Cotton (CTY00, Cash Index): The Index completed a bullish key reversal during February meaning the major (long-term) trend had turned up. The Index extended its major uptrend to a high of 85.27 during May before settling at 73.65, down 5.55 cents (7.0%) higher for the month, completing a bearish spike reversal. The Index extended its new major downtrend to a low of 68.10 before settling June at 70.99, down 2.66 (3.6%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors could’ve bought (futures, ETFs) near the February settlement of 63.61 cents and sold at the May settlement of 73.65. This group would now be short at the same price. The Index closed June at 70.99.
Coffee (KCY00, Cash Index): The Index confirmed a new major uptrend as it completed a bullish key reversal during June. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors short the market from the September 2025 monthly settlement of 387.99 could look at covering those positions near the April close of 336.41. This would lock in a profit of roughly 51.55. Long positions could be established near the June close of 342.21 with sell stops below the June low of 297.49.
Cocoa (CCY00, Cash Index): The Index confirmed a new major uptrend with a move to a new 4-month high beyond 4,709 (May). Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors who were short the market (futures, ETFs, etc.) may have covered these positions near the March settlement of 3,130. It’s possible some may have gone long at that same price, with sell stops below the February low. Additional longs could’ve been established as the Index took out the previous 4-month high, creating an average position of 3,920. The Index settled June at 5,002.
Sugar (SBY00, Cash Index): This continues to be a confusing market, filled with bullish and bearish reversal patterns. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are either on the sidelines, or taking another shot at going long the market near the June settlement of 14.80 based on a bullish spike reversal.
Orange Juice (OJY00, Cash Index): The Index completed a bullish spike reversal at the end of June. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors may have covered previous short positions at the end of December. New-longs could be established near the June settlement of 175.00 based on the completion of a bullish spike reversal and monthly stochastics indicating the market is long-term oversold.
