Live Cattle (Cash Index): The Index extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $245.59 during February before closing the month at that mark. However, the Index also looks to have a price gap between the February low of $240 and the January high of $235.29, leaving the door open to a possible island top at some point. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely still long or on the sidelines.
Feeder Cattle (Nearby futures): Even though the Index posted a new all-time high $377.30 during February, the fact it closed lower for the month keeps the idea of a major 3-wave downtrend (Elliott Wave) in place. If so, the Index would be expected to take out the Wave A (first wave) low of $319.70 from November 2025. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors likely sold the market near the November settlement based on the completed bearish key reversal. Otherwise, short positions could be established near the February settlement of $372.79.
Lean Hogs (Cash Index): The Index completed a bullish key reversal during January, confirming a move to a new major uptrend. This coincided with a bullish crossover by monthly stochastics below the oversold level of 20% meaning the market signaled a new uptrend (stochastics) and confirmed the signal (reversal pattern) at January’s close. The Index extended its major uptrend to a high of 89.12 during February before closing the month at that price. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors may have shorted hogs near the new 4-month low of $96.30 during October. If so, then they would’ve bought those positions back near the January settlement of $85.72 and gone long at the same price with sell stops below the January low of $80.39.
