Gold (Cash Index): The cash Gold Index consolidated during July, closing at $4,044.76, up $37.17 (0.9%) for the month. The Index confirmed a major (long-term) downtrend with a bearish outside monthly range at the end of March, before consolidating during April and again during May. While investment traders continue to sell, central banks from around the world continue to buy, providing support to the cash market. Theoretical Positions: Investors would’ve shorted the market at the March close of $4,677.07 based on the completion of a bearish outside month. Additional short positions could’ve been established as the index took out its previous 4-month low of $4,100.32, putting the average short near $4,388.69.
Silver (Cash Index): The Cash Silver Index confirmed a major downtrend at the end of March before posting a new 4-month low during June. The Index extended its downtrend to a low of $54.7754 before closing July at $57.6330, down 96.04 cents (1.6%) for the month. Monthly stochastics are nearing the oversold level of 20%. Theoretical Positions: Investors might’ve sold the market near the March settlement of $75.13 based on the completion of a bearish outside month with additional shorts established at the new 4-month low of $61.03, putting the average short position at roughly $68.08.
Copper (Cash Index): The copper Index consolidated during July after completing a bearish spike reversal during June, a pattern that confirmed a move to a new major downtrend. Theoretical Positions: Investors may have established long positions a number of times over the past few years. These positions could’ve been liquidated near the June settlement of $6.1955 with new short positions established. The Index closed July at $6.4615, up 26.6 cents (4.3%) for the month.
Palladium (Spot futures): Despite the higher monthly close, palladium still looks to be in a major downtrend. However, monthly stochastics are nearing the oversold level of 20% while the spot-month futures contract finds support near the 61.8% retracement level of $1,240.33. Theoretical Positions: Investors might be looking for an opportunity to go long the market.
Platinum (Spot futures): Despite the higher monthly close, the market still looks to be in a major downtrend. However, platinum seems to be finding support near the 50% retracement level of its previous uptrend at $1,596.00. Monthly stochastics above the oversold level of 20% indicate there is still room to the downside, with the 61.8% retracement level at $1,414.40. Theoretical Positions: Investors may have established long positions a number of times since the June 2025 breakout monthly close of $1,334.00. These positions might’ve been stopped out and gone short at the May settlement of $1,911.10. The spot-month futures contract closed July at $1,650.30.
