Cotton (Dec contract Only): The December 2026 futures contract extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of 77.05 before closing October at 77.83, down 0.69 (0.88%) for the month. The previous monthly low is 75.17 from June. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors might’ve gone long Dec26 near 68.35, the close of December 2025 as the market posted a new 4-month high. These positions could’ve been liquidated in early September near 86.33 based on the key reversal on the Dec26 weekly chart, or long-term near the September settlement of 78.52. Investors would be short long-term at those same prices. Additionally, investors will be looking to roll those positions to Dec27 during November. The Dec26-Dec27 futures spread closed October at an inverse of 0.48 cents, its lowest daily close since March 6.
Coffee (KCY00, Cash Index): The Index consolidated during October before closing at 348.09, down 5.60 (1.58%) for the month. The Index completed a bullish key reversal during June, confirming the move to a major uptrend signaled by monthly stochastics establishing a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% at the end of April. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors short the market from the September 2025 monthly settlement of 387.99 would’ve covered those positions and gone long at the June settlement of 342.21.
Cocoa (CCY00, Cash Index): Cocoa remains in a major uptrend. The Index closed October at $5,454, up $116 (2.17%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors who were short the market (futures, ETFs, etc.) may have covered these positions near the March settlement of 3,130 and gone long at that same price.
Sugar (SBY00, Cash Index): The index extended its major uptrend to a high of 21.14 before closing October at 19.37, up 0.75 (4.03%) for the month. The uptrend is based on a double bottom pattern between the April 2026 low of 13.42 and June low of 13.36, the latter part of a bullish spike reversal. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors could be long from near the March settlement of 15.54 and/or June settlement of 14.80. If both, the average long position would be 15.17.
Orange Juice (OJY00, Cash Index): Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are on the sidelines at the end of October.
