December Corn: After completing a bearish key reversal during September, confirming the move to a major (long-term) downtrend, the Dec26 contract extended this trend to a low of $4.4750 during October before closing at $4.4775, down 53.0 cents (10.58%) for the month.
Theoretical Positions:
- Hedgers:
- See Weekly Analysis: Grains (both Futures and Cash)
- Sales of 2026, 2027, and 2028 expected production could’ve been made near the September settlement.
- Investors:
- Long Dec26 futures were rolled to Dec27 during August at an inverse of 5.0 cents
- Putting long Dec27 at approximately $5.17
- These positions would be sold at or above the September settlement of $5.1725
- New short Dec27 futures positions could’ve been made at or above the September close based on the completion of a bearish spike reversal on the long-term monthly chart.
- Long Dec26 futures were rolled to Dec27 during August at an inverse of 5.0 cents
November Soybeans: Using the Horseshoe Proximity (Close is close enough) discussed last month, the Nov26 futures contract completed a bearish spike reversal at the end of September, confirming the move to a major (long-term) downtrend. Nov26 extended this trend to a low of $12.1250 during October before closing at $12.2225, down 70.75 cents (5.47%) for the month.
Theoretical Positions:
- Long-term investors were long Nov26 from the October 2025 bullish breakout (Nov26 closed at $11.o6). These positions were liquidated near the September settlement of $12.93. Additionally, new short futures positions in Nov27 were established near the September close of $12.60. The Nov27 issue finished October priced at $12.09, down 51.0 cents (4.05%) for the month.
- Hedgers could’ve sold 2026 and 2027 expected production near September settlements.
National Corn Index: After completing a bearish spike reversal during September confirming the major trend had turned down, the Index extended its trend to a low of $4.0986 during October. This was down 50.12 cents (10.9%) for the month. The previous monthly low is $3.7616 from June 2026.
National Soybean Index: After completing a bearish spike reversal during September confirming the major trend had turned down, the Index extended its trend to a low of $11.6197 during October before finishing at $11.6413. This was down 74.67 cents (6.03%) for the month.
National SRW Index: After completing a bearish spike reversal during September confirming the major trend had turned down, the Index extended its trend to a low of $5.3298 during October before finishing at $5.3759. This was down 67.98 cents (11.23%) for the month.
