The US dollar index ($DXY) looks to be in a major (long-term) uptrend, though the monthly chart does not show a clear pattern. The greenback posted a new 4-month high during March 2026, possibly triggering buy stops, confirming the uptrend signaled by a monthly stochastics completing a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% at the end of February. Theoretical Positions: Investors would’ve gone long near the March close of 99.96. The Index closed May at 98.91.
The Euro (^EURUSD) still looks to be in a major sideways, to possible down trend. The euro consolidated during May, closing at 1.16597, down 0.6% for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors are either short the euro or looking for a clear long-term sell signal.
The Euro/Canadian dollar (^EURCAD) remains in a major downtrend, despite closing higher at the end of May. Based on Elliott Wave analysis, the ^EURCAD could test its previous high of 1.64678 as a Wave B (second wave) rally within the 3-wave downtrend pattern. Theoretical Positions: Short positions could’ve been established near the October 2025 settlement of 1.61659 with additional positions below the December low of 1.60618. This puts the average short position at roughly 1.61135. The May close was at 1.60867.
The Canadian dollar (^CADUSD) is in a major sideways trend between the previous high of 0.74170 (January 2026) and low of 0.71605 (March 2026). Theoretical Positions: Investors would be long the Canadian dollar from the close of February 2025 at roughly 0.69125, adding positions along the way as the loonie took out previous high marks, including January above the previous peak of 0.73854 from June 2025. Sell stops would be placed below the previous 4-month low of 0.71604 from March 2026.
The Brazilian real (^BRLUSD) extended its major uptrend to a high of 0.20466 during May before closing at 0.19785, down 1.6% for the month. This means the real completed a bearish spike reversal on its monthly chart, coinciding with a bearish crossover by monthly stochastics, meaning the real both signaled and confirmed a new major downtrend. Theoretical Positions: Investors long near the January 2025 settlement of 0.17188, based on a bullish 2-month reversal, would liquidate those positions near the May settlement of 0.19785. This would lock in a gain of approximately 0.02597. New short positions could be established at the same May settlement price.
