The US dollar index ($DXY) confirmed a new major (long-term) uptrend by completing a bullish key reversal during March. Theoretical Positions: If still short heading into March, investors would’ve covered those positions and gone long near the monthly close of 99.96.
The Euro (^EURUSD) still looks to be in a major sideways, to possible down trend. The euro rallied during April, closing at 1.17315, up 1.55% for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors still long the euro, may have been stopped out during March. If so, investors could be looking for an opportunity to get short on a recovery rally.
The euro/Canadian dollar (^EURCAD) remains in a major downtrend, closing April at 1.59331, down 0.88% for the month. Support is at the March low of 1.56133. Theoretical Positions: Short positions could’ve been established near the October 2025 settlement of 1.61659 with additional positions below the December low of 1.60618. This puts the average short position at roughly 1.61135.
The Canadian dollar (^CADUSD) remains in a major uptrend. However, the loonie continues to consolidate below its high of 0.7471 (January 2026) and above its recent low of 0.71604 (March 2026). Theoretical Positions: Investors would be long the Canadian dollar from the close of February 2025 at roughly 0.69125, adding positions along the way as the loonie took out previous high marks, including January above the previous peak of 0.73854 from June 2025. The Canadian dollar closed April at 0.73628, up 2.45% for the month.
The Brazilian real (^BRLUSD) extended its major uptrend to a high of 0.20198 during April, its highest mark since March 2024. Technically, the real tested its downtrend line dating back to April 2022 while monthly stochastics (long-term momentum study) are above 90% showing the market to be overbought. Theoretical Positions: Investors might’ve gone long near the January 2025 settlement of 0.17188 based on a bullish 2-month reversal. Investors could be growing cautious given monthly stochastics are deep in overbought territory. A look at the weekly chart shows support, and a possible sell-trigger level at the recent low of 0.19752.
