Monthly Analysis: Corn

December Corn: Dec24 extended its major uptrend to a high of $4.3425 during October before closing at $4.1075, down 14 cents for the month.

Theoretical Positions:

• Hedgers:
  • See Weekly Analysis: Grains (both Futures and Cash)
• Traders:
  • Short Dec24 futures positions could’ve been covered near the August close of $4.01.
    • And long positions established at the same price
  • These long positions could’ve been rolled to Dec25 at a carry of 25.5 cents on Monday, October 28
    • Dec24 was at (roughly) $4.1325
    • Dec25 was at (roughly) $4.3875 (new long position)
  • Traders may have sold Dec24 $4.00 put options at 20.0 cents
    • If so
      • then these options would’ve been bought back at 2 2/8 cents (September 30)
      • and long futures positions established in Dec24 on a stop at $4.2025
      • creating a long futures position of $4.0250
      • With these positions rolled to Dec25 on Monday, October 28 (see above)

Corn Cash Index: The National Corn Index (NCI, national average cash price) still has not competed a bullish reversal on its monthly chart. Theoretical Positions: End users could’ve extend their coverage based on the NCI’s secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend and the major uptrend in futures.