Gold (Cash Index): While the Index consolidated during September, it remains in a major (long-term) downtrend that began with a bearish outside monthly range during March. The Index closed September at $4,156.87, down $292.16 (6.57%) for the month. Central banks from around the world continue to buy, providing support to the cash market. This could keep the previous low of $3,945.52 from this past June as major support. However, monthly stochastics remain above the oversold level of 20% indicating the market has time and space to move lower. Theoretical Positions: Investors would’ve shorted the market at the March close of $4,677.07 based on the completion of a bearish outside month. Additional short positions could’ve been established as the index took out its previous 4-month low of $4,100.32, putting the average short near $4,388.69.
Silver (Cash Index): The Cash Silver Index confirmed a major downtrend at the end of March before posting a new 4-month low during June. The Index consolidated during September before closing at $60.4019, down $6.1524 (9.24%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors might’ve sold the market near the March settlement of $75.13 based on the completion of a bearish outside month with additional shorts established at the new 4-month low of $61.03, putting the average short position at roughly $68.08. Monthly stochastics remained above the oversold level of 20% indicating the Index has time and space to move lower.
Copper (Cash Index): The copper Index extended its major uptrend to a high of $6.8050 before falling to a low of $6.3295 and closing at $6.5570, down $0.031 (0.47%) for the month. This completed a bearish key reversal, confirming a move to a major downtrend. Meanwhile, monthly stochastics established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80% meaning the Index both signaled and confirmed the new major downtrend. Theoretical Positions: Investors may have established long positions a number of times over the past few years. These positions could’ve been liquidated near the June settlement of $6.1955. Investors would now go short the Index near the September settlement.
Palladium (Spot futures): Palladium still looks to be in a major downtrend. However, monthly stochastics moved below the oversold level of 20% while the spot-month futures contract finds support near the previous low monthly close of $1,200 from June. Theoretical Positions: Investors might be looking for an opportunity to go long the market.
Platinum (Spot futures): The market still looks to be in a major downtrend. However, platinum seems to be finding support near the 50% retracement level of its previous uptrend at $1,596.00. Monthly stochastics above the oversold level of 20% indicate there is still room to the downside, with the 61.8% retracement level at $1,414.40. Theoretical Positions: Investors may have established long positions a number of times since the June 2025 breakout monthly close of $1,334.00. These positions might’ve been stopped out and gone short at the May settlement of $1,911.10.
