The S&P 500 ($INX) to its major (long-term) uptrend during April, extending the move to a new all-time high of 7,219.83 before closing at 7,209.01, up 10.4% for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors likely bought back into the Index durning April.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) still looks to be in a major downtrend based on the new 4-month low posted during March. The April rally could be considered Wave B (second wave) of a 3-wave downtrend pattern (Elliott Wave Theory). Theoretical Positions: Investors are likely moving money to other sectors.
The Nasdaq ($NASX) returned to its major uptrend during April, extending the move to a new all-time high of 24,935.59 before closing at 24,892.31, up 15.3% for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors likely bought back into the Index durning April.
The US 10-year T-note (ZN): I am still not getting a good read on the major trend of the 10-year T-note. After posting what looked to be a bullish breakout during February, the market completed a bearish outside month during March before consolidating during April. Theoretical Positions: Investors are likely still on the sidelines heading into May.
The Fed Fund Futures Forward Curve shows the market is not expecting a change in the Fed fund rate through late 2027. Note futures contracts are priced between 96.50 and 96.25, reflecting the implied interest rate range of 3.5% to 3.75%. However, there is no meeting on the schedule for May (purple dashed line), with the next meeting in June (16 and 17) expected to be led by a new Fed Chair. We’ll see if the forward curve changes between now and then.
