Cotton (Dec contract Only): The December futures contract moved to a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend with a bearish key reversal the first week of September. This was followed by the completion of a bearish 2-month reversal on the Dec-only contuinous monthly chart as September came to a close. Dec26 posted a low of 78.11 before settling at 78.52, down 14.62 (15.7%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors might’ve gone long Dec26 near 68.35, the close of December 2025 as the market posted a new 4-month high. These positions could’ve been liquidated in early September near 86.33 based on the key reversal on the Dec26 weekly chart, or long-term near the September settlement of 78.52.
Coffee (KCY00, Cash Index): The Index moved lower during September before closing at 353.69, up 29.58 (7.7%) for the month. The Index completed a bullish key reversal during June, confirming the move to a major uptrend signaled by monthly stochastics establishing a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% at the end of April. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors short the market from the September 2025 monthly settlement of 387.99 would’ve covered those positions and gone long at the June settlement of 342.21.
Cocoa (CCY00, Cash Index): Despite the lower monthly close, Cocoa still looks to be in a major uptrend. The Index fell to a low of $5,307 before closing at $5,338, down $1,262 (19.1%) for the month. Some might consider this a bearish 2-month reversal, but I see it as the beginning of a possible Wave 2 within the 5-wave major uptrend pattern. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors who were short the market (futures, ETFs, etc.) may have covered these positions near the March settlement of 3,130 and gone long at that same price.
Sugar (SBY00, Cash Index): The index extended its major uptrend to a high of 18.76 before closing September at 18.62, up 0.83 (4.7%) for the month. The uptrend is based on a double bottom pattern between the April 2026 low of 13.42 and June low of 13.36, the latter part of a bullish spike reversal. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors could be long from near the March settlement of 15.54 and/or June settlement of 14.80. If both, the average long position would be 15.17.
Orange Juice (OJY00, Cash Index): The index consolidated during September before closing at 151.45, up 34.95 (30%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors could look at buying orange juice near the September settlement based on what could be interpreted as a bullish 2-month reversal. If so, sell stops would be placed below the August low of 116.50. Monthly stochastic continue to indicate the market is oversold.
