I’ve said for many months (years?) the commodity complex has become easily manipulated by US White House announcements and not necessarily the Truth Social media posts. These lead to manufactured headlines designed to trigger algorithms. In a recent piece by my friend Myra Saefong, she used the quote, “The headline roulette is reaching the point where it is becoming exhausting for oil traders”. Headline roulette. That is the best I have heard the situation described, making analysis generally useless.
Brent crude (QA): Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investors went long the market during January or February on bullish technical breakouts. The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation telling us long-term fundamentals are bullish.
WTI crude oil (CL): It’s possible investors went long the market during January or February on bullish technical breakouts. The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation telling us long-term fundamentals are bullish.
Distillates (HO, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.): Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors and hedgers may have gone long during February, or covered cash needs, when the spot-month contract moved above the previous high of $2.74 from June 2025. The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation telling us long-term fundamentals are bullish.
RBOB gasoline (RB): Theoretical Positions: Investors could be long the market near the January 2026 settlement of $1.9422. I’m not reading anything into what looks to be a bearish 2-month reversal at the end of May. The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation telling us long-term fundamentals are bullish.
Natural Gas (NG): It could still be argued the spot-month contract posted a Wave 5 high during December 2025 as part of a key bearish reversal. If so, then the market would be considered in a major downtrend, from a technical point of view. Theoretical Positions: I would think investors would be on the sidelines, but it is hard to say.
