Live Cattle (Nearby futures): The market extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of $221.70 before the August issue closed July at $231.75, down $10.675 for the month. The downtrend began with the bearish key reversal during May 2026. Theoretical Positions: Investors long the market (futures, ETFs, etc.) based on continued bullish real fundamentals could’ve liquidated those positions and gone short near the May settlement of $239.00. The August futures contract closed May at $239.05 and July at $231.75. Some may have rolled shorts to the October contract with the spread near $6.00 during July. If still short August, look to roll near last month’s settlement of the spread at $4.50.
Feeder Cattle (Nearby futures): The August contract consolidated during July before closing at $348.025, down $16.575 (4.6%) for the month. For now, I’ll continue to call the market in a major sideways trend between the October 2025 high of $382.80 and November 2025 low of $299.525. Fundamentally the market remains bullish based on monthly closes for the August-September and September-October futures spreads (see Supply and Demand Commentary). Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely on the sidelines.
Lean Hogs (Nearby futures): Despite the lower monthly close to July, with the August issue finishing at $84.85, down $13.35 (13.6%) for the month, I’m still not getting a good read on the major trend. For now it looks to be sideways between converging trend lines. Note the nearby issue posted a low of $82.10 during July, a test of the lower trend line calculated last month at $82.20. Much of this was due to the expiration of the lightly traded July issue and roll to the more heavily traded August. Still, from a technical point of view, the market seems to have completed a bullish spike reversal. Unfortunately, the August issue goes off the board this month, replaced by the October that closed July at $84.85. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely on the sidelines, waiting for a clearer signal. Keep in mind futures spread were just as mixed at the end of July (see Supply and Demand Commentary).
