Cotton (CTY00, Cash Index): The Index completed a bullish key reversal during February meaning the major (long-term) trend turned up. However, the Index also completed a bearish spike reversal during May, possibly bringing a quick end to the major uptrend. Much will depend on the recovery rally that might’ve begun during July. The Index closed at 76.75, up 5.76 cents (8.1%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors could’ve bought (futures, ETFs) near the February settlement of 63.61 cents. If still long, sell stops would be below the June low 68.10.
Coffee (KCY00, Cash Index): The Index extended its major uptrend to a high of 415.66 during July before closing at 372.91, up 30.70 cents (9.0%) for the month. Note the Index completed a bullish key reversal during June, confirming the move to a major uptrend signaled by monthly stochastics establishing a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% at the end of April. The July close off the monthly high opens the door to possible selling over the coming months, what would be considered a Wave 2 of the 5-wave uptrend. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors short the market from the September 2025 monthly settlement of 387.99 would’ve covered those positions and gone long at the June settlement of 342.21.
Cocoa (CCY00, Cash Index): The Index posted extended its major uptrend to a high of $6,065 before closing July at $5,206, up $204 (4.1%). The settlement off the high sets the stage for a potential Wave 2 selloff. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors who were short the market (futures, ETFs, etc.) may have covered these positions near the March settlement of 3,130. It’s possible some may have gone long at that same price, with sell stops below the February low.
Sugar (SBY00, Cash Index): Despite the lower monthly close to July, the Index finished at 14.56, down 0.24 (1.6%) for the month, Sugar still looks to be in a major (uptrend). This is based on a potential double bottom pattern between the April 2026 low of 13.42 and June low of 13.36, the latter part of a bullish spike reversal. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors could be long from near the March settlement of 15.54 and/or June settlement of 14.80. If both, the average long position would be 15.17.
Orange Juice (OJY00, Cash Index): I’m not getting a good read on the major trend for orange juice. The Cash Index closed July at 136.30, down 38.7 cents (22.1%). Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely on the sidelines.
