Live Cattle futures spreads: Neutral-to-Bullish

  • The December-February closed November at (-$2.275)
    • as compared to the end of October settlement at $2.00
    • and the previous 5-year high weekly close for the last week of November at (-$1.05)
    • with the previous 5-year average weekly close for the last week of November at (-$2.55)
  • The February-April closed November at (-$1.70)
    • as compared to the end of October settlement at $0.95
    • and the previous 5-year high weekly close for the last week of November at (-$2.15)
  • The April-June closed November at $5.15
    • as compared to the end of October settlement at $7.325
    • and the previous 5-year high weekly close for the last week of November at $8.65
    • with the previous 5-year average weekly close for the last week of November at $4.075
  • Bottom Line: Due to commercial selling in live cattle during November, seen across the board in the spreads, the fundamental read dropped from Bullish to Neutral-to-Bullish heading into the winter season. Time will tell if this is the first peek at long-term herd expansion.

Feeder Cattle futures spreads: Bullish

  • The January-March closed November at $6.125
    • as compared to the end of October settlement at $4.775
    • and the previous 5-year high weekly close for the last week of November at $0.85 from 2024
    • Indicating feeder cattle fundamentals were more bullish than a year ago.
  • The March-April closed November at $1.225
    • as compared to the end of October settlement at $1.40
    • and the previous 5-year high weekly close for the last week of November at (-$1.225) from 2024
    • indicating longer-term fundamentals are also more bullish than a year ago.
  • Bottom Line: Nearly every aspect of the feeder cattle market remains volatile. However, at face value, if we can believe what we see, futures spreads are telling us supply and demand is more bullish than a year ago.

Lean Hogs futures spreads: Neutral-to-Bullish

  • The December-February closed November at (-$0.40)
    • as compared to the end of October settlement at (-$1.25)
    • and the previous 5-year high weekly close for the last week of November at $0.325
    • with the previous 5-year average weekly close for the last week of November at (-$4.50)
  • The February-April closed November at (-$3.90)
    • as compared to the end of October settlement at (-$3.70)
    • and the previous 5-year average weekly close for the last week of November at (-$4.375)
    • with the previous 5-year high weekly close for the last week of November at (-$2.875)
  • The April-June closed November at (-$11.85)
    • as compared to the end of October settlement at (-$11.625)
    • and the previous 5-year average weekly close for the last week of November at (-$11.375)
  • Bottom Line: Lean hogs saw some commercial selling in the deferred spreads, but not enough to change the view of supply and demand from neutral heading into the winter quarter.