The month's final closes have been registered and December corn showed an average daily price of $4.58 while soybeans finished at an average of $11.87. For Dec corn, this was its highest February average since $4.62 from 2014 while soybeans [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Friday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, and a look at corn could be enough to make market bulls gulp nervously. The cmdty National Corn Basis Index was calculated at 21.60 cents under March futures This was [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Thursday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
If you are looking for a bullish end to a bullish day, look no further than Wednesday's calculation of the cmdty National Basis Indexes. Soybeans led the way with the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index calculated at 38.83 cents under [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Wednesday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
Tuesday's calculations of the cmdty National Basis Indexes (weighted national averages) have been posted. The corn index was fractionally lower, coming in at 20.24 cents under March futures as compared to Monday's 20.18 cents under. This was counter to the [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Tuesday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
It was an impressive showing across the board Monday by the cmdty National Basis Indexes: The corn index gained 0.21 cent despite the March-May futures spread seeing its inverse trimmed by 0.5 cent, closing at 0.5 cent However, with delivery [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Monday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
As the calculation period for the 2021 Corn and Soybean Base Price hits the quarter pole (one week remaining in February), November soybeans continue to wide its lead lead over December corn. Daily average closes for the month are showing [...]
There were no major surprises in Friday afternoon's cmdty National Basis Index calculations: Corn basis weakened fractionally, fitting with the weaker inverse in both the March-May and May-July futures spreads Still, the 20.4 cents under March futures is still closer [...]
As I mentioned in Morning Commentary, today's action in the corn (and soybean) May-July futures spread could be important. An given what we seen at midday, it is not a good look for corn market bulls. May has weakened more [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Friday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
As I said in Morning Commentary, I am back in the office Friday morning after a quick trip to Minnesota to speak at a meeting for David Larson Financial and Insurance Services. Here's the YouTube link to the recorded livestream [...]
A good crowd for the David Larson Financial meeting in Hutchinson, MN this morning. My part starts at 11 (CT). You can watch the meeting live on YouTube at DLFIS Crop Meeting 2021.
As of 8:05 (CT) Thursday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
As of 8:05 (CT) Wednesday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
There were no big surprises in the latest daily update of the cmdty National Basis Indexes: The Corn Basis Index strengthened ever so slightly to 20.79 cents under March from last Friday's 20.80 cents under. Recall from Afternoon Commentary we [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Tuesday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
I just wanted to update you that the power here at Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. could be shut off over the course of the day. Omaha Public Power District (OPPD) just announced controlled outages this morning, and will be updating [...]
I don't know why, but I find this current temperature map on my cmdtyView system interesting. It looks like nearly all of the United States and Canada is under a massive bluish-purple bruise from the arctic blast that has been [...]
Basis markets closed out the week similar to what we've seen recently, with continued strength in corn and soybeans. While the cmdty National Corn Basis Index showed only a fractional gain once again, coming in at 20.93 cents under March [...]
As we hit February's halftime, fittingly enough marked by the Lunar New Year and a 3-day weekend here in the US, new-corp corn and soybean base prices remain strong. Dec corn has an average daily close of $4.51, as compared [...]
And now for something a little different: USDA/FAS announced corn sales of: 195,338 mt (7.7 mb) to Costa Ricca 135,644 mt (5.3 mb) for 2020-2021 59,694 mt (2.4 mb) for 2021-2022 115,577 mt (4.5 mb) to Guatemala for 2020-2021
The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, with only one minor surprise. The cmdty National Soybean Basis Index strengthened to 41.5 cents under March futures as compared to 41.8 cents under Wednesday. As I mentioned in Afternoon [...]
Yes, both the corn and soybean market are posting solid gains at midday Thursday, but there is a difference in the price activity over the first half of the session. Note corn is up about 1.1%, with the nearby March-May [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Thursday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
We need to keep a close eye on remaining old-crop corn and soybean bushels to be sold, as well as new-crop opportunities. As I talked about in Wednesday morning's Chart of the Day, "Reversal Type", there are a number of [...]
USDA/FAS announced a cancellation of 132,000 mt (5.2 mb) of 2020-2021 corn sales to unknown destinations.
Let's take a quick look at some of the more interesting numbers in USDA's February Supply and Demand reports: Corn Chinese Corn Stocks: Increased by 4.5 mmt to 196.18 US Corn exports increased by 50 mb to 2.6 bb Soybeans [...]
The cotton market has made a strong move Tuesday morning with the old-crop March contract gaining as much as 2.84 cents and sitting 2.37 cents (2.8%) higher when I grabbed this screenshot. Trailing at a distance, but still impressive, is [...]
I just read an interesting article posted by Karen Braun of Reuters. The prelude talks about how the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) recently cut 54 mmt off China's corn stocks figure, putting it at 139 [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Tuesday morning, there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
As of 8:05 (CT) Monday morning, there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
The end of Groundhog week brings with it the first update of my 2021 Corn and Soybean Insurance Base Price table. With the first five days in the books the average daily closing price for December corn was $4.50, a [...]
Export Sales: USDA/FAS announced a sale of 101,600 mt (4.0 mb) of 2020-2021 corn to unknown destinations.
As of 8:05 (CT) Thursday morning, there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
As of 8:05 (CT) Wednesday morning, there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
I just heard from a good friend who now watches moves in futures spreads closely. He pointed out to me the May-July soybean spread popped through 20 cents inverse Wednesday morning, taking out previous intraday highs along the way. I [...]
Export Sales: USDA/FAS announced a corn sale of 115,000 mt (4.5 mb) to Mexico for 2020-2021. Remember: Monday saw a late round of commercial buying rally corn to a modestly higher close, led by March gaining on the May contract.
Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, meaning six more weeks of winter. More importantly, given the averages we've seen develop over the previous 15 years Phil's shadow projects a 3.7% increase in US soybean planted acres and a 2.1% decrease in [...]
USDA/FAS announced sales of: Corn 2020-2021 125,730 mt (4.9 mb) to Mexico 110,000 mt (4.3 mb) to Japan Soybean Meal 2020-2021 133,000 mt to the Philippines.
Good morning everyone. Not only is this the first day of the last day of winter, according to the meteorological calendar, it is also the beginning of Groundhog Week here at Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. What is Groundhog Week, you [...]
Working my way through Friday's Afternoon Commentary, with an interesting panel discussion regarding short-selling being held on CNBC. While you wait, feel free to reread my Weekly Column from November 19, 2018, "Beware of the Naked Man".
USDA/FAS announced sales of: Corn 2020-2021 2,108,000 mt (83.0 mb) to China Putting total sales for this week at 242.5 mb Soybeans 2021-2022 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) also to China
USDA/FAS announced corn sales of 1,700,000 mt (66.9 mb) to China and 213,600 mt (8.4 mb) to unknown destinations, both for 2020-2021. This has been a big week for corn sales to China and unknown destinations, certainly fitting with what [...]
As I was writing Morning Commentary Thursday Morning, I thought of a number of my Rules and Theories that could come into play over the coming days, weeks, and months. Rules Rule #4A: A market that can't go down, won't [...]
As my friends have always told me, I have a great face for radio. With that in mind, here is the link to Wednesday morning's WIBW Radio (Topeka, KS) Ag Issues program: https://t.co/zBkHVWZJOj?amp=1 I've worked with the folks at WIBW [...]
And here's some of the "Why" to Tuesday's commercial buying "What": USDA/FAS announced sales of: Corn 2020-2021 680,000 mt (26.8 mb)to China. Soybeans 2020-2021 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) to China 126,500 mt (4.6 mb) to unknown destinations
I think it's safe to say the commercial side of the soybean market is not convinced recent rains and cooler temperatures across South America here in late January (the equivalent of late July in North America) have solved the global [...]
USDA/FAS announced corn sales of 2020-2021 1,360,000 mt (53.5 mb) to China 102,800 mt (4.0 mb) to unknown destinations This is what the commercial-led rally in corn Sunday night through most of Monday was implying. Keep in mind, though, commercial [...]
As I mentioned in Morning Commentary, commercial activity was going to be important following last week's meltdown in the grain and oilseed complex. The early results in soybeans show this group has returned as active buyers, with nearby contracts gaining [...]
As of 8:05 (CT) Monday morning there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
Early activity in the livestock sector is a bit more subdued than I was expecting Friday morning. Both live and feeder cattle markets are seeing light commercial buying interest so far, though we still have some hurdles to navigate before [...]
USDA announced export sales of: Soybeans 136,000 mt (5.0 mb) of 2020-2021 soybeans to China Grain sorghum (Milo) 123,000 mt (4.8 mb) of grain sorghum to China 60,000 mt (2.4 mb) for 2020-2021 63,000 mt (also roughly 2.4 mb) for [...]
Good afternoon everyone. We are looking at adding something new to the website: A Friday afternoon market wrap (not rap) video. Here's what I need you to do: Just as you do now, send me some questions or topics you'd [...]
Export Sales: USDA announced export sales of soybeans of 136,000 mt (5.0 mb) to China and 163,290 mt (6.0 mb) to Mexico, both for 2020-2021. Also, 138,000 mt (5.1 mb) of hard red winter wheat to Nigeria for 2021-2022 and [...]
As of 8:05 am (CT) Wednesday there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
Just received a message that made me chuckle hard enough, I have to share. A good friend from Minnesota just asked, "Corn and beans won't go to $3.50 and $8.50 today, will they?" He attached a smiley face letting me [...]
A good friend just sent me a message that read, "Interesting move in the Feb-April live cattle spread...", and it certainly has been. While live cattle futures in general are jumping to start the week, Feb is losing almost $0.50 [...]
USDA announced export sales of: Corn 2020-2021 128,000 mt (5.0 mb) to Japan 100,000 mt (3.9 mb) to Israel Soybeans: 2021-2022 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) to China.
But I am at the keyboard working on some weekend projects if you would like to talk markets.
This is a reminder ag markets remain closed Sunday evening due to Monday's US Federal holiday. They will open again Monday evening at 7 (CT).
cmdty National Average Basis Indexes for Friday, January 15: Corn: 22 cents under March futures, 0.3 cent weaker for the day, below previous low of 21.8 cents under from December 1. Soybeans: 44.2 cents under March futures, 0.3 cent stronger [...]
USDA announced export sales of 110,000 mt (4.3 mb) of 2020-2021 corn to Mexico 318,000 mt (11.7 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to unknown destinations
One of the things I truly appreciate about audience we have all collectively built together on this website, is the conversations surrounding real market indicators. I just got off the phone with a gentleman following a discussion about real fundamental [...]
As of 8:05 am (CT) Thursday there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
My apologies. There were export sales announced Wednesday morning. I am having trouble with the USDA/FAS website this week. USDA announced sales of: Soybeans 464,000 mt (17.1 mb) to unknown destinations 396,000 mt (14.6 mb) for 2020-2021 68,000 mt (2.5 [...]
All Wheat (Q2): 1.674 bb Corn (Q1): 11.322 bb Soybeans (Q1): 2.933 bb Grain Sorghum (Q1): 219 mb
USDA announced sales of 120,000 mt (4.4 mb) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2020-2021 marketing year.
USDA announced sales of: Soybeans 2020-2021: 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) to China Corn 2020-2021: 108,500 mt (4.0 mb) to Colombia
There were export sales announcements Thursday Soybeans Unknown Destinations 2020-2021: 213,350 mt (7.8 mb) 2021-2022: 130,000 mt (4.8 mb) Friday: Soybeans China 2020-2021: 204,000 mt (7.5 mb)
As of 8:05 am (CT) Thursday there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
It's an interesting weather map midday Wednesday with a winter storm hovering over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Recall from previous discussions this is one of the driest areas across the US Midwest, and a month into winter the situation [...]
USDA announced a sale of 102,616 mt (4.0 mb) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2020-2021 marketing year.
As I mentioned earlier, crude oil was posting a rally of almost 5% Tuesday. A look at changes in futures prices gave us the what: Commercial traders were providing some of the support. CNBC's Brian Sullivan just broke news that [...]
A friend just sent me this message, and he is absolutely right. Soybeans are 3.4% higher Corn is up 1.7% Wheat has rallied 2.8% Cotton is up 1.7% Live Cattle have gained 2.5% Feeders are flying 1.7% higher Lean Hogs [...]
As of 8:05 am (CT) Tuesday there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
I had a great question come in already this morning. Q: What would be the best buy at this time: Bitcoin Tesla Soybeans A: In my opinion, and my son Ben might disagree with me, soybeans are the best buy, [...]
As of 8:05 am (CT) Monday there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
As I get ready to shut the office down for the last time for 2020, I want to take a moment to thank all of you for this last year. It was one of the most difficult I can remember [...]
As of 8:05 am (CT) Thursday there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
I just got off the phone with a reporter friend of mine, Matthew Weaver of Capital Press, and he asked me my thoughts on the wheat complex. I had to be honest with him, saying I am just as surprised [...]
As of 8:05 am (CT) Wednesday there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
Just as Monday's session saw soybeans trade higher overnight before collapsing shortly after the opening bell, contracts pulled off the flip side of the coin Tuesday. After trading lower overnight, contracts stormed out of the gate to impressive double-digit gains [...]
As of 8:05 am (CT) Tuesday there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
The loud sucking sound you hear in the soybean market early Monday is a strong vacuum pulling the market lower. Recall from previous discussions, a Vacuum Trade occurs when a market has posted a strong move, cleaning up all available [...]
USDA announced export sales of: Soybeans to unknown destinations 233,700 mt (8.6 mb) 2020-2021 marketing year 125,000 mt (4.6 mb) 2021-2022 marketing year Both likely part of last week’s strong move in futures spreads Soybean oil to unknown destinations 33,000 [...]
Good afternoon everyone. I hope you are enjoying a good holiday weekend, with another to follow next week. I won't be posting all the Weekly Analysis this weekend, but did want to give you a couple updates: Nearly every market/contract [...]
As of 8:05 am (CT) Thursday there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
As of 8:05 am (CT) Wednesday there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
After falling as much as 6.5 cents Tuesday morning, both January and March soybean contracts are making a midday run at unchanged. Time will tell if this is nothing more than just a Noon Balloon, meaning the market falls back [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT) Tuesday there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
As of 8:10 am (CT) Monday there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
As of 8:10 am (CT) Friday there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
"...What it is ain't exactly clear." The soybean market exploded at 11:30 (CT), and as usual I'm not sure "why". Thursday started with forecasts of better chances of rain across parts of Brazil. Weekly export sales and shipments were large, [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT) there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
As of 8:10 am (CT) there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
As we move into the last couple hours of trade Tuesday, the soybean market has posted a solid rally off its early lows. As of 11:30-ish (CT) futures spreads are showing renewed commercial buying interest. As I've said many times, [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT) there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
As of 8:10 am (CT) there were no new export sales announcements posted on the USDA/FAS website.
USDA announced an export sale of 130,000 mt of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines.
As I mentioned in Friday's Morning Commentary, the red numbers initially posted by the energy complex weren't likely to hold, and hold they did not. A quick scan of this summary sheet shows only RBOB gasoline still dawdling in the [...]
USDA announced an export sale of 344,442 mt (13.6 mb) of corn to Mexico.
One of the things I just talked about during my weekly market conversation on RFD TV, sponsored by my friends at Barchart, was soybeans look to be in a vacuum trade early Wednesday. What do I mean by Vacuum Trade? [...]
USDA announced an export sale of 257,071 mt (10.1 mb) of corn to Mexico.
I wanted to quickly point out one of my favorite parts of tracking futures spreads via cmdtyView Cost of Carry tables: When these spreads grow more bullish, or turn from green (carry) to red (inverse), initiating how a chili pepper [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT) there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
I mentioned in Morning Commentary how the US dollar index had traded higher overnight, reaching a high of 91.23. However, as the sun rose on a new week the dollar sank, and is now back below unchanged and well below [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT) there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
Now that our app is up and running and ag markets are in the off-season, generally, Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. is in the process of making Weekly Analysis more relevant. Recall from my latest Weekly Column, "Confidence Man", that market [...]
USDA announced a corn sale of 182,020 mt (7.2 mb) to Mexico.
A quick look at the November Jobs data I mentioned in Friday's Morning Commentary: Nonfarm Payroll +245,000 versus the expected +432,000 and last month's +638,000 Unemployment Rate 6.7% versus the expected 6.8% and last month's 6.9% Not much reaction by [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT) there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
We are very excited to announce that our app is now live in the Apple App store as well as Google Play. We would like to thank everyone for their patience as we know how important convenience to our information [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT) there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
As of 8:10 am (CT) there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
Friday, November 27: USDA announced a sale of 302,160 mt (11.9 mb) of corn to Mexico. Monday, November 30: USDA announced corn sales to unknown destinations of: 140,000 mt (5.5 mb) 204,000 mt (8.0 mb)
Good morning everyone and welcome back to what should be a busy week on this website. I want to thank all of you as I was able to take a few days off through the weekend. Feeling refreshed as we [...]
Hi again everyone. I wanted to let you know this will be my last scheduled post of the day, as I'm planning on taking the rest of the week off to spend time with family. I'll still be around if [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT) there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
Roughly an hour into Tuesday's session and we have a clear picture of what is going on in soybeans: The double-digit selloff across the board for the 2020-2021 contracts (Jan 2020 through July 2021) indicates noncommercial traders are liquidating some [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT), there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
The livestock sector is off and running again this week led by a strong $2.85 rally in January feeders. Live cattle are also roughly $1.00 higher, though we continue to see commercial selling in the February contract, as indicated by [...]
USDA announced corn export sales of 334,000 mt (13.1 mb) to unknown destinations.
USDA announced corn export sales of 158,270 mt (6.2 mb) to Mexico and 131,000 mt (5.2 mb) to unknown destinations.
This is an update to the Quick Take I posted Wednesday, when contracts had held support at previous 4-day lows through the day's close. Within the first hour of Thursday's session, though, the January, March, and April issues all broke [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT), there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
I've been tracking a couple different feeder cattle contracts closely in Charts of the Day, with both January and April looking to b in minor (short-term) downtrends. For both, key support is at the 4-day lows of $136.725 (Jan) and [...]
USDA announced a sale of 140,000 mt (5.5 mb) of corn to unknown destinations.
The last couple days, I've posted a look at the soybean cost of carry table that first showed the carry using the November contract as it went off the board, then the carry posted by the Jan-March spread at Monday's [...]
USDA announced a sale of 195,000 mt (7.7 mb) of corn to Mexico.
I wanted to post a quick update of the soybean Cost of Carry table I initially posted last Friday. Note the Jan-March spread has moved into a small carry of 0.75 cent after closing at par last Friday. Recall the [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT), there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
As I've mentioned over the last couple weeks, I was looking forward to where the historic November 2020 contract would go off the board on Friday, November 13. We now know its final tick was $11.4150, an unimaginable price just [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT), there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
I just happened to be in the right spot at the right time to grab this screenshot of the soybean cost of carry table. The most fascinating aspect, other than the November issue now showing a carry (green numbers) to [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT), there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
A good friend just sent me this message, "The Dec-March corn spread is knockin' on the door of 9.0 cents...", and of course I thought of Bob Dylan's classic song. As I've been talking about for a while now in [...]
As of 8:10 am (CT), there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
Tuesday morning has seen an impressive round of commercial buying in soybeans, with the January issue gaining 2 cents on March, while fractional gains are being registered in deferred issues. Trade volume is solid with 60,000 contracts of January changing [...]
USDA announced sales of 130,000 mt (5.1 mb) of corn to South Korea.
USDA announced a sale of 123,000 mt (4.5 mb) of soybeans to unknown destinations.
It has been an incredible morning in global stock markets, with the last hour seeing news breaking of Pfizer's vaccine being 90% effective. Reportedly, experts thought 10% to 15% would've been exceptional. US stock index futures have exploded with the [...]
We are living through a fascinating week here in the US, a week when many of the frailties of our system of government are highlighted. These same frailties shine a spotlight on the metals markets, generally viewed as safe-haven markets [...]
There were a number of sales announced by USDA/FAS Friday morning: Soybeans 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) to China 272,150 mt (10.0 mb) to unknown destinations Corn 206,900 mt (8.1 mb) to unknown destinations Soybean Oil 30,000 mt to South Korea [...]
USDA announced sales of: 106,000 mt (4.2 mb) of sorghum to China 33,000 mt of soybean oil to India
As of 8:10 (CT) there were no new export sales announcements on the USDA/FAS website.
