02-11T16:35:46-06:00February 11th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, with only one minor surprise. The cmdty National Soybean Basis Index strengthened to 41.5 cents under March futures as compared to 41.8 cents under Wednesday. As I mentioned in Afternoon [...]

Midday Update

2021-02-11T10:58:04-06:00February 11th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Yes, both the corn and soybean market are posting solid gains at midday Thursday, but there is a difference in the price activity over the first half of the session. Note corn is up about 1.1%, with the nearby March-May [...]

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