Live Cattle (Cash Index): The Index closed the previous upside gap during March as it fell to a low of $235 before closing the month at $236, down $9.59 (3.9%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely still long or on the sidelines.
Feeder Cattle (Nearby futures): Even though the Index posted a new all-time high $377.30 during February, the fact it closed lower for the month and again at the end of March keeps the idea of a major 3-wave downtrend (Elliott Wave) in place. If so, the Index would be expected to take out the Wave A (first wave) low of $319.70 from November 2025. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors likely sold the market near the November settlement based on the completed bearish key reversal. Otherwise, short positions could’ve been established near the February settlement of $372.79. The Index closed March at $365.93, down $5.89 (1.6%).
Lean Hogs (Cash Index): The Index completed a bullish key reversal during January, confirming a move to a new major uptrend. This coincided with a bullish crossover by monthly stochastics below the oversold level of 20% meaning the market signaled a new uptrend (stochastics) and confirmed the signal (reversal pattern) at January’s close. The Index extended its major uptrend to a high of 92.04 during March before closing at $90.76, up $1.07 (1.2%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors may have shorted hogs near the new 4-month low of $96.30 during October. If so, then they would’ve bought those positions back near the January settlement of $85.72 and gone long at the same price with sell stops below the January low of $80.39.
