Basis Index Update

2021-02-25T16:27:27-06:00February 25th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, and a look at corn could be enough to make market bulls gulp nervously. The cmdty National Corn Basis Index was calculated at 21.60 cents under March futures This was [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-02-24T16:30:21-06:00February 24th, 2021|Quick Takes|

If you are looking for a bullish end to a bullish day, look no further than Wednesday's calculation of the cmdty National Basis Indexes. Soybeans led the way with the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index calculated at 38.83 cents under [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-02-23T16:46:11-06:00February 23rd, 2021|Quick Takes|

Tuesday's calculations of the cmdty National Basis Indexes (weighted national averages) have been posted. The corn index was fractionally lower, coming in at 20.24 cents under March futures as compared to Monday's 20.18 cents under. This was counter to the [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-02-22T16:40:03-06:00February 22nd, 2021|Quick Takes|

It was an impressive showing across the board Monday by the cmdty National Basis Indexes: The corn index gained 0.21 cent despite the March-May futures spread seeing its inverse trimmed by 0.5 cent, closing at 0.5 cent However, with delivery [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-02-19T16:23:17-06:00February 19th, 2021|Quick Takes|

There were no major surprises in Friday afternoon's cmdty National Basis Index calculations: Corn basis weakened fractionally, fitting with the weaker inverse in both the March-May and May-July futures spreads Still, the 20.4 cents under March futures is still closer [...]

Thursday’s Meeting

2021-02-19T06:36:20-06:00February 19th, 2021|Quick Takes|

As I said in Morning Commentary, I am back in the office Friday morning after a quick trip to Minnesota to speak at a meeting for David Larson Financial and Insurance Services. Here's the YouTube link to the recorded livestream [...]

Basis Index Update

2021-02-16T16:17:24-06:00February 16th, 2021|Quick Takes|

There were no big surprises in the latest daily update of the cmdty National Basis Indexes: The Corn Basis Index strengthened ever so slightly to 20.79 cents under March from last Friday's 20.80 cents under. Recall from Afternoon Commentary we [...]

It’s Cold

2021-02-16T07:49:56-06:00February 16th, 2021|Quick Takes|

I just wanted to update you that the power here at Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. could be shut off over the course of the day. Omaha Public Power District (OPPD) just announced controlled outages this morning, and will be updating [...]

Bruising Cold

2021-02-15T10:33:56-06:00February 15th, 2021|Quick Takes|

I don't know why, but I find this current temperature map on my cmdtyView system interesting. It looks like nearly all of the United States and Canada is under a massive bluish-purple bruise from the arctic blast that has been [...]

Daily Basis Index Update

2021-02-12T16:24:21-06:00February 12th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Basis markets closed out the week similar to what we've seen recently, with continued strength in corn and soybeans. While the cmdty National Corn Basis Index showed only a fractional gain once again, coming in at 20.93 cents under March [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2021-02-12T08:07:09-06:00February 12th, 2021|Quick Takes|

And now for something a little different: USDA/FAS announced corn sales of: 195,338 mt (7.7 mb) to Costa Ricca 135,644 mt (5.3 mb) for 2020-2021 59,694 mt (2.4 mb) for 2021-2022 115,577 mt (4.5 mb) to Guatemala for 2020-2021

Daily Basis Index Update

2021-02-11T16:35:46-06:00February 11th, 2021|Quick Takes|

The cmdty National Basis Indexes have been calculated for Thursday, with only one minor surprise. The cmdty National Soybean Basis Index strengthened to 41.5 cents under March futures as compared to 41.8 cents under Wednesday. As I mentioned in Afternoon [...]

Midday Update

2021-02-11T10:58:04-06:00February 11th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Yes, both the corn and soybean market are posting solid gains at midday Thursday, but there is a difference in the price activity over the first half of the session. Note corn is up about 1.1%, with the nearby March-May [...]

Warning Signs

2021-02-10T10:18:50-06:00February 10th, 2021|Quick Takes|

We need to keep a close eye on remaining old-crop corn and soybean bushels to be sold, as well as new-crop opportunities. As I talked about in Wednesday morning's Chart of the Day, "Reversal Type", there are a number of [...]

USDA: February’s Imaginary Numbers

2021-02-09T11:08:21-06:00February 9th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Let's take a quick look at some of the more interesting numbers in USDA's February Supply and Demand reports: Corn Chinese Corn Stocks: Increased by 4.5 mmt to 196.18 US Corn exports increased by 50 mb to 2.6 bb Soybeans [...]

More Corn Stocks Questions

2021-02-09T08:17:56-06:00February 9th, 2021|Quick Takes|

I just read an interesting article posted by Karen Braun of Reuters. The prelude talks about how the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) recently cut 54 mmt off China's corn stocks figure, putting it at 139 [...]

Export Sale Announcement

2021-02-02T08:09:31-06:00February 2nd, 2021|Quick Takes|

Export Sales: USDA/FAS announced a corn sale of 115,000 mt (4.5 mb) to Mexico for 2020-2021. Remember: Monday saw a late round of commercial buying rally corn to a modestly higher close, led by March gaining on the May contract.

And the Verdict Is…

2021-02-02T06:36:47-06:00February 2nd, 2021|Quick Takes|

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, meaning six more weeks of winter. More importantly, given the averages we've seen develop over the previous 15 years Phil's shadow projects a 3.7% increase in US soybean planted acres and a 2.1% decrease in [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2021-02-01T08:08:10-06:00February 1st, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA/FAS announced sales of: Corn 2020-2021 125,730 mt (4.9 mb) to Mexico 110,000 mt (4.3 mb) to Japan Soybean Meal 2020-2021 133,000 mt to the Philippines.

Welcome to Groundhog Week!

2021-02-01T05:07:23-06:00February 1st, 2021|Quick Takes|

Good morning everyone. Not only is this the first day of the last day of winter, according to the meteorological calendar, it is also the beginning of Groundhog Week here at Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. What is Groundhog Week, you [...]

Naked and Afraid

2021-01-29T16:14:18-06:00January 29th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Working my way through Friday's Afternoon Commentary, with an interesting panel discussion regarding short-selling being held on CNBC. While you wait, feel free to reread my Weekly Column from November 19, 2018, "Beware of the Naked Man".

Export Sales Announcements

2021-01-29T08:07:16-06:00January 29th, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA/FAS announced sales of: Corn 2020-2021 2,108,000 mt (83.0 mb) to China Putting total sales for this week at 242.5 mb Soybeans 2021-2022 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) also to China

Export Sales Announcements

2021-01-28T08:09:03-06:00January 28th, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA/FAS announced corn sales of 1,700,000 mt (66.9 mb) to China and 213,600 mt (8.4 mb) to unknown destinations, both for 2020-2021. This has been a big week for corn sales to China and unknown destinations, certainly fitting with what [...]

What to Watch

2021-01-28T07:13:38-06:00January 28th, 2021|Quick Takes|

As I was writing Morning Commentary Thursday Morning, I thought of a number of my Rules and Theories that could come into play over the coming days, weeks, and months. Rules Rule #4A: A market that can't go down, won't [...]

WIBW Radio Ag Issues Program

2021-01-27T09:39:07-06:00January 27th, 2021|Quick Takes|

As my friends have always told me, I have a great face for radio. With that in mind, here is the link to Wednesday morning's WIBW Radio (Topeka, KS) Ag Issues program: https://t.co/zBkHVWZJOj?amp=1  I've worked with the folks at WIBW [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2021-01-27T08:10:38-06:00January 27th, 2021|Quick Takes|

And here's some of the "Why" to Tuesday's commercial buying "What": USDA/FAS announced sales of: Corn 2020-2021 680,000 mt (26.8 mb)to China. Soybeans 2020-2021 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) to China 126,500 mt (4.6 mb) to unknown destinations

Export Sales Announcements

2021-01-26T08:11:56-06:00January 26th, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA/FAS announced corn sales of 2020-2021 1,360,000 mt (53.5 mb) to China 102,800 mt (4.0 mb) to unknown destinations This is what the commercial-led rally in corn Sunday night through most of Monday was implying. Keep in mind, though, commercial [...]

Soybean Bargain Hunting

2021-01-25T09:03:24-06:00January 25th, 2021|Quick Takes|

As I mentioned in Morning Commentary, commercial activity was going to be important following last week's meltdown in the grain and oilseed complex. The early results in soybeans show this group has returned as active buyers, with nearby contracts gaining [...]

Keep an Eye on Livestock

2021-01-22T09:13:53-06:00January 22nd, 2021|Quick Takes|

Early activity in the livestock sector is a bit more subdued than I was expecting Friday morning. Both live and feeder cattle markets are seeing light commercial buying interest so far, though we still have some hurdles to navigate before [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2021-01-22T08:06:58-06:00January 22nd, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA announced export sales of: Soybeans 136,000 mt (5.0 mb) of 2020-2021 soybeans to China Grain sorghum (Milo) 123,000 mt (4.8 mb) of grain sorghum to China 60,000 mt (2.4 mb) for 2020-2021 63,000 mt (also roughly 2.4 mb) for [...]

Market Questions

2021-01-21T13:45:26-06:00January 21st, 2021|Quick Takes|

Good afternoon everyone. We are looking at adding something new to the website: A Friday afternoon market wrap (not rap) video. Here's what I need you to do: Just as you do now, send me some questions or topics you'd [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2021-01-21T08:22:21-06:00January 21st, 2021|Quick Takes|

Export Sales: USDA announced export sales of soybeans of 136,000 mt (5.0 mb) to China and 163,290 mt (6.0 mb) to Mexico, both for 2020-2021. Also, 138,000 mt (5.1 mb) of hard red winter wheat to Nigeria for 2021-2022 and [...]

An Early Morning Question

2021-01-20T07:48:53-06:00January 20th, 2021|Quick Takes|

Just received a message that made me chuckle hard enough, I have to share. A good friend from Minnesota just asked, "Corn and beans won't go to $3.50 and $8.50 today, will they?" He attached a smiley face letting me [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2021-01-19T08:06:28-06:00January 19th, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA announced export sales of: Corn 2020-2021 128,000 mt (5.0 mb) to Japan 100,000 mt (3.9 mb) to Israel Soybeans: 2021-2022 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) to China.

Ag Markets Closed

2021-01-17T19:02:19-06:00January 17th, 2021|Quick Takes|

This is a reminder ag markets remain closed Sunday evening due to Monday's US Federal holiday. They will open again Monday evening at 7 (CT).

Export Sales Announcements

2021-01-15T08:04:06-06:00January 15th, 2021|Quick Takes|

USDA announced export sales of 110,000 mt (4.3 mb) of 2020-2021 corn to Mexico  318,000 mt (11.7 mb) of 2021-2022 soybeans to unknown destinations

Soybeans: A Clear Picture

2021-01-14T10:17:45-06:00January 14th, 2021|Quick Takes|

One of the things I truly appreciate about audience we have all collectively built together on this website, is the conversations surrounding real market indicators. I just got off the phone with a gentleman following a discussion about real fundamental [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2021-01-13T08:28:38-06:00January 13th, 2021|Quick Takes|

My apologies. There were export sales announced Wednesday morning. I am having trouble with the USDA/FAS website this week. USDA announced sales of: Soybeans 464,000 mt (17.1 mb) to unknown destinations 396,000 mt (14.6 mb) for 2020-2021 68,000 mt (2.5 [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2021-01-08T08:02:22-06:00January 8th, 2021|Quick Takes|

There were export sales announcements Thursday Soybeans Unknown Destinations 2020-2021: 213,350 mt (7.8 mb) 2021-2022: 130,000 mt (4.8 mb) Friday: Soybeans China 2020-2021: 204,000 mt (7.5 mb)

“Man, This is Nuts”

2021-01-05T11:01:13-06:00January 5th, 2021|Quick Takes|

A friend just sent me this message, and he is absolutely right. Soybeans are 3.4% higher Corn is up 1.7% Wheat has rallied 2.8% Cotton is up 1.7% Live Cattle have gained 2.5% Feeders are flying 1.7% higher Lean Hogs [...]

A Great Question

2021-01-04T09:39:18-06:00January 4th, 2021|Quick Takes|

I had a great question come in already this morning. Q: What would be the best buy at this time: Bitcoin Tesla Soybeans A: In my opinion, and my son Ben might disagree with me, soybeans are the best buy, [...]

Thank You and Happy New Year

2020-12-31T14:37:27-06:00December 31st, 2020|Quick Takes|

As I get ready to shut the office down for the last time for 2020, I want to take a moment to thank all of you for this last year. It was one of the most difficult I can remember [...]

Wheat: Surprise

2020-12-30T10:24:04-06:00December 30th, 2020|Quick Takes|

I just got off the phone with a reporter friend of mine, Matthew Weaver of Capital Press, and he asked me my thoughts on the wheat complex. I had to be honest with him, saying I am just as surprised [...]

Soybeans: Impressive

2020-12-29T09:09:12-06:00December 29th, 2020|Quick Takes|

Just as Monday's session saw soybeans trade higher overnight before collapsing shortly after the opening bell, contracts pulled off the flip side of the coin Tuesday. After trading lower overnight, contracts stormed out of the gate to impressive double-digit gains [...]

The Suck in Soybeans

2020-12-28T09:08:36-06:00December 28th, 2020|Quick Takes|

The loud sucking sound you hear in the soybean market early Monday is a strong vacuum pulling the market lower. Recall from previous discussions, a Vacuum Trade occurs when a market has posted a strong move, cleaning up all available [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2020-12-28T08:15:30-06:00December 28th, 2020|Quick Takes|

USDA announced export sales of: Soybeans to unknown destinations 233,700 mt (8.6 mb) 2020-2021 marketing year 125,000 mt (4.6 mb) 2021-2022 marketing year Both likely part of last week’s strong move in futures spreads Soybean oil to unknown destinations 33,000 [...]

Weekly Analysis Update

2020-12-27T12:32:34-06:00December 27th, 2020|Quick Takes|

Good afternoon everyone. I hope you are enjoying a good holiday weekend, with another to follow next week. I won't be posting all the Weekly Analysis this weekend, but did want to give you a couple updates: Nearly every market/contract [...]

Gold-Fish

2020-12-21T11:03:27-06:00December 21st, 2020|Quick Takes|

It promises to be an interesting week in gold, with contracts under light pressure midday Monday. Technically, it could be argued the intermediate-term trend is still down, with the short-term uptrend of the last three weeks looking to be Wave [...]

Soybeans and Rule #4A

2020-12-15T11:41:49-06:00December 15th, 2020|Quick Takes|

As we move into the last couple hours of trade Tuesday, the soybean market has posted a solid rally off its early lows. As of 11:30-ish (CT) futures spreads are showing renewed commercial buying interest. As I've said many times, [...]

Update: Weekly Analysis

2020-12-06T09:43:54-06:00December 6th, 2020|Quick Takes|

Now that our app is up and running and ag markets are in the off-season, generally, Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc. is in the process of making Weekly Analysis more relevant. Recall from my latest Weekly Column, "Confidence Man", that market [...]

November Jobs Data

2020-12-04T07:41:21-06:00December 4th, 2020|Quick Takes|

A quick look at the November Jobs data I mentioned in Friday's Morning Commentary: Nonfarm Payroll +245,000 versus the expected +432,000 and last month's +638,000 Unemployment Rate 6.7% versus the expected 6.8% and last month's 6.9% Not much reaction by [...]

Our App is Now Live

2020-12-02T20:46:18-06:00December 2nd, 2020|Quick Takes|

We are very excited to announce that our app is now live in the Apple App store as well as Google Play. We would like to thank everyone for their patience as we know how important convenience to our information [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2020-11-30T08:07:03-06:00November 30th, 2020|Quick Takes|

Friday, November 27: USDA announced a sale of 302,160 mt (11.9 mb) of corn to Mexico. Monday, November 30: USDA announced corn sales to unknown destinations of: 140,000 mt (5.5 mb) 204,000 mt (8.0 mb)

Welcome Back!

2020-11-30T05:13:01-06:00November 30th, 2020|Quick Takes|

Good morning everyone and welcome back to what should be a busy week on this website. I want to thank all of you as I was able to take a few days off through the weekend. Feeling refreshed as we [...]

Happy Thanksgiving!

2020-11-25T09:59:57-06:00November 25th, 2020|Quick Takes|

Hi again everyone. I wanted to let you know this will be my last scheduled post of the day, as I'm planning on taking the rest of the week off to spend time with family. I'll still be around if [...]

Commercial Buying in Beans

2020-11-10T09:52:25-06:00November 10th, 2020|Quick Takes|

Tuesday morning has seen an impressive round of commercial buying in soybeans, with the January issue gaining 2 cents on March, while fractional gains are being registered in deferred issues. Trade volume is solid with 60,000 contracts of January changing [...]

Export Sales Announcements

2020-11-06T08:11:03-06:00November 6th, 2020|Quick Takes|

There were a number of sales announced by USDA/FAS Friday morning: Soybeans 132,000 mt (4.9 mb) to China 272,150 mt (10.0 mb) to unknown destinations Corn 206,900 mt (8.1 mb) to unknown destinations Soybean Oil 30,000 mt to South Korea [...]

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