December Corn: The corn market is filled with a number of conflicting signals. Fundamentally the market remained neutral at the end of July (see Supply and Demand Commentary). As for the Dec26 futures contract, the minor (short-term) trend is down while the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. As for its major (long-term) trend, I’ll call it up for another month with the selloff during May and June looking to be Wave 4 of a 5-wave uptrend. If this holds true, Dec26 should take out its May high of $5.0650. A review of the long-term analysis: December futures completed bullish spike reversals during August 2024 and 2025. The Dec26 contract extended the major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $5.0650 during May before closing at $4.75, down 19.25 cents (3.9%) for the month. This completed a bearish spike reversal, indicating a Wave 3 peak within a 5-wave uptrend pattern (Elliott Wave Theory). This is a similar pattern to what was seen at the end of February 2025 with the Wave 1 peak.
Theoretical Positions:
- Hedgers:
- See Weekly Analysis: Grains (both Futures and Cash)
- Investors:
- Long Dec26 futures at roughly $4.6225
- Dec26 closed July at $4.64, up 28.0 cents (6.4%) for the month
- Dec26 $5.00 call options were sold at approximately 26 4/8 cents (May 26)
- and bought back near the weekly close of 9 6/8 cents (Friday, June 18)
- Lowering the long Dec26 price to roughly $4.4550
- Long Dec26 futures at roughly $4.6225
- Long-term investors will want to still be long Dec corn based on the bullish spike reversal at the end of August 2024 on the continuous monthly chart confirming the end of the previous long-term downtrend from May 2022. Another bullish spike reversal was completed at the end of August 2025. The Dec26 futures position will need to be rolled to Dec27.
November Soybeans: Nov26 extended the market’s (Nov soybeans only) major uptrend to a high of $12.5650 before closing July at $11.8750, up 43.75 cents (3.8%) for the month. Fundamentally the market remains bullish, based on futures spreads (see Supply and Demand Commentary). Recall monthly stocahstics completed a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80% at the end of May signaling the major trend should turn down. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely long Nov26 from the October 2025 bullish breakout (Nov26 closed at $11.o6). Sell stops would be below the June low of $11.2175. The Nov26-Nov27 spread closed July at an inverse of 33.25 cents after posting a monthly high of an inverse of 63.5 cents inverse. If staying long the futures, or until sell stops are triggered, we need to look to roll forward at a strong inverse.
Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN): I don’t know what to call the major trend for CORN after completing a bearish spike reversal during May and extending its selloff to $16.36 during June, its lowest prices since March 2021. July saw CORN rally, hitting a high of $18.43 before finishing at $17.65, up $0.90 (5.4%). Theoretical Positions: CORN could’ve been bought near the August 2024 settlement of $17.70. Some may have added longs, or initiated initial positions near the August 2025 settlement of $17.57 based on a bullish spike reversal. A new round of buys could’ve been made near the October settlement of $17.79. All these combined would put the average position near $17.75. Longs were likely stopped out as CORN took out its previous lows during June, putting long-term investors on the sidelines.
The Teucrium Soybean Fund (SOYB) extended its major uptrend to a high of $26.37 during July before closing at $25.16, up $0.76 (3.1%) for the month. SOYB looks to be getting top-heavy as it tests the October 2023 low of $26.59, old support turned resistance. Theoretical Positions: Investors might’ve bought near the December 2024 settlement of $21.48. Some may have added long positions near the April 2025 settlement of $21.47. Additional longs could’ve been added near the October 2025 settlement, creating an average price of $22.13. Sell stops would be below the June low of $23.86.
The Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) extended its major uptrend to a high of $26.08 before closing July at $23.81, up $1.78 (8.1%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors could’ve bought WEAT near the January close of $20.97. Sell stops would be below the June 2026 low of $21.64.
