Brent crude (QA): Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investors went long the market during January or February on bullish technical breakouts. The market completed another bullish outside range during July. The spot-month contract extended the rally to a high of $110.41 during September before closing at $98.03, up $7.54 (8.33%) for the month.
WTI crude oil (CL): It’s possible investors went long the market during January or February on bullish technical breakouts. The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation telling us long-term fundamentals are bullish. The market completed a bullish spike reversal during July before closing September at $90.42, up $4.66 (5.43%) for the month.
Distillates (HO, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.): The spot-month contract hit a new all-time high of $5.2842 during September before closing at $4.6881, up 27.75 cents (6.29%) for the month. The national average cash price also hit a record high of $6.5276 during September. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors and hedgers may have gone long during February, or covered cash needs, when the spot-month contract moved above the previous high of $2.74 from June 2025. The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation telling us long-term fundamentals are bullish.
RBOB gasoline (RB): After completing what looks to be a bearish 2-month reversal during May, the spot-month contract extended its major downtrend to a low of $2.7975 during August. September saw the spot-month contract rally to a high of $3.6547 before closing at $3.2605, up 18.35 cents (5.96%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors long the market near the January 2026 settlement of $1.9422 may have liquidated those positions at May settlement of $3.0344. New short positions may have been established at the same price. The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation telling us long-term fundamentals are bullish. Those holding short positions need to be careful.
Natural Gas (NG): The market remains in a major sideways trend while monthly stochastics hold below the oversold level of 20%. Theoretical Positions: Investors might go long natural gas near the August close of $2.935 based on the completion of a bullish spike reversal. The spot-month contract closed September at $3.026, up $0.091 (3.1%) for the month.
