I’ve said for many months (years?) the commodity complex has become easily manipulated by US White House announcements and not necessarily the Truth Social media posts. These lead to manufactured headlines designed to trigger algorithms. In a piece by my friend Myra Saefong, she used the quote, “The headline roulette is reaching the point where it is becoming exhausting for oil traders”. Headline roulette. That is the best I have heard the situation described, making analysis generally useless.

Brent crude (QA): Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investors went long the market during January or February on bullish technical breakouts. The market completed a bullish outside range during July.

WTI crude oil (CL): It’s possible investors went long the market during January or February on bullish technical breakouts. The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation telling us long-term fundamentals are bullish. The market completed a bullish spike reversal during July.

Distillates (HO, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.): Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors and hedgers may have gone long during February, or covered cash needs, when the spot-month contract moved above the previous high of $2.74 from June 2025. The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation telling us long-term fundamentals are bullish.

RBOB gasoline (RB): After completing what looks to be a bearish 2-month reversal during May, the spot-month contract consolidated during July before closing at $3.1142, up 21.93 cents (7.6%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors long the market near the January 2026 settlement of $1.9422 may have liquidated those positions at May settlement of $3.0344. New short positions may have been established at the same price. The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation telling us long-term fundamentals are bullish. Those holding short positions need to be careful.

Natural Gas (NG): It could still be argued the spot-month contract posted a Wave 5 high during December 2025 as part of a key bearish reversal. If so, then the market would be considered in a major downtrend, from a technical point of view. However, the market’s monthly stochastics indicate it is oversold long-term, possibly bringing in new algorithm buying. A Wave 8 (end of 3-wave downtrend) low is expected below the Wave 6 price of $2.495. The spot-month contract hit a low of $2.635 during July before closing at $2.747, down 52.8 cents (16.1%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: I would think investors would be on the sidelines, but looking for an opportunity to go long. The previous 4-month high is $3.494 with the 4-month low at $2.495.